Testing the intrinsic mechanisms driving the dynamics of Ross River Virus across Australia.

The mechanisms driving dynamics of many epidemiologically important mosquito-borne pathogens are complex, involving combinations of vector and host factors (e.g., species composition and life-history traits), and factors associated with transmission and reporting. Understanding which intrinsic mechanisms contribute most to observed disease dynamics is important, yet often poorly understood. Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most important mosquito-borne disease, with variable transmission dynamics across geographic regions. We used deterministic ordinary differential equation models to test mechanisms driving RRV dynamics across major epidemic centers in Brisbane, Darwin, Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, and Coorong. We considered models with up to two vector species (Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Aedes camptorhynchus, Culex globocoxitus), two reservoir hosts (macropods, possums), seasonal transmission effects, and transmission parameters. We fit models against long-term RRV surveillance data (1991-2017) and used Akaike Information Criterion to select important mechanisms. The combination of two vector species, two reservoir hosts, and seasonal transmission effects explained RRV dynamics best across sites. Estimated vector-human transmission rate (average ß = 8.04x10-4per vector per day) was similar despite different dynamics. Models estimate 43% underreporting of RRV infections. Findings enhance understanding of RRV transmission mechanisms, provide disease parameter estimates which can be used to guide future research into public health improvements and offer a basis to evaluate mitigation practices.

Impact of a model of care for heart failure in-patients to reduce variation in care: a quality improvement project.

BACKGROUND: We identified variation in delivery of guideline recommended care at our institution, and undertook a project to design a heart failure (HF) model of care. AIM: To maximise time patients with HF spend well in the community by delivering best practice guidelines to reduce variation in care improving overall outcomes. METHODS: This quality improvement project focused on reducing variation in process measures of care. The HF model of care included electronic HF care bundles, a patient education pack with staff training on delivering HF patient education, referral of all HF patients to the Hospital Admissions Risk Program for phone call within 72 h, and a nurse-pharmacist early follow-up clinic. Outcomes were assessed using interrupted time series analyses. RESULTS: The pre-intervention group comprised 1585 patients, and post-intervention 1720 patients with a primary diagnosis of HF admitted under general cardiology and general medicine. Interrupted time series analysis indicated 30-day readmissions did not change in overall trend (-0.2% per month, P = 0.479) but a significant immediate step-down of 7.8% was seen (P = 0.018). For 90-day readmissions, a significant trend reduction over the time period was seen (-0.6% per month, P = 0.017) with a significant immediate step-down (-9.4%, P = 0.001). Emergency department representations, in-patient mortality and length of stay did not change significantly. Improvements in process measures were seen at audit. CONCLUSION: This model of care resulted in overall trends of reductions in 30- and 90-day readmissions, without increasing emergency department representations, mortality and length of stay. This model will be adapted as the electronic medical record is introduced at our institution.

Intense interseasonal influenza outbreaks, Australia, 2018/19.

BackgroundInterseasonal influenza outbreaks are not unusual in countries with temperate climates and well-defined influenza seasons. Usually, these are small and diminish before the main influenza season begins. However, the 2018/19 summer-autumn interseasonal influenza period in Australia saw unprecedented large and widespread influenza outbreaks.AimOur objective was to determine the extent of the intense 2018/19 interseasonal influenza outbreaks in Australia epidemiologically and examine the genetic, antigenic and structural properties of the viruses responsible for these outbreaks.MethodsThis observational study combined the epidemiological and virological surveillance data obtained from the Australian Government Department of Health, the New South Wales Ministry of Health, sentinel outpatient surveillance, public health laboratories and data generated by the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne and the Singapore Agency for Science, Technology and Research.ResultsThere was a record number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases during the interseasonal period November 2018 to May 2019 (n= 85,286; 5 times the previous 3-year average) and also more institutional outbreaks, hospitalisations and deaths, than what is normally seen.ConclusionsThe unusually large interseasonal influenza outbreaks in 2018/19 followed a mild 2018 influenza season and resulted in a very early start to the 2019 influenza season across Australia. The reasons for this unusual event have yet to be fully elucidated but are likely to be a complex mix of climatic, virological and host immunity-related factors. These outbreaks reinforce the need for year-round surveillance of influenza, even in temperate climates with strong seasonality patterns.

Prevention of perinatal hepatitis B virus transmission: are we following guidelines?

It is recommended that infants born to women with hepatitis B infection should have serological review following completion of a four dose vaccination schedule. A review was undertaken on 102 neonates who received hepatitis B immunoglobulin to ascertain the proportion that were fully immunised and then followed up. Of the 66 infants for whom data were available, 65 (98.5%) had appropriately received four doses of hepatitis B vaccine in infancy and a further child had received three doses. Only 19/66 (29%; 95%CI: 18-41%) infants had documented follow-up serology results, one of whom was infected and one of whom was immune through clearance of infection. All children who had no serology documented were traced and offered testing in primary care. Our results demonstrate that although adherence to the vaccination schedule in this group of infants was good, mechanisms for ensuring that infants receive serology testing need to be strengthened.

An outbreak of Salmonella Saintpaul gastroenteritis after attending a school camp in the Northern Territory, Australia.

An outbreak of salmonellosis occurred following attendance at a school camp between 5 and 8 August 2014 in a remote area of the Northern Territory, Australia. We conducted a retrospective cohort study via telephone interviews, using a structured questionnaire that recorded symptoms and exposures to foods and activities during the camp. A case was anyone with laboratory confirmed Salmonella Saintpaul infection or a clinically compatible illness after attending the camp. Environmental health officers from the Environmental Health Branch undertook an investigation and collected water and environmental samples. We interviewed 65 (97%) of the 67 people who attended the camp. There were 60 students and 7 adults. Of the 65 people interviewed, 30 became ill (attack rate 46%); all were students; and 4 had laboratory confirmed S. Saintpaul infection. The most commonly reported symptoms were diarrhoea (100% 30/30), abdominal pain (93% 28/30), nausea (93% 28/30) and fever (70% 21/30). Thirteen people sought medical attention but none required hospitalisation. Illness was significantly associated with drinking cordial at lunch on 7 August (RR 3.8, 95% CI 1.3-11, P < 0.01), as well as drinking cordial at lunch on 8 August (RR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1-4.2, P=0.01). Salmonella spp. was not detected in water samples or wallaby faeces collected from the camp ground. The epidemiological investigation suggests the outbreak was caused by environmental contamination of food or drink and could have occurred during ice preparation or storage, preparation of the cordial or from inadequate sanitising of the cooler from which the cordial was served. This outbreak highlights the risks of food or drink contamination with environmental Salmonella. Those preparing food and drink in campground settings should be vigilant with cleaning, handwashing and disinfection to prevent outbreaks of foodborne disease.

An outbreak of salmonellosis associated with duck prosciutto at a Northern Territory restaurant.

In June 2015, an outbreak of salmonellosis occurred among people who had eaten at a restaurant in Darwin, Northern Territory over 2 consecutive nights. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of diners who ate at the restaurant on 19 and 20 June 2015. Diners were telephoned and a questionnaire recorded symptoms and menu items consumed. An outbreak case was defined as anyone with laboratory confirmed Salmonella Typhimurium PT9 (STm9) or a clinically compatible illness after eating at the restaurant. Environmental health officers inspected the premises and collected food samples. We contacted 79/83 of the cohort (response rate 95%); 21 were cases (attack rate 27%), and 9 had laboratory confirmed STm9 infection. The most commonly reported symptoms were diarrhoea (100%), abdominal pain (95%), fever (95%) and nausea (95%). Fifteen people sought medical attention and 7 presented to hospital. The outbreak was most likely caused by consumption of duck prosciutto, which was consumed by all cases (OR 18.6, CI 3.0-∞, P < 0.01) and was prepared on site. Salmonella was not detected in any food samples but a standard plate count of 2 x 107 colony forming units per gram on samples of duck prosciutto demonstrated bacterial contamination. The restaurant used inappropriate methodology for curing the duck prosciutto. Restaurants should consider purchasing pre-made cured meats, or if preparing them on site, ensure that they adhere to safe methods of production.

Seroepidemiologic effects of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.

To estimate population attack rates of influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 in the Southern Hemisphere during June-August 2009, we conducted several serologic studies. We pooled individual-level data from studies using hemagglutination inhibition assays performed in Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore. We determined seropositive proportions (titer ≥40) for each study region by age-group and sex in pre- and postpandemic phases, as defined by jurisdictional notification data. After exclusions, the pooled database consisted of, 4,414 prepandemic assays and 7,715 postpandemic assays. In the prepandemic phase, older age groups showed greater seropositive proportions, with age-standardized, community-based proportions ranging from 3.5% in Singapore to 11.9% in New Zealand. In the postpandemic phase, seropositive proportions ranged from 17.5% in Singapore to 30.8% in New Zealand, with highest proportions seen in school-aged children. Pregnancy and residential care were associated with lower postpandemic seropositivity, whereas Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians and Pacific Peoples of New Zealand had greater postpandemic seropositivity.

Estimating Australian Hospitalization Ratios and Costs for Wildtype SARS-CoV-2 in 2020.

Utilizing a retrospective cohort study of SARS-CoV-2 wildtype (Wuhan) strain, we aimed to 1) utilize the unique Australian experience of temporarily eliminating SARS-CoV-2 to document and estimate the hospitalization demand; and 2) estimate the inpatient hospital costs associated with treatment. Case data was based on Victoria Australia from March 29 to December 31, 2020. Outcomes measures included hospitalization demand and case fatality ratio and inpatient hospitalization costs. Population adjusted results indicated that 10.2% (CI 9.9%-10.5%) required ward only admission, 1.0% (CI 0.9%-1.1%) required ICU admission plus 1.0% (CI 0.9%-1.1%) required ICU with mechanical ventilation. The overall case fatality ratio was 2.9% (CI 2.7%-3.1%). Mean ward only patient costs ranged from $22,714 to $57,100 per admission whilst ICU patient costs ranged from $37,228 to $140,455. With delayed, manageable outbreaks and public health measures leading to temporary elimination of community transmission, the Victorian COVID-19 data provides insight into initial pandemic severity and hospital costs.

Imported malaria in the Northern Territory, Australia--428 consecutive cases.

Malaria is a notifiable disease in Australia with an average of 600 notifications per year in returned travellers or newly arrived refugees, migrants and visitors. Although endemic disease has been eliminated from the tropical north of Australia, the region remains malaria receptive due to the presence of efficient mosquito vectors. This study analyses enhanced surveillance data collected by the Centre for Disease Control on all cases of malaria notified in the Northern Territory from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2010. There were 428 malaria episodes notified that occurred in 391 individuals with a median age of 26 years. Of these, 71.4% were male, 40.5% were Australian nationals and 38.0% were prescribed chemoprophylaxis. Primary infection consisted of 196 (51.3%) cases of Plasmodium falciparum, 165 (43.2%) P. vivax, 2 (0.5%) P. ovale, 1 (0.3%) P. malariae and 18 were mixed infections. There were 46 episodes of relapsed infection. Residents of non-malarious countries were most likely to have acquired primary infection in East Timor (40.6%), Papua New Guinea (27.8%), Indonesia (18.7%) and Africa (6.4%). Primary infection was diagnosed after a median 19 days (interquartile range (IQR) 7-69) after arrival in Australia for cases of P. vivax compared with 4 days for P. falciparum (IQR 2-11). Screening protocols led to the diagnosis of 27.2% of cases. Eighty-seven per cent of patients were admitted to hospital at the time of their malaria diagnosis with median duration of 3 days (IQR 2-4) and one patient died. Resettlement of people from endemic countries, as well as military and civilian activities, influences the prevailing notification rates and Plasmodium species type.

Association of Built Environmental Features with Rates of Infectious Diseases in Remote Indigenous Communities in the Northern Territory, Australia.

The health of Indigenous Australians is far poorer than non-Indigenous Australians, including an excess burden of infectious diseases. The health effect of built environmental (BE) features on Indigenous communities receives little attention. This study's objective was to determine associations between BE features and infectious disease incidence rates in remote Indigenous communities in the Northern Territory (NT), Australia. Remote Indigenous communities (n = 110) were spatially joined to 93 Indigenous Locations (ILOC). Outcomes data were extracted (NT Notifiable Diseases System) and expressed as ILOC-specific incidence rates. Counts of buildings were extracted from community asset maps and grouped by function. Age-adjusted infectious disease rates were dichotomised, and bivariate binomial regression used to determine the relationships between BE variables and infectious disease. Infrastructure Shelter BE features were universally associated with significantly elevated disease outcomes (relative risk 1.67 to 2.03). Significant associations were observed for Services, Arena, Community, Childcare, Oval, and Sports and recreation BE features. BE groupings associated with disease outcomes were those with communal and/or social design intent or use. Comparable BE groupings without this intent or use did not associate with disease outcomes. While discouraging use of communal BE features during infectious disease outbreaks is a conceptually valid countermeasure, communal activities have additional health benefits themselves, and infectious disease transmission could instead be reduced through repairs to infrastructure, and more infrastructure. This is the first study to examine these associations simultaneously in more than a handful of remote Indigenous communities to illustrate community-level rather than aggregated population-level associations.

Hepatitis B prevalence in women giving birth in the Northern Territory, Australia, 2005-2015.

Background: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination in the Northern Territory (NT) was funded for all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander newborns in 1988 and for all newborns in 1990. The prevalence of HBV in the Northern Territory was found to be higher in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women than in non-Indigenous women across 2005-2010. We examined more recent data to assess whether the gap remains. Methods: We linked data from two routinely collected registries, the NT Perinatal Register and the NT Notifiable Diseases System, to investigate the prevalence of HBV infection, according to eligibility for infant HBV vaccination, in women giving birth during 2005-2015. Results: There were 22,781 women recorded as giving birth in public hospitals in the Northern Territory during 2005-2015. Hepatitis B virus prevalence was highest in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (1.8%) and overseas-born women (1.8%). Among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, estimated hepatitis B virus prevalence was significantly higher in those born before the implementation of the vaccination program than in those born afterwards (2.4% versus 0.3%). Prevalence was highest amongst those living in very remote areas, both overall (2.2%) and within the birth cohort eligible for HBV vaccination. Conclusions: Hepatitis B virus prevalence in Northern Territory Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women appears to be declining as more individuals vaccinated as part of infant vaccination programs reach adulthood. Prevalence remains highest in remote areas, highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring and of promoting vaccination in these regions.

Differential effects of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 on remote and indigenous groups, Northern Territory, Australia, 2009.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza spread through the Northern Territory, Australia, during June-August 2009. We performed 2 cross-sectional serologic surveys on specimens from Northern Territory residents, with 445 specimens obtained prepandemic and 1,689 specimens postpandemic. Antibody titers were determined by hemagglutination inhibition against reference virus A/California/7/2009 on serum samples collected opportunistically from outpatients. All specimens had data for patients' gender, age, and address, with patients' indigenous status determined for 94.1%. Protective immunity (titer >40) was present in 7.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.2%-10.1%) of prepandemic specimens and 19.5% (95% CI 17.6%-21.4%) of postpandemic specimens, giving a population-standardized attack rate of 14.9% (95% CI 11.0%-18.9%). Prepandemic proportion of immune persons was greater with increasing age but did not differ by other demographic characteristics. Postpandemic proportion of immune persons was greater in younger groups and around double in indigenous persons. Postpandemic proportion immune was geographically heterogeneous, particularly among remote-living and indigenous groups.

The Darwin Prospective Melioidosis Study: a 30-year prospective, observational investigation.

BACKGROUND: The global distribution of melioidosis is under considerable scrutiny, with both unmasking of endemic disease in African and Pacific nations and evidence of more recent dispersal in the Americas. Because of the high incidence of disease in tropical northern Australia, The Darwin Prospective Melioidosis Study commenced in October, 1989. We present epidemiology, clinical features, outcomes, and bacterial genomics from this 30-year study, highlighting changes in the past decade. METHODS: The present study was a prospective analysis of epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory data for all culture-confirmed melioidosis cases from the tropical Northern Territory of Australia from Oct 1, 1989, until Sept 30, 2019. Cases were identified on the basis of culture-confirmed melioidosis, a laboratory-notifiable disease in the Northern Territory of Australia. Patients who were culture-positive were included in the study. Multivariable analysis determined predictors of clinical presentations and outcome. Incidence, survival, and cluster analyses were facilitated by population and rainfall data and genotyping of Burkholderia pseudomallei, including multilocus sequence typing and whole-genome sequencing. FINDINGS: There were 1148 individuals with culture-confirmed melioidosis, of whom 133 (12%) died. Median age was 50 years (IQR 38-60), 48 (4%) study participants were children younger than 15 years of age, 721 (63%) were male individuals, and 600 (52%) Indigenous Australians. All but 186 (16%) had clinical risk factors, 513 (45%) had diabetes, and 455 (40%) hazardous alcohol use. Only three (2%) of 133 fatalities had no identified risk. Pneumonia was the most common presentation occurring in 595 (52%) patients. Bacteraemia occurred in 633 (56%) of 1135 patients, septic shock in 240 (21%) patients, and 180 (16%) patients required mechanical ventilation. Cases correlated with rainfall, with 80% of infections occurring during the wet season (November to April). Median annual incidence was 20·5 cases per 100 000 people; the highest annual incidence in Indigenous Australians was 103·6 per 100 000 in 2011-12. Over the 30 years, annual incidences increased, as did the proportion of patients with diabetes, although mortality decreased to 17 (6%) of 278 patients over the past 5 years. Genotyping of B pseudomallei confirmed case clusters linked to environmental sources and defined evolving and new sequence types. INTERPRETATION: Melioidosis is an opportunistic infection with a diverse spectrum of clinical presentations and severity. With early diagnosis, specific antimicrobial therapy, and state-of-the-art intensive care, mortality can be reduced to less than 10%. However, mortality remains much higher in the many endemic regions where health resources remain scarce. Genotyping of B pseudomallei informs evolving local and global epidemiology. FUNDING: The Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Meningitis and a febrile vomiting illness caused by echovirus type 4, Northern Territory, Australia.

In July 2007, a cluster of meningitis cases caused by an echovirus 4 strain was detected in 1 indigenous community in the Top End of the Northern Territory of Australia. Illness was characterized by fever, vomiting, and headache. Over the next 4 months, additional cases of meningitis and the fever and vomiting syndrome emerged in other indigenous communities and subsequently in the major urban center of Darwin. We describe the epidemiology of 95 laboratory-confirmed meningitis cases and conclude that the epidemic fever and vomiting syndrome was caused by the same enterovirus. Nucleotide sequencing of the whole genome verified this enterovirus (AUS250G) as a strain of echovirus type 4. Viral protein 1 nucleotide sequencing demonstrated 96% homology with an echovirus 4 strain responsible for a large outbreak of meningitis in the Yanbian Prefecture of China in 1996.

Physical distancing and non-respiratory notifiable diseases in the Northern Territory, March-May 2020.

ABSTRACT: Strict physical distancing measures and border controls have been introduced in the Northern Territory (NT), and across Australia, to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). These measures have been associated with reduced incidence of other respiratory illnesses such as influenza. It is currently unclear what effect these measures have on non-respiratory communicable diseases. The incidence of notifiable non-respiratory communicable diseases within the NT, from 15 March to 15 May 2020, the period of most restrictive physical distancing, was monitored and is here compared with two control periods: (i) the 4 months immediately prior and (ii) the same two-month period from the preceding 5 years. During the study period, there was a decline in incidence of communicable enteric illnesses, particularly in shigellosis and rotavirus where person-to-person spread is the main transmission route. There was an increase in chlamydial conjunctivitis in areas with endemic trachoma, which is under further investigation. There was no observed increase in conditions associated with crowding, such as those related to group A streptococcal infection.

Neurosyphilis: Still prevalent and overlooked in an at risk population.

BACKGROUND: Neurosyphilis (NS) presents with a variety of clinical syndromes that can be attributed to other aetiologies due to difficulties in its diagnosis. We reviewed all cases of NS from the "Top End" of the Australian Northern Territory over a ten-year period to assess incidence, clinical and laboratory manifestations. METHODS: Patient data (2007-2016) were extracted from hospital records, centralised laboratory data and Northern Territory Centre for Disease Control records. Clinical records of patients with clinically suspected NS were reviewed. A diagnosis of NS was made based on the 2014 US CDC criteria. Results were also recategorized based on the 2018 US CDC criteria. RESULTS: The population of the "Top End" is 185,570, of whom 26.2% are Indigenous. A positive TPPA was recorded in 3126 individuals. A total of 75 (2.4%) of TPPA positive patients had a lumbar puncture (LP), of whom 25 (35%) were diagnosed with NS (9 definite, 16 probable). Dementia was the most common manifestation (58.3%), followed by epilepsy (16.7%), psychosis (12.5%), tabes dorsalis (12.5%) and meningovascular syphilis (8.3%). 63% of probable NS cases were not treated appropriately due to a negative CSF VDRL. Despite increased specificity of the 2018 US CDC criteria, 70% of patient in the probable NS group were not treated appropriately. The overall annual incidence [95%CI] of NS was 2.47[1.28-4.31] per 100 000py in the Indigenous population and 0.95[0.50-1.62] in the non-Indigenous population (rate ratio = 2.60 [1.19-5.70];p = 0.017). CONCLUSION: Neurosyphilis is frequently reported in the NT, particularly in Indigenous populations. Disturbingly, 60% of probable neurosyphilis patients based on the 2014 criteria, and 70% based on the 2018 criteria with were not treated appropriately. It is critical that clinicians should be aware of the diagnosis of NS and treat patients appropriately.

Epidemiological trends in notified influenza cases in Australia's Northern Territory, 2007-2016.

BACKGROUND: The Northern Territory (NT) of Australia has a mix of climates, sparsely distributed population and a large proportion of the populace are Indigenous Australians, and influenza is known to have a disproportionate impact upon this group. Understanding the epidemiology of influenza in this region would inform public health strategies. OBJECTIVES: To assess if there are consistent patterns in characteristics of influenza outbreaks in the NT. METHODS: Laboratory confirmed influenza cases in the NT are notified to the NT Centre for Disease Control. We conducted analyses on notified cases from 2007-2016 to determine incidence rates (by age group, Indigenous status and area), seasonality of cases and spatial distribution of influenza types. Notified cases were linked to laboratory datasets to update information on influenza type or subtype RESULTS: The disparity in Indigenous and non-Indigenous notification rates varied by age group, with rate ratios for Indigenous versus non-Indigenous ranging from 1.58 (95% CI:1.39, 1.80) for ages 15-24 to 5.56 (95% CI: 4.71, 6.57) for ages 55-64. The disparity between Indigenous and non-Indigenous notification rates appeared higher in the Central Australia region. Indigenous versus non-Indigenous hospitalisation and mortality rate ratios were 6.51 (95% CI: 5.91, 7.18) and 5.46 (95% CI: 2.40, 12.71) respectively. Inter-seasonal peaks during February and March occurred in 2011, 2013 and 2014, and were due to influenza activity in the tropical north of the NT. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the importance of influenza vaccination across all age groups for Indigenous Australians. An early vaccination campaign targeted against outbreaks in February-March would be best focused on the tropical north.

The first 2 months of COVID-19 contact tracing in the Northern Territory of Australia, March-April 2020.

The Northern Territory (NT) Centre for Disease Control (CDC) undertook contact tracing of all notified cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) within the Territory. There were 28 cases of COVID-19 notified in the NT between 1 March and 30 April 2020. In total 527 people were identified as close contacts over the same period; 493 were successfully contacted; 445 were located in the NT and were subsequently quarantined and monitored for disease symptoms daily for 14 days after contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case. Of these 445 close contacts, 4 tested positive for COVID-19 after developing symptoms; 2/46 contacts who were cruise ship passengers (4.3%, 95% CI 0.5-14.8%) and 2/51 household contacts (3.9%, 95% CI 0.5-13.5%). None of the 326 aircraft passengers or 4 healthcare workers who were being monitored in the NT as close contacts became cases.

Prevalence and impact of non-cardiovascular comorbidities among older adults hospitalized for non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of information on the prognostic importance of non-cardiovascular comorbidities (NCCs) among patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). This study examined the prevalence and impact of NCCs on the length of stay (LOS) and mortality among older adults hospitalized for NSTE-ACS. METHODS: Among 1,488 older adults (mean age 79.4±8.4 years; 62.0% male) hospitalized for NSTE-ACS at a tertiary hospital in Melbourne, Australia, during 2013-2015, we collected data on comorbidities, LOS, and discharge outcomes. Thirteen NCCs were studied. Negative binomial and Cox proportional regression models were applied to examine the association between NCCs and LOS and in-hospital death, respectively. RESULTS: Approximately 53% of the patients had ≥1 NCCs. Diabetes and renal disease as well as anemia and renal disease co-existed more frequently than expected. Compared to having no NCCs, having one NCC was not associated with a significant increase in the likelihood of longer LOS [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.07; 95% CI: 0.99-1.15; P=0.085] or in-hospital death [hazard ratio (HR) 1.11; 95% CI: 0.65-1.90; P=0.707]. However, having ≥2 NCCs was associated with 22% and 79% increased likelihood of longer LOS (IRR 1.22, 95% CI: 1.11-1.33; P<0.001) and in-hospital death (HR 1.79, 95% CI: 1.06-3.03; P=0.029), respectively, compared to not having any NCC. Certain NCC dyads [e.g., chronic pulmonary disease (CPD) + renal disease] exhibited multiplicative effect such that their impact on patients' LOS or survival exceeded the sum of the individual effects of the component NCCs. CONCLUSIONS: Over half of older patients hospitalized with NSTE-ACS had NCCs. A higher burden of NCCs correlated with increased LOS and lower survival. Contemporary ACS management guidelines need to recognize and incorporate protocols for the treatment of individuals with multiple chronic conditions to reduce the occurrence of adverse outcomes.

Predictive indicators for Ross River virus infection in the Darwin area of tropical northern Australia, using long-term mosquito trapping data.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the epidemiology of Ross River virus (RRV) infection in the endemic Darwin region of tropical northern Australia and to develop a predictive model for RRV infections. METHODS: Analysis of laboratory confirmed cases of RRV infection between 01 January 1991 and 30 June 2006, together with climate, tidal and mosquito data collected weekly over the study period from 11 trap sites around Darwin. The epidemiology was described, correlations with various lag times were performed, followed by Poisson modelling to determine the best main effects model to predict RRV infection. RESULTS: Ross River virus infection was reported equally in males and females in 1256 people over the 15.5 years. Average annual incidence was 113/100 000 people. Infections peaked in the 30-34 age-group for both sexes. Correlations revealed strong associations between monthly RRV infections and climatic variables and also each of the four implicated mosquito species populations. Three models were created to identify the best predictors of RRV infections for the Darwin area. The climate-only model included total rainfall, average daily minimum temperature and maximum tide. This model explained 44.3% deviance. Using vector-only variables, the best fit was obtained with average monthly trap numbers of Culex annulirostris, Aedes phaecasiatus, Aedes notoscriptus and Aedes vigilax. This model explained 59.5% deviance. The best global model included rainfall, minimum temperature and three mosquito species. This model explained 63.5% deviance, and predicted disease accurately. CONCLUSIONS: We have produced a model that accurately predicts RRV infections throughout the year, in the Darwin region. Our model also indicates that predicted anthropogenic global climatic changes may result in an increase in RRV infections. Further research needs to target other high-risk areas elsewhere in tropical Australia to ascertain the best local climatic and vector predictive RRV infection models for each region. This methodology can also be tested for assessing utility of predictive models for other mosquito-borne diseases endemic to locations outside Australia.