Bright spots as climate-smart marine spatial planning tools for conservation and blue growth.

Marine spatial planning that addresses ocean climate-driven change ('climate-smart MSP') is a global aspiration to support economic growth, food security and ecosystem sustainability. Ocean climate change ('CC') modelling may become a key decision-support tool for MSP, but traditional modelling analysis and communication challenges prevent their broad uptake. We employed MSP-specific ocean climate modelling analyses to inform a real-life MSP process; addressing how nature conservation and fisheries could be adapted to CC. We found that the currently planned distribution of these activities may become unsustainable during the policy's implementation due to CC, leading to a shortfall in its sustainability and blue growth targets. Significant, climate-driven ecosystem-level shifts in ocean components underpinning designated sites and fishing activity were estimated, reflecting different magnitudes of shifts in benthic versus pelagic, and inshore versus offshore habitats. Supporting adaptation, we then identified: CC refugia (areas where the ecosystem remains within the boundaries of its present state); CC hotspots (where climate drives the ecosystem towards a new state, inconsistent with each sectors' present use distribution); and for the first time, identified bright spots (areas where oceanographic processes drive range expansion opportunities that may support sustainable growth in the medium term). We thus create the means to: identify where sector-relevant ecosystem change is attributable to CC; incorporate resilient delivery of conservation and sustainable ecosystem management aims into MSP; and to harness opportunities for blue growth where they exist. Capturing CC bright spots alongside refugia within protected areas may present important opportunities to meet sustainability targets while helping support the fishing sector in a changing climate. By capitalizing on the natural distribution of climate resilience within ocean ecosystems, such climate-adaptive spatial management strategies could be seen as nature-based solutions to limit the impact of CC on ocean ecosystems and dependent blue economy sectors, paving the way for climate-smart MSP.

Environmental heterogeneity promotes individual specialisation in habitat selection in a widely distributed seabird.

Individual specialisations in behaviour are predicted to arise where divergence benefits fitness. Such specialisations are more likely in heterogeneous environments where there is both greater ecological opportunity and competition-driven frequency dependent selection. Such an effect could explain observed differences in rates of individual specialisation in habitat selection, as it offers individuals an opportunity to select for habitat types that maximise resource gain while minimising competition; however, this mechanism has not been tested before. Here, we use habitat selection functions to quantify individual specialisations while foraging by black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, a marine top predator, at 15 colonies around the United Kingdom and Ireland, along a gradient of environmental heterogeneity. We find support for the hypothesis that individual specialisations in habitat selection while foraging are more prevalent in heterogeneous environments. This trend was significant across multiple dynamic habitat variables that change over short time-scales and did not arise through site fidelity, which highlights the importance of environmental processes in facilitating behavioural adaptation by predators. Individual differences may drive evolutionary processes, and therefore these results suggest that there is broad scope for the degree of environmental heterogeneity to determine current and future population, species and community dynamics.

Current Trends and Challenges for Rapid SMART Diagnostics at Point-of-Site Testing for Marine Toxins.

In the past twenty years marine biotoxin analysis in routine regulatory monitoring has advanced significantly in Europe (EU) and other regions from the use of the mouse bioassay (MBA) towards the high-end analytical techniques such as high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with tandem mass spectrometry (MS). Previously, acceptance of these advanced methods, in progressing away from the MBA, was hindered by a lack of commercial certified analytical standards for method development and validation. This has now been addressed whereby the availability of a wide range of analytical standards from several companies in the EU, North America and Asia has enhanced the development and validation of methods to the required regulatory standards. However, the cost of the high-end analytical equipment, lengthy procedures and the need for qualified personnel to perform analysis can still be a challenge for routine monitoring laboratories. In developing regions, aquaculture production is increasing and alternative inexpensive Sensitive, Measurable, Accurate and Real-Time (SMART) rapid point-of-site testing (POST) methods suitable for novice end users that can be validated and internationally accepted remain an objective for both regulators and the industry. The range of commercial testing kits on the market for marine toxin analysis remains limited and even more so those meeting the requirements for use in regulatory control. Individual assays include enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) and lateral flow membrane-based immunoassays (LFIA) for EU-regulated toxins, such as okadaic acid (OA) and dinophysistoxins (DTXs), saxitoxin (STX) and its analogues and domoic acid (DA) in the form of three separate tests offering varying costs and benefits for the industry. It can be observed from the literature that not only are developments and improvements ongoing for these assays, but there are also novel assays being developed using upcoming state-of-the-art biosensor technology. This review focuses on both currently available methods and recent advances in innovative methods for marine biotoxin testing and the end-user practicalities that need to be observed. Furthermore, it highlights trends that are influencing assay developments such as multiplexing capabilities and rapid POST, indicating potential detection methods that will shape the future market.

Environmental heterogeneity decreases reproductive success via effects on foraging behaviour.

Environmental heterogeneity shapes the uneven distribution of resources available to foragers, and is ubiquitous in nature. Optimal foraging theory predicts that an animal's ability to exploit resource patches is key to foraging success. However, the potential fitness costs and benefits of foraging in a heterogeneous environment are difficult to measure empirically. Heterogeneity may provide higher-quality foraging opportunities, or alternatively could increase the cost of resource acquisition because of reduced patch density or increased competition. Here, we study the influence of physical environmental heterogeneity on behaviour and reproductive success of black-legged kittiwakes, Rissa tridactyla. From GPS tracking data at 15 colonies throughout their British and Irish range, we found that environments that were physically more heterogeneous were associated with longer trip duration, more time spent foraging while away from the colony, increased overlap of foraging areas between individuals and lower breeding success. These results suggest that there is greater competition between individuals for finite resources in more heterogeneous environments, which comes at a cost to reproduction. Resource hotspots are often considered beneficial, as individuals can learn to exploit them if sufficiently predictable. However, we demonstrate here that such fitness gains can be countered by greater competition in more heterogeneous environments.

Ocean-wide tracking of pelagic sharks reveals extent of overlap with longline fishing hotspots.

Overfishing is arguably the greatest ecological threat facing the oceans, yet catches of many highly migratory fishes including oceanic sharks remain largely unregulated with poor monitoring and data reporting. Oceanic shark conservation is hampered by basic knowledge gaps about where sharks aggregate across population ranges and precisely where they overlap with fishers. Using satellite tracking data from six shark species across the North Atlantic, we show that pelagic sharks occupy predictable habitat hotspots of high space use. Movement modeling showed sharks preferred habitats characterized by strong sea surface-temperature gradients (fronts) over other available habitats. However, simultaneous Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking of the entire Spanish and Portuguese longline-vessel fishing fleets show an 80% overlap of fished areas with hotspots, potentially increasing shark susceptibility to fishing exploitation. Regions of high overlap between oceanic tagged sharks and longliners included the North Atlantic Current/Labrador Current convergence zone and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge southwest of the Azores. In these main regions, and subareas within them, shark/vessel co-occurrence was spatially and temporally persistent between years, highlighting how broadly the fishing exploitation efficiently "tracks" oceanic sharks within their space-use hotspots year-round. Given this intense focus of longliners on shark hotspots, our study argues the need for international catch limits for pelagic sharks and identifies a future role of combining fine-scale fish and vessel telemetry to inform the ocean-scale management of fisheries.

Design and operation of a low-cost and compact autonomous buoy system for use in coastal aquaculture and water quality monitoring.

The need to ensure future food security and issues of varying estuarine water quality is driving the expansion of aquaculture into near-shore coastal waters. It is prudent to fully evaluate new or proposed aquaculture sites, prior to any substantial financial investment in infrastructure and staffing. Measurements of water temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen can be used to gain insight into the physical, chemical and biological water quality conditions within a farm site, towards identifying its suitability for farming, both for the stock species of interest and for assessing the potential risk from harmful or toxic algae. The latter can cause closure of shellfish harvesting. Unfortunately, commercial scientific monitoring systems can be cost prohibitive for small organisations and companies to purchase and operate. Here we describe the design, construction and deployment of a low cost (<£ 5000) monitoring buoy suitable for use within a near-shore aquaculture farm or bathing waters. The mooring includes a suite of sensors designed for supporting and understanding variations in near-shore physical, chemical and biological water quality. The system has been designed so that it can be operated and maintained by non-scientific staff, whilst still providing good quality scientific data. Data collected from two deployments totalling 14 months, one in a coastal bay location, another in an estuary, have illustrated the robust design and provided insight into the suitability of these sites for aquaculture and the potential occurrence of a toxin causing algae (Dinophysis spp.). The instruments maintained good accuracy during the deployments when compared to independent in situ measurements (e.g. RMSE 0.13-0.16 °C, bias 0.03-0.08 °C) enabling stratification and biological features to be identified, along with confirming that the waters were suitable for mussel (Mytilus spp.) and lobster (Homarus gammarus) aquaculture, whilst sites showed conditions agreeable for Dinophysis spp.

Breeding density, fine-scale tracking, and large-scale modeling reveal the regional distribution of four seabird species.

Population-level estimates of species' distributions can reveal fundamental ecological processes and facilitate conservation. However, these may be difficult to obtain for mobile species, especially colonial central-place foragers (CCPFs; e.g., bats, corvids, social insects), because it is often impractical to determine the provenance of individuals observed beyond breeding sites. Moreover, some CCPFs, especially in the marine realm (e.g., pinnipeds, turtles, and seabirds) are difficult to observe because they range tens to ten thousands of kilometers from their colonies. It is hypothesized that the distribution of CCPFs depends largely on habitat availability and intraspecific competition. Modeling these effects may therefore allow distributions to be estimated from samples of individual spatial usage. Such data can be obtained for an increasing number of species using tracking technology. However, techniques for estimating population-level distributions using the telemetry data are poorly developed. This is of concern because many marine CCPFs, such as seabirds, are threatened by anthropogenic activities. Here, we aim to estimate the distribution at sea of four seabird species, foraging from approximately 5,500 breeding sites in Britain and Ireland. To do so, we GPS-tracked a sample of 230 European Shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis, 464 Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, 178 Common Murres Uria aalge, and 281 Razorbills Alca torda from 13, 20, 12, and 14 colonies, respectively. Using Poisson point process habitat use models, we show that distribution at sea is dependent on (1) density-dependent competition among sympatric conspecifics (all species) and parapatric conspecifics (Kittiwakes and Murres); (2) habitat accessibility and coastal geometry, such that birds travel further from colonies with limited access to the sea; and (3) regional habitat availability. Using these models, we predict space use by birds from unobserved colonies and thereby map the distribution at sea of each species at both the colony and regional level. Space use by all four species' British breeding populations is concentrated in the coastal waters of Scotland, highlighting the need for robust conservation measures in this area. The techniques we present are applicable to any CCPF.

Long-term individual foraging site fidelity--why some gannets don't change their spots.

Many established models of animal foraging assume that individuals are ecologically equivalent. However, it is increasingly recognized that populations may comprise individuals who differ consistently in their diets and foraging behaviors. For example, recent studies have shown that individual foraging site fidelity (IFSF, when individuals consistently forage in only a small part of their population's home range) occurs in some colonial breeders. Short-term IFSF could result from animals using a win-stay, lose-shift foraging strategy. Alternatively, it may be a consequence of individual specialization. Pelagic seabirds are colonial central-place foragers, classically assumed to use flexible foraging strategies to target widely dispersed, spatiotemporally patchy prey. However, tracking has shown that IFSF occurs in many seabirds, although it is not known whether this persists across years. To test for long-term IFSF and to examine alternative hypotheses concerning its cause, we repeatedly tracked 55 Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus) from a large colony in the North Sea within and across three successive breeding seasons. Gannets foraged in neritic waters, predictably structured by tidal mixing and thermal stratification, but subject to stochastic, wind-induced overturning. Both within and across years, coarse to mesoscale (tens of kilometers) IFSF was significant but not absolute, and foraging birds departed the colony in individually consistent directions. Carbon stable isotope ratios in gannet blood tissues were repeatable within years and nitrogen ratios were also repeatable across years, suggesting long-term individual dietary specialization. Individuals were also consistent across years in habitat use with respect to relative sea surface temperature and in some dive metrics, yet none of these factors accounted for IFSF. Moreover, at the scale of weeks, IFSF did not decay over time and the magnitude of IFSF across years was similar to that within years, suggesting that IFSF is not primarily the result of win-stay, lose-shift foraging. Rather, we hypothesize that site familiarity, accrued early in-life, causes IFSF by canalizing subsequent foraging decisions. Evidence from this and other studies suggests that IFSF may be common in colonial central-place foragers, with far-reaching consequences for our attempts to understand and conserve these animals in a rapidly changing environment.

Challenges and difficulties in assessing the environmental status under the requirements of the Ecosystem Approach in North African countries, illustrated by eutrophication assessment.

Marine ecosystems provide many ecosystem goods and services. However, these ecosystems and the benefits they create for humans are subject to competing uses and increasing pressures. As a consequence of the increasing threats to the marine environment, several regulations require applying an ecosystem-based approach for managing the marine environment. Within the Mediterranean Sea, in 2008, the Contracting Parties of the Mediterranean Action Plan decided to progressively apply the Ecosystem Approach (EcAp) with the objective of achieving Good Environmental Status (GES) for 2018. To assess the environmental status, the EcAp proposes 11 Ecological Objectives, each of which requires a set of relevant indicators to be integrated. Progress towards the EcAp entails a gradual and important challenge for North African countries, and efforts have to be initiated to propose and discuss methods. Accordingly, to enhance the capacity of North African countries to implement EcAp and particularly to propose and discuss indicators and methods to assess GES, the aim of this manuscript is to identify the practical problems and gaps found at each stage of the environmental status assessment process. For this purpose, a stepwise method has been proposed to assess the environmental status using Ecologic Objective 5-Eutrophication as example.

Multi-spatiotemporal analysis of changes in mangrove forests in Palawan, Philippines: predicting future trends using a support vector machine algorithm and the Markov chain model.

Multi-temporal remote sensing imagery can be used to explore how mangrove assemblages are changing over time and facilitate critical interventions for ecological sustainability and effective management. This study aims to explore the spatial dynamics of mangrove extents in Palawan, Philippines, specifically in Puerto Princesa City, Taytay and Aborlan, and facilitate future predictions for Palawan using the Markov Chain model. The multi-date Landsat imageries during the period 1988-2020 were used for this research. The support vector machine algorithm was sufficiently effective for mangrove feature extraction to generate satisfactory accuracy results (>70% kappa coefficient values; 91% average overall accuracies). In Palawan, a 5.2% (2693 ha) decrease was recorded during 1988-1998 and an 8.6% increase in 2013-2020 to 4371 ha. In Puerto Princesa City, a 95.9% (2758 ha) increase was observed during 1988-1998 and 2.0% (136 ha) decrease during 2013-2020. The mangroves in Taytay and Aborlan both gained an additional 2138 ha (55.3%) and 228 ha (16.8%) during 1988-1998 but also decreased from 2013 to 2020 by 3.4% (247 ha) and 0.2% (3 ha), respectively. However, projected results suggest that the mangrove areas in Palawan will likely increase in 2030 (to 64,946 ha) and 2050 (to 66,972 ha). This study demonstrated the capability of the Markov chain model in the context of ecological sustainability involving policy intervention. However, as this research did not capture the environmental factors that may have influenced the changes in mangrove patterns, it is suggested adding cellular automata in future Markovian mangrove modelling.

Development and validation of a molecular technique for the analysis of archived formalin-preserved phytoplankton samples permits retrospective assessment of Emiliania huxleyi communities.

The coccolithophores, particularly the species Emiliania huxleyi (Lohmann) Hay & Mohler, account for the bulk of global calcium carbonate production and as such play a fundamental role in global CO2 cycling and the carbonate chemistry of the oceans. To evaluate the response of this functional group to the effects of climate change, we undertook a feasibility study to determine whether a retrospective approach could be used on archived coccolithophore datasets. We demonstrate for the first time a technique for the extraction of E. huxleyi nucleic acids from archived formalin-fixed samples of the long-term Continuous Plankton Recorder. Molecular analysis of a nine year old formalin-fixed sample reveals the presence of a diverse population of E. huxleyi genotypes within a developing coccolithophore bloom. In addition, E. huxleyi sequences were amplified from a number of formalin-fixed samples, the earliest of which was collected in August 1972. This molecular assay promises the possibility of studying global variations in the distribution and genetic make-up of E. huxleyi communities over extensive periods of time.

A generic approach for the development of short-term predictions of Escherichia coli and biotoxins in shellfish.

Microbiological contamination or elevated marine biotoxin concentrations within shellfish can result in temporary closure of shellfish aquaculture harvesting, leading to financial loss for the aquaculture business and a potential reduction in consumer confidence in shellfish products. We present a method for predicting short-term variations in shellfish concentrations of Escherichia coli and biotoxin (okadaic acid and its derivates dinophysistoxins and pectenotoxins). The approach was evaluated for 2 contrasting shellfish harvesting areas. Through a meta-data analysis and using environmental data (in situ, satellite observations and meteorological nowcasts and forecasts), key environmental drivers were identified and used to develop models to predict E. coli and biotoxin concentrations within shellfish. Models were trained and evaluated using independent datasets, and the best models were identified based on the model exhibiting the lowest root mean square error. The best biotoxin model was able to provide 1 wk forecasts with an accuracy of 86%, a 0% false positive rate and a 0% false discovery rate (n = 78 observations) when used to predict the closure of shellfish beds due to biotoxin. The best E. coli models were used to predict the European hygiene classification of the shellfish beds to an accuracy of 99% (n = 107 observations) and 98% (n = 63 observations) for a bay (St Austell Bay) and an estuary (Turnaware Bar), respectively. This generic approach enables high accuracy short-term farm-specific forecasts, based on readily accessible environmental data and observations.

Environmental control of harmful dinoflagellates and diatoms in a fjordic system.

Fjordic coastlines provide an ideal protected environment for both finfish and shellfish aquaculture operations. This study reports the results of a cruise to the Scottish Clyde Sea, and associated fjordic sea lochs, that coincided with blooms of the diarrhetic shellfish toxin producing dinoflagellate Dinophysis acuta and the diatom genus Chaetoceros, that can generate finfish mortalities. Unusually, D. acuta reached one order of magnitude higher cell abundance in the water column (2840cellsL-1) than the more common Dinophysis acuminata (200cellsL-1) and was linked with elevated shellfish toxicity (maximum 601±237µg OA eq/kg shellfish flesh) which caused shellfish harvesting closures in the region. Significant correlations between D. acuta abundance and that of Mesodinium rubrum were also observed across the cruise transect potentially supporting bloom formation of the mixotrophic D. acuta. Significant spatial variability in phytoplankton that was related to physical characteristics of the water column was observed, with a temperature-driven frontal region at the mouth of Loch Fyne being important in the development of the D. acuta, but not the Chaetoceros bloom. The front also provided important protection to the aquaculture located within the loch, with neither of the blooms encroaching within it. Analysis based on a particle-tracking model confirms the importance of the front to cell transport and shows significant inter-annual differences in advection within the region, that are important to the harmful algal bloom risk therein.

How many Coccolithovirus genotypes does it take to terminate an Emiliania huxleyi bloom?

Giant viruses are known to be significant mortality agents of phytoplankton, often being implicated in the terminations of large Emiliania huxleyi blooms. We have previously shown the high temporal variability of E. huxleyi-infecting coccolithoviruses (EhVs) within a Norwegian fjord mesocosm. In the current study we investigated EhV dynamics within a naturally-occurring E. huxleyi bloom in the Western English Channel. Using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and marker gene sequencing, we uncovered a spatially highly dynamic Coccolithovirus population that was associated with a genetically stable E. huxleyi population as revealed by the major capsid protein gene (mcp) and coccolith morphology motif (CMM), respectively. Coccolithoviruses within the bloom were found to be variable with depth and unique virus populations were detected at different stations sampled indicating a complex network of EhV-host infections. This ultimately will have significant implications to the internal structure and longevity of ecologically important E. huxleyi blooms.

Mesoscale fronts as foraging habitats: composite front mapping reveals oceanographic drivers of habitat use for a pelagic seabird.

The oceanographic drivers of marine vertebrate habitat use are poorly understood yet fundamental to our knowledge of marine ecosystem functioning. Here, we use composite front mapping and high-resolution GPS tracking to determine the significance of mesoscale oceanographic fronts as physical drivers of foraging habitat selection in northern gannets Morus bassanus. We tracked 66 breeding gannets from a Celtic Sea colony over 2 years and used residence time to identify area-restricted search (ARS) behaviour. Composite front maps identified thermal and chlorophyll-a mesoscale fronts at two different temporal scales-(i) contemporaneous fronts and (ii) seasonally persistent frontal zones. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), with generalized estimating equations (GEE-GAMs) to account for serial autocorrelation in tracking data, we found that gannets do not adjust their behaviour in response to contemporaneous fronts. However, ARS was more likely to occur within spatially predictable, seasonally persistent frontal zones (GAMs). Our results provide proof of concept that composite front mapping is a useful tool for studying the influence of oceanographic features on animal movements. Moreover, we highlight that frontal persistence is a crucial element of the formation of pelagic foraging hotspots for mobile marine vertebrates.

Ecohydrodynamics of cold-water coral reefs: a case study of the Mingulay Reef Complex (western Scotland).

Ecohydrodynamics investigates the hydrodynamic constraints on ecosystems across different temporal and spatial scales. Ecohydrodynamics play a pivotal role in the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems, however the lack of integrated complex flow models for deep-water ecosystems beyond the coastal zone prevents further synthesis in these settings. We present a hydrodynamic model for one of Earth's most biologically diverse deep-water ecosystems, cold-water coral reefs. The Mingulay Reef Complex (western Scotland) is an inshore seascape of cold-water coral reefs formed by the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa. We applied single-image edge detection and composite front maps using satellite remote sensing, to detect oceanographic fronts and peaks of chlorophyll a values that likely affect food supply to corals and other suspension-feeding fauna. We also present a high resolution 3D ocean model to incorporate salient aspects of the regional and local oceanography. Model validation using in situ current speed, direction and sea elevation data confirmed the model's realistic representation of spatial and temporal aspects of circulation at the reef complex including a tidally driven current regime, eddies, and downwelling phenomena. This novel combination of 3D hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing in deep-water ecosystems improves our understanding of the temporal and spatial scales of ecological processes occurring in marine systems. The modelled information has been integrated into a 3D GIS, providing a user interface for visualization and interrogation of results that allows wider ecological application of the model and that can provide valuable input for marine biodiversity and conservation applications.

Does presence of a mid-ocean ridge enhance biomass and biodiversity?

In contrast to generally sparse biological communities in open-ocean settings, seamounts and ridges are perceived as areas of elevated productivity and biodiversity capable of supporting commercial fisheries. We investigated the origin of this apparent biological enhancement over a segment of the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) using sonar, corers, trawls, traps, and a remotely operated vehicle to survey habitat, biomass, and biodiversity. Satellite remote sensing provided information on flow patterns, thermal fronts, and primary production, while sediment traps measured export flux during 2007-2010. The MAR, 3,704,404 km(2) in area, accounts for 44.7% lower bathyal habitat (800-3500 m depth) in the North Atlantic and is dominated by fine soft sediment substrate (95% of area) on a series of flat terraces with intervening slopes either side of the ridge axis contributing to habitat heterogeneity. The MAR fauna comprises mainly species known from continental margins with no evidence of greater biodiversity. Primary production and export flux over the MAR were not enhanced compared with a nearby reference station over the Porcupine Abyssal Plain. Biomasses of benthic macrofauna and megafauna were similar to global averages at the same depths totalling an estimated 258.9 kt C over the entire lower bathyal north MAR. A hypothetical flat plain at 3500 m depth in place of the MAR would contain 85.6 kt C, implying an increase of 173.3 kt C attributable to the presence of the Ridge. This is approximately equal to 167 kt C of estimated pelagic biomass displaced by the volume of the MAR. There is no enhancement of biological productivity over the MAR; oceanic bathypelagic species are replaced by benthic fauna otherwise unable to survive in the mid ocean. We propose that globally sea floor elevation has no effect on deep sea biomass; pelagic plus benthic biomass is constant within a given surface productivity regime.