Impact of time from diagnosis to chemotherapy on prognosis in advanced pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Due to the aggressive nature and poor prognosis of advanced pancreatic cancer, prompt initiation of treatment is critical. We investigated the effect of the interval between cancer diagnosis and initiation of chemotherapy on survival in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer. METHODS: In this retrospective, single-centre study, consecutive patients with advanced pancreatic cancer between April 2013 and March 2022 were analyzed. Data were extracted from the electronic medical records of patients who received chemotherapy for metastatic, locally advanced or resectable pancreatic cancer or who received chemotherapy due to either being intolerant of or declining surgery. We compared overall survival between two groups: the early waiting time group (waiting time ≤30 days from diagnosis to chemotherapy initiation) and the elective waiting time group (waiting time ≥31 days). Prognostic factors, including biliary drainage, were considered. The impact of waiting time on survival was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses with Cox proportional hazard models. A 1:1 propensity score matching approach was used to balance bias, accounting for significant poor prognosis factors, age and sex. RESULTS: The study involved 137 patients. Overall survival exhibited no statistically significant difference between the early and elective waiting time groups (207 and 261 days, P = 0.2518). Univariate and multivariate analyses identified poor performance status and metastasis presence as predictors of worse prognosis. This finding persisted post propensity score matching (275 and 222 days, P = 0.8223). CONCLUSIONS: Our study revealed that initiating chemotherapy ˃30 days later does not significantly affect treatment efficacy compared to within 30 days of diagnosis.

Endoscopic Features of Synchronous Multiple Early Gastric Cancers: Findings from a Nationwide Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: We investigated the factors associated with synchronous multiple early gastric cancers and determined their localization. METHODS: We analyzed 8,191 patients who underwent endoscopic submucosal dissection for early gastric cancers at 33 hospitals in Japan from November 2013 to October 2016. Background factors were compared between single-lesion (n = 7,221) and synchronous multi-lesion cases (n = 970) using univariate and multivariate analyses. We extracted cases with two synchronous lesions (n = 832) and evaluated their localization. RESULTS: Significant independent risk factors for synchronous multiple early gastric cancer were older age (≥75 years old) (odds ratio [OR] = 1.257), male sex (OR = 1.385), severe mucosal atrophy (OR = 1.400), tumor localization in the middle (OR = 1.362) or lower region (OR = 1.404), and submucosal invasion (OR = 1.528 [SM1], 1.488 [SM2]). Depressed macroscopic type (OR = 0.679) and pure undifferentiated histology OR = 0.334) were more common in single early gastric cancers. When one lesion was in the upper region, the other was more frequently located in the lesser curvature of the middle region. When one lesion was in the middle region, the other was more frequently located in the middle region or the lesser curvature of the lower region. When one lesion was in the lower region, the other was more frequently located in the lesser curvature of the middle region or the lower region. CONCLUSION: Factors associated with synchronous multiple early gastric cancer included older age, male sex, severe mucosal atrophy, tumor localization in the middle or lower region, and tumor submucosal invasion. Our findings provide useful information regarding specific areas that should be examined carefully when one lesion is detected.

Association between perioperative management of antiplatelet agents and risk of post-endoscopic submucosal dissection bleeding in early gastric cancer: analysis of a nationwide multicenter study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Data are lacking regarding post-endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) bleeding in patients with early gastric cancer (EGC) who take antiplatelet agents (APAs), particularly in those taking thienopyridine and cilostazol. We aimed to clarify the association between the status of APA medication and post-ESD bleeding risk. METHODS: This study is a secondary analysis using data from a recently conducted nationwide multicenter study in Japan. We retrospectively reviewed patients treated with APAs or on no antithrombotic therapy recruited from 33 institutions who underwent ESD for EGC between November 2013 and October 2016. The primary outcome of this study was the relationship between the rate of post-ESD bleeding and the status of each APA medication. RESULTS: A total of 9736 patients were included in the analysis. Among 665 aspirin users, the continuation group was significantly associated with post-ESD bleeding (odds ratio [OR], 2.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.77-4.37). Among 227 thienopyridine users, the aspirin or cilostazol replacement group was not significantly associated with post-ESD bleeding (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, .72-4.78). Among 158 cilostazol users, there was no significant association with post-ESD bleeding, irrespective of medication status. The rate of post-ESD bleeding was approximately 10% to 20% irrespective of the status of APA administration among dual-antiplatelet therapy users. No patients experienced thromboembolic events in this study. CONCLUSIONS: Replacement of thienopyridine with aspirin or cilostazol may be acceptable for minimizing both the risk of post-ESD bleeding and thromboembolism in patients with EGC. In patients on cilostazol monotherapy undergoing ESD, continuation of therapy may be acceptable.

Impact of Initial Body Weight Loss on Prognosis in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer: Insights From a Single-Center Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer (PC) has a poor prognosis, with body weight loss commonly observed at diagnosis. However, the impact on PC prognosis of weight loss at the time of diagnosis on PC prognosis is unknown. METHODS: This retrospective, single-center study enrolled consecutively patients diagnosed with metastatic or locally advanced PC or resectable PC who were intolerant of or refused surgery. Patients who had lost more than 5% of their body weight or more than 2% and had a body mass index (BMI) of less than 20 kg/m2 at diagnosis were classified as experiencing body weight loss. Patients were subclassified into 2 groups: patients with and without weight loss. The study evaluated patient-related and PC-related factors affecting prognosis. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess factors affecting prognosis. The primary endpoint was overall survival. Additionally, 1:1 propensity score matching was performed to reduce bias. RESULTS: In total, 220 patients were included in the study. The median age of the patients was 74 years, and 49.1% were male. Weight loss at diagnosis was observed in 43.2% of patients. There were no significant differences in clinical factors, except for anthropometric parameters, between the groups. The median survival time did not differ between the weight loss and no weight loss groups (149 and 173 days, respectively, P = .669). After matching, no significant differences in survival times were observed between the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: This study found no association between weight loss at diagnosis and prognosis in patients with advanced PC treated with best supportive care or chemotherapy.

Gastrointestinal symptoms in 609 Japanese patients with COVID-19: a single-center retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: GI symptoms are common in acute COVID-19 patients. This study aimed to characterize the GI symptoms occurring in Japanese COVID-19 patients. METHODS: This retrospective single-center cohort study included 751 hospitalized acute COVID-19 patients. The primary outcomes were the frequency and severity of GI symptoms. The secondary outcomes included the association between COVID-19 severity and GI symptoms and the timing of GI symptom onset. RESULTS: After exclusion, the data of 609 patients were analyzed. The median age was 62 years, and 55% were male. The median time from initial symptom onset to admission was five days. On admission, 92% of the patients had fever, 35.1% had fatigue, 75% had respiratory symptoms, and 75% had pneumonia. The sample included patients with mild (19%), moderate (59%), and severe COVID-19 (22%). A total of 218 patients (36%) had GI symptoms, of which 93% were classified as grade 1/2; 170 patients had both respiratory and GI symptoms. Diarrhea was the most frequent GI symptom, occurring in 170 patients, followed by anorexia in 73 patients and nausea/vomiting in 36 patients, and abdominal pain in 8 patients. There was no significant relationship between COVID-19 severity and GI symptoms. Among COVID-19 patients with both GI and respiratory symptoms, 48% had respiratory symptoms preceding GI symptoms, 25% had GI symptoms preceding respiratory symptoms and 27% had a simultaneous onset of respiratory and GI symptoms. CONCLUSION: Thirty-six percent of the Japanese COVID-19 patients had GI symptoms; diarrhea was the most frequent GI symptom but did not predict severe COVID-19.

Endoscopic features and clinical course of colorectal carcinoma resected by cold snare polypectomy.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Cold snare polypectomy is commonly performed to remove small colorectal polyps. Accidental resection of carcinomas during this procedure has been reported. Herein, we aimed to clarify the clinicopathological features and clinical course of colorectal carcinomas resected by cold snare polypectomy. METHODS: This multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted at 10 Japanese healthcare centers. Of the colorectal lesions resected by cold snare polypectomy between April 2016 and March 2020, lesions pathologically diagnosed as carcinoma were reviewed. Centralized histology (based on the Vienna classification) and endoscopic reviews were performed. The study endpoints were endoscopic features and clinical outcomes of cold snare polypectomy-resected colorectal carcinomas (Vienna category ≥4.2). RESULTS: We reviewed 74 of the 70 693 lesions resected by cold snare polypectomy. After a central pathological review, 68 lesions were diagnosed as carcinomas. The Japan Narrow-band imaging Expert Team (JNET) classification type 2B, lesion size ≥6 mm, and multinodular morphology were the significant endoscopic predictors of carcinoma resected by cold snare polypectomy. No adverse events related to the procedure occurred. Sixty-three lesions were diagnosed as carcinomas within the mucosal layer, and 34 were curative resections. Of the five carcinoma lesions with submucosal invasion, additional surgery revealed remnant cancer tissues in one lesion. No local or metastatic recurrence was observed during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Although most of the carcinomas resected by cold snare polypectomy were within the mucosal layer, few lesions invading the submucosa were identified. Careful pre-procedural endoscopic evaluation, especially focusing on the JNET classification and multinodular morphology, is recommended.

Diagnostic value of endoscopic ultrasonography for the depth of gastric cancer suspected of submucosal invasion: a multicenter prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Although the combination of conventional endoscopy (CE) and endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) is useful for predicting the depth of early gastric cancer (EGC), the diagnostic value of EUS for submucosal (SM) invasive cancer has not been fully investigated. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter prospective study from May 2017 to January 2021 to evaluate the validity of a diagnostic strategy combining CE and EUS and to clarify the additional value of EUS for EGC suspected of SM invasion. In each case, the diagnosis was first made using CE, followed by EUS, and finally confirmed using a combination algorithm. RESULTS: A total of 180 patients with EGC were enrolled from 10 institutions, of which 175 were analyzed. The histopathological depths were M, SM1, SM2, and ≥ MP in 72, 16, 64, and 23 lesions, respectively. Treatment included 92 endoscopic submucosal dissection cases and 83 surgical cases. The overall diagnostic accuracy classified by M-SM1 or SM2-MP was 58.3% for CE, 75.7% for EUS, and 78.9% for the combination of CE and EUS; the latter two were significantly higher than that of CE alone (P < 0.001). The CE, EUS, and combination accuracy rates in 108 differentiated-type lesions were 51.9%, 77.4%, and 79.6%, respectively; the latter two were significantly higher than CE alone (P < 0.001). A significant additive effect of EUS was observed in CE-SM2 low-confidence lesions but not in CE-M-SM1 lesions or in CE-SM2 high-confidence lesions. Among the nine CE findings, irregular surface, submucosal tumor-like elevation, and non-extension signs were significant independent markers of pSM2-MP. Poorly delineated EUS lesions were misdiagnosed. CONCLUSIONS: EUS provides additional value for differentiated-type and CE-SM2 low-confidence EGCs in diagnosing invasion depth. CLINICAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UMIN000025862.

Stratification Based on Risk Factors at Diagnosis Could Predict Progression in Patients with Pancreatic Cysts.

BACKGROUND: Predicting the risk of malignant transformation in pancreatic cyst patients is challenging. AIM: We retrospectively investigated the risk factors for malignant transformation in pancreatic cyst patients. METHODS: Patients with pancreatic cysts diagnosed using imaging tests were followed from November 2008 to December 2021. A significant change was defined as the additional development of high-risk stigmata (HRS), worrisome features (WFs), or pancreatic cancer during monitoring. RESULTS: In total, 479 patients were analyzed, with a median observation period of 50 months. Forty-four patients (9.2%) showed significant changes, and eight (1.7%) developed pancreatic cancer. The univariate analysis showed that the cyst diameter at diagnosis (≥ 14 mm), main pancreatic duct (MPD) diameter at diagnosis (≥ 3 mm), presence of multilocular cysts, and an inconsistent MPD caliber were significant predictive factors for a significant change. One point was assigned for each significant factor. We grouped the patients into three groups: the low-risk group (total score 0), medium-risk group (score 1-2), and high-risk group (score 3-4). The high-risk group had a higher risk of a significant change than the medium- and low-risk groups (age-adjusted HRs for the medium-risk and high-risk groups were 3.0 and 5.2 compared with the low-risk group). CONCLUSION: Stratification based on risk factors may help predict the development of significant changes in pancreatic cyst patients.

Predictive factors of collateral vessel development induced by oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Oxaliplatin can lead to hepatic sinusoidal injury, called hepatic sinusoidal obstruction syndrome (SOS), resulting in portal hypertension-related complications. This could worsen the clinical course of the patients treated with oxaliplatin. Early diagnosis is challenging. We explored predictive markers of oxaliplatin-induced collateral vessels. METHODS: Patients who received oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy were retrospectively screened. We evaluated their laboratory findings and spleen size on computed tomography immediately before oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy and after 6 months of treatment. The primary outcome was collateral vessel development, as a surrogate marker for oxaliplatin-induced SOS in patients who underwent oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy. The secondary outcome was the identification of factors that predicted the development of collateral vessels. RESULTS: We enrolled 161 patients who received oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy. They had a median age of 69 years, and 63.3% were men. Collateral vessels developed in nine (5.6%) patients during the study period. After oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy, the spleen size increased in 104 patients (64.6%), with a ≥ 30% increase in 19.4% of the patients. Univariate analysis showed that the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index (≥ 1.76; OR 9.17), aspartate aminotransferase:platelet ratio index (APRI) (≥ 0.193; OR 9.62), cumulative dose of oxaliplatin (≥ 1000 mg; OR 8.43), and increase in spleen size (≥ 30%; OR 6.01) were significant risk factors for collateral vessel development. Multivariate analysis after stepwise selection revealed that the FIB-4 index and spleen size were significant independent predictive factors. CONCLUSION: A ≥ 1.76 increase in the FIB-4 index and a ≥ 30% increase in spleen size after 6 months of oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy were significant predictive markers for collateral vessel development.

Classification and clinical features of adverse drug reactions in patients with ulcerative colitis treated with 5-aminosalicylate acid: a single-center, observational study.

BACKGROUND: 5-Aminosalicylate acid (5-ASA) is a crucial drug for ulcerative colitis (UC) patients. 5-ASA has several side effects. However, the types of side effects vary and are sometimes severe. METHODS: A single-center, retrospective cohort study was conducted from September 2001 to June 2020. We surveyed consecutive UC patients who visited our hospital and investigated adverse drug reactions (ADRs) related to 5-ASA formulations. We grouped patients into four subgroups: (1) lupus-like symptoms, (2) blood test abnormalities, (3) mimicking IBD exacerbation and (4) others. Their clinical courses were evaluated. RESULTS: We surveyed 288 consecutive UC patients, 35 of whom developed ADRs of any grade (12.9%), and analyzed 27 patients. The median age and 5-ASA doses were 43 years and 4000 mg, respectively, and 48% were male. The ADR triggers were the first use of 5-ASA (n = 17, 63%), 5-ASA switch (n = 9, 33%) and 5-ASA dose escalation (n = 1, 3.7%). The median time to ADR was 15 days (IQR: 7, 63). Ten patients (37%) had grade 3/4 ADRs. Fever was the most common ADR (n = 6, 23%), followed by hyperamylasemia and headache (n = 4, 15%). Lupus-like symptoms accounted for 56% (n = 15), blood test abnormalities for 26% (n = 7), mimicking IBD exacerbation for 15% (n = 4) and others for 3.7% (n = 1). The time to ADR was shorter in the mimicking IBD exacerbation group (median 11 days) than in the lupus-like symptoms (22 days) and blood test abnormalities (55 days) groups. CONCLUSION: Classification of ADRs related to 5-ASA into four groups might lead to early recognition of ADRs.

Local recurrence after endoscopic resection of sessile serrated lesions: A multicenter prospective study by the Osaka Gut Forum.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Sessile serrated lesions (SSLs) act as precursors to colorectal cancer, sometimes harbor carcinomas, and are sometimes incompletely resected. We aimed to evaluate local recurrence after endoscopic resection of SSL ≥10 mm. METHODS: This prospective, single-arm, observational study was performed at eight Japanese tertiary institutions. Colorectal lesions ≥10 mm were resected endoscopically, and the pathological diagnosis was either an SSL or hyperplastic polyp (HP). Follow-up colonoscopy was performed 1 year later, and the local recurrence was evaluated by biopsy. RESULTS: From October 2018 to September 2021, 104 cases with 123 lesions were registered. Among the pathologically diagnosed 105 SSLs and 18 HPs, 95 and 7 lesions were diagnosed as SSLs and HPs, respectively, by central pathological review. Among the 104 endoscopically diagnosed SSLs, 86 were diagnosed as SSLs, whereas among the 11 endoscopically diagnosed HPs, two were diagnosed as HPs by central pathological review (the rest were SSLs). Among the 95 patients with 113 lesions who underwent follow-up colonoscopy, resection scars were identified in 95 (84%) lesions. Three (3.1%; 95% confidence interval 0.6-8.7%) local recurrences were diagnosed pathologically among 98 pathologically diagnosed SSLs. Two (6%) local recurrences were diagnosed in patients with SSLs ≥20 mm. CONCLUSIONS: The local recurrence rate after endoscopic resection of SSLs ≥10 mm was 3.1%. Careful follow-up is recommended after endoscopic resection of large SSLs. Endoscopically diagnosed HPs ≥10 mm were sometimes pathologically diagnosed as SSL and should be considered for resection.

The degree of mucosal atrophy is associated with post-endoscopic submucosal dissection bleeding in early gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Despite the widespread use of endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for early gastric cancer, post-ESD bleeding remains a significant problem. Intragastric pH plays an important role in intragastric bleeding. Because gastric acid secretion contributes to intragastric pH, both the presence or absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and the degree of gastric mucosal atrophy may affect bleeding. The present study aimed to clarify the relationship between post-ESD bleeding and the degree of gastric mucosal atrophy based on H. pylori infection status. METHODS: We included 8170 patients who underwent ESD for early gastric cancer at 33 hospitals in Japan from November 2013 to October 2016. We analyzed the risk factors contributing to post-ESD bleeding. RESULTS: There were 3935 H. pylori-positive patients and 4235 H. pylori-negative patients. A nonsevere degree of gastric mucosal atrophy was an independent risk factor for post-ESD bleeding in H. pylori-negative patients (odds ratio: 1.51, P = 0.007), but not in H. pylori-positive patients (odds ratio: 0.91, P = 0.600). Further, in H. pylori-negative, but not H. pylori-positive, patients, the rate of post-ESD bleeding increased in a stepwise manner for patients continuing antithrombotic drug use, patients who withdrew antithrombotic drug use, and antithrombotic drug nonusers. CONCLUSIONS: Nonsevere gastric mucosal atrophy was a risk factor for post-ESD bleeding in early gastric cancer in H. pylori-negative patients but not in H. pylori-positive patients.

Bleeding following Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection for Early Gastric Cancer in Surgically Altered Stomach.

INTRODUCTION: Few studies have focused on bleeding following endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) in surgically altered stomach. We aimed to reveal the bleeding risk in surgically altered stomach following ESD for early gastric cancer (EGC). METHODS: We enrolled patients with ESD for EGC at 33 institutions between 2013 and 2016. In study 1, we evaluated bleeding risk following ESD in surgically altered stomach, compared with whole stomach. In study 2, we evaluated factors associated with bleeding following ESD in patients with surgically altered stomach. RESULTS: Of 11,452 patients, 445 patients had surgically altered stomach with the bleeding rate following ESD of 4.9%. In study 1, the bleeding risk in surgically altered stomach was not significant (odds ratio [OR], 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87-2.17) in the multivariate logistic regression analysis. No significant results were obtained when the surgically altered stomach was subdivided into various types. In study 2, the multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that independent risk factors for bleeding following ESD were ischemic heart disease (OR, 7.52; 95% CI, 2.00-28.25) and P2Y12 receptor antagonist (OR, 4.81; 95% CI, 1.21-19.14). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: In this nationwide study, we found that the bleeding risk of surgically altered stomach following ESD for EGC did not significantly differ from that of whole stomach. The risk factors for ESD in patients with surgically altered stomach were ischemic heart disease and P2Y12 receptor antagonist.

Influence of hospital volume on bleeding after endoscopic submucosal dissection for early gastric cancer in Japan: a multicenter propensity score-matched analysis.

BACKGROUND: Information on whether there is a relationship between hospital volume and bleeding after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for early gastric cancer (EGC) is limited. This study aimed to compare the bleeding rates after ESD for EGC according to the hospital volume. METHODS: Patients who underwent ESD for EGC at 33 institutions in Japan between November 2013 and October 2016 were included in this multicenter retrospective study. Hospital volume was categorized into three groups, based on the average annual number of ESD procedures: low- and medium-volume group (LMVG), high-volume group (HVG), and very high-volume group (VHVG). The bleeding rate after ESD for EGC was compared between the three hospital volume groups after propensity score matching. RESULTS: A total of 10,320 patients, including 2797 patients in the LMVG, 4646 patients in the HVG, and 2877 patients in the VHVG, were identified. Propensity score matching yielded 2002 patients in each hospital volume group, with an improved balance of confounding variables between the three groups. The bleeding rates in the LMVG, HVG, and VHVG were 4.3%, 3.7%, and 4.9%, respectively, and no significant difference was noted between the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: The bleeding rate after ESD for EGC did not differ between hospitals in Japan. The finding indicated that ESD for EGC is equally feasible across Japanese hospitals of different volumes regarding bleeding after ESD.

Antithrombotics increase bleeding after endoscopic submucosal dissection for gastric cancer: Nationwide propensity score analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Post-operative bleeding is the most common adverse event in endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for early gastric cancer (EGC). Patients taking antithrombotic agents has increased. We evaluated the influence of antithrombotic agents on delayed bleeding in ESD for EGC. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis of nationwide, multicenter, retrospective cohort study in Japan. Altogether, 11,452 patients who underwent ESD for EGC in 33 institutions between November 2013 and October 2016 were enrolled. The primary outcome was the incidence of delayed bleeding in patients with or without antithrombotic agents. The secondary outcome was the incidence of delayed bleeding in those who took each antithrombotic agent and the cessation status of its use compared with each matched pair of patients. We used propensity matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analyses. RESULTS: There were 1353 matched pairs of patients. The incidence of delayed bleeding was 2.8% and 10.7% in those without and with antithrombotic agents, respectively (odds ratio [OR] 4.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.88-5.99; P < 0.001). The IPTW analysis showed similar results (OR 4.21, 95% CI 3.48-5.08; P < 0.001). Antiplatelets, anticoagulants, and their combination increased such incidence. Heparin bridging therapy had high OR (8.80), and the continuation (OR 3.46) and cessation (OR 2.95) of antithrombotic agent use had similar risk. CONCLUSIONS: Antithrombotic agents increased the incidence of delayed bleeding in patients who underwent ESD for EGC. Continuing antithrombotics may be more appropriate than heparin bridging therapy.

Prediction model of bleeding after endoscopic submucosal dissection for early gastric cancer: BEST-J score.

OBJECTIVE: Bleeding after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for early gastric cancer (EGC) is a frequent adverse event after ESD. We aimed to develop and externally validate a clinically useful prediction model (BEST-J score: Bleeding after ESD Trend from Japan) for bleeding after ESD for EGC. DESIGN: This retrospective study enrolled patients who underwent ESD for EGC. Patients in the derivation cohort (n=8291) were recruited from 25 institutions, and patients in the external validation cohort (n=2029) were recruited from eight institutions in other areas. In the derivation cohort, weighted points were assigned to predictors of bleeding determined in the multivariate logistic regression analysis and a prediction model was established. External validation of the model was conducted to analyse discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: A prediction model comprised 10 variables (warfarin, direct oral anticoagulant, chronic kidney disease with haemodialysis, P2Y12 receptor antagonist, aspirin, cilostazol, tumour size >30 mm, lower-third in tumour location, presence of multiple tumours and interruption of each kind of antithrombotic agents). The rates of bleeding after ESD at low-risk (0 to 1 points), intermediate-risk (2 points), high-risk (3 to 4 points) and very high-risk (≥5 points) were 2.8%, 6.1%, 11.4% and 29.7%, respectively. In the external validation cohort, the model showed moderately good discrimination, with a c-statistic of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.76), and good calibration (calibration-in-the-large, 0.05; calibration slope, 1.01). CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide multicentre study, we derived and externally validated a prediction model for bleeding after ESD. This model may be a good clinical decision-making support tool for ESD in patients with EGC.

Time Trend of the Radiation Exposure Dose in Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Over an 8-Year Period: A Single-Center Retrospective Study.

INTRODUCTION: The global needs for a reduction in radiation exposure (RE) are increasing. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is a significant fluoroscopic procedure in the gastrointestinal field. However, the actual RE in ERCP and its annual trend are still unclear. Therefore, we examined the yearly trend of RE in ERCP. METHODS: This retrospective, single-center cohort study included consecutive cases of ERCP from September 2012 to June 2019. We measured the air kerma (AK, mGy), dose area product (DAP, Gycm2), and fluoroscopy time (FT, min). We also evaluated the annual trend of the RE before and after the fluoroscopy device update. RESULTS: In total, 2,174 patients receiving ERCP were enrolled. Among these, the mean age was 74.3 years, and 913 patients were women (42.0%). The median/third quartile values of AK (mGy), DAP (Gycm2), and FT (min) were 109/234 mGy, 13.3/25.8 Gycm2, and 18.2/27.7 minutes. The annual AK, DAP, and FT from 2012 to 2019 were 138, 207, 173, 177, 106, 71.0, 45.0, and 33.3 mGy; 23, 21.4, 19, 18.3, 11.9, 9.0, 6.8, and 6.4 Gycm2; and 12.5, 12.1, 9.7, 9.8, 8.2, 10.8, 9.4, and 10.3 minutes, respectively. The corresponding values before and after the update in July 2016 were 177 and 52 mGy (P < 0.0001), 19.2 and 7.6 Gycm2 (P < 0.0001), and 10.2, and 9.9 minutes (P = 0.05), respectively. DISCUSSION: The RE from ERCP tended to decrease every year, especially after fluoroscopy device updates.

Prophylactic clipping not effective in preventing post-polypectomy bleeding for < 20-mm colon polyps: A multicenter, open-label, randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Prophylactic clipping (PC) after polypectomy has the potential to prevent post-polypectomy bleeding (PPB). We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of PC in preventing PPB for < 20-mm polyps. METHODS: This multicenter, open-label, randomized controlled trial conducted from December 2013 to June 2017 at 10 institutions randomly assigned 1080 patients with < 20-mm colon polyps to the non-PC and PC groups. Allocation factors were institution, antiplatelet drug use, and polyp number. The primary endpoint was differences in PPB rates between the groups. The severity of PPB and post-procedural abdominal symptoms were also investigated. These endpoints in intention-to-treat and per-protocol (PP) analyses were evaluated. RESULTS: We investigated 1039 patients with 2960 lesions. There was no significant difference between the groups in characteristics including age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, antiplatelet drug use, and lesion characteristics such as type and size. Excluding the clip used in the non-PC group, intraoperative bleeding, and deviation of protocol, 903 patients were investigated in PP analysis. There was no significant difference in the PPB rate between the non-PC and PC groups (2.7% vs 2.3%, P = 0.6973 [intention-to-treat analysis]; 3.0 vs 2.4%, P = 0.7353 [PP analysis]). Severe PPB (≥ grade 3) was similar between the groups. Total procedure time was significantly shorter in the non-PC group than in the PC group (31 vs 36 min, P = 0.0002). Post-procedural abdominal fullness was less common in the non-PC group than in the PC group (20.8% vs 25.6%, P = 0.0833). CONCLUSION: Prophylactic clipping is not effective in preventing PBB for < 20-mm colon polyps (UMIN000012163).

Timing of bleeding and thromboembolism associated with endoscopic submucosal dissection for gastric cancer in Japan.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: This study aimed to reveal the timing of bleeding and thromboembolism associated with endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for early gastric cancer (EGC). METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed  10,320 patients who underwent ESD for EGC during November 2013-October 2016. We evaluated overall bleeding rates and their inter-group differences. Factors associated with early/late (cut-off 5 days) bleeding and thromboembolism frequency and its association with the intake of antithrombotic agents were investigated. RESULTS: Overall, the post-ESD bleeding rate was 4.7% (489/10 320); the median time to post-ESD bleeding was 4 days. The post-ESD bleeding rates were 3.2%, 8.7%, 15.5%, and 29.9% in those not taking antithrombotic agents, those taking antiplatelet agents, those taking anticoagulants (ACs), and those taking antiplatelet agents and ACs. Warfarin (odds ratio [OR], 9.16), direct oral ACs (OR, 4.16), chronic kidney disease with hemodialysis (OR, 2.93), thienopyridine (OR, 2.25), aspirin (OR, 1.66), tumor size >30 mm (OR, 1.86), multiple tumors' resection (OR, 1.54), and tumor in the lower third of the stomach (OR, 1.40) were independent risk factors for early bleeding. The independent risk factors for late bleeding were direct oral ACs (OR, 7.42), chronic kidney disease with hemodialysis (OR, 4.99), warfarin (OR, 3.90), thienopyridine (OR, 3.09), liver cirrhosis (OR, 2.43), cilostazol (OR, 1.93), aspirin (OR, 1.92), ischemic heart disease (OR, 1.77), and male sex (OR, 1.65). There were three (0.03%) thromboembolic events (cerebral infarction = 2, transient ischemic attack = 1). CONCLUSION: We revealed the timing of bleeding and risk factors for early/late bleeding and showed the thromboembolism frequency associated with ESD for EGC.

Rebleeding in patients with delayed bleeding after endoscopic submucosal dissection for early gastric cancer.

OBJECTIVES: Delayed bleeding is a major adverse event in endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for early gastric cancer (EGC). Some patients may experience rebleeding after successful hemostasis for delayed bleeding, yet the details of rebleeding remain unclear. We aimed to clarify the frequency and risk factors of rebleeding. METHODS: Among 11,452 patients who underwent ESD for EGC at 33 institutions in Japan between 2013 and 2016, we analyzed 489 patients showing delayed bleeding. The rate of rebleeding was investigated. Subsequently, 15 candidate variables were evaluated for their influence on the risk of rebleeding via logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Rebleeding occurred in 11.2% (55/489) of the enrolled patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that warfarin [odds ratio (OR), 2.71; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26-5.84] and a resection size >40 mm (OR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.08-3.67) were independent risk factors for rebleeding. In the analysis of the management of warfarin after index bleeding, only warfarin discontinuation (OR, 3.66; 95% CI, 1.37-9.78) was significantly associated with rebleeding in comparison with no use of warfarin. However, many rebleeding events (75.0%) occurred following the resumption of warfarin. The rebleeding rate during discontinuation status and that in taking warfarin (continuation or resumption) were 6.1% and 20.0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Rebleeding was not a rare event in patients experiencing delayed bleeding after ESD for EGC. In addition to having a resection size >40 mm, warfarin usage placed patients at high risk for rebleeding, especially at the timing of its resumption following discontinuation as well as its continuation.