Increasing instability of a rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem.

Climate change threatens to destabilize ecological communities, potentially moving them from persistently occupied "basins of attraction" to different states. Increasing variation in key ecological processes can signal impending state shifts in ecosystems. In a rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem consisting of three distinct regions spread across 260 km of the Oregon coast, we show that annually cleared sites are characterized by communities that exhibit signs of increasing destabilization (loss of resilience) over the past decade despite persistent community states. In all cases, recovery rates slowed and became more variable over time. The conditions underlying these shifts appear to be external to the system, with thermal disruptions (e.g., marine heat waves, El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and shifts in ocean currents (e.g., upwelling) being the likely proximate drivers. Although this iconic ecosystem has long appeared resistant to stress, the evidence suggests that subtle destabilization has occurred over at least the last decade.

Community theory: Testing environmental stress models.

Intensifying climate change and an increasing need for understanding its impacts on ecological communities places new emphasis on testing environmental stress models (ESMs). Using a prior literature search plus references from a more recent search, I evaluated empirical support for ESMs, focusing on whether consumer pressure on prey decreased (consumer stress model; CSM) or increased (prey stress model; PSM) with increasing environmental stress. Applying the criterion that testing ESMs requires conducting research at multiple sites along environmental stress gradients, the analysis found that CSMs were most frequent, with 'No Effect' and PSMs occurring at low but similar frequencies. This result contrasts to a prior survey in which 'No Effect' studies were most frequent, thus suggesting that consumers are generally more suppressed by stress than prey. Thus, increased climate change-induced environmental stress seems likely to reduce, not increase impacts of consumers on prey more often than the reverse.

Intensification and spatial homogenization of coastal upwelling under climate change.

The timing and strength of wind-driven coastal upwelling along the eastern margins of major ocean basins regulate the productivity of critical fisheries and marine ecosystems by bringing deep and nutrient-rich waters to the sunlit surface, where photosynthesis can occur. How coastal upwelling regimes might change in a warming climate is therefore a question of vital importance. Although enhanced land-ocean differential heating due to greenhouse warming has been proposed to intensify coastal upwelling by strengthening alongshore winds, analyses of observations and previous climate models have provided little consensus on historical and projected trends in coastal upwelling. Here we show that there are strong and consistent changes in the timing, intensity and spatial heterogeneity of coastal upwelling in response to future warming in most Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUSs). An ensemble of climate models shows that by the end of the twenty-first century the upwelling season will start earlier, end later and become more intense at high but not low latitudes. This projected increase in upwelling intensity and duration at high latitudes will result in a substantial reduction of the existing latitudinal variation in coastal upwelling. These patterns are consistent across three of the four EBUSs (Canary, Benguela and Humboldt, but not California). The lack of upwelling intensification and greater uncertainty associated with the California EBUS may reflect regional controls associated with the atmospheric response to climate change. Given the strong linkages between upwelling and marine ecosystems, the projected changes in the intensity, timing and spatial structure of coastal upwelling may influence the geographical distribution of marine biodiversity.

Fundamental contradictions among observational and experimental estimates of non-trophic species interactions.

The difficulty of experimentally quantifying non-trophic species interactions has long troubled ecologists. Increasingly, a new application of the classic "checkerboard distribution" approach is used to infer interactions by examining the pairwise frequency at which species are found to spatially co-occur. However, the link between spatial associations, as estimated from observational co-occurrence, and species interactions has not been tested. Here we used nine common statistical methods to estimate associations from surveys of rocky intertidal communities in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. We compared those inferred associations with a new data set of experimentally determined net and direct species interactions. Although association methods generated networks with aggregate structure similar to previously published interaction networks, each method detected a different set of species associations from the same data set. Moreover, although association methods generally performed better than a random model, associations rarely matched empirical net or direct species interactions, with high rates of false positives and true positives, and many false negatives. Our findings cast doubt on studies that equate species co-occurrences to species interactions and highlight a persistent, unanswered question: how do we interpret spatial patterns in communities? We suggest future research directions to unify the observational and experimental study of species interactions, and discuss the need for community standards and best practices in association analysis.

Generality in multispecies responses to ocean acidification revealed through multiple hypothesis testing.

Decades of research have demonstrated that many calcifying species are negatively affected by ocean acidification, a major anthropogenic threat in marine ecosystems. However, even closely related species may exhibit different responses to ocean acidification and less is known about the drivers that shape such variation in different species. Here, we examine the drivers of physiological performance under ocean acidification in a group of five species of turf-forming coralline algae. Specifically, quantitating the relative weight of evidence for each of ten hypotheses, we show that variation in coralline calcification and photosynthesis was best explained by allometric traits. Across ocean acidification conditions, larger individuals (measured as noncalcified mass) had higher net calcification and photosynthesis rates. Importantly, our approach was able to not only identify the aspect of size that drove the performance of coralline algae, but also determined that responses to ocean acidification were not dependent on species identity, evolutionary relatedness, habitat, shape, or structural composition. In fact, we found that failure to test multiple, alternative hypotheses would underestimate the generality of physiological performances, leading to the conclusion that each species had different baseline performance under ocean acidification. Testing among alternative hypotheses is an essential step toward determining the generalizability of experiments across taxa and identifying common drivers of species responses to global change.

Long-term declines in an intertidal foundation species parallel shifts in community composition.

The earth is in the midst of a biodiversity crisis, and projections indicate continuing and accelerating rates of global changes. Future alterations in communities and ecosystems may be precipitated by changes in the abundance of strongly interacting species, whose disappearance can lead to profound changes in abundance of other species, including an increase in extinction rate for some. Nearshore coastal communities are often dependent on the habitat and food resources provided by foundational plant (e.g., kelp) and animal (e.g., shellfish) species. We quantified changes in the abundance of the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), a foundation species known to influence diversity and productivity of intertidal habitats, over the past 40 years in the Gulf of Maine, USA, one of the fastest warming regions in the global ocean. Using consistent survey methods, we compared contemporary population sizes to historical data from sites spanning >400 km. The results of these comparisons showed that blue mussels have declined in the Gulf of Maine by >60% (range: 29-100%) at the site level since the earliest benchmarks in the 1970s. At the same time as mussels declined, community composition shifted: at the four sites with historical community data, the sessile community became increasingly algal dominated. Contemporary (2013-2014) surveys across 20 sites showed that sessile species richness was positively correlated to mussel abundance in mid to high intertidal zones. These results suggest that declines in a critical foundation species may have already impacted the intertidal community. To inform future conservation efforts, we provide a database of historical and contemporary baselines of mussel population abundance and dynamics in the Gulf of Maine. Our results underscore the importance of anticipating not only changes in diversity but also changes in the abundance and identity of component species, as strong interactors like foundation species have the potential to drive cascading community shifts.

Interacting environmental mosaics drive geographic variation in mussel performance and predation vulnerability.

Although theory suggests geographic variation in species' performance is determined by multiple niche parameters, little consideration has been given to the spatial structure of interacting stressors that may shape local and regional vulnerability to global change. Here, we use spatially explicit mosaics of carbonate chemistry, food availability and temperature spanning 1280 km of coastline to test whether persistent, overlapping environmental mosaics mediate the growth and predation vulnerability of a critical foundation species, the mussel Mytilus californianus. We find growth was highest and predation vulnerability was lowest in dynamic environments with frequent exposure to low pH seawater and consistent food. In contrast, growth was lowest and predation vulnerability highest when exposure to low pH seawater was decoupled from high food availability, or in exceptionally warm locations. These results illustrate how interactions among multiple drivers can cause unexpected, yet persistent geographic mosaics of species performance, interactions and vulnerability to environmental change.

A keystone ecologist: Robert Treat Paine, 1933-2016.

Robert T. Paine, who passed away on 13 June 2016, is among the most influential people in the history of ecology. Paine was an experimentalist, a theoretician, a practitioner, and proponent of the "ecology of place," and a deep believer in the importance of natural history to ecological understanding. His scientific legacy grew from the discovery of a link between top-down forcing and species diversity, a breakthrough that led to the ideas of both keystone species and trophic cascades, and to our early understanding of the mosaic nature of biological communities, causes of zonation across physical gradients, and the intermediate-disturbance hypothesis of species diversity. Paine's influence as a mentor was equally important to the growth of ecological thinking, natural resource conservation, and policy. He served ecology as an Ecological Society of America president, an editor of the Society's journals, a member of and contributor to the National Academy of Sciences and the National Research Council, and an in-demand advisor to various state and federal agencies. Paine's broad interests, enthusiasm, charisma, and humor deeply affected our lives and the lives of so many others.

Are large macroalgal blooms necessarily bad? Nutrient impacts on seagrass in upwelling-influenced estuaries.

Knowledge of nutrient pathways and their resulting ecological interactions can alleviate numerous environmental problems associated with nutrient increases in both natural and managed systems. Although not unique, coastal systems are particularly prone to complex ecological interactions resulting from nutrient inputs from both the land and sea. Nutrient inputs to coastal systems often spur ulvoid macroalgal blooms, with negative consequences for seagrasses, primarily through shading, as well as through changes in local biogeochemistry. We conducted complementary field and mesocosm experiments in an upwelling-influenced estuary, where marine-derived nutrients dominate, to understand the direct and indirect effects of nutrients on the macroalgal-eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) interaction. In the field experiment, we found weak evidence that nutrients and/or macroalgal treatments had a negative effect on eelgrass. However, in the mesocosm experiment, we found that a combination of nutrient and macroalgal treatments led to strongly negative eelgrass responses, primarily via indirect effects associated with macroalgal additions. Together, increased total light attenuation and decreased sediment oxygen levels were associated with larger effects on eelgrass than shading alone, which was evaluated using mimic algae treatments that did not alter sediment redox potential. Nutrient addition in the mesocosms directly affected seagrass density; biomass, and morphology, but not as strongly as macroalgae. We hypothesize that the contrary results from these parallel experiments are a consequence of differences in the hydrodynamics between field and mesocosm settings. We suggest that the high rates of water movement and tidal submersion of our intertidal field experiments alleviated the light reduction and negative biogeochemical changes in the sediment associated with macroalgal canopies, as well as the nutrient effects observed in the mesocosm experiments. Furthermore, adaptation of ulvoids and eelgrass to high, but variable, background nutrient concentrations in upwelling-influenced estuaries may partly explain the venue-specific results reported here. In order to manage critical seagrass habitats, nutrient criteria and macroalgal indicators must consider variability in marine-based nutrient delivery and local physical conditions among estuaries.

Ocean acidification research in the 'post-genomic' era: Roadmaps from the purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus.

Advances in nucleic acid sequencing technology are removing obstacles that historically prevented use of genomics within ocean change biology. As one of the first marine calcifiers to have its genome sequenced, purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) have been the subject of early research exploring genomic responses to ocean acidification, work that points to future experiments and illustrates the value of expanding genomic resources to other marine organisms in this new 'post-genomic' era. This review presents case studies of S. purpuratus demonstrating the ability of genomic experiments to address major knowledge gaps within ocean acidification. Ocean acidification research has focused largely on species vulnerability, and studies exploring mechanistic bases of tolerance toward low pH seawater are comparatively few. Transcriptomic responses to high pCO2 seawater in a population of urchins already encountering low pH conditions have cast light on traits required for success in future oceans. Secondly, there is relatively little information on whether marine organisms possess the capacity to adapt to oceans progressively decreasing in pH. Genomics offers powerful methods to investigate evolutionary responses to ocean acidification and recent work in S. purpuratus has identified genes under selection in acidified seawater. Finally, relatively few ocean acidification experiments investigate how shifts in seawater pH combine with other environmental factors to influence organism performance. In S. purpuratus, transcriptomics has provided insight into physiological responses of urchins exposed simultaneously to warmer and more acidic seawater. Collectively, these data support that similar breakthroughs will occur as genomic resources are developed for other marine species.

Testing effects of bottom-up factors, grazing, and competition on New Zealand rocky intertidal algal communities.

Top-down and bottom-up factors and their interaction highlight the interdependence of resources and consumer impacts on food webs and ecosystems. Variation in the strength of upwelling-mediated ecological controls (i.e., light availability and herbivory) between early and late succession stages is less well understood from the standpoint of influencing algal functional group composition. We experimentally tested the effect of light, grazing, and disturbance on rocky intertidal turf-forming algal communities. Studies were conducted on the South Island of New Zealand at Raramai on the east coast (a persistent downwelling region) and Twelve Mile Beach on the west coast (an intermittent upwelling region). Herbivory, light availability, and algal cover were manipulated and percent cover of major macroalgal functional groups and sessile invertebrates were measured monthly from October 2017 to March 2018. By distinguishing between algal functional groups and including different starting conditions in our design, we found that the mosaic-like pattern of bare rock intermingled with diverse turf-forming algae at Twelve Mile Beach was driven by a complex array of species interactions, including grazing, predation, preemptive competition and interference competition, colonization rates, and these interactions were modulated by light availability and other environmental conditions. Raramai results contrasted with those at Twelve Mile Beach in showing stronger effects of grazing and relatively weak effects of other interactions, low colonization rates of invertebrates, and light effects limited to crustose algae. Our study highlights the potential importance of an upwelling-mediated 3-way interaction among herbivory, light availability, and preemption in structuring contrasting low rocky intertidal macroalgal communities.

Regime shifts in rocky intertidal communities associated with a marine heatwave and disease outbreak.

Long-term, large-scale experimental studies provide critical information about how global change influences communities. When environmental changes are severe, they can trigger abrupt transitions from one community type to another leading to a regime shift. From 2014 to 2016, rocky intertidal habitats in the northeast Pacific Ocean experienced extreme temperatures during a multi-year marine heatwave (MHW) and sharp population declines of the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus due to sea star wasting disease (SSWD). Here we measured the community structure before, during and after the MHW onset and SSWD outbreak in a 15-year succession experiment conducted in a rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem spanning 13 sites on four capes in Oregon and northern California, United States. Kelp abundance declined during the MHW due to extreme temperatures, while gooseneck barnacle and mussel abundances increased due to reduced predation pressure after the loss of Pisaster from SSWD. Using several methods, we detected regime shifts from substrate- or algae-dominated to invertebrate-dominated alternative states at two capes. After water temperatures cooled and Pisaster population densities recovered, community structure differed from pre-disturbance conditions, suggesting low resilience. Consequently, thermal stress and predator loss can result in regime shifts that fundamentally alter community structure even after restoration of baseline conditions.

Resistance of rocky intertidal communities to oceanic climate fluctuations.

A powerful way to predict how ecological communities will respond to future climate change is to test how they have responded to the climate of the past. We used climate oscillations including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and variation in upwelling, air temperature, and sea temperatures to test the sensitivity of nearshore rocky intertidal communities to climate variability. Prior research shows that multiple ecological processes of key taxa (growth, recruitment, and physiology) were sensitive to environmental variation during this time frame. We also investigated the effect of the concurrent sea star wasting disease outbreak in 2013-2014. We surveyed nearly 150 taxa from 11 rocky intertidal sites in Oregon and northern California annually for up to 14-years (2006-2020) to test if community structure (i.e., the abundance of functional groups) and diversity were sensitive to past environmental variation. We found little to no evidence that these communities were sensitive to annual variation in any of the environmental measures, and that each metric was associated with < 8.6% of yearly variation in community structure. Only the years elapsed since the outbreak of sea star wasting disease had a substantial effect on community structure, but in the mid-zone only where spatially dominant mussels are a main prey of the keystone predator sea star, Pisaster ochraceus. We conclude that the established sensitivity of multiple ecological processes to annual fluctuations in climate has not yet scaled up to influence community structure. Hence, the rocky intertidal system along this coastline appears resistant to the range of oceanic climate fluctuations that occurred during the study. However, given ongoing intensification of climate change and increasing frequencies of extreme events, future responses to climate change seem likely.

Transcriptomic responses to ocean acidification in larval sea urchins from a naturally variable pH environment.

Some marine ecosystems already experience natural declines in pH approximating those predicted with future anthropogenic ocean acidification (OA), the decline in seawater pH caused by the absorption of atmospheric CO2 . The molecular mechanisms that allow organisms to inhabit these low pH environments, particularly those building calcium carbonate skeletons, are unknown. Also uncertain is whether an enhanced capacity to cope with present day pH variation will confer resistance to future OA. To address these issues, we monitored natural pH dynamics within an intertidal habitat in the Northeast Pacific, demonstrating that upwelling exposes resident species to pH regimes not predicted to occur elsewhere until 2100. Next, we cultured the progeny of adult purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) collected from this region in CO2 -acidified seawater representing present day and near future ocean scenarios and monitored gene expression using transcriptomics. We hypothesized that persistent exposure to upwelling during evolutionary history will have selected for increased pH tolerance in this population and that their transcriptomic response to low pH seawater would provide insight into mechanisms underlying pH tolerance in a calcifying species. Resulting expression patterns revealed two important trends. Firstly, S. purpuratus larvae may alter the bioavailability of calcium and adjust skeletogenic pathways to sustain calcification in a low pH ocean. Secondly, larvae use different strategies for coping with different magnitudes of pH stress: initiating a robust transcriptional response to present day pH regimes but a muted response to near future conditions. Thus, an enhanced capacity to cope with present day pH variation may not translate into success in future oceans.

Designing effective reserve networks for nonequilibrium metacommunities.

The proliferation of efficient fishing practices has promoted the depletion of commercial stocks around the world and caused significant collateral damage to marine habitats. Recent empirical studies have shown that marine reserves can play an important role in reversing these effects. Equilibrium metapopulation models predict that networks of marine reserves can provide similar benefits so long as individual reserves are sufficiently large to achieve self-sustainability, or spaced based on the extent of dispersal of the target species in order to maintain connectivity between neighboring reserves. However, these guidelines have not been tested in nonequilibrium metacommunity models that exhibit the kinds of complex spatiotemporal dynamics typically seen in natural marine communities. Here, we used a spatially explicit predator-prey model whose predictions have been validated in a marine system to show that current guidelines are not optimal for metacommunities. In equilibrium metacommunities, there is a community-level trade-off for designing effective reserves: Networks whose size and spacing are smaller than the extent of dispersal maximize global predator abundance but minimize global prey abundance because of trophic cascades, whereas the converse is true for reserve networks whose size and spacing are larger than the extent of dispersal. In nonequilibrium metacommunities, reserves whose size and spacing match the extent of spatial autocorrelation in adult abundance (i.e., the extent of patchiness) escape this community-level trade-off by maximizing global abundance and persistence of both the prey and the predator. Overall, these results suggest that using the extent of adult patchiness instead of the extent of larval dispersal as the size and spacing of reserve networks is critical for designing community-based management strategies. By emphasizing patchiness over dispersal distance, our results show how the apparent complexity of nonequilibrium communities can actually simplify management guidelines and reduce uncertainty associated with the assessment of dispersal in marine environments.

Ecological processes can synchronize marine population dynamics over continental scales.

Determining the relative importance of local and regional processes for the distribution of population abundance is a fundamental but contentious issue in ecology. In marine systems, classical theory holds that the influence of demographic processes and dispersal is confined to local populations whereas the environment controls regional patterns of abundance. Here, we use spatial synchrony to compare the distribution of population abundance of the dominant mussel Mytilus californianus observed along the West Coast of the United States to that predicted by dynamical models undergoing different dispersal and environmental treatments to infer the relative influence of local and regional processes. We reveal synchronized fluctuations in the abundance of mussel populations across a whole continent despite limited larval dispersal and strong environmental forcing. We show that dispersal among neighboring populations interacts with local demographic processes to generate characteristic patterns of spatial synchrony that can govern the dynamic distribution of mussel abundance over 1,800 km of coastline. Our study emphasizes the importance of dispersal and local dynamics for the distribution of abundance at the continental scale. It further highlights potential limits to the use of "climate envelope" models for predicting the response of large-scale ecosystems to global climate change.

More than a meal integrating non-feeding interactions into food webs.

Organisms eating each other are only one of many types of well documented and important interactions among species. Other such types include habitat modification, predator interference and facilitation. However, ecological network research has been typically limited to either pure food webs or to networks of only a few (<3) interaction types. The great diversity of non-trophic interactions observed in nature has been poorly addressed by ecologists and largely excluded from network theory. Herein, we propose a conceptual framework that organises this diversity into three main functional classes defined by how they modify specific parameters in a dynamic food web model. This approach provides a path forward for incorporating non-trophic interactions in traditional food web models and offers a new perspective on tackling ecological complexity that should stimulate both theoretical and empirical approaches to understanding the patterns and dynamics of diverse species interactions in nature.

Recruitment facilitation can promote coexistence and buffer population growth in metacommunities.

Although positive species interactions are ubiquitous in nature, theory has generally focused on the role of negative interactions to explain patterns of species diversity. Here, we incorporate recruitment facilitation, a positive interaction prevalent in marine and terrestrial systems, into a metacommunity framework to assess how the interplay between colonisation, competition and facilitation mediates coexistence. We show that when subordinate species facilitate the recruitment of dominant species, multi-species metacommunities can persist stably even if the colonisation rate of the dominant species is greater than that of the subordinate species. In addition, recruitment facilitation can buffer population growth from changes in colonisation rates, and thus explain the paradoxical mismatch between patterns of abundance and recruitment in marine systems. Overall, our results demonstrate that recruitment facilitation can have profound effects on the assembly, dissolution and regulation of metacommunities by mediating the relative influence of local and regional processes on population abundance and species diversity.

Upwelling-driven nearshore hypoxia signals ecosystem and oceanographic changes in the northeast Pacific.

Seasonal development of dissolved-oxygen deficits (hypoxia) represents an acute system-level perturbation to ecological dynamics and fishery sustainability in coastal ecosystems around the globe. Whereas anthropogenic nutrient loading has increased the frequency and severity of hypoxia in estuaries and semi-enclosed seas, the occurrence of hypoxia in open-coast upwelling systems reflects ocean conditions that control the delivery of oxygen-poor and nutrient-rich deep water onto continental shelves. Upwelling systems support a large proportion of the world's fisheries, therefore understanding the links between changes in ocean climate, upwelling-driven hypoxia and ecological perturbations is critical. Here we report on the unprecedented development of severe inner-shelf (<70 m) hypoxia and resultant mass die-offs of fish and invertebrates within the California Current System. In 2002, cross-shelf transects revealed the development of abnormally low dissolved-oxygen levels as a response to anomalously strong flow of subarctic water into the California Current System. Our findings highlight the sensitivity of inner-shelf ecosystems to variation in ocean conditions, and the potential impacts of climate change on marine communities.