Fluctuation effects in metapopulation models: percolation and pandemic threshold.

Metapopulation models provide the theoretical framework for describing disease spread between different populations connected by a network. In particular, these models are at the basis of most simulations of pandemic spread. They are usually studied at the mean-field level by neglecting fluctuations. Here we include fluctuations in the models by adopting fully stochastic descriptions of the corresponding processes. This level of description allows to address analytically, in the SIS and SIR cases, problems such as the existence and the calculation of an effective threshold for the spread of a disease at a global level. We show that the possibility of the spread at the global level is described in terms of (bond) percolation on the network. This mapping enables us to give an estimate (lower bound) for the pandemic threshold in the SIR case for all values of the model parameters and for all possible networks.

Tracking random walks.

In empirical studies, trajectories of animals or individuals are sampled in space and time. Yet, it is unclear how sampling procedures bias the recorded data. Here, we consider the important case of movements that consist of alternating rests and moves of random durations and study how the estimate of their statistical properties is affected by the way we measure them. We first discuss the ideal case of a constant sampling interval and short-tailed distributions of rest and move durations, and provide an exact analytical calculation of the fraction of correctly sampled trajectories. Further insights are obtained with simulations using more realistic long-tailed rest duration distributions showing that this fraction is dramatically reduced for real cases. We test our results for real human mobility with high-resolution GPS trajectories, where a constant sampling interval allows one to recover at best 18% of the movements, while over-evaluating the average trip length by a factor of 2. Using a sampling interval extracted from real communication data, we recover only 11% of the moves, a value that cannot be increased above 16% even with ideal algorithms. These figures call for a more cautious use of data in quantitative studies of individuals' movements.

Correction: Synaptic Metaplasticity Underlies Tetanic Potentiation in Lymnaea: A Novel Paradigm.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0078056.].

Synaptic metaplasticity underlies tetanic potentiation in Lymnaea: a novel paradigm.

We present a mathematical model that explains and interprets a novel form of short-term potentiation, which was found to be use-, but not time-dependent, in experiments done on Lymnaea neurons. The high degree of potentiation is explained using a model of synaptic metaplasticity, while the use-dependence (which is critically reliant on the presence of kinase in the experiment) is explained using a model of a stochastic and bistable biological switch.