Beyond probiotic legend: ESSAP gut microbiota health score to delineate SARS-COV-2 infection severity.

COVID-19 pandemic continues to be a global health crisis. The gut microbiome critically affects the immune system, and some respiratory infections are associated with changes in the gut microbiome; here, we evaluated the role of nutritional and lifestyle habits that modulate gut microbiota on COVID-19 outcomes in a longitudinal cohort study that included 200 patients infected with COVID-19. Of these, 122 cases were mild and seventy-eight were moderate, according to WHO classification. After detailed explanation by a consultant in clinical nutrition, participants responded to a written questionnaire on daily sugar, prebiotic intake in food, sleeping hours, exercise duration and antibiotic prescription, during the past 1 year before infection. Daily consumption of prebiotic-containing foods, less sugar, regular exercise, adequate sleep and fewer antibiotic prescriptions led to a milder disease and rapid virus clearance. Additionally, data on these factors were compiled into a single score, the ESSAP score (Exercise, Sugar consumption, Sleeping hours, Antibiotics taken, and Prebiotics consumption; 0-11 points), median ESSAP score was 5 for both mild and moderate cases; however, the range was 4-8 in mild cases, but 1-6 in moderate (P = 0·001, OR: 4·2, 95 % CI 1·9, 9·1); our results showed a negative correlation between regular consumption of yogurt containing probiotics and disease severity (P = 0·007, OR: 1·6, 95 % CI 1·1, 2·1). Mild COVID-19 disease was associated with 10-20 min of daily exercise (P = 0·016), sleeping at least 8 h daily, prescribed antibiotics less than 5 times per year (P = 0·077) and ate plenty of prebiotic-containing food.

Effect of Ramadan intermittent fasting on inflammatory markers, disease severity, depression, and quality of life in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent fasting (IF) during the month of Ramadan is part of the religious rituals of Muslims. The effect of intermittent fasting on disease activity in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) is still unknown. This is the first study to assess the effect of IF during Ramadan on inflammatory markers in patients diagnosed with IBD. The effects on clinical disease activity, quality of life, and levels of depression were also assessed. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with ulcerative colitis (UC) or Crohn's disease (CD) who intended to observe Ramadan fasting were recruited. The following were assessed immediately before and at the end of Ramadan: Serum CRP and stool calprotectin, partial Mayo score, Harvey Bradshaw index (HBI), Simple IBD questionnaire (SIBDQ), and Hamilton depression scale questionnaire. RESULTS: 80 patients diagnosed with IBD were recruited (60 UC, 20 CD). Serum CRP and stool calprotectin did not show a significant change before vs after fasting (median CRP 0.53 vs 0.50, P value = 0.27, Calprotectin 163 vs 218 respectively, P value = 0.62). The partial Mayo score showed a significant rise after fasting (median 1 before vs 1 after fasting, mean: 1.79 vs 2.33 respectively, P value = 0.02). Harvey-Bradshaw index did not show a significant change after fasting (median 4 vs 5, P value = 0.4). Multiple linear regression revealed that older age and a higher baseline calprotectin were associated with a higher change in Mayo score after fasting (P value = 0.02 and P value = 0.01, respectively). No significant change was detected in SIBDQ or Hamilton depression scale scores. CONCLUSIONS: In patients diagnosed with UC, IF during Ramadan was associated with worsening of clinical parameters, the effect was more pronounced in older patients and those with higher baseline calprotectin levels. However, IF during Ramadan was not associated with an adverse effect on objective inflammatory markers (CRP and calprotectin).

Beneficial role of healthy eating Index-2015 score & physical activity on COVID-19 outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional status and physical activity are essential to maintain a strong immune system. No definite pharmacological strategies for Coronavirus disease 2019 treatment are presently available, so natural enhancement of the immune system is in need. Our goal was to assess the correlation of healthy diet and physical activity on COVID-19 disease outcome. METHODS: This cohort study was conducted on 68 adult patients who contracted mild (38) or moderate [30] cases of COVID-19, recruited via a convenience sampling technique from the outpatient clinic, Kasr Al-Aini Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University Hospital. Patients' Healthy Eating Index (HEI) and degree of physical activity as measured by the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire were evaluated and linked with several inflammatory markers. RESULTS: Most of patients with mild COVID-19 patients (92.1%) were physically active, compared to only 50% of moderate COVID-19. The total Metabolic Equivalent Task-min/week was positively correlated with the lymphocyte percentage. The median total HEI score was significantly higher in the patients with mild COVID-19 than with moderate COVID. Significant positive correlations observed among the lymphocyte count and total HEI-2015. There was approximately a 64% reduction in the probability of acquiring moderate COVID-19 illness for each unit rise in The HEI. CONCLUSION: Healthier nutrition and Physical activity correlated with reduced COVID-19 disease severity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered on clinical trial.gov maintained by the US National Library of Medicine (CinicalTrials.gov identifier = NCT04447144; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ ) (25/06/2020).

Patterns of liver profile disturbance in patients with COVID-19.

Fever and cough are the most common clinical symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but complications (such as pneumonia, respiratory distress syndrome, and multiorgan failure) can occur in people with additional comorbidities. COVID-19 may be a new cause of liver disease, as liver profile disturbance is one of the most common findings among patients. The molecular mechanism underlying this phenomenon, however, is still unknown. In this paper, we review the most current research on the patterns of change in liver profile among patients with COVID-19, the possible explanation for these findings, and the relation to pre-existing liver disease in these patients.

Outcome and prognostic markers of cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients admitted to a hepatology ICU in a tertiary care university hospital.

Background and aim: Patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis are not given priority for ICU admission in the settings of limited place availability. Recently, advances in medical care led to improvement in their survival. Our aim is to study the outcome of patients admitted to our hepatology ICU. Methods: We retrieved the data of patients admitted to the Endemic Medicine Department ICU at Kasr Al-Ainy Hospital in the period from November 2014 to May 2018. We included 498 patients who had complete clinical and outcome data in this analysis. The primary outcome was ICU mortality and its predictors. Results: The overall mortality was 48.1% in the liver cirrhosis versus 52.9% in the non-cirrhosis group. The most common presentations of cirrhotic patients were hepatic encephalopathy and hypovolemic shock. The SOFA score and sepsis independently predicted mortality in the overall cohort. Conclusion: The mortality of cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU is not higher than non-cirrhotic patients. SOFA score is a good prognostic indicator in patients with cirrhosis.

HCV/HIV coinfected Egyptian patients: a cross-sectional study of their main characteristics and barriers to HCV treatment initiation.

BACKGROUND: This study investigates different barriers preventing a cohort of Egyptian HIV/HCV coinfected patients from accessing HCV treatment, despite being available and free of charge, aiming to improve the long-term outcomes of coinfected patients and decreasing their liver-related morbidity and mortality. METHODS: This study included HIV patients who were referred to Kasr Alainy Viral Hepatitis Center to receive HCV treatment and who had to continue pretreatment assessment in order to receive direct acting antiviral agents free of charge. Patients who did not attend within 90 d were questioned via a telephone interview. Questions addressed sociodemographic status, HIV status and the main barriers to accessing healthcare. RESULTS: Overall, 474 HIV/HCV coinfected patients were eligible for HCV treatment and 223 (47.1%) patients did not complete work-up for HCV treatment. Fear of community stigma concerning HIV/HCV was the most important barrier to compliance with treatment (73.3%), followed by lack of a supportive work environment and employment opportunities (51.5%), whereas 39.3% stopped follow-up due to the lack of integrated services in the healthcare facility. CONCLUSIONS: Managing HCV in HCV/HIV coinfected patients still represents a major challenge, not only for healthcare providers, but also at a community level, to improve community awareness and manage the major obstacle facing those patients regarding community stigma.

Plasma cell-free DNA integrity index and hepatocellular carcinoma treated or not with direct-acting antivirals: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: The clinical value of the cell-free DNA (cf-DNA) integrity index as a diagnostic biomarker of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was investigated and correlated with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). PATIENTS AND METHODS: This case-control study was conducted on 160 patients with HCV genotype 4-related liver cirrhosis. Group 1 consisted of 80 patients with HCC, including 40 patients naïve to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and 40 patients who received DAAs and achieved sustained virological response. Group 2 comprised 80 patients with cirrhosis without HCC. Plasma cf-DNA integrity index using ALU 115 and ALU 247 sequences was assessed using SYBR Green-based real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The cf-DNA integrity index was calculated as the ratio of Q247/Q115 where Q115 and Q247 are the ALU-qPCR results obtained using ALU 115 and ALU 247, respectively. RESULTS: Patients with HCC had significantly lower plasma cf-DNA integrity index than those with liver cirrhosis. No significant difference in the cf-DNA integrity index was observed between patients with HCC who received DAAs and those who did not. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed an area under the ROC curve of 0.965 and 0.886 for detecting HCC using the cf-DNA integrity index and AFP, respectively. The combination of the cf-DNA integrity index and AFP improved the sensitivity from 81.6% to 94.7%, positive predictive value from 93.4% to 94.7%, negative predictive value from 84.4% to 94.9%, and accuracy from 88.4% to 94.8%. CONCLUSION: The cf-DNA integrity index can predict the occurrence of HCV genotype 4-related HCC. No significant difference in the cf-DNA integrity index was observed between patients with HCC who received DAAs and those without previous DAAs. The combination of the cf-DNA integrity index and AFP provides better HCC prediction accuracy.

Meta-learning algorithm development to predict outcomes in patients with hepatitis C virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Prediction of prognosis and treatment outcomes for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is complex for most patients. Machine learning predictive analysis can be used to explore the rich information in electronic health records to discover hidden patterns and relationships. We aimed to develop a noninvasive algorithm for predicting outcome treatment options for patients with HCC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 1298 patients with Hepatitis C virus-related HCC attending an HCC multidisciplinary clinic, Kasr Al-Aini Hospital, Cairo University, between 2009 and 2016. Using machine learning analysis, we constructed Reduced Error Pruning (REP) decision tree algorithms and applied Auto-WEKA to select the best classifier out of 39 algorithms. RESULTS: The REP-tree algorithm predicted HCC management outcomes with a recall (sensitivity) of 0.658 and a precision (specificity) of 0.653 using only routine data. 854 (65.8%) instances were correctly identified, and 444 (34.2%) instances were incorrectly classified. Out of 31 attributes, liver decompensation was selected by REP-tree as the best predictor of HCC outcome (root node). With Auto-WEKA, the random subspace classifier was chosen as the best predictive algorithm with a recall (sensitivity) of 0.750 and a precision (specificity) of 0.75. There were 974 (75%) correctly classified instances and 324 (25%) incorrectly classified instances, which was better than REP-tree. CONCLUSION: Machine learning analysis explores data to discover hidden patterns and trends and enables the development of models to predict HCC treatment outcomes utilizing simple laboratory data. The random subspace classifier predicted the outcome more accurately than REP-tree.

Survival and recurrence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma after treatment of chronic hepatitis C using direct acting antivirals.

BACKGROUND: Conflicting studies were proposed either suggested or denied the relationship between early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence and the use of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for chronic hepatitis C management. AIM OF THE STUDY: To evaluate HCC recurrence rate post-DAAs and potential predictive factors.Study This prospective cohort study included all HCC patients achieved complete response attending our multidisciplinary HCC clinic, Cairo University, from November 2013 to February 2018. Group I (60 patients) who received DAAs after HCC ablation and group II (273 patients) who were DAAs-untreated. We studied factors that could play a role in HCC recurrence. RESULTS: The sustained virological response rate was 88.3% among DAA-treated patients. HCC recurrence rate was 45% in the post-DAA group vs. 19% in the non-DAAs group; P < 0.001. Mean survival was significantly higher in the post-DAA group (34.23 ± 16.16 vs. 23.92 ± 13.99 months respectively; P value <0.001). There was a significant correlation between HCC recurrence rate and age, male gender, mean size of tumors and time interval between complete HCC ablation and occurrence of HCC recurrence. CONCLUSION: Our study reports high rate of HCC recurrence post-DAA therapy in patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization but not in those treated with curative measures. DAA therapy after curative treatment for HCC led to significantly earlier HCC recurrence, which correlated with specific clinic-pathologic features in our prospective single-institution study. However, future independent prospective randomized studies are warranted to evaluate this correlation which may lead to a change in the current standard-of-care approach to patients with hepatitis C virus-related HCC.

COVID-19 Disease Outcomes: Does Gastrointestinal Burden Play a Role?

BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 presents an urgent threat to global health. As the epidemic grows, prognosis prediction is essential for monitoring risky patient. It is thus important to consider gastrointestinal manifestations and the duration of symptoms as predictors of prognosis. Our aim was to determine the correlation of gastrointestinal symptoms and laboratory markers with disease outcomes and whether symptom duration varies substantially between patients. We also undertook this study to determine the optimal time to predict COVID-19 outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 190 patients with polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 were followed up until recovery. We proposed a correlation between gastrointestinal symptoms and disease severity (based on clinical data, and diagnostic investigations) to estimate the duration of symptoms as a predictor of COVID-19 prognosis. RESULTS: The prevalence of gastrointestinal symptoms was 49.5%, consisting mainly of diarrhea in 27.9% of patients. In addition, a longer disease duration and higher temperature were observed in patients with diarrhea. Symptom duration was variable, with a median of 12 days and a range of 1-55 days. Statistical analysis indicated that patients with a duration of symptoms ≥12 day had more severe symptoms and a worse prognosis. Patients who complained of diarrhea had 2.7 times the odds of a longer duration of symptoms, and those with a history of chronic lung disease have 7.2 times the odds of a longer duration of symptoms. CONCLUSION: GIT manifestations (mainly diarrhea) and the duration of symptoms of COVID-19 provide prognostic evidence of COVID-19 outcomes, irrespective of earlier categorization by the World Health Organization. Thus, patients with mild symptoms who present with diarrhea and a duration of symptoms longer than 12 days are expected to have a worse prognosis.

A new prognostic score can predict survival after hepatocellular carcinoma treatment in a cohort of 1302 Egyptian hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

INTRODUCTION: Survival of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) differs between regions and countries according to the different underlying factors and the degree of standard of care that enables early diagnosis and management. Our aim was to identify the most potent predictive factors of survival in Egyptian HCC patients receiving curative or palliative treatments. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included 1302 HCC patients attending the HCC multidisciplinary clinic, Cairo University, between February 2009 and December 2016. Clinical, laboratory, tumor characteristics, and treatment data were collected. Prognostic scores for each of the treatment categories, curative or palliative, were developed using routine laboratory tests. RESULTS: Patients were predominantly men, mean age 57.79±7.56 years. All cases developed HCC in addition to cirrhosis, mainly hepatitis C virus-related (88.2%). Most of the patients were Child-Pugh A (56.8%) or B (34.4%) and had single lesions. Transarterial chemoembolization was the most common line of treatment (42.08%). The overall median survival was 18.3 months from the date of diagnosis. Cigarette smoking, Child-Pugh score, performance status, number and size of the focal lesion, α-fetoprotein, and application of a specific treatment, particularly curative treatment, were the significant independent prognostic factors for survival. We found no impact of diabetes mellitus or hypertension on survival. Multidisciplinary HCC clinic predictive scores of survival after palliative and curative treatments were developed including independent prognostic factors, age, and portal vein status. CONCLUSION: A new Egyptian prognostic score of tumor and patients factors can predict the survival of patients with HCC after palliative and curative treatments.