Expanding Enrollment Without the Individual Mandate: Options to Bring More People into the Individual Market.

Issue: Recent changes to the Affordable Care Act, including elimination of the individual mandate penalty, the halting of federal payments for cost-sharing reductions, and expanded access to short-term plans, may reduce enrollment in the individual market. Goal: Analyze options to increase enrollment, accounting for recent policy changes. Methods: RAND's COMPARE microsimulation model is used to analyze six policies that would expand access to tax credits, increase their generosity, and fund a reinsurance program. Key Findings and Conclusions: The options would increase individual market enrollment by 400,000 to 3.2 million in 2020. Net increases in total enrollment (300,000 to 2.4 million) are smaller because of offsetting decreases in employer-sponsored insurance. The largest gains are possible through two options: large-scale investment in reinsurance, and extension of tax credits to higher-income people combined with increases in the generosity of existing tax credits. If funded through a fee on health plans, reinsurance could be implemented without increasing the federal deficit. Additional taxpayer costs would increase by $1 billion to $23 billion, depending on the policy. While enhanced tax credits for young adults would lead to small coverage gains, they would entail the lowest costs to taxpayers among the six options.

What is Single-Payer Health Care? A Review of Definitions and Proposals in the U.S.

BACKGROUND: Single-payer systems have been proposed as a health care reform alternative in the United States. However, there is no consensus on the definition of single-payer. Most definitions characterize single-payer as one entity that collects funds and pays for health care on behalf on an entire population. Increased flexibility for state health care reform may provide opportunities for state-based single-payer systems to be considered. OBJECTIVE: To explore the concept of single-payer and to describe the contents of single-payer health care proposals. DESIGN: We compared single-payer definitions and proposals. We coded the proposal text for provisions that would change how the health care system functions and could impact health care access, quality, and cost. MAIN MEASURES: The share of proposals that include changes to the financing, pooling, purchasing, and delivery of health care; and possible impact on access, quality, and costs. KEY RESULTS: We identified 25 proposals for national or state single-payer plans from journal and legislative databases. The proposals typically call for wide-ranging reform; nearly all include changes across the financing, pooling, purchasing, and delivery of health care services. Many provisions aiming to improve access, quality, and cost containment are also included, but the proposals vary in how they plan to achieve these improvements. Common provisions are related to comprehensive benefits, patient choice of providers, little or no cost sharing, the role of private insurance, provider guidelines and standards, periodic reviews of the benefits package, electronic medical records and billing, prescription drug formulary, global budgets, administrative cost thresholds, payment reform and studies, and the authority to implement cost-containment strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Single-payer systems are heterogeneous. Acknowledgment of what is considered as single-payer and the characteristics that are variable is important for nuanced policy discussions on specific reform proposals.

Extending Marketplace Tax Credits Would Make Coverage More Affordable for Middle-Income Adults.

ISSUE: Affordability of health coverage is a growing challenge for Americans facing rising premiums, deductibles, and copayments. The Affordable Care Act's tax credits make marketplace insurance more affordable for eligible lower-income individuals. However, individuals lose tax credits when their income exceeds 400 percent of the federal poverty level, creating a steep cliff. GOALS: To analyze the effects of extending eligibility for tax credits to individuals with incomes above 400 percent of the federal poverty level. METHODS: We used RAND's COMPARE microsimulation model to examine changes in insurance coverage and health care spending. KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS: Extending tax-credit eligibility increases insurance enrollment by 1.2 million, at a total federal cost of $6.0 billion. Those who would benefit from the tax-credit extension are mostly middle-income adults ages 50 to 64. These new enrollees would be healthier than current enrollees their age, which would improve the risk pool and lower premiums. Eliminating the cliff at 400 percent of the federal poverty level is one policy option that may be considered to increase affordability of insurance.

Associations between eating occasions and places of consumption among adults.

The objective of this study was to determine whether places of consumption are associated with types of eating occasions. Data on dietary behaviors of 226 adults in five U.S. cities were collected in food diaries for one week. Types of eating occasions and places of consumption were recorded. Eating occasions were defined as occurrences of meal, snack, beverage, and non-fruit dessert consumption. Nearly one-third of eating occasions occurred at non-designated eating places. Repeated measure generalized linear models were used to assess the associations between types of eating occasions and places where food was consumed. Snacking on low-nutrient foods were more likely to occur in non-designated eating places. Snacking was more likely at work than at home, and sugar sweetened beverage consumption was more likely at food service outlets than at home. The finding that places of consumption were associated with different types of eating occasions suggests that contextual characteristics of a place are important in individual eating behaviors. Policies and programs aiming to promote healthy eating should leverage contextual characteristics of eating environments.

Beyond Neighborhood Food Environments: Distance Traveled to Food Establishments in 5 US Cities, 2009-2011.

INTRODUCTION: Accurate conceptualizations of neighborhood environments are important in the design of policies and programs aiming to improve access to healthy food. Neighborhood environments are often defined by administrative units or buffers around points of interest. An individual may eat and shop for food within or outside these areas, which may not reflect accessibility of food establishments. This article examines the relevance of different definitions of food environments. METHODS: We collected data on trips to food establishments using a 1-week food and travel diary and global positioning system devices. Spatial-temporal clustering methods were applied to identify homes and food establishments visited by study participants. RESULTS: We identified 513 visits to food establishments (sit-down restaurants, fast-food/convenience stores, malls or stores, groceries/supermarkets) by 135 participants in 5 US cities. The average distance between the food establishments and homes was 2.6 miles (standard deviation, 3.7 miles). Only 34% of the visited food establishments were within participants' neighborhood census tract. Buffers of 1 or 2 miles around the home covered 55% to 65% of visited food establishments. There was a significant difference in the mean distances to food establishments types (P = .008). On average, participants traveled the longest distances to restaurants and the shortest distances to groceries/supermarkets. CONCLUSION: Many definitions of the neighborhood food environment are misaligned with individual travel patterns, which may help explain the mixed findings in studies of neighborhood food environments. Neighborhood environments defined by actual travel activity may provide more insight on how the food environment influences dietary and food shopping choices.

Household Health Care Payments Under Rate Setting, Spending Growth Target, and Single-Payer Policies.

Importance: Households have high burden of health care payments. Alternative financing approaches could reduce this burden for some households. Objective: To estimate the distribution of household health care payments across income under health care reform policies. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cross-sectional study with microsimulation used nationally representative data of the US population in 2030. Civilian, noninstitutionalized population from the 2022 Current Population Survey linked to expenditures from the 2018 and 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and 2022 National Health Expenditure Accounts were included. Exposure: Rate regulation of hospital, physician, and other health care professional payments equal to the all-payer mean in the status quo, spending growth target at 4% annual per capita growth, and single-payer health care financed through taxes. Main Outcomes and Measures: Household health care payments (out-of-pocket expenses, premiums, and taxes) as a share of compensation. Results: The synthetic population contained 154 456 records representing 339.5 million individuals, with 51% female, 7% Asian, 14% Black, 18% Hispanic White, 56% non-Hispanic White, and 5% other races and ethnicities (American Indian or Alaskan Native only; Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander only; and 2 or more races). In the status quo, mean household health care payments as a share of compensation was 24% to 27% (standard error [SE], 0.2%-1.2%) across income groups (median [IQR] 22% [4%-52%] below 139% of the federal poverty level [FPL]; 21% [4%-34%] for households above 1000% FPL [11% of the population]). Under rate setting, mean (SE) payments by households above 1000% FPL increased to 29% (0.6%) (median [IQR], 22% [6%-35%]) and decreased to 23% to 25% for other income groups. Under the spending growth target, mean (SE) payments decreased from 23% to 26% (SE, 0.2%-1.2%) across income groups. Under the single-payer system, mean (SE) payments declined to 15% (0.7%) (median [IQR], 4% [0%-30%]) for those below 139% FPL and increased to 31% (0.6%) (median [IQR], 23% [3%-39%]) for those above 1000% FPL. Uninsurance fell from 9% to 6% under rate setting due to improved Medicaid access, and to zero under the single-payer system. Conclusions and Relevance: Single-payer financing based on the current federal income tax schedule and a payroll tax could substantially increase progressivity of household payments by income. Rate setting led to slight increases in payments by higher-income households, who financed higher payment rates in Medicare and Medicaid. Spending growth targets reduced payments slightly for all households.

Environmental Scan on Consolidation Trends and Impacts in Health Care Markets.

The No Surprises Act (NSA) was created to help protect consumers with private insurance from surprise medical bills from out-of-network health care providers. The NSA requires the Department of Health and Human Services to prepare annual reports to Congress on the effects of the NSA's provisions. This article summarizes findings of an environmental scan on consolidation trends and impacts in health care markets. It describes the evidence on price, spending, quality of care, access, and wages in health care provider and insurance markets, as well as other market trends. The authors found strong evidence that hospital horizontal consolidation is associated with higher prices paid to providers and some evidence of the same for vertical consolidation of hospitals and physician practices. Health care spending is likely to increase in tandem with these price increases. Most studies find decreased or no change in quality of care associated with consolidation; however, findings differ by quality measures examined and setting. Horizontal consolidation of commercial insurers is associated with lower prices paid to providers as insurers gain market power in negotiations with providers, but the lower prices paid to providers do not appear to be passed onto consumers, who face higher premiums following insurer consolidation. There is insufficient evidence of the effects on patient access to care and health care wages. The few evaluations of state surprise billing laws have found heterogeneous effects on prices and have not directly examined effects on spending, quality, patient access, and wages.

Trends In Hospital Prices Paid By Private Health Plans Varied Substantially Across The US.

Commercial health plans pay higher prices than public payers for hospital care, which accounts for more than 5 percent of US gross domestic product. Crafting effective policy responses requires monitoring trends and identifying sources of variation. Relying on data from the Healthcare Provider Cost Reporting Information System, we describe how commercial hospital payment rates changed relative to Medicare rates during 2012-19 and how trends differed by hospital referral region (HRR). We found that average commercial-to-Medicare price ratios were relatively stable, but trends varied substantially across HRRs. Among HRRs with high price ratios in 2012, ratios increased by 38 percentage points in regions in the top quartile of growth and decreased by 38 percentage points in regions in the bottom quartile. Our findings suggest that restraining the growth rate of HRR commercial hospital price ratios to the national average during our sample period would have reduced aggregate spending by $39 billion in 2019.

Practice Expense Data Collection and Methodology: Phase II Final Report.

Each year, Medicare allocates tens of billions of dollars for indirect practice expense (PE) across services on the basis of data from the Physician Practice Information (PPI) Survey, which reflects 2006 expenses. Because these data are not regularly updated, and because there have been significant changes in the U.S. economy and health care system since 2006, there are concerns that continued reliance on PPI Survey data might result in PE payments that do not accurately capture the resources that are typically required to provide services. In this final phase of a study on PE methodology, the authors address how the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) might improve the methodology used in PE rate-setting, update data that inform PE rates, or both. The authors conclude that this information is best provided by a survey; therefore, they focus on the advantages and disadvantages of survey-based approaches. They also describe the use of a lean model survey instrument, as well as partnering with another agency to collect data. Finally, the authors describe a virtual town hall meeting held in June 2021 to give stakeholders an opportunity to provide feedback on PE data collection and rate-setting. The system of data and methods that CMS uses to support PE rate-setting is complex; thus, CMS must take into account a number of competing priorities when considering changes to the system. With this in mind, the authors offer a number of near- and longer-term recommendations.

Accounting for the burden and redistribution of health care costs: Who uses care and who pays for it.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the burden of financing health care costs and quantify redistribution among population groups. DATA SOURCES: A synthetic population using data combined from multiple sources, including the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF)/Health Research Educational Trust (HRET) Employer Health Benefits Survey, American Community Survey (ACS), and National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA). STUDY DESIGN: We estimate two dollar amounts for each individual in the synthetic population: (a) payments to finance health care services, which includes all payments by a household and their employers to finance health care, including premiums, out-of-pocket payments, federal and state taxes, and other payments; and (b) the dollar value of health care services received, which equals the amount paid to providers for those services. DATA EXTRACTION METHODS: We linked the nationally representative survey data using statistical matching. We allocated health care expenditures from the NHEA to individuals and households based on expenditures reported in the MEPS. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We show that higher-income households pay the most to finance health care in dollar amounts, but the burden of payments as a share of income is greater among lower-income households. CONCLUSIONS: Accounting for all sources of payments provides a clear picture of the burden of financing health care costs, and how that burden is spread under our current financing system.

D-CARE: The Dementia Care Study: Design of a Pragmatic Trial of the Effectiveness and Cost Effectiveness of Health System-Based Versus Community-Based Dementia Care Versus Usual Dementia Care.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Although several approaches have been developed to provide comprehensive care for persons living with dementia (PWD) and their family or friend caregivers, the relative effectiveness and cost effectiveness of community-based dementia care (CBDC) versus health system-based dementia care (CBDC) and the effectiveness of both approaches compared with usual care (UC) are unknown. DESIGN: Pragmatic randomized three-arm superiority trial. The unit of randomization is the PWD/caregiver dyad. SETTING: Four clinical trial sites (CTSs) based in academic and clinical health systems. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2,150 English- or Spanish-speaking PWD who are not receiving hospice or residing in a nursing home and their caregivers. INTERVENTIONS: Eighteen months of (1) HSDC provided by a nurse practitioner or physician's assistant dementia care specialist who works within the health system, or (2) CBDC provided by a social worker or nurse care consultant who works at a community-based organization, or (3) UC with as needed referral to the Alzheimer's Association Helpline. MEASUREMENTS: Primary outcomes: PWD behavioral symptoms and caregiver distress as measured by the Neuropsychiatric Inventory Questionnaire (NPI-Q) Severity and Modified Caregiver Strain Index scales. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: NPI-Q Distress, caregiver unmet needs and confidence, and caregiver depressive symptoms. Tertiary outcomes: PWD long-term nursing home placement rates, caregiver-reported PWD functional status, cognition, goal attainment, "time spent at home," Dementia Burden Scale-Caregiver, a composite measure of clinical benefit, Quality of Life of persons with dementia, Positive Aspects of Caregiving, and cost effectiveness using intervention costs and Medicare claims. RESULTS: The results will be reported in the spring of 2024. CONCLUSION: D-CARE will address whether emphasis on clinical support and tighter integration with other medical services has greater benefit than emphasis on social support that is tied more closely to community resources. It will also assess the effectiveness of both interventions compared with UC and will evaluate the cost effectiveness of each intervention.

Quantification of compaction-induced crystallinity reduction of a pharmaceutical solid using 19F solid-state NMR and powder X-ray diffraction.

(19)F solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) was investigated as an analytical technique to quantify the amorphous phase in a fluorine-containing pharmaceutical candidate. The crystallinity of Compound 1 was calculated using two (19)F T(1) relaxation-based methods. The first method employs both the pure amorphous and the crystalline reference standards while the second method is model independent and utilizes a single standard. The (19)F solid-state NMR results were confirmed with powder X-ray diffraction methods. From X-ray diffraction data, two linear calibration curves were obtained from blends of crystalline and amorphous Compound 1: one is based on the total integrated intensity of selected diffraction peaks and the other on the total intensity of the amorphous halo at 2theta positions that have no interference from crystalline diffraction peaks. The crystallinity of Compound 1 after compaction calculated by both (19)F solid-state NMR methods was in excellent agreement with the results from the X-ray calibration curves. (19)F solid-state NMR was shown to be a powerful technique in determining the amount of amorphous phase present in a pharmaceutical solid.

Assessing the Preparedness of the Health Care System Infrastructure in Six European Countries for an Alzheimer's Treatment.

No disease-modifying therapy is currently available for Alzheimer's disease, but therapies are in development, and one may become available in the near future. Based on results from early-stage clinical trials, therapeutic development has focused on the hypothesis that Alzheimer's dementia must be prevented rather than cured, because candidate treatments have not been able to reverse the course of dementia. Thus, current trials target patients with early-stage Alzheimer's disease. Were a therapy to become available, patients could undergo first screening for signs of early-stage memory loss or mild cognitive impairment (MCI), testing for the Alzheimer's disease pathology, and then treatment with the aim of halting or slowing progression to Alzheimer's dementia. An important health systems challenge will arise if this new treatment paradigm bears out in late-stage clinical trials. In the 28 European Union countries, we estimate that approximately 20 million individuals over age 55 have MCI, although most people have not been tested for disease pathology. Thus, when a therapy first becomes available, there would be a substantial number of existing (or prevalent) MCI patients who would require screening, diagnosis, and then treatment as quickly as possible to prevent the progression to full-blown Alzheimer's dementia. This research analyzes the preparedness of the health care systems in six European countries-France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom-to ensure timely diagnosis and treatment of patients if a disease-modifying therapy for Alzheimer's becomes available.

Purification method development for chiral separation in supercritical fluid chromatography with the solubilities in supercritical fluid chromatographic mobile phases.

A comprehensive approach was applied to develop a chiral purification method for an analyte that was found to be unusually difficult to scale-up in supercritical fluid chromatography (SFC). This was performed by studying major factors such as the solubility of an analyte in SFC mobile phases, impurity profiles, and cycle time. For this case study, the solubility in SFC mobile phase was measured by a packed column technique, coupled with a novel trapping mechanism to enhance measurement precision in SFC conditions. The solubility studies in SFC mobile phases suggested a couple of possible SFC mobile phases, in which the analyte would potentially be most soluble. The SFC methods were developed to purify a sample containing 15% of an impurity, after considering impurity profiles and cycle times of several potential methods in addition to SFC mobile phase solubility. An equal volume mixture of acetonitrile and ethanol was chosen for the final purification method, since this mixture demonstrated the relatively high SFC solubility among all solvent combinations with enhanced resolution between the analyte and the impurity as well as the shortest run time. The solubility of the compound was also determined in various organic solvents using a high throughput solubility screening system to better understand relative change of solubility from neat solution to SFC mobile phases.

The Medicare Access And CHIP Reauthorization Act: Effects On Medicare Payment Policy And Spending.

In 2015, Congress repealed the Sustainable Growth Rate formula for Medicare physician payment, eliminating mandatory payment cuts when spending exceeded what was budgeted. In its place, Congress enacted the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act (MACRA), which established a two-track performance-based payment system that encourages physicians to participate in alternative payment models. MACRA could have huge effects on health care delivery, but the nature of those effects is highly uncertain. Using the RAND Corporation's Health Care Payment and Delivery Simulation Model, we estimated the effects of MACRA on Medicare spending and utilization and examined how effects would differ under various scenarios. We estimate that MACRA will decrease Medicare spending on physician services by -$35 to -$106 billion (-2.3 percent to -7.1 percent) and change spending on hospital services by $32 to -$250 billion (0.7 percent to -5.1 percent) in 2015-30. The spending effects are critically dependent on the strength of incentives in the alternative payment models, particularly the incentives for physicians to reduce hospital spending and physician responses to MACRA payment rates.

A Comprehensive Assessment of Four Options for Financing Health Care Delivery in Oregon.

This article describes four options for financing health care for residents of the state of Oregon and compares the projected impacts and feasibility of each option. The Single Payer option and the Health Care Ingenuity Plan would achieve universal coverage, while the Public Option would add a state-sponsored plan to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace. Under the Status Quo option, Oregon would maintain its expansion of Medicaid and subsidies for nongroup coverage through the ACA Marketplace. The state could cover all residents under the Single Payer option with little change in overall health care costs, but doing so would require cuts to provider payment rates that could worsen access to care, and implementation hurdles may be insurmountable. The Health Care Ingenuity Plan, a state-managed plan featuring competition among private plans, would also achieve universal coverage and would sever the employer-health insurance link, but the provider payment rates would likely be set too high, so health care costs would increase. The Public Option would be the easiest of the three options to implement, but because it would not affect many people, it would be an incremental improvement to the Status Quo. Policymakers will need to weigh these options against their desire for change to balance the benefits with the trade-offs.

The Economic Incidence of Health Care Spending in Vermont.

In 2015, Vermont legislators may consider financing plans to implement Act 48, a law that aims to provide universal health care coverage to all Vermont residents starting in 2017. In this analysis, we estimate the economic incidence of payments for health care by Vermont residents and the value of health care benefits received by Vermont residents in 2012 and 2017, without the implementation of Act 48 reforms. The goal of the analysis was to understand how health care is currently paid for in Vermont, and to provide a baseline for understanding the possible effects of Act 48. We use data from the 2012 Vermont Household Health Interview Survey, the Vermont Health Care Uniform Evaluation and Reporting System, and administrative data on taxes to estimate payments in 2012. We then project these estimates forward to 2017, using the RAND COMPARE microsimulation to account for how health care coverage in Vermont will change as a result of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). We find that most Vermont residents receive more in health benefits than they pay for directly or through taxes. While lower-income individuals, on average, pay less than higher-income individuals, there is considerable variation across individuals in the level of payment for health care. Much of the current variation stems from the fractured nature of the health system, with some individuals receiving coverage through employers, some through the Exchange (i.e., the health insurance marketplace created by the ACA), and some through other sources. As Vermont considers health care reform, legislators may wish to consider options to reduce the degree of variation in payments made by individuals with similar income levels.

Specialty Payment Model Opportunities and Assessment: Gastroenterology and Cardiology Model Design Report.

Gastroenterology and cardiology services are common and costly among Medicare beneficiaries. Episode-based payment, which aims to create incentives for high-quality, low-cost care, has been identified as a promising alternative payment model. This article describes research related to the design of episode-based payment models for ambulatory gastroenterology and cardiology services for possible testing by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The authors analyzed Medicare claims data to describe the frequency and characteristics of gastroenterology and cardiology index procedures, the practices that delivered index procedures, and the patients that received index procedures. The results of these analyses can help inform CMS decisions about the definition of episodes in an episode-based payment model; payment adjustments for service setting, multiple procedures, or other factors; and eligibility for the payment model.

Specialty Payment Model Opportunities and Assessment: Oncology Model Design Report.

This article describes research related to the design of a payment model for specialty oncology services for possible testing by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). Cancer is a common and costly condition. Episode-based payment, which aims to create incentives for high-quality, low-cost care, has been identified as a promising alternative payment model for oncology care. Episode-based payment systems can provide flexibility to health care providers to select among the most effective and efficient treatment alternatives, including activities that are not currently reimbursed under Medicare payment policies. However, the model design also needs to ensure that high-quality care is delivered and that beneficial treatments are not withheld from patients. CMS asked MITRE and RAND to conduct analyses to inform design decisions related to an episode-based oncology model for Medicare beneficiaries undergoing chemotherapy treatment for cancer. In particular, this study focuses on analyses of Medicare claims data related to the definition of the initiation of an episode of chemotherapy, patterns of spending during and surrounding episodes of chemotherapy, and attribution of episodes of chemotherapy to physician practices. We found that the time between the primary cancer diagnosis and chemotherapy initiation varied widely across patients, ranging from one day to over seven years, with a median of 2.4 months. The average level of total monthly payments varied considerably across cancers, with the highest spending peak of $9,972 for lymphoma, and peaks of $3,109 for breast cancer and $2,135 for prostate cancer.