Neighborhood Racial and Ethnic Predominance, Child Opportunity, and Violence-Related Mortality among Children and Adolescents in Chicago.

Our objective was to determine whether Child Opportunity Index (COI), a measure of neighborhood socioeconomic and built environment specific to children, mediated the relationship of census tract Black or Hispanic predominance with increased rates of census tract violence-related mortality. The hypothesis was that COI would partially mediate the relationship. This cross-sectional study combined data from the American Community Survey 5-year estimates, the COI 2.0, and the Illinois Violent Death Reporting System 2015-2019 for the City of Chicago. Individuals ages 0-19 years were included. The primary exposure was census tract Black, Hispanic, White, and other race predominance (> 50% of population). The primary outcome was census tract violence-related mortality. A mediation analysis was performed to evaluate the role of COI as a potential mediator. Multivariable logistic regression modeling census tract violence-related mortality demonstrated a direct effect of census tract Black predominance (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30-5.14) on violence-related mortality compared to White predominance. There was no association of census tract Hispanic predominance with violence-related mortality compared to White predominance (aOR 1.57, 95% CI 0.88-2.84). Approximately 64.9% (95% CI 60.2-80.0%) of the effect of census tract Black predominance and 67.9% (95% CI 61.2-200%) of the effect of census tract Hispanic predominance on violence-related mortality was indirect via COI. COI partially mediated the effect of census tract Black and Hispanic predominance on census tract violence-related mortality. Interventions that target neighborhood social and economic factors should be considered to reduce violence-related mortality among children and adolescents.

Investigating the 2016 surge in firearm violence in Illinois, USA, through community-based organisations: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Illinois experienced a historic firearm violence surge in 2016 with a decline to baseline rates in 2018. This study aimed to understand this 2016 surge through the direct accounts of violence prevention community-based organisations (CBOs) in Illinois. METHODS: We conducted semistructured interviews with 20 representatives from 13 CBOs from the south and west sides of greater Chicago metropolitan area. Interviews were audio recorded, coded and analysed thematically. RESULTS: We identified lack of government-derived infrastructure and systemic poverty as the central themes of Illinois's 2016 firearm violence surge. Participants highlighted the Illinois Budget Impasse halted funding for violence prevention efforts, leading to 2016's violence. This occurred in the context of a strained relationship with the criminal justice system, where disengagement from police and mistrust in the justice system led victims and families to seek justice outside of the judicial system. Participants emphasised that systemic poverty and the obliteration of community support structures led to overwhelming desperation, which, in turn, increased risky behaviours perceived as necessary for survival. Participants disproportionately identified that this impacted the young people in their communities. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of government-derived infrastructure and systemic poverty were the central themes of the 2016 firearm violence surge. The insights gained from the 2016 surge are applicable to understanding both current and future surges. CBOs focused on violence prevention offer insights into the context and conditions fuelling surges in the epidemic of violence.

Older adult drug overdose: an application of latent class analysis to identify prevention opportunities.

BACKGROUND: Older adult overdose death rates have increased significantly in recent years. However, research for prevention of drug overdose death specific to older adults is limited. Our objective is to identify profiles based on missed intervention points (touchpoints) to inform prevention of future older adult unintentional overdose deaths. METHODS: We used latent class analysis methods to identify profiles of decedents aged 55 + years in the Illinois Statewide Unintentional Drug Overdose Reporting System. This system collects data on 92.6% of all unintentional overdose deaths in Illinois and includes data from death certificates, coroner/medical examiner, toxicology, and autopsy reports. Data include decedent demographics, circumstances leading up to and surrounding the fatal overdose and details regarding the overdose. Variables in the latent class analysis model included sex, race, alcohol test result, social isolation, recent emergency department (ED) visit, chronic pain, and pain treatment. RESULTS: We identified three distinct decent profiles. Class 1 (13% of decedents) included female decedents who were in pain treatment, had physical health problems, and had greater likelihood of a recent ED visit before their death. Class 2 (35% of decedents) decedents were most likely to be socially connected (live with others, employed, had social or family relationships) but less likely to have recent healthcare visits. Class 3 (52% of decedents) decedents had higher social isolation (lived alone, unemployed, unpartnered), were mostly male, had fewer known physical health conditions, and more alcohol positivity at time of death. White decedents are clustered in class 1 while Black decedents are predominant in classes 2 and 3. CONCLUSIONS: These profiles link to potential touchpoint opportunities for substance use disorder screening harm reduction and treatment. Class 1 members were most likely to be reachable in healthcare settings. However, most decedents were members of Classes 2 and 3 with less engagement in the healthcare system, suggesting a need for screening and intervention in different contexts. For Class 2, intervention touchpoints might include education and screening in work or social settings such as senior centers given the higher degree of social connectivity. For Class 3, the most isolated group, touchpoints may occur in the context of harm reduction outreach and social service delivery.

Health care and harm reduction provider perspectives on treating older adults who use non-medical opioids: a qualitative study set in Chicago.

BACKGROUND: Opioid overdose death rates are increasing for adults aged 55 and older, with especially high rates in large urban areas. In parallel, admissions to treatment programs for older adults using illicit substances are increasing as well. Despite these trends, there is a lack of information about older adults who use non-medical opioids (NMO) and even less knowledge about their health and service encounters. Conducted in Chicago, Illinois, this qualitative study explores the perspectives of health care and harm reduction service providers who work with older adults using non-medical opioids. METHODS: The study used snowball sampling to locate participants with expertise in working with older adults who use non-medical opioids. In total, we conducted 26 semi-structured interviews from September 2021-August 2022. We explored questions regarding participants' perceptions of older adult opioid use patterns, comorbidities, and involvement in harm reduction outreach and opioid use disorder treatment. RESULTS: Many of the providers we interviewed consider older adults who use NMO as a distinct population that employ unique use behaviors with the intent to protect them from opioid overdose. However, these same unique behaviors may potentiate their risk for overdose in today's climate. Providers report initial encounters that are not care seeking for opioid use and primarily oriented around health conditions. Older adults who use non-medical opioids are seen as complex patients due to the need to diagnostically untangle symptoms of substance use from co-morbidities and conditions associated with aging. Treatment for this population is also viewed as complicated due to the interactions between aging, comorbidities, and substance use. Providers also noted that older adults who use NMO have use behaviors that make them less visible to outreach and treatment service providers, potentially putting them at increased risk for overdose and health conditions associated with opioid use. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study are intended to inform future research on care provision for older adults who use non-medical opioids and may be especially applicable to large urban reas with histories of opioid use dating back to earlier drug epidemics of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.

A cross-sectional study of opioid involvement in non-poisoning suicide - risks and prevention opportunities.

OBJECTIVE: To examine prevalence, demographic, and incident factors associated with opioid-positivity in Illinois suicide decedents who died by causes other than poisoning. METHOD: Cross-sectional study of Illinois' suicide decedents occurring between January 2015 and December 2017. Data come from the National Violent Death Reporting System. We used Chi-square tests to compare decedent and incident circumstance characteristics by opioid toxicology screen status. Incident narratives were analyzed to obtain physical and mental health histories and circumstances related to fatal injury events. RESULTS: Of 1007 non-poisoning suicide decedents screened for opioids, 16.4% were opioid-positive. White race, age 75 and over, and widowed or unknown marital status were associated with opioid-positivity. Among opioid-positive decedents, 25% had a history of substance use disorder (SUD), 61% depression, and 19% anxiety. The majority (52%) of opioid-positive decedents died by firearm, a higher percentage than opioid-negative decedents. CONCLUSION: The opioid overdose crisis largely has not overlapped with non-poisoning suicide in this study. Overall, our analyses have not identified additional risk factors for suicide among opioid-positive suicide decedents. However, the overlap between opioid-positivity, SUD, and physical and mental health problems found among decedents in our data suggest several suicide prevention opportunities. These include medication assisted treatment for SUD which has been shown to reduce suicide, screening for opioid/benzodiazepine overlap, and limiting access to lethal means during opioid use. Improved death scene investigations for substances and use of the Prescription Drug Monitoring Program to document prescriptions are needed to further understanding of the role of substances in non-poisoning suicide.

Management of Atopic Dermatitis in Children Younger Than Two Years of Age by Community Pediatricians: A Survey and Chart Review.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize primary care providers' (PCPs) practice patterns for atopic dermatitis (AD) in children <2 years old and determine the need for AD guidelines for PCPs focused on this age group. STUDY DESIGN: This is a mixed-methods study consisting of a survey and a retrospective medical record review of PCP practices in the Chicago metropolitan area. The survey was analyzed using both quantitative and qualitative methods. RESULTS: In the survey (n = 52 respondents), PCPs reported management of AD is different in children <2 years compared with older children (88%). They were more likely to refer to a specialist (65%) and less likely to use high-potency topical corticosteroids (64%). In the chart review, PCP visits for children 2-5 years old (n = 50 914) vs those <2 years old (n = 71 913) for AD, older children had medium- and high-potency topical corticosteroids prescribed more frequently than younger children (0.66% vs 0.37%, P < .01 and .15% vs 0.05%, P < .01, respectively). In the subset of children <2 years of age who also were evaluated by a specialist (n = 109), medium- and high-potency topical corticosteroids were prescribed disproportionately at visits to providers in dermatology (57%) vs allergy (30%) vs pediatrics (15%) (P < .01). PCPs suggested that guidelines for this age group should include recommendations for preferred corticosteroids (39%), allergy management (35%), referral criteria (22%), and assessment of disease severity (11%). CONCLUSIONS: PCP management of AD in children <2 years is different from older children, with possible underuse of medium/high-potency topical corticosteroids. Clear guidelines for this age group are needed.

Physical education environment and student physical activity levels in low-income communities.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to examine the association of physical education (PE) class characteristics, such as lesson context, teacher's physical activity (PA) promotion behavior, and lesson location, with student engagement in moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) during PE lessons in elementary school (ES), middle school (MS), and high school (HS). METHODS: The study sample included 2106 PE classes from 40 schools located in low-income communities. The System for Observing Fitness Instruction Time (SOFIT) was used to assess lesson context, teacher's behavior, and student PA during PE lessons. Mixed models were used to examine the association between PE class characteristics and the probability of meeting the recommended level of MVPA during PE lessons (MVPA ≥50%), accounting for within-school random effects and school characteristics. RESULTS: Almost all PE classes (90%) with ≥60-70% of lesson time spent in motor content and ≥ 10-20% in teacher's in-class PA promotion met the recommended level of MVPA across the school levels. More specifically, among the sub-categories of motor content, more lesson time spent in fitness was significantly associated with MVPA ≥50% in all school levels. However, more lesson time spent in game play was a significant factor only in ES (OR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.4-3.0). Outdoor lessons were a significant factor in ES (OR = 5.3; 95% CI = 3.1-9.0) and MS (OR = 21.0; 95% CI = 6.3-69.4), but not HS (OR = 1.4; 95% CI = 0.6, 3.2). CONCLUSIONS: PE lessons with higher motor content and higher teacher's in-class PA promotion are more likely to meet the recommended level of MVPA in all school levels. However, the sub-categories of motor content and lesson location could impact student MVPA differently by school levels.

Investigating the Support Networks for Mothers of a High-density Public Housing Community and the Effects of Housing Closures on These Support Systems.

Over the past few decades, public housing initiatives have focused on the decentralization of poverty by replacing high-density public housing (HDPH) models with lower-density, mixed-income models. This action has resulted in the displacement of families who had lived in these developments for generations. In past studies, public housing residents have been shown to have stronger social ties than those living in other types of assisted housing. Research on the dismemberment of US public housing has demonstrated a "root shock" or disruption in the support infrastructure in these resource-limited communities. The purpose of this study was to use intergenerational analysis to analyze support systems of mothers in a low-income community and to investigate how the dismemberment of a Chicago HDPH community, Cabrini Green, affected parenting experiences and support infrastructure. Two generations of the former HDPH community were interviewed: (Gen1) mothers who raised their children in Cabrini Green and (Gen2) their daughter(s) who were raised in Cabrini Green but who now raise their children elsewhere. Interviews were analyzed for common themes in relation to mental health, social support networks, and parenting experiences. Four main components of parenting support were identified: familial support, father of child support, community support, and institutional support. Interviews suggest that the closing of Cabrini-Green high-rise buildings impacted relative contributions from specific components of mothers' support infrastructure, particularly community and institutional support. Mothers with support void in one component of support had better outcomes if they had the reserve to compensate by increasing one or more other areas of support. Programs that foster other sources of parenting support during and after public housing closures may help to improve outcomes for mothers and their families. By analyzing the experiences of mothers of both generations, we also gain insight into how experiences of motherhood and support systems compared before and after Cabrini Green's dissolution as well as insight into the participants' views on the impact of the housing closing on the parenting experience.

Nutrient content of school meals before and after implementation of nutrition recommendations in five school districts across two U.S. counties.

OBJECTIVE: To compare changes in nutrient levels of school meals before and after implementation of nutrition interventions at five school districts in two, large U.S. counties. School menu changes were compared against national school meal recommendations. METHODS: A large urban school district in Los Angeles County (LAC), California and four school districts in suburban Cook County (SCC), Illinois implemented school meal nutrition interventions. Nutrition analyses were conducted for school breakfast and lunch before and after changes were made to the meal programs. Means, % change, and net calories (kilocalories or kcal) offered as a result of the nutrition interventions were calculated. RESULTS: School districts in both counties made district-wide changes in their school breakfast and lunch menus. Menu changes resulted in a net reduction of calories, sugar, and sodium content offered in the meals. Net fewer calories offered as a result of the nutrition interventions were estimated to be about 64,075kcal per student per year for LAC and 22,887kcal per student per year for SCC. CONCLUSIONS: Nutrition interventions can have broad reach through changes in menu offerings to school-aged children and adolescents. However, further research is needed to examine how these changes affect student food selection and consumption.

Access to patient-centered medical homes in children with sickle cell disease.

To determine the proportion of children with sickle cell disease (SCD) followed in a subspecialty clinic with access to a primary care provider (PCP) exhibiting practice-level qualities of a patient-centered medical home (PCMH). We surveyed 200 parents/guardians of children with SCD using a 44-item tool addressing PCP access, caregiver attitudes toward PCPs, barriers to healthcare utilization, perceived disease severity, and satisfaction with care received in the PCP versus SCD clinic settings. Individual PCMH criteria measured were a personal provider relationship and medical care characterized as accessible, comprehensive and coordinated. Although 94 % of respondents reported a PCP for their child, there was greater variation in the proportion of PCPs who met other individual PCMH criteria. A higher proportion of PCPs met criteria for coordinated care when compared to accessible or comprehensive care. In multivariate models, transportation availability, lower ER visit frequency and greater PCP visit frequency were associated favorably with having a PCP meeting criteria for accessible and coordinated care. Child and respondent demographics and disease severity had no impact on PCMH designation. Average respondent satisfaction scores for the SCD clinic was higher, when compared to satisfaction scores for the PCP. For children with SCD, access to a PCP is not synonymous with access to a medical home. While specific factors associated with PCMH access may be identified in children with SCD, their cause and effect relationships need further study.

Working with community partners to implement and evaluate the Chicago Park District's 100% Healthier Snack Vending Initiative.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this case study was to evaluate the acceptability, sales impact, and implementation barriers for the Chicago Park District's 100% Healthier Snack Vending Initiative to strengthen and support future healthful vending efforts. COMMUNITY CONTEXT: The Chicago Park District is the largest municipal park system in the United States, serving almost 200,000 children annually through after-school and summer programs. Chicago is one of the first US cities to improve park food environments through more healthful snack vending. METHODS: A community-based participatory evaluation engaged community and academic partners, who shared in all aspects of the research. From spring 2011 to fall 2012, we collected data through observation, surveys, and interviews on staff and patron acceptance of snack vending items, purchasing behaviors, and machine operations at a sample of 10 Chicago parks. A new snack vending contract included nutrition standards for serving sizes, calories, sugar, fat, and sodium for all items. Fifteen months of snack vending sales data were collected from all 98 snack vending machines in park field houses. OUTCOMES: Staff (100%) and patrons (88%) reacted positively to the initiative. Average monthly per-machine sales increased during 15 months ($84 to $371). Vendor compliance issues included stocking noncompliant items and delayed restocking. INTERPRETATION: The initiative resulted in improved park food environments. Diverse partner engagement, participatory evaluation, and early attention to compliance can be important supports for healthful vending initiatives. Consumer acceptance and increasing revenues can help to counter fears of revenue loss that can pose barriers to adoption.

Substitution of Methods in Suicide Deaths - Firearm Injury and Hanging.

Background: Prevention strategies for suicide emphasize restrictions on firearm access. These restrictions may lose efficacy if individuals substitute other lethal suicide methods. Aims: The objective of this study is to determine the extent to which individuals who die by suicide in the United States substitute hanging for firearm injury. Methods: This study is a repeated cross-sectional analysis of suicide deaths in the United States from 2003 to 2021. Multiple regression was used to estimate the effect of firearm access proxies on individual suicide methods (hanging vs. firearm injury). Results: The probability of death by hanging was significantly and negatively associated with proxies of firearm access. Limitations: This study does not compare crude rates of suicide by state, which rise on average with rates of firearm ownership. The National Violent Death Reporting System expanded over the sample period, so early years have incomplete ascertainment. Rates of gun ownership and gun safety law scales are measured as proxies. Conclusions: Although means restriction around firearm access is a critical tool for suicide prevention, complementary strategies for prevention around hanging merit further study.

Characteristics of child abuse fatalities: Insights from a statewide violent death reporting system.

BACKGROUND: Child maltreatment fatalities are a significant public health issue. Case level characteristics of abuse-related deaths can increase our understanding of maltreatment fatalities and inform region-specific prevention initiatives. OBJECTIVE: Explore child abuse fatalities in the Illinois Violent Death Reporting System (IVDRS) for commonalities and distinctive features. METHODS, PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: A mixed methods study was conducted using IVDRS data from 2015 to 2018. All fatalities with a homicide or undetermined manner of death among decedents 10 years old or younger were included. Both discrete and narrative data were analyzed separately for victim, suspect, circumstance, and household characteristics. RESULTS: Of the 106 deaths that met inclusion criteria, 74 % of homicide deaths (64/86) and 50 % of undetermined deaths (10/20) were due to abuse. Psychosocial characteristics most often identified in abusive deaths included family relationship problems, mental illness, and history of substance abuse. Other common characteristics included use of personal weapons or blunt instruments and death due to punishment. Including narrative data rather than discrete data alone identified 148 % more deaths with three characteristics commonly found in abusive deaths: history of abuse, shaken baby syndrome, and family history of violence. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the capability of multi-source state-level data to enrich our understanding of child abuse fatalities. Employing the narrative review method in other states using the National Violent Death Reporting System may increase the identification of abuse fatalities. Improved recognition and characterization of abuse fatalities has the potential to help address systemic factors involved and enhance targeted prevention efforts. WHAT IS KNOWN: Child abuse fatalities represent a significant and preventable public health issue in the United States. Case-specific characteristics are limited in national data sets, and their absence curtails prevention opportunities. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: State-wide reporting systems of violent deaths offer rich and multisource data regarding child abuse fatalities including detailed victim, suspect, circumstance, and household characteristics. This data can be used to enhance our knowledge of maltreatment fatalities and may inform region-specific public health and prevention initiatives.

Public Mass Shootings: Counterfactual Trend Analysis of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban.

Background: Assault weapon and large-capacity magazine bans are potential tools for policy makers to prevent public mass shootings. However, the efficacy of these bans is a continual source of debate. In an earlier study, we estimated the impact of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) on the number of public mass shooting events in the United States. This study provides an updated assessment with 3 additional years of firearm surveillance data to characterize the longer-term effects. Objective: This study aims to estimate the impact of the FAWB on trends in public mass shootings from 1966 to 2022. Methods: We used linear regression to estimate the impact of the FAWB on the 4-year simple moving average of annual public mass shootings, defined by events with 4 or more deaths in 24 hours, not including the perpetrator. The study period spans 1966 to 2022. The model includes indicator variables for both the FAWB period (1995-2004) and the period after its removal (2005-2022). These indicators were interacted with a linear time trend. Estimates were controlled for the national homicide rate. After estimation, the model provided counterfactual estimates of public mass shootings if the FAWB was never imposed and if the FAWB remained in place. Results: The overall upward trajectory in the number of public mass shootings substantially fell while the FAWB was in place. These trends are specific to events in which the perpetrator used an assault weapon or large-capacity magazine. Point estimates suggest the FAWB prevented up to 5 public mass shootings while the ban was active. A continuation of the FAWB and large-capacity magazine ban would have prevented up to 38 public mass shootings, but the CIs become wider as time moves further away from the period of the FAWB. Conclusions: The FAWB, which included a ban on large-capacity magazines, was associated with fewer public mass shooting events, fatalities, and nonfatal gun injuries. Gun control legislation is an important public health tool in the prevention of public mass shootings.

Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Central Asia: Updated Epidemiological Assessment.

BACKGROUND: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in Central Asia we conducted during the first year of the pandemic by providing 2 additional years of data for the region. The historical context provided through additional data can inform regional preparedness and early responses to infectious outbreaks of either the SARS-CoV-2 virus or future pathogens in Central Asia. OBJECTIVE: First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Central Asia when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in Central Asia. METHODS: Traditional surveillance metrics, including counts and rates of COVID-19 transmissions and deaths, and enhanced surveillance indicators, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, were used to measure shifts in the pandemic. To identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 7 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were relatively small in magnitude (0.125 and 0.347, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, were both significant and negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became entirely insignificant for the first time in March 2023. CONCLUSIONS: Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in Central Asia, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for 7 months ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 appeared to be endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of a pandemic. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics suggest the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration.

South Asia's COVID-19 History and Surveillance: Updated Epidemiological Assessment.

BACKGROUND: This study updates our findings from the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance we first conducted in South Asia in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region. We assess whether COVID-19 had transitioned from pandemic to endemic at the point the World Health Organization (WHO) ended the public health emergency status for COVID-19 on May 5, 2023. OBJECTIVE: First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in South Asia around the WHO declaration. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in South Asia. METHODS: In addition to updating the traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from our original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed or transmission rate per 100,000 population was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for over a year by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive (1.168), the 7-day persistence coefficient was negative (-0.185), suggesting limited cluster effects in which cases on a given day predict cases 7 days forward. Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any overall change in the persistence measure around the time of the WHO declaration. From December of 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 was statistically insignificant across the entire pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continued to circulate in South Asia, the rate of transmission had remained below the outbreak threshold for well over a year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration. Prevention policies should be a focus ahead of future pandemics. On that point, policy should emphasize an epidemiological task force with widespread testing and a contact-tracing system.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: In this study, we built upon our initial research published in 2020 by incorporating an additional 2 years of data for Europe. We assessed whether COVID-19 had shifted from the pandemic to endemic phase in the region when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023. OBJECTIVE: We first aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Europe at the time of the WHO declaration. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we provided the historical context for the course of the pandemic in Europe in terms of policy and disease burden at the country and region levels. METHODS: In addition to the updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-tailed t test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 4 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were moderate in magnitude (0.404 and 0.547, respectively; P<.001 for both). The shift parameters for the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration were small and insignificant, suggesting little change in the clustering effect of cases on future cases at the time. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became insignificant for the first time in April 2023. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Europe, the rate of transmission remained below the threshold of an outbreak for 4 months ahead of the WHO declaration. The region had previously been in a nearly continuous state of outbreak. The more recent trend suggested that COVID-19 was endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, several countries remained in a state of outbreak, and the conclusion that COVID-19 was no longer a pandemic in Europe at the time is unclear.