Socioeconomic disparities and COVID-19 vaccination acceptance: a nationwide ecologic study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the correlation between COVID-19 vaccination percentage and socioeconomic status (SES). METHODS: A nationwide ecologic study based on open-sourced, anonymized, aggregated data provided by the Israel Ministry of Health. The correlations between municipal SES, vaccination percentage and active COVID-19 cases during the vaccination campaign were analysed by using weighted Pearson correlations. To assess the adequacy of first dose vaccination rollout relative to the municipality COVID-19 disease burden, a metric termed the vaccination need ratio was devised by dividing the total number of active cases (per 10 000 people) by the vaccination percentage of the population over 60 in each municipality, and its correlation with the SES was examined. RESULTS: 23 days after initiation of the vaccination campaign, 760 916 (56.8%) individuals over the age of 60 were vaccinated in Israel with the first dose of the BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine. A negative correlation was found between the COVID-19 active case burden and the vaccination percentage of the study population in each municipality (r = -0.47, 95% CI -0.59 to -0.30). The vaccination percentage significantly correlated with the municipal SES (r = 0.83, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.87). This finding persisted but was attenuated over a 5-week period. A negative correlation between the vaccination need ratio and municipal SES (r = -0.80, 95% CI -0.88 to -0.66) was found. DISCUSSION: Lower COVID-19 vaccination percentage was associated with lower SES and high active disease burden. Vaccination efforts should focus on areas with lower SES and high disease burden to assure equality of vaccine allocation and potentially provide a more diligent disease mitigation.

Development and validation of a machine learning model predicting illness trajectory and hospital utilization of COVID-19 patients: A nationwide study.

OBJECTIVE: The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to severe strain on hospital capacity in many countries. We aim to develop a model helping planners assess expected COVID-19 hospital resource utilization based on individual patient characteristics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We develop a model of patient clinical course based on an advanced multistate survival model. The model predicts the patient's disease course in terms of clinical states-critical, severe, or moderate. The model also predicts hospital utilization on the level of entire hospitals or healthcare systems. We cross-validated the model using a nationwide registry following the day-by-day clinical status of all hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Israel from March 1 to May 2, 2020 (n = 2703). RESULTS: Per-day mean absolute errors for predicted total and critical care hospital bed utilization were 4.72 ± 1.07 and 1.68 ± 0.40, respectively, over cohorts of 330 hospitalized patients; areas under the curve for prediction of critical illness and in-hospital mortality were 0.88 ± 0.04 and 0.96 ± 0.04, respectively. We further present the impact of patient influx scenarios on day-by-day healthcare system utilization. We provide an accompanying R software package. DISCUSSION: The proposed model accurately predicts total and critical care hospital utilization. The model enables evaluating impacts of patient influx scenarios on utilization, accounting for the state of currently hospitalized patients and characteristics of incoming patients. We show that accurate hospital load predictions were possible using only a patient's age, sex, and day-by-day clinical state (critical, severe, or moderate). CONCLUSIONS: The multistate model we develop is a powerful tool for predicting individual-level patient outcomes and hospital-level utilization.

The Israel National Bariatric Surgery Registry: the inception process.

BACKGROUND: Obesity rates in Israel are increasing, and so is the popularity of bariatric surgeries, which reached in 2017 a prevalence rate of 1428.7 surgeries per million citizens. However, data regarding patient characteristics and surgery outcomes, including complications, are limited and the procedure requires monitoring. OBJECTIVES: To establish a national bariatric surgery registry with high reliability and validity. SETTING: All private and public medical centers performing bariatric surgeries in the state of Israel. METHODS: The Israeli Bariatric Surgery Registry (IBSR) was established in June 2013 by the Israel Center for Disease Control in the Ministry of Health, in collaboration with the Israel Bariatric Surgery Society. An official directive of the Director General of the Ministry of Health as of 2013 made reporting of all bariatric surgeries carried out in Israel mandatory. The bariatric surgery centers relay clinical and surgical information to the IBSR. Presurgery and follow-up outcome information was retrieved from all 4 health maintenance organizations. RESULTS: All 32 certified bariatric units report to the national IBSR. National reporting rates increased from 46.3% in 2013 to 98.7% in 2017. Adherence to bariatric surgery guidelines also increased from 72.8% in 2013 to 98.7% in 2017, and fewer patients not fulfilling the guidelines underwent bariatric surgeries in 2017. Importantly, the considerable annual preregistry increase in surgical procedures has been halted. Registry data regarding obesity-related co-morbidities were validated against hospital files with high Cohen's kappa coefficients for hypertension (r = .8), diabetes (r = .8), and sleep apnea (r = .7). CONCLUSIONS: The national IBSR is an identified, validated, mandatory database with access to other national databases, which enables quality assurance of bariatric surgeries in Israel and short- and long-term postoperative follow-up.