SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the lives of millions and forced countries to devise public health policies to reduce the pace of transmission. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), falling oil prices, disparities in wealth and public health infrastructure, and large refugee populations have significantly increased the disease burden of COVID-19. In light of these exacerbating factors, public health surveillance is particularly necessary to help leaders understand and implement effective disease control policies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 persistence and transmission. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics, in combination with traditional surveillance, for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence to better understand a country's risk for explosive growth and to better inform those who are managing the pandemic. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. METHODS: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 30 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in MENA as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS: The regression Wald statistic was significant (χ25=859.5, P<.001). The Sargan test was not significant, failing to reject the validity of overidentifying restrictions (χ2294=16, P=.99). Countries with the highest cumulative caseload of the novel coronavirus include Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel with 530,380, 426,634, 342,202, and 303,109 cases, respectively. Many of the smaller countries in MENA have higher infection rates than those countries with the highest caseloads. Oman has 33.3 new infections per 100,000 population while Bahrain has 12.1, Libya has 14, and Lebanon has 14.6 per 100,000 people. In order of largest to smallest number of cumulative deaths since January 2020, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have 30,375, 10,254, 6120, and 5185, respectively. Israel, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Oman had the highest rates of COVID-19 persistence, which is the number of new infections statistically related to new infections in the prior week. Bahrain had positive speed, acceleration, and jerk, signaling the potential for explosive growth. CONCLUSIONS: Static and dynamic public health surveillance metrics provide a more complete picture of pandemic progression across countries in MENA. Static measures capture data at a given point in time such as infection rates and death rates. By including speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, public health officials may design policies with an eye to the future. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all demonstrated the highest rate of infections, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, prompting public health leaders to increase prevention efforts.

SARS-CoV-2 Wave Two Surveillance in East Asia and the Pacific: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound global impact on governments, health care systems, economies, and populations around the world. Within the East Asia and Pacific region, some countries have mitigated the spread of the novel coronavirus effectively and largely avoided severe negative consequences, while others still struggle with containment. As the second wave reaches East Asia and the Pacific, it becomes more evident that additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is needed to track recent shifts, rates of increase, and persistence associated with the pandemic. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk, persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those countries who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. We provide novel indicators to measure disease transmission. METHODS: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 330 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in East Asia and the Pacific as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS: The standard surveillance metrics for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar were concerning as they had the largest new caseloads at 4301, 2588, and 1387, respectively. When looking at the acceleration of new COVID-19 infections, we found that French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had rates at 3.17, 0.22, and 0.06 per 100,000. These three countries also ranked highest in terms of jerk at 15.45, 0.10, and 0.04, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Two of the most populous countries in East Asia and the Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, have alarming surveillance metrics. These two countries rank highest in new infections in the region. The highest rates of speed, acceleration, and positive upwards jerk belong to French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, and may result in explosive growth. While all countries in East Asia and the Pacific need to be cautious about reopening their countries since outbreaks are likely to occur in the second wave of COVID-19, the country of greatest concern is the Philippines. Based on standard and enhanced surveillance, the Philippines has not gained control of the COVID-19 epidemic, which is particularly troubling because the country ranks 4th in population in the region. Without extreme and rigid social distancing, quarantines, hygiene, and masking to reverse trends, the Philippines will remain on the global top 5 list of worst COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in high morbidity and mortality. The second wave will only exacerbate existing conditions and increase COVID-19 transmissions.

Surveillance Metrics of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Central Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the global COVID-19 pandemic, has severely impacted Central Asia; in spring 2020, high numbers of cases and deaths were reported in this region. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is currently breaching the borders of Central Asia. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders; however, existing surveillance explains past transmissions while obscuring shifts in the pandemic, increases in infection rates, and the persistence of the transmission of COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to provide enhanced surveillance metrics for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand the risk of explosive growth in each country and which countries are managing the pandemic successfully. METHODS: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 60 days of COVID-19-related data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Central Asia region as a function of the prior number of cases, level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS: COVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the weeks of September 30 to October 6 and October 7-13, 2020, in Central Asia. The region averaged 11,730 new cases per day for the first week and 14,514 for the second week. Infection rates increased across the region from 4.74 per 100,000 persons to 5.66. Russia and Turkey had the highest 7-day moving averages in the region, with 9836 and 1469, respectively, for the week of October 6 and 12,501 and 1603, respectively, for the week of October 13. Russia has the fourth highest speed in the region and continues to have positive acceleration, driving the negative trend for the entire region as the largest country by population. Armenia is experiencing explosive growth of COVID-19; its infection rate of 13.73 for the week of October 6 quickly jumped to 25.19, the highest in the region, the following week. The region overall is experiencing increases in its 7-day moving average of new cases, infection, rate, and speed, with continued positive acceleration and no sign of a reversal in sight. CONCLUSIONS: The rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic requires novel dynamic surveillance metrics in addition to static metrics to effectively analyze the pandemic trajectory and control spread. Policy makers need to know the magnitude of transmission rates, how quickly they are accelerating, and how previous cases are impacting current caseload due to a lag effect. These metrics applied to Central Asia suggest that the region is trending negatively, primarily due to minimal restrictions in Russia.

A SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance System in Sub-Saharan Africa: Modeling Study for Persistence and Transmission to Inform Policy.

BACKGROUND: Since the novel coronavirus emerged in late 2019, the scientific and public health community around the world have sought to better understand, surveil, treat, and prevent the disease, COVID-19. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), many countries responded aggressively and decisively with lockdown measures and border closures. Such actions may have helped prevent large outbreaks throughout much of the region, though there is substantial variation in caseloads and mortality between nations. Additionally, the health system infrastructure remains a concern throughout much of SSA, and the lockdown measures threaten to increase poverty and food insecurity for the subcontinent's poorest residents. The lack of sufficient testing, asymptomatic infections, and poor reporting practices in many countries limit our understanding of the virus's impact, creating a need for better and more accurate surveillance metrics that account for underreporting and data contamination. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to improve infectious disease surveillance by complementing standardized metrics with new and decomposable surveillance metrics of COVID-19 that overcome data limitations and contamination inherent in public health surveillance systems. In addition to prevalence of observed daily and cumulative testing, testing positivity rates, morbidity, and mortality, we derived COVID-19 transmission in terms of speed, acceleration or deceleration, change in acceleration or deceleration (jerk), and 7-day transmission rate persistence, which explains where and how rapidly COVID-19 is transmitting and quantifies shifts in the rate of acceleration or deceleration to inform policies to mitigate and prevent COVID-19 and food insecurity in SSA. METHODS: We extracted 60 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries and employed an empirical difference equation to measure daily case numbers in 47 sub-Saharan countries as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS: Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and South Africa have the most observed cases of COVID-19, and the Seychelles, Eritrea, Mauritius, Comoros, and Burundi have the fewest. In contrast, the speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence indicate rates of COVID-19 transmissions differ from observed cases. In September 2020, Cape Verde, Namibia, Eswatini, and South Africa had the highest speed of COVID-19 transmissions at 13.1, 7.1, 3.6, and 3 infections per 100,0000, respectively; Zimbabwe had an acceleration rate of transmission, while Zambia had the largest rate of deceleration this week compared to last week, referred to as a jerk. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate indicates the number of cases on September 15, 2020, which are a function of new infections from September 8, 2020, decreased in South Africa from 216.7 to 173.2 and Ethiopia from 136.7 to 106.3 per 100,000. The statistical approach was validated based on the regression results; they determined recent changes in the pattern of infection, and during the weeks of September 1-8 and September 9-15, there were substantial country differences in the evolution of the SSA pandemic. This change represents a decrease in the transmission model R value for that week and is consistent with a de-escalation in the pandemic for the sub-Saharan African continent in general. CONCLUSIONS: Standard surveillance metrics such as daily observed new COVID-19 cases or deaths are necessary but insufficient to mitigate and prevent COVID-19 transmission. Public health leaders also need to know where COVID-19 transmission rates are accelerating or decelerating, whether those rates increase or decrease over short time frames because the pandemic can quickly escalate, and how many cases today are a function of new infections 7 days ago. Even though SSA is home to some of the poorest countries in the world, development and population size are not necessarily predictive of COVID-19 transmission, meaning higher income countries like the United States can learn from African countries on how best to implement mitigation and prevention efforts. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.2196/21955.

Efavirenz and Lopinavir Levels in HIV-Infected Women and Their Nursing Infants, in Mali.

Limited data are currently available on antiretroviral pharmacokinetics in breast milk (BM) and in breastfed infants' blood. To explore these parameters in patients in Mali, we measured plasma antiretroviral levels in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected mothers and their breastfed infants over 6 months. We specifically analyzed the concentrations of efavirenz (EFV) and lopinavir (LPV) in the plasma of mothers living with HIV and their breastfed infants. Blood samples were collected at delivery and at month 1, 3, and 6 postpartum. EFV and LPV concentrations were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. HIV-1 RNA load was measured by Abbott M2000RT RealTime System at delivery and 6 months postpartum for mothers, and at 3 and 6 months postbirth for infants. The median duration of antiretroviral therapy at study inclusion was 57 months [interquartile range (IQR), 0-168 months]. The median EFV ratios of infant plasma/maternal plasma (MP) were 0.057 at month 1, 0.072 at month 3, and 0.048 at month 6. During the study period, the median BM/MP ratio of EFV was 1.16 (IQR, 0.96-20.62), which corresponds to a relative infant dose of 2.46% of the recommended weight-adjusted pediatric EFV dose at month 6. The apparent infant clearance of EFV was 0.146 l/h per kilogram at month 6. The LPV concentrations in the plasma of all infants were undetectable. No drug-related adverse reaction or toxicity was observed in any of the infants. The two women who presented a viral load of >50 copies/ml at month 6 had undetectable plasma drug concentrations at the same period. This study showed that breastfed infants received a low level of EFV but not LPV from their treated mothers.

Evaluation of gene xpert for routine diagnosis of HIV-associated tuberculosis in Nigeria: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Xpert MTB/Rif (Xpert) is described as a game changer in tuberculosis (TB) control. We evaluated the impact of Xpert on diagnosis, time to treatment, and treatment outcome among patients with HIV associated TB in Nigeria. METHODS: Adults with HIV being evaluated for pulmonary TB (PTB) were consecutively enrolled into the study cohort. At baseline, expectorated sputa were examined using Xpert and smear microscopy for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) and acid fast bacilli, respectively. Patients diagnosed with TB were followed-up until 6 months post TB diagnosis. TB was defined as sputum positive by smear microscopy, Xpert detection of MTB (bacteriologically confirmed case), or clinician diagnosed TB with initiation of full TB treatment (clinical diagnosis). Time to treatment was time from first clinic presentation for TB evaluation to initiation of TB treatment. We examined the proportion PTB patients with a positive Xpert result and compared time to TB treatment and outcome of TB treatment in patients based on sputum test results. RESULTS: A total of 310 adults with HIV were enrolled. The median CD4 cell count was 242 (interquartile range (IQR) 120-425) cells/mm3 and 88.1% were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). PTB was diagnosed in 76 (24.5%) patients, with 71 (93.4%) being bacteriologically confirmed. Among patients with PTB, 56 (73.7%) were Xpert positive. Median time to treatment was 5 (IQR 2-8) days and 12 (IQR 5-35) days in patient with and without Xpert positive results, respectively; p = 0.005. Overall 73.1% had symptom free survival at 6 months post PTB treatment initiation with no significant differences observed based on TB test method. 10 (14.9%) died within 6 months of TB treatment initiation. In analysis adjusted for age, sex, and mode of diagnosis (Xpert positive or negative), only ART use independently predicted mortality (AOR 0.10; 95% CI 0.01-0.93). CONCLUSION: The use of Xpert for routine care reduced time to PTB treatment, but did not improve survival in patients with HIV treated for susceptible PTB.

Genomic characterization of SARS-CoV-2 in Guinea, West Africa.

SARS-CoV-2 has claimed several million lives since its emergence in late 2019. The ongoing evolution of the virus has resulted in the periodic emergence of new viral variants with distinct fitness advantages, including enhanced transmission and immune escape. While several SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern trace their origins back to the African continent-including Beta, Eta, and Omicron-most countries in Africa remain under-sampled in global genomic surveillance efforts. In an effort to begin filling these knowledge gaps, we conducted retrospective viral genomic surveillance in Guinea from October 2020 to August 2021. We found that SARS-CoV-2 clades 20A, 20B, and 20C dominated throughout 2020 until the coincident emergence of the Alpha and Eta variants of concern in January 2021. The Alpha variant remained dominant throughout early 2021 until the arrival of the Delta variant in July. Surprisingly, despite the small sample size of our study, we also found the persistence of the early SARS-CoV-2 clade 19B as late as April 2021. Together, these data help fill in our understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 population dynamics in West Africa early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants in West Africa: Insights into genomic surveillance in resource-constrained settings.

SARS-CoV-2 geno-surveillance has been challenging in West Africa. Despite the multiple challenges encountered, particularly in West Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic, efforts were made to circumscribe the spread of the disease and to provide methods and resources for surveillance. We aim to describe the dynamic of SARS-CoV-2 variants and highlight the efforts made in genomic surveillance in West Africa. Therefore, we proceeded to retrieve West African countries' SARS-CoV-2 data from public repository (GISAID) and then ensued to a descriptive statistical analysis. From the start of the pandemic till December 2023, we found less than a million COVID-19 cases notified within the West African region. Overall, the study population was 50.21 % Males with a median age of 37. Regarding genomic data, only 3.02 % of cases were sequenced and deposited in GISAID. Of the available sequence, we noted that most of the variants have circulated in West Africa before the official notification of the variants. Nigeria, Ghana, and Senegal provided together more than half of West Africa's originating sequences when Omicron and Delta variants were the most sequenced in West Africa.

SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance System in Canada: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 global pandemic has disrupted structures and communities across the globe. Numerous regions of the world have had varying responses in their attempts to contain the spread of the virus. Factors such as public health policies, governance, and sociopolitical climate have led to differential levels of success at controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Ultimately, a more advanced surveillance metric for COVID-19 transmission is necessary to help government systems and national leaders understand which responses have been effective and gauge where outbreaks occur. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to provide advanced COVID-19 surveillance metrics for Canada at the country, province, and territory level that account for shifts in the pandemic including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence. Enhanced surveillance identifies risks for explosive growth and regions that have controlled outbreaks successfully. METHODS: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from Canadian public health registries for 13 provinces and territories. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Canada as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS: We compare the week of February 7-13, 2021, with the week of February 14-20, 2021. Canada, as a whole, had a decrease in speed from 8.4 daily new cases per 100,000 population to 7.5 daily new cases per 100,000 population. The persistence of new cases during the week of February 14-20 reported 7.5 cases that are a result of COVID-19 transmissions 7 days earlier. The two most populous provinces of Ontario and Quebec both experienced decreases in speed from 7.9 and 11.5 daily new cases per 100,000 population for the week of February 7-13 to speeds of 6.9 and 9.3 for the week of February 14-20, respectively. Nunavut experienced a significant increase in speed during this time, from 3.3 daily new cases per 100,000 population to 10.9 daily new cases per 100,000 population. CONCLUSIONS: Canada excelled at COVID-19 control early on in the pandemic, especially during the first COVID-19 shutdown. The second wave at the end of 2020 resulted in a resurgence of the outbreak, which has since been controlled. Enhanced surveillance identifies outbreaks and where there is the potential for explosive growth, which informs proactive health policy.

HBV co-infection is associated with persistently elevated liver stiffness measurement in HIV-positive adults: A 6-year single-centre cohort study in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: In Nigeria, the effect of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) on long-term liver outcomes in persons with HIV (PLH) has not been described. We determined changes in liver stiffness measure (LSM) using transient elastography over 6 years in HIV mono-infected and HIV-HBV co-infected Nigerians initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) and factors associated with LSM decline. METHODS: This single centre, cohort study enrolled ART-naïve HIV mono- and HIV-HBV co-infected adults (≥18 years) at the APIN Public Health Initiatives-supported HIV Care and Treatment Centre at Jos University Teaching Hospital, Nigeria, from 7/2011 to 2/2012. LSM at baseline, Years 3 and 6 were analysed using longitudinal models to estimate changes over time and their predictors. RESULTS: Data from 100 (31%) HIV-HBV co-infected and 225 (69%) HIV mono-infected participants were analysed. Median LSM at baseline was 6.10 (IQR: 4.60-7.90) kPa in co-infected and 5.10 (IQR: 4.40-6.10) kPa in mono-infected participants. In adjusted analyses, average LSM was not significantly different between Year 0 and 3 (ß = 0.02, -0.22 to 0.26, p = 0.87 and Year 0 and 6 (ß = -0.02, -0.23 to 0.27, p = 0.88) in both groups (p>0.05), but co-infected participants had significantly higher LSM than mono-infected throughout follow-up (ß = 0.018, 0.019-0.28, p < 0.001). Year 3 LSM differed according to ART initiation status by Year 3 (initiators - non-initiators: -0.87, -1.70 to -0.29). CONCLUSION: In this cohort, LSM remained higher among HIV-HBV co-infected versus HIV mono-infected participants throughout follow-up. Our findings emphasize the continuing need for monitoring of liver outcomes in HIV-HBV co-infected populations on ART and the importance of preventing HBV infection among PLH to optimize liver health.

Latin America and the Caribbean SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented stress on economies, food systems, and health care resources in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Existing surveillance provides a proxy of the COVID-19 caseload and mortalities; however, these measures make it difficult to identify the dynamics of the pandemic and places where outbreaks are likely to occur. Moreover, existing surveillance techniques have failed to measure the dynamics of the pandemic. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to provide additional surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission to track changes in the speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence in the transmission of the pandemic more accurately than existing metrics. METHODS: Through a longitudinal trend analysis, we extracted COVID-19 data over 45 days from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to monitor the daily number of cases in the LAC as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. COVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the LAC between September 30 and October 6, 2020, and between October 7 and 13, 2020. RESULTS: The LAC saw a reduction in the speed, acceleration, and jerk for the week of October 13, 2020, compared to the week of October 6, 2020, accompanied by reductions in new cases and the 7-day moving average. For the week of October 6, 2020, Belize reported the highest acceleration and jerk, at 1.7 and 1.8, respectively, which is particularly concerning, given its high mortality rate. The Bahamas also had a high acceleration at 1.5. In total, 11 countries had a positive acceleration during the week of October 6, 2020, whereas only 6 countries had a positive acceleration for the week of October 13, 2020. The TAC displayed an overall positive trend, with a speed of 10.40, acceleration of 0.27, and jerk of -0.31, all of which decreased in the subsequent week to 9.04, -0.81, and -0.03, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Metrics such as new cases, cumulative cases, deaths, and 7-day moving averages provide a static view of the pandemic but fail to identify where and the speed at which SARS-CoV-2 infects new individuals, the rate of acceleration or deceleration of the pandemic, and weekly comparison of the rate of acceleration of the pandemic indicate impending explosive growth or control of the pandemic. Enhanced surveillance will inform policymakers and leaders in the LAC about COVID-19 outbreaks.

The Interplay Between Policy and COVID-19 Outbreaks in South Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis of Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 transmission rates in South Asia initially were under control when governments implemented health policies aimed at controlling the pandemic such as quarantines, travel bans, and border, business, and school closures. Governments have since relaxed public health restrictions, which resulted in significant outbreaks, shifting the global epicenter of COVID-19 to India. Ongoing systematic public health surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic is needed to inform disease prevention policy to re-establish control over the pandemic within South Asia. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to inform public health leaders about the state of the COVID-19 pandemic, how South Asia displays differences within and among countries and other global regions, and where immediate action is needed to control the outbreaks. METHODS: We extracted COVID-19 data spanning 62 days from public health registries and calculated traditional and enhanced surveillance metrics. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in South Asia as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shifts in variables with a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS: Traditional surveillance metrics indicate that South Asian countries have an alarming outbreak, with India leading the region with 310,310 new daily cases in accordance with the 7-day moving average. Enhanced surveillance indicates that while Pakistan and Bangladesh still have a high daily number of new COVID-19 cases (n=4819 and n=3878, respectively), their speed of new infections declined from April 12-25, 2021, from 2.28 to 2.18 and 3.15 to 2.35 daily new infections per 100,000 population, respectively, which suggests that their outbreaks are decreasing and that these countries are headed in the right direction. In contrast, India's speed of new infections per 100,000 population increased by 52% during the same period from 14.79 to 22.49 new cases per day per 100,000 population, which constitutes an increased outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: Relaxation of public health restrictions and the spread of novel variants fueled the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Asia. Public health surveillance indicates that shifts in policy and the spread of new variants correlate with a drastic expansion in the pandemic, requiring immediate action to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Surveillance is needed to inform leaders whether policies help control the pandemic.

Predictors of Mortality From a Population-Based Cancer Registry Data in Jos, Nigeria: A Resource-Limited Setting.

Background: It is a well-documented fact that world-wide cancer incidence and mortality remains high in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infected population despite potent antiretroviral therapy. With the current capture of HIV status of cancer patients in our cancer registry at Jos Nigeria, this study aims to assess the effect of HIV on cancer mortality outcomes. Methodology: We conducted a 2-year retrospective cohort study of cancer registry data from Jos, north central Nigeria. The cancers were grouped into cervical, breast, liver, hematologic, colonic, AIDS defining, prostate and others in this study. Patients were followed up to determine their patient time contribution from time at initiation of cancer treatment to death or the end of study period. Those lost to follow-up were censored at date of their last known follow-up in clinic. Results: Out of 930 cancer cases evaluated, 52 (5.6%) were HIV positive, 507 (54.5%) were HIV negative and 371 (39.9%) did not know their HIV status. After 525,223 person- days of follow-up, there were 232 deaths leading to a crude mortality rate of 4.3 per 10,000 person-days. Median survival probability for both HIV-infected and HIV uninfected patients were equal (1,013 days). Unadjusted hazard of death was associated with greater age, HR 0.99 (95% CI: 0.98,0.99, p = 0.002); hepatitis virus, HR 2.40 (95% CI: 1.69,3.43, p = 0.001); liver cancer, HR 2.25 (95% CI:1.11,4.55, p = 0.024); prostate cancer, HR 0.17 (95% CI: 0.06,0.393, p = 0.001). In an adjusted model, only prostate cancer AHR 0.23 (95% CI: 0.12, 0.42, p < 0.001) and liver cancer AHR 2.45 (95% CI: 1.78, 5.51, p < 0.001) remained significantly associated with death regardless of HIV status. Conclusion: Having liver cancer increases risk for mortality among our cancer patients. Screening, early detection and treatment are therefore key to improving dismal outcomes.

Patients infected with Mycobacterium africanum versus Mycobacterium tuberculosis possess distinct intestinal microbiota.

BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC), the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), is composed of eight subspecies. TB in West Africa, in contrast to other geographical regions, is caused by Mycobacterium africanum (MAF) in addition to M. tuberculosis (MTB), with both infections presenting similar symptoms. Nevertheless, MAF is considered to be hypovirulent in comparison with MTB and less likely to progress to active disease. In this study, we asked whether MAF and MTB infected patients possess distinct intestinal microbiomes and characterized how these microbiota communities are affected by anti-tuberculosis therapy (ATT). Additionally, we assessed if the changes in microbiota composition following infection correlate with pathogen induced alterations in host blood-gene expression. METHODS: A longitudinal, clinical study of MAF infected, MTB infected patients assessed at diagnosis and two months after start of ATT, and healthy, endemic controls was conducted to compare compositions of the fecal microbiome as determined by 16S rRNA sequencing. A blood transcriptome analysis was also performed on a subset of subjects in each group by microarray and the results cross-compared with the same individual's microbiota composition. FINDINGS: MAF participants have distinct microbiomes compared with MTB patients, displaying decreased diversity and increases in Enterobacteriaceae with respect to healthy participants not observed in the latter patient group. Interestingly, this observed elevation in Enterobacteriaceae positively correlated with enhanced inflammatory gene expression in peripheral blood and was reversed after initiation of ATT. INTERPRETATION: Our findings indicate that MAF and MTB have distinct associations with the gut microbiome that may be reflective of the differential susceptibility of West Africans to these two co-endemic infections either as biomarkers or as a contributing determinant.

Association of Mycobacterium africanum Infection with Slower Disease Progression Compared with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Malian Patients with Tuberculosis.

Mycobacterium africanum (MAF) is known to endemically cause up to 40-50% of all pulmonary TB in West Africa. The aim of this study was to compare MAF with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) with regard to time from symptom onset to TB diagnosis, and clinical and radiological characteristics. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Bamako, Mali, between August 2014 and July 2016. Seventy-seven newly diagnosed pulmonary TB patients who were naive to treatment were enrolled at Mali's University Clinical Research Center. Sputum cultures were performed to confirm the diagnosis and spoligotyping to identify the mycobacterial strain. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify factors associated with disease progression. Overall, the frequency of female patients was 25% in MAF infection and only 10.0% in MTB infection (OR = 2.9), and MAF was more represented in patients aged ≥ 30 years (57.1% versus 36.7% [OR = 2.3]). More MAF- than MTB-infected patients had a history of a prior TB contact (32.1% versus 14.3% [OR = 2.8]). The mean duration between cough onset and TB diagnosis was 111 days (∼3.7 months) for MAF and 72 days (∼2.4 months) for MTB (P = 0.007). In a multivariate regression, weight loss (body mass index [BMI] < 18.5 kg/m2) and cough duration (> 4 months) were strongly associated with MAF infection (OR = 5.20 [1.49-18.26], P = 0.010, and 4.74 [1.2-18.58], P = 0.02), respectively. Our data show that MAF infection was significantly associated with lower BMI and a longer time between symptom onset and TB diagnosis than MTB. This supports the concept that MAF infection may have slower disease progression and less severe cough symptoms than MTB.

Changing patterns in trend of top 10 cancers in the Jos University Teaching Hospital's (JUTH) cancer registry (1996-2018), Jos, north-central Nigeria.

Introduction: Changes in the epidemiology of cancers in some African countries due to demographic shift and change in lifestyle is well documented. Availability of screening, diagnostic and treatment facilities for the population serving a registry overtime is likely to impact on parameters of collated and stored data. We therefore sought to document changes in trends observed in the data stored at the Jos University's (JUTH's) cancer registry over the period of years in focus and highlight the role of certain local factors on these changes. Methodology: This is a 22 year retrospective descriptive study of top ten common cancers documented at the cancer registry at JUTH. JUTH is a tertiary health center located at Jos, North-Central Nigeria. Variables such as age, topography of cancer and sex were obtained and their proportions described. Results: A total of 4,279 top ten cancers were recorded during the period of study of which years 1996-2005 accounted for 2,035(47.56 %), 2006-2015; 1,606 (37.53 %) and January 2016-June 2018; 638 (14.91 %). In the different periods considered prostate cancer was the commonest in males (1996-2005:226(28.83%); 2006-2015:224(37.27%) and January 2016-June 2018:136(37.99%). While among females breast cancer was commonest 491(39.25%) from 1996-2005, 2006-2015 cervical cancer 371 (36.92%) and 2016-2018 breast cancer 140 (50.00%). In the period 2016-2018 liver cancer became the third commonest cancer while cervical cancer came to fifth position 35(5.49%). Conclusion: Changing trends in the registry's data to provide conclusions useful for policy formulation and implementation.

Comparing Treatment Outcomes of Antiretroviral Therapy in HIV-1 and HIV-2 Infected Patients, in Bamako, Mali.

BACKGROUND: HIV-2 leads to a less-severe disease than HIV-1 but is known to be resistant to Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors (NNRTIs). We goaled to evaluate the clinical and biological outcomes of HIV-1 and HIV-2 infected-patients under Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) that do not include NNRTIs. METHODS: This is a case-control study of 100 participants (half in each group) to measure the frequency of clinical and biological adverse effects, and disease outcome at 6 and 12 months of treatment (M6 and M12) We included. RESULTS: Opportunistic infections were more frequent in HIV-1 infected patients with 82% when compared to HIV-2, 68%. However, the prevalence of treatment adverse events was slightly higher in HIV-2 infected patients. The average increase of CD4 cell count at M6 of treatment was 139.93 and 159.41 cells/mm3, for HIV-2 and HIV-1 groups respectively, and at 153 and 217 cells/mm3, at M12 for HIV-2 and HIV-1 respectively. A total of nine HIV-2 and six HIV-1 deaths were reported during the study. CONCLUSION: This study has shown that ART regimens that do not include NNRTIs are effective equally in the treatment of HIV-1 and HIV-2 infections. Nevertheless, we recommend regular and continuous laboratory monitoring for all HIV treated patients.

Cost effectiveness of human papilloma virus vaccination in low and middle income countries: a systematic review of literature.

INTRODUCTION: Low and middle income countries (LMICs) bear more than 50% of the current cervical cancer burden over the last decade with linkages to lack of HPV vaccination, high levels of poverty, illiteracy and nonexistent or poor screening programs. Governments of LMICs need enough convincing evidence that HPV vaccination will be more cost-effective in reducing the scourge of cervical cancer. AREAS COVERED: A systematic review to identify suitable studies from MEDLINE(via PubMed), EMBASE and Electronic search through GOOGLE for original and review articles from 2007 to 2014 on cost-effectiveness of human papilloma virus vaccination of pre-adolescent girls in LMICs was conducted. A total of 19 full articles were finally selected and reviewed after screening out those not consistent with the inclusion and exclusion criteria. EXPERT COMMENTARY: Most studies on cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccine in LMICs show that lowering cost of HPV vaccination with or without Pap smear screening is cost-effective in areas with high incidence of cervical cancer.

The most frequent Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex families in mali (2006-2016) based on spoligotyping.

BACKGROUND: To identify strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBc) circulating in Bamako region during the past 10 years. METHODS: From 2006 to 2016, we conducted a cross-sectional study to identify with spoligotyping, clinical isolates from tuberculosis (TB)-infected patients at different stages of their treatments in Bamako, Mali. RESULTS: Among the 904 suspected TB patients included in the study and thereafter tested in our BSL-3 laboratory, 492 (54.4%) had MTBc and therefore underwent spoligotyping. Overall, three subspecies, i.e., MTB T1 (31.9%) and MTB LAM10 (15.3%) from lineage 4 and M. africanum 2 (16.8%) from lineage 6 were the leading causes of TB in Bamako region during the past 10 years. Other spoligotypes such as MTB T3, MTB Haarlem 2, MTB EAI3, and MTB family 33 were also commonly seen from 2010 to 2016. CONCLUSION: This study showed a high genetic diversity of strains isolated in Bamako region and highlights that M. tuberculosis T1 strain was the most prevalent. Furthermore, the data indicate an increasing proportion of primary drug resistance overtime in Bamako.

Screening new tuberculosis patients in Mali for rifampicin resistance at 2months.

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND: The recent call for universal drug susceptibility testing (DST) for all tuberculosis (TB) patients will be difficult to meet in settings where Xpert rollout is limited, such as low prevalence of HIV and Multi-drug Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR) settings. As recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, the success of TB treatment is measured by Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) microscopy or auramine-rhodamine fluorescent microscopy (FM) on sputum, in which conversion to negative smear at 2months (M) is an important predictor of treatment success, defined as a negative smear at 5M. The sputum smear that fails to convert to negative at 5M are screened for rifampicin resistance. We tested in a prospective study whether an early screen for rifampicin resistance, based on FM results at 2M, could detect MDR patients early, rather than screening all patients with GeneXpert MTB/Rif at baseline. METHODS: Between February 2015 and August 2016, we enrolled new TB patients in an IRB-approved prospective cohort study at four health centers in Bamako district. Fresh sputum samples were collected at 2M and 5M to measure FM smear conversion. Patients who failed to show a decline in FM positivity at 2M (moderate or many Acid Fast Bacilli (AFB)) had their sputum tested in GeneXpert to detect rifampicin resistance. Patients who had any AFB seen at 5M were also tested using GeneXpert. RESULTS: Of the 570 patients who were enrolled in the study, 22 (3.8%) died and 27 (4.7%) were lost to follow-up. The prevalence of HIV and TB coinfection was 12.4%, and 65.6% of the patients were male. At 2M, 32 out of 429 patients still had moderate or many AFBs in FM, and were screened by Xpert, of whom 5 (15.6%) tested rifampicin-resistant and were referred for MDR treatment. Of the 310 patients who completed 5M of treatment, 35 (11.3%) met the definition of failure (few or moderate AFB in FM) and had their sputum tested in Xpert; moreover, four (11.4%) demonstrated rifampicin resistance. In total, 67 (21.6% of 310) patients were screened by Xpert, of whom nine were detected to have MDR (or 13.4% of those screened). CONCLUSION: Although we cannot exclude additional MDR patients having been missed by our screening strategy, our screening algorithm at 2M detected five out of nine MDR patients. Detecting patients at 2M allowed for earlier referral, and potentially less acquired drug resistance and lower mortality. This strategy may be advantageous while awaiting further rollout of Xpert machines that will permit universal DST.