Gastric cancer detection rates using GI endoscopy with serologic risk stratification: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Efforts have been made to develop an endoscopic screening system incorporating serologic gastric cancer (GC) risk stratification (ABC classification) alongside annual population-based GC screening using barium. We conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to compare GC detection rates between the Ba-Endo group, which underwent annual barium tests for primary screening followed by detailed endoscopic examinations, and the ABC-Endo group, where endoscopy intervals were determined based on individual gastric cancer risk in the ABC classification. METHODS: In total, 1206 individuals from Yurihonjo and Nikaho City, Akita Prefecture, were randomized through the minimization method using sex and age as allocation factors. The intervention study was conducted for both groups over 5 years. The Ba-Endo group received annual barium tests, and the ABC-Endo group underwent EGD at different intervals: group A, EGD only at entry; group B, EGD once every 3 years; group C, EGD once every 2 years; and group D, EGD every year. RESULTS: There were 24 detected GC lesions, with a GC detection rate of 1.9%. GC detection rates in the Ba-Endo and ABC-Endo groups were 2.0% and 1.8%, respectively, with no significant differences between groups (P = 1.0). However, the rate of GC cured by endoscopic resection alone was 41.6% in the Ba-Endo group and was significantly higher at 90.9% in the ABC-Endo group (P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: There were no differences between the Ba-Endo and ABC-Endo groups in GC detection rates. However, the rate of detected GCs that could be cured by endoscopic resection alone was significantly higher in the ABC-Endo group. (Clinical trial registration number: UMIN000005962.).

Estimation of the causal effects of time-varying treatments in nested case-control studies using marginal structural Cox models.

When estimating the causal effects of time-varying treatments on survival in nested case-control (NCC) studies, marginal structural Cox models (Cox-MSMs) with inverse probability weights (IPWs) are a natural approach. However, calculating IPWs from the cases and controls is difficult because they are not random samples from the full cohort, and the number of subjects may be insufficient for calculation. To overcome these difficulties, we propose a method for calculating IPWs to fit Cox-MSMs to NCC sampling data. We estimate the IPWs using a pseudo-likelihood estimation method with an inverse probability of sampling weight using NCC samples, and additional samples of subjects who experience treatment changes and subjects whose follow-up is censored are required to calculate the weights. Our method only requires covariate histories for the samples. The confidence intervals are calculated from the robust variance estimator for the NCC sampling data. We also derive the asymptotic properties of the estimator of Cox-MSM under NCC sampling. The proposed methods will allow researchers to apply several case-control matching methods to improve statistical efficiency. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed method. We also applied our method to a motivating pharmacoepidemiological study examining the effect of statins on the incidence of coronary heart disease. The proposed method may be useful for estimating the causal effects of time-varying treatments in NCC studies.

Plasma ANGPTL8 Levels and Risk for Secondary Cardiovascular Events in Japanese Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease Receiving Statin Therapy.

BACKGROUND: The ability to predict secondary cardiovascular events could improve health of patients undergoing statin treatment. Circulating ANGPTL8 (angiopoietin-like protein 8) levels, which positively correlate with proatherosclerotic lipid profiles, activate the pivotal proatherosclerotic factor ANGPTL3. Here, we assessed potential association between circulating ANGPTL8 levels and risk of secondary cardiovascular events in statin-treated patients. METHODS: We conducted a biomarker study with a case-cohort design, using samples from a 2018 randomized control trial known as randomized evaluation of high-dose (4 mg/day) or low-dose (1 mg/day) lipid-lowering therapy with pitavastatin in coronary artery disease (REAL-CAD [Randomized Evaluation of Aggressive or Moderate Lipid-Lowering Therapy With Pitavastatin in Coronary Artery Disease])." From that study's full analysis set (n=12 413), we selected 2250 patients with stable coronary artery disease (582 with the primary outcome, 1745 randomly chosen, and 77 overlapping subjects). A composite end point including cardiovascular-related death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal ischemic stroke, or unstable angina requiring emergent admission was set as a primary end point. Circulating ANGPTL8 levels were measured at baseline and 6 months after randomization. RESULTS: Over a 6-month period, ANGPTL8 level changes significantly decreased in the high-dose pitavastatin group, which showed 19% risk reduction of secondary cardiovascular events compared with the low-dose group in the REAL-CAD [Randomized Evaluation of Aggressive or Moderate Lipid-Lowering Therapy With Pitavastatin in Coronary Artery Disease] study. In the highest quartiles, relative increases in ANGPTL8 levels were significantly associated with increased risk for secondary cardiovascular events, after adjustment for several cardiovascular disease risk factors and pitavastatin treatment (hazard ratio in Q4, 1.67 [95% CI, 1.17-2.39). Subgroup analyses showed relatively strong relationships between relative ANGPTL8 increases and secondary cardiovascular events in the high-dose pitavastatin group (hazard ratio in Q4, 2.07 [95% CI, 1.21-3.55]) and in the low ANGPTL8 group at baseline (166

Randomized controlled trial comparing the costs of gastric cancer screening systems between serological risk-based upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and the existing barium photofluorography: gastric cancer screening labeled by serum examination in place of aged gastric cancer organized screening systems (GALAPAGOS study).

BACKGROUND: Although the risk of gastric cancer can be stratified according to Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) IgG antibody titer and pepsinogen levels (ABC classification), a population-based gastric cancer screening system combining serological tests and endoscopy has not been introduced. This study aimed to compare the total testing cost per participant between the ABC classification method and the existing protocol. METHODS: Using the minimization method with sex and age as allocation factors, 1206 participants were randomly assigned to the following two methods for a 5-year intervention: barium photofluorography as primary examination followed by detailed examination with upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (Ba-Endo) and risk-based upper gastrointestinal endoscopy by ABC classification (ABC-Endo). The primary endpoint was the total testing cost per participant over a 5-year period. The secondary endpoint was the expense required to detect one gastric cancer. RESULTS: The total testing cost per participant was 39,711 yen in Ba-Endo (604 participants) and 45,227 yen in ABC-Endo (602 participants), with the latter being significantly higher (p < 0.001). During the intervention period, gastric cancer was found in 11 and eight participants in Ba-Endo and ABC-Endo, respectively. The expenses required to detect one gastric cancer were 2,240,931 yen in Ba-Endo and 3,486,662 yen in ABC-Endo. CONCLUSIONS: The testing cost per participant turned out to be higher in the ABC-Endo group than in the Ba-Endo group. This superiority trial, based on the hypothesis that the cost of testing is lower for ABC-Endo than for Ba-Endo, was rejected.

Simultaneous relaxometry and morphometry of human brain structures with 3D magnetic resonance fingerprinting: a multicenter, multiplatform, multifield-strength study.

Relaxation times and morphological information are fundamental magnetic resonance imaging-derived metrics of the human brain that reflect the status of the underlying tissue. Magnetic resonance fingerprinting (MRF) enables simultaneous acquisition of T1 and T2 maps inherently aligned to the anatomy, allowing whole-brain relaxometry and morphometry in a single scan. In this study, we revealed the feasibility of 3D MRF for simultaneous brain structure-wise morphometry and relaxometry. Comprehensive test-retest scan analyses using five 1.5-T and three 3.0-T systems from a single vendor including different scanner types across 3 institutions demonstrated that 3D MRF-derived morphological information and relaxation times are highly repeatable at both 1.5 T and 3.0 T. Regional cortical thickness and subcortical volume values showed high agreement and low bias across different field strengths. The ability to acquire a set of regional T1, T2, thickness, and volume measurements of neuroanatomical structures with high repeatability and reproducibility facilitates the ability of longitudinal multicenter imaging studies to quantitatively monitor changes associated with underlying pathologies, disease progression, and treatments.

Association of longitudinal pet ownership with wheezing in 3-year-old children using the distributed lag model: the Japan Environment and Children's Study.

BACKGROUND: Time-varying exposures like pet ownership pose challenges for identifying critical windows due to multicollinearity when modeled simultaneously. The Distributed Lag Model (DLM) estimates critical windows for time-varying exposures, which are mainly continuous variables. However, applying complex functions such as high-order splines and nonlinear functions within DLMs may not be suitable for situations with limited time points or binary exposure, such as in questionnaire surveys. OBJECTIVES: (1) We examined the estimation performance of a simple DLM with fractional polynomial function for time-varying binary exposures through simulation experiments. (2) We evaluated the impact of pet ownership on childhood wheezing onset and estimate critical windows. METHODS: (1) We compared logistic regression including time-varying exposure in separate models, in one model simultaneously, and using DLM. For evaluation, we employed bias, empirical standard error (EmpSE), and mean squared error (MSE). (2) The Japan Environment and Children's Study (JECS) is a prospective birth cohort study of approximately 100,000 parent-child pairs, registered across Japan from 2011 to 2014. We applied DLM to the JECS data up to age 3. The estimated odds ratios (OR) were considered to be within critical windows when they were significant at the 5% level. RESULTS: (1) DLM and the separate model exhibited lower bias compared to the simultaneously model. Additionally, both DLM and the simultaneously model demonstrated lower EmpSEs than the separate model. In all scenarios, DLM had lower MSEs than the other methods. Specifically, where critical windows is clearly present and exposure correlation is high, DLM showed MSEs about 1/2 to 1/200 of those of other models. (2) Application of DLM to the JECS data showed that, unlike other models, a significant exposure effect was observed only between the ages of 0 and 6 months. During that periods, the highest ORs were 1.07 (95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.14) , observed between the ages of 2 and 5 months. CONCLUSIONS: (1) A simple DLM improves the accuracy of exposure effect and critical windows estimation. (2) 0-6 months may be the critical windows for the effect of pet ownership on the wheezing onset at 3 years.

Comparison of the Effectiveness of Vedolizumab and Ustekinumab in Crohn's Disease Patients Who Failed Anti-tumor Necrosis Factor-α Treatment in Japan: An Observational Study Utilizing Claims Database.

This study aimed to investigate whether the approved sequence of vedolizumab and ustekinumab impacts the results of previous observational studies conducted in the European Union (EU), comparing the effectiveness of these drugs in Crohn's disease (CD) patients who failed anti-tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα) treatment. We conducted this study in Japan, where the approved sequence of drugs is different from that of the EU. We extracted 256 patients diagnosed with CD, who had a history of anti-TNFα treatment and were prescribed either vedolizumab or ustekinumab, from JMDC claims database. The patients' backgrounds were adjusted by inverse probability of treatment weighting using propensity score. The primary outcome was treatment persistence. Secondary outcomes were a steroid-free period, time to hospitalization, and time to CD-related surgery. The hazard ratios (HR) for survival times were estimated using the Cox proportional hazard model. The treatment persistence (primary endpoint) was significantly longer for ustekinumab than vedolizumab (HR, 0.32; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.15-0.72). The results of the secondary endpoints were as follows: steroid-free period (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.10-1.48), time to hospitalization (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.60-1.91), or time to CD-related surgery (HR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.11-0.97). There were no outcomes indicating the superiority of vedolizumab. Our findings suggest that ustekinumab is a more effective treatment option than vedolizumab for CD patients who failed to anti-TNFα treatment, and this finding remains consistent across both Japan and the EU.

Liver Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma With Tumor Thrombus in the Inferior Vena Cava or Right Atrium: A Large-scale Multicenter Survey Conducted in Japan.

OBJECTIVE: To clarify the short and long-term postoperative outcomes and surgical indications for patients accompanied by hepatocellular carcinoma with tumor thrombus (TT) in the inferior vena cava (IVC) or right atrium (RA). BACKGROUND: These patients are known to have an extremely poor prognosis; however, the postoperative outcomes have not been fully verified because of the rarity of this disease. METHODS: We contacted 211 specialized centers in Japan and collected data on liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma with TT in the IVC or RA from centers with experience performing surgery for such patients. The patient characteristics, operative procedures, and surgical outcomes were then analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 119 patients from 23 institutions were enrolled; 49 patients had TT in the IVC below the diaphragm (type I), 42 had TT in the IVC above the diaphragm (type II), and 28 had TT entering the RA (type III). The severity and frequency of postoperative complications did not differ among the 3 groups. There was one surgery-related death in the type III group. The median survival times were 2.47 years in the type I group, 1.77 years in the type II group, and 1.02 years in the type III group. Multivariate analysis identified an indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes >15% and ≥3 tumors as prognostic factors affecting survival, whereas the use of cardiopulmonary bypass and ≥3 tumors were risk factors for recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: As the postoperative prognosis of patients with type I or type II disease and of patients with no risk factors is relatively good, surgery should be considered for these patient populations.

Reevaluation of Makuuchi's criteria for resecting hepatocellular carcinoma: A Japanese nationwide survey.

AIM: Although Makuuchi's criteria are widely used to determine the cut-off for safe liver resection, there have been few reports of concrete data supporting their validity. Here, we verified the utility of Makuuchi's criteria by comparing the operative mortality rates associated with liver resection between hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients meeting or exceeding the criteria. METHODS: A database was built using data from 15 597 patients treated between 2000 and 2007 for whom values for all three variables included in Makuuchi's criteria for liver resection (clinical ascites, serum bilirubin, and indocyanine green clearance) were available. The patients were divided into those fulfilling (n = 12 175) or exceeding (n = 3422) the criteria. The postoperative mortality (death for any reason within 30 days) and long-term survival were compared between the two groups. RESULTS: The operative mortality rate was significantly lower in patients meeting the criteria than in those exceeding the criteria (1.07% vs. 2.01%, respectively; p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, exceeded the criteria was significantly associated with the risk for operative mortality (relative risk 2.08; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.23-3.52; p = 0.007). Surgical indication meeting or exceeding the criteria was an independent factor for overall survival (hazard ratio 1.27; 95% CI, 1.18-1.36; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Makuuchi's criteria are suitable for determining the indication for resection of HCC due to the reduction in risk of operative mortality.

Report of the 23rd nationwide follow-up survey of primary liver cancer in Japan (2014-2015).

For the 23rd Nationwide Follow-up Survey of Primary Liver Cancer in Japan, data from 20 889 newly registered patients and 42 274 previously registered follow-up patients were compiled from 516 institutions over a 2-year period from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2015. Basic statistics compiled for patients newly registered in the 23rd survey were cause of death, past medical history, clinical diagnosis, imaging diagnosis, treatment-related factors, pathological diagnosis, recurrence status, and autopsy findings. Compared with the previous 22nd survey, the population of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was older at the time of clinical diagnosis, had more female patients, had more patients with non-B non-C HCC, had smaller tumor diameter, and was more frequently treated with hepatectomy. Cumulative survival rates were calculated for HCC, intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, and combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma (combined HCC and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma) by treatment type and background characteristics for patients newly registered between 2004 and 2015 whose final outcome was survival or death. The median overall survival and cumulative survival rates for HCC were calculated by dividing patients by combinations of background factors (number of tumors, tumor diameter, Child-Pugh grade, or albumin-bilirubin grade) and by treatment type (hepatectomy, radiofrequency ablation therapy, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization, hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy, and systemic therapy). The same values were also calculated according to registration date by dividing patients newly registered between 1978 and 2015 into five time period groups. The data obtained from this nationwide follow-up survey are expected to contribute to advancing clinical research and treatment of primary liver cancer in the world.

Clinical Practice Guidelines for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: The Japan Society of Hepatology 2021 version (5th JSH-HCC Guidelines).

The fifth version of the Clinical Practice Guidelines for Hepatocellular Carcinoma was revised by the Japan Society of Hepatology, according to the methodology of evidence-based medicine and partly to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation system, which was published in October 2021 in Japanese. In addition to surveillance-diagnostic and treatment algorithms, a new algorithm for systemic therapy has been created, as multiple drugs for hepatocellular carcinoma can be currently selected. Here, new or revised algorithms and evidence on which the recommendations are based are described.

Impacts of the preceding cancer-specific health-related quality of life instruments on the responses to the subsequent EQ-5D-5L.

BACKGROUND: In clinical studies, the EQ-5D-5L is often employed with disease-specific health-related quality of life instruments. The questions in the former are more general than the latter; however, it is known that responses to general questions can be influenced by preceding specific questions. Thus, the responses to the EQ-5D-5L have the possibility of being influenced by the preceding disease-specific health-related quality of life instruments. This may lead to bias in the cost-effectiveness analysis results. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the impact of the preceding cancer-specific health-related quality of life instruments on the EQ-5D-5L responses. METHODS: We prepared questionnaire booklets containing the EQ-5D-5L, the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30, and the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy General with different orders. Using a quasi-randomized design, they were distributed to the patients undergoing drug therapy for advanced cancer, who were classified into three groups: Groups 1, 2, and 3 (the EQ-5D-5L placed first, second, and last, respectively). We compared the EQ-5D-5L index and the missingness of EQ-5D-5L among the groups. RESULTS: The mean EQ-5D-5L index was 0.796, 0.760, and 0.789 for groups 1 (n = 300), 2 (n = 306), and 3 (n = 331), respectively. The difference between Groups 2 and 1 was - 0.036 (95% CI - 0.065 to - 0.007; p = 0.015). The proportion of patients with an incomplete EQ-5D-5L was 0.11, 0.11, and 0.05 for Groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The difference of the proportions between group 3 and 1 and between 3 and 2 was - 0.06 (95% CI - 0.10 to - 0.02; p = 0.003) and - 0.06 (95% CI - 0.10 to - 0.02; p = 0.003), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although the EQ-5D-5L index differed according to the instrument orders, the difference size would not be considerably larger than the minimally important difference. The patients tended to complete the EQ-5D-5L when they were placed at the end of the questionnaire.

The utility of the self-controlled study design for pharmacoepidemiological studies without an active comparator medication using a medical information database: An application to assess the risk of varenicline on cardiovascular outcomes.

PURPOSE: To illustrate the utility of the self-controlled study design for studies without an active comparator, we compared the results of a cohort design study with a non-user comparator with those of a self-controlled design study in evaluating the risk of varenicline on cardiovascular outcomes, using a Japanese medical claims database. METHODS: The participating smokers were identified from health-screening results collected between May 2008 and April 2017. Using a non-user-comparator cohort study design, we estimated the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of varenicline on initial hospitalization with cardiovascular outcomes using Cox's model adjusted for patients' sex, age, medical history, medication history, and health-screening results. Using a self-controlled study design, the within-subject HR was estimated using a stratified Cox's model adjusted for medical history, medication history, and health-screening results. The estimate from a recent meta-analysis was considered the gold standard (risk ratio: 1.03). RESULTS: We identified 460 464 smokers (398 694 males [86.6%]; mean (standard deviation) age: 42.9 [10.8] years) in the database. Of these, 11 561 had been dispensed varenicline at least once, and 4511 had experienced cardiovascular outcomes. The estimate of the non-user-comparator cohort study design exceeded the gold standard (HR [95% CI]: 2.04 [1.22-3.42]), whereas that of the self-controlled study design was close to the gold standard (within-subject HR [95% CI]: 1.12 [0.27-4.70]). CONCLUSIONS: The self-controlled study design is useful alternative to a non-user-comparator cohort design when evaluating the risk of medications relative to their non-use, based on a medical information database.

Predictors of long-term mortality among perioperative survivors of Fontan operation.

AIMS: The criteria for 'good' Fontan haemodynamics have been poorly defined in relation to long-term outcomes. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors for mortality among haemodynamic parameters obtained early after the Fontan operation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Clinical data of all perioperative survivors of the Fontan operation performed before 2011, from nine institutions, were collected through a retrospective chart review. In total, 1260 patients were included. The median age at the time of Fontan operation was 3.6 years. Post-operative cardiac catheterization was conducted in 1117 patients at a median period of 1.0 years after the operation. During the median follow-up period of 10.2 years, 107 patients died. The mortality rates at 10, 20, and 25 years after the operation were 5%, 12%, and 22%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, older age at the time of the operation {≥15 years, hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 3.2 (1.7-5.9)} and haemodynamic parameters obtained at post-operative catheterization, such as low ejection fraction [<30%, HR (95% CI): 7.5 (3.2-18)], low systemic oxygen saturation [<80%, HR (95% CI): 3.8 (1.6-9.1)], high central venous pressure [≥16 mmHg, HR (95% CI): 2.3 (1.3-3.9)], and low mean systemic arterial pressure [<60 mmHg, HR (95% CI): 3.0 (1.4-6.2)] were identified as independent predictors of mortality. The predictive model based on these parameters had a c-index of 0.75 at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Haemodynamic parameters obtained at a median period of 1.0 years, post-operatively, can accurately identify patients with a high mortality risk, who may need intensive management to improve long-term outcomes.

Distribution of the follicular and luteal phase lengths and their age-dependent changes in Japanese women: A large population study.

Purpose: The current definition of menstrual cycle length in a Japanese woman is different from those of WHO definition, and the original data are outdated. We aimed to calculate the distribution of follicular and luteal phases length in modern Japanese women with various menstrual cycles. Methods: This study determined the lengths of the follicular and luteal phases of Japanese women using basal body temperature data collected via a smartphone application from 2015 to 2019, and the data were analyzed using the Sensiplan method. Over 9 million temperature readings from more than 80 000 participants were analyzed. Results: The mean duration of the low-temperature (follicular) phase averaged 17.1 days and was shorter among participants aged 40-49 years. The mean duration of the high-temperature (luteal) phase was 11.8 days. The variance and maximum-minimum difference of the length of the low temperature period were significant in women under 35 years old than women aged more than 35 years. Conclusions: The shortening of the follicular phase in women aged 40-49 years implied a relationship with the rapid decline of ovarian reserve in these women, and the age 35 years old was turning point of ovulatory function.

Recurrence-free survival versus overall survival as a primary endpoint for studies of resected colorectal liver metastasis: a retrospective study and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Recurrence-free survival has been used as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in trials involving patients with resected colorectal liver metastases. We aimed to assess the correlation between recurrence-free survival and overall survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases to determine the adequacy of this surrogate endpoint. METHODS: In this retrospective study and meta-analysis, we compiled an institutional cohort of consecutive patients who had complete resection of colorectal liver metastases from the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (New York, NY, USA) prospective database. Patients were eligible for inclusion if they were aged 18 years or older, and underwent hepatectomy, with or without operative ablation, between Jan 1, 1991, and April 30, 2019. We estimated overall survival and recurrence-free survival probabilities at various timepoints using the Kaplan-Meier method, and we assessed pairwise associations between these endpoints using Spearman's rank correlation. We also did a meta-analysis of adjuvant phase 3 clinical trials for colorectal liver metastases to assess the correlation between hazard ratios (HRs) for recurrence-free survival and overall survival. We searched MEDLINE for articles of phase 3 randomised controlled trials analysing adjuvant treatment strategies for resected colorectal metastases from database inception to Jan 1, 2022. The titles and abstracts of identified studies were screened before full-text screening and summary data were either recalculated or extracted manually from the published Kaplan-Meier curves (depending on data availability). FINDINGS: Data were available for 3299 patients in the institutional database, of whom 2983 were eligible for inclusion in our cohort. Median follow-up was 8·4 years (95% CI 7·9-9·1) , during which time there were 1995 (67%) disease recurrences and 1684 (56%) deaths. Median recurrence-free survival was 1·3 years (95% CI 1·3-1·4) and median overall survival was 5·2 years (95% CI 5·0-5·5). 1428 (85%) of 1684 deaths were preceded by recurrence, and median time from recurrence to death was 2·0 years (IQR 1·0-3·4). Pairwise correlations between recurrence-free survival and overall survival were low to moderate, with a correlation estimate ranging from 0·30 (SD 0·17) to 0·56 (0·13). In the meta-analysis of adjuvant clinical trials, the Spearman's correlation coefficient between recurrence-free survival HR and overall survival HR was r=0·20 (p=0·71). INTERPRETATION: We found a minimal correlation between recurrence-free survival and overall survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases. Recurrence-free survival is an inadequate surrogate endpoint for overall survival in this disease setting. FUNDING: US National Cancer Institute.

Report of the 22nd nationwide follow-up Survey of Primary Liver Cancer in Japan (2012-2013).

In the 22nd Nationwide Follow-up Survey of Primary Liver Cancer in Japan, data from 21 155 newly registered patients and 43 041 previously registered follow-up patients were compiled from 538 institutions over a 2-year period from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2013. Basic statistics compiled for patients newly registered in the 22nd survey were cause of death, past medical history, clinical diagnosis, imaging diagnosis, treatment-related factors, pathologic diagnosis, recurrence status and autopsy findings. Compared with the previous 21st survey, the population of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was older at the time of clinical diagnosis, had more female patients, more patients with non-B non-C HCC, smaller tumor diameter and was more frequently treated with hepatectomy. Cumulative survival rates were calculated for HCC, intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, and combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma (combined HCC and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma) by treatment type and background characteristics for patients newly registered between 2002 and 2013 whose final outcome was survival or death. Median overall survival and cumulative survival rates for HCC were calculated by dividing patients by combinations of background factors (number of tumors, tumor diameter or Child-Pugh grade) and by treatment type (hepatectomy, radiofrequency ablation therapy, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization, hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy and systemic therapy). The same values were also calculated according to registration date by dividing patients newly registered between 1978 and 2013 into five time period groups. The data obtained from this nationwide follow-up survey are expected to contribute to advancing clinical research and treatment of primary liver cancer worldwide.

Early specialized palliative care for patients with metastatic lung cancer receiving chemotherapy: a feasibility study of a nurse-led screening-triggered programme.

BACKGROUND: Strategies to implement early specialized palliative care have not yet been established. The present study investigated the feasibility of a nurse-led, screening-triggered early specialized palliative care intervention programme and obtained data to design a randomized controlled trial. METHODS: Patients with metastatic lung cancer undergoing first-line platinum-based chemotherapy were eligible. The intervention consisted of (1) a questionnaire-based screening programme and (2) advanced-level nurse counselling and care coordination with interdisciplinary team approach. The primary endpoint was the completion rate of the assessment questionnaire after the second course of first-line chemotherapy (T2). Secondary endpoints included changes in Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Lung scores, depression and anxiety rates based on the Patient Health Questionnaire 9 and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and the contents of specialized palliative care. RESULTS: A total of 50 patients were enrolled between August 2012 and March 2014. Median age was 66 years (range, 40-78 year) and 84% were male. A total of 38 patients had stage IV non-small cell lung carcinoma and 12 had extensive disease small-cell lung carcinoma. The completion rate was 70% (95% confidence interval 56.0-81.0). The median duration between baseline and T2 was 53 days. Improvement from baseline were observed at T2 in Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Lung scores (86.0 ± 18.1 vs 94.9 ± 18.2, P = 0.057), depression (16.0 vs 5.7%; P = 0.26) and anxiety (32.0 vs 22.9%; P = 0.65); however, these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: This early specialized palliative care intervention is feasible and could be useful in improving patients' quality of life. The present results justify the initiation of a randomized control trial.

The preventive effect of internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy for prevention of depression during pregnancy and in the postpartum period (iPDP): a large scale randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of perinatal depression beginning from the antenatal period is essential. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of recently developed internet-delivered cognitive behavioral therapy (iCBT) for preventing the onset of a major depressive episode (MDE) in the third trimester and at 3 months postpartum. METHODS: This is a two-arm, parallel-group, general-information controlled, randomized controlled trial. Participants were 5017 pregnant women at 16-20 weeks' gestation without MDE at baseline. They were randomly assigned to an iCBT (intervention; n = 2509) or general-information (control; n = 2508) group, stratified by psychological distress at baseline. The primary outcomes were the numbers of new MDE onsets, measured using the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0, at 32 weeks' gestation and at 3 months postpartum. RESULTS: New MDE onset was reported by 59 participants (2.35%) in the intervention group and 73 (2.91%) in the control group during follow-up. Compared with the control group, the hazard ratio (HR) of MDE in the intervention group was 0.85 (95% CI 0.61-1.20), which was not significantly different. Among participants who scored between 5 and 8 on K6 at baseline, 10 (1.37%) in the intervention group reported new onset of MDE, compared with 28 (3.81%) in the control group, and the HR of MDE was 0.38 (95%CI 0.19-0.79). CONCLUSIONS: No intervention effect was found for iCBT in preventing new onset of perinatal MDE. iCBT might prevent perinatal depression only among pregnant women with subthreshold depressive symptoms. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UMIN000038190.

Bayesian adaptive randomization design incorporating propensity score-matched historical controls.

Incorporating historical control data to augment the control arm in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is one way of increasing their efficiency and feasibility when adequate RCTs cannot be conducted. In recent work, a Bayesian adaptive randomization design incorporating historical control data has been proposed to reduce sample size according to the amount of information that could be borrowed, assessed at interim assessment in respect to prior-data conflict. However, the approach does not distinguish between the two sources of prior-data conflict: (1) imbalance in measured covariates, and (2) imbalance in unmeasured covariates. In this paper, we propose an extension of the Bayesian adaptive randomization design to incorporate propensity score-matched historical controls. At interim assessment, historical controls similar to the concurrent controls in terms of measured covariates are selected using propensity score matching. Then, final sample size of the control arm is adjusted according to the extent of borrowing from the matched historical controls quantified by effective historical sample size. The conditional power prior approach and commensurate prior approach are adopted for designing the prior, and addressing prior-data conflict due to unmeasured covariate imbalance. Simulation results show that the proposed method yields reduced bias in treatment effect estimates, type I error at the nominal level, and reduced sample size while maintaining statistical power. Even when residual imbalance exists due to unmeasured covariates, the proposed method borrowed more information without risking substantially inflated type I error and bias, providing meaningful implications for use of historical controls to facilitate the conduct of adequate RCTs.