Preference, perceived change, and professed relationship among ecosystem services in the Himalayas.

The demand side of ecosystem service (ES), especially preference and perception of supply and interactions among ES, is an important yet underexplored research area for landscape planning and management in human-dominated landscapes. Taking a case of multifunctional landscape in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, we carried out a social survey of ES, focusing on preference, perceived change, and observed relationship among six major ES from the local people's perspective. Using a semi-structured questionnaire, data collection was done from 300 households from 10 categories of human settlements, based on watershed and land cover types. Garrett mean score (GMS), ordinal logistic regression estimates, and Chi-square test were performed for quantitative data, while an inductive approach was adopted for qualitative data analysis. The results show that at the landscape level, local people preferred water yield (GMS = 70) and crop production (GMS = 66) as the most preferred ES, whereas habitat quality (GMS = 37) and carbon sequestration (GMS = 35) were among the least preferred ES. More than 70% of the respondents believed that the supply of crop production has decreased over the last two decades; however, the supply of other provisioning and non-provisioning ES has increased as observed by majority of the respondents. Among the 15 pairs of ES, local people believe that co-occurrence of ES is possible. Majority of the respondents said that there exist synergistic relationship among 13 pairs of ES, except crop production which is negatively related with timber production and carbon sequestration. Among the identified trade-offs in ES, majority of local people believed that direct trade-offs (i.e., linear inverse relationship) is dominant as observed in 8 pairs of ES, followed by concave and convex trade-offs. Based on our analysis, we argue that the preference and perceived change of ES is more dependent on spatial heterogeneity of communities (i.e., watershed type, municipal category, and land cover type of residence) than socio-economic determinants. Further, we have discussed and suggested few policy and management measures including place-based spatial assessment of the social demand and preference, embracing agroforestry practices in ecosystem management programs, mainstreaming non-local ES in local decision making by incentives, and optimizing the supply of desired ES though integrated biophysical and socio-economic assessment of the landscape.

Community evaluation of forest and REDD+ governance quality in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has over 100 million Ha of forest and has significant potential to benefit from these forests, including through REDD+ if they are managed effectively. Effective governance of forest landscapes is essential for environmental management and equitable harnessing of ecosystem service benefits for communities. Poor governance, political instability, and capacity limitations in the DRC are widely highlighted. However, there have been few, if any, attempts to evaluate forest governance in the DRC, especially at the community level. This paper reports a community-level evaluation of forest governance in the DRC, using a survey method. The results suggest that REDD+ projects have the ability to improve forest governance as perceived by the community. The research shows that building the right capacity, consulting and accessing the needs of the community and building long-term projects and partnerships a key success factors. These findings and the novel approach to supporting communities to evaluate their governance are applicable to similar community-level forest governance contexts.

Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on financial returns of smallholder coffee plantations in Lao PDR.

Laos is among the top twenty coffee producing country in the world-producing about 39,000 tonnes per year-and most of its production is currently exported to over 26 countries, contributing about 1.1% of the total export value or US$64.3 million in 2019 to Laos' national economy. COVID-19 restrictions on trade and movement of people have largely impacted on coffee markets and production. As a strategic crop in Laos, it is supported by a range of policies and programs to generate greater benefits to both independent smallholder farmers and those involved in cooperatives, including support for agroforestry production models involving coffee and tree crops. However, studies of the profitability of different coffee agroforestry models are limited. This study compares financial returns from four most popular coffee agroforestry models in two coffee production provinces of Laos, before and during COVID-19 pandemic. The data were gathered from 20 farmers, five coffee traders and an integrated coffee processing company. These data were then triangulated with, and supplemented by, interviews with coffee exporters (n = 3) and key informants (n = 4). Financial indicators suggest that all four agroforestry models were profitable before COVID, but profits for cooperative growers were higher than for smallholders due to higher crop productivity and lower costs. Despite higher prices due to COVID restrictions, other factors reduced profitability of all four models and one smallholder model became unprofitable. The reasons for such differences and related policy implications are discussed.

How will hydro-energy generation of the Nepalese Himalaya vary in the future? A climate change perspective.

Despite being one of the proven clean-energy technologies, hydroelectricity is losing attention in global research. Hydroelectricity is extremely important for countries possessing the required water resources, already heavily reliant on it and those lacking the financial capacity to invest in other expensive energy technologies. This study assessed the possible impact of climate change (CC) on hydro-energy generation in the Nepalese Himalaya (possessing eight peaks out of 14 over 8000 m) with a tremendous hydropower potential (∼50,000 MW). A planned 1200 MW storage type Budhigandaki Hydroelectricity Project is taken as a case. We estimated the energy generation for the baseline as well as 10 CC scenarios considering RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 at monthly, seasonal, and annual temporal scales for the mid-century. Results show that energy generation is highly dependent on the reservoir operating rule. The average annual energy generation is expected to vary within -5 to +12% of the base case in the mid-century, with significant variations across the months. We also infer that designing hydro-projects based on ensembled climate values could lead to a "rosy" but less probable and risky picture of energy generation in the future. Therefore, assessment of a wide spectrum of plausible CC scenarios are recommended. Storage type projects with provision of flexible operating rules considering finer temporal resolution and allocation to competing users (in case of multipurpose projects) supported by appropriate policies are desirable for climate resiliency. Complementing the existing energy generation mix with other technologies in areas where hydroelectricity is expected to undergo adverse impacts of CC is warranted for attaining future energy security and environmental safeguarding. Possibility of additional energy due to CC is a strong motivation for this region to focus on hydroelectricity development in the future.

Impact of COVID-19 in the forestry sector: A case of lowland region of Nepal.

All walks of life have been affected by COVID-19 but smallholders from developing countries have been impacted more than others as they are heavily reliant on forest and agriculture for their livelihoods and have limited capacity to deal with COVID-19. Scholars are heavily engaged in assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on health and wellbeing, gender, food production and supply, stock market and the overall economy but not on the forestry sector. Using questionnaire surveys and key informant interviews-informed by grey literature and published articles- representing Division Forest Offices, Provincial Forest Directorates, and the Ministry of Forests and Environment in Nepal, this study assessed the impact of COVID-19 on the forestry sector of Nepal. Our analysis suggests that: (1) nature-based tourism is more severely affected than other sectors; (2) private, religious and leasehold forests faced minimal impacts of COVID-19 than that of community and government-managed forests; (3) wild boar (Sus scrofa), different species of deer, and birds have been more impacted than other wild animals; (4) the price of the timber has increased significantly whereas the price of non-timber forests products (NTFPs) has decreased; and (5) illegal logging and poaching have increased but the incidence of forest encroachment has been reduced. Our study further reveals that agroforestry practices in home gardens, borrowing money from neighbors/banks/landlords and liquidating livestock remained key alternatives for smallholders during COVID-19. Many studies reported that reverse migration could create chaos in Nepal, but our study suggests that it may enhance rural innovation and productivity, as returnees may use their acquired knowledge and skills to develop new opportunities. As COVID-19 has created a war-like situation worldwide, Nepal should come up with a forward-looking fiscal response with alternative income generation packages to local living to counter the impacts of COVID-19 on the forestry sector. One of the options could be implementing similar programs to that of India's US$ 800 Compensatory Afforestation Program and Pakistan's 10 Billion Tree Tsunami Program, which will create a win-win situation, i.e., generate employment for reverse migrants and promotes forest restoration.

Implementation effect of municipal solid waste mandatory sorting policy in Shanghai.

In Shanghai, the biggest metropolis in China, the source classification of domestic waste began in the 1990s but achieved little success over the past thirty years. Surprisingly, the compulsory classification provision of Shanghai residents' domestic waste since 2019 has been successful. In this work, the overall status, and challenges of municipal solid waste (MSW) management in Shanghai under compulsory waste sorting rules are investigated. We tracked the classification efficiency of municipal solid waste, physicochemical characteristics of separated waste, and the carbon emissions arising from waste disposal system. It was found that almost 83.62 % of household food waste has been effectively separated with high purity of 99.50 %, while the lower heating value (LHV) of residual waste was increased by 96.4 % compared to previous years. With effective waste classification, the net carbon emission of separated processing was reduced to 0.11 ton CE/ton waste. However, this system generated some negative outcomes as well such as the lower recovery value of metal in bottom ash and the higher chloride content in fly ash. Moreover, we have documented and discussed several challenges of sustainable waste management system in Shanghai in the text. In order to overcome those challenges, we recommend to: (i) establish a finer source separation and recycling system; (ii) develop highly-efficient resource recovery technologies of byproducts from waste disposal system; and (iii) propose optimization adjustment strategy for overcapacity in incineration facilities.

A critical assessment of provincial-level variation in agricultural GHG emissions in China.

China is a world leader on agriculture production; with only 8% of global cropland it feeds 20% of the world's population. However, the increasing production capacity comes with the cost of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As a populous country with the highest GHG emissions in the world, determining how to achieve the dual goals of mitigating climate change and ensuring food security is of great significance for the agricultural sector. This requires assessing the spatial variation in agricultural greenhouse gases (GHGs) and their drivers. In this study, we conduct a spatial assessment of agricultural GHGs at the provincial level in China for the years 1997-2017, and then explore the effects of related factors on GHG emissions using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results suggest the following. 1) There have always been significant interprovincial variations, whether in the total amount, structure, intensity, or per capita level of agricultural GHG emissions. 2) The directions of the effects of selected factors on GHG intensity fall broadly into three categories: negative effects (urbanization, intensity of agricultural practices, and agricultural structure), positive effects (agricultural investment and cropland endowments), and mixed effects, with factors leading to reductions in some provinces and increases in others (economic level, frequency and intensity of disasters, and the level of mechanization). 3) The magnitude of the effects varies by factor and also by province. The results suggest synergetic province- or state-specific reduction policies in agricultural GHG for China, as well as for other developing and emerging economies.

COVID-19 lockdown and the forestry sector: Insight from Gandaki province of Nepal.

Almost all countries have imposed large-scale mobility restrictions (or lockdown) to stop the spreading of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The mobility restriction has disrupted all types of business; causing a devastating impact on countries' economies; and pushing millions of people into extreme poverty. Scientists have been assessing the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on various fronts but there is limited scholarship in the forestry sector. We navigated the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on the forestry sector by taking Gandaki Province (21,974 km2) of Nepal as a case. Employing semi-structured interviews (n = 62) with all ten stakeholder groups, literature review and media analysis, our study revealed that the COVID-19 lockdown suspended all types of forestry and ecotourism businesses; obstructed research and monitoring activities; halted capacity development and extension services; impacted forest development work; and increased incidences of illegal logging and poaching and trafficking of wildlife. Because of the complete shutdown of businesses, the forestry sector of Gandaki province lost 9.6 million USD and 3.2 million man-days of employment during the lockdown period. The economic cost of the lockdown was 1.73 million USD for NTFPs traders, 1.26 million USD for ecotourism entrepreneurs, 0.55 million USD for the community forest user groups and 0.24 million USD for the smallholder or private forest owner. We suggested four post-COVID recovery pathways, including sustainable forest management, nature-based tourism, improvement of forest products value chain and community-based natural resource management to bounce back from the loss. As the current pandemic is most likely to derail the Sustainable Development Pathways of several countries, including Nepal and necessitates the need for an immediate response, the finding and recommendation of our study may inform decision-makers to reimage post-pandemic recovery and leverage sustainable development.

Response and resilience of Asian agrifood systems to COVID-19: An assessment across twenty-five countries and four regional farming and food systems.

Context: The COVID-19 pandemic has been affecting health and economies across the world, although the nature of direct and indirect effects on Asian agrifood systems and food security has not yet been well understood. Objectives: This paper assesses the initial responses of major farming and food systems to COVID-19 in 25 Asian countries, and considers the implications for resilience, food and nutrition security and recovery policies by the governments. Methods: A conceptual systems model was specified including key pathways linking the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 to the resilience and performance of the four principal Asian farming and food systems, viz, lowland rice based; irrigated wheat based; hill mixed; and dryland mixed systems. Based on this framework, a systematic survey of 2504 key informants (4% policy makers, 6% researchers or University staff, 6% extension workers, 65% farmers, and 19% others) in 20 Asian countries was conducted and the results assessed and analysed. Results and conclusion: The principal Asian farming and food systems were moderately resilient to COVID-19, reinforced by government policies in many countries that prioritized food availability and affordability. Rural livelihoods and food security were affected primarily because of disruptions to local labour markets (especially for off-farm work), farm produce markets (notably for perishable foods) and input supply chains (i.e., seeds and fertilisers). The overall effects on system performance were most severe in the irrigated wheat based system and least severe in the hill mixed system, associated in the latter case with greater resilience and diversification and less dependence on external inputs and long market chains. Farming and food systems' resilience and sustainability are critical considerations for recovery policies and programmes, especially in relation to economic performance that initially recovered more slowly than productivity, natural resources status and social capital. Overall, the resilience of Asian farming and food systems was strong because of inherent systems characteristics reinforced by public policies that prioritized staple food production and distribution as well as complementary welfare programmes. With the substantial risks to plant- and animal-sourced food supplies from future zoonoses and the institutional vulnerabilities revealed by COVID-19, efforts to improve resilience should be central to recovery programmes. Significance: This study was the first Asia-wide systems assessment of the effects of COVID-19 on agriculture and food systems, differentiating the effects of the pandemic across the four principal regional farming and food systems in the region.

Resident risk attitude analysis in the decision-making management of waste incineration construction.

Environmental pollutants generated by waste incineration plants, such as heavy metals and dioxin, make surrounding residents very sensitive to the construction of such facilities. This sensitivity and anxiety of residents may induce group events, which further leads to the emergence of social risks. Based on risk perception theory, a total of 320 questionnaires was designed and handed out to residents neighboring to Jiangqiao Waste Incineration Plant in Shanghai, China to detect the factors affecting risk attitude toward such plants. Using ordered logit model, it is found that there are four decisive factors including impact on health, information cognitive, objective characteristics, and the attitude of the neighbors. These factors have different influence on resident risk attitudes, in which the attitude of the neighbors is of most significance, followed by the economic-geography characteristics of residents, the information cognitive has minimal impact.

Mapping national REDD+ initiatives in the Asia-Pacific region.

Countries in the Asia-Pacific region are pioneers in the implementation of climate change mitigation initiatives. They have implemented readiness activities to fulfil the requirements for results-based payments from the forestry sector (termed REDD+). Using content analysis, a questionnaire, and a series of workshops with key stakeholders, we mapped the REDD + readiness of 11 Asia-Pacific countries with respect to UNFCCC's resolutions on REDD+. Their status was mapped against the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which constitutes the five design elements of the Warsaw REDD + Framework and the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) requirements. While the overall achievements vary across the studied countries, our results demonstrate that Vietnam, Nepal, and Indonesia are in an advanced stage of REDD + readiness. A significant number of conditional NDCs and timely and adequate technical and financial support are imperative for the studied countries to achieve a high level of readiness. However, lack of trust and coordination among the state and non-state actors, limited national participation of Civil Society Organizations and Indigenous Peoples in REDD + related committees, and conflicts among regulatory frameworks related to forestry and other land uses remain common challenges for these countries. These challenges risk disrupting the essence of REDD + as a multi-level, multi-stage and multi-stakeholder governance system. Stakeholders in these countries are optimistic about a better performance of REDD + regarding emission reduction, enhanced livelihoods, improved forest governance and improvement in biodiversity. However, any optimism is challenged by stakeholder's own suspicion of the effectiveness of REDD + projects to achieve permanency and control leakage/displacement. Building political will and the development of context-specific benefit-sharing plans and their effective implementation could be important keys to maintaining optimism of stakeholders about REDD + initiatives.

Why is the Private Forest Program Stunted in Nepal?

Private forest (PF) program has the potential to be one of the most efficient forest management programs in Nepal but it has not gained the momentum compared to the other forest management regimes. Considering this, this paper aims to portray policy provisions, existing institutional arrangements as well as landholder experiences and perceptions over the existing mechanisms of PF registration, management, and forest product harvesting. Using the Sudoorpashchim province of Nepal as a case study, we conducted policy and literature reviews, key informant interviews, household surveys, and field observations. We found only 300 PFs registered in the Sudoorpashchim province, with lowland districts having the highest proportion (87%). Institutional arrangements and procedures for timber harvesting and selling were found to be lengthy and complex, with this being a major issue for PF owners with small forest areas. Government initiatives are inadequate to facilitate PF development due to poor implementation of policy provisions, as well as the lack of appropriate incentives and program packages. Despite a very small government investment in PF development, we found the return from PFs in terms of timber supply to be substantially higher than other forest management regimes. Among others, PF owners perceive the cumbersome regulatory procedures and lack of technical support to be the most pertinent factors responsible for the limited growth of PFs. Based on our results, we have discussed and recommended a number of policy and institutional measures to mainstream PF development programs, in order to support economic prosperity of the nation.

Key steps in environmental impact assessment: a comparative study of China, Queensland State of Australia and Nepal.

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) has evolved as an environmental management and sustainability tool. Despite common principles shared by EIA globally, there are considerable variations in EIA processes across countries. In this paper, we reviewed and compared EIA processes of China, Queensland State of Australia and Nepal considering five key steps (selection of consultants, report preparation, public participation, report review and approval, and monitoring and evaluations) of EIA. Our review indicated that the EIA is well recognised in legal instruments in all state and countries under consideration and there are both similarities and differences in key steps of EIA. Monitoring of EIA recommendations and the integration of feedbacks from the past and current practices are important in improving EIA processes. This study also found that there are elements for possible improvement in existing EIA processes by each state and country introducing the best practices from others' EIA system. Some of the practices that Nepal can follow from the EIA processes of Queensland and China are licensing and accreditation of individuals and firms to conduct EIA, establishment of separate monitoring unit within regulating department, development of clear guidelines for approvals and monitoring, and the use of independent third-party auditing in EIA monitoring. The findings of this paper are useful in revising and improving EIA policies, practices and processes in the selected state, countries and elsewhere.

Improved prediction of farm nitrous oxide emission through an understanding of the interaction among climate extremes, soil nitrogen dynamics and irrigation water.

Reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture soils is crucial, as it accounts for 5.6-6.8% of global anthropogenic emissions. This study aims to understand the interaction among climate, soil nitrogen (N) and applied N on N2O emissions from the irrigated cotton farming system and its implications on farm economics. We conducted simulations for 116 years (1900-2015) and assessed the effect of different N-fertiliser application rates, initial soil nitrate (NO3) N levels and rainfall conditions on N2O emissions, N2O emission factors (EFs) and financial returns (with and without N2O costs). Results showed the following. 1) The proportional impact of higher N fertiliser rates on soil N2O emissions was greater when initial soil N level was lower (5 mg NO3 kg-1) than higher (35 mg NO3 kg-1). However, the volume of impact was greater under higher initial soil N levels. 2) The relationship between N fertiliser rates and the EFs (range 0.03-7.2%) was not linear but bell-shaped. 3) Fertiliser N requirements increased with rainfall and decreased with initial soil N. Accordingly, the cotton returns for the driest rainfall condition (<10th percentile) were maximum at 300, 250 and 150 kg N ha-1 for initial soil N of 5, 20 and 35 mg NO3 kg-1. For the wettest rainfall condition (>90th percentile), these rates were 50 kg ha-1 higher across the initial soil N conditions. Any additional application of N-fertiliser above these rates was counterproductive. 4) Inclusion of N2O cost into farm economics reduced the annual returns by up to $39 ha-1, but the optimal fertiliser application rates remain the same. 5) Optimising N fertiliser rates to soil N and rainfall conditions increased the annual returns by up to $303 ha-1, with a further increase of $15 ha-1 from fertiliser use efficiency when the Australian Government incentives under the $2.55 billion dollar Emission Reduction Fund program was considered. These findings suggest that N-fertiliser application rates and N2O emission mitigation strategies need further refinements specific to prevailing soil and climate variabilities.

The interplay between the entrepreneurial leadership identity, entrepreneurial leadership competency and venture growth intentions of women in rural Australia.

Cultivating business growth intentions in rural, regional, and remote women entrepreneurs is crucial, considering the unique challenges they face in rural areas. The growth intentions of rural, regional, and remote women entrepreneurs remain understudied. This study pioneers research on the interplay between entrepreneurial leadership competency, identity, and growth intentions of rural, regional, and remote Australian women. We surveyed rural, regional, and remote women entrepreneurs in Queensland, Australia, using structural equation modeling for analysis. Results revealed a positive relationship between entrepreneurial leader identity, business growth intentions, and entrepreneurial leadership competency. Moreover, entrepreneurial leadership competency positively correlated with growth intentions. The study indicated that entrepreneurial leadership competency partially mediates the link between identity and growth intentions. This research addresses a theoretical gap by introducing a new model showcasing the relationships between entrepreneurial leadership identity, entrepreneurial leadership competency, and venture growth intentions. From a practical standpoint, our findings strengthen the business case for improving tailor-made rural, regional, and remote entrepreneurial development programs.

Unravelling the impact of climate change on honey bees: An ensemble modelling approach to predict shifts in habitat suitability in Queensland, Australia.

Honey bees play a vital role in providing essential ecosystem services and contributing to global agriculture. However, the potential effect of climate change on honey bee distribution is still not well understood. This study aims to identify the most influential bioclimatic and environmental variables, assess their impact on honey bee distribution, and predict future distribution. An ensemble modelling approach using the biomod2 package in R was employed to develop three models: a climate-only model, an environment-only model, and a combined climate and environment model. By utilising bioclimatic data (radiation of the wettest and driest quarters and temperature seasonality) from 1990 to 2009, combined with observed honey bee presence and pseudo absence data, this model predicted suitable locations for honey bee apiaries for two future time spans: 2020-2039 and 2060-2079. The climate-only model exhibited a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.85, underscoring the pivotal role of radiation and temperature seasonality in shaping honey bee distribution. The environment-only model, incorporating proximity to floral resources, foliage projective cover, and elevation, demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a TSS of 0.88, emphasising the significance of environmental variables in determining habitat suitability for honey bees. The combined model had a higher TSS of 0.96, indicating that the combination of climate and environmental variables enhances the model's performance. By the 2020-2039 period, approximately 88% of highly suitable habitats for honey bees are projected to transition from their current state to become moderate (14.84%) to marginally suitable (13.46%) areas. Predictions for the 2060-2079 period reveal a concerning trend: 100% of highly suitable land transitions into moderately (0.54%), marginally (17.56%), or not suitable areas (81.9%) for honey bees. These results emphasise the critical need for targeted conservation efforts and the implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding honey bees and the vital apiary industry.

Unlocking the tapestry of conservation: Navigating ecological resettlement policies in Nepal.

Conservation initiatives involve a complex interplay of various ecological, socio-political, and economic factors. Ecological resettlement (ER), implemented within the context of nature conservation policies, stands as one of the most contested issues worldwide. This study aims to navigate the domain of ER policy in conservation through discursive institutionalism and a policy arrangement approach. Focusing on Nepal's conservation policy pathways over the last seven decades, we critically analyze policy ideas and narratives, trends, patterns of policy development, institutional arrangements, driving factors, and responses to contemporary ER policies. Methods involved a systematic literature review (n = 271), a comprehensive review of policy documents and project reports (n > 150), and expert interviews (n = 20). Over the past 50 years, >7600 households in Nepal have been displaced in the name of ER and are still persisting despite the rhetoric of participatory conservation. With changes in political regimes, conservation policy has shifted from a hunting-focused approach to landscape-level and transboundary conservation. Initially influenced by internal factors such as economic and political governance, conservation policies were later shaped by international conservation discourse. Also, the operational sphere of such policy ideas and narratives - including actors, resources, discourses, and rules - along with trends, priorities, institutional arrangements, and driving factors of ER policies, has changed over time. Further, the exclusion of deprived communities and the capture of conservation benefits by elites have undermined conservation values. This research stresses the importance of a judicious balance between people's welfare and nature's integrity, emphasizing community-based natural resource management models accredited to a conservation standard. We further urge the revision of displacement-oriented conservation policies to secure the rights of Indigenous people and traditional landholders, thereby ensuring conservation and sustainable development at both national and global levels.

Predicting the current habitat refugia of Himalayan Musk deer (Moschus chrysogaster) across Nepal.

Himalayan Musk deer, Moschus chrysogaster is widely distributed but one of the least studied species in Nepal. In this study, we compiled a total of 429 current presence points of direct observation of the species, pellets droppings, and hoofmarks based on field-based surveys during 2018-2021 and periodic data held by the Department of National Park and Wildlife Conservation. We developed the species distribution model using an ensemble modeling approach. We used a combination of bioclimatic, anthropogenic, topographic, and vegetation-related variables to predict the current suitable habitat for Himalayan Musk deer in Nepal. A total of 16 predictor variables were used for habitat suitability modeling after the multicollinearity test. The study shows that the 6973.76 km2 (5%) area of Nepal is highly suitable and 8387.11 km2 (6%) is moderately suitable for HMD. The distribution of HMD shows mainly by precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the warmest quarter, temperature ranges, distance to water bodies, anthropogenic variables, and land use and land cover change (LULC). The probability of occurrence is less in habitats with low forest cover. The response curves indicate that the probability of occurrence of HMD decreases with an increase in precipitation seasonality and remains constant with an increase in precipitation of the warmest quarter. Thus, the fortune of the species distribution will be limited by anthropogenic factors like poaching, hunting, habitat fragmentation and habitat degradation, and long-term forces of climate change.

Transforming agroforestry in contested landscapes: A win-win solution to trade-offs in ecosystem services in Nepal.

Trade-offs in ecosystem services (ES) is increasingly becoming a pressing issue in sustainability science, to deal with supply constraints of landscape and divergence in demand from local and global stakeholders. Agroforestry is a well acknowledged and established management practice to minimize the trade-offs, and to sustainably manage the contested landscapes while satisfying the growing demands of both local and global ecosystem beneficiaries. However, various facets of agroforestry, its management modality, institutional arrangements, and implementation outcomes are inadequately understood. This paper aims to scrutinize major agroforestry practices through the methods of systematic review of literature, government policies, and project reports. Taking a case of Nepal, this paper presents agroforestry transition from forest-based agroforestry (i.e., shifting cultivation) to farm-based integrated approach to agroforestry in Nepal. This paper reveals that integrated agro-forestry approach is crucial in creating win-win scenarios among various stakeholders by minimizing trade-offs and maximizing synergies among ES, especially food, fibre, and other ES (i.e., biodiversity, soil functioning, water, and climate regulation). Analysing socio-economic, ecological, and institutional factors that are affecting agroforestry for the last fifty years, we further suggest an integrated model of agroforestry which is replicable in other countries with similar socio-economic status, practicing subsistence farming system. The findings of the paper are crucial in awakening scholars, policy makers and landscape managers for up-scaling and out-scaling of integrated approach to agroforestry for ecosystem management and attainment of various sustainable development goals such as, no poverty (#1), zero hunger (#2), climate action (#13), and life on land (#15).

Understanding local ecosystem dynamics in three provinces of the lowlands of Nepal.

Incidences of failure of sustainable ecosystem management policies, especially in the developing world are partly attributable due to a lack of political will and inadequate understanding of ecosystem dynamics (ED) at the local levels. In this study, we endeavor to comprehend the dynamics of two ecosystems - forest and agriculture - by employing a resource-friendly participatory approach based on stake-taking the experiences of indigenous and forest-dependent local stakeholders in three lowland provinces of Nepal and is guided by the theory of socio-ecological concept. An in-depth survey (n = 136) was conducted using semi-structured questionnaires, key informant interviews (n = 9), and focus group discussions (n = 4) for data generation, and generalized linear models were used to test whether understanding of ED is uniform across the socio-ecological landscape. We identified that various attributes of forests and agricultural ecosystems have altered substantially earlier than 30 years (hereafter, earlier decade) relative to the present (hereafter, later decade). Apart from the natural processes including anthropogenic and climatic factors, technological innovations played a significant role in altering ecosystems in the later decade. Understanding of ED among forest-dependent stakeholders significantly varied with respect to gender, occupation, age group, gender-based water fetching responsibility, and water-fetching duration, however, no significant correlation was observed with their level of education across the landscape. The studied ecosystem attributes significantly correlate with water regime changes, signifying that water-centric ecosystem management is crucial. The attributes that observed significant dynamics in the forest ecosystem include changes in forest cover, structure and species composition, the severity of invasive species, wildfires, water regimes, and abundance and behavioral changes in mammals and avifauna. The alteration of crop cultivation and harvesting season which results in a decrease in yield, increased use of chemicals (fertilizers and pesticides), an increase in fallow land, and the proliferation of hybrid variety cultivation in the later decade are significant disparities in the dynamics of the agriculture ecosystem. To withstand the accelerated ED, stakeholders adopt various strategies, however, these strategies are either obtained from unsustainable sources entail high costs and technology, or are detrimental to the ecosystems. In relation, we present specific examples of ecosystem attributes that have significantly experienced changes in the later decade compared to the earlier decades along with plausible future pathways for policy decisions sustaining and stewardship of dynamic ecosystems across the socio-ecological landscape.