Systems Thinking as a Framework for Analyzing Commercial Determinants of Health.

Policy Points: Worldwide, more than 70% of all deaths are attributable to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), nearly half of which are premature and apply to individuals of working age. Although such deaths are largely preventable, effective solutions continue to elude the public health community. One reason is the considerable influence of the "commercial determinants of health": NCDs are the product of a system that includes powerful corporate actors, who are often involved in public health policymaking. This article shows how a complex systems perspective may be used to analyze the commercial determinants of NCDs, and it explains how this can help with (1) conceptualizing the problem of NCDs and (2) developing effective policy interventions. CONTEXT: The high burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is politically salient and eminently preventable. However, effective solutions largely continue to elude the public health community. Two pressing issues heighten this challenge: the first is the public health community's narrow approach to addressing NCDs, and the second is the involvement of corporate actors in policymaking. While NCDs are often conceptualized in terms of individual-level risk factors, we argue that they should be reframed as products of a complex system. This article explores the value of a systems approach to understanding NCDs as an emergent property of a complex system, with a focus on commercial actors. METHODS: Drawing on Donella Meadows's systems thinking framework, this article examines how a systems perspective may be used to analyze the commercial determinants of NCDs and, specifically, how unhealthy commodity industries influence public health policy. FINDINGS: Unhealthy commodity industries actively design and shape the NCD policy system, intervene at different levels of the system to gain agency over policy and politics, and legitimize their presence in public health policy decisions. CONCLUSIONS: It should be possible to apply the principles of systems thinking to other complex public health issues, not just NCDs. Such an approach should be tested and refined for other complex public health challenges.

Global health impacts of policies: lessons from the UK.

BACKGROUND: The UK government committed to undertaking impact assessments of its policies on the health of populations in low and middle-income countries in its cross-government strategy "Health is Global". To facilitate this process, the Department of Health, in collaboration with the National Heart Forum, initiated a project to pilot the use of a global health impact assessment guidance framework and toolkit for policy-makers. This paper aims to stimulate debate about the desirability and feasibility of global health impact assessments by describing and drawing lessons from the first stage of the project. DISCUSSION: Despite the attraction of being able to assess and address potential global health impacts of policies, there is a dearth of existing information and experience. A literature review was followed by discussions with policy-makers and an online survey about potential barriers, preferred support mechanisms and potential policies on which to pilot the toolkit. Although policy-makers were willing to engage in hypothetical discussions about the methodology, difficulties in identifying potential pilots suggest a wider problem in encouraging take up without legislative imperatives. This is reinforced by the findings of the survey that barriers to uptake included lack of time, resources and expertise. We identified three lessons for future efforts to mainstream global health impact assessments: 1) Identify a lead government department and champion--to some extent, this role was fulfilled by the Department of Health, however, it lacked a high-level cross-government mechanism to support implementation. 2) Ensure adequate resources and consider embedding the goals and principles of global health impact assessments into existing processes to maximise those resources. 3) Develop an effective delivery mechanism involving both state actors, and non-state actors who can ensure a "voice" for constituencies who are affected by government policies and also provide the "demand" for the assessments. SUMMARY: This paper uses the initial stages of a study on global health impact assessments to pose the wider question of incentives for policy-makers to improve global health. It highlights three lessons for successful development and implementation of global health impact assessments in relation to stewardship, resources, and delivery mechanisms.

Priority actions for the non-communicable disease crisis.

The UN High-Level Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in September, 2011, is an unprecedented opportunity to create a sustained global movement against premature death and preventable morbidity and disability from NCDs, mainly heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease. The increasing global crisis in NCDs is a barrier to development goals including poverty reduction, health equity, economic stability, and human security. The Lancet NCD Action Group and the NCD Alliance propose five overarching priority actions for the response to the crisis--leadership, prevention, treatment, international cooperation, and monitoring and accountability--and the delivery of five priority interventions--tobacco control, salt reduction, improved diets and physical activity, reduction in hazardous alcohol intake, and essential drugs and technologies. The priority interventions were chosen for their health effects, cost-effectiveness, low costs of implementation, and political and financial feasibility. The most urgent and immediate priority is tobacco control. We propose as a goal for 2040, a world essentially free from tobacco where less than 5% of people use tobacco. Implementation of the priority interventions, at an estimated global commitment of about US$9 billion per year, will bring enormous benefits to social and economic development and to the health sector. If widely adopted, these interventions will achieve the global goal of reducing NCD death rates by 2% per year, averting tens of millions of premature deaths in this decade.

Raising the priority of preventing chronic diseases: a political process.

Chronic diseases, especially cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancer, and chronic obstructive respiratory diseases,are neglected globally despite growing awareness of the serious burden that they cause. Global and national policies have failed to stop, and in many cases have contributed to, the chronic disease pandemic. Low-cost and highly effective solutions for the prevention of chronic diseases are readily available; the failure to respond is now a political, rather than a technical issue. We seek to understand this failure and to position chronic disease centrally on the global health and development agendas. To identify strategies for generation of increased political priority for chronic diseases and to further the involvement of development agencies, we use an adapted political process model. This model has previously been used to assess the success and failure of social movements. On the basis of this analysis,we recommend three strategies: reframe the debate to emphasise the societal determinants of disease and the interrelation between chronic disease, poverty, and development; mobilise resources through a cooperative and inclusive approach to development and by equitably distributing resources on the basis of avoidable mortality; and build one merging strategic and political opportunities, such as the World Health Assembly 2008­13 Action Plan and the high level meeting of the UN General Assembly in 2011 on chronic disease. Until the full set of threats­which include chronic disease­that trap poor households in cycles of debt and illness are addressed, progress towards equitable human development will remain inadequate.

Rights, knowledge, and governance for improved health equity in urban settings.

All three of the interacting aspects of daily urban life (physical environment, social conditions, and the added pressure of climate change) that affect health inequities are nested within the concept of urban governance, which has the task of understanding and managing the interactions among these different factors so that all three can be improved together and coherently. Governance is defined as: "the process of collective decision making and processes by which decisions are implemented or not implemented": it is concerned with the distribution, exercise, and consequences of power. Although there appears to be general agreement that the quality of governance is important for development, much less agreement appears to exist on what the concept really implies and how it should be used. Our review of the literature confirmed significant variation in meaning as well as in the practice of urban governance arrangements. The review found that the linkage between governance practices and health equity is under-researched and/or has been neglected. Reconnecting the fields of urban planning, social sciences, and public health are essential "not only for improving local governance, but also for understanding and addressing global political change" for enhanced urban health equity. Social mobilization, empowering governance, and improved knowledge for sustainable and equitable development in urban settings is urgently needed. A set of strategic research questions are suggested.

Young children's food in Liverpool day-care settings: a qualitative study of pre-school nutrition policy and practice.

OBJECTIVE: To explore nutrition and food provision in pre-school nurseries in order to develop interventions to promote healthy eating in early years settings, especially across deprived communities. DESIGN: An ethnographic approach was used combining participant observation with semi-structured interviews. Research participants were selected purposively using convenience sampling. SETTING: Community pre-school nurseries. SUBJECTS: Nursery managers (n 9), cooks (n 6), staff (n 12), parents (n 12) and children at six nurseries (four private and two attached to children's centres) in Liverpool, UK. RESULTS: Private nurseries had minimal access to information and guidelines. Most nurseries did not have a specific healthy eating policy but used menu planning to maintain a focus on healthy eating. No staff had training in healthy eating for children under the age of 5 years. However, enthusiasm and interest were widespread. The level and depth of communication between the nursery and parents was important. Meal times can be an important means of developing social skills and achieving Early Years Foundation Stage competencies. CONCLUSIONS: Nurseries are genuinely interested in providing appropriate healthy food for under-5s but require support. This includes: improved mechanisms for effective communication between all government levels as well as with nurseries; and funded training for cooks and managers in menu planning, cost-effective food sourcing and food preparation. Interventions to support healthy eating habits in young children developed at the area level need to be counterbalanced by continued appropriate national-level public health initiatives to address socio-economic differences.

The case for developing a cohesive systems approach to research across unhealthy commodity industries.

OBJECTIVES: Most non-communicable diseases are preventable and largely driven by the consumption of harmful products, such as tobacco, alcohol, gambling and ultra-processed food and drink products, collectively termed unhealthy commodities. This paper explores the links between unhealthy commodity industries (UCIs), analyses the extent of alignment across their corporate political strategies, and proposes a cohesive systems approach to research across UCIs. METHODS: We held an expert consultation on analysing the involvement of UCIs in public health policy, conducted an analysis of business links across UCIs, and employed taxonomies of corporate political activity to collate, compare and illustrate strategies employed by the alcohol, ultra-processed food and drink products, tobacco and gambling industries. RESULTS: There are clear commonalities across UCIs' strategies in shaping evidence, employing narratives and framing techniques, constituency building and policy substitution. There is also consistent evidence of business links between UCIs, as well as complex relationships with government agencies, often allowing UCIs to engage in policy-making forums. This knowledge indicates that the role of all UCIs in public health policy would benefit from a common approach to analysis. This enables the development of a theoretical framework for understanding how UCIs influence the policy process. It highlights the need for a deeper and broader understanding of conflicts of interests and how to avoid them; and a broader conception of what constitutes strong evidence generated by a wider range of research types. CONCLUSION: UCIs employ shared strategies to shape public health policy, protecting business interests, and thereby contributing to the perpetuation of non-communicable diseases. A cohesive systems approach to research across UCIs is required to deepen shared understanding of this complex and interconnected area and also to inform a more effective and coherent response.

Small changes in snacking behaviour: the potential impact on CVD mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the potential public health impact on CHD and stroke mortality of replacing one 'unhealthy' snack with one 'healthy' snack per person, per day, across the UK population. METHODS: Nutritional information was obtained for different 'unhealthy' (such as crisps, chocolate bars, cakes and pastries) and 'healthy' snack products (such as fresh fruit, dried fruit, unsalted nuts or seeds). Expected changes in dietary intake were calculated. The mean change in total blood cholesterol levels was estimated using the Keys equation. The effect of changing cholesterol and salt levels on CHD deaths and on stroke deaths was calculated using the appropriate equations from the Law and He meta-analyses. The estimated reductions in cardiovascular deaths were then tested in a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Substituting one 'healthy' snack would reduce saturated fat intake by approximately 4.4 g per person per day, resulting in approximately 2400 fewer CHD deaths and 425 fewer stroke deaths per year. The associated 500 mg decrease in salt intake would result in approximately 1790 fewer CHD deaths and 1330 fewer stroke deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Simply replacing one unhealthy snack with one healthy snack per day might prevent approximately 6000 cardiovascular deaths every year in the UK.

Quantifying the impact of the Public Health Responsibility Deal on salt intake, cardiovascular disease and gastric cancer burdens: interrupted time series and microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: In 2011, England introduced the Public Health Responsibility Deal (RD), a public-private partnership (PPP) which gave greater freedom to the food industry to set and monitor targets for salt intakes. We estimated the impact of the RD on trends in salt intake and associated changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer (GCa) incidence, mortality and economic costs in England from 2011-2025. METHODS: We used interrupted time series models with 24 hours' urine sample data and the IMPACTNCD microsimulation model to estimate impacts of changes in salt consumption on CVD and GCa incidence, mortality and economic impacts, as well as equity impacts. RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2010 mean salt intake was falling annually by 0.20 grams/day among men and 0.12 g/d among women (P-value for trend both < 0.001). After RD implementation in 2011, annual declines in salt intake slowed statistically significantly to 0.11 g/d among men and 0.07 g/d among women (P-values for differences in trend both P < 0.001). We estimated that the RD has been responsible for approximately 9900 (interquartile quartile range (IQR): 6700 to 13,000) additional cases of CVD and 1500 (IQR: 510 to 2300) additional cases of GCa between 2011 and 2018. If the RD continues unchanged between 2019 and 2025, approximately 26 000 (IQR: 20 000 to 31,000) additional cases of CVD and 3800 (IQR: 2200 to 5300) cases of GCa may occur. INTERPRETATION: Public-private partnerships such as the RD which lack robust and independent target setting, monitoring and enforcement are unlikely to produce optimal health gains.

Estimating the cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to the European Common Agricultural Policy on dietary saturated fats.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the burden of cardiovascular disease within 15 European Union countries (before the 2004 enlargement) as a result of excess dietary saturated fats attributable to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). METHODS: A spreadsheet model was developed to synthesize data on population, diet, cholesterol levels and mortality rates. A conservative estimate of a reduction in saturated fat consumption of just 2.2 g was chosen, representing 1% of daily energy intake. The fall in serum cholesterol concentration was then calculated, assuming that this 1% reduction in saturated fat consumption was replaced with 0.5% monounsaturated and 0.5% polyunsaturated fats. The resulting reduction in cardiovascular and stroke deaths was then estimated, and a sensitivity analysis conducted. FINDINGS: Reducing saturated fat consumption by 1% and increasing monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat by 0.5% each would lower blood cholesterol levels by approximately 0.06 mmol/l, resulting in approximately 9800 fewer coronary heart disease deaths and 3000 fewer stroke deaths each year. CONCLUSION: The cardiovascular disease burden attributable to CAP appears substantial. Furthermore, these calculations were conservative estimates, and the true mortality burden may be higher. The analysis contributes to the current wider debate concerning the relationship between CAP, health and chronic disease across Europe, together with recent international developments and commitments to reduce chronic diseases. The reported mortality estimates should be considered in relation to the current CAP and any future reforms.