Why does women's fertility end in mid-life? Grandmothering and age at last birth.

Great apes, the other living members of our hominid family, become decrepit before the age of forty and rarely outlive their fertile years. In contrast, women - even in high mortality hunter-gatherer populations - usually remain healthy and productive well beyond menopause. The grandmother hypothesis aims to account for the evolution of this distinctive feature of human life history. Our previous mathematical simulations of that hypothesis fixed the end of female fertility at the age of 45, based on the similarities among living hominids, and then modeled the evolution of human-like longevity from an ancestral state, like that of the great apes, due only to grandmother effects. A major modification here allows the age female fertility ends to vary as well, directly addressing a version of the question, influentially posed by GC Williams six decades ago: Why isn't menopause later in humans? Our model is an agent-based model (ABM) that accounts for the coevolution of both expected adult lifespan and end of female fertility as selection maximizes reproductive value. We find that grandmother effects not only drive the population from an equilibrium representing a great ape-like longevity to a new human-like longevity, they also maintain the observed termination of women's fertility before the age of 50.

3 versus 6 months of adjuvant oxaliplatin-fluoropyrimidine combination therapy for colorectal cancer (SCOT): an international, randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: 6 months of oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy is usually given as adjuvant treatment for stage 3 colorectal cancer. We investigated whether 3 months of oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy would be non-inferior to the usual 6 months of treatment. METHODS: The SCOT study was an international, randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial done at 244 centres. Patients aged 18 years or older with high-risk stage II and stage III colorectal cancer underwent central randomisation with minimisation for centre, choice of regimen, sex, disease site, N stage, T stage, and the starting dose of capecitabine. Patients were assigned (1:1) to receive 3 months or 6 months of adjuvant oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy. The chemotherapy regimens could consist of CAPOX (capecitabine and oxaliplatin) or FOLFOX (bolus and infused fluorouracil with oxaliplatin). The regimen was selected before randomisation in accordance with choices of the patient and treating physician. The primary study endpoint was disease-free survival and the non-inferiority margin was a hazard ratio of 1·13. The primary analysis was done in the intention-to-treat population and safety was assessed in patients who started study treatment. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN59757862, and follow-up is continuing. FINDINGS: 6088 patients underwent randomisation between March 27, 2008, and Nov 29, 2013. The intended treatment was FOLFOX in 1981 patients and CAPOX in 4107 patients. 3044 patients were assigned to 3 month group and 3044 were assigned to 6 month group. Nine patients in the 3 month group and 14 patients in the 6 month group did not consent for their data to be used, leaving 3035 patients in the 3 month group and 3030 patients in the 6 month group for the intention-to-treat analyses. At the cutoff date for analysis, there had been 1482 disease-free survival events, with 740 in the 3 month group and 742 in the 6 month group. 3 year disease-free survival was 76·7% (95% CI 75·1-78·2) for the 3 month group and 77·1% (75·6-78·6) for the 6 month group, giving a hazard ratio of 1·006 (0·909-1·114, test for non-inferiority p=0·012), significantly below the non-inferiority margin. Peripheral neuropathy of grade 2 or worse was more common in the 6 month group (237 [58%] of 409 patients for the subset with safety data) than in the 3 month group (103 [25%] of 420) and was long-lasting and associated with worse quality of life. 1098 serious adverse events were reported (492 reports in the 3 month group and 606 reports in the 6 month group) and 32 treatment-related deaths occurred (16 in each group). INTERPRETATION: In the whole study population, 3 months of oxaliplatin-containing adjuvant chemotherapy was non-inferior to 6 months of the same therapy for patients with high-risk stage II and stage III colorectal cancer and was associated with reduced toxicity and improved quality of life. Despite the fact the study was underpowered, these data suggest that a shorter duration leads to similar survival outcomes with better quality of life and thus might represent a new standard of care. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Swedish Cancer Society, NETSCC, and Cancer Research UK.

SCOT: a comparison of cost-effectiveness from a large randomised phase III trial of two durations of adjuvant Oxaliplatin combination chemotherapy for colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The Short Course Oncology Therapy (SCOT) study is an international, multicentre, non-inferiority randomised controlled trial assessing the efficacy, toxicity, and cost-effectiveness of 3 months (3 M) versus the usually given 6 months (6 M) of adjuvant chemotherapy in colorectal cancer. METHODS: In total, 6088 patients with fully resected high-risk stage II or stage III colorectal cancer were randomised and followed up for 3-8 years. The within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis from a UK health-care perspective is presented using the resource use data, quality of life (EQ-5D-3L), time on treatment (ToT), disease-free survival after treatment (DFS) and overall survival (OS) data. Quality-adjusted partitioned survival analysis and Kaplan-Meier Sample Average Estimator estimated QALYs and costs. Probabilistic sensitivity and subgroup analysis was undertaken. RESULTS: The 3 M arm is less costly (-£4881; 95% CI: -£6269; -£3492) and entails (non-significant) QALY gains (0.08; 95% CI: -0.086; 0.230) due to a better significant quality of life. The net monetary benefit was significantly higher in 3 M under a wide range of monetary values of a QALY. The subgroup analysis found similar results for patients in the CAPOX regimen. However, for the FOLFOX regimen, 3 M had lower QALYs than 6 M (not statistically significant). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, 3 M dominates 6 M with no significant detrimental impact on QALYs. The results provide the economic case that a 3 M treatment strategy should be considered a new standard of care.

Grandmothering life histories and human pair bonding.

The evolution of distinctively human life history and social organization is generally attributed to paternal provisioning based on pair bonds. Here we develop an alternative argument that connects the evolution of human pair bonds to the male-biased mating sex ratios that accompanied the evolution of human life history. We simulate an agent-based model of the grandmother hypothesis, compare simulated sex ratios to data on great apes and human hunter-gatherers, and note associations between a preponderance of males and mate guarding across taxa. Then we explore a recent model that highlights the importance of mating sex ratios for differences between birds and mammals and conclude that lessons for human evolution cannot ignore mammalian reproductive constraints. In contradiction to our claim that male-biased sex ratios are characteristically human, female-biased ratios are reported in some populations. We consider the likelihood that fertile men are undercounted and conclude that the mate-guarding hypothesis for human pair bonds gains strength from explicit links with our grandmothering life history.

Grandmothering drives the evolution of longevity in a probabilistic model.

We present a mathematical model based on the Grandmother Hypothesis to simulate how human post-menopausal longevity could have evolved as ancestral grandmothers began to assist the reproductive success of younger females by provisioning grandchildren. Grandmothers׳ help would allow mothers to give birth to subsequent offspring sooner without risking the survival of existing offspring. Our model is an agent-based model (ABM), in which the population evolves according to probabilistic rules governing interactions among individuals. The model is formulated according to the Gillespie algorithm of determining the times to next events. Grandmother effects drive the population from an equilibrium representing a great-ape-like average adult lifespan in the lower twenties to a new equilibrium with a human-like average adult lifespan in the lower forties. The stochasticity of the ABM allows the possible coexistence of two locally-stable equilibria, corresponding to great-ape-like and human-like lifespans. Populations with grandmothering that escape the ancestral condition then shift to human-like lifespan, but the transition takes longer than previous models (Kim et al., 2012). Our simulations are consistent with the possibility that distinctive longevity is a feature of genus Homo that long antedated the appearance of our species.

SCOT: Tumor Sidedness and the Influence of Adjuvant Chemotherapy Duration on Disease Free Survival (DFS).

AIM: Patients with loco-regional right-sided colorectal tumors have a worse overall survival (OS). Here we investigate the difference in disease free survival (DFS) between colorectal patients with right and left sided tumors in the SCOT study. METHODS: The SCOT study showed 3-months of oxaliplatin-containing adjuvant chemotherapy (OxFp) is non-inferior to 6-months for patients with stage III and high-risk stage II colorectal cancer. We divided the cohort into patients with left and right sided tumors, and evaluated the effect on DFS and the principle 3 versus 6-months analysis. RESULTS: 6088 patients with Stage III/high risk Stage II colorectal cancers were randomized between 27th March 2008 and 29th November 2013 from 244 centers internationally. In February 2017 (3-years FU) information on sidedness was available for 3309 patients (1238 R-sided, 2071 L-sided). Patients with right-sided tumors had a significantly worse DFS (3-year DFS right: 73.3% (se = 1.3%), left: 80.2% (se = 0.9%) HR 1.423 (95% CI 1.237-1.637; P < .0001). Adjusting for T and N-stage reduced the HR to 1.230 (95% CI 1.066-1.420, P = .005). The data did not suggest that sidedness affected the impact of chemotherapy duration on 3-year DFS (R: HR 1.024 [0.831-1.261], L: HR 0.944 [0.783-1.139]). Test for heterogeneity, P = .571. Further sub-set analysis was limited due to cohort size. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to show that unselected patients with right-sided tumors had a worse DFS compared to left-sided tumors. Tumor sidedness did not impact upon the 3-months versus 6-months comparison in SCOT.

The copy number and mutational landscape of recurrent ovarian high-grade serous carcinoma.

The drivers of recurrence and resistance in ovarian high grade serous carcinoma remain unclear. We investigate the acquisition of resistance by collecting tumour biopsies from a cohort of 276 women with relapsed ovarian high grade serous carcinoma in the BriTROC-1 study. Panel sequencing shows close concordance between diagnosis and relapse, with only four discordant cases. There is also very strong concordance in copy number between diagnosis and relapse, with no significant difference in purity, ploidy or focal somatic copy number alterations, even when stratified by platinum sensitivity or prior chemotherapy lines. Copy number signatures are strongly correlated with immune cell infiltration, whilst diagnosis samples from patients with primary platinum resistance have increased rates of CCNE1 and KRAS amplification and copy number signature 1 exposure. Our data show that the ovarian high grade serous carcinoma genome is remarkably stable between diagnosis and relapse and acquired chemotherapy resistance does not select for common copy number drivers.

Three Versus Six Months of Adjuvant Doublet Chemotherapy for Patients With Colorectal Cancer: A Multi-Country Cost-Effectiveness and Budget Impact Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Short Course Oncology Treatment (SCOT) trial demonstrated non-inferiority, less toxicity, and cost-effectiveness from a UK perspective of 3 versus 6 months of oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy for patients with colorectal cancer. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of shorter treatment and the budget impact of implementing trial findings from the perspectives of all countries recruited to SCOT: Australia, Denmark, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individual cost-utility analyses were performed from the perspective of each country. Resource, quality of life, and survival estimates from the SCOT trial (N = 6065) were used. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and subgroup analyses were undertaken. Using undiscounted costs from these cost-utility analyses, the impact on country-specific healthcare budgets of implementing the SCOT trial findings was calculated over a 5-year period. The currency used was US dollars (US$), and 2019 was the base year. One-way and scenario sensitivity analysis addressed uncertainty within the budget impact analysis. RESULTS: Three months of treatment were cost saving and cost-effective compared to 6 months from the perspective of all countries. The incremental net monetary benefit per patient ranged from US$8972 (Spain) to US$13,884 (Denmark). The healthcare budget impact over 5 years for the base-case scenario ranged from US$3.6 million (New Zealand) to US$61.4 million (UK) and totaled over US$150 million across all countries. CONCLUSION: This study has widened the transferability of results from the SCOT trial, showing that shorter treatment is cost-effective from a multi-country perspective. The vast savings from implementation could fully justify the investment in conducting the SCOT trial.

Pattern Recognition Receptor Polymorphisms as Predictors of Oxaliplatin Benefit in Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Constitutional loss of function (LOF) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in pattern recognition receptors FPR1, TLR3, and TLR4 have previously been reported to predict oxaliplatin benefit in colorectal cancer. Confirmation of this association could substantially improve patient stratification. METHODS: We performed a retrospective biomarker analysis of the Short Course in Oncology Therapy (SCOT) and COIN/COIN-B trials. Participant status for LOF variants in FPR1 (rs867228), TLR3 (rs3775291), and TLR4 (rs4986790/rs4986791) was determined by genotyping array or genotype imputation. Associations between LOF variants and disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed by Cox regression, adjusted for confounders, using additive, dominant, and recessive genetic models. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Our validation study populations included 2929 and 1948 patients in the SCOT and COIN/COIN-B cohorts, respectively, of whom 2728 and 1672 patients had functional status of all three SNPs determined. We found no evidence of an association between any SNP and DFS in the SCOT cohort, or with OS in either cohort, irrespective of the type of model used. This included models for which an association was previously reported for rs867228 (recessive model, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for DFS in SCOT = 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.99 to 1.45, P = .07; HR for OS in COIN/COIN-B = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.63 to 1.34, P = .66), and rs4986790 (dominant model, multivariable-adjusted HR for DFS in SCOT = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.65 to 1.13, P = .27; HR for OS in COIN/COIN-B = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.90 to 1.31, P = .40). CONCLUSION: In this prespecified analysis of two large clinical trials, we found no evidence that constitutional LOF SNPs in FPR1, TLR3, or TLR4 are associated with differential benefit from oxaliplatin. Our results suggest these SNPs are unlikely to be clinically useful biomarkers.

3-month versus 6-month adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with high-risk stage II and III colorectal cancer: 3-year follow-up of the SCOT non-inferiority RCT.

BACKGROUND: Oxaliplatin and fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy administered over 6 months is the standard adjuvant regimen for patients with high-risk stage II or III colorectal cancer. However, the regimen is associated with cumulative toxicity, characterised by chronic and often irreversible neuropathy. OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy of 3-month versus 6-month adjuvant chemotherapy for colorectal cancer and to compare the toxicity, health-related quality of life and cost-effectiveness of the durations. DESIGN: An international, randomised, open-label, non-inferiority, Phase III, parallel-group trial. SETTING: A total of 244 oncology clinics from six countries: UK (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland), Denmark, Spain, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged ≥ 18 years who had undergone curative resection for high-risk stage II or III adenocarcinoma of the colon or rectum. INTERVENTIONS: The adjuvant treatment regimen was either oxaliplatin and 5-fluorouracil or oxaliplatin and capecitabine, randomised to be administered over 3 or 6 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was disease-free survival. Overall survival, adverse events, neuropathy and health-related quality of life were also assessed. The main cost categories were chemotherapy treatment and hospitalisation. Cost-effectiveness was assessed through incremental cost comparisons and quality-adjusted life-year gains between the options and was reported as net monetary benefit using a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year per patient. RESULTS: Recruitment is closed. In total, 6088 patients were randomised (3044 per group) between 27 March 2008 and 29 November 2013, with 6065 included in the intention-to-treat analyses (3-month analysis, n = 3035; 6-month analysis, n = 3030). Follow-up for the primary analysis is complete. The 3-year disease-free survival rate in the 3-month treatment group was 76.7% (standard error 0.8%) and in the 6-month treatment group was 77.1% (standard error 0.8%), equating to a hazard ratio of 1.006 (95% confidence interval 0.909 to 1.114; p-value for non-inferiority = 0.012), confirming non-inferiority for 3-month adjuvant chemotherapy. Frequent adverse events (alopecia, anaemia, anorexia, diarrhoea, fatigue, hand-foot syndrome, mucositis, sensory neuropathy, neutropenia, pain, rash, altered taste, thrombocytopenia and watery eye) showed a significant increase in grade with 6-month duration; the greatest difference was for sensory neuropathy (grade ≥ 3 was 4% for 3-month vs.16% for 6-month duration), for which a higher rate of neuropathy was seen for the 6-month treatment group from month 4 to ≥ 5 years (p < 0.001). Quality-of-life scores were better in the 3-month treatment group over months 4-6. A cost-effectiveness analysis showed 3-month treatment to cost £4881 less over the 8-year analysis period, with an incremental net monetary benefit of £7246 per patient. CONCLUSIONS: The study achieved its primary end point, showing that 3-month oxaliplatin-containing adjuvant chemotherapy is non-inferior to 6 months of the same regimen; 3-month treatment showed a better safety profile and cost less. For future work, further follow-up will refine long-term estimates of the duration effect on disease-free survival and overall survival. The health economic analysis will be updated to include long-term extrapolation for subgroups. We expect these analyses to be available in 2019-20. The Short Course Oncology Therapy (SCOT) study translational samples may allow the identification of patients who would benefit from longer treatment based on the molecular characteristics of their disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN59757862 and EudraCT 2007-003957-10. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 64. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. This research was supported by the Medical Research Council (transferred to NIHR Evaluation, Trials and Studies Coordinating Centre - Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation; grant reference G0601705), the Swedish Cancer Society and Cancer Research UK Core Clinical Trials Unit Funding (funding reference C6716/A9894).

Patients diagnosed with bowel cancer are likely to have surgery to remove the tumour. Patients diagnosed with a more advanced stage of the disease are then likely to be offered what is known as adjuvant chemotherapy ­ chemotherapy to kill any cancer cells that have already spread but cannot be seen. Adjuvant chemotherapy is usually given over 6 months using two medicines known as oxaliplatin and fluoropyrimidine. This chemotherapy has side effects of diarrhoea, nausea and vomiting, and it reduces the numbers of cells in the blood. It can also damage nerves, which causes discomfort, numbness and tingling; in some cases, this can go on for years. These side effects are more likely to develop with longer treatment. This study looked at whether or not shortening the time over which patients were given oxaliplatin and fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy reduced its effectiveness. In this large study of over 6000 patients, half of the patients were allocated by chance to be treated for 3 months and the other half to be treated for 6 months. Reducing the time that patients had chemotherapy from 6 months to 3 months did not make the treatment less effective. When patients treated with chemotherapy over 3 months were compared with those treated over 6 months, 77% of patients in both groups were well with no detectable disease 3 years after surgery. Patients were less likely to get side effects with 3-month chemotherapy. In particular, the chance of persistent long-term nerve damage was lower, resulting in patients with 3-month chemotherapy having better health-related quality of life. Overall, the study showed that 3-month adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with bowel cancer is as effective as 6-month adjuvant chemotherapy and causes fewer side effects.

Evaluating cohort and intervention effects on black adolescents' ethnic-racial identity: a cognitive-cultural approach.

The importance of ethnic-racial socialization and ethnic-racial identity as protective factors in the psychological and social adjustment of Black youth is well established in the literature. Whaley (2003) developed a cognitive-cultural model of identity to explicate the process by which ethnic-racial socialization impacts ethnic-racial identity and subsequent social and behavioral outcomes among adolescents of African descent. The present study tests the cognitive-cultural model of identity utilizing pilot data from a modified Africentric intervention program. Both explicit and implicit aspects of ethnic-racial identity were evaluated between two cohorts: one group in 2003, which represented historical controls, and another group in 2008 which received the intervention and has pre-test and post-test data. We hypothesized that the evaluation of underlying implicit or schematic processes would be more sensitive to changes in ethnic-racial identity resulting from cohort and intervention effects. Our results confirmed this hypothesis. Implications of applying mainstream behavioral science research paradigms to issues of special concern to the Black community are discussed.

Over one thousand patients with early stage endometriosis treated with the Helica Thermal Coagulator (HELICA): safety aspects.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess the safety of the Helica Thermal Coagulator in the laparoscopic treatment of early stage endometriosis. DESIGN: Retrospective, observational. SETTINGS: The Princess Royal University Hospital, The Sloane and Chelsfield Park Hospitals, Kent, UK. PATIENTS: One thousand and sixty patients with early stage endometriosis. RESULTS: All patients were treated laparoscopically with the Helica Thermal Coagulator; a new laparoscopic device that combines electrical energy with helium for the treatment of endometriosis. No major bladder, ureteric or bowel injuries occurred. The only complication was a perforated vagina from the cutting probe during dissection of the cul-de-sac in a patient with a vaginal endometriotic nodule. CONCLUSION: The Helica Thermal Coagulator is a safe device for the laparoscopic treatment of endometriosis.