Development of a multivariable model predicting mortality risk from comorbidities in an Italian cohort of 18,286 confirmed COVID-19 cases aged 40 years or older.

OBJECTIVES: to develop a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality from COVID­19 in an Italian cohort aged 40 years or older. DESIGN: a population-based retrospective cohort study on prospectively collected data was conducted. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the cohort included all swab positive cases aged 40 years older (No. 18,286) among residents in the territory of the Milan's Agency for Health Protection (ATS-MI) up to 27.04.2020. Data on comorbidities were obtained from the ATS administrative database of chronic conditions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: to predict 30-day mortality risk, a multivariable logistic regression model, including age, gender, and the selected conditions, was developed following the TRIPOD guidelines. Discrimination and calibration of the model were assessed. RESULTS: after age and gender, the most important predictors of 30-day mortality were diabetes, tumour in first-line treatment, chronic heart failure, and complicated diabetes. The bootstrap-validated c-index was 0.78, which suggests that this model is useful in predicting death after COVID-19 infection in swab positive cases. The model had good discrimination (Brier score 0.13) and was well calibrated (Index of prediction accuracy of 14.8%). CONCLUSIONS: a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality in a large COVID-19 cohort aged 40 years or older was developed. In a new epidemic wave, it would help to define groups at different risk and to identify high-risk subjects to target for specific prevention and therapeutic strategies.

The use of online pornography among minors: epidemiological analysis of the phenomenon.

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, the quick spread of Internet has brought many children and teenagers to be increasingly connected online without adult control. The use of Internet offers many opportunities, but at the same time it exposes young users to multiple risks. Among these, the consumption of sexually explicit internet material (SEIM) is one of the most relevant. The aim of the present study is to describe the epidemiology of this phenomenon regarding its prevalence and distribution among sexes and different age groups. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A literature search was performed on PubMed and ScienceDirect using the query "(pornography OR sexually explicit internet material) AND (adolescent OR child OR young)." Only papers published between 2013 and 2018 were included in the analysis. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: According to selected studies (N.=21), the prevalence of boys approaching SEIM ranges from 56% to 100%, whereas the percentage widely varies between 7.6% and 82% for girls. The first exposure to SEIM happens in a purely accidental way in over half of cases and at a mean age of 12 years for males and 14.5 years for females. The risk of exposure is doubled for smartphone and tablet owners. CONCLUSIONS: The spread of pornography and SEIM among minors seems to be epidemic and even pandemic. We need to consider its possible effects on the psychophysical welfare of the very young, influencing their growth and development. Therefore, the impact that pornography may have on the physical, psychological, and sexual health of younger people warrants further investigation.

Consumption of sexually explicit internet material and its effects on minors' health: latest evidence from the literature.

INTRODUCTION: Nowadays adolescents and children are more and more exposed to sexually explicit internet material (SEIM), but most parents and healthcare professionals neglect this issue. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of online pornography on minors' health with a specific focus on the effects produced on their behavioural, psychophysical and social development. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A literature search was performed on PubMed and ScienceDirect in March 2018 with the query "(pornography OR sexually explicit internet material) AND (adolescent OR child OR young) AND (impact OR behaviour OR health)." Results published between 2013 and 2018 were analysed and compared with previous evidence. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: According to selected studies (N.=19), an association between consumption of online pornography and several behavioral, psychophysical and social outcomes - earlier sexual debut, engaging with multiple and/or occasional partners, emulating risky sexual behaviors, assimilating distorted gender roles, dysfunctional body perception, aggressiveness, anxious or depressive symptoms, compulsive pornography use - is confirmed. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of online pornography on minors' health appears to be relevant. The issue can no longer be neglected and must be targeted by global and multidisciplinary interventions. Empowering parents, teachers and healthcare professionals by means of educational programs targeting this issue will allow them to assist minors in developing critical thinking skills about pornography, decreasing its use and obtaining an affective and sex education that is more suitable for their developmental needs.

Residential exposure to traffic-borne pollution as a risk factor for acute cardiocerebrovascular events: a population-based retrospective cohort study in a highly urbanized area.

BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to traffic-borne noise and air pollution has been variably associated with incidence of acute vascular events, namely acute myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke and haemorrhagic stroke. This study aims at exploring this association within a highly urbanized city. METHODS: This is a population-based retrospective dynamic cohort study including all residents aged ≥ 35 years in the municipality of Milan over the years 2011-18 (1 087 110 inhabitants). Residential exposure to road traffic noise (day-evening-night levels) and nitrogen dioxide was estimated using a noise predictive model and a land use regression model, respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to assess the incidence of acute vascular events and specific outcomes in single-exposure and two-exposure models including adjustment for sociodemographic confounders, fine particulate matter and surrounding greenness. RESULTS: A total of 27 282 subjects (2.5%) had an acute vascular event. Models using nitrogen dioxide produced inconsistent results. The strongest effect was observed for noise, with an optimal cut-off for dichotomization set at 70 dBA (hazard ratio 1.025, 95% confidence interval 1.000-1.050). This association was observed specifically for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke. When stratifying by age group and sex, a remarkable effect was found for haemorrhagic stroke in men aged <60 years (hazard ratio 1.439, 95% confidence interval 1.156-1.792). CONCLUSIONS: Living by roads with a day-evening-night noise level above 70 dBA exerts a small but tangible independent effect on the risks of both ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke. It is urgent to propose mitigation measures against pollution and noise originating from vehicular traffic in order to reduce their impact, especially in the population younger than 60 years.

Correction: Long-term follow-up of low-risk branchduct IPMNs of the pancreas: is main pancreatic duct dilatation the most worrisome feature?

In the HTML version of this paper Pietro Magnoni was incorrectly tagged as the corresponding author. The corresponding author should have been Maria Chiara Petrone. This has now been corrected in the HTML version of the paper.

Long-term follow-up of low-risk branch-duct IPMNs of the pancreas: is main pancreatic duct dilatation the most worrisome feature?

OBJECTIVES: The management of branch-duct IPMN remains controversial due to the relatively low rate of malignant degeneration and the uncertain predictive role of high-risk stigmata (HRS) and worrisome features (WFs) identified by the 2012 International Consensus Guidelines. Our aim was to evaluate the evolution of originally low-risk (Fukuoka-negative) BD-IPMNs during a long follow-up period in order to determine whether the appearance of any clinical or morphological variables may be independently associated with the development of malignancy over time. METHODS: A prospectively collected database of all patients with BD-IPMN referring to our Institute between 2002 and 2016 was retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analysis of association between changes during follow-up, including appearance of HRS/WFs, and development of malignancy (high-grade dysplasia/invasive carcinoma) was performed. RESULTS: A total of 167 patients were selected for analysis, and seven developed malignant disease (4.2%). During a median follow-up time of 55 months, HRS appeared in only three cases but predicted malignancy with 100% specificity. Worrisome features, on the other hand, appeared in 44 patients (26.3%). Appearance of mural nodules and MPD dilatation >5 mm showed a significant association with malignancy in multivariate analysis (p = 0.004 and p = 0.001, respectively). MPD dilatation in particular proved to be the strongest independent risk factor for development of malignancy (OR = 24.5). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of pancreatic malignancy in this population is low but definite. The presence of major WFs, and especially MPD dilatation, should prompt a tighter follow-up with EUS and a valid cytological analysis whenever feasible.