Credibility of Chernobyl thyroid doses exceeding 10 Gy based on in-vivo measurements of 131I in Belarus.

Many estimates of individual thyroid doses to children and adults in Belarus have been based on the results of direct thyroid measurements made using survey meters soon after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Thyroid doses from internal exposure to 131I that are estimated using such measurements are usually considered to be better than estimates obtained by environmental transport modeling of concentrations expected in milk. Nonetheless, some of the estimated doses, primarily those to children, were high enough to raise questions about their credibility. Questions about high thyroid doses, taken here to be those exceeding 10 Gy, identified the need for further analysis, which is reported in this article. The overall conclusion is that the initial dose estimates exceeding 10 Gy based on direct thyroid measurements in Belarus are credible estimates and not mistakes. While the possibility of copying and data entry errors cannot be completely ruled out, the consistency of multiple measurements for many individuals supports the high dose estimates.

EPR TOOTH DOSIMETRY OF SNTS AREA INHABITANTS.

The determination of external dose to teeth of inhabitants of settlements near the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site (SNTS) was conducted using the EPR dosimetry technique to assess radiation doses associated with exposure to radioactive fallout from the test site. In this study, tooth doses have been reconstructed for 103 persons with all studied teeth having been formed before the first nuclear test in 1949. Doses above those received from natural background radiation, termed "accident doses", were found to lie in the range from zero to approximately 2 Gy, with one exception, a dose for one person from Semipalatinsk city was approximately 9 Gy. The variability of reconstructed doses within each of the settlements demonstrated heterogeneity of the deposited fallout as well as variations in lifestyle. The village mean external gamma doses for residents of nine[ settlements were in the range from a few tens of mGy to approximately 100 mGy.

External dose estimates for Dolon village: application of the U.S./Russian joint methodology.

Methods to estimate external dose from radioactive fallout from nuclear tests have for many years depended on two types of data: measurements of exposure rate in air and an empirically derived power function to describe the change in exposure rate with time, Over the last four years, a working group with American and Russian participation has developed a bi-national joint methodology that offers an improved capability for estimating external dose. In this method, external dose is estimated using exposure rate functions derived from data from American nuclear tests similar in construction to SNTS (Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site) devices. For example, in this paper, we derive doses for test #1 (August 29, 1949) at the SNTS using an exposure rate function for the U.S. TRINITY test. For the case of test #1, the average external dose for a person in Dolon is estimated to have been about 0.5 Gy compared to 1 to 2 Gy estimated in other work. This prediction agrees better with reported EPR measurements in teeth from village residents and with measurements of TL signals in bricks from Dolon buildings. This report presents the basic elements of the joint methodology model for estimation of external dose received from SNTS fallout.

Accounting for shared and unshared dosimetric uncertainties in the dose response for ultrasound-detected thyroid nodules after exposure to radioactive fallout.

Dosimetic uncertainties, particularly those that are shared among subgroups of a study population, can bias, distort or reduce the slope or significance of a dose response. Exposure estimates in studies of health risks from environmental radiation exposures are generally highly uncertain and thus, susceptible to these methodological limitations. An analysis was published in 2008 concerning radiation-related thyroid nodule prevalence in a study population of 2,994 villagers under the age of 21 years old between August 1949 and September 1962 and who lived downwind from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan. This dose-response analysis identified a statistically significant association between thyroid nodule prevalence and reconstructed doses of fallout-related internal and external radiation to the thyroid gland; however, the effects of dosimetric uncertainty were not evaluated since the doses were simple point "best estimates". In this work, we revised the 2008 study by a comprehensive treatment of dosimetric uncertainties. Our present analysis improves upon the previous study, specifically by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainties in dose estimation and risk analysis, and differs from the 2008 analysis in the following ways: 1. The study population size was reduced from 2,994 to 2,376 subjects, removing 618 persons with uncertain residence histories; 2. Simulation of multiple population dose sets (vectors) was performed using a two-dimensional Monte Carlo dose estimation method; and 3. A Bayesian model averaging approach was employed for evaluating the dose response, explicitly accounting for large and complex uncertainty in dose estimation. The results were compared against conventional regression techniques. The Bayesian approach utilizes 5,000 independent realizations of population dose vectors, each of which corresponds to a set of conditional individual median internal and external doses for the 2,376 subjects. These 5,000 population dose vectors reflect uncertainties in dosimetric parameters, partly shared and partly independent, among individual members of the study population. Risk estimates for thyroid nodules from internal irradiation were higher than those published in 2008, which results, to the best of our knowledge, from explicitly accounting for dose uncertainty. In contrast to earlier findings, the use of Bayesian methods led to the conclusion that the biological effectiveness for internal and external dose was similar. Estimates of excess relative risk per unit dose (ERR/Gy) for males (177 thyroid nodule cases) were almost 30 times those for females (571 cases) and were similar to those reported for thyroid cancers related to childhood exposures to external and internal sources in other studies. For confirmed cases of papillary thyroid cancers (3 in males, 18 in females), the ERR/Gy was also comparable to risk estimates from other studies, but not significantly different from zero. These findings represent the first reported dose response for a radiation epidemiologic study considering all known sources of shared and unshared errors in dose estimation and using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method for analysis of the dose response.

Transfer of 131I into human breast milk and transfer coefficients for radiological dose assessments.

Data on transfer of radioiodine into human milk are rare in the literature. Data from sixteen publications were reviewed and analyzed to estimate the transfer coefficient (f(hm)*, having units of d L(-1)). The data on the radioiodine concentration in breast milk were analyzed by two methods: direct numerical integration and integration of a fitted exponential model. In general, the integrated fitted functions were greater. The fitted functions likely better describe the transfer into milk since few data sets sampled mothers' milk near the time of maximum excretion. The derived transfer coefficient values seem to represent two populations. The first group was those individuals who had very low excretions, including those where thyroid and mammary uptake was impaired by the administration of stable iodine or iodinated compounds. The second group included those with much higher excretions. The second group, termed the "normal-excretion" group, had transfers of iodine to milk that were more than ten-fold higher than in the "low-excretion" group. The derived milk transfer coefficient data for the low- and normal-excretion groups fitted to lognormal distributions gave geometric means, (geometric standard deviations), of 0.043 d L(-1) (2.1, n = 14) and 0.37 d L(-1) (1.5, n = 12), respectively. Estimates of the effective half-time (time from maximum concentration to half the value) were determined for the low- and normal-excretion groups separately. There was evidence that the effective half-time was longer for the normal- than for the low-excretion group; the geometric mean (and geometric standard deviation) were 12 (1.7) and 8.5 (2.6) h, respectively, though the difference was not statistically significant. The geometric mean times to maximum milk concentration in the low- and normal-excretion groups were nearly identical, 9.4 (3.1) and 9.0 (1.6) h, respectively. The data show that administration of large doses of stable iodine (commonly used to block uptake of iodine into the thyroid) is also an effective means to block radioiodine transfer into milk. Thus, protecting the mother's thyroid also protects the nursing infant. Despite inadequacies of available data describing the transfer of radioiodine to human milk within a healthy population of women, the values of f(hm)* provided here are believed to be the best available for use in radiological assessments. These values are particularly applicable to lactating women having normal diets and availability to stable iodine, as in the United States.