Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas.

Detailed characterization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission across different settings can help design less disruptive interventions. We used real-time, privacy-enhanced mobility data in the New York City, NY and Seattle, WA metropolitan areas to build a detailed agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 infection to estimate the where, when, and magnitude of transmission events during the pandemic's first wave. We estimate that only 18% of individuals produce most infections (80%), with about 10% of events that can be considered superspreading events (SSEs). Although mass gatherings present an important risk for SSEs, we estimate that the bulk of transmission occurred in smaller events in settings like workplaces, grocery stores, or food venues. The places most important for transmission change during the pandemic and are different across cities, signaling the large underlying behavioral component underneath them. Our modeling complements case studies and epidemiological data and indicates that real-time tracking of transmission events could help evaluate and define targeted mitigation policies.

Toward understanding the impact of artificial intelligence on labor.

Rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation technologies have the potential to significantly disrupt labor markets. While AI and automation can augment the productivity of some workers, they can replace the work done by others and will likely transform almost all occupations at least to some degree. Rising automation is happening in a period of growing economic inequality, raising fears of mass technological unemployment and a renewed call for policy efforts to address the consequences of technological change. In this paper we discuss the barriers that inhibit scientists from measuring the effects of AI and automation on the future of work. These barriers include the lack of high-quality data about the nature of work (e.g., the dynamic requirements of occupations), lack of empirically informed models of key microlevel processes (e.g., skill substitution and human-machine complementarity), and insufficient understanding of how cognitive technologies interact with broader economic dynamics and institutional mechanisms (e.g., urban migration and international trade policy). Overcoming these barriers requires improvements in the longitudinal and spatial resolution of data, as well as refinements to data on workplace skills. These improvements will enable multidisciplinary research to quantitatively monitor and predict the complex evolution of work in tandem with technological progress. Finally, given the fundamental uncertainty in predicting technological change, we recommend developing a decision framework that focuses on resilience to unexpected scenarios in addition to general equilibrium behavior.

Analyzing gender inequality through large-scale Facebook advertising data.

Online social media are information resources that can have a transformative power in society. While the Web was envisioned as an equalizing force that allows everyone to access information, the digital divide prevents large amounts of people from being present online. Online social media, in particular, are prone to gender inequality, an important issue given the link between social media use and employment. Understanding gender inequality in social media is a challenging task due to the necessity of data sources that can provide large-scale measurements across multiple countries. Here, we show how the Facebook Gender Divide (FGD), a metric based on aggregated statistics of more than 1.4 billion users in 217 countries, explains various aspects of worldwide gender inequality. Our analysis shows that the FGD encodes gender equality indices in education, health, and economic opportunity. We find gender differences in network externalities that suggest that using social media has an added value for women. Furthermore, we find that low values of the FGD are associated with increases in economic gender equality. Our results suggest that online social networks, while suffering evident gender imbalance, may lower the barriers that women have to access to informational resources and help to narrow the economic gender gap.

Accuracy-Risk Trade-Off Due to Social Learning in Crowd-Sourced Financial Predictions.

A critical question relevant to the increasing importance of crowd-sourced-based finance is how to optimize collective information processing and decision-making. Here, we investigate an often under-studied aspect of the performance of online traders: beyond focusing on just accuracy, what gives rise to the trade-off between risk and accuracy at the collective level? Answers to this question will lead to designing and deploying more effective crowd-sourced financial platforms and to minimizing issues stemming from risk such as implied volatility. To investigate this trade-off, we conducted a large online Wisdom of the Crowd study where 2037 participants predicted the prices of real financial assets (S&P 500, WTI Oil and Gold prices). Using the data collected, we modeled the belief update process of participants using models inspired by Bayesian models of cognition. We show that subsets of predictions chosen based on their belief update strategies lie on a Pareto frontier between accuracy and risk, mediated by social learning. We also observe that social learning led to superior accuracy during one of our rounds that occurred during the high market uncertainty of the Brexit vote.

Limits of social mobilization.

The Internet and social media have enabled the mobilization of large crowds to achieve time-critical feats, ranging from mapping crises in real time, to organizing mass rallies, to conducting search-and-rescue operations over large geographies. Despite significant success, selection bias may lead to inflated expectations of the efficacy of social mobilization for these tasks. What are the limits of social mobilization, and how reliable is it in operating at these limits? We build on recent results on the spatiotemporal structure of social and information networks to elucidate the constraints they pose on social mobilization. We use the DARPA Network Challenge as our working scenario, in which social media were used to locate 10 balloons across the United States. We conduct high-resolution simulations for referral-based crowdsourcing and obtain a statistical characterization of the population recruited, geography covered, and time to completion. Our results demonstrate that the outcome is plausible without the presence of mass media but lies at the limit of what time-critical social mobilization can achieve. Success relies critically on highly connected individuals willing to mobilize people in distant locations, overcoming the local trapping of diffusion in highly dense areas. However, even under these highly favorable conditions, the risk of unsuccessful search remains significant. These findings have implications for the design of better incentive schemes for social mobilization. They also call for caution in estimating the reliability of this capability.

Temporal clustering of social interactions trades-off disease spreading and knowledge diffusion.

Non-pharmaceutical measures such as preventive quarantines, remote working, school and workplace closures, lockdowns, etc. have shown effectiveness from an epidemic control perspective; however, they have also significant negative consequences on social life and relationships, work routines and community engagement. In particular, complex ideas, work and school collaborations, innovative discoveries and resilient norms formation and maintenance, which often require face-to-face interactions of two or more parties to be developed and synergically coordinated, are particularly affected. In this study, we propose an alternative hybrid solution that balances the slowdown of epidemic diffusion with the preservation of face-to-face interactions, that we test simulating a disease and a knowledge spreading simultaneously on a network of contacts. Our approach involves a two-step partitioning of the population. First, we tune the level of node clustering, creating 'social bubbles' with increased contacts within each bubble and fewer outside, while maintaining the average number of contacts in each network. Second, we tune the level of temporal clustering by pairing, for a certain time interval, nodes from specific social bubbles. Our results demonstrate that a hybrid approach can achieve better trade-offs between epidemic control and complex knowledge diffusion. The versatility of our model enables tuning and refining clustering levels to optimally achieve the desired trade-off, based on the potentially changing characteristics of a disease or knowledge diffusion process.

YJMob100K: City-scale and longitudinal dataset of anonymized human mobility trajectories.

Modeling and predicting human mobility trajectories in urban areas is an essential task for various applications including transportation modeling, disaster management, and urban planning. The recent availability of large-scale human movement data collected from mobile devices has enabled the development of complex human mobility prediction models. However, human mobility prediction methods are often trained and tested on different datasets, due to the lack of open-source large-scale human mobility datasets amid privacy concerns, posing a challenge towards conducting transparent performance comparisons between methods. To this end, we created an open-source, anonymized, metropolitan scale, and longitudinal (75 days) dataset of 100,000 individuals' human mobility trajectories, using mobile phone location data provided by Yahoo Japan Corporation (currently renamed to LY Corporation), named YJMob100K. The location pings are spatially and temporally discretized, and the metropolitan area is undisclosed to protect users' privacy. The 90-day period is composed of 75 days of business-as-usual and 15 days during an emergency, to test human mobility predictability during both normal and anomalous situations.

Effect of mobile food environments on fast food visits.

Poor diets are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Exposure to low-quality food environments saturated with fast food outlets is hypothesized to negatively impact diet. However, food environment research has predominantly focused on static food environments around home neighborhoods and generated mixed findings. In this work, we leverage population-scale mobility data in the U.S. to examine 62M people's visits to food outlets and evaluate how food choice is influenced by the food environments people are exposed to as they move through their daily routines. We find that a 10% increase in exposure to fast food outlets in mobile environments increases individuals' odds of visitation by 20%. Using our results, we simulate multiple policy strategies for intervening on food environments to reduce fast-food outlet visits. This analysis suggests that optimal interventions are informed by spatial, temporal, and behavioral features and could have 2x to 4x larger effect than traditional interventions focused on home food environments.

The unequal effects of the health-economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite the global impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the question of whether mandated interventions have similar economic and public health effects as spontaneous behavioural change remains unresolved. Addressing this question, and understanding differential effects across socioeconomic groups, requires building quantitative and fine-grained mechanistic models. Here we introduce a data-driven, granular, agent-based model that simulates epidemic and economic outcomes across industries, occupations and income levels. We validate the model by reproducing key outcomes of the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 in the New York metropolitan area. The key mechanism coupling the epidemic and economic modules is the reduction in consumption due to fear of infection. In counterfactual experiments, we show that a similar trade-off between epidemic and economic outcomes exists both when individuals change their behaviour due to fear of infection and when non-pharmaceutical interventions are imposed. Low-income workers, who perform in-person occupations in customer-facing industries, face the strongest trade-off.

Identifying latent activity behaviors and lifestyles using mobility data to describe urban dynamics.

Urbanization and its problems require an in-depth and comprehensive understanding of urban dynamics, especially the complex and diversified lifestyles in modern cities. Digitally acquired data can accurately capture complex human activity, but it lacks the interpretability of demographic data. In this paper, we study a privacy-enhanced dataset of the mobility visitation patterns of 1.2 million people to 1.1 million places in 11 metro areas in the U.S. to detect the latent mobility behaviors and lifestyles in the largest American cities. Despite the considerable complexity of mobility visitations, we found that lifestyles can be automatically decomposed into only 12 latent interpretable activity behaviors on how people combine shopping, eating, working, or using their free time. Rather than describing individuals with a single lifestyle, we find that city dwellers' behavior is a mixture of those behaviors. Those detected latent activity behaviors are equally present across cities and cannot be fully explained by main demographic features. Finally, we find those latent behaviors are associated with dynamics like experienced income segregation, transportation, or healthy behaviors in cities, even after controlling for demographic features. Our results signal the importance of complementing traditional census data with activity behaviors to understand urban dynamics. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-023-00390-w.

Behavioral changes during the COVID-19 pandemic decreased income diversity of urban encounters.

Diversity of physical encounters in urban environments is known to spur economic productivity while also fostering social capital. However, mobility restrictions during the pandemic have forced people to reduce urban encounters, raising questions about the social implications of behavioral changes. In this paper, we study how individual income diversity of urban encounters changed during the pandemic, using a large-scale, privacy-enhanced mobility dataset of more than one million anonymized mobile phone users in Boston, Dallas, Los Angeles, and Seattle, across three years spanning before and during the pandemic. We find that the diversity of urban encounters has substantially decreased (by 15% to 30%) during the pandemic and has persisted through late 2021, even though aggregated mobility metrics have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Counterfactual analyses show that behavioral changes including lower willingness to explore new places further decreased the diversity of encounters in the long term. Our findings provide implications for managing the trade-off between the stringency of COVID-19 policies and the diversity of urban encounters as we move beyond the pandemic.

Home-to-school pedestrian mobility GPS data from a citizen science experiment in the Barcelona area.

The analysis of pedestrian GPS datasets is fundamental to further advance on the study and the design of walkable cities. The highest resolution GPS data can characterize micro-mobility patterns and pedestrians' micro-motives in relation to a small-scale urban context. Purposed-based recurrent mobility data inside people's neighbourhoods is an important source in these sorts of studies. However, micro-mobility around people's homes is generally unavailable, and if data exists, it is generally not shareable often due to privacy issues. Citizen science and its public involvement practices in scientific research are valid options to circumvent these challenges and provide meaningful datasets for walkable cities. The study presents GPS records from single-day home-to-school pedestrian mobility of 10 schools in the Barcelona Metropolitan area (Spain). The research provides pedestrian mobility from an age-homogeneous group of people. The study shares processed records with specific filtering, cleaning, and interpolation procedures that can facilitate and accelerate data usage. Citizen science practices during the whole research process are reported to offer a complete perspective of the data collected.

Diversity beyond density: Experienced social mixing of urban streets.

Urban density, in the form of residents' and visitors' concentration, is long considered to foster diverse exchanges of interpersonal knowledge and skills, which are intrinsic to sustainable human settlements. However, with current urban studies primarily devoted to city- and district-level analyses, we cannot unveil the elemental connection between urban density and diversity. Here we use an anonymized and privacy-enhanced mobile dataset of 0.5 million opted-in users from three metropolitan areas in the United States to show that at the scale of urban streets, density is not the only path to diversity. We represent the diversity of each street with the experienced social mixing (ESM), which describes the chances of people meeting diverse income groups throughout their daily experience. We conduct multiple experiments and show that the concentration of visitors only explains 26% of street-level ESM. However, adjacent amenities, residential diversity, and income level account for 44% of the ESM. Moreover, using longitudinal business data, we show that streets with an increased number of food businesses have seen an increased ESM from 2016 to 2018. Lastly, although streets with more visitors are more likely to have crime, diverse streets tend to have fewer crimes. These findings suggest that cities can leverage many tools beyond density to curate a diverse and safe street experience for people.

Population mobility data provides meaningful indicators of fast food intake and diet-related diseases in diverse populations.

The characteristics of food environments people are exposed to, such as the density of fast food (FF) outlets, can impact their diet and risk for diet-related chronic disease. Previous studies examining the relationship between food environments and nutritional health have produced mixed findings, potentially due to the predominant focus on static food environments around people's homes. As smartphone ownership increases, large-scale data on human mobility (i.e., smartphone geolocations) represents a promising resource for studying dynamic food environments that people have access to and visit as they move throughout their day. This study investigates whether mobility data provides meaningful indicators of diet, measured as FF intake, and diet-related disease, evaluating its usefulness for food environment research. Using a mobility dataset consisting of 14.5 million visits to geolocated food outlets in Los Angeles County (LAC) across a representative sample of 243,644 anonymous and opted-in adult smartphone users in LAC, we construct measures of visits to FF outlets aggregated over users living in neighborhood. We find that the aggregated measures strongly and significantly correspond to self-reported FF intake, obesity, and diabetes in a diverse, representative sample of 8,036 LAC adults included in a population health survey carried out by the LAC Department of Public Health. Visits to FF outlets were a better predictor of individuals' obesity and diabetes than their self-reported FF intake, controlling for other known risks. These findings suggest mobility data represents a valid tool to study people's use of dynamic food environments and links to diet and health.

Rhythm of the streets: a street classification framework based on street activity patterns.

As the living tissue connecting urban places, streets play significant roles in driving city development, providing essential access, and promoting human interactions. Understanding street activities and how these activities vary across different streets is critical for designing both efficient and livable streets. However, current street classification frameworks primarily focus on either streets' functions in transportation networks or their adjacent land uses rather than actual activity patterns, resulting in coarse classifications. This research proposes an activity-based street classification framework to categorize street segments based on their temporal street activity patterns, which is derived from high-resolution de-identified and privacy-enhanced mobility data. We then apply the proposed framework to 18,023 street segments in the City of Boston and reveal 10 distinct activity-based street types (ASTs). These ASTs highlight dynamic street activities on streets, which complements existing street classification frameworks, which focus on the static or transportation characteristics of the street segments. Our results show that a street classification framework based on temporal street activity patterns can identify street categories at a finer granularity than current methods, which can offer useful implications for state-of-the-art urban management and planning. In particular, we find that our classification distinguishes better those streets where crime is more prevalent than current functional or contextual classifications of streets.

Mobility patterns are associated with experienced income segregation in large US cities.

Traditional understanding of urban income segregation is largely based on static coarse-grained residential patterns. However, these do not capture the income segregation experience implied by the rich social interactions that happen in places that may relate to individual choices, opportunities, and mobility behavior. Using a large-scale high-resolution mobility data set of 4.5 million mobile phone users and 1.1 million places in 11 large American cities, we show that income segregation experienced in places and by individuals can differ greatly even within close spatial proximity. To further understand these fine-grained income segregation patterns, we introduce a Schelling extension of a well-known mobility model, and show that experienced income segregation is associated with an individual's tendency to explore new places (place exploration) as well as places with visitors from different income groups (social exploration). Interestingly, while the latter is more strongly associated with demographic characteristics, the former is more strongly associated with mobility behavioral variables. Our results suggest that mobility behavior plays an important role in experienced income segregation of individuals. To measure this form of income segregation, urban researchers should take into account mobility behavior and not only residential patterns.

News or social media? Socio-economic divide of mobile service consumption.

Reliable and timely information on socio-economic status and divides is critical to social and economic research and policing. Novel data sources from mobile communication platforms have enabled new cost-effective approaches and models to investigate social disparity, but their lack of interpretability, accuracy or scale has limited their relevance to date. We investigate the divide in digital mobile service usage with a large dataset of 3.7 billion time-stamped and geo-referenced mobile traffic records in a major European country, and find profound geographical unevenness in mobile service usage-especially on news, e-mail, social media consumption and audio/video streaming. We relate such diversity with income, educational attainment and inequality, and reveal how low-income or low-education areas are more likely to engage in video streaming or social media and less in news consumption, information searching, e-mail or audio streaming. The digital usage gap is so large that we can accurately infer the socio-economic status of a small area or even its Gini coefficient only from aggregated data traffic. Our results make the case for an inexpensive, privacy-preserving, real-time and scalable way to understand the digital usage divide and, in turn, poverty, unemployment or economic growth in our societies through mobile phone data.

Housing Prices and the Skills Composition of Neighborhoods.

In the United States (US), low-income workers are being pushed away from city centers where the cost of living is high. The effects of such changes on labor mobility and housing price have been explored in the literature. However, few studies have focused on the occupations and specific skills that identify the most susceptible workers. For example, it has become increasingly challenging to fill the service sector jobs in the San Francisco (SF) Bay Area because appropriately skilled workers cannot afford the growing cost of living within commuting distance. With this example in mind, how does a neighborhood's skill composition change as a result of higher housing prices? Are there certain skill sets that are being pushed to the geographical periphery of a city despite their essentialness to the city's economy? Our study focuses on the impact of housing prices with a granular view of skills compositions to answer the following question: Has the density of cognitive skill workers been increasing in a gentrified area? We hypothesize that, over time, low-skilled workers are pushed away from downtown or areas where high-skill establishments thrive. Our preliminary results show that high-level cognitive skills are getting closer to the city center indicating adaptation to the increase of median housing prices as opposed to low-level physical skills that got further away. We examined tracts that the literature indicates as gentrified areas and found a pattern in which there is a temporal increase in median housing prices and the number of business establishments coupled with an increase in the percentage of skilled cognitive workers.

Universal resilience patterns in labor markets.

Cities are the innovation centers of the US economy, but technological disruptions can exclude workers and inhibit a middle class. Therefore, urban policy must promote the jobs and skills that increase worker pay, create employment, and foster economic resilience. In this paper, we model labor market resilience with an ecologically-inspired job network constructed from the similarity of occupations' skill requirements. This framework reveals that the economic resilience of cities is universally and uniquely determined by the connectivity within a city's job network. US cities with greater job connectivity experienced lower unemployment during the Great Recession. Further, cities that increase their job connectivity see increasing wage bills, and workers of embedded occupations enjoy higher wages than their peers elsewhere. Finally, we show how job connectivity may clarify the augmenting and deleterious impact of automation in US cities. Policies that promote labor connectivity may grow labor markets and promote economic resilience.

Effect of COVID-19 response policies on walking behavior in US cities.

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing mass disruption to our daily lives. We integrate mobility data from mobile devices and area-level data to study the walking patterns of 1.62 million anonymous users in 10 metropolitan areas in the United States. The data covers the period from mid-February 2020 (pre-lockdown) to late June 2020 (easing of lockdown restrictions). We detect when users were walking, distance walked and time of the walk, and classify each walk as recreational or utilitarian. Our results reveal dramatic declines in walking, particularly utilitarian walking, while recreational walking has recovered and even surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Our findings also demonstrate important social patterns, widening existing inequalities in walking behavior. COVID-19 response measures have a larger impact on walking behavior for those from low-income areas and high use of public transportation. Provision of equal opportunities to support walking is key to opening up our society and economy.