Association between delays to patient admission from the emergency department and all-cause 30-day mortality.

BACKGROUND: Delays to timely admission from emergency departments (EDs) are known to harm patients. OBJECTIVE: To assess and quantify the increased risk of death resulting from delays to inpatient admission from EDs, using Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics data in England. METHODS: A cross-sectional, retrospective observational study was carried out of patients admitted from every type 1 (major) ED in England between April 2016 and March 2018. The primary outcome was death from all causes within 30 days of admission. Observed mortality was compared with expected mortality, as calculated using a logistic regression model to adjust for sex, age, deprivation, comorbidities, hour of day, month, previous ED attendances/emergency admissions and crowding in the department at the time of the attendance. RESULTS: Between April 2016 and March 2018, 26 738 514 people attended an ED, with 7 472 480 patients admitted relating to 5 249 891 individual patients, who constituted the study's dataset. A total of 433 962 deaths occurred within 30 days. The overall crude 30-day mortality rate was 8.71% (95% CI 8.69% to 8.74%). A statistically significant linear increase in mortality was found from 5 hours after time of arrival at the ED up to 12 hours (when accurate data collection ceased) (p<0.001). The greatest change in the 30-day standardised mortality ratio was an 8% increase, occurring in the patient cohort that waited in the ED for more than 6 to 8 hours from the time of arrival. CONCLUSIONS: Delays to hospital inpatient admission for patients in excess of 5 hours from time of arrival at the ED are associated with an increase in all-cause 30-day mortality. Between 5 and 12 hours, delays cause a predictable dose-response effect. For every 82 admitted patients whose time to inpatient bed transfer is delayed beyond 6 to 8 hours from time of arrival at the ED, there is one extra death.

Emergency medicine response to the COVID-19 pandemic in England: a phenomenological study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has stretched EDs globally, with many regions in England challenged by the number of COVID-19 presentations. In order to rapidly share learning to inform future practice, we undertook a thematic review of ED operational experience within England during the pandemic thus far. METHODS: A rapid phenomenological approach using semistructured telephone interviews with ED clinical leads from across England was undertaken between 16 and 22 April 2020. Participants were recruited through purposeful sampling with sample size determined by data saturation. Departments from a wide range of geographic distribution and COVID-19 experience were included. Themes were identified and included if they met one of three criteria: demonstrating a consistency of experience between EDs, demonstrating a conflict of approach between emergency departments or encapsulating a unique solution to a common barrier. RESULTS: Seven clinical leads from type 1 EDs were interviewed. Thematic redundancy was achieved by the sixth interview, and one further interview was performed to confirm. Themes emerged in five categories: departmental reconfiguration, clinical pathways, governance and communication, workforce and personal protective equipment. CONCLUSION: This paper summarises learning and innovation from a cross-section of EDs during the first UK wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Common themes centred around the importance of flexibility when reacting to an ever-changing clinical challenge, clear leadership and robust methods of communication. Additionally, experience in managing winter pressures helped inform operational decisions, and ED staff demonstrated incredible resilience in demanding working conditions. Subsequent surges of COVID-19 infections may occur within a more challenging context with no guarantee that there will be an associated reduction in A&E attendance or cessation of elective activity. Future operational planning must therefore take this into consideration.

Postural modification to the standard Valsalva manoeuvre for emergency treatment of supraventricular tachycardias (REVERT): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The Valsalva manoeuvre is an internationally recommended treatment for supraventricular tachycardia, but cardioversion is rare in practice (5-20%), necessitating the use of other treatments including adenosine, which patients often find unpleasant. We assessed whether a postural modification to the Valsalva manoeuvre could improve its effectiveness. METHODS: We did a randomised controlled, parallel-group trial at emergency departments in England. We randomly allocated adults presenting with supraventricular tachycardia (excluding atrial fibrillation and flutter) in a 1:1 ratio to undergo a modified Valsalva manoeuvre (done semi-recumbent with supine repositioning and passive leg raise immediately after the Valsalva strain), or a standard semi-recumbent Valsalva manoeuvre. A 40 mm Hg pressure, 15 s standardised strain was used in both groups. Randomisation, stratified by centre, was done centrally and independently, with allocation with serially numbered, opaque, sealed, tamper-evident envelopes. Patients and treating clinicians were not masked to allocation. The primary outcome was return to sinus rhythm at 1 min after intervention, determined by the treating clinician and electrocardiogram and confirmed by an investigator masked to treatment allocation. This study is registered with Current Controlled Trials (ISRCTN67937027). FINDINGS: We enrolled 433 participants between Jan 11, 2013, and Dec 29, 2014. Excluding second attendance by five participants, 214 participants in each group were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. 37 (17%) of 214 participants assigned to standard Valsalva manoeuvre achieved sinus rhythm compared with 93 (43%) of 214 in the modified Valsalva manoeuvre group (adjusted odds ratio 3·7 (95% CI 2·3-5·8; p<0·0001). We recorded no serious adverse events. INTERPRETATION: In patients with supraventricular tachycardia, a modified Valsalva manoeuvre with leg elevation and supine positioning at the end of the strain should be considered as a routine first treatment, and can be taught to patients. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

Forecasting the Requirement for Nonelective Hospital Beds in the National Health Service of the United Kingdom: Model Development Study.

BACKGROUND: Over the last decade, increasing numbers of emergency department attendances and an even greater increase in emergency admissions have placed severe strain on the bed capacity of the National Health Service (NHS) of the United Kingdom. The result has been overcrowded emergency departments with patients experiencing long wait times for admission to an appropriate hospital bed. Nevertheless, scheduling issues can still result in significant underutilization of bed capacity. Bed occupancy rates may not correlate well with bed availability. More accurate and reliable long-term prediction of bed requirements will help anticipate the future needs of a hospital's catchment population, thus resulting in greater efficiencies and better patient care. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate widely used automated time-series forecasting techniques to predict short-term daily nonelective bed occupancy at all trusts in the NHS. These techniques were used to develop a simple yet accurate national health system-level forecasting framework that can be utilized at a low cost and by health care administrators who do not have statistical modeling expertise. METHODS: Bed occupancy models that accounted for patterns in occupancy were created for each trust in the NHS. Daily nonelective midnight trust occupancy data from April 2011 to March 2017 for 121 NHS trusts were utilized to generate these models. Forecasts were generated using the three most widely used automated forecasting techniques: exponential smoothing; Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average; and Trigonometric, Box-Cox transform, autoregressive moving average errors, and Trend and Seasonal components. The NHS Modernisation Agency's recommended forecasting method prior to 2020 was also replicated. RESULTS: The accuracy of the models varied on the basis of the season during which occupancy was forecasted. For the summer season, percent root-mean-square error values for each model remained relatively stable across the 6 forecasted weeks. However, only the trend and seasonal components model (median error=2.45% for 6 weeks) outperformed the NHS Modernisation Agency's recommended method (median error=2.63% for 6 weeks). In contrast, during the winter season, the percent root-mean-square error values increased as we forecasted further into the future. Exponential smoothing generated the most accurate forecasts (median error=4.91% over 4 weeks), but all models outperformed the NHS Modernisation Agency's recommended method prior to 2020 (median error=8.5% over 4 weeks). CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to create automated models, similar to those recently published by the NHS, which can be used at a hospital level for a large national health care system to predict nonelective bed admissions and thus schedule elective procedures.

Emergency medicine in Zanzibar: the effect of system changes in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Mnazi Mmoja Hospital is a tertiary hospital in Zanzibar serving a population of 1.2 million. The emergency department was overcrowded and understaffed and the hospital management initiated a quality improvement project. The aim of this article is to describe the approach, methods and main results of this quality improvement process. METHODS: The Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) method was used in a five-circle process. In addition, a consensus-based approach was performed to identify areas of improvement. RESULTS: Over a period of 6 months, regular staff meetings were implemented, a registration system was developed and implemented, the numbers of patients with simple problems were reduced, a simple triage tool was developed and implemented and an emergency room was established. CONCLUSIONS: Change and improvement in health care are achievable despite limited financial resources if a comprehensive, robust and simple system is used. Involvement of all stakeholders from the start, identification and use of change agents, regular feedback and a focus on human resources rather than equipment have been key factors for the success of this project.

Better data, better planning: the College of Emergency Medicine sentinel sites project.

This article describes the College of Emergency Medicine's initial attempt to gather high quality data from its own 'sentinel sites' rather than relying on more comprehensive national data of dubious quality. Such information is essential to inform and guide the planning of urgent and emergency care services in the future.

Tariffs in emergency care.

The crisis in emergency medicine in the UK was no surprise to staff in the specialty, but was not expected by the Department of Health. This article explains how chronic, systematic under-resourcing of emergency care has caused emergency departments to decompensate, and discusses actions that are necessary to prevent recurrence.

Randomised Evaluation of modified Valsalva Effectiveness in Re-entrant Tachycardias (REVERT) study.

INTRODUCTION: The Valsalva manoeuvre (VM) is a recommended first-line physical treatment for patients with re-entrant supraventricular tachycardia (SVT), but is often ineffective in standard practice. A failed VM is typically followed by treatment with intravenous adenosine, which patients often find unpleasant. VM effectiveness might be improved by a modification to posture which exaggerates the manoeuvre's vagal response and reduces the need for further emergency treatment. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a multicentre randomised controlled clinical trial in 10 UK emergency departments (EDs). It compares a standard VM with a modified VM incorporating leg elevation and a supine posture after a standardised strain in stable adult patients presenting to the ED with SVT. The primary outcome measure is return to sinus rhythm on a 12-lead ECG. Secondary outcome measures include the need for treatment with adenosine or other antiarrhythmic treatments and the time patients spend in the ED. We plan to recruit approximately 372 patients, with 80% power to demonstrate an absolute improvement in cardioversion rate of 12%. An improvement of this magnitude through the use of a modified VM would be of significant benefit to patients and healthcare providers, and justify a change to standard practice. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the South West-Exeter Research Ethics Committee (REC reference 12/SW/0281). The trial will be published in an international peer reviewed journal. Study findings will be sent to the European and International resuscitation councils to inform future revisions of arrhythmia management guidelines. RESULTS: The trial will also be disseminated at international conferences and to patients through the Arrhythmia Alliance, a patient support charity. REGISTRATION: The study is registered with Current Controlled Trials (ISRCTN67937027) and has been adopted by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network.