HIV testing uptake and retention in care of HIV-infected pregnant and breastfeeding women initiated on 'Option B+' in rural Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVES: Zimbabwe has started to scale up Option B+ for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, but there is little published information about uptake or retention in care. This study determined the number and proportion of pregnant and lactating women in rural districts diagnosed with HIV infection and started on Option B+ along with six-month antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes. METHODS: This was a retrospective record review of women presenting to antenatal care or maternal and child health services at 34 health facilities in Chikomba and Gutu rural districts, Zimbabwe, between January and March 2014. RESULTS: A total of 2728 women presented to care of whom 2598 were eligible for HIV testing: 76% presented to antenatal care, 20% during labour and delivery and 4% while breastfeeding. Of 2097 (81%) HIV-tested women, 7% were HIV positive. Lower HIV testing uptake was found with increasing parity, late presentation to antenatal care, health centre attendance and in women tested during labour. Ninety-one per cent of the HIV-positive women were started on Option B+. Six-month ART retention in care, including transfers, was 83%. Loss to follow-up was the main cause of attrition. Increasing age and gravida status ≥2 were associated with higher six-month attrition. CONCLUSION: The uptake of HIV testing and Option B+ is high in women attending antenatal and post-natal clinics in rural Zimbabwe, suggesting that the strategy is feasible for national scale-up in the country.

Prevalence of Cervical Cancer and Clinical Management of Women Screened positive using visual inspection with acetic acid and Cervicography in selected public sector health facilities of Manicaland and Midlands provinces of Zimbabwe, 2021.

BACKGROUND: Zimbabwe has high cervical cancer (CC) burden of 19% and mortality rate of 64%. Zimbabwe uses Visual Inspection with Acetic Acid and Cervicography (VIAC) for CC screening. Manicaland and Midlands provinces recorded low VIAC positivity of 3% (target 5-25%) and treatment coverage of 78% (target = 90%) between October 2020 and September 2021. OBJECTIVES: We explored VIAC positivity rate and clinical management of clients screening positive in Manicaland and Midlands provinces. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study using routine VIAC and CC management data for period October 2020 to September 2021. Two samples were used, 1) a sample drawn from 48,000 women VIAC screened to measure positivity rate, and 2) a sample of 1,763 VIAC positive women to assess clinical management. Kobo-based tool was used to abstract data from facility registers, and data were analyzed using STATA 15. RESULTS: We analyzed data for 2,454 out of 48,000 women screened through VIAC. About 82% (2,007/2,454) were HIV positive, median ages were 40 and 38 years for HIV positives and negatives respectively. Most (64% and 77%) of HIV positive and negative clients respectively were married. VIAC positivity was 5.9% and 3.4% among HIV positive and negative women screened for the first time, and 3.2% and 5.6% for repeat visits respectively. Overall, 89.1% (1,571/1,763) of VIAC positive women received treatment. Most (41%) of those treated received thermocoagulation. Overall, 43.1% of clients received treatment on VIAC day, and 77.4% within 30 days. Six-month post-treatment coverage was 3.8%. CONCLUSION: VIAC positivity among HIV positive women screening for the first time was 5.9%, within the expected 5-25%. Treatment coverage was high, and turnaround time from diagnosis to treatment met national standards. Post-treatment coverage was suboptimal. We recommend continued implementation of quality improvement initiatives, capacity building of clinicians, and optimization of post-treatment review of clients.

Comparison of HIV Incidence in the Zimbabwe Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Survey (2015-2016) with Modeled Estimates: Progress Toward Epidemic Control.

Between October 2015 and August 2016, Zimbabwe conducted the Zimbabwe Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (ZIMPHIA) cross-sectional survey to determine progress toward epidemic control. Of 25,131 eligible adults aged 15-64 years, 20,577 (81.8%) consented to face-to-face questionnaire and biomarker testing in this nationally representative household survey. Home-based rapid HIV testing was performed using Determine, First Response, and STAT-PAK as the tiebreaker. HIV-positive tests were confirmed in a laboratory using Geenius HIV-1/2; viral load (VL) was measured using Roche TaqMan and BioMerieux NucliSENS. Recency of infection was tested using Sedia HIV-1 Limiting Antigen (LAg)-Avidity. Presence of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs was detected using high performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (HPLC/MS). The recent infection testing algorithm included LAg-avidity enzyme immunoassay [normalized optical density (ODn ≤1.5), VL ≥1,000 copies/mL, and absence of ARV drugs]. Weighted annual HIV incidence was compared with United Nations Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Spectrum models estimates. Overall, 26 of 2,901 HIV-seropositive individuals had a recent infection (men, 8; women, 18). Overall weighted annual incidence among persons aged 15-64 years was 0.42% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.25-0.59] and was 0.44% (95% CI: 0.25-0.62) for those aged 15-49 years, similar to 2016 Spectrum model estimate (0.54%, 95% CI: 0.49-0.66) for this age group. Among persons aged 15-49 years, HIV prevalence was 13.35% (95% CI: 12.71-14.02), estimated HIV-positive individuals were 968,951 (95% CI: 911,473-1,026,430), of these, 41,911 (95% CI: 37,412-44,787) were annual-new infections, and this was similar to 2016 Spectrum estimates. The observed HIV incidence in ZIMPHIA 2015-2016 validated the 2016 Spectrum estimates and Zimbabwe's progress toward epidemic control.

Estimating the Population Size of Female Sex Workers in Zimbabwe: Comparison of Estimates Obtained Using Different Methods in Twenty Sites and Development of a National-Level Estimate.

BACKGROUND: National-level population size estimates (PSEs) for hidden populations are required for HIV programming and modelling. Various estimation methods are available at the site-level, but it remains unclear which are optimal and how best to obtain national-level estimates. SETTING: Zimbabwe. METHODS: Using 2015-2017 data from respondent-driven sampling (RDS) surveys among female sex workers (FSW) aged 18+ years, mappings, and program records, we calculated PSEs for each of the 20 sites across Zimbabwe, using up to 3 methods per site (service and unique object multipliers, census, and capture-recapture). We compared estimates from different methods, and calculated site medians. We estimated prevalence of sex work at each site using census data available on the number of 15-49-year-old women, generated a list of all "hotspot" sites for sex work nationally, and matched sites into strata in which the prevalence of sex work from sites with PSEs was applied to those without. Directly and indirectly estimated PSEs for all hotspot sites were summed to provide a national-level PSE, incorporating an adjustment accounting for sex work outside hotspots. RESULTS: Median site PSEs ranged from 12,863 in Harare to 247 in a rural growth-point. Multiplier methods produced the highest PSEs. We identified 55 hotspots estimated to include 95% of all FSW. FSW nationally were estimated to number 40,491, 1.23% of women aged 15-49 years, (plausibility bounds 28,177-58,797, 0.86-1.79%, those under 18 considered sexually exploited minors). CONCLUSION: There are large numbers of FSW estimated in Zimbabwe. Uncertainty in population size estimation should be reflected in policy-making.

The emerging health impact of voluntary medical male circumcision in Zimbabwe: An evaluation using three epidemiological models.

BACKGROUND: Zimbabwe adopted voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as a priority HIV prevention strategy in 2007 and began implementation in 2009. We evaluated the costs and impact of this VMMC program to date and in future. METHODS: Three mathematical models describing Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic and program evolution were calibrated to household survey data on prevalence and risk behaviors, with circumcision coverage calibrated to program-reported VMMCs. We compared trends in new infections and costs to a counterfactual without VMMC. Input assumptions were agreed in workshops with national stakeholders in 2015 and 2017. RESULTS: The VMMC program averted 2,600-12,200 infections (among men and women combined) by the end of 2016. This impact will grow as circumcised men are protected lifelong, and onward dynamic transmission effects, which protect women via reduced incidence and prevalence in their male partners, increase over time. If other prevention interventions remain at 2016 coverages, the VMMCs already performed will avert 24,400-69,800 infections (2.3-5% of all new infections) through 2030. If coverage targets are achieved by 2021 and maintained, the program will avert 108,000-171,000 infections (10-13% of all new infections) by 2030, costing $2,100-3,250 per infection averted relative to no VMMC. Annual savings from averted treatment needs will outweigh VMMC maintenance costs once coverage targets are reached. If Zimbabwe also achieves ambitious UNAIDS targets for scaling up treatment and prevention efforts, VMMC will reduce the HIV incidence remaining at 2030 by one-third, critically contributing to the UNAIDS goal of 90% incidence reduction. CONCLUSIONS: VMMC can substantially impact Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic in the coming years; this investment will save costs in the longer term.

Cost-effectiveness of public-health policy options in the presence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There is concern over increasing prevalence of non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance in people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-income and middle-income countries. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative public health responses in countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance to NNRTIs is high. METHODS: The HIV Synthesis Model is an individual-based simulation model of sexual HIV transmission, progression, and the effect of ART in adults, which is based on extensive published data sources and considers specific drugs and resistance mutations. We used this model to generate multiple setting scenarios mimicking those in sub-Saharan Africa and considered the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in 2017. We then compared effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative policy options. We took a 20 year time horizon, used a cost effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted, and discounted DALYs and costs at 3% per year. FINDINGS: A transition to use of a dolutegravir as a first-line regimen in all new ART initiators is the option predicted to produce the most health benefits, resulting in a reduction of about 1 death per year per 100 people on ART over the next 20 years in a situation in which more than 10% of ART initiators have NNRTI resistance. The negative effect on population health of postponing the transition to dolutegravir increases substantially with higher prevalence of HIV drug resistance to NNRTI in ART initiators. Because of the reduced risk of resistance acquisition with dolutegravir-based regimens and reduced use of expensive second-line boosted protease inhibitor regimens, this policy option is also predicted to lead to a reduction of overall programme cost. INTERPRETATION: A future transition from first-line regimens containing efavirenz to regimens containing dolutegravir formulations in adult ART initiators is predicted to be effective and cost-effective in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa at any prevalence of pre-ART NNRTI resistance. The urgency of the transition will depend largely on the country-specific prevalence of NNRTI resistance. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, World Health Organization.

Does nonlocal women's attendance at antenatal clinics distort HIV prevalence surveillance estimates in pregnant women in Zimbabwe?

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to assess whether HIV prevalence measured among women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) are representative of prevalence in the local area, or whether estimates may be biased by some women's choice to attend ANCs away from their residential location. We tested the hypothesis that HIV prevalence in towns and periurban areas is underestimated in ANC sentinel surveillance data in Zimbabwe. METHODS: National unlinked anonymous HIV surveillance was conducted at 19 ANCs in Zimbabwe in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2012. This data was used to compare HIV prevalence and nonlocal attendance levels at ANCs at city, town, periurban, and rural clinics in aggregate and also for individual ANCs. RESULTS: In 2000, HIV prevalence at town ANCs (36.6%, 95% CI 34.4-38.9%) slightly underestimated prevalence among urban women attending these clinics (40.7%, 95% CI 37.6-43.9%). However, there was no distortion in HIV prevalence at either the aggregate clinic location or at individual clinics in more recent surveillance rounds. HIV prevalence was consistently higher in towns and periurban areas than in rural areas. Nonlocal attendance was high at town (26-39%) and periurban (53-95%) ANCs but low at city clinics (<10%). However, rural women attending ANCs in towns and periurban areas had higher HIV prevalence than rural women attending rural clinics, and were younger, more likely to be single, and less likely to be housewives. CONCLUSIONS: In Zimbabwe, HIV prevalence among ANC attendees provides reliable estimates of HIV prevalence in pregnant women in the local area.

Empirical validation of the UNAIDS Spectrum model for subnational HIV estimates: case-study of children and adults in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: More cost-effective HIV control may be achieved by targeting geographical areas with high infection rates. The AIDS Impact model of Spectrum - used routinely to produce national HIV estimates - could provide the required subnational estimates but is rarely validated with empirical data, even at a national level. DESIGN: The validity of the Spectrum model estimates were compared with empirical estimates. METHODS: Antenatal surveillance and population survey data from a population HIV cohort study in Manicaland, East Zimbabwe, were input into Spectrum 5.441 to create a simulation representative of the cohort population. Model and empirical estimates were compared for key demographic and epidemiological outcomes. Alternative scenarios for data availability were examined and sensitivity analyses were conducted for model assumptions considered important for subnational estimates. RESULTS: Spectrum estimates generally agreed with observed data but HIV incidence estimates were higher than empirical estimates, whereas estimates of early age all-cause adult mortality were lower. Child HIV prevalence estimates matched well with the survey prevalence among children. Estimated paternal orphanhood was lower than empirical estimates. Including observations from earlier in the epidemic did not improve the HIV incidence model fit. Migration had little effect on observed discrepancies - possibly because the model ignores differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents. CONCLUSION: The Spectrum model, using subnational surveillance and population data, provided reasonable subnational estimates although some discrepancies were noted. Differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents may need to be captured in the model if applied to subnational epidemics.

Factors Associated with Ever Being HIV-Tested in Zimbabwe: An Extended Analysis of the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (2010-2011).

INTRODUCTION: Zimbabwe has a high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) burden. It is therefore important to scale up HIV-testing and counseling (HTC) as a gateway to HIV prevention, treatment and care. OBJECTIVE: To determine factors associated with being HIV-tested among adult men and women in Zimbabwe. METHODS: Secondary analysis was done using data from 7,313 women and 6,584 men who completed interviewer-administered questionnaires and provided blood specimens for HIV testing during the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS) 2010-11. Factors associated with ever being HIV-tested were determined using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: HIV-testing was higher among women compared to men (61% versus 39%). HIV-infected respondents were more likely to be tested compared to those who were HIV-negative for both men [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.53; 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.27-1.84)] and women [AOR = 1.42; 95% CI (1.20-1.69)]. However, only 55% and 74% of these HIV-infected men and women respectively had ever been tested. Among women, visiting antenatal care (ANC) [AOR = 5.48, 95% CI (4.08-7.36)] was the most significant predictor of being tested whilst a novel finding for men was higher odds of testing among those reporting a sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the past 12 months [AOR = 1.86, 95%CI (1.26-2.74)]. Among men, the odds of ever being tested increased with age ≥ 20 years, particularly those 45-49 years [AOR = 4.21; 95% CI (2.74-6.48)] whilst for women testing was highest among those aged 25-29 years [AOR = 2.01; 95% CI (1.63-2.48)]. Other significant factors for both sexes were increasing education level, higher wealth status and currently/formerly being in union. CONCLUSIONS: There remains a high proportion of undiagnosed HIV-infected persons and hence there is a need for innovative strategies aimed at increasing HIV-testing, particularly for men and in lower-income and lower-educated populations. Promotion of STI services can be an important gateway for testing more men whilst ANC still remains an important option for HIV-testing among pregnant women.

Results from implementing updated 2012 World Health Organization Guidance on early-warning indicators of HIV drug resistance in Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the performance of sentinel sites in preventing the emergence of HIVDR using Early Warning Indicators (HIVDR EWI) survey. METHODS: Adult and paediatric patient data on: On time pill pick up, Retention in care, Pharmacy stock-outs, and Dispensing practices was collected. Information from pharmacy registers was verified using facility-held cards. This was a cross-sectional analysis of retrospectively collected data from 72 sites providing both adult and paediatric ART as well as two providing adult ART only. All data were entered into and analysed using a WHO EWI data abstraction electronic tool. RESULTS: Twenty-one percent of sites providing adult and 4.2% of sites providing paediatric ART managed to meet the target for on time pill pick up. Retention in care indicator was met by 48.7% (95% CI: 36.9-60.6) of sites. ARV stock-outs occurred in 81.1% (95% CI: 70-89.3) adult sites and 63.9% (95% CI: 50-78.6) paediatric sites. ARVs were appropriately dispensed by 86.5% (95% CI: 75.6-93.3) of adult sites and 84.7% (95% CI: 74.3-92.1) of paediatric sites. CONCLUSIONS: Most sites had low performance in many indicators in this survey and failed to meet the recommended targets. Some policies such as the current buffer stock and storage outside Harare should be revised in order to improve site access to ARVs. The country should prioritize the provision of viral load testing services in all provinces. The electronic patient management system should be rolled out to all ART sites to improve patient tracking and monitoring by sites.

Pre-treatment drug resistance among patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Zimbabwe: 2008-2010.

BACKGROUND: Zimbabwe set up 12 sentinel sites to monitor HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) following the international standards for prevention of HIVDR from 2008 to 2010. METHODS: Participants were consecutively enrolled. Blood was collected and used for CD4 count, viral load (VL) and pre-treatment DR (PDR) tests besides routine baseline tests. We analyzed the characteristics of participants enrolled into the survey and estimated the point prevalence of PDR and its associated factors among ART initiators in a cross-sectional analysis using the baseline data collected from a prospective cohort in 12 purposefully selected sentinel sites. RESULTS: A total of 1728 participants (96 % response rate) were enrolled and 1610 had complete data. Of the 1610 there were more females (68.7 %) than males (31.3 %). The median CD4 count was 168 cells/mm(3) with males having lower values (P = 0.003). Ninety-six percent of participants had a VL ≥ 1000 copies/ml and the median VL was 128,000. Previous exposure to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) was mainly through PMTCT (5 % of the participants). Overall, PDR mutations were detected in 6.3 % (95 % CI 5.2-7.7) of the 1480 successfully genotyped participants. However, the prevalence of PDR mutations was double for those with previous exposure (12.1 %) to ARVs compared with those without previous exposure (5.7 %, P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The results show a moderate level of PDR prevalence among ART initiators. To maintain the efficacy of the current first-line regimens, there is need to strengthen all HIVDR prevention efforts and to conduct further studies to investigate optimal strategies that can prolong the efficacy of first-line ARV regimens in the country.

A Reevaluation of the Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Scale-Up Plan in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: The voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program in Zimbabwe aims to circumcise 80% of males aged 13-29 by 2017. We assessed the impact of actual VMMC scale-up to date and evaluated the impact of potential alterations to the program to enhance program efficiency, through prioritization of subpopulations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We implemented a recently developed analytical approach: the age-structured mathematical (ASM) model and accompanying three-level conceptual framework to assess the impact of VMMC as an intervention. By September 2014, 364,185 males were circumcised, an initiative that is estimated to avert 40,301 HIV infections by 2025. Through age-group prioritization, the number of VMMCs needed to avert one infection (effectiveness) ranged between ten (20-24 age-group) and 53 (45-49 age-group). The cost per infection averted ranged between $811 (20-24 age-group) and $5,518 (45-49 age-group). By 2025, the largest reductions in HIV incidence rate (up to 27%) were achieved by prioritizing 10-14, 15-19, or 20-24 year old. The greatest program efficiency was achieved by prioritizing 15-24, 15-29, or 15-34 year old. Prioritizing males 13-29 year old was programmatically efficient, but slightly inferior to the 15-24, 15-29, or 15-34 age groups. Through geographic prioritization, effectiveness varied from 9-12 VMMCs per infection averted across provinces. Through risk-group prioritization, effectiveness ranged from one (highest sexual risk-group) to 60 (lowest sexual risk-group) VMMCs per infection averted. CONCLUSION: The current VMMC program plan in Zimbabwe is targeting an efficient and impactful age bracket (13-29 year old), but program efficiency can be improved by prioritizing a subset of males for demand creation and service availability. The greatest program efficiency can be attained by prioritizing young sexually active males and males whose sexual behavior puts them at higher risk for acquiring HIV.