Predicting mortality and re-hospitalization for heart failure: a machine-learning and cluster analysis on frailty and comorbidity.

BACKGROUND: Machine-learning techniques have been recently utilized to predict the probability of unfavorable outcomes among elderly patients suffering from heart failure (HF); yet none has integrated an assessment for frailty and comorbidity. This research seeks to determine which machine-learning-based phenogroups that incorporate frailty and comorbidity are most strongly correlated with death or readmission at hospital for HF within six months following discharge from hospital. METHODS: In this single-center, prospective study of a tertiary care center, we included all patients aged 65 and older discharged for acute decompensated heart failure. Random forest analysis and a Cox multivariable regression were performed to determine the predictors of the composite endpoint. By k-means and hierarchical clustering, those predictors were utilized to phenomapping the cohort in four different clusters. RESULTS: A total of 571 patients were included in the study. Cluster analysis identified four different clusters according to frailty, burden of comorbidities and BNP. As compared with Cluster 4, we found an increased 6-month risk of poor outcomes patients in Cluster 1 (very frail and comorbid; HR 3.53 [95% CI 2.30-5.39]), Cluster 2 (pre-frail with low levels of BNP; HR 2.59 [95% CI 1.66-4.07], and in Cluster 3 (pre-frail and comorbid with high levels of BNP; HR 3.75 [95% CI 2.25-6.27])). CONCLUSIONS: In older patients discharged for ADHF, the cluster analysis identified four distinct phenotypes according to frailty degree, comorbidity, and BNP levels. Further studies are warranted to validate these phenogroups and to guide an appropriate selection of personalized, model of care.

Advancing healthcare through thoracic ultrasound research in older patients.

This paper reports the proceedings of a meeting convened by the Research Group on Thoracic Ultrasound in Older People of the Italian Society of Gerontology and Geriatrics, to discuss the current state-of-the-art of clinical research in the field of geriatric thoracic ultrasound and identify unmet research needs and potential areas of development. In the last decade, point-of-care thoracic ultrasound has entered clinical practice for diagnosis and management of several respiratory illnesses, such as bacterial and viral pneumonia, pleural effusion, acute heart failure, and pneumothorax, especially in the emergency-urgency setting. Very few studies, however, have been specifically focused on older patients with frailty and multi-morbidity, who frequently exhibit complex clinical pictures needing multidimensional evaluation. At the present state of knowledge, there is still uncertainty on the best requirements of ultrasound equipment, methodology of examination, and reporting needed to optimize the advantages of thoracic ultrasound implementation in the care of geriatric patients. Other issues regard differential diagnosis between bacterial and aspiration pneumonia, objective grading of interstitial syndrome severity, quantification and monitoring of pleural effusions and solid pleural lesions, significance of ultrasonographic assessment of post-COVID-19 sequelae, and prognostic value of assessment of diaphragmatic thickness and motility. Finally, application of remote ultrasound diagnostics in the community and nursing home setting is still poorly investigated by the current literature. Overall, the presence of several open questions on geriatric applications of thoracic ultrasound represents a strong call to implement clinical research in this field.

Usefulness of the SARC-F questionnaire and the measurement of the hand grip strength in predicting short-term mortality in older patients hospitalized for acute heart failure.

PURPOSE: Sarcopenia is a potentially reversible syndrome that increases the risk of cardiogenic cachexia and adverse outcomes in older patients with heart failure (HF). Despite its clinical significance, sarcopenia remains underdiagnosed due to the complexities of comprehensive assessment in patients with acute HF. This study aimed to evaluate whether the SARC-F questionnaire, its inviduals components, and the handgrip strength test (HGS) can predict short-term prognostic risk in very old patients recently discharged after acute HF. METHODS: We consecutively enrolled patients aged 75 years or older hospitalized with acute HF in the Geriatrics Unit of a tertiary care hospital. All patients underwent physical examination, complete blood tests, point-of-care ultrasound, and a comprehensive geriatric assessment, including physical performance through SARC-F and HGS. The thirty-day post-discharge mortality rate was assessed by phone interview. RESULTS: Out of 184 patients hospitalized with acute HF who were enrolled in the study (mean [SD], 86.8 [5.9] years, 60.3% female), 47 died within 30 days after discharge. By multivariate logistic analysis, HGS (ß = - 0.73 ± 0.03, p = 0.008) and SARC-F [adjusted OR = 1.18 (CI 95% 1.03-1.33), p = 0.003] resulted independently associated with mortality. Furthermore, two SARC-F sub-items, namely, limitation in rising from a chair and history of falls [aOR: 3.26 (CI95% 1.27-8.34), p = 0.008; aOR: 3.30 (CI 95% 1.28-8.49), p = 0.01; respectively] emerged as determinants of 30-days mortality. CONCLUSION: SARC-F and HGS test independently predict 30-day post-discharge mortality in oldest-old patients hospitalized for acute HF.

Discontinuation of Loop Diuretics in Older Patients with Chronic Stable Heart Failure: A Narrative Review.

Loop diuretics (LDs) represent the cornerstone treatment for relieving pulmonary congestion in patients with heart failure (HF). Their benefit is well-recognized in the short term because of their ability to eliminate fluid retention. However, long term, they could adversely influence prognosis due to activation of the neurohumoral mechanism, particularly in older, frail patients. Moreover, the advent of new drugs capable of improving outcomes and reducing pulmonary and systemic congestion signs in HF emphasizes the possibility of a progressive reduction and discontinuation of LD treatment. Nevertheless, few studies were aimed at investigating the safety of LDs withdrawal in older patients with chronic stable HF. This current review aims to approach current evidence regarding the safety and effectiveness of LDs discontinuation in patients with chronic stable HF, and is based on the material obtained via the PubMed and Scopus databases from January 2000 to November 2022. Our search yielded five relevant studies, including two randomized controlled trials. All participants presented stable HF at the time of study enrolment. Apart from one study, all the investigations were conducted in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction. The most common outcomes examined were the need for diuretic resumption or the event of death and rehospitalization after diuretic withdrawal. As a whole, although based on a few investigations with a low grade of evidence, diuretic therapy discontinuation might be a safe strategy that deserves consideration for patients with stable HF. However, extensive investigations in older adults, accounting for frailty status, are warranted to confirm these data in this peculiar class of patients.

Determinants of 1-Year Adverse Event Requiring Re-Hospitalization in COVID-19 Oldest Old Survivors.

The incidence of "Long COVID" syndrome appears to be increasing, particularly in the geriatric population. At present, there are few data regarding the relationship between long COVID and the risk of re-hospitalization in the oldest old survivors. Patients older than 80 years consecutively hospitalized for COVID-19 in our tertiary care hospital were enrolled and followed after discharge in a 12-month ambulatory program. A comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA), including functional capabilities and physical and cognitive performances, was performed at 6-month follow-up. Frailty degree was assessed using a 30-item frailty index. The re-hospitalization rate was assessed at 12-month follow-up through a computerized archive and phone interviews. Out of 100 patients discharged after hospitalization for COVID-19 (mean [SD] age 85 [4.0] years), 24 reported serious adverse events requiring re-hospitalization within 12 months. The most frequent causes of re-hospitalization were acute heart failure (HF), pneumonia and bone fracture (15.3% each). By multivariate logistic analysis, after adjustment for potential confounders, history of chronic HF [aOR: 3.00 (CI 95%: 1.10-8.16), p = 0.031] or chronic renal failure [aOR: 3.83 (CI 95%: 1.09-13.43), p = 0.036], the burden of comorbidity [(CIRSc) aOR: 1.95 (CI 95%: 1.28-2.97), p = 0.002] and frailty [aOR: 7.77 (CI 95%: 2.13-28.27), p = 0.002] resulted as independent predictors of re-hospitalization. One-fourth of the oldest old patients previously hospitalized for COVID-19 suffered from adverse events requiring re-hospitalization, two-thirds of them within three months after discharge. Frailty, the burden of comorbidity, history of chronic HF or chronic renal failure, but not COVID-19 disease severity, independently predicted re-hospitalization.

Predicting In-Hospital Acute Heart Failure Worsening in the Oldest Old: Insights from Point-of-Care Ultrasound.

The decompensation trajectory check is a basic step to assess the clinical course and to plan future therapy in hospitalized patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). Due to the atypical presentation and clinical complexity, trajectory checks can be challenging in older patients with acute HF. Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) has proved to be helpful in the clinical decision-making of patients with dyspnea; however, to date, no study has attempted to verify its role in predicting determinants of ADHF in-hospital worsening. In this single-center, cross-sectional study, we consecutively enrolled patients aged 75 or older hospitalized with ADHF in a tertiary care hospital. All of the patients underwent a complete clinical examination, blood tests, and POCUS, including Lung Ultrasound and Focused Cardiac Ultrasound. Out of 184 patients hospitalized with ADHF, 60 experienced ADHF in-hospital worsening. By multivariable logistic analysis, total Pleural Effusion Score (PEFs) [aO.R.: 1.15 (CI95% 1.02-1.33), p = 0.043] and IVC collapsibility [aO.R.: 0.90 (CI95% 0.83-0.95), p = 0.039] emerged as independent predictors of acute HF worsening after extensive adjustment for potential confounders. In conclusion, POCUS holds promise for enhancing risk assessment, tailoring diuretic treatment, and optimizing discharge timing for older patients with ADHF.

Pitfalls of Early Systemic Corticosteroids Home Therapy in Older Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia.

Corticosteroids have been widely used for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), but their role in the early phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection is controversial. Our study aimed to determine the effectiveness of early corticosteroid therapy (ECT) in preventing the progression of disease, reducing the escalation of care and improving clinical outcome in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia. A total of 90 subjects (47.7% women; mean age = 82.3 ± 6.7 years) were enrolled. ECT was administered to 33 out of 90 patients before the hospitalization. At admission, no difference was detected in median SOFA score (2, IQR:2 vs. 2, IQR: 2). We found a significant difference in mean PaO2/FiO2 ratio during the first week of hospitalization between ECT patients and controls (F = 5.49, p = 0.002) and in mean PaO2/FiO2 ratio over time (F = 6.94, p < 0.0001). We detected no-significant differences in terms of in-hospital mortality and transfer to ICU between ECT patients and controls (27.1% vs. 22.8%, respectively, p = 0.63). ECT was associated with worse clinical outcomes, showing no benefit in attenuating the progression of the disease or reducing the escalation of care. These findings are crucial given the current pandemic, and further studies are needed to provide additional data on the optimal timing of initiating corticosteroid treatment.