Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

A genetic association study of circulating coagulation factor VIII and von Willebrand factor levels.

ABSTRACT: Coagulation factor VIII (FVIII) and its carrier protein von Willebrand factor (VWF) are critical to coagulation and platelet aggregation. We leveraged whole-genome sequence data from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program along with TOPMed-based imputation of genotypes in additional samples to identify genetic associations with circulating FVIII and VWF levels in a single-variant meta-analysis, including up to 45 289 participants. Gene-based aggregate tests were implemented in TOPMed. We identified 3 candidate causal genes and tested their functional effect on FVIII release from human liver endothelial cells (HLECs) and VWF release from human umbilical vein endothelial cells. Mendelian randomization was also performed to provide evidence for causal associations of FVIII and VWF with thrombotic outcomes. We identified associations (P < 5 × 10-9) at 7 new loci for FVIII (ST3GAL4, CLEC4M, B3GNT2, ASGR1, F12, KNG1, and TREM1/NCR2) and 1 for VWF (B3GNT2). VWF, ABO, and STAB2 were associated with FVIII and VWF in gene-based analyses. Multiphenotype analysis of FVIII and VWF identified another 3 new loci, including PDIA3. Silencing of B3GNT2 and the previously reported CD36 gene decreased release of FVIII by HLECs, whereas silencing of B3GNT2, CD36, and PDIA3 decreased release of VWF by HVECs. Mendelian randomization supports causal association of higher FVIII and VWF with increased risk of thrombotic outcomes. Seven new loci were identified for FVIII and 1 for VWF, with evidence supporting causal associations of FVIII and VWF with thrombotic outcomes. B3GNT2, CD36, and PDIA3 modulate the release of FVIII and/or VWF in vitro.

Exome sequencing of 20,791 cases of type 2 diabetes and 24,440 controls.

Protein-coding genetic variants that strongly affect disease risk can yield relevant clues to disease pathogenesis. Here we report exome-sequencing analyses of 20,791 individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and 24,440 non-diabetic control participants from 5 ancestries. We identify gene-level associations of rare variants (with minor allele frequencies of less than 0.5%) in 4 genes at exome-wide significance, including a series of more than 30 SLC30A8 alleles that conveys protection against T2D, and in 12 gene sets, including those corresponding to T2D drug targets (P = 6.1 × 10-3) and candidate genes from knockout mice (P = 5.2 × 10-3). Within our study, the strongest T2D gene-level signals for rare variants explain at most 25% of the heritability of the strongest common single-variant signals, and the gene-level effect sizes of the rare variants that we observed in established T2D drug targets will require 75,000-185,000 sequenced cases to achieve exome-wide significance. We propose a method to interpret these modest rare-variant associations and to incorporate these associations into future target or gene prioritization efforts.

C-reactive protein modifies lipoprotein(a)-related risk for coronary heart disease: the BiomarCaRE project.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Recent investigations have suggested an interdependence of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)]-related risk for cardiovascular disease with background inflammatory burden. The aim the present analysis was to investigate whether high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) modulates the association between Lp(a) and coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population. METHODS: Data from 71 678 participants from 8 European prospective population-based cohort studies were used (65 661 without/6017 with established CHD at baseline; median follow-up 9.8/13.8 years, respectively). Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted models were calculated according to accompanying hsCRP concentration (<2 and ≥2 mg/L). RESULTS: Among CHD-free individuals, increased Lp(a) levels were associated with incident CHD irrespective of hsCRP concentration: fully adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratios [sHRs (95% confidence interval)] for the highest vs. lowest fifth of Lp(a) distribution were 1.45 (1.23-1.72) and 1.48 (1.23-1.78) for a hsCRP group of <2 and ≥2 mg/L, respectively, with no interaction found between these two biomarkers on CHD risk (Pinteraction = 0.82). In those with established CHD, similar associations were seen only among individuals with hsCRP ≥ 2 mg/L [1.34 (1.03-1.76)], whereas among participants with a hsCRP concentration <2 mg/L, there was no clear association between Lp(a) and future CHD events [1.29 (0.98-1.71)] (highest vs. lowest fifth, fully adjusted models; Pinteraction = 0.024). CONCLUSIONS: While among CHD-free individuals Lp(a) was significantly associated with incident CHD regardless of hsCRP, in participants with CHD at baseline, Lp(a) was related to recurrent CHD events only in those with residual inflammatory risk. These findings might guide adequate selection of high-risk patients for forthcoming Lp(a)-targeting compounds.

Genome-wide association study of preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm).

BACKGROUND: Preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) is defined as a forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) <80% predicted and FEV1/forced vital capacity ≥0.70. PRISm is associated with respiratory symptoms and comorbidities. Our objective was to discover novel genetic signals for PRISm and see if they provide insight into the pathogenesis of PRISm and associated comorbidities. METHODS: We undertook a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of PRISm in UK Biobank participants (Stage 1), and selected single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) reaching genome-wide significance for replication in 13 cohorts (Stage 2). A combined meta-analysis of Stage 1 and Stage 2 was done to determine top SNPs. We used cross-trait linkage disequilibrium score regression to estimate genome-wide genetic correlation between PRISm and pulmonary and extrapulmonary traits. Phenome-wide association studies of top SNPs were performed. RESULTS: 22 signals reached significance in the joint meta-analysis, including four signals novel for lung function. A strong genome-wide genetic correlation (rg) between PRISm and spirometric COPD (rg=0.62, p<0.001) was observed, and genetic correlation with type 2 diabetes (rg=0.12, p=0.007). Phenome-wide association studies showed that 18 of 22 signals were associated with diabetic traits and seven with blood pressure traits. CONCLUSION: This is the first GWAS to successfully identify SNPs associated with PRISm. Four of the signals, rs7652391 (nearest gene MECOM), rs9431040 (HLX), rs62018863 (TMEM114) and rs185937162 (HLA-B), have not been described in association with lung function before, demonstrating the utility of using different lung function phenotypes in GWAS. Genetic factors associated with PRISm are strongly correlated with risk of both other lung diseases and extrapulmonary comorbidity.

Does iodine fortification affect the risk of atrial fibrillation in incident hyperthyroidism? A national register-based cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Iodine fortification (IF) induces an initial increase followed by a decrease in the incidence of hyperthyroidism in the general population. Within the population of hyperthyroid patients, the sex-, age- and subtype distribution changes after IF. The risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in hyperthyroid patients may be influenced by these factors. Therefore, we aimed to examine how the association between incident hyperthyroidism and AF was affected by IF increasing the population iodine intake from moderate-mild iodine deficiency to low adequacy. DESIGN, PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS: Incident hyperthyroid patients were included at the date of first inpatient or outpatient diagnosis, and AF diagnoses within 3 months before to 6 months after the index date were identified in Danish nationwide registers, 1997-2018. The relative risk (RR) of AF each calendar year (reference: 1997; IF introduced: 2000) was analyzed in Poisson regression models adjusted for age, sex, educational level, geographic region, and comorbidities. RESULTS: Overall, in 62,201 patients with incident hyperthyroidism 7.9% were diagnosed with AF. There was a minor nonsignificantly increased risk of AF during the first years after IF followed by a gradual decrease to RR 0.76 (0.62-0.94) in 2017. There were no statistically significant differences in the development in the risk of AF by sex, age group, or geographic region. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that IF may reduce the risk of concomitant AF in hyperthyroid patients. If these results are confirmed, IF may not only reduce the population incidence of hyperthyroidism but also reduce the burden of morbidity in the remaining hyperthyroid patients.

Natural course of pollen-induced allergic rhinitis from childhood to adulthood: A 20-year follow up.

BACKGROUND: Allergic rhinitis (AR) is one of the most common chronic diseases worldwide. There are limited prospective long-term data regarding persistency and remission of AR. The objective of this study was to investigate the natural course of pollen-induced AR (pollen-AR) over 20 years, from childhood into early adulthood. METHODS: Data from 1137 subjects in the Barn/Children Allergi/Allergy Milieu Stockholm Epidemiologic birth cohort (BAMSE) with a completed questionnaire regarding symptoms, asthma, treatment with allergen immunotherapy (AIT) and results of allergen-specific IgE for inhalant allergens at 4, 8, 16 and 24 years were analyzed. Pollen-AR was defined as sneezing, runny, itchy or blocked nose; and itchy or watery eyes when exposed to birch and/or grass pollen in combination with allergen-specific IgE ≥0.35kUA/L to birch and/or grass. RESULTS: Approximately 75% of children with pollen-AR at 4 or 8 years had persistent disease up to 24 years, and 30% developed asthma. The probability of persistency was high already at low levels of pollen-specific IgE. The highest rate of remission from pollen-AR was seen between 16 and 24 years (21.5%); however, the majority remained sensitized. This period was also when pollen-specific IgE-levels stopped increasing and the average estimated annual incidence of pollen-AR decreased from 1.5% to 0.8% per year. CONCLUSION: Children with pollen-AR are at high risk of persistent disease for at least 20 years. Childhood up to adolescence seems to be the most dynamic period of AR progression. Our findings underline the close cross-sectional and longitudinal relationship between sensitization, AR and asthma.

Increasing prevalence of galactose-α-1,3-galactose sensitization in the Danish general adult population.

BACKGROUND: Alpha-gal syndrome is a novel food allergy to the oligosaccharide galactose-α-1,3-galactose (alpha-gal) present in mammalian meat. Tick bites are considered an important route of sensitization to alpha-gal. Data on alpha-gal sensitization in the general population is scant. We utilized a unique data source of repeated population-based health examination studies to assess prevalence, time trends, risk factors, and characteristics of alpha-gal sensitization. METHODS: Alpha-gal sensitization was assessed in >11.000 adults from four health examination studies of randomly invited residents in the Copenhagen region conducted in 1990-1991, 2011-2012, 2012-2015, and 2016-2017. Alpha-gal sensitization was defined as serum specific IgE (sIgE) to alpha-gal ≥0.1 kUA/L; ≥0.35 kUA/L; ≥0.7 kUA/L; ≥3.5 kUA/L. The population was characterized according to genetically determined ABO blood group, aeroallergen sensitization, and pets at home. RESULTS: The prevalence of sIgE to alpha-gal ≥0.1 kUA/L was 1.3% in 1990-1991, 3.7% in 2012-2015 and 3.2% in 2016-2017. Of those sensitized to alpha-gal >97% reported to consume red meat at least once a week, even for sIgE to alpha-gal ≥3.5 kUA/L. Male sex, older age, aeroallergen sensitization, cat at home, and blood group A were associated with increased odds of alpha-gal sensitization. The known protective effect of blood group B was confirmed. CONCLUSION: In this general adult population, the prevalence of alpha-gal sensitization had doubled from 1990-1991 to 2016-2017. This could potentially be due to increased tick exposure and an increased atopic predisposition.

The associations between functional vitamin K status and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease and end-stage kidney disease in persons with type 1 diabetes.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Vitamin K deficiency is common in persons with kidney disease, which is a known complication of diabetes. We aimed to assess the association of vitamin K status as reflected by plasma dephosphorylated-uncarboxylated matrix Gla protein (dp-ucMGP) with mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and progression to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in persons with type 1 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analysed plasma dp-ucMGP in stored baseline samples from a cohort of 667 persons with type 1 diabetes (baseline visit: 2009-2011). Information on mortality and CVD was obtained through linkage to registers. Cox-proportional hazards models were applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality, CVD and ESKD per one doubling of dp-ucMGP. RESULTS: A total of 53 deaths were recorded during follow-up. Persons with higher dp-ucMGP (reflecting lower vitamin K status) had higher mortality in the unadjusted model (HR: 2.06 [95% confidence interval-CI: 1.22-3.45]), but not in the fully adjusted model (HR: 0.88 [95% CI: 0.44-1.73]). Particularly, adjustment for glomerular filtration rate and urinary albumin excretion rate attenuated the HR. A similar pattern was observed in unadjusted models for incidence of CVD (HR: 1.58 [95% CI: 1.03-2.42]) and risk of ESKD (HR: 7.62 [95% CI: 4.25-13.68]). In the fully adjusted models, the HRs became statistically insignificant. CONCLUSION: In persons with type 1 diabetes, lower vitamin K status was associated with higher mortality, CVD and progression to ESKD, however, not after adjustment for other risk factors. Interventional studies are needed to elucidate the role of vitamin K in persons with type 1 diabetes.

Vitamin K1 intake is associated with lower risk for all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in community-dwelling older Australian women.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Assessing the relationship between vitamin K1 intakes, using region-specific food databases, with both all-cause, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality warrants further investigation to inform future preventative strategies. Consequently, we examined the aforementioned associations in the Perth Longitudinal Study of Ageing Women (PLSAW). METHODS AND RESULTS: 1436 community-dwelling older Australian women (mean ± SD age 75.2 ± 2.7 years) completed a validated food frequency questionnaire at baseline (1998). Vitamin K1 intake was calculated based on an Australian vitamin K food database, supplemented with published data. All-cause and CVD mortality data was obtained from linked health records. Associations were examined using restricted cubic splines within Cox-proportional hazard models, adjusted for a range of cardiovascular and lifestyle related risk factors. Over 15 years of follow-up, 601 (41.9%) women died, with 236 deaths (16.4%) due to CVD. Compared to women with the lowest vitamin K1 intakes (Quartile 1, median 49.1 µg/day), those with the highest intakes (Quartile 4, median 119.3 µg/day) had lower relative hazards for all-cause mortality (HR 0.66 95%CI 0.51-0.86) and CVD mortality (HR 0.61 95%CI 0.41-0.92). A plateau in the inverse association was observed from vitamin K1 intakes of approximately ≥80 µg/day. CONCLUSION: Higher vitamin K1 intakes were associated with lower risk for both all-cause and CVD mortality in community-dwelling older women, independent of CVD related risk factors. A higher intake of vitamin K1 rich foods, such as leafy green vegetables, may support cardiovascular health.

Lifestyle factors as predictors of incident functional somatic disorder. Five-year follow-up of The DanFunD study.

AIMS: To assess whether lifestyle factors, including sleep pattern, are predictors for the development of functional somatic disorder (FSD). METHODS: A population-based prospective cohort of 9656 men and women aged 18-76 years was established in 2011-2015 and invited for re-examination in 2017-2020, when 5738 participated. Median follow-up period was 65 months. Participants filled in validated questionnaires on lifestyle, sleep pattern and various delimitations of FSD, which were operationalized using two different approaches: bodily distress syndrome (BDS) and functional somatic syndromes (FSS) (i.e. chronic fatigue, chronic widespread pain (CWP), irritable bowel, and multiple chemical sensitivity (MCS)). Baseline lifestyle and sleep pattern in relation to incidence of BDS and FSS (chronic fatigue, CWP, irritable bowel, MCS) was analysed by logistic regressions, adjusted for age, sex and subjective social status. RESULTS: Inferior sleep quality at baseline predicted both incidence of BDS and all FSS delimitations except MCS. Smoking, alcohol intake, and low physical activity, but not diet, were predictors for the development of BDS. No uniform pattern was observed for the FSS. Smoking predicted development of chronic fatigue, CWP and irritable bowel, but not MCS. Alcohol and food quality only influenced the development of chronic fatigue whereas low physical activity only influenced the development of chronic fatigue and CWP. CONCLUSIONS: Lifestyle factors and sleep pattern seem to be predictors for some delimitations of FSD, but the importance of the various lifestyle factors is different for the different delimitations. The study shows the importance of analysing the various FSSs separately.

'It was hell on earth': perspectives of people living with celiac disease on diagnostic delay.

BACKGROUND: Celiac disease (CD) is underdiagnosed and associated with diagnostic delays. This has long-term consequences for the health and well-being of people living with the condition. Little is known about the qualitative configurations of the assessment processes of people living with CD. METHODS: Using a thematic network analysis of 24 in-depth interviews, this study explored the experiences of people living with CD related to their assessment processes leading to being diagnosed. RESULTS: A significant diagnostic delay (up to 26 years) was evident in many interviews. Factors contributing to diagnostic delay included limited knowledge about CD among general practitioners (GP) and in the general population, categorisations of symptoms as 'typical' or 'atypical' and psychosomatic explanations of symptoms. Diagnostic delay resulted in (1) decreased psychological well-being due to severe symptoms, changes in self-perception and self-blame; (2) decreased physiological well-being due to comorbidities; and (3) mistrust in the healthcare system, leading to an increase in informants' responsibility for expediting their assessment processes. This suggested the presence of a neoliberal tendency because informants felt they were primarily responsible for their assessment processes. CONCLUSIONS: We encourage the implementation of initiatives to increase awareness of CD among GPs as well as more consistent and frequent use of the screening guideline due to variations in its clinical presentation. Increased awareness and consistency could reduce variations in assessment processes given GPs' varying knowledge about the condition.

Low birthweight is associated with a higher incidence of type 2 diabetes over two decades independent of adult BMI and genetic predisposition.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Low birthweight is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes. Most previous studies are based on cross-sectional prevalence data, not designed to study the timing of onset of type 2 diabetes in relation to birthweight. We aimed to examine associations of birthweight with age-specific incidence rate of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged to older adults over two decades. METHODS: Adults aged 30-60 years enrolled in the Danish Inter99 cohort in 1999-2001 (baseline examination), with information on birthweight from original birth records from 1939-1971 and without diabetes at baseline, were eligible. Birth records were linked with individual-level data on age at diabetes diagnosis and key covariates. Incidence rates of type 2 diabetes as a function of age, sex and birthweight were modelled using Poisson regression, adjusting for prematurity status at birth, parity, polygenic scores for birthweight and type 2 diabetes, maternal and paternal diabetes history, socioeconomic status and adult BMI. RESULTS: In 4590 participants there were 492 incident type 2 diabetes cases during a mean follow-up of 19 years. Type 2 diabetes incidence rate increased with age, was higher in male participants, and decreased with increasing birthweight (incidence rate ratio [95% CI per 1 kg increase in birthweight] 0.60 [0.48, 0.75]). The inverse association of birthweight with type 2 diabetes incidence was statistically significant across all models and in sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: A lower birthweight was associated with increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes independent of adult BMI and genetic risk of type 2 diabetes and birthweight.

An arrhythmogenic metabolite in atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Long-chain acyl-carnitines (ACs) are potential arrhythmogenic metabolites. Their role in atrial fibrillation (AF) remains incompletely understood. Using a systems medicine approach, we assessed the contribution of C18:1AC to AF by analysing its in vitro effects on cardiac electrophysiology and metabolism, and translated our findings into the human setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: Human iPSC-derived engineered heart tissue was exposed to C18:1AC. A biphasic effect on contractile force was observed: short exposure enhanced contractile force, but elicited spontaneous contractions and impaired Ca2+ handling. Continuous exposure provoked an impairment of contractile force. In human atrial mitochondria from AF individuals, C18:1AC inhibited respiration. In a population-based cohort as well as a cohort of patients, high C18:1AC serum concentrations were associated with the incidence and prevalence of AF. CONCLUSION: Our data provide evidence for an arrhythmogenic potential of the metabolite C18:1AC. The metabolite interferes with mitochondrial metabolism, thereby contributing to contractile dysfunction and shows predictive potential as novel circulating biomarker for risk of AF.

Risk prediction of atrial fibrillation and its complications in the community using hs troponin I.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is becoming increasingly common. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) do not explain all AF cases. Blood-based biomarkers reflecting cardiac injury such as high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) may help close this gap. METHODS: We investigated the predictive ability of hsTnI for incident AF in 45,298 participants (median age 51.4 years, 45.0% men) across European community cohorts in comparison to CVRF and established biomarkers (C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 1734 (3.8%) participants developed AF. Those in the highest hsTnI quarter (≥4.2 ng/L) had a 3.91-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.30, 4.63; p < .01) risk for developing AF compared to the lowest quarter (<1.4 ng/L). In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models a statistically significant association was seen between hsTnI and AF (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in log10(hsTnI) 1.08; 95% CI 1.01, 1.16; p = .03). Inclusion of hsTnI did improve model discrimination (C-index CVRF 0.811 vs. C-index CVRF and hsTnI 0.813; p < .01). Higher hsTnI concentrations were associated with heart failure (HR per SD 1.37; 95% CI 1.12, 1.68; p < .01) and overall mortality (HR per SD 1.24; 95% CI 1.09, 1.41; p < .01). CONCLUSION: hsTnI as a biomarker of myocardial injury does not improve prediction of AF incidence beyond classical CVRF and NT-proBNP. However, it is associated with the AF-related disease heart failure and mortality likely reflecting underlying subclinical cardiovascular impairment.

Celiac disease and risk of neuropsychiatric disorders: A nationwide cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Previous studies have indicated that patients with celiac disease (CD) may have an increased risk of developing neuropsychiatric disorders. However, large-scale epidemiologic studies on the topic are still scarce. We aimed to examine the association between CD and development of neuropsychiatric disorders during an 18-year follow-up period. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study. All Danish patients with an incident diagnosis of CD (ICD-10 K90.0) from 2000 to 2018 were identified in nationwide registries and compared with birthdate- and sex-matched controls (variable 1:10 ratio) for the development of a neuropsychiatric disease. Individual neuropsychiatric diseases were also examined. The absolute risk was calculated by the cumulative incidence, and the relative risk was estimated in Cox regression models. RESULTS: We identified a cohort of 6329 patients with CD diagnosed from 2000 to 2018 and 63,287 matches at risk for developing incident neuropsychiatric disorders. The cumulative incidence of development of any neuropsychiatric disorder was 3.9%, 14.9%, 24.8%, 35.9% after 1, 5, 10, and 15 years of follow-up, respectively, in patients with CD compared with 1.8%, 9.3%, 18.3%, and 27.0% in controls. Gray's test for equality p < 0.001. The relative risk was HR = 1.58 (95% confidence interval: 1.49-1.68) in CD patients compared with matches. For the individual outcomes, CD was associated with an increased relative risk of developing anxiety, depression, eating disorders, epilepsy, migraine, and stress. We also found indications of an increased relative risk of ADHD, alcoholism, bipolar disorders, and drug abuse, although the associations were less clear. No associations were found between CD and dementia, Parkinson's disease, and schizophrenia. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide study including more than 6000 patients with CD, we found an increased risk of development of a neuropsychiatric disorder compared with age- and sex-matched controls. The causes and the clinical relevance of these associations remain to be elucidated.

Exploring the incremental utility of circulating biomarkers for robust risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation in European cohorts using regressions and modern machine learning methods.

AIMS: To identify robust circulating predictors for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: In pooled European community cohorts (n = 42 280 individuals), 14 routinely available biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways including lipids, inflammation, renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions and distinct ML methods. Of 42 280 individuals (21 843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.7, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox-regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82-2.04); P < 0.001]. Further, hsTnI [HR per SD, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.22); P < 0.001], cystatin C [HR per SD, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.10-1.23); P < 0.001], and C-reactive protein [HR per SD, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02-1.14); P = 0.012] correlated positively with incident AF. Applying various ML techniques, a high inter-method consistency of selected candidate variables was observed. NT-proBNP was identified as the blood-based marker with the highest predictive value for incident AF. Relevant clinical predictors were age, the use of antihypertensive medication, and body mass index. CONCLUSION: Using different variable selection procedures including ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF and ranked before classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for identifying at-risk individuals for targeted AF screening needs to be elucidated and tested prospectively.

Genome-wide study of early and severe childhood asthma identifies interaction between CDHR3 and GSDMB.

BACKGROUND: Asthma with severe exacerbation is one of the most common causes of hospitalization among young children. Exacerbations are typically triggered by respiratory infections, but the host factors causing recurrent infections and exacerbations in some children are poorly understood. As a result, current treatment options and preventive measures are inadequate. OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify genetic interaction associated with the development of childhood asthma. METHODS: We performed an exhaustive search for pairwise interaction between genetic single nucleotide polymorphisms using 1204 cases of a specific phenotype of early childhood asthma with severe exacerbations in patients aged 2 to 6 years combined with 5328 nonasthmatic controls. Replication was attempted in 3 independent populations, and potential underlying immune mechanisms were investigated in the COPSAC2010 and COPSAC2000 birth cohorts. RESULTS: We found evidence of interaction, including replication in independent populations, between the known childhood asthma loci CDHR3 and GSDMB. The effect of CDHR3 was dependent on the GSDMB genotype, and this interaction was more pronounced for severe and early onset of disease. Blood immune analyses suggested a mechanism related to increased IL-17A production after viral stimulation. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence of interaction between CDHR3 and GSDMB in development of early childhood asthma, possibly related to increased IL-17A response to viral infections. This study demonstrates the importance of focusing on specific disease subtypes for understanding the genetic mechanisms of asthma.

Association of milk intake with hay fever, asthma, and lung function: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous observational studies have indicated a protective effect of drinking milk on asthma and allergy. In Mendelian Randomization, one or more genetic variants are used as unbiased markers of exposure to examine causal effects. We examined the causal effect of milk intake on hay fever, asthma, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) by using the lactase rs4988235 genotype associated with milk intake. METHODS: We performed a Mendelian Randomization study including 363,961 participants from the UK Biobank. RESULTS: Observational analyses showed that self-reported milk-drinkers vs. non-milk drinkers had an increased risk of hay fever: odds ratio (OR) = 1.36 (95% CI 1.32, 1.40, p < 0.001), asthma: OR = 1.33 (95% CI 1.38, 1.29, p < 0.001), yet a higher FEV1: ß = 0.022 (SE = 0.004, p < 0.001) and FVC: ß = 0.026 (SE = 0.005, p < 0.001). In contrast, genetically determined milk-drinking vs. not drinking milk was associated with a lower risk of hay fever: OR = 0.791 (95% CI 0.636, 0.982, p = 0.033), and asthma: OR = 0.587 (95% CI 0.442, 0.779, p = 0.001), and lower FEV1: ß = - 0.154 (standard error, SE = 0.034, p < 0.001) liter, and FVC: ß = - 0.223 (SE = 0.034, p < 0.001) liter in univariable MR analyses. These results were supported by multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses although not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: As opposed to observational results, genetic association findings indicate that drinking milk has a protective effect on hay fever and asthma but may also have a negative effect on lung function. The results should be confirmed in other studies before any recommendations can be made.

Population-based epidemiology: The Glostrup Population Studies 1964-2021.

The Glostrup Population Studies are population-based cohorts undertaken in the south-western part of Greater Copenhagen since 1964. The participants were randomly selected from the adult general population. The first cohort was established to assess cardiovascular risk factors and, since, the objectives have been broadened to describe and analyse the health of the general population. The studies are health-examination studies with clinical and biochemical data in addition to data from self-administered questionnaires and, in some studies, interviews. Fasting blood and urine samples were collected and stored in our biobank for further studies. Several of the cohorts were performed according to standardized methods in international consortia, hence data have been pooled with other, both Danish and international, cohorts. To date more than 30,000 individuals, both men and women, aged 15-85 years, have participated in The Glostrup Population Studies and participants have been re-examined up to eight times. The data can be used for disease-specific epidemiology, social epidemiology, genetic epidemiology, ageing, lifestyle and health interventions nested within the cohorts. The Glostrup Population Studies represent a great resource; the possibility of merging the different cohorts enables large datasets, as well as trends over time. Furthermore, the long follow-up in both the national registers and with follow-up examinations is unique. The purpose of this commentary is to inform about The Glostrup Population Studies and to invite collaborations to continue utilizing this great resource to combat current and future challenges within health promotion and disease prevention.