Primary biliary cholangitis drug evaluation and regulatory approval: Where do we go from here?

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease. The management landscape was transformed 20 years ago with the advent of ursodeoxycholic acid. Up to 40% of patients do not, however, respond adequately to ursodeoxycholic acid and therefore still remain at risk of disease progression to cirrhosis. The introduction of obeticholic acid as a second-line therapy for patients failing ursodeoxycholic acid has improved outcomes for patients with PBC. There remains, however, a need for better treatment for patients at higher risk. The greatest threat facing our efforts to improve treatment in PBC is, paradoxically, the regulatory approval model providing conditional marketing authorization for new drugs based on biochemical markers on the condition that long-term, randomized placebo-controlled outcome trials are performed to confirm efficacy. As demonstrated by the COBALT confirmatory study with obeticholic acid, it is difficult to retain patients in the required follow-on confirmatory placebo-controlled PBC outcome trials when a licensed drug is commercially available. New PBC therapies in development, such as the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor agonists, face even greater challenges in demonstrating outcome benefit through randomized placebo-controlled studies once following conditional marketing authorization, as there will be even more treatment options available. A recently published EMA Reflection Paper provides some guidance on the regulatory pathway to full approval but fails to recognize the importance of real-world data in providing evidence of outcome benefit in rare diseases. Here we explore the impact of the EMA reflection paper on PBC therapy and offer pragmatic solutions for generating evidence of long-term outcomes through real-world data collection.

Greater Transplant-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Obeticholic Acid for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in a Clinical Trial Setting Compared to Real-World External Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA-treated external controls. METHODS: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10-0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12-0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03-1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09-1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21-0.85) including hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment-Induced GLOBE Score Changes Are Associated With Liver Transplantation-Free Survival in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) can improve the GLOBE score. We aimed to assess the association between changes in the GLOBE score (ΔGLOBE) and liver transplantation (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC who were treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). METHODS: Among UDCA-treated patients within the Global PBC cohort, the association between ΔGLOBE (ΔGLOBE 0-1 : during the first year of UDCA, ΔGLOBE 1-2 : during the second year) and the risk of LT or death was assessed through Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 3,775 UDCA-treated patients were included; 3,424 (90.7%) were female, the median age was 54.0 (interquartile range [IQR] 45.9-62.4) years, and the median baseline GLOBE score was 0.25 (IQR -0.47 to 0.96). During a median follow-up of 7.2 (IQR 3.7-11.5) years, 730 patients reached the combined end point of LT or death. The median ΔGLOBE 0-1 was -0.27 (IQR -0.56 to 0.02). Cox regression analyses, adjusted for pretreatment GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-12 , showed that ΔGLOBE was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.81-2.87, P < 0.001). The interaction between baseline GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-1 was not statistically significant ( P = 0.296). The ΔGLOBE 1-2 was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.19, 95% confidence interval 1.67-2.86, P < 0.001), independently from the baseline GLOBE score and the change in GLOBE score during the first year of UDCA. DISCUSSION: UDCA-induced changes in the GLOBE score were significantly associated with LT-free survival in patients with PBC. While the relative risk reduction of LT or death was stable, the absolute risk reduction was heavily dependent on the baseline prognosis of the patient.

Optimizing therapy in primary biliary cholangitis: Alkaline phosphatase at six months identifies one-year non-responders and predicts survival.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and insufficient response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), currently assessed after 1 year, are candidates for second-line therapy. The aims of this study are to assess biochemical response pattern and determine the utility of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) at six months as a predictor of insufficient response. METHODS: UDCA-treated patients in the GLOBAL PBC database with available liver biochemistries at one year were included. POISE criteria were used to assess response to treatment, defined as ALP <1.67 × upper limit of normal (ULN) and normal total bilirubin at one year. Various thresholds of ALP at six months were evaluated to predict insufficient response based on negative predictive value (NPV) and that with nearest to 90% NPV was selected. RESULTS: For the study, 1362 patients were included, 1232 (90.5%) female, mean age of 54 years. The POISE criteria were met by 56.4% (n = 768) of patients at one year. The median ALP (IQR) of those who met POISE criteria compared to those who did not was 1.05 × ULN (0.82-1.33) vs. 2.37 × ULN (1.72-3.69) at six months (p < .001). Of 235 patients with serum ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months, 89% did not achieve POISE criteria (NPV) after one year of UDCA. Of those with insufficient response by POISE criteria at one year, 210 (67%) had an ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months and thus would have been identified early. CONCLUSIONS: We can identify patients for second-line therapy at six months using an ALP threshold of 1.9 × ULN, given that approximately 90% of these patients are non-responders according to POISE criteria.

The power of rotation schedules on the career selection decisions of medical students.

Choosing a career pathway in medicine is a high stakes decision for both medical students and the field of medicine as a whole. While past research has examined how characteristics of the medical student or specialties influence this decision, we introduce temporal elements as novel variables influencing career selection decisions in medicine. Specifically, we investigate how timing and duration of residency options, based on a rotation schedule that medical students have limited control over, influence their career selection decisions. An archival study investigating 5 years of medical student rotation schedules (N = 115) reveals that clinical rotation options appearing earlier and more often in the schedule were more likely to be selected. Moreover, timing and duration of exposure interacted such that residency options appearing later in the schedules were more likely to be selected if they also appeared more often. Conditional logistic regressions using student fixed-effects to control for idiosyncratic medical student differences (i.e., gender, & debt, etc.), and residency fixed-effects to control for idiosyncratic residency differences (income, and lifestyle, etc.), revealed the rotation schedule had a significant impact on residency selection decisions even when controlling for factors typically influencing this decision. Medical students' career decisions are influenced by when and how long different choice options appear in their rotation schedule, especially when they have limited influence over this schedule. The results have implications for healthcare policy by highlighting a tool for adjusting physician workforce composition by broadening exposure to a greater array of career options.

Early Cholangiocarcinoma Detection With Magnetic Resonance Imaging Versus Ultrasound in Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early detection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) among patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is important to identify more people eligible for curative therapy. While many recommend CCA screening, there are divergent opinions and limited data regarding the use of ultrasound or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for early CCA detection, and it is unknown whether there is benefit in testing asymptomatic individuals. Our aims were to assess the diagnostic performances and prognostic implications of ultrasound and MRI-based CCA detection. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This is a multicenter review of 266 adults with PSC (CCA, n = 120) who underwent both an ultrasound and MRI within 3 months. Images were re-examined by radiologists who were blinded to the clinical information. Respectively, MRI had a higher area under the curve compared with ultrasound for CCA detection: 0.87 versus 0.70 for the entire cohort; 0.81 versus 0.59 for asymptomatic individuals; and 0.88 versus 0.71 for those listed for CCA transplant protocol. The absence of symptoms at CCA diagnosis was associated with improved 5-year outcomes including overall survival (82% vs. 46%, log-rank P < 0.01) and recurrence-free survival following liver transplant (89% vs. 65%, log-rank P = 0.04). Among those with asymptomatic CCA, MRI detection (compared with ultrasound) was associated with reduction in both mortality (hazard ratio, 0.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.01-0.96) and CCA progression after transplant listing (hazard ratio, 0.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.01-0.90). These benefits continued among patients who had annual monitoring and PSC for more than 1 year before CCA was diagnosed. CONCLUSIONS: MRI is superior to ultrasound for the detection of early-stage CCA in patients with PSC. Identification of CCA before the onset of symptoms with MRI is associated with improved outcomes.

Machine learning in primary biliary cholangitis: A novel approach for risk stratification.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Machine learning (ML) provides new approaches for prognostication through the identification of novel subgroups of patients. We explored whether ML could support disease sub-phenotyping and risk stratification in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). METHODS: ML was applied to an international dataset of PBC patients. The dataset was split into a derivation cohort (training set) and a validation cohort (validation set), and key clinical features were analysed. The outcome was a composite of liver-related death or liver transplantation. ML and standard survival analysis were performed. RESULTS: The training set was composed of 11,819 subjects, while the validation set was composed of 1,069 subjects. ML identified four clusters of patients characterized by different phenotypes and long-term prognosis. Cluster 1 (n = 3566) included patients with excellent prognosis, whereas Cluster 2 (n = 3966) consisted of individuals at worse prognosis differing from Cluster 1 only for albumin levels around the limit of normal. Cluster 3 (n = 2379) included young patients with florid cholestasis and Cluster 4 (n = 1908) comprised advanced cases. Further sub-analyses on the dynamics of albumin within the normal range revealed that ursodeoxycholic acid-induced increase of albumin >1.2 x lower limit of normal (LLN) is associated with improved transplant-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Unsupervised ML identified four novel groups of PBC patients with different phenotypes and prognosis and highlighted subtle variations of albumin within the normal range. Therapy-induced increase of albumin >1.2 x LLN should be considered a treatment goal.

Potential Association of Doxycycline With the Onset of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis: A Case Series.

BACKGROUND: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is linked to inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). Evidence suggests an association between the gut microbiome and PSC. However, the putative relationship between exposure to antibiotics and onset of PSC has never been reported. We observed 3 cases in which patients without antecedent liver or bowel issues developed symptoms leading to diagnosis of IBD and subsequently PSC after being exposed to doxycycline. We aimed to identify, through the PSC Partners national patient registry, additional cases of PSC in which there is a temporal relationship between exposure to doxycycline and onset of PSC or PSC-IBD. AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY: The etiopathogenesis of PSC remains an enigma. DATA SOURCES: We collected data from patients with PSC and PSC-IBD in which there seemed to be a temporal relationship between exposure to doxycycline and PSC. Time from doxycycline exposure to: (1) onset of PSC or PSC-IBD symptoms and (2) diagnosis of PSC were documented for each patient. Descriptive statistical analyses were performed. RESULTS: We identified 6 additional patients with PSC or PSC-IBD in whom there was a temporal relationship between exposure to doxycycline and onset of PSC or PSC-IBD. The median age of these 9 patients was 20 years, 6 were female, and 7 had ulcerative colitis. The median time from doxycycline exposure to onset of first symptoms was 3 months, and median time from doxycycline exposure to diagnosis of PSC was 15 months. THERAPEUTIC HYPOTHESIS: We describe 9 cases of PSC and PSC-IBD in which there seem to be a temporal relationship between exposure to doxycycline and onset of PSC.

Dynamic Risk Prediction of Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid Among Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis in the USA.

BACKGROUND: Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) remains the first-line therapy for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC); however, inadequate treatment response (ITR) is common. The UK-PBC Consortium developed the modified UDCA Response Score (m-URS) to predict ITR (using alkaline phosphatase [ALP] > 1.67 times the upper limit of normal [*ULN]) at 12 months post-UDCA initiation). Using data from the US-based Fibrotic Liver Disease Consortium, we assessed the m-URS in our multi-racial cohort. We then used a dynamic modeling approach to improve prediction accuracy. METHODS: Using data collected at the time of UDCA initiation, we assessed the m-URS using the original formula; then, by calibrating coefficients to our data, we also assessed whether it remained accurate when using Paris II criteria for ITR. Next, we developed and validated a dynamic risk prediction model that included post-UDCA initiation laboratory data. RESULTS: Among 1578 patients (13% men; 8% African American, 9% Asian American/American Indian/Pacific Islander; 25% Hispanic), the rate of ITR was 27% using ALP > 1.67*ULN and 45% using Paris II criteria. M-URS accuracy was "very good" (AUROC = 0.87, sensitivity = 0.62, and specificity = 0.82) for ALP > 1.67*ULN and "moderate" (AUROC = 0.74, sensitivity = 0.57, and specificity = 0.70) for Paris II. Our dynamic model significantly improved accuracy for both definitions of ITR (ALP > 1.67*ULN: AUROC = 0.91; Paris II: AUROC = 0.81); specificity approached 100%. Roughly 9% of patients in our cohort were at the highest risk of ITR. CONCLUSIONS: Early identification of patients who will not respond to UDCA treatment using a dynamic prediction model based on longitudinal, repeated risk factor measurements may facilitate earlier introduction of adjuvant treatment.

Measurement of Gamma Glutamyl Transferase to Determine Risk of Liver Transplantation or Death in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is a serum marker of cholestasis. We investigated whether serum level of GGT is a prognostic marker for patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). METHODS: We analyzed data from patients with PBC from the Global PBC Study Group, comprising 14 centers in Europe and North America. We obtained measurements of serum GGT at baseline and time points after treatment. We used Cox model hazard ratios to evaluate the association between GGT and clinical outcomes, including liver transplantation and liver-related death. RESULTS: Of the 2129 patients included in our analysis, 281 (13%) had a liver-related clinical endpoint. Mean age at diagnosis was 53 years and 91% of patients were female patients. We found a correlation between serum levels of GGT and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (r = 0.71). Based on data collected at baseline and yearly for up to 5 years, higher serum levels of GGT were associated with lower hazard for transplant-free survival. Serum level of GGT at 12 months after treatment higher than 3.2-fold the upper limit of normal (ULN) identified patients who required liver transplantation or with liver-related death at 10 years with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.70. The risk of liver transplantation or liver-related death in patients with serum level of GGT above 3.2-fold the ULN, despite level of ALP lower than 1.5-fold the ULN, was higher compared to patients with level of GGT lower than 3.2-fold the ULN and level of ALP lower than 1.5-fold the ULN (P < .05). Including information on level of GGT increased the prognostic value of the Globe score. CONCLUSIONS: Serum level of GGT can be used to identify patients with PBC at risk for liver transplantation or death, and increase the prognostic value of ALP measurement. Our findings support the use of GGT as primary clinical endpoint in clinical trials. In patients with low serum level of ALP, a high level of GGT identifies those who might require treatment of metabolic disorders or PBC treatment escalation.

A Comparison of Prognostic Scores (Mayo, UK-PBC, and GLOBE) in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Comparative data on scores that predict outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are scarce. We aimed to assess and compare the prognostic value of the Mayo Risk Score (MRS, 1989 and 1994), UK-PBC score, and GLOBE score in a large international cohort of patients with PBC. METHODS: Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from 7 centers participating in the GLOBAL PBC Study Group were included. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with concordance statistics at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Model for End-stage Liver Disease was included for comparison. Prediction accuracy was assessed by comparing predicted survival and actual survival in Kaplan-Meier analyses. RESULTS: A total of 1,100 ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC were included, with a mean (SD) age of 53.6 (12.0) years, of whom 1,003 (91%) were female. During a median follow-up of 7.6 (interquartile range 4.1-11.7) years, 42 patients underwent liver transplantation, and 127 patients died. At 1 year, the concordance statistic for Model for End-stage Liver Disease was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.72), 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) for the UK-PBC score, 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.81) for the MRS (1989 and 1994), and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84) for the GLOBE score. The GLOBE score showed superior discriminatory performance, but differences were not statistically different. For all scores, discriminatory performance increased in those with bilirubin >0.6 × ULN and advanced fibrosis estimated with Fibrosis-4. The predicted (median) minus observed 5-year transplant-free survival was +0.4% and +2.5% for the MRS (1989) and GLOBE score, respectively. DISCUSSION: All prognostic scores developed for PBC (GLOBE, UK-PBC, and MRS) demonstrated comparable discriminating performance for liver transplantation or death as well as good prediction accuracy.

Safety of fibrates in cholestatic liver diseases.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Off-label use of fibrates in patients with cholestatic liver diseases results in improved biochemical parameters and pruritus; however, their safety in this population has been a concern. This study summarizes safety data for fibrates when used for treatment of cholestatic liver diseases. METHODS: A systematic review of published studies evaluating the use of fibrates for treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) was performed. Electronic databases were searched up to December 2019 for published studies evaluating treatment outcomes associated to fibrates for these 2 diseases. RESULTS: A total of 37 studies were identified, including 31 for PBC and 6 for PSC, with a total of 1107 unique patients treated with fibrates ± ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). Most studies evaluated fenofibrate and bezafibrate, and only 1 study evaluated pemafibrate. There were no studies evaluating gemfibrozil or clofibrate. The most commonly reported adverse events (AEs) were gastrointestinal and musculoskeletal. Elevations of aminotransferases and serum creatinine were reported more commonly in patients treated with UDCA plus fibrates versus UDCA monotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Fibrates appear to be safe and well tolerated in patients with PBC, with a low frequency of AEs. There are scarce data about the safety of these agents for treatment of PSC.

Global incidence, prevalence and features of primary sclerosing cholangitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is an idiopathic, cholestatic liver disease with a diverse range of clinical manifestations. Inter-regional data on PSC are variable, but its global geoepidemiology has not been well-studied. We aimed to examine the worldwide incidence, prevalence and features of PSC and PSC-inflammatory bowel disease (PSC-IBD). METHODS: A systematic search of multiple databases was conducted to identify all original, full-text studies until December 2020 with data regarding the incidence rate (IR) and/or prevalence of PSC. Outcomes were PSC IR, prevalence, features and IBD concurrence. Additionally, a meta-analysis of PSC IR was performed. The study was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021224550). RESULTS: Of the 1003 studies identified, 17 studies spanning three continents were included. PSC IR was 0.60 per 100 000 person-years (PY) (95% confidence interval: 0.37-0.88 per 100 000 PY). In pooled subgroup analysis for studies conducted in Europe and North America, PSC IR was 0.62 and 0.53 per 100 000 PY, respectively. PSC prevalence ranged 0-31.7 per 100 000 persons, with notable inter-regional differences. Mean age at PSC diagnosis was bimodally distributed, with relative peaks at 15 and 35 years. Mean concurrence of IBD with PSC was 50%, with 76% having ulcerative colitis, 17% Crohn's disease and 8% indeterminate/unspecified IBD. CONCLUSION: While considerable heterogeneity exists in the geoepidemiology of PSC, overall, the classical dogmata of male predilection, bimodal distribution of mean age and high PSC-IBD concurrence appear to hold true. Despite a seemingly stable IR over time, further studies are needed to better understand the geoepidemiology of PSC.

Liver Stiffness Measured by Either Magnetic Resonance or Transient Elastography Is Associated With Liver Fibrosis and Is an Independent Predictor of Outcomes Among Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

GOALS: We aimed to describe the diagnostic and prognostic performance of transient elastography (TE) and magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). BACKGROUND: The diagnostic performance of TE and MRE in detecting advanced fibrosis in PBC and in predicting outcomes independent of existing serologic prognostic markers is incompletely understood. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Five hundred thirty-eight consecutive patients with PBC at 3 centers with liver stiffness (LS) measurements by TE (n=286) or MRE (n=332) were reviewed. LS cutoffs for predicting fibrosis stages were determined by receiver operating characteristic curves among those with a liver biopsy (TE, n=63; MRE, n=98). Cox proportional hazard regression modeling was used to identify associations between covariates and hepatic decompensation. RESULTS: The optimal LS thresholds for predicting histologic stage F4 were 14.40 kPa (area under the curve=0.94) for TE and 4.60 kPa (area under the curve=0.82) for MRE. Both TE and MRE outperformed biochemical markers for the prediction of histologic advanced fibrosis. Optimal LS thresholds to predict hepatic decompensation were 10.20 kPa on TE and 4.30 kPa on MRE. LS by TE and MRE (respectively) remained predictors of hepatic decompensation after adjusting for ursodeoxycholic acid responsiveness [hazard ratio (HR), 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05-1.24 and HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.28-2.19] and the GLOBE score (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.07-1.19 and HR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.57-2.78). CONCLUSION: LS measurement with either TE or MRE can accurately detect advanced fibrosis and offers additional prognostic value beyond existing serologic predictive tools.

Number needed to treat with ursodeoxycholic acid therapy to prevent liver transplantation or death in primary biliary cholangitis.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical benefit of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has never been reported in absolute measures. The aim of this study was to assess the number needed to treat (NNT) with UDCA to prevent liver transplantation (LT) or death among patients with PBC. METHODS: The NNT was calculated based on the untreated LT-free survival and HR of UDCA with respect to LT or death as derived from inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses within the Global PBC Study Group database. RESULTS: We included 3902 patients with a median follow-up of 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. The overall HR of UDCA was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.52) and the 5-year LT-free survival without UDCA was 81% (95% CI 79 to 82). The NNT to prevent one LT or death within 5 years (NNT5y) was 11 (95% CI 9 to 13). Although the HR of UDCA was similar for patients with and without cirrhosis (0.33 vs 0.31), the NNT5y was 4 (95% CI 3 to 5) and 20 (95% CI 14 to 34), respectively. Among patients with low alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (≤2× the upper limit of normal (ULN)), intermediate ALP (2-4× ULN) and high ALP (>4× ULN), the NNT5y to prevent one LT or death was 26 (95% CI 15 to 70), 11 (95% CI 8 to 17) and 5 (95% CI 4 to 8), respectively. CONCLUSION: The absolute clinical efficacy of UDCA with respect to LT or death varied with baseline prognostic characteristics, but was high throughout. These findings strongly emphasise the incentive to promptly initiate UDCA treatment in all patients with PBC and may improve patient compliance.

Factors Associated With Progression and Outcomes of Early Stage Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients usually receive a diagnosis of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) at an early stage, based on biochemical analyses. We investigated the proportion of patients who progress to moderate or advanced PBC and factors associated with progression and patient survival. METHODS: We obtained data from 1615 patients (mean age, 55.4 y) with early stage PBC (based on their normal levels of albumin and bilirubin), collected at the time of initial evaluation or treatment, from the Global PBC Study Group database (comprising patients at 19 liver centers in North American and European countries). We collected data from health care evaluations on progression to moderate PBC (abnormal level of bilirubin or albumin) or advanced-stage PBC (abnormal level of both). The median follow-up time was 7.9 years. The composite end point was decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or death. RESULTS: Of the 1615 patients identified with early stage PBC, 904 developed moderate PBC and 201 developed advanced disease over the study period. The proportions of patients who transitioned to moderate PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years were 12.9%, 30.2%, and 45.8%. The proportions of these patients who then transitioned to advanced PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years later were 3.4%, 12.5%, and 16.0%, respectively. During the follow-up period, 236 patients had a clinical event. The proportions of patients with moderate PBC and event-free survival were 97.9%, 95.1%, and 91.5% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, and the proportions of patients with advanced PBC and event-free survival were 90.6%, 71.2%, and 58.3% at 1, 3, and 5 years later, respectively. Variables associated with transition from early to moderate PBC included baseline levels of bilirubin, albumin, and alkaline phosphatase; aspartate to alanine aminotransferase ratio; platelet count; and treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid. Transitions from early to moderate PBC and from moderate to advanced PBC were associated with higher probabilities of a clinical event (time-dependent hazard ratios, 3.0; 95% CI, 2.0-4.5; and 4.6; 95% CI, 3.5-6.2). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of patients with early stage PBC progress to a more severe stage within 5 years. Progression is associated with an increased risk of a clinical event, so surveillance is important for patients with early stage PBC.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment Preferentially Improves Overall Survival Among African Americans With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: We used data from the Fibrotic Liver Disease Consortium to evaluate the impact of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment across race/ethnicity, gender, and clinical status among patients with primary biliary cholangitis. METHODS: Data were collected from "index date" (baseline) through December 31, 2016. Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting was used to adjust for UDCA treatment selection bias. Cox regression, focusing on UDCA-by-risk factor interactions, was used to assess the association between treatment and mortality and liver transplant/death. RESULTS: Among 4,238 patients with primary biliary cholangitis (13% men; 8% African American, 7% Asian American/American Indian/Pacific Island [ASINPI]; 21% Hispanic), 78% had ever received UDCA. The final multivariable model for mortality retained age, household income, comorbidity score, total bilirubin, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, and interactions of UDCA with race, gender, and aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ≥1.1. Among untreated patients, African Americans and ASINPIs had higher mortality than whites (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.67 and aHR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.11-1.76, respectively). Among treated patients, this relationship was reversed (aHR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.51-0.86 and aHR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.67-1.16). Patterns were similar for liver transplant/death. UDCA reduced the risk of liver transplant/death in all patient groups and mortality across all groups except white women with aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ≥1.1. As compared to patients with low-normal bilirubin at baseline (≤0.4 mg/dL), those with high-normal (1.0 > 0.7) and mid-normal bilirubin (0.7 > 0.4) had significantly higher liver transplant/death and all-cause mortality. DISCUSSION: African American and ASINPI patients who did not receive UDCA had significantly higher mortality than white patients. Among African Americans, treatment was associated with significantly lower mortality. Regardless of UDCA treatment, higher baseline bilirubin, even within the normal range, was associated with increased mortality and liver transplant/death compared with low-normal levels.

Goals of Treatment for Improved Survival in Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Treatment Target Should Be Bilirubin Within the Normal Range and Normalization of Alkaline Phosphatase.

INTRODUCTION: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) are widely established as independent predictors of prognosis. Current treatment goals do not aim for normalization of surrogate markers because their association with survival has not been defined. METHODS: The patient cohort from the GLOBAL PBC Study Group was used, comprising of long-term follow-up data from European and North American centers. Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated and untreated patients with bilirubin levels ≤1 × upper limit of normal (ULN) at baseline or 1 year were included. The association of normal ALP with transplant-free survival was assessed in a subgroup with ALP ≤1.67 × ULN at 1 year. Optimal thresholds of bilirubin and ALP to predict liver transplantation (LT) or death were evaluated. RESULTS: There were 2,281 patients included in the time zero cohort and 2,555 patients in the 1-year cohort. The bilirubin threshold with the highest ability to predict LT or death at 1 year was 0.6 × ULN (hazard ratio 2.12, 95% CI 1.69-2.66, P < 0.001). The 10-year survival rates of patients with bilirubin ≤0.6 × ULN and >0.6 × ULN were 91.3% and 79.2%, respectively (P < 0.001). The risk for LT or death was stable below the bilirubin levels of 0.6 × ULN, yet increased beyond this threshold. Ursodeoxycholic acid-induced reduction in bilirubin below this threshold was associated with an 11% improvement in 10-year survival. Furthermore, ALP normalization was optimal, with 10-year survival rates of 93.2% in patients with ALP ≤ 1 × ULN and 86.1% in those with ALP 1.0-1.67 × ULN. DISCUSSION: Attaining bilirubin levels ≤0.6 × ULN or normal ALP are associated with the lowest risk for LT or death in patients with PBC. This has important implications for treatment targets.

Open-label prospective therapeutic clinical trials: oral vancomycin in children and adults with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Oral vancomycin (OV) in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) has been evaluated as a potential therapeutic agent. We report the long-term biochemical course and outcomes of patients with PSC treated with OV. METHODS: Patients were enrolled in 2 open-label clinical trials (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01802073 and NCT01322386) and offered OV at 50 mg/kg/day in 3 divided doses if weight <30kg, and 500 mg 3 times/day if weight ≥30kg. Patients with biliary strictures requiring stenting or awaiting liver transplant were excluded. Liver biochemistry, MRCP and histology were documented at baseline and while on OV. The primary outcome was a decrease in elevated gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and/or alanine aminotransferase (ALT) from baseline. RESULTS: 30 subjects were enrolled, and 29 additional subjects who learned of the clinical trial requested OV (total n = 59; median age was 13.5 years [range, 1.5-44 years]; 64.4% were male; and 94.9% had inflammatory bowel disease [IBD]). The median treatment duration was 2.7 years (range, 0.2-14 years). Ninety-six percent (57/59), 81.3% (48/59), and 94.9% (56/59) experienced reduction of GGT, ALP, and ALT, respectively. Furthermore, 39% (23/59), 22% (13/59), and 55.9% (33/59) experienced normalization of GGT, ALP, and ALT, respectively, within the first 6 months of OV treatment. One patient underwent liver transplantation 8 years after beginning OV treatment, and one developed biliary strictures requiring endoscopic intervention. OV was well-tolerated by patients, and no patient developed treatment-related adverse events. CONCLUSION: In PSC, OV was well-tolerated and was associated with improvement in liver chemistry. A randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial is warranted.

Ursodeoxycholic acid therapy and liver transplant-free survival in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The clinical efficacy of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) remains subject to debate as definitive randomized controlled trials are lacking. We aimed to determine whether UDCA prolongs liver transplant (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC. METHODS: This international cohort study included patients from the Global PBC Study Group database, originating from 8 countries in Europe and North America. Both UDCA-treated and untreated patients were included. LT and death were assessed as a combined endpoint through Cox regression analyses, with inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW). RESULTS: In the 3,902 patients included, the mean (SD) age was 54.3 (11.9) years, 3,552 patients (94.0%) were female, 3,529 patients (90.4%) were treated with UDCA and 373 patients (9.6%) were not treated. The median (interquartile range) follow-up was 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. In total, 721 UDCA-treated patients and 145 untreated patients died or underwent LT. After IPTW, the 10-year cumulative LT-free survival was 79.7% (95% CI 78.1-81.2) among UDCA-treated patients and 60.7% (95% CI 58.2-63.4) among untreated patients (p <0.001). UDCA was associated with a statistically significant reduced risk of LT or death (hazard ratio 0.46, 95% CI 0.40-0.52; p <0.001). The hazard ratio remained statistically significant in all stages of disease. Patients classified as inadequate biochemical responders after 1 year of UDCA had a lower risk of LT or death than patients who were not treated (adjusted hazard ratio 0.56; 95% CI 0.45-0.69; p <0.001). CONCLUSION: The use of UDCA improves LT-free survival among patients with PBC, regardless of the disease stage and the observed biochemical response. These findings support UDCA as the current universal standard of care in PBC. LAY SUMMARY: In this international multicenter study of 3,902 patients with primary biliary cholangitis, we found that treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid is associated with prolonged liver transplant-free survival. This association was significant, irrespective of sex, age, or disease stage. The survival benefit remained statistically significant in patients with an incomplete biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid therapy.