Cohort bias in predictive risk assessments of future criminal justice system involvement.

Risk assessment instruments (RAIs) are widely used to aid high-stakes decision-making in criminal justice settings and other areas such as health care and child welfare. These tools, whether using machine learning or simpler algorithms, typically assume a time-invariant relationship between predictors and outcome. Because societies are themselves changing and not just individuals, this assumption may be violated in many behavioral settings, generating what we call cohort bias. Analyzing criminal histories in a cohort-sequential longitudinal study of children, we demonstrate that regardless of model type or predictor sets, a tool trained to predict the likelihood of arrest between the ages of 17 and 24 y on older birth cohorts systematically overpredicts the likelihood of arrest for younger birth cohorts over the period 1995 to 2020. Cohort bias is found for both relative and absolute risks, and it persists for all racial groups and within groups at highest risk for arrest. The results imply that cohort bias is an underappreciated mechanism generating inequality in contacts with the criminal legal system that is distinct from racial bias. Cohort bias is a challenge not only for predictive instruments with respect to crime and justice, but also for RAIs more broadly.

Recent Advances in Group-Based Trajectory Modeling for Clinical Research.

Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) identifies groups of individuals following similar trajectories of one or more repeated measures. The categorical nature of GBTM is particularly well suited to clinical psychology and medicine, where patients are often classified into discrete diagnostic categories. This review highlights recent advances in GBTM and key capabilities that remain underappreciated in clinical research. These include accounting for nonrandom subject attrition, joint trajectory and multitrajectory modeling, the addition of the beta distribution to modeling options, associating trajectories with future outcomes, and estimating the probability of future outcomes. Also discussed is an approach to selecting the number of trajectory groups.

Social change and cohort differences in group-based arrest trajectories over the last quarter-century.

This article draws on official criminal histories for multiple birth cohorts spanning a 17-y difference in birth year to study how social change can alter our understanding of influential theories and policies about criminal offender groups. Arrest histories are linked to comprehensive longitudinal measurement on over 1,000 individuals originally from Chicago. Using group-based trajectory modeling, we investigated the magnitude and type of cohort differences in trajectories of arrest over the period 1995 to 2020. Our results show that trajectory group membership varies strongly by birth cohort. Membership in the nonoffender group is nearly 15 percentage points higher for cohorts born in the mid-1990s as compared to those born in the 1980s; conversely, older cohorts are more likely to be members of adolescent-limited and chronic-offender groups. Large cohort differences in trajectory group membership persist after controlling for a wide-ranging set of demographic characteristics and early-life risk factors that vary by cohort and that prior research has identified as important influences on crime. Not only does the effect of social change on cohort differentiation persist, but its magnitude is comparable to-indeed larger than-differences in trajectory group membership associated with varying levels of self-control or by whether individuals grew up in high-poverty households. These results suggest that changes in the broader social environment shared by members of the same birth cohort are as powerful in shaping their trajectory group membership as classic predictors identified in prior research, a finding that carries implications for crime-control policies that rely on prediction.

Behaviors in kindergarten are associated with trajectories of long-term welfare receipt: A 30-year population-based study.

This study examines the link between behavior in kindergarten and adult-life welfare receipt. Teacher-rated behavioral assessments were obtained for inattention, hyperactivity, aggression-opposition, anxiety, and prosociality when children (n=2960) were aged 5-6 years and linked to their tax return records from age 18-35 years. We used group-based based trajectory modeling to identify distinct trajectories of welfare receipt and multinomial logistic regression models to examine the association between behaviors and trajectory group membership. The child's sex, IQ, and family background were adjusted for. Four trajectories of welfare receipt were identified: low (n = 2,390, 80.7%), declining (n = 260, 8.8%), rising (n = 150, 5.2%), and chronic (n = 160, 5.4%). Relative to the low trajectory, inattention and aggression-opposition at age 6 years were associated with increased risk of following a declining, rising, and chronic trajectory of welfare receipt, independent of hyperactivity and anxiety. Prosocial behaviors were independently associated with a lower risk of following a chronic trajectory. This study shows that kindergarten children exhibiting high inattention and aggression-opposition and low prosocial behaviors may be at increased risk of long-term welfare receipt in adulthood. The implications for early screening, monitoring, and prevention are discussed.

Mortality Risk in Pediatric Sepsis Based on C-reactive Protein and Ferritin Levels.

OBJECTIVES: Interest in using bedside C-reactive protein (CRP) and ferritin levels to identify patients with hyperinflammatory sepsis who might benefit from anti-inflammatory therapies has piqued with the COVID-19 pandemic experience. Our first objective was to identify patterns in CRP and ferritin trajectory among critically ill pediatric sepsis patients. We then examined the association between these different groups of patients in their inflammatory cytokine responses, systemic inflammation, and mortality risks. DATA SOURCES: A prospective, observational cohort study. STUDY SELECTION: Children with sepsis and organ failure in nine pediatric intensive care units in the United States. DATA EXTRACTION: Two hundred and fifty-five children were enrolled. Five distinct clinical multi-trajectory groups were identified. Plasma CRP (mg/dL), ferritin (ng/mL), and 31 cytokine levels were measured at two timepoints during sepsis (median Day 2 and Day 5). Group-based multi-trajectory models (GBMTM) identified groups of children with distinct patterns of CRP and ferritin. DATA SYNTHESIS: Group 1 had normal CRP and ferritin levels ( n = 8; 0% mortality); Group 2 had high CRP levels that became normal, with normal ferritin levels throughout ( n = 80; 5% mortality); Group 3 had high ferritin levels alone ( n = 16; 6% mortality); Group 4 had very high CRP levels, and high ferritin levels ( n = 121; 11% mortality); and Group 5 had very high CRP and very high ferritin levels ( n = 30; 40% mortality). Cytokine responses differed across the five groups, with ferritin levels correlated with macrophage inflammatory protein 1α levels and CRP levels reflective of many cytokines. CONCLUSIONS: Bedside CRP and ferritin levels can be used together to distinguish groups of children with sepsis who have different systemic inflammation cytokine responses and mortality risks. These data suggest future potential value in personalized clinical trials with specific targets for anti-inflammatory therapies.

A multi-trajectory analysis of commonly co-occurring mental health issues across childhood and adolescence.

Developmental trajectories of mental health issues can often be usefully summarised in a small number of clinically meaningful subtypes. Given the high levels of heterotypic and homotypic comorbidity in child and adolescent mental health symptoms, we explored whether it was possible to identify clinically meaningful developmental subtypes of multiple commonly co-occurring mental health issues. We evaluated the combined developmental trajectories of the most common and commonly co-occurring child and adolescent mental health issues: attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), internalising, and externalising symptoms in a normative sample of youth with data (n = 1620) at ages 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 15 using group-based multi-trajectory modelling. Multinomial logistic regression was used to evaluate predictors of group membership. Our optimal model included six trajectory groups, labelled 'unaffected', 'normative maturing', 'internalising', 'multimorbid late onset', 'multimorbid remitting', and 'multimorbid with remitting externalising'. Examining covariates of group membership suggested that males and bully victims tend to have complex mental health profiles; academic achievement and smoking during pregnancy have general associations with mental health irrespective of symptom developmental trajectories or combination; and maternal post-natal depression is primarily related to symptoms that are already in evidence by the beginning of the school years. Results suggest that developmental trajectories of commonly co-occurring mental health issues can be usefully summarised in terms of a small number of developmental subtypes. These subtypes more often than not involve multiple co-occurring mental health issues. Their association with mental health covariates depends on the combination and developmental timing of symptoms in ways that suggest they can be clinically informative.

Trajectories of adolescent poly-substance use and their long-term social and economic outcomes for males from low-income backgrounds.

Substance abuse is a significant public health concern that disproportionately burdens males and low-income communities. This study examined (1) longitudinal profiles of male adolescent poly-substance use and (2) their association with social and economic participation across early adulthood. Drawing on a cohort of males (n = 890) from low-income neighborhoods, we used group-based multi-trajectory modeling to identify profiles of poly-substance use (alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, illicit drugs) from age 13-17 years. Regression models were used to link substance use profiles to high school graduation, criminal convictions, personal and household earnings, welfare receipt and partnership from age 19-37 years, obtained from administrative records. Child IQ, family adversity and behavioral problems were adjusted for. Four poly-substance use profiles were identified: abstinent (n = 128, 14.4%), late-onset (n = 412, 46.5%), mid-onset (n = 249, 28.1%), and early-onset (n = 98, 11.1%). Relative to the late-onset (reference) group, participants in the early-onset profile were 3.0 times (95%CI = 1.68-5.53) more likely to have left school without a diploma, 2.7 times (95% CI = 1.56-4.68) more likely to have a criminal conviction by age 24 years, earned 10,185 USD less (95% CI = - 15,225- - 5144) per year at age 33-37 years and had 15,790 USD lower (95% CI = - 23,378- - 8218) household income at age 33-37 years, a 1.3 times (95%CI = 1.15-1.57) higher incidence of annual welfare receipt and a 24% (95% CI = 5-40) lower incidence of marriage/cohabitation from age 18-35 years. We show that adolescent-onset poly-substance use by age 13 is associated with poor social and economic outcomes. Delaying the onset of substance use and reducing exposure to additional substance classes has potential for high societal cost savings.

Young Adulthood Outcomes of Joint Mental Health Trajectories: A Group-Based Trajectory Model Analysis of a 13-Year Longitudinal Cohort Study.

Developmental trajectories of common mental health issues such as ADHD symptoms, internalising problems, and externalising problems can often be usefully summarised in terms of a small number of 'developmental subtypes' (e.g., 'childhood onset', 'adolescent onset') that may differ in their profiles or levels of clinically meaningful variables such as etiological risk factors. However, given the strong tendency for symptoms in these domains to co-occur, it is important to consider not only developmental subtypes in each domain individually, but also the joint developmental subtypes defined by symptoms trajectories in all three domains together (e.g., 'late onset multimorbid', 'pure internalising', 'early onset multimorbid'). Previous research has illuminated the joint developmental subtypes of ADHD symptoms, internalising problems, and externalising problems that emerge from normative longitudinal data using methods such as group-based trajectory modelling, as well as predictors of membership in these developmental subtypes. However, information on the long-term outcomes of developmental subtype membership is critical to illuminate the likely nature and intensity of support needs required for individuals whose trajectories fit different developmental subtypes. We, therefore, evaluated the relations between developmental subtypes previously derived using group-based trajectory modelling in the z-proso study (n = 1620 with trajectory data at ages 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15) and early adulthood outcomes. Individuals with multimorbid trajectories but not 'pure' internalising problem elevations showed higher levels of social exclusion and delinquency at age 20. These associations held irrespective of the specific developmental course of symptoms (e.g., early versus late onset versus remitting). There was also some evidence that intimate partner violence acts as a form of heterotypic continuity for earlier externalising problems. Results underline the need for early intervention to address the pathways that lead to social exclusion and delinquency among young people with multiple co-occurring mental health issues.

Behavior in childhood is associated with romantic partnering patterns in adulthood.

BACKGROUND: Most people will partner at some point during their lives. Yet little is known about the association between childhood behavior and patterns of long-term romantic partnering in adulthood. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, behavioral ratings were prospectively obtained from teachers when children (n = 2,960) were aged 10-12 years - for inattention, hyperactivity, aggression-opposition, anxiety, and prosociality - and linked to their tax return records from age 18 to 35 years (1998-2015). We used group-based based trajectory modeling to estimate the probability of partnership (marriage/cohabitation) over time and multinomial logistic regression models to examine the association between childhood behavior and trajectory group membership. The child's sex and family socioeconomic background were adjusted for. RESULTS: Five distinct trajectories of partnering were identified: early-partnered (n = 420, 14.4%), mid-partnered (n = 620, 21.3%), late-partnered (n = 570, 19.2%), early-partnered-separated (n = 460, 15.5%), and delayed-or-unpartnered (n = 890, 30.0%). Participants in the early-partnered-separated and delayed-or-unpartnered trajectories were more likely to have left high school without a diploma and to have lower earnings and higher welfare receipt from age 18 to 35 years. After adjustment for sex and family background, inattention and aggression-opposition were uniquely and additively associated with increased likelihood of following an early-partnered-separated trajectory, while inattention and anxiety were associated with an increased likelihood of following a delayed-or-unpartnered trajectory. Childhood prosocial behaviors were consistently associated with earlier and more sustained patterns of partnership. CONCLUSIONS: Children with behavioral problems are more likely to separate or to be unpartnered across early adulthood. This may have consequences for their psychological health and wellbeing and that of their families.

Inattention in boys from low-income backgrounds predicts welfare receipt: a 30-year prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood disruptive behaviors are highly prevalent and associated with adverse long-term social and economic outcomes. Trajectories of welfare receipt in early adulthood and the association of childhood behaviors with high welfare receipt trajectories have not been examined. METHODS: Boys (n = 1000) from low socioeconomic backgrounds were assessed by kindergarten teachers for inattention, hyperactivity, aggression, opposition, and prosociality, and prospectively followed up for 30 years. We used group-base trajectory modeling to estimate trajectories of welfare receipt from age 19-36 years using government tax return records, then examined the association between teacher-rated behaviors and trajectory group membership using mixed effects multinomial regression models. RESULTS: Three trajectories of welfare receipt were identified: low (70.8%), declining (19.9%), and chronic (9.3%). The mean annual personal employment earnings (US$) for the three groups at age 35/36 years was $36 500 (s.d. = $24 000), $15 600 (s.d. = $16 275), and $1700 (s.d. = $4800), respectively. Relative to the low welfare receipt group, a unit increase in inattention (mean = 2.64; s.d. = 2.32, range = 0-8) at age 6 was associated with an increased risk of being in the chronic group (relative risk ratio; RRR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.03-1.31) and in the declining group (RRR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.03-1.23), after adjustment for child IQ and family adversity, and independent of other behaviors. Family adversity was more strongly associated with trajectories of welfare receipt than any behavior. CONCLUSIONS: Boys from disadvantaged backgrounds exhibiting high inattention in kindergarten are at elevated risk of chronic welfare receipt during adulthood. Screening and support for inattentive behaviors beginning in kindergarten could have long-term social and economic benefits for individuals and society.

Assessing benefits, costs, and disparate racial impacts of confrontational proactive policing.

Effective policing in a democratic society must balance the sometime conflicting objectives of public safety and community trust. This paper uses a formal model of optimal policing to explore how society might reasonably resolve the tension between these two objectives as well as evaluate disparate racial impacts. We do so by considering the social benefits and costs of confrontational types of proactive policing, such as stop, question, and frisk. Three features of the optimum that are particularly relevant to policy choices are explored: (i) the cost of enforcement against the innocent, (ii) the baseline level of crime rate without confrontational enforcement, and (iii) differences across demographic groups in the optimal rate of enforcement.

Multi-rater developmental trajectories of hyperactivity-impulsivity and inattention symptoms from 1.5 to 17 years: a population-based birth cohort study.

The developmental course of hyperactivity-impulsivity and inattention symptoms from infancy to adolescence has not been documented in a population sample. The aim of this study was to describe the developmental course of hyperactivity-impulsivity and inattention symptoms from 1.5 to 17 years using multiple informants, and to identify perinatal risk factors associated with following elevated (high-risk) trajectories. Using a population-based birth cohort (n = 1374), symptom ratings from mothers (1.5-8 years), teachers (6-13 years) and participant self-reports (10-17 years) were combined using group-based multi-trajectory modeling to identify informants' convergence in identifying high-symptom trajectories of hyperactivity-impulsivity and inattention over time. Perinatal risk factors associated with high-symptom trajectories were identified using stepwise logistic regression. The study found that symptoms of hyperactivity-impulsivity broadly declined from 1.5 to 17 years while symptoms of inattention remained constant. 21.4% of participants followed elevated trajectories of hyperactivity-impulsivity and 20.2% followed elevated trajectories of inattention; 11.6% followed elevated trajectories of both types of symptoms concurrently. Risk factors for high-risk trajectories of hyperactivity-impulsivity were low maternal education, prenatal alcohol exposure, non-intact family, maternal depression, and low child IQ; for high-risk inattention they were prenatal street drug exposure, early motherhood, low maternal education, maternal depression and low child IQ. Risk factors for trajectories of high-risk hyperactivity-impulsivity and inattention concurrently were low maternal education, maternal depression, and low child IQ. The combination of longitudinal assessments from multiple informants (i.e., mother, teacher, participant-reports) provides a new way to characterize hyperactivity-impulsivity and inattention phenotypes over time.

Using the Beta distribution in group-based trajectory models.

BACKGROUND: We demonstrate an application of Group-Based Trajectory Modeling (GBTM) based on the beta distribution. It is offered as an alternative to the normal distribution for modeling continuous longitudinal data that are poorly fit by the normal distribution even with censoring. The primary advantage of the beta distribution is the flexibility of the shape of the density function. METHODS: GBTM is a specialized application of finite mixture modeling designed to identify clusters of individuals who follow similar trajectories. Like all finite mixture models, GBTM requires that the distribution of the data composing the mixture be specified. To our knowledge this is the first demonstration of the use of the beta distribution in GBTM. A case study of a beta-based GBTM analyzes data on the neurological activity of comatose cardiac arrest patients. RESULTS: The case study shows that the summary measure of neurological activity, the suppression ratio, is not well fit by the normal distribution but due to the flexibility of the shape of the beta density function, the distribution of the suppression ratio by trajectory appears to be well matched by the estimated beta distribution by group. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of the beta distribution to the already available distributional alternatives in software for estimating GBTM is a valuable augmentation to extant distributional alternatives.

Group-based trajectory modeling: an overview.

This article provides an overview of a group-based statistical methodology for analyzing developmental trajectories - the evolution of an outcome over age or time. Across all application domains, this group-based statistical method lends itself to the presentation of findings in the form of easily understood graphical and tabular data summaries. In so doing, the method provides statistical researchers with a tool for figuratively painting a statistical portrait of the predictors and consequences of distinct trajectories of development. Data summaries of this form have the great advantage of being accessible to nontechnical audiences and quickly comprehensible to audiences that are technically sophisticated. Examples of the application of the method are provided. A detailed account of the statistical underpinnings of the method and a full range of applications are provided by the author in a previous study.

Effects of a universal parenting program for highly adherent parents: a propensity score matching approach.

This paper examines the effectiveness of a group-based universal parent training program as a strategy to improve parenting practices and prevent child problem behavior. In a dissemination trial, 56 schools were first selected through a stratified sampling procedure, and then randomly allocated to treatment conditions. 819 parents of year 1 primary school children in 28 schools were offered Triple P. 856 families in 28 schools were allocated to the control condition. Teacher, primary caregiver and child self-report data were collected at baseline, post, and two follow-up assessments. Analyses were constrained to highly adherent parents who completed all four units of the parenting program. A propensity score matching approach was used to compare parents fully exposed to the intervention with parents in the control condition, who were matched on 54 baseline characteristics. Results suggest that the intervention had no consistent effects on either five dimensions of parenting practices or five dimensions of child problem behavior, assessed by three different informants. These findings diverge from findings reported by program developers and distributors. Potential explanations for the discrepancy and implications for future research are discussed.

Bayesian Outcome Prediction After Resuscitation From Cardiac Arrest.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Postarrest prognostication research does not typically account for the sequential nature of real-life data acquisition and interpretation and reports nonintuitive estimates of uncertainty. Bayesian approaches offer advantages well suited to prognostication. We used Bayesian regression to explore the usefulness of sequential prognostic indicators in the context of prior knowledge and compared this with a guideline-concordant algorithm. METHODS: We included patients hospitalized at a single center after cardiac arrest. We extracted prospective data and assumed these data accrued over time as in routine practice. We considered predictors demographic and arrest characteristics, initial and daily neurologic examination, laboratory results, therapeutic interventions, brain imaging, and EEG. We fit Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear multivariate models predicting discharge Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) 4 or 5 (poor outcomes) vs 1-3 including sequential clinical and prognostic data. We explored outcome posterior probability distributions (PPDs) for individual patients and overall. As a comparator, we applied the 2021 European Resuscitation Council and European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ERC/ESICM) guidelines. RESULTS: We included 2,692 patients of whom 864 (35%) were discharged with a CPC 1-3. Patients' outcome PPDs became narrow and shifted toward 0 or 1 as sequentially acquired information was added to models. These changes were largest after arrest characteristics and initial neurologic examination were included. Using information typically available at or before intensive care unit admission, sensitivity predicting poor outcome was 51% with a 0.6% false-positive rate. In our most comprehensive model, sensitivity for poor outcome prediction was 76% with 0.6% false-positive rate (FPR). The ERC/ESICM algorithm applied to 547 of 2,692 patients and yielded 36% sensitivity with 0% FPR. DISCUSSION: Bayesian models offer advantages well suited to prognostication research. On balance, our findings support the view that in expert hands, accurate neurologic prognostication is possible in many cases before 72 hours postarrest. Although we caution against early withdrawal of life-sustaining therapies, rapid outcome prediction can inform clinical decision making and future clinical trials.

The neurocognition of conduct disorder behaviors: specificity to physical aggression and theft after controlling for ADHD symptoms.

There is growing evidence that among the different conduct disorder (CD) behaviors, physical aggression, but not theft, links to low neurocognitive abilities. Specifically, physical aggression has consistently been found to be negatively related to neurocognitive abilities, whereas theft has been shown to be either positively or not related to neurocognition. The specificity of these links needs further examination because attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) links to both physical aggression and neurocognitive variation. The development of self-reported physical aggression and theft, from age 11 to 17 years, was studied in a prospective at-risk male cohort via a dual process latent growth curve model. Seven neurocognitive tests at age 20 were regressed on the growth parameters of physical aggression and theft. The links between neurocognition and the growth parameters of physical aggression and theft were adjusted for ADHD symptoms at ages 11 and 15 (parent, child and teacher reports). Results indicated that verbal abilities were negatively related to physical aggression while they were positively associated with theft. However, inductive reasoning was negatively associated with increases in theft across adolescence. Symptoms of ADHD accounted for part of the neurocognitive test links with physical aggression but did not account for the associations with theft. These differences emphasize the importance of examining specific CD behaviors to better understand their neurodevelopmental mechanisms. They also suggest that youth who engage in different levels of physical aggression or theft behaviors may require different preventive and corrective interventions.

Trajectories of Follow-up Compliance in a Fracture Liaison Service and Their Predictors: A Longitudinal Group-Based Trajectory Analysis.

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES: Identification of groups of patients following similar trajectories of time-varying patient characteristics are often of considerable clinical value. This study provides an example of how the identification of trajectory groups of patients can be useful. METHODS: Using clinical and administrative data of a prospective cohort study aiming to improve the secondary prevention of osteoporosis-related fractures with a Fracture Liaison Service (FLS), trajectory groups for visit compliance over time (2-year follow-up) were predicted using group-based trajectory modeling. Predictors of trajectory groups were identified using multinomial logistic regressions. RESULTS: Among 532 participants (86% women, mean age 63 years), three trajectories were identified and interpreted as high followers, intermediate followers, and low followers. The predicted probability for group-membership was: 48.4% high followers, 28.1% intermediate followers, 23.5% low followers. A lower femoral bone mineral density and polypharmacy were predictors of being in the high followers compared to the low followers group; predictors for being in the intermediate followers group were polypharmacy and referral to a bone specialist at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Results provided information on visit compliance patterns and predictors for the patients undergoing the intervention. This information has important implications when implementing such health services and determining their effectiveness.

Group-based trajectory modeling in clinical research.

Group-based trajectory models are increasingly being applied in clinical research to map the developmental course of symptoms and assess heterogeneity in response to clinical interventions. In this review, we provide a nontechnical overview of group-based trajectory and growth mixture modeling alongside a sampling of how these models have been applied in clinical research. We discuss the challenges associated with the application of both types of group-based models and propose a set of preliminary guidelines for applied researchers to follow when reporting model results. Future directions in group-based modeling applications are discussed, including the use of trajectory models to facilitate causal inference when random assignment to treatment condition is not possible.

Trajectories of childhood sexual abuse and early adolescent HIV/AIDS risk behaviors: the role of other maltreatment, witnessed violence, and child gender.

Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) has been associated with HIV/AIDS risk behavior; however, much of this work is retrospective and focuses on women. The current study used semi-parametric mixture modeling with youth (n = 844; 48.8% boys) from the Longitudinal Studies of Child Abuse and Neglect (LONGSCAN) to examine the link between trajectories of CSA (2 to 12 years old) and HIV/AIDS risk behavior at age 14 (i.e., sexual intercourse & alcohol use). Trajectory analyses revealed a link between a history of CSA and the development of risky behavior. In addition, trajectories for physical and emotional abuse, but not neglect or witnessed violence, contributed to risky behavior over and above the role of CSA. Child gender did not moderate the findings. Findings highlight the significance of CSA histories, as well as the broader context of maltreatment, for better understanding the development of risk behaviors in both girls and boys.