Utilizing electronic health data and machine learning for the prediction of 30-day unplanned readmission or all-cause mortality in heart failure.

Background: Existing risk assessment tools for heart failure (HF) outcomes use structured databases with static, single-timepoint clinical data and have limited accuracy. Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop a comprehensive approach for accurate prediction of 30-day unplanned readmission and all-cause mortality (ACM) that integrates clinical and physiological data available in the electronic health record system. Methods: Three predictive models for 30-day unplanned readmissions or ACM were created using an extreme gradient boosting approach: (1) index admission model; (2) index discharge model; and (3) feature-aggregated model. Performance was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC) metric and compared with that of the HOSPITAL score, a widely used predictive model for hospital readmission. Results: A total of 3774 patients with a primary billing diagnosis of HF were included (614 experienced the primary outcome), with 796 variables used in the admission and discharge models, and 2032 in the feature-aggregated model. The index admission model had AUC = 0.723, the index discharge model had AUC = 0.754, and the feature-aggregated model had AUC = 0.756 for prediction of 30-day unplanned readmission or ACM. For comparison, the HOSPITAL score had AUC = 0.666 (admission model: P = .093; discharge model: P = .022; feature aggregated: P = .012). Conclusion: These models predict risk of HF hospitalizations and ACM in patients admitted with HF and emphasize the importance of incorporating large numbers of variables in machine learning models to identify predictors for future investigation.

Comparing a novel machine learning method to the Friedewald formula and Martin-Hopkins equation for low-density lipoprotein estimation.

BACKGROUND: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a target for cardiovascular prevention. Contemporary equations for LDL-C estimation have limited accuracy in certain scenarios (high triglycerides [TG], very low LDL-C). OBJECTIVES: We derived a novel method for LDL-C estimation from the standard lipid profile using a machine learning (ML) approach utilizing random forests (the Weill Cornell model). We compared its correlation to direct LDL-C with the Friedewald and Martin-Hopkins equations for LDL-C estimation. METHODS: The study cohort comprised a convenience sample of standard lipid profile measurements (with the directly measured components of total cholesterol [TC], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], and TG) as well as chemical-based direct LDL-C performed on the same day at the New York-Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medicine (NYP-WCM). Subsequently, an ML algorithm was used to construct a model for LDL-C estimation. Results are reported on the held-out test set, with correlation coefficients and absolute residuals used to assess model performance. RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2019, there were 17,500 lipid profiles performed on 10,936 unique individuals (4,456 females; 40.8%) aged 1 to 103. Correlation coefficients between estimated and measured LDL-C values were 0.982 for the Weill Cornell model, compared to 0.950 for Friedewald and 0.962 for the Martin-Hopkins method. The Weill Cornell model was consistently better across subgroups stratified by LDL-C and TG values, including TG >500 and LDL-C <70. CONCLUSIONS: An ML model was found to have a better correlation with direct LDL-C than either the Friedewald formula or Martin-Hopkins equation, including in the setting of elevated TG and very low LDL-C.

Identification and Quantification of Cardiovascular Structures From CCTA: An End-to-End, Rapid, Pixel-Wise, Deep-Learning Method.

OBJECTIVES: This study designed and evaluated an end-to-end deep learning solution for cardiac segmentation and quantification. BACKGROUND: Segmentation of cardiac structures from coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) images is laborious. We designed an end-to-end deep-learning solution. METHODS: Scans were obtained from multicenter registries of 166 patients who underwent clinically indicated CCTA. Left ventricular volume (LVV) and right ventricular volume (RVV), left atrial volume (LAV) and right atrial volume (RAV), and left ventricular myocardial mass (LVM) were manually annotated as ground truth. A U-Net-inspired, deep-learning model was trained, validated, and tested in a 70:20:10 split. RESULTS: Mean age was 61.1 ± 8.4 years, and 49% were women. A combined overall median Dice score of 0.9246 (interquartile range: 0.8870 to 0.9475) was achieved. The median Dice scores for LVV, RVV, LAV, RAV, and LVM were 0.938 (interquartile range: 0.887 to 0.958), 0.927 (interquartile range: 0.916 to 0.946), 0.934 (interquartile range: 0.899 to 0.950), 0.915 (interquartile range: 0.890 to 0.920), and 0.920 (interquartile range: 0.811 to 0.944), respectively. Model prediction correlated and agreed well with manual annotation for LVV (r = 0.98), RVV (r = 0.97), LAV (r = 0.78), RAV (r = 0.97), and LVM (r = 0.94) (p < 0.05 for all). Mean difference and limits of agreement for LVV, RVV, LAV, RAV, and LVM were 1.20 ml (95% CI: -7.12 to 9.51), -0.78 ml (95% CI: -10.08 to 8.52), -3.75 ml (95% CI: -21.53 to 14.03), 0.97 ml (95% CI: -6.14 to 8.09), and 6.41 g (95% CI: -8.71 to 21.52), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A deep-learning model rapidly segmented and quantified cardiac structures. This was done with high accuracy on a pixel level, with good agreement with manual annotation, facilitating its expansion into areas of research and clinical import.