Esophageal Columnar Metaplasia in Childhood: A Population-Based Case Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Adults with Barrett's esophagus (BE) are often entered into surveillance for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), although cancer risk is relatively low. BE can be detected in children (< 16 years). Little is known about the epidemiology of pediatric BE, and it is unclear what the optimal surveillance regimes are in children. AIM: To evaluate the demographic and clinical characteristics, and future neoplastic progression risk in all pediatric BE patients diagnosed in Northern Ireland between 1993 and 2010. METHODS: Data from the population-based Northern Ireland BE register were matched to the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry for EAC outcomes until end 2013. Age-adjusted incidence of pediatric BE was calculated, and characteristics between pediatric and adult BE patients compared using Chi-square tests. RESULTS: Over 18 years, 42 pediatric BE patients (< 16 years) were identified, equivalent to an age-adjusted incidence of < 2 per 100,000 children. There was a clear age differential, with BE incidence increasing with age within the pediatric population. The majority (85.7%) of patients were male, a significantly higher male/female ratio than adult BE patients (p < 0.001). No pediatric BE patients progressed to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or EAC, although the eldest patient was aged 34 years by the end of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest series of pediatric BE ever reported. It demonstrates that pediatric BE is rare. The male preponderance of this condition is more apparent in childhood compared with adult cases. No children developed HGD/EAC during follow-up, suggesting that regular surveillance is not required, at least until adulthood.

Alcohol intake, tobacco smoking, and esophageal adenocarcinoma survival: a molecular pathology epidemiology cohort study.

PURPOSE: To investigate the association between cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, and esophageal adenocarcinoma survival, including stratified analysis by selected prognostic biomarkers. METHODS: A population-representative sample of 130 esophageal adenocarcinoma patients (n = 130) treated at the Northern Ireland Cancer Centre between 2004 and 2012. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to evaluate associations between smoking status, alcohol intake, and survival. Secondary analyses investigated these associations across categories of p53, HER2, CD8, and GLUT-1 biomarker expression. RESULTS: In esophageal adenocarcinoma patients, there was a significantly increased risk of cancer-specific mortality in ever, compared to never, alcohol drinkers in unadjusted (HR 1.96 95% CI 1.13-3.38) but not adjusted (HR 1.70 95% CI 0.95-3.04) analysis. This increased risk of death observed for alcohol consumers was more evident in patients with normal p53 expression, GLUT-1 positive or CD-8 positive tumors. There were no significant associations between survival and smoking status in esophageal adenocarcinoma patients. CONCLUSIONS: In esophageal adenocarcinoma patients, cigarette smoking or alcohol consumption was not associated with a significant difference in survival in comparison with never smokers and never drinkers in fully adjusted analysis. However, in some biomarker-selected subgroups, ever-alcohol consumption was associated with a worsened survival in comparison with never drinkers. Larger studies are needed to investigate these findings, as these lifestyle habits may not only be linked to cancer risk but also cancer survival.

High PTGS2 expression in post-neoadjuvant chemotherapy-treated oesophageal adenocarcinoma is associated with improved survival: a population-based cohort study.

AIMS: High prostaglandin endoperoxide synthase-2 (PTGS2) enzyme expression in oesophageal adenocarcinoma has been shown to independently predict poor prognosis; however, the evidence is inconsistent. The aim of this study was to investigated the association between PTGS2 expression and prognosis in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cohort of 135 patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery from 2004 to 2012 was identified in the Northern Ireland Cancer Centre. Tissue microarrays were created in the Northern Ireland Biobank, with triplicate cores being sampled from each tumour. Immunohistochemical PTGS2 expression was scored by two independent assessors, with intensity and proportion of tumour staining being used to calculate H-scores for each patient. Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for overall and cancer-specific survival, and recurrence-free survival by PTGS2 expression, with adjustment for potential confounders. Patients were followed up for a mean of 3.0 years (standard deviation 1.8 years). The PTGS2 expression cut-off value was determined from the median H-score of the cohort (270/300). High (n = 79), as compared with low (n = 56), PTGS2 expression was associated with improved cancer-specific survival (adjusted HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.33-0.94; P = 0.03). PTGS2 expression was not significantly associated with recurrence-free survival (adjusted HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.52-1.38; P = 0.51). CONCLUSIONS: High PTGS2 expression in oesophageal adenocarcinoma tissue was associated with improved overall and cancer-specific survival, in contrast to previous evidence. As this is the first study of its kind to include patients who had undergone neoadjuvant chemotherapy, further studies are needed to clarify these associations.

Oesophageal adenocarcinoma and prior diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus (BO) provides an opportunity to detect early stage oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC). We sought to determine the proportion of OAC patients with a prior diagnosis of BO on a population basis and to evaluate the influence of a prior diagnosis of BO on survival, taking into account lead and length time biases. DESIGN: A retrospective population-based study of all OAC patients in Northern Ireland between 2003 and 2008. A prior BO diagnosis was determined by linkage to the Northern Ireland BO register. Stage distribution at diagnosis and histological grade were compared between patients with and without a prior BO diagnosis. Overall survival, using Cox models, was compared between patients with and without a prior BO diagnosis. The effect of adjusting the survival differences for histological grade and estimates of lead and length time bias was assessed. RESULTS: There were 716 OAC cases, 52 (7.3%) of whom had a prior BO diagnosis. Patients with a prior BO diagnosis had significantly lower tumour stage (44.2% vs. 11.1% had stage 1 or 2 disease; p<0.001), a higher rate of surgical resection (50.0% vs. 25.5%; p<0.001) and had a higher proportion of low/intermediate grade tumours (46.2% vs. 26.5%; p=0.011). A prior BO diagnosis was associated with significantly better survival (HR for death 0.39; 95% CI 0.27 to 0.58), which was minimally influenced by adjustment for age, sex and tumour grade (adjusted HR 0.44; 95% CI 0.30 to 0.64). Correction for lead time bias attenuated but did not abolish the survival benefit (HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.95) and further adjustment for length time bias had little effect. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of OAC patients with a prior diagnosis of BO is low; however, prior identification of BO is associated with an improvement in survival in OAC patients.

Whole slide image cytometry: a novel method to detect abnormal DNA content in Barrett's esophagus.

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a precursor of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Both low-grade dysplasia (LGD) and high-grade dysplasia (HGD) are associated with an increased risk of progression to EAC. However, histological interpretation and grading of dysplasia (particularly LGD) is subjective and poorly reproducible. This study has combined whole slide imaging with DNA image cytometry to provide a novel method for the detection of abnormal DNA content through image analysis of tissue sections. A total of 20 cases were evaluated, including 8 negative for dysplasia (NFD), 6 LGD, and 6 HGD. Feulgen-stained esophageal sections were scanned in their entirety. Barrett's mucosa was interactively chosen for automatic nuclei segmentation where irrelevant cell types were ignored. The combined DNA content histogram for all nuclei within selected image regions was then obtained. In addition, three histogram measurements were computed, including xER-5C, 2cDI, and DNA-MG. Visual evaluation suggested the shape of DNA content histograms from NFD, LGD, and HGD cases exhibiting identifiable differences. The histogram measurements, xER-5C, 2cDI, and DNA-MG, were shown to be effective in differentiating metaplastic from dysplastic cases with statistical significance. Moreover, they also successfully separated NFD, LGD, and HGD patients with statistical significance. Whole slide image cytometry is a novel and effective method for the detection of abnormal DNA content in BE. Compared with histological review, it is more objective. Compared with flow cytometry and cytology-preparation image cytometry, it is low cost, simple to use, only requires a single 1 µm section, and facilitates selection of tissue and topographical correlation. Whole slide image cytometry can detect differences in DNA content between NFD, LGD, and HGD patients in this cross-sectional study. Abnormal DNA content detection by whole slide image cytometry is a promising biomarker of progression that could affect future diagnostics in BE.

Symptoms and endoscopic features at barrett's esophagus diagnosis: implications for neoplastic progression risk.

OBJECTIVES: Risk stratification of Barrett's esophagus (BE) patients based on clinical and endoscopic features may help to optimize surveillance practice for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) development. The aim of this study was to investigate patient symptoms and endoscopic features at index endoscopy and risk of neoplastic progression in a large population-based cohort of BE patients. METHODS: A retrospective review of hospital records relating to incident BE diagnosis was conducted in a subset of patients with specialized intestinal metaplasia from the Northern Ireland BE register. Patients were matched to the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry to identify progressors to EAC or esophageal high-grade dysplasia (HGD). Cox proportional hazards models were applied to evaluate the association between endoscopic features, symptoms, and neoplastic progression risk. RESULTS: During 27,997 person-years of follow-up, 128 of 3,148 BE patients progressed to develop HGD/EAC. Ulceration within the Barrett's segment, but not elsewhere in the esophagus, was associated with an increased risk of progression (hazard ratio (HR) 1.72; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-2.76). Long-segment BE carried a significant sevenfold increased risk of progression compared with short-segment BE; none of the latter group developed EAC during the study period. Conversely, the absence of reflux symptoms was associated with an increased risk of cancer progression (HR 1.61; 95% CI: 1.05-2.46). CONCLUSIONS: BE patients presenting with a long-segment BE or Barrett's ulcer have an increased risk of progressing to HGD/EAC and should be considered for more intense surveillance. The absence of reflux symptoms at BE diagnosis is not associated with a reduced risk of malignant progression, and may carry an increased risk of progression.

Characterization of the timing and prevalence of receptor tyrosine kinase expression changes in oesophageal carcinogenesis.

Despite being common in epithelial malignancies, the timing of receptor tyrosine kinase (RTK) up-regulation is poorly understood and therefore hampers the identification of the receptor to target for effective treatment. We aimed to determine if RTK expression changes were early events in carcinogenesis. Oesophageal adenocarcinoma and its pre-invasive lesion, Barrett's oesophagus, were used for immunohistochemical analysis of the RTK panel, EGFR, ErbB2, ErbB3, Met, and FGFR2, by utilizing a cohort of patients with invasive disease (n = 367) and two cohorts with pre-invasive disease, one cross-sectional (n = 110) and one longitudinal in time (n = 91). The results demonstrated that 51% of oesophageal adenocarcinomas overexpressed at least one of the RTK panel, with 21% of these overexpressing multiple receptors. Up-regulation of RTK expression was an early event corresponding with low-grade dysplasia development (25% in areas without dysplasia versus 63% in low-grade dysplasia, p < 0.001). There was a trend for an increase in the prevalence of concomitant overexpression of multiple receptors as intestinal metaplasia progressed to low-grade dysplasia, 7% versus 10%; and from low-grade dysplasia to high-grade dysplasia, 10% versus 19% (p = 0.06 and 0.24, respectively). The timing of receptor up-regulation varied; FGFR, ErbB2, and Met overexpression occurred as dysplasia first developed, whilst EGFR overexpression was predominately seen in invasive disease and ErbB3 overexpression was uniformly rare. We provide evidence for a frequent and early role for multiple different RTKs in oesophageal carcinogenesis. Given the early timing of receptor deregulation, inhibiting RTKs in pre-invasive disease may also represent a novel and effective chemopreventive strategy.

Population-based study reveals new risk-stratification biomarker panel for Barrett's esophagus.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The risk of progression of Barrett's esophagus (BE) to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is low and difficult to calculate. Accurate tools to determine risk are needed to optimize surveillance and intervention. We assessed the ability of candidate biomarkers to predict which cases of BE will progress to EAC or high-grade dysplasia and identified those that can be measured in formalin-fixed tissues. METHODS: We analyzed data from a nested case-control study performed using the population-based Northern Ireland BE Register (1993-2005). Cases who progressed to EAC (n = 89) or high-grade dysplasia ≥ 6 months after diagnosis with BE were matched to controls (nonprogressors, n = 291), for age, sex, and year of BE diagnosis. Established biomarkers (abnormal DNA content, p53, and cyclin A expression) and new biomarkers (levels of sialyl Lewis(a), Lewis(x), and Aspergillus oryzae lectin [AOL] and binding of wheat germ agglutinin) were assessed in paraffin-embedded tissue samples from patients with a first diagnosis of BE. Conditional logistic regression analysis was applied to assess odds of progression for patients with dysplastic and nondysplastic BE, based on biomarker status. RESULTS: Low-grade dysplasia and all biomarkers tested, other than Lewis(x), were associated with risk of EAC or high-grade dysplasia. In backward selection, a panel comprising low-grade dysplasia, abnormal DNA ploidy, and AOL most accurately identified progressors and nonprogressors. The adjusted odds ratio for progression of patients with BE with low-grade dysplasia was 3.74 (95% confidence interval, 2.43-5.79) for each additional biomarker and the risk increased by 2.99 for each additional factor (95% confidence interval, 1.72-5.20) in patients without dysplasia. CONCLUSIONS: Low-grade dysplasia, abnormal DNA ploidy, and AOL can be used to identify patients with BE most likely to develop EAC or high-grade dysplasia.

Pathologic Lymph Node Regression After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Predicts Recurrence and Survival in Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: A Multicenter Study in the United Kingdom.

PURPOSE: There is limited evidence regarding the prognostic effects of pathologic lymph node (LN) regression after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for esophageal adenocarcinoma, and a definition of LN response is lacking. This study aimed to evaluate how LN regression influences survival after surgery for esophageal adenocarcinoma. METHODS: Multicenter cohort study of patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgical resection at five high-volume centers in the United Kingdom. LNs retrieved at esophagectomy were examined for chemotherapy response and given a LN regression score (LNRS)-LNRS 1, complete response; 2, <10% residual tumor; 3, 10%-50% residual tumor; 4, >50% residual tumor; and 5, no response. Survival analysis was performed using Cox regression adjusting for confounders including primary tumor regression. The discriminatory ability of different LN response classifications to predict survival was evaluated using Akaike information criterion and Harrell C-index. RESULTS: In total, 17,930 LNs from 763 patients were examined. LN response classified as complete LN response (LNRS 1 ≥1 LN, no residual tumor in any LN; n = 62, 8.1%), partial LN response (LNRS 1-3 ≥1 LN, residual tumor ≥1 LN; n = 155, 20.3%), poor/no LN response (LNRS 4-5; n = 303, 39.7%), or LN negative (no tumor/regression; n = 243, 31.8%) demonstrated superior discriminatory ability. Mortality was reduced in patients with complete LN response (hazard ratio [HR], 0.35; 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.56), partial LN response (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.93) or negative LNs (HR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.42) compared with those with poor/no LN response. Primary tumor regression and LN regression were discordant in 165 patients (21.9%). CONCLUSION: Pathologic LN regression after neoadjuvant chemotherapy was a strong prognostic factor and provides important information beyond pathologic TNM staging and primary tumor regression grading. LN regression should be included as standard in the pathologic reporting of esophagectomy specimens.

External validation of a model to determine risk of progression of Barrett's oesophagus to neoplasia.

BACKGROUND: A risk prediction model containing sex, smoking history, Barrett's oesophagus length and presence of low-grade dysplasia was found to identify individuals at a higher risk of progression to oesophageal adenocarcinoma or high-grade dysplasia. AIM: To externally validate the model predicting risk of progression from Barrett's oesophagus to neoplasia and assess the predictive utility of additional factors. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among individuals from the population-based Northern Ireland Barrett's register with a histologically confirmed diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus (with intestinal metaplasia) between 1993 and 2005. The association between a points based model and risk of progression to high-grade dysplasia or oesophageal adenocarcinoma until 2010 was assessed using Cox Proportional Hazards model. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROC), sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: We identified 1198 individuals with Barrett's oesophagus of whom 54 progressed. The model discriminated reasonably well between progressors and nonprogressors, with an AUROC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.63-0.78). When categorised into low, intermediate and high risk groups, the AUROC was 0.68 (95% CI 0.61-0.74). Compared to using data on dysplasia and segment length for risk stratification, the model resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 20.9%. CONCLUSIONS: This external validation provides further evidence that a model based on sex, smoking, Barrett's segment length and baseline low-grade dysplasia may help to risk stratify patients after an initial diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus. The model also performed better than the use of low-grade dysplasia status alone for risk-stratification.

Vitamin D receptor as a marker of prognosis in oesophageal adenocarcinoma: a prospective cohort study.

AIMS: Vitamin D receptor (VDR) expression has been associated with survival in several cancer sites. This study aims to evaluate the association between VDR expression and prognosis in oesophageal adenocarcinoma patients. RESULTS: During a median of 2.5 (maximum 9) years of follow-up, 75 patients died. In analysis adjusted for confounders, higher VDR expression was associated with an improved overall survival (HR 0.49 95% CI 0.25-0.96) and disease-specific survival (HR 0.50 95% CI 0.26-0.99), when comparing the highest with the lowest tertile of expression. These associations were strongest in sensitivity analysis restricted to junctional tumours. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to demonstrate that patients with higher VDR expression in oesophageal adenocarcinoma have a more favourable prognosis. Further work is needed to validate these findings, and to define the role of VDR in the aetiology, progression and management of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. METHODS: Oesophageal adenocarcinoma specimens and clinical data were collected from 130 patients treated with neo-adjuvant chemotherapy prior to surgical resection at the Northern Ireland Cancer Centre between 2004 and 2012. Tissue microarrays were created and immunohistochemical staining for VDR was performed on triplicate tumour cores from each resection specimen. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to evaluate associations between VDR, according to tertiles of expression, and survival outcomes.

Sex hormone receptor expression and survival in esophageal adenocarcinoma: a prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: A striking epidemiological feature of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is its strong, unexplained male predominance but few studies have evaluated the prevalence of sex hormone receptor expression in EAC. RESULTS: A low proportion of EAC tumors stained positive for ERα (4%) and AR (3%) while approximately one third stained positive for ERß (31%). After a mean follow-up of 3 years (max 9 years), no significant associations were seen for ERα, ERß or AR expression and EAC recurrence or survival. A non-significant reduction in mortality was observed for positive ERß tumor expression, when restricting to patients with gastro-esophageal junctional (GEJ) cancer (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.33, 1.03, p = 0.06). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified all EAC patients who underwent neo-adjuvant chemotherapy prior to surgical resection between 2004-2012 in the Northern Ireland Cancer Centre. Immunohistochemical expression of ERα, ERß and AR was scored on triplicate cores to generate H-scores. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the association between sex hormone receptor expression and overall, cancer-specific and recurrence-free survival. CONCLUSION: We found little evidence of ERα or AR expression in EAC. A moderate proportion expressed ERß and there was suggestive evidence that its expression was associated with improved survival in GEJ cancer patients.

'Missed' oesophageal adenocarcinoma and high-grade dysplasia in Barrett's oesophagus patients: A large population-based study.

BACKGROUND: A systematic review suggests that 25% of oesophageal adenocarcinomas (OAC) are 'missed' at index endoscopy for Barrett's oesophagus (BO); however, this included few population-based studies and may be an overestimate. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this article is to quantify the 'missed' rates of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and OAC at index BO endoscopy. METHODS: Patients from the Northern Ireland BO register diagnosed between 1993 and 2010 (n = 13,159) were linked to the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry to identify patients who developed OAC or HGD. Logistic regression analysis compared characteristics of 'missed' vs 'incident' HGD/OAC, defined as diagnoses within 3-12 months vs >1 year after incident BO, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 267 patients were diagnosed with HGD/OAC ≥3 months after BO diagnosis, of whom 34 (12.7%) were potentially 'missed'. The proportion of 'missed' HGD/OAC was 25% among BO patients with low-grade dysplasia (LGD) and 9% among non-dysplastic BO patients. Older age and BO-LGD carried a higher risk of 'missed' HGD/OAC. Non-dysplastic BO patients were more often diagnosed with a 'missed' OAC (rather than HGD; 89%), compared with BO-LGD patients (40%). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one in 10 HGD/OAC cases are 'missed' at incident BO diagnosis, which is significant but lower than previous reports. However, 'missed' HGD/OAC cases represent only 0.26% of all BO patients.

Biomarkers of esophageal adenocarcinoma and Barrett's esophagus.

The rising incidence and poor prognosis of esophageal adenocarcinoma in the Western world have intensified research efforts into earlier methods of detection of this disease and its relationship to Barrett's esophagus. The progression of Barrett's esophagus to adenocarcinoma has been the focus of particular scrutiny, and a number of potential tissue and serum-based disease biomarkers have emerged. The epidemiology and pathogenesis of esophageal adenocarcinoma are outlined. Tissue biomarkers allowing risk stratification of Barrett's are reviewed as well as strategies currently being used to discover novel biomarkers that will facilitate the early detection of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Finally, the uses of biomarkers as predictive tests for targeted treatments and as surrogate endpoints in chemoprevention trials are considered.

Aggressive natural killer cell leukemia/lymphoma: case report, use of telesynergy and review of the literature.

Natural killer cell malignancies, although increasingly recognized, remain rare tumors within the USA and Europe. They are somewhat more common in Asia, and have been best characterized within this population. We present a case of a young Caucasian woman who presented acutely with an aggressive natural killer cell leukemia/lymphoma. Use of Telesynergy technology enabled a transatlantic telemedicine conference with colleagues in a center of expertise. Unfortunately the patient was ultimately refractory to both conventional chemotherapy and Campath-1H and her disease course was fulminant, as has been described previously in this condition. We review the possible therapeutic options for this extremely aggressive malignancy and briefly discuss our center's experience of telemedicine technology.

Risk of malignant progression in Barrett's esophagus patients: results from a large population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a premalignant lesion that predisposes to esophageal adenocarcinoma. However, the reported incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma in patients with BE varies widely. We examined the risk of malignant progression in patients with BE using data from the Northern Ireland Barrett's esophagus Register (NIBR), one of the largest population-based registries of BE worldwide, which includes every adult diagnosed with BE in Northern Ireland between 1993 and 2005. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We followed 8522 patients with BE, defined as columnar lined epithelium of the esophagus with or without specialized intestinal metaplasia (SIM), until the end of 2008. Patients with incident adenocarcinomas of the esophagus or gastric cardia or with high-grade dysplasia of the esophagus were identified by matching the NIBR with the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, and deaths were identified by matching with records from the Registrar General's Office. Incidence of cancer outcomes or high-grade dysplasia was calculated as events per 100 person-years (% per year) of follow-up, and Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine incidence by age, sex, length of BE segment, presence of SIM, macroscopic BE, or low-grade dysplasia. All P values were from two-sided tests. RESULTS: After a mean of 7.0 years of follow-up, 79 patients were diagnosed with esophageal cancer, 16 with cancer of the gastric cardia, and 36 with high-grade dysplasia. In the entire cohort, incidence of esophageal or gastric cardia cancer or high-grade dysplasia combined was 0.22% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.19% to 0.26%). SIM was found in 46.0% of patients. In patients with SIM, the combined incidence was 0.38% per year (95% CI = 0.31 to 0.46%). The risk of cancer was statistically significantly elevated in patients with vs without SIM at index biopsy (0.38% per year vs 0.07% per year; hazard ratio [HR] = 3.54, 95% CI = 2.09 to 6.00, P < .001), in men compared with women (0.28% per year vs 0.13% per year; HR = 2.11, 95% CI = 1.41 to 3.16, P < .001), and in patients with low-grade dysplasia compared with no dysplasia (1.40% per year vs 0.17% per year; HR = 5.67, 95% CI = 3.77 to 8.53, P < .001). CONCLUSION: We found the risk of malignant progression among patients with BE to be lower than previously reported, suggesting that currently recommended surveillance strategies may not be cost-effective.