Managing understandings of palliative care as more than care immediately before death: Evidence from observational analysis of consultations.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that public, and some professional, understandings of palliative care are limited to care provided immediately before death, which contrasts palliative care's scope as care provided across a range of illness stages. OBJECTIVE: To examine how clinicians manage patients' understandings of palliative care during initial consultations. DESIGN: Initial palliative care consultations were video-recorded and analysed using conversation analytic methods. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Consultations were recorded in a specialist palliative care outpatient unit within an Australian public hospital. Participants included 20 newly referred patients and their families, and three palliative care clinicians. RESULTS: During initial consultations, it was observed that specialist palliative care clinicians frequently managed the possibility that patients may understand palliative care as limited to care provided immediately before death. Clinicians used recurrent practices that seemed designed to pre-empt and contradict patients' possible narrow understandings. When discussing the palliative care inpatient unit, clinicians recurrently explained inpatient care could include active treatment and referred to the possibility of being discharged. These practices contradict possible understandings that future admission to the inpatient unit would be solely for care immediately before death. DISCUSSION: The findings demonstrate that palliative care clinicians are aware of possible narrow understandings of their discipline among members of the public. The practices identified show how clinicians pre-emptively manage these understandings to patients newly referred to palliative care. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight scope for greater partnership with teams referring patients to palliative care, to assist patients in understanding the range of reasons for their referral. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: The observational method of conversation analysis provides direct insight into matters that are relevant for patients, as raised in their consultations with clinicians. This direct evidence enables analysis of their lived experience, as it occurs, and grounds analysis in observable details of participants' conduct, rather than interpretations of subjective experiences. The patients' contributions, therefore, were to allow observation into their initial palliative care consultations.

Biopsychosocial contexts of timely and adequate prenatal care utilization among women with criminal legal involvement and opioid use disorder.

OBJECTIVE: Pregnant women with criminal legal involvement and opioid use disorder (CL-OUD) living in non-urban regions may be at risk for complex biomedical, psychological, and social barriers to prenatal care and healthy pregnancy. Yet, limited research has explored prenatal care utilization patterns among this subpopulation. This study describes the biopsychosocial factors of pregnant women with a history of criminal legal involvement and opioid use disorder (CL-OUD) associated with timely prenatal care initiation and adequate prenatal care utilization (APNCU). METHODS: Analyses were conducted on a subsample of medical record data from an observational comparative effectiveness study of medication treatment models for pregnant women with diagnosed opioid use disorder (OUD) who received prenatal care in Northern New England between 2015 and 2022. The subsample included women aged ≥ 16 years with documented criminal legal involvement. Analyses included χ2, Fisher exact tests, and multiple logistic regression to assess differences in timely prenatal care and APNCU associated with biopsychosocial factors selected by backwards stepwise regression. RESULTS: Among 317 women with CL-OUD, 203 (64.0%) received timely prenatal care and 174 (54.9%) received adequate care. Timely prenatal care was associated with having two or three prior pregnancies (aOR 2.37, 95% CI 1.07-5.20), receiving buprenorphine at care initiation (aOR 1.85, 95% CI 1.01-3.41), having stable housing (aOR 2.49, 95% CI 1.41-4.41), and being mandated to court diversion (aOR 4.06, 95% CI 1.54-10.7) or community supervision (aOR 2.05, 95% CI 1.16-3.63). APNCU was associated with having a pregnancy-related medical condition (aOR 2.17, 95% CI 1.27-3.71), receiving MOUD throughout the entire prenatal care period (aOR 3.40, 95% CI 1.45-7.94), having a higher number of psychiatric diagnoses (aOR 1.35, 95% CI 1.07-1.70), attending a rurally-located prenatal care practice (aOR 2.14, 95% CI 1.22-3.76), having stable housing (aOR 1.94, 95% CI 1.06-3.54), and being mandated to court diversion (aOR 3.11, 95% CI 1.19-8.15). CONCLUSION: While not causal, results suggest that timely and adequate prenatal care among women with CL-OUD may be supported by OUD treatment, comorbid indications for care, stable access to social resources, and maintained residence in the community (i.e., community-based alternatives to incarceration).

Pre- and on-treatment lactate dehydrogenase as a prognostic and predictive biomarker in advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: The survival outcomes of patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are variable. This study investigated whether pre- and on-treatment lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) could better prognosticate and select patients for ICI therapy. METHODS: Using data from the POPLAR and OAK trials of atezolizumab versus docetaxel in previously treated advanced NSCLC, the authors assessed the prognostic and predictive value of pretreatment LDH (less than or equal to vs greater than the upper limit of normal). They further examined changes in on-treatment LDH by performing landmark analyses and estimated overall survival (OS) distributions according to the LDH level stratified by the response category (complete response [CR]/partial response [PR] vs stable disease [SD]). They repeated pretreatment analyses in subgroups defined by the programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) status. RESULTS: This study included 1327 patients with available pretreatment LDH. Elevated pretreatment LDH was associated with an adverse prognosis regardless of treatment (hazard ratio [HR] for atezolizumab OS, 1.49; P = .0001; HR for docetaxel OS, 1.30; P = .004; P for treatment by LDH interaction = .28). Findings for elevated pretreatment LDH were similar for patients with positive PD-L1 expression treated with atezolizumab. Persistently elevated on-treatment LDH was associated with a 1.3- to 2.8-fold increased risk of death at weeks 6, 12, 18, and 24 regardless of treatment. Elevated LDH at 6 weeks was associated with significantly shorter OS regardless of radiological response (HR for CR/PR, 2.10; P = .04; HR for SD, 1.50; P < .01), with similar findings observed at 12 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: In previously treated advanced NSCLC, elevated pretreatment LDH is an independent adverse prognostic marker. There is no evidence that pretreatment LDH predicts ICI benefit. Persistently elevated on-treatment LDH is associated with worse OS despite radiologic response.

The Impact of Surveillance Imaging Frequency on the Detection of Distant Disease for Patients with Resected Stage III Melanoma.

BACKGROUND: It is not known whether there is a survival benefit associated with more frequent surveillance imaging in patients with resected American Joint Committee on Cancer stage III melanoma. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate distant disease-free survival (DDFS), melanoma-specific survival (MSS), post distant recurrence MSS (dMSS), and overall survival for patients with resected stage III melanoma undergoing regular computed tomography (CT) or positron emission tomography (PET)/CT surveillance imaging at different intervals. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A closely followed longitudinal cohort of patients with resected stage IIIA-D disease treated at a tertiary referral center underwent 3- to 4-monthly, 6-monthly, or 12-monthly surveillance imaging between 2000 and 2017. Survival outcomes were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and log-rank tests assessed the significance of survival differences between imaging frequency groups. RESULTS: Of 473 patients (IIIA, 19%; IIIB, 31%; IIIC, 49%; IIID, 1%) 30% underwent 3- to 4-monthly imaging, 10% underwent 6-monthly imaging, and 60% underwent 12-monthly imaging. After a median follow-up of 6.2 years, distant recurrence was recorded in 252 patients (53%), with 40% detected by surveillance CT or PET/CT, 43% detected clinically, and 17% with another imaging modality. Median DDFS was 5.1 years (95% confidence interval 3.9-6.6). Among 139 IIIC patients who developed distant disease, the median dMSS was 4.4 months shorter in those who underwent 3- to 4-monthly imaging than those who underwent 12-monthly imaging. CONCLUSION: Selecting patients at higher risk of distant recurrence for more frequent surveillance imaging yields a higher proportion of imaging-detected distant recurrences but is not associated with improved survival. A randomized comparison of low versus high frequency imaging is needed.

Long term risk of distant metastasis in women with non-metastatic breast cancer and survival after metastasis detection: a population-based linked health records study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the long term risk of distant metastases (DM) for women with initial diagnoses of non-metastatic breast cancer; to estimate breast cancer-specific and overall survival for women with DM. DESIGN: Population-based health record linkage study. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Women diagnosed with localised or regional primary breast cancer recorded in the NSW Cancer Registry, 2001-2002. MAJOR OUTCOME MEASURES: Time from breast cancer diagnosis to first DM, time from first DM to death from breast cancer. SECONDARY OUTCOME: time to death from any cause. RESULTS: 6338 women were diagnosed with non-metastatic breast cancer (localised, 3885; regional, 2453; median age, 59 years [IQR, 49-69 years]). DM were recorded (to 30 September 2016) for 1432 women (23%; median age, 62 years [IQR, 51-73 years]). The 14-year cumulative DM incidence was 22.2% (95% CI, 21.1-23.2%; localised disease: 14.3% [95% CI, 13.2-15.4%]; regional disease: 34.7% [95% CI, 32.8-36.6%]). Annual hazard of DM was highest during the second year after breast cancer diagnosis (localised disease: 2.8%; 95% CI, 2.3-3.3%; regional disease: 9.1%; 95% CI, 7.8-10.3%); from year five it was about 1% for those with localised disease, from year seven about 2% for women with regional disease at diagnosis. Five years after diagnosis, the 5-year conditional probability of DM was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7-5.1%) for women with localised and 10.4% (95% CI, 9.1-12.0%) for those with regional disease at diagnosis. Median breast cancer-specific survival from first DM record date was 28 months (95% CI, 25-31 months); the annual hazard of breast cancer death after the first DM record declined from 36% (95% CI, 33-40%) during the first year to 14% (95% CI, 11-18%) during the fourth year since detection. CONCLUSIONS: DM risk declines with time from diagnosis of non-metastatic breast cancer, and the annual risk of dying from breast cancer declines with time from initial DM detection. These findings can be used to inform patients at follow-up about changes in risk over time since diagnosis and for planning health services.

Does Cannabidiol Have a Benefit as a Supportive Care Drug in Cancer?

OPINION STATEMENT: Cannabinoids have been purported as having a wide range of therapeutic uses although currently, there is minimal evidence to support these claims. Patients with advanced cancer experience many distressing symptoms, with some turning to medicinal cannabis to help alleviate these. Focus has fallen on cannabidiol (CBD) as a potential treatment for a variety of symptoms in advanced cancer due to the lack of psychoactive side effects and the potential molecular mechanisms of action associated with this cannabinoid. Many cannabinoid products are easily available in the community, and more countries are legalizing or allowing over the counter products. Studies show that CBD is generally well tolerated, but there are many potential drug interactions that have not been well studied. Few studies have specifically looked at the role of CBD in treating cancer symptoms, with most focusing on combination cannabinoid products. There are currently many unknowns associated with CBD, including which symptoms it might be best for, appropriate dosing, and route of administration. This is especially important in advanced cancer where patients often have significant organ dysfunction and frailty that could impact on the pharmacology of CBD. A small pilot study has shown promise for a role of CBD in the psychological symptoms associated with advanced cancer. Further research is currently underway to further clarify the role of CBD in this setting and to understand how best it might help our patients. Currently we advocate that CBD be used in supervised clinical trials, so that efficacy and adverse effects can be closely monitored.

PD-L1 expression as a prognostic marker in patients treated with chemotherapy for metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer.

Background: In metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (mNSCLC), PD-L1 expression is associated with benefit from immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy. However, the significance of PD-L1 expression in chemotherapy-treated patients is uncertain. Methods: Using the chemotherapy control arm of first-line randomized trials, a meta-analysis of the association between efficacy outcomes and PD-L1 status was performed, stratified by assay due to inter-assay differences. Results: Across 12 trials and 4378 patients, overall survival (OS) was superior in high PD-L1 versus negative tumors and low versus negative according to 22C3/28-8 assays. When classified by SP142 assay, no significant difference in response or survival was seen between PD-L1 groups. Conclusion: In mNSCLC, high PD-L1-expressing tumors are associated with longer OS and improved objective rate when treated with chemotherapy. Inter-assay variability impacts outcome results.

Biomarkers are naturally occurring cancer traits that can predict certain events. PD-L1 expression is a biomarker used in advanced lung cancer to predict benefit from immunotherapy. However, the association between PD-L1expression and chemotherapy is unclear. The authors analyzed data from 14 large clinical trials and found that PD-L1 expression could also be used to define a type of lung cancer that responds better to chemotherapy.

Automated evaluation of psychotherapy skills using speech and language technologies.

With the growing prevalence of psychological interventions, it is vital to have measures which rate the effectiveness of psychological care to assist in training, supervision, and quality assurance of services. Traditionally, quality assessment is addressed by human raters who evaluate recorded sessions along specific dimensions, often codified through constructs relevant to the approach and domain. This is, however, a cost-prohibitive and time-consuming method that leads to poor feasibility and limited use in real-world settings. To facilitate this process, we have developed an automated competency rating tool able to process the raw recorded audio of a session, analyzing who spoke when, what they said, and how the health professional used language to provide therapy. Focusing on a use case of a specific type of psychotherapy called "motivational interviewing", our system gives comprehensive feedback to the therapist, including information about the dynamics of the session (e.g., therapist's vs. client's talking time), low-level psychological language descriptors (e.g., type of questions asked), as well as other high-level behavioral constructs (e.g., the extent to which the therapist understands the clients' perspective). We describe our platform and its performance using a dataset of more than 5000 recordings drawn from its deployment in a real-world clinical setting used to assist training of new therapists. Widespread use of automated psychotherapy rating tools may augment experts' capabilities by providing an avenue for more effective training and skill improvement, eventually leading to more positive clinical outcomes.

Performance of Long-Term CT and PET/CT Surveillance for Detection of Distant Recurrence in Patients with Resected Stage IIIA-D Melanoma.

BACKGROUND: Follow-up for patients with resected stage IIIA-D melanoma may include computed tomography (CT) or positron emission tomography (PET)/CT imaging to identify distant metastases. The aim of this study was to evaluate the test performance over follow-up time, of structured 6- and 12-monthly follow-up imaging schedules in these patients. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of consecutive resected stage IIIA-D melanoma patients from Melanoma Institute Australia (2000-2017). Patients were followed until a confirmed diagnosis of distant metastasis, end of follow-up schedule, or death. Test accuracy was evaluated by cross-classifying the results of the test against a composite reference standard of histopathology, cytology, radiologic imaging, and/or clinical follow-up, and then quantified longitudinally using logistic regression models with random effects. RESULTS: In total, 1373 imaging tests were performed among 332 patients. Distant metastases were detected in 110 (33%) patients during a median follow-up of 61 months (interquartile range 38-86), and first detected by imaging in 86 (78%) patients. 152 (68%) patients had at least one false-positive result. Sensitivity of the schedule over 5 years was 79% [95% confidence interval (CI) 70-86%] and specificity was 88% (95% CI 86-90%). There was no evidence of a significant difference in test performance over follow-up time or by American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) substage. The positive predictive value ranged between 33 and 48% over follow-up time, reflecting a ratio of 1:2 false-positives per true-positive finding. CONCLUSIONS: Regular 6- or 12-monthly surveillance imaging using CT or PET/CT has reasonable and consistent sensitivity and specificity over 5-year follow-up for resected stage IIIA-D melanoma patients. These data are useful when discussing the risks and benefits of long-term follow-up.

Effects of anxiety sensitivity on cannabis, alcohol, and nicotine use among adolescents: evaluating pathways through anxiety, withdrawal symptoms, and coping motives.

Anxiety sensitivity (AS) is a promising intervention target due to its relevance to negative health behaviors broadly, and substance use specifically. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the direct and indirect pathways through which elevated AS could relate to recent substance use among a national adolescent sample recruited via social-media. As predicted, AS was indirectly associated with greater likelihood of using alcohol, cigarettes, and electronic nicotine delivery systems in the past-month through anxiety symptoms. Regarding cannabis, AS was directly related to increased likelihood of past-month cannabis use; however, the indirect relation between AS and likelihood of past-month use via anxiety symptoms was not significant. Through chained indirect effects, AS was related positively to past-month alcohol and cannabis use via anxiety symptoms and coping-related motives, and through withdrawal symptoms and coping-related motives. Study findings can be used to generate hypotheses on potential pathways through which AS could prospectively relate to substance use among youth.

The impact of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio on risk reclassification of patients with advanced renal cell cancer to guide risk-directed therapy.

Background: An elevated neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is associated with poor prognosis in advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We examined whether the addition of NLR improves the risk reclassification of advanced RCC using current prognostic tools from the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) and International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium (IMDC).Methods: Using randomised data from the COMPARZ trial of first-line pazopanib vs. sunitinib in advanced RCC, we constructed multivariable models containing MSKCC and IMDC predictor variables with and without NLR. We evaluated model discrimination using the concordance index (C-index). We computed net reclassification improvement to quantify patient reclassification into low/intermediate/poor risk groups with the addition of NLR.Results: Of 1102 patients, NLR ≥ 5 (16%) was associated with shorter survival adjusting for MSKCC variables (adjusted HR 1.89, p < .001). Adding NLR to MSKCC variables increased the C-index by 0.01. Among patients who died before 24 months (N = 415), adding NLR reclassified 8% and 2% to a higher and lower risk category, respectively. Among those alive at 24 months (N = 636), adding NLR reclassified 4% and 1% to a higher and lower risk category, respectively. This finding translates to a net benefit of eight additional patients who die within 24 months correctly identified as poor risk per 1000 patients tested. We obtained similar results when evaluating NLR with IMDC variables.Conclusions: NLR does not substantially improve risk reclassification over pre-existing prognostic tools. MSKCC and IMDC classifications remain the standard for guiding risk-directed therapy and trial stratification of patients with advanced RCC.

Prediction of pre-eclampsia in nulliparous women using routinely collected maternal characteristics: a model development and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend identifying in early pregnancy women at elevated risk of pre-eclampsia. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a pre-eclampsia risk prediction model for nulliparous women attending routine antenatal care "the Western Sydney (WS) model"; and to compare its performance with the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) risk factor-list approach for classifying women as high-risk. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included all nulliparous women who gave birth in three public hospitals in the Western-Sydney-Local-Health-District, Australia 2011-2014. Using births from 2011 to 2012, multivariable logistic regression incorporated established maternal risk factors to develop and internally validate the WS model. The WS model was then externally validated using births from 2013 to 2014, assessing its discrimination and calibration. We fitted the final WS model for all births from 2011 to 2014, and compared its accuracy in predicting pre-eclampsia with the NICE approach. RESULTS: Among 12,395 births to nulliparous women in 2011-2014, there were 293 (2.4%) pre-eclampsia events. The WS model included: maternal age, body mass index, ethnicity, multiple pregnancy, family history of pre-eclampsia, autoimmune disease, chronic hypertension and chronic renal disease. In the validation sample (6201 births), the model c-statistic was 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.65-0.75). The observed:expected ratio for pre-eclampsia was 0.91, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test p-value of 0.20. In the entire study sample of 12,395 births, 374 (3.0%) women had a WS model-estimated pre-eclampsia risk ≥8%, the pre-specified risk-threshold for considering aspirin prophylaxis. Of these, 54 (14.4%) developed pre-eclampsia (sensitivity 18% (14-23), specificity 97% (97-98)). Using the NICE approach, 1173 (9.5%) women were classified as high-risk, of which 107 (9.1%) developed pre-eclampsia (sensitivity 37% (31-42), specificity 91% (91-92)). The final model showed similar accuracy to the NICE approach when using lower risk-threshold of ≥4% to classify women as high-risk for pre-eclampsia. CONCLUSION: The WS risk model that combines readily-available maternal characteristics achieved modest performance for prediction of pre-eclampsia in nulliparous women. The model did not outperform the NICE approach, but has the advantage of providing individualised absolute risk estimates, to assist with counselling, inform decisions for further testing, and consideration of aspirin prophylaxis.

Development and temporal validation of a prognostic model for 1-year clinical outcome after decompression surgery for lumbar disc herniation.

PURPOSE: Surgeons need tools to provide individualised estimates of surgical outcomes and the uncertainty surrounding these, to convey realistic expectations to the patient. This study developed and validated prognostic models for patients undergoing surgical treatment of lumbar disc herniation, to predict outcomes 1 year after surgery, and implemented these models in an online prediction tool. METHODS: Using the data of 1244 patients from a large spine unit, LASSO and linear regression models were fitted with 90% upper prediction limits, to predict scores on the Core Outcome Measures Index, and back and leg pain. Candidate predictors included sociodemographic factors, baseline symptoms, medical history, and surgeon characteristics. Temporal validation was conducted on 364 more recent patients at the same unit, by examining the proportion of observed outcomes exceeding the threshold of the 90% upper prediction limit (UPL), and by calculating mean bias and other calibration measures. RESULTS: Poorer outcome was predicted by obesity, previous spine surgery, and having basic obligatory (rather than private) insurance. In the validation data, fewer than 12% of outcomes were above the 90% UPL. Calibration plots for the model validation showed values for mean bias < 0.5 score points and regression slopes close to 1. CONCLUSION: While the model accuracy was good overall, the prediction intervals indicated considerable predictive uncertainty on the individual level. Implementation studies will assess the clinical usefulness of the online tool. Updating the models with additional predictors may improve the accuracy and precision of outcome predictions. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.

The association between ethnicity and pre-eclampsia in Australia: A multicentre retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Rates of pre-eclampsia vary between countries and certain ethnic groups. However, there is limited evidence about the impact of ethnicity on risk of pre-eclampsia, beyond established clinical risk factors. AIMS: To assess the association between ethnicity and pre-eclampsia in Australia's diverse multi-ethnic population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the ObstetriX database. We included all women with a birth between January 2011 and December 2014, at Auburn, Blacktown/Mount-Druitt and Westmead Hospitals in the Western Sydney Local Health District. We estimated the pre-eclampsia rate overall, and by maternal ethnic group, defined by country of birth and primary language. We developed multivariable logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for pre-eclampsia, adjusting for maternal age, body mass index, autoimmune disease, chronic hypertension, chronic renal disease, diabetes mellitus (type 1 or 2), and multiple pregnancy. A secondary analysis was restricted to nulliparous women. RESULTS: There were 40 824 women evaluated, including 12 743 nulliparous women. Of these, 1448 (3.5%) developed pre-eclampsia (range: Australian/New Zealand-born English speakers 735/15 422 (4.8%); North-East Asian women 51/4470 (1.1%)). Relative to Australian/New Zealand-born English speakers, immigrants had a lower risk of pre-eclampsia overall (adjusted OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.60-0.75); as did the three largest immigrant groups examined: Southern Asian (0.73; 0.62-0.85), Middle-Eastern/African (0.55; 0.47-0.66) and North-East Asian (0.33; 0.25-0.45) women. Findings were similar for nulliparous women. CONCLUSIONS: Certain immigrant groups are at lower risk of pre-eclampsia than Australian/New Zealand-born English-speaking women. Understanding why this is so may lead to better screening and preventive strategies in higher-risk women.

Survival outcomes for Australian women receiving trastuzumab for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer following (neo)adjuvant trastuzumab: a national population-based observational study (2006-2014).

BACKGROUND: Patients treated with (neo)adjuvant trastuzumab who relapse and receive trastuzumab for metastatic breast cancer (MBC) are a growing population with little outcome data given their exclusion from most clinical trials. We aim to estimate survival outcomes for this trastuzumab 'pre-treated' population. METHODS: Population-based study of Australian women receiving trastuzumab for HER2-positive MBC between 2006 and 2014, who also received (neo)adjuvant trastuzumab. We used Kaplan-Meier methods to estimate the following: overall survival (OS) from initiation of trastuzumab for MBC; duration of trastuzumab for MBC; and time from last (neo)adjuvant trastuzumab to first trastuzumab for MBC. RESULTS: Of 3199 patients dispensed trastuzumab for MBC, 634 (20%) had received (neo)adjuvant traztuzumab. Pre-treated patients had a median (interquartile range) OS of 21.8 months (10.9-51.6), trastuzumab duration of 12.8 months (4.7-17.5), and time from last (neo)adjuvant trastuzumab to first trastuzumab for MBC of 15.6 months (6.5-28.6). Median OS for patients initiating trastuzumab <12 months and ⩾12 months from their last (neo)adjuvant trastuzumab were 17.1 months and 24.8 months, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients starting trastuzumab for MBC following (neo)adjuvant trastuzumab had a median treatment duration of 1 year and OS of almost 2 years. These data help inform clinical practice and service planning for this under-researched population.

Long-term survival in trastuzumab-treated patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer: real-world outcomes and treatment patterns in a whole-of-population Australian cohort (2001-2016).

PURPOSE: Patients treated with trastuzumab for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer (HER2+MBC) are living longer, but there is little information on their outcomes and treatment experience beyond the median survival from clinical trials and real-world observational studies. We aim to describe the real-world treatment patterns and overall survival (OS) for women surviving five or more years from initiation of trastuzumab for HER2+MBC. METHODS: This is a retrospective, whole-of-population cohort study of women initiating trastuzumab for HER2+MBC between 2001 and 2011, followed to 2016. We defined long-term survivors (LTS) as those patients surviving ≥ 5 years from trastuzumab initiation. We used dispensing claims to describe timing of cancer treatments used by LTS and to estimate time on and off HER2-targeted therapies, and OS from trastuzumab initiation for HER2+MBC. RESULTS: Of 4177 women initiating trastuzumab for HER2+MBC, 1082 (26%) survived ≥ 5 years. Median age for LTS was 54 years (IQR 46-63). At a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 36% of LTS died; their conditional probability of surviving an additional 5 years was 55%. Median time on trastuzumab and all HER2-targeted therapy was 58.9 months (27.6-88.1) and 69.1 months (35.6-124.5), respectively. 85% of LTS had a period off HER2 therapy, lasting a median of 30.4 months (8.2-NR). CONCLUSIONS: LTS generally receive HER2-targeted therapies for periods of time longer than in clinical trials, but most LTS also had breaks in treatment. More research is needed to understand the effects of long-term treatment and to identify patients who may be able to safely discontinue HER2-targeted therapy.

Rapid Rule-out of Acute Myocardial Infarction With a Single High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Measurement Below the Limit of Detection: A Collaborative Meta-analysis.

Background: High-sensitivity assays for cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) are sometimes used to rapidly rule out acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Purpose: To estimate the ability of a single hs-cTnT concentration below the limit of detection (<0.005 µg/L) and a nonischemic electrocardiogram (ECG) to rule out AMI in adults presenting to the emergency department (ED) with chest pain. Data Sources: EMBASE and MEDLINE without language restrictions (1 January 2008 to 14 December 2016). Study Selection: Cohort studies involving adults presenting to the ED with possible acute coronary syndrome in whom an ECG and hs-cTnT measurements were obtained and AMI outcomes adjudicated during initial hospitalization. Data Extraction: Investigators of studies provided data on the number of low-risk patients (no new ischemia on ECG and hs-cTnT measurements <0.005 µg/L) and the number who had AMI during hospitalization (primary outcome) or a major adverse cardiac event (MACE) or death within 30 days (secondary outcomes), by risk classification (low or not low risk). Two independent epidemiologists rated risk of bias of studies. Data Synthesis: Of 9241 patients in 11 cohort studies, 2825 (30.6%) were classified as low risk. Fourteen (0.5%) low-risk patients had AMI. Sensitivity of the risk classification for AMI ranged from 87.5% to 100% in individual studies. Pooled estimated sensitivity was 98.7% (95% CI, 96.6% to 99.5%). Sensitivity for 30-day MACEs ranged from 87.9% to 100%; pooled sensitivity was 98.0% (CI, 94.7% to 99.3%). No low-risk patients died. Limitation: Few studies, variation in timing and methods of reference standard troponin tests, and heterogeneity of risk and prevalence of AMI across studies. Conclusion: A single hs-cTnT concentration below the limit of detection in combination with a nonischemic ECG may successfully rule out AMI in patients presenting to EDs with possible emergency acute coronary syndrome. Primary Funding Source: Emergency Care Foundation.

The prognostic value of TP53 mutations in oesophageal adenocarcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To clarify the prognostic role of tumour protein 53 (TP53) mutations in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) as there is a need for biomarkers that assist in guiding management for patients with OAC. DESIGN: A systematic review was conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed and Current Contents Connect to identify studies published between January 1990 and February 2015 of oesophageal cancer populations (with OAC diagnoses >50% of cases) that measured tumoural TP53 status and reported hazard ratios (HR), or adequate data for estimation of HR for survival for TP53-defined subgroups. Risk of bias for HR estimates was assessed using prespecified criteria for the appraisal of relevant domains as defined by the Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group including adherence to Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation and REporting recommendations for tumor MARKer prognostic studies guidelines, as well as assay method used (direct TP53 mutation assessment vs immunohistochemistry) and adjustment for standard prognostic factors. A pooled HR and 95% CI were calculated using a random-effects model. RESULTS: Sixteen eligible studies (11 with OAC only and 5 mixed histology cohorts) including 888 patients were identified. TP53 mutations were associated with reduced survival (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.90, I2=33%). A greater prognostic effect was observed in a sensitivity analysis of those studies that reported survival for OAC-only cohorts and were assessed at low risk of bias (HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.35 to 3.31, I2=0%). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with OAC and TP53 gene mutations have reduced overall survival compared with patients without these mutations, and this effect is independent of tumour stage.

How will transitioning from cytology to HPV testing change the balance between the benefits and harms of cervical cancer screening? Estimates of the impact on cervical cancer, treatment rates and adverse obstetric outcomes in Australia, a high vaccination coverage country.

Primary HPV screening enables earlier diagnosis of cervical lesions compared to cytology, however, its effect on the risk of treatment and adverse obstetric outcomes has not been extensively investigated. We estimated the cumulative lifetime risk (CLR) of cervical cancer and excisional treatment, and change in adverse obstetric outcomes in HPV unvaccinated women and cohorts offered vaccination (>70% coverage in 12-13 years) for the Australian cervical screening program. Two-yearly cytology screening (ages 18-69 years) was compared to 5-yearly primary HPV screening with partial genotyping for HPV16/18 (ages 25-74 years). A dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, cervical screening and treatment for precancerous lesions was coupled with an individual-based simulation of obstetric complications. For cytology screening, the CLR of cervical cancer diagnosis, death and treatment was estimated to be 0.649%, 0.198% and 13.4% without vaccination and 0.182%, 0.056% and 6.8%, in vaccinated women, respectively. For HPV screening, relative reductions of 33% and 22% in cancer risk for unvaccinated and vaccinated women are predicted, respectively, compared to cytology. Without the implementation of vaccination, a 4% increase in treatment risk for HPV versus cytology screening would have been expected, implying a possible increase in pre-term delivery (PTD) and low birth weight (LBW) events of 19 to 35 and 14 to 37, respectively, per 100,000 unvaccinated women. However, in vaccinated women, treatment risk will decrease by 13%, potentially leading to 4 to 41 fewer PTD events and from 2 more to 52 fewer LBW events per 100,000 vaccinated women. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. HPV screening starting at age 25 in populations with high vaccination coverage, is therefore expected to both improve the benefits (further decrease risk of cervical cancer) and reduce the harms (reduce treatments and possible obstetric complications) associated with cervical cancer screening.

Reversibility of nerve root sedimentation sign in lumbar spinal stenosis patients after decompression surgery.

PURPOSE: The nerve root sedimentation sign (SedSign) is a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sign for the diagnosis of lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). It is included in the assessment of LSS to help determine whether decompression surgery is indicated. Assessment of the reversibility of the SedSign after surgery may also have clinical implications for the decision about whether or not a secondary operation or revision is needed. This study investigated if lumbar decompression leads to a reversal of the SedSign in patients with LSS and a positive SedSign pre-operatively; and if a reversal is associated with more favourable clinical outcomes. If reversal of the SedSign is usual after sufficient decompression surgery, a new positive SedSign could be used as an indicator of new stenosis in previously operated patients. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of 30 LSS patients with a positive pre-operative SedSign undergoing decompression surgery with or without instrumented fusion was undertaken to assess the presence of nerve root sedimentation (=negative SedSign) on MRI at 3 months post-operation. Functional limitation (Oswestry Disability Index, ODI), back and leg pain (Visual Analogue Scale, VAS), and treadmill walking distance were also compared pre- and 3 months post-operatively. The short follow-up period was chosen to exclude adjacent segment disease and the potential influence of surgical technique on clinical outcomes at longer follow-up times. RESULTS: 30 patients [median age 73 years (interquartile range (IQR) 65-79), 16 males] showed a median pre-operative ODI of 66 (IQR 52-78), a median VAS of 8 (IQR 7-9), and a median walking distance of 0 m (IQR 0-100). Three months post-operation 27 patients had a negative SedSign. In this group, we found improved clinical outcomes at follow-up: median post-operative ODI of 21 (IQR 12-26), median VAS of 2 (IQR 2-4), and median walking distance of 1000 m (IQR 500-1000). These changes were all statistically significant (p < 0.001). Three patients had a positive SedSign at 3-month follow-up due to epidural fat (n = 2) or a dural cyst following an intra-operative dural tear (n = 1), but also showed improvements in clinical outcomes for ODI, VAS and walking distance. CONCLUSION: The reversibility of a pre-operative positive SedSign was demonstrated after decompression of the affected segmental level and associated with an improved clinical outcome. A persisting positive SedSign could be the result of incomplete decompression or surgical complications. A new positive SedSign after sufficient decompression surgery could be used as an indicator of new stenosis in previously operated patients.