RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: There are limited studies in Latin America regarding the chronic consequences of the Chikungunya virus (CHIK), such as post-CHIK chronic inflammatory rheumatism (pCHIK-CIR). We assessed the largest cohort so far of pCHIK-CIR in Latin America, at the municipality of La Virginia, Risaralda, a new endemic area of CHIK in Colombia. METHODS: We conducted a cohort retrospective study in Colombia of 283 patients diagnosed with CHIK that persisted with pCHIK-CIR after a minimum of 6 weeks and up to a maximum of 26.1 weeks. pCHIK cases were identified according to validated criteria via telephone. RESULTS: Of the total CHIK-infected subjects, 152 (53.7%) reported persistent rheumatological symptoms (pCHIK-CIR). All of these patients reported joint pains (chronic polyarthralgia, pCHIK-CPA), 49.5% morning stiffness, 40.6% joint edema, and 16.6% joint redness. Of all patients, 19.4% required and attended for care prior to the current study assessment (1.4% consulting rheumatologists). Significant differences in the frequency were observed according to age groups and gender. Patients aged >40 years old required more medical attention (39.5%) than those ≤40 years-old (12.1%) (RR=4.748, 95%CI 2.550-8.840). CONCLUSIONS: According to our results, at least half of the patients with CHIK developed chronic rheumatologic sequelae, and from those with pCHIK-CPA, nearly half presented clinical symptoms consistent with inflammatory forms of the disease. These results support previous estimates obtained from pooled data of studies in La Reunion (France) and India and are consistent with the results published previously from other Colombian cohorts in Venadillo (Tolima) and Since (Sucre).
RESUMO
Dengue continues to be the most important viral vector-borne disease in the world, particularly in Asia and Latin America, and is significantly affected by climate variability. The influence of climate in an endemic region of Colombia, from 2010 to 2011, was assessed. Epidemiological surveillance data (weekly cases) were collected, and incidence rates were calculated. Poisson regression models were used to assess the influence of the macroclimatic variable ONI (Oscillation Niño Index) and the microclimatic variable pluviometry (mm of rain for Risaralda) on the dengue incidence rate, adjusting by year and week. During the study period, 13,650 cases were reported. In 2010, the rates ranged from 8.6 cases/100,000 pop. up to a peak of 75.3 cases/100,000 pop. for a cumulative rate of 456.2 cases/100,000 pop. in that week. The climate variability in 2010 was higher (ONI 1.6, El Niño to -1.5, La Niña) than in 2011 (ONI -1.4, La Niña to -0.2, Neutral). The mean pluviometry was 248.45mm (min 135.9-max 432.84). During El Niño, cases were significantly higher (mean 433.81) than during the climate neutral period (142.48) and during the La Niña (52.80) phases (ANOVA F=66.59; p<0.001). Regression models showed that the ONI (coefficient 0.329; 95%CI 0.209-0.450) and pluviometry (coefficient 0.003; 95%CI 0.002-0.004) were highly significant independent variables associated with dengue incidence rate, after adjusting by year and week (p<0.001, pseudo r(2)=0.6913). El Niño significantly affected the incidence of dengue in Risaralda. This association with climate change and variability should be considered in the elements influencing disease epidemiology. In addition, predictive models should be developed further with more available data from disease surveillance.