Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds.

The critical temperature beyond which photosynthetic machinery in tropical trees begins to fail averages approximately 46.7 °C (Tcrit)1. However, it remains unclear whether leaf temperatures experienced by tropical vegetation approach this threshold or soon will under climate change. Here we found that pantropical canopy temperatures independently triangulated from individual leaf thermocouples, pyrgeometers and remote sensing (ECOSTRESS) have midday peak temperatures of approximately 34 °C during dry periods, with a long high-temperature tail that can exceed 40 °C. Leaf thermocouple data from multiple sites across the tropics suggest that even within pixels of moderate temperatures, upper canopy leaves exceed Tcrit 0.01% of the time. Furthermore, upper canopy leaf warming experiments (+2, 3 and 4 °C in Brazil, Puerto Rico and Australia, respectively) increased leaf temperatures non-linearly, with peak leaf temperatures exceeding Tcrit 1.3% of the time (11% for more than 43.5 °C, and 0.3% for more than 49.9 °C). Using an empirical model incorporating these dynamics (validated with warming experiment data), we found that tropical forests can withstand up to a 3.9 ± 0.5 °C increase in air temperatures before a potential tipping point in metabolic function, but remaining uncertainty in the plasticity and range of Tcrit in tropical trees and the effect of leaf death on tree death could drastically change this prediction. The 4.0 °C estimate is within the 'worst-case scenario' (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) of climate change predictions2 for tropical forests and therefore it is still within our power to decide (for example, by not taking the RCP 6.0 or 8.5 route) the fate of these critical realms of carbon, water and biodiversity3,4.

Impacts of elevated temperature and vapour pressure deficit on leaf gas exchange and plant growth across six tropical rainforest tree species.

Elevated air temperature (Tair) and vapour pressure deficit (VPDair) significantly influence plant functioning, yet their relative impacts are difficult to disentangle. We examined the effects of elevated Tair (+6°C) and VPDair (+0.7 kPa) on the growth and physiology of six tropical tree species. Saplings were grown under well-watered conditions in climate-controlled glasshouses for 6 months under three treatments: (1) low Tair and low VPDair, (2) high Tair and low VPDair, and (3) high Tair and high VPDair. To assess acclimation, physiological parameters were measured at a set temperature. Warm-grown plants grown under elevated VPDair had significantly reduced stomatal conductance and increased instantaneous water use efficiency compared to plants grown under low VPDair. Photosynthetic biochemistry and thermal tolerance (Tcrit) were unaffected by VPDair, but elevated Tair caused Jmax25 to decrease and Tcrit to increase. Sapling biomass accumulation for all species responded positively to an increase in Tair, but elevated VPDair limited growth. This study shows that stomatal limitation caused by even moderate increases in VPDair can decrease productivity and growth rates in tropical species independently from Tair and has important implications for modelling the impacts of climate change on tropical forests.