Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 18 de 18
Filtrar
Mais filtros

Bases de dados
Tipo de documento
País de afiliação
Intervalo de ano de publicação
1.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 28(12): 2425-2434, 2022 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36288573

RESUMO

SARS-CoV-2 likely emerged from an animal reservoir. However, the frequency of and risk factors for interspecies transmission remain unclear. We conducted a community-based study in Idaho, USA, of pets in households that had >1 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in humans. Among 119 dogs and 57 cats, clinical signs consistent with SARS-CoV-2 were reported for 20 dogs (21%) and 19 cats (39%). Of 81 dogs and 32 cats sampled, 40% of dogs and 43% of cats were seropositive, and 5% of dogs and 8% of cats were PCR positive. This discordance might be caused by delays in sampling. Respondents commonly reported close human‒animal contact and willingness to take measures to prevent transmission to their pets. Reported preventive measures showed a slightly protective but nonsignificant trend for both illness and seropositivity in pets. Sharing of beds and bowls had slight harmful effects, reaching statistical significance for sharing bowls and seropositivity.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Doenças do Gato , Humanos , Animais , Cães , Gatos , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/veterinária , Idaho/epidemiologia , Washington/epidemiologia , Características da Família , Animais de Estimação , Doenças do Gato/epidemiologia
2.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 846, 2021 Aug 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34418974

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: A proactive approach to preventing and responding to emerging infectious diseases is critical to global health security. We present a three-stage approach to modeling the spatial distribution of outbreak vulnerability to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú. METHODS: Extending a framework developed for modeling hemorrhagic fever vulnerability in Africa, we modeled outbreak vulnerability in three stages: index case potential (stage 1), outbreak receptivity (stage 2), and epidemic potential (stage 3), stratifying scores on season and El Niño events. Subsequently, we evaluated the validity of these scores using dengue surveillance data and spatial models. RESULTS: We found high validity for stage 1 and 2 scores, but not stage 3 scores. Vulnerability was highest in Selva Baja and Costa, and in summer and during El Niño events, with index case potential (stage 1) being high in both regions but outbreak receptivity (stage 2) being generally high in Selva Baja only. CONCLUSIONS: Stage 1 and 2 scores are well-suited to predicting outbreaks of Ae. aegypti-vectored diseases in this setting, however stage 3 scores appear better suited to diseases with direct human-to-human transmission. To prevent outbreaks, measures to detect index cases should be targeted to both Selva Baja and Costa, while Selva Baja should be prioritized for healthcare system strengthening. Successful extension of this framework from hemorrhagic fevers in Africa to an arbovirus in Latin America indicates its broad utility for outbreak and pandemic preparedness and response activities.


Assuntos
Aedes , Arbovírus , Dengue , Epidemias , Animais , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Insetos Vetores , Mosquitos Vetores
3.
Occup Environ Med ; 75(5): 359-368, 2018 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29478007

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Women in veterinary occupations are routinely exposed to potential reproductive hazards, yet research into their birth outcomes is limited. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of the association between maternal veterinary occupation and adverse birth outcomes. METHODS: Using Washington State birth certificate, fetal death certificate and hospital discharge data from 1992 to 2014, we compared birth outcomes of mothers in veterinary professions (n=2662) with those in mothers in dental professions (n=10 653) and other employed mothers (n=8082). Relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using log binomial regression. Outcomes studied were premature birth (<37 weeks), small for gestational age (SGA), malformations and fetal death (death at ≥20 weeks gestation). Subgroup analyses evaluated risk of these outcomes among veterinarians and veterinary support staff separately. RESULTS: While no statistically significant associations were found, we noted a trend for SGA births in all veterinary mothers compared with dental mothers (RR=1.16, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.36) and in veterinarians compared with other employed mothers (RR=1.37, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.96). Positive but non-significant association was found for malformations among children of veterinary support staff. CONCLUSIONS: These results support the need for further study of the association between veterinary occupation and adverse birth outcomes.


Assuntos
Anormalidades Congênitas/epidemiologia , Morte Fetal/etiologia , Recém-Nascido Pequeno para a Idade Gestacional , Doenças Profissionais/epidemiologia , Nascimento Prematuro/epidemiologia , Médicos Veterinários , Adulto , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Anormalidades Congênitas/etiologia , Odontólogos/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Doenças Profissionais/etiologia , Gravidez , Nascimento Prematuro/etiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Risco , Médicos Veterinários/estatística & dados numéricos , Medicina Veterinária/estatística & dados numéricos , Washington/epidemiologia
5.
Acta Trop ; 240: 106804, 2023 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36682395

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: . In response to large strides in the control of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), in the early 2000s the WHO set targets for elimination of both the gambiense (gHAT) and rhodesiense (rHAT) forms as a public health (EPHP) problem by 2020, and elimination of gHAT transmisson (EOT) by 2030. While global EPHP targets have been met, and EOT appears within reach, current control strategies may fail to achieve gHAT EOT in the presence of animal reservoirs, the role of which is currently uncertain. Furthermore, rHAT is not targeted for EOT due to the known importance of animal reservoirs for this form. METHODS: . To evaluate the utility of a One Health approach to gHAT and rHAT EOT, we built and parameterized a compartmental stochastic model, using the Institute for Disease Modeling's Compartmental Modeling Software, to six HAT epidemics: the national rHAT epidemics in Uganda and Malawi, the national gHAT epidemics in Uganda and South Sudan, and two separate gHAT epidemics in Democratic Republic of Congo distinguished by dominant vector species. In rHAT foci the reservoir animal sub-model was stratified on four species groups, while in gHAT foci domestic swine were assumed to be the only competent reservoir. The modeled time horizon was 2005-2045, with calibration performed using HAT surveillance data and Optuna. Interventions included insecticide and trypanocide treatment of domestic animal reservoirs at varying coverage levels. RESULTS: . Validation against HAT surveillance data indicates favorable performance overall, with the possible exception of DRC. EOT was not observed in any modeled scenarios for rHAT, however insecticide treatment consistently performed better than trypanocide treatment in terms of rHAT control. EOT was not observed for gHAT at 0% coverage of domestic reservoirs with trypanocides or insecticides, but was observed by 2030 in all test scenarios; again, insecticides demonstrated superior performance to trypanocides. CONCLUSIONS: EOT likely cannot be achieved for rHAT without control of wildlife reservoirs, however insecticide treatment of domestic animals holds promise for improved control. In the presence of domestic animal reservoirs, gHAT EOT may not be achieved under current control strategies.


Assuntos
Inseticidas , Saúde Única , Tripanossomicidas , Tripanossomíase Africana , Humanos , Animais , Suínos , Tripanossomíase Africana/epidemiologia , Tripanossomicidas/uso terapêutico , Inseticidas/uso terapêutico , Animais Domésticos
6.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 3(11): e0002543, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37967087

RESUMO

Livestock are important reservoirs for many zoonotic diseases, however the effects of livestock on human and environmental health extend well beyond direct disease transmission. In this retrospective ecological cohort study we use pre-existing data and the parametric g-formula, which imputes potential outcomes to quantify mediation, to estimate three hypothesized mechanisms by which livestock can influence human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) risk: the reservoir effect, where infected cattle and pigs are a source of infection to humans; the zooprophylactic effect, where preference for livestock hosts exhibited by the tsetse fly vector of HAT means that their presence protects humans from infection; and the environmental change effect, where livestock keeping activities modify the environment in such a way that habitat suitability for tsetse flies, and in turn human infection risk, is reduced. We conducted this study in four high burden countries: at the point level in Uganda, Malawi, and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and at the county level in South Sudan. Our results indicate cattle and pigs play a reservoir role for the rhodesiense form (rHAT) in Uganda (rate ratio (RR) 1.68, 95% CI 0.84, 2.82 for cattle; RR 2.16, 95% CI 1.18, 3.05 for pigs), however zooprophylaxis outweighs this effect for rHAT in Malawi (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.68, 1.00 for cattle, RR 0.38, 95% CI 0.21, 0.69 for pigs). For the gambiense form (gHAT) we found evidence that pigs may be a competent reservoir (RR 1.15, 95% CI 0.92, 1.72 in Uganda; RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.11, 1.42 in DRC). Statistical significance was reached for rHAT in Malawi (pigs and cattle) and Uganda (pigs only) and for gHAT in DRC (pigs and cattle). We did not find compelling evidence of an environmental change effect (all effect sizes close to 1).

7.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 16(6): e0010479, 2022 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35771874

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever is the most common arboviral disease in humans, with an estimated 50-100 million annual infections worldwide. Dengue fever cases have increased substantially in the past four decades, driven largely by anthropogenic factors including climate change. More than half the population of Peru is at risk of dengue infection and due to its geography, Peru is also particularly sensitive to the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Determining the effect of ENSO on the risk for dengue outbreaks is of particular public health relevance and may also be applicable to other Aedes-vectored viruses. METHODS: We conducted a time-series analysis at the level of the district-month, using surveillance data collected from January 2000 to September 2018 from all districts with a mean elevation suitable to survival of the mosquito vector (<2,500m), and ENSO and weather data from publicly-available datasets maintained by national and international agencies. We took a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to address correlation in space, and B-splines with four knots per year to address correlation in time. We furthermore conducted subgroup analyses by season and natural region. RESULTS: We detected a positive and significant effect of temperature (°C, RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.13, 1.15, adjusted for precipitation) and ENSO (ICEN index: RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.15, 1.20; ONI index: RR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02, 1.07) on outbreak risk, but no evidence of a strong effect for precipitation after adjustment for temperature. Both natural region and season were found to be significant effect modifiers of the ENSO-dengue effect, with the effect of ENSO being stronger in the summer and the Selva Alta and Costa regions, compared with winter and Selva Baja and Sierra regions. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide strong evidence that temperature and ENSO have significant effects on dengue outbreaks in Peru, however these results interact with region and season, and are stronger for local ENSO impacts than remote ENSO impacts. These findings support optimization of a dengue early warning system based on local weather and climate monitoring, including where and when to deploy such a system and parameterization of ENSO events, and provide high-precision effect estimates for future climate and dengue modeling efforts.


Assuntos
Dengue , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Dengue/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Humanos , Peru/epidemiologia
8.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 13310, 2022 08 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35922452

RESUMO

More than one billion people rely on livestock for income, nutrition, and social cohesion, however livestock keeping can facilitate disease transmission and contribute to climate change. While data on the distribution of livestock have broad utility across a range of applications, efforts to map the distribution of livestock on a large scale are limited to the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) project. We present a complimentary effort to map the distribution of cattle and pigs in Malawi, Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Sudan. In contrast to GLW, which uses dasymmetric modeling applied to census data to produce time-stratified estimates of livestock counts and spatial density, our work uses complex survey data and distinct modeling methods to generate a time-series of livestock distribution, defining livestock density as the ratio of animals to humans. In addition to favorable cross-validation results and general agreement with national density estimates derived from external data on national human and livestock populations, our results demonstrate extremely good agreement with GLW-3 estimates, supporting the validity of both efforts. Our results furthermore offer a high-resolution time series result and employ a definition of density which is particularly well-suited to the study of livestock-origin zoonoses.


Assuntos
Renda , Gado , Animais , Bovinos , Humanos , Projetos de Pesquisa , Suínos , Fatores de Tempo , Zoonoses
9.
bioRxiv ; 2022 Feb 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35233573

RESUMO

SARS-CoV-2 is believed to have emerged from an animal reservoir; however, the frequency of and risk factors for inter-species transmission remain unclear. We carried out a community-based study of pets in households with one or more confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans. Among 119 dogs and 57 cats with completed surveys, clinical signs consistent with SARS-CoV-2 were reported in 20 dogs (21%) and 19 cats (39%). Out of 81 dogs and 32 cats sampled for testing, 40% of dogs and 43% of cats were seropositive, and 5% of dogs and 8% of cats were PCR positive; this discordance may be due to delays in sampling. Respondents commonly reported close human-animal contact and willingness to take measures to prevent transmission to their pets. Reported preventative measures showed a slightly protective trend for both illness and seropositivity in pets, while sharing of beds and bowls had slight harmful effects.

10.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 16(8): e0010155, 2022 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36037205

RESUMO

Domestic and wild animals are important reservoirs of the rhodesiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT), however quantification of this effect offers utility for deploying non-medical control activities, and anticipating their success when wildlife are excluded. Further, the uncertain role of animal reservoirs-particularly pigs-threatens elimination of transmission (EOT) targets set for the gambiense form (gHAT). Using a new time series of high-resolution cattle and pig density maps, HAT surveillance data collated by the WHO Atlas of HAT, and methods drawn from causal inference and spatial epidemiology, we conducted a retrospective ecological cohort study in Uganda, Malawi, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and South Sudan to estimate the effect of cattle and pig density on HAT risk. For rHAT, we found a positive effect for cattle (RR 1.61, 95% CI 0.90, 2.99) and pigs (RR 2.07, 95% CI 1.15, 2.75) in Uganda, and a negative effect for cattle (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.71, 1.10) and pigs (RR 0.42, 95% CI 0.23, 0.67) in Malawi. For gHAT we found a negative effect for cattle in Uganda (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.50, 1.77) and South Sudan (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.54, 0.77) but a positive effect in DRC (1.17, 95% CI 1.04, 1.32). For pigs, we found a positive gHAT effect in both Uganda (RR 2.02, 95% CI 0.87, 3.94) and DRC (RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.10, 1.37), and a negative association in South Sudan (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.50, 0.98). These effects did not reach significance for the cattle-rHAT effect in Uganda or Malawi, or the cattle-gHAT and pig-gHAT effects in Uganda. While ecological bias may drive the findings in South Sudan, estimated E-values and simulation studies suggest unmeasured confounding and underreporting are unlikely to explain our findings in Malawi, Uganda, and DRC. Our results suggest cattle and pigs may be important reservoirs of rHAT in Uganda but not Malawi, and that pigs-and possibly cattle-may be gHAT reservoirs.


Assuntos
Trypanosoma brucei gambiense , Tripanossomíase Africana , Animais , Bovinos , Estudos de Coortes , Humanos , Gado , Estudos Retrospectivos , Suínos , Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense , Tripanossomíase Africana/epidemiologia , Tripanossomíase Africana/veterinária , Uganda/epidemiologia
11.
J Int AIDS Soc ; 24(4): e25686, 2021 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33787064

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: HIV retesting during late pregnancy and breastfeeding can help detect new maternal infections and prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT), but the optimal timing and cost-effectiveness of maternal retesting remain uncertain. METHODS: We constructed deterministic models to assess the health and economic impact of maternal HIV retesting on a hypothetical population of pregnant women, following initial testing in pregnancy, on MTCT in four countries: South Africa and Kenya (high/intermediate HIV prevalence), and Colombia and Ukraine (low HIV prevalence). We evaluated six scenarios with varying retesting frequencies from late in antenatal care (ANC) through nine months postpartum. We compared strategies using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) over a 20-year time horizon using country-specific thresholds. RESULTS: We found maternal retesting once in late ANC with catch-up testing through six weeks postpartum was cost-effective in Kenya (ICER = $166 per DALY averted) and South Africa (ICER=$289 per DALY averted). This strategy prevented 19% (Kenya) and 12% (South Africa) of infant HIV infections. Adding one or two additional retests postpartum provided smaller benefits (1 to 2 percentage point increase in infections averted versus one retest). Adding three retests during the postpartum period averted additional infections (1 to 3 percentage point increase in infections averted versus one retest) but ICERs ($7639 and in Kenya and $11 985 in South Africa) greatly exceeded the cost-effectiveness thresholds. In Colombia and Ukraine, all retesting strategies exceeded the cost-effectiveness threshold and prevented few infant infections (up to 31 and 5 infections, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In high HIV burden settings with MTCT rates similar to those seen in Kenya and South Africa, HIV retesting once in late ANC, with subsequent intervention, is the most cost-effective strategy for preventing infant HIV infections. In these settings, two HIV retests postpartum marginally reduced MTCT and were less costly than adding three retests. Retesting in low-burden settings with MTCT rates similar to Colombia and Ukraine was not cost-effective at any time point due to very low HIV prevalence and limited breastfeeding.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Teste de HIV/economia , Transmissão Vertical de Doenças Infecciosas/prevenção & controle , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/diagnóstico , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Teste de HIV/métodos , Humanos , Lactente , Período Pós-Parto , Gravidez , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/epidemiologia , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/prevenção & controle , Prevalência
12.
Lancet Glob Health ; 9(1): e61-e71, 2021 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33227254

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Dual HIV and syphilis testing might help to prevent mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV and syphilis through increased case detection and treatment. We aimed to model and assess the cost-effectiveness of dual testing during antenatal care in four countries with varying HIV and syphilis prevalence. METHODS: In this modelling study, we developed Markov models of HIV and syphilis in pregnant women to estimate costs and infant health outcomes of maternal testing at the first antenatal care visit with individual HIV and syphilis tests (base case) and at the first antenatal care visit with a dual rapid diagnostic test (scenario one). We additionally evaluated retesting during late antenatal care and at delivery with either individual tests (scenario two) or a dual rapid diagnosis test (scenario three). We modelled four countries: South Africa, Kenya, Colombia, and Ukraine. Strategies with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) less than the country-specific cost-effectiveness threshold (US$500 in Kenya, $750 in South Africa, $3000 in Colombia, and $1000 in Ukraine) per disability-adjusted life-year averted were considered cost-effective. FINDINGS: Routinely offering testing at the first antenatal care visit with a dual rapid diagnosis test was cost-saving compared with the base case in all four countries (ICER: -$26 in Kenya,-$559 in South Africa, -$844 in Colombia, and -$454 in Ukraine). Retesting during late antenatal care with a dual rapid diagnostic test (scenario three) was cost-effective compared with scenario one in all four countries (ICER: $270 in Kenya, $260 in South Africa, $2207 in Colombia, and $205 in Ukraine). INTERPRETATION: Incorporating dual rapid diagnostic tests in antenatal care can be cost-saving across countries with varying HIV prevalence. Countries should consider incorporating dual HIV and syphilis rapid diagnostic tests as the first test in antenatal care to support efforts to eliminate MTCT of HIV and syphilis. FUNDING: WHO, US Agency for International Development, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
Análise Custo-Benefício/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/diagnóstico , Diagnóstico Pré-Natal/métodos , Sífilis/diagnóstico , Adulto , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Análise Custo-Benefício/economia , Análise Custo-Benefício/métodos , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/economia , Humanos , Transmissão Vertical de Doenças Infecciosas/economia , Transmissão Vertical de Doenças Infecciosas/prevenção & controle , Quênia/epidemiologia , Cadeias de Markov , Modelos Teóricos , Gravidez , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/economia , Diagnóstico Pré-Natal/economia , Prevalência , África do Sul/epidemiologia , Sífilis/economia , Ucrânia/epidemiologia
13.
Parasite Epidemiol Control ; 5: e00106, 2019 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31061906

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Human and animal African trypanosomiases impose a large economic and health burden in their endemic regions. Large strides have been made in the control of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), yet these efforts have largely focused on the non-zoonotic form of the disease. Using a mathematical model with a 10 year time horizon, we demonstrate the role of the cattle treatment with trypanocides in the epidemiology of zoonotic and non-zoonotic HAT in Uganda, and its potential implications on elimination and eradication of the disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We created two compartmental, deterministic models, each comprised of three sub-models: humans, the tsetse fly vector (Glossina fuscipes fuscipes), and cattle. We applied these models to two HAT foci in Uganda: the gambiense (chronic, non-zoonotic) form in the Northern Region, and the rhodesiense (acute, zoonotic) form in the Eastern Region. Parameters were derived from prior literature or assumed. In both foci we assumed G. fuscipes fuscipes expresses zoophilic biting behavior.With trypanocide treatment of cattle administered every 3 months, treatment in stage I (representing engagement in active or passive surveillance) had a larger impact on HAT burden than cattle treatment coverage. However increasing cattle treatment coverage allowed for further reduction in prevalence in both foci. Using these model parameters, our estimated R0 suggests humans cannot alone sustain the HAT epidemic in Uganda. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Even in the absence of zoonotic transmission, loss of a preferred tsetse host species can affect HAT risk. Thus One Health strategies which integrate HAT and animal African trypanosomiasis control may improve the timeliness and sustainability of gHAT and rHAT elimination and eradication in Uganda. Furthermore, such strategies reduce the burden of a high-morbidity livestock disease of economic importance.

14.
PLoS One ; 14(4): e0215982, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31026290

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Pediatric diarrhea, a leading cause of under-five mortality, is predominantly infectious in etiology. As many putative causal agents are zoonotic, animal exposure is a likely risk factor. To evaluate the effect of animal-related factors on moderate to severe childhood diarrhea in rural Kenya, where animal contact is common, Conan et al. studied 73 matched case-control pairs from 2009-2011, collecting rich exposure data on many dimensions of animal contact. We review the challenges associated with analyzing moderately-sized datasets with a large number of predictors and present two alternative methodological approaches. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a simulation study to demonstrate that forward stepwise selection results in overfit models when data are high-dimensional, and that p values reported directly from the data used to train these models are misleading. We described how automated methods of variable selection, attractive when the number of predictors is large, can result in overadjustment bias. We proposed an alternative a priori regression approach not subject to this bias. Applied to Conan et al.'s data, this approach found a non-significant but positive trend for household's sharing of water sources with livestock or poultry, child's presence for poultry slaughter, and child's habit of playing where poultry sleep or defecate. For many predictors evaluated few pairs were discordant, suggesting matching compromised the power of this analysis. Finally, we proposed latent variable modeling as a complimentary approach and performed Item Response Theory modeling on Conan et al.'s data, with animal contact as the latent trait. We found a moderate but non-significant effect (OR 1.21, 95% CI 0.78, 1.87, unit = 1 standard deviation). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Automated methods of model selection are appropriate for prediction models when fit and evaluated on separate samples. However when the goal is inference, these methods can produce misleading results. Furthermore, case-control matching should be done with caution.


Assuntos
Diarreia/epidemiologia , Animais , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Criança , Simulação por Computador , Fatores de Confusão Epidemiológicos , Humanos , Quênia/epidemiologia , Análise de Classes Latentes , Modelos Biológicos , Análise de Regressão , Fatores de Risco
15.
Transbound Emerg Dis ; 66(5): 2134-2142, 2019 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31168935

RESUMO

Coccidioidomycosis is a predominantly respiratory infection of animals and humans caused by soil-dwelling fungi. Long known to be endemic to North American deserts, locally acquired human cases first emerged in Washington State in 2010. To inform development of an environmental niche map, we conducted an ecological cross-sectional study of the association between soil and climactic variables and canine seroprevalence in Washington State, at the zip code tabulation area level. Soil predictors included soil texture (per cent sand, silt and clay), pH, electrical conductivity and water storage capacity; climactic predictors included mean annual air temperature and liquid precipitation. Clustering was evaluated with Moran's I, and four modelling approaches were adopted a priori: two models without any smoothing (logistic regression and quasi-logistic regression) and two smoothing models (non-spatial and spatial smoothing). No evidence was found for clustering, and both smoothing models resulted in marked attenuation of all coefficients. Temperature was found to have a positive effect in the non-smoothing models (prevalence odds ratio, logistic model: 1.70, 95% confidence interval 1.02, 2.84). While no other significant associations were found, there was suggestive evidence of a positive effect for pH. Despite the limitations inherent to the ecological and cross-sectional nature of these data, these findings provide insight for the development of an environmental niche map in Washington State and demonstrate the utility of using data from an animal sentinel to predict human disease risk.


Assuntos
Clima , Coccidioidomicose/veterinária , Doenças do Cão/epidemiologia , Solo , Animais , Análise por Conglomerados , Coccidioidomicose/epidemiologia , Coccidioidomicose/microbiologia , Estudos Transversais , Doenças do Cão/microbiologia , Cães , Prevalência , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , Washington/epidemiologia
16.
Zoonoses Public Health ; 66(1): 73-82, 2019 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30474360

RESUMO

Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading infectious cause of human death worldwide. In cattle, TB infection results in productivity losses, trade barriers and zoonotic transmission via milk, meat or direct contact. We conducted a cross-sectional study in rural communities in Uganda between 2014 and 2016 to evaluate the association between tuberculosis skin test (TST) positivity in humans and cattle-associated risk factors: household herd positivity and raw milk consumption. Human and cattle TSTs were performed in communities followed by a survey of household practices. TST data were available on 493 humans, 184 (37.3%) with positive results, and 1,441 cattle, 50 (3.5%) with positive results. We fit separate log binomial generalized estimating equation models for the herd positivity-human TST positivity association, stratified on sex; and for the raw milk consumption-human TST positivity association, stratified on frequency of milk consumption. Having at least one TST-positive bovid in the household's herd was significantly associated with lower risk of TB among men (prevalence ratio [PR] 0.66, 95% CI 0.49, 0.87) but was not significantly associated with TB among women (PR 1.21, 95% CI 0.76, 1.95). This apparent protective effect was contrary to our a priori hypothesis of higher exposure effect among men, the primary caretakers of cattle. This finding may be the result of residual confounding by socioeconomic status; wealthier individuals may be less likely to be TB positive, but more likely to have TST-positive herds by virtue of larger herd sizes, ability to purchase new and possibly infected stock, and propensity to keep more TB-susceptible European breeds. For raw milk consumption, effect estimates were close to one and not statistically significant. Thus, in settings where bovine TB prevalence is low, such as Uganda, cattle-associated zoonotic transmission may be rare, and cattle-associated risk factors may not be important drivers of human TB burden.


Assuntos
População Rural , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Adulto , Animais , Bovinos , Estudos Transversais , Reservatórios de Doenças , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Leite , Prevalência , Fatores de Risco , Teste Tuberculínico , Tuberculose/transmissão , Tuberculose Bovina/epidemiologia , Tuberculose Bovina/transmissão , Uganda/epidemiologia
17.
East Afr Health Res J ; 2(1): 67-77, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34308177

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: In Uganda, 70% of rural poor rely on livestock for subsistence, to meet social obligations, and to insure against disaster. Livestock farming in Africa is in a state of transition from traditional management systems toward intensified modern systems, calling into question the future of traditional systems. To inform this debate, we conducted a survey in Moyo District, Uganda, to describe occupational practices and hazards of agropastoralist livestock keepers. METHODS: Household surveys were administered to heads of household (N=49) from July to September 2016. Cross-sectional data were used to generate descriptive statistics for livestock-associated practices and exposures. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and Wald-type 95% confidence intervals for risk factors for injury, defined as any animal-related injury in the household in the past year. Risk factors studied were total number of male animals; number of male cattle, sheep/goats, and pigs; proportion male by herd size; herd size; and castration practices. RESULTS: Adult men perform most livestock-associated tasks, while women, girls, and boys prepare meat, milk cattle, care for poultry, and dispose of waste. While 31 (63%) of households use professional veterinary services and most (n=28, 57.2%) are familiar with zoonoses, 25 (53.2%) do not believe sick animals may look healthy. Over 85.0% (n=41) of respondents routinely wash their hands, while only 31 (64.6%) use soap. Twenty-eight (57.0%) reported using personal protective equipment, while none used gloves or face protection. Most respondents had contact with animal waste "often", and had contact with urine and blood "sometimes". Six (12%) reported a needlestick injury while treating an animal, and 22 (45%) reported at least 1 injury from an animal. No significant association was found between the risk factors studied and animal injury, after adjustment for confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Occupational risks for female and young agropastoralists are distinct from those of men. Contact with potentially infectious material is common and current practices - handwashing without soap and low glove use - do little to prevent zoonotic transmission. While agropastoralists are familiar with zoonoses, subclinical infections may be missed. While no significant risk factors were identified for animal injury, both animal and needlestick injuries are common. As livestock agriculture intensifies, these hazards will become more pronounced; drivers of risk behavior and animal injury must be identified to inform interventions to improve the occupational health of rural livestock keepers in Uganda.

SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA