[Spatial analysis of neonatal mortality in Paraíba Valley, Southeastern Brazil, 1999 to 2001]. / Análise espacial da mortalidade neonatal no Vale do Paraíba, 1999 a 2001.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the spatial distribution of neonatal mortality. METHODS: An ecological and exploratory study using a spatial distribution of mortality data approach was carried out in the Paraiba Valley, Southeastern Brazil, from 1999-2001. Spatial analysis was conducted in a georeference database for 35 cities in the region and routines of spatial statistics. Mortality data were obtained from the State of São Paulo Health Department. The following variables were analyzed in this study: early, late and total neonatal mortality rates; and Human Development Index (HDI) values per city in 2000. Spatial dependency was measured using global Moran's Coefficients and local Moran's Index. A correlation analysis between variables was also conducted. RESULTS: There were 111,574 newborns with 1,149 deaths in the early neonatal period (10.29/1,000 newborns), 285 in the late neonatal period (2.5/1,000 newborns) totalizing 1,434 neonatal deaths (12.85/1,000 newborns). Estimated global Moran's coefficients showed statistical significance (p<005) for early and total neonatal mortality. Local Moran's index values showed clusters of municipalities for early and total neonatal mortalities rates. CONCLUSIONS: Spatial analysis allowed to identifying spatial clusters for early and total neonatal mortality rates in the central area of the Paraiba Valley.

[Effects of air pollution on children's health in a city in Southeastern Brazil]. / Efeitos da poluição atmosférica na saúde infantil em São José dos Campos, SP.

OBJECTIVE: Of the effects of air pollution on children's health, increased pneumonia admission rate is one of the most important. The study aimed at estimating the association between pneumonia admissions and increased air pollutants. METHODS: An ecological time-series study was carried out in the municipality of São José dos Campos, Southeastern Brazil, in the years 2000 and 2001. Daily records of pneumonia admissions, air pollutants (SO2, O3, and PM10) and weather conditions (temperature and humidity) were analyzed. The correlations between the study variables were estimated using Pearson's correlation. The associations between pneumonia and air pollutants were estimated using generalized additive Poisson regression models. The percentage increase (and their respective 95% CI) in pneumonia admission rate was estimated for the interquartile range of each air pollutant studied. RESULTS: The three pollutants analyzed presented lagged effects on pneumonia admission rate, beginning at lag 3 or 4 and lasting for no more than two days. The 8-day cumulative effect estimate showed that an increase of 24.7 mg/m3 in PM10 concentration increased pneumonia admission rate in 9.8%. CONCLUSIONS: The study corroborates that adverse health effects of air pollutants can be observed even in medium-sized cities. The magnitude of the effect was similar to that found in the city of São Paulo. Moreover, children are highly susceptible to air pollution exposure.

Childhood tuberculosis incidence in Southeast Brazil, 1996.

This study aims to describe childhood tuberculosis incidence in Southeast Brazil in 1996. It is a descriptive study based on secondary records from the Tuberculosis Division of the Sao Paulo State Health Department. The study area includes 40 cities, has some 1,800,000 inhabitants, and is located between Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the largest cities in Brazil. The study included cases up to 15 years of age. Independent variables were: sex, age, type of case, clinical presentation, radiology, AFB microscopy, HIV antibody tests, and method of discovery. The incidence rate in this age bracket was 10.4/100,000. Pulmonary manifestations were the most common, and control of contacts was the most common method of case discovery. AFB microscopy was performed in 18.6% of the cases and HIV testing was done in 14.9%. Incidence in this study was higher than for the State of Sao Paulo as a whole. Poor socioeconomic level, deterioration of public health services, treatment dropout by adults and their persistence as sputum-positive carriers, and flaws in case reporting and follow-up could explain these results.

Fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death.

OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

Estimating outcomes in newborn infants using fuzzy logic.

OBJECTIVE: To build a linguistic model using the properties of fuzzy logic to estimate the risk of death of neonates admitted to a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit. METHODS: Computational model using fuzzy logic. The input variables of the model were birth weight, gestational age, 5th-minute Apgar score and inspired fraction of oxygen in newborn infants admitted to a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Taubaté, Southeast Brazil. The output variable was the risk of death, estimated as a percentage. Three membership functions related to birth weight, gestational age and 5th-minute Apgar score were built, as well as two functions related to the inspired fraction of oxygen; the risk presented five membership functions. The model was developed using the Mandani inference by means of Matlab(r) software. The model values were compared with those provided by experts and their performance was estimated by ROC curve. RESULTS: 100 newborns were included, and eight of them died. The model estimated an average possibility of death of 49.7±29.3%, and the possibility of hospital discharge was 24±17.5%. These values are different when compared by Student's t-test (p<0.001). The correlation test revealed r=0.80 and the performance of the model was 81.9%. CONCLUSIONS: This predictive, non-invasive and low cost model showed a good accuracy and can be applied in neonatal care, given the easiness of its use.

Performance of the Visual Analogue Scale of Happiness and of the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia in the Tremembé Epidemiological Study, Brazil.

Depression is a major growing public health problem. Many population studies have found a significant relationship between depression and the presence of cognitive disorders. OBJECTIVE: To establish the correlation between the Visual Analogue Scale of Happiness and the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia in the population aged 60 years or over in the city of Tremembé, state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: An epidemiological survey involving home visits was carried out in the city of Tremembé. The sample was randomly selected by drawing 20% of the population aged 60 years or older from each of the city's census sectors. In this single-phase study, the assessment included clinical history, physical and neurological examination, cognitive evaluation, and application of both the Cornell Scale and the Analogue Scale of Happiness for psychiatric symptoms. The presence of depressive symptoms was defined as scores greater than or equal to 8 points on the Cornell Scale. RESULTS: A total of 623 subjects were evaluated and of these 251 (40.3%) had clinically significant depressive symptoms on the Cornell Scale, with a significant association with female gender (p<0.001) and with lower education (p=0.012). One hundred and thirty-six participants (21.8%) chose the unhappiness faces, with a significant association with age (p<0.001), female gender (p=0.020) and low socioeconomic status (p=0.012). Although there was a statistically significant association on the correlation test, the correlation was not high (rho=0.47). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of depressive symptoms was high in this sample and the Visual Analogue Scale of Happiness and Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia should not be used as similar alternatives for evaluating the presence of depressive symptoms, at least in populations with low educational level.

A depressão é um problema importante e crescente de saúde pública. É muito comum ser encontrada uma relação significativa entre depressão e a presença de distúrbios cognitivos nos estudos populacionais. OBJETIVO: Estabelecer a correlação entre a Escala Analógica Visual de Felicidade e a Escala Cornell de Depressão em Demência na população de 60 anos ou mais da cidade de Tremembé, estado de São Paulo, Brasil. MÉTODOS: Estudo epidemiológico no qual foram realizadas visitas domiciliares na cidade de Tremembé. A amostra foi aleatória, através do sorteio de 20% da população acima de 60 anos de cada setor censitário do município. Este estudo foi de fase única, tendo sido realizada anamnese, exames físico e neurológico, avaliação cognitiva e aplicação de escalas Cornell de Depressão em Demência e Escala Analógica de Felicidade para verificar a presença de sintomas depressivos. Foi adotado como critério da presença de sintomas depressivos, pontuação maior ou igual a 8 na escala de Cornell. RESULTADOS: Foram avaliadas 623 pessoas e destas 251 (40,3%) apresentaram sintomas depressivos significativos clinicamente na escala de Cornell, com associação significativa com gênero feminino (p<0,001) e com a baixa escolaridade (p=0,012). Cento e trinta e seis participantes (21,8%) apontaram para faces de infelicidade, com associação significativa com idade (p<0,001), com gênero feminino (p=0,020) e com baixo nível socioeconômico (p=0,012). Embora tenha havido significância estatística no teste de correlação, a correlação entre as duas escalas analisadas não foi alta (rho=0,47). CONCLUSÃO: A prevalência de sintomas depressivos foi elevada nesta amostra e a Escala Analógica de Felicidade e a Escala Cornell de Depressão em Demência não devem ser utilizadas como alternativas similares para avaliar a presença de sintomas depressivos, pelo menos em populações com baixa escolaridade.

Atmospheric pollutants and hospital admissions due to pneumonia in children.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the relationship between exposure to air pollutants and hospitalizations due to pneumonia in children of Sorocaba, São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Time series ecological study, from 2007 to 2008. Daily data were obtained from the State Environmental Agency for Pollution Control for particulate matter, nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, besides air temperature and relative humidity. The data concerning pneumonia admissions were collected in the public health system of Sorocaba. Correlations between the variables of interest using Pearson cofficient were calculated. Models with lags from zero to five days after exposure to pollutants were performed to analyze the association between the exposure to environmental pollutants and hospital admissions. The analysis used the generalized linear model of Poisson regression, being significant p<0.05. RESULTS: There were 1,825 admissions for pneumonia, with a daily mean of 2.5±2.1. There was a strong correlation between pollutants and hospital admissions, except for ozone. Regarding the Poisson regression analysis with the multi-pollutant model, only nitrogen dioxide was statistically significant in the same day (relative risk - RR=1.016), as well as particulate matter with a lag of four days (RR=1.009) after exposure to pollutants. CONCLUSIONS: There was an acute effect of exposure to nitrogen dioxide and a later effect of exposure to particulate matter on children hospitalizations for pneumonia in Sorocaba.

[Association between exposure to particulate matter and hospital admissions for respiratory disease in children]. / Associação entre exposição ao material particulado e internações por doenças respiratórias em crianças.

The aim of this study was to estimate the association between exposure to particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter and hospitalization for respiratory disease. It was an ecological time series study with daily indicators of hospitalization for respiratory diseases in children up to 10 years old, living in Piracicaba, SP, Southeastern Brazil, between August 1, 2011 and July 31, 2012. A generalized additive Poisson regression model was used. The relative risks were RR = 1.008; 95%CI 1.001;1.016 for lag 1 and RR = 1.009; 95%CI 1.001;1.017 for lag 3. The increment of 10 µg/m3 in particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter implies increase in relative risk of between 7.9 and 8.6 percentage points. In conclusion, exposure to particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter was associated with hospitalization for respiratory disease in children.

Spatial distribution of low birthweight infants in Taubaté, São Paulo, Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the spatial pattern of low birth weight infants in the city of Taubaté, São Paulo, Southeast Brazil. METHODS: Ecological and exploratory study, developed with the data acquired from the Health Department of Taubaté, regarding the period from January 1(st) 2006 and December 31(st) 2010. Birth certificates were used to obtain the data from infants weighing less than 2500g. A digital basis of census tracts was applied and the Global Moran index ((IM)) was estimated. Thematic maps were built for the distribution of low birth weight, health centers and tracts, according to the priority care (Moran map). The adopted statistical significance was α=5% and TerraView software conducted the spatial analysis. RESULTS: There were 18,915 live births during the study period, with 1,817 low birth weight infants (9.6%). The low birth weight infants' prevalence during the period ranged from 9.3 to 9.8%. A total of 1,185 infants with known addresses, compatible with the digital base (65.2% of low birth weight infants), were included. The I(M) for low birth weight was 0.12, with p<0.01; regarding the health centers distribution, I(M) was -0.07, with p=0.01. The Moran map identified 11 census tracts with high priority for intervention by health managers, located in the outskirts of the city. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis identified the low birth weight distribution by census tracts and the sectors with a high priority for intervention.

Prevalence of depressive symptoms among elderly in the city of Tremembé, Brazil: preliminary findings of an epidemiological study.

Depression is a heterogeneous mental disease classified as a set of disorders, which manifest with a certain duration, frequency and intensity. The prevalence of depression in the elderly ranges from 0.5 to 16%. OBJECTIVE: To establish, in an epidemiological study, the prevalence of significant depressive symptoms in the population aged 60 years or older. METHODS: Results of a cross-sectional epidemiological study, involving home visits, being carried out in the city of Tremembé, Brazil, were reported. The sample was randomly selected by drawing 20% of the population over 60 years from each of the city's census sectors. In this single-phase study, the assessment included clinical history, physical and neurological examination, cognitive evaluation, the Cornell scale and the Patient Health Questionnaire for psychiatric symptoms. Scores greater than or equal to 8 on the Cornell scale were taken to indicate the presence of depressive symptoms. RESULTS: A total of 455 elders were assessed, and of these 169 (37.1%) had clinically significant depressive symptoms (CSDS). Depression prevalence was higher among women (p<0.001) and individuals with lower education (p=0.033). The Chi-square test for trends showed a significant relationship where lower socioeconomic status was associated with greater likelihood of depressive symptoms (p=0.005). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of depressive symptoms was high in this sample of the population-based study and was associated with female gender, low educational level and socioeconomic status. The assessment of the entire population sample must be completed.

Depressão é uma doença mental heterogênea classificada como um conjunto de transtornos, que se manifestam numa certa duração, frequência e intensidade. A prevalência de depressão em idosos varia de 0,5 a 16%. OBJETIVO: estabelecer a prevalência de sintomas depressivos significantes em estudo epidemiológico em população acima de 60 anos. MÉTODOS: Estudo epidemiológico do tipo transversal, no qual estão sendo realizadas visitas domiciliares na cidade de Tremembé, Brasil. A amostra foi aleatória, através do sorteio de 20% da população acima de 60 anos de cada setor censitário do município. Este estudo é de única fase, sendo realizada anamnese, exames físico e neurológico, avaliação cognitiva e aplicação de escalas de Cornell e questionário Patient Health Questionnaire para verificar sintomas psiquiátricos. Foi adotado como critério da presença de sintomas depressivos, pontuação maior ou igual a 8 na escala de Cornell. RESULTADOS: Foram avaliadas 455 pessoas e destas 169 (37,1%) apresentaram sintomas depressivos significativos clinicamente (SDSC). A maior prevalência foi entre as mulheres (p<0,001) e com escolaridade mais baixa (p=0,033). Quando realizado o teste de qui-quadrado de tendência, houve relação significativa, à medida que diminui o nível socioeconômico, aumenta a chance da presença de sintomas depressivos (p=0,005). CONCLUSÃO: A prevalência de sintomas depressivos foi elevada nesta amostra do estudo populacional e com associação com gênero feminino, baixo nível educacional e socioeconômico, mas há necessidade de finalizar toda amostragem.

Admissions due to pneumonia and biomass burning: a spatial approach.

OBJECTIVE: To identify spatial patterns in rates of admission for pneumonia among children and relate them to the number of fires reported in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. METHODS: We conducted an ecological and exploratory study of data from the state of Mato Grosso for 2008 and 2009 on hospital admissions of children aged 0 to 4 years due to pneumonia and on fires in the same period. Admission rates were calculated and choropleth maps were plotted for rates and for fire outbreaks, Moran's I was calculated and the kernel estimator used to identify "hotspots." Data were analyzed using TerraView 3.3.1. RESULTS: Fifteen thousand six hundred eighty-nine children were hospitalized (range zero to 2,315), and there were 161,785 fires (range 7 to 6,454). The average rate of admissions per 1,000 inhabitants was 2.89 (standard deviation [SD] = 5.18) and the number of fires per 1,000 inhabitants was 152.81 (SD = 199.91). Moran's I for the overall number of admissions was I = 0.02 (p = 0.26), the index for rate of admission was I = 0.02 (p = 0.21) and the index for the number of fires was I = 0.31 (p < 0.01). It proved possible to identify four municipalities with elevated rates of admissions for pneumonia. It was also possible to identify two regions with high admission densities. A clustering of fires was evident along what is known as the "arc of deforestation." CONCLUSIONS: This study identified municipalities in the state of Mato Grosso that require interventions to reduce rates of admission due to pneumonia and the number fires.

Risk factors for neonatal death in neonatal intensive care unit according to survival analysis. / Fatores de risco para óbito em unidade de terapia intensiva neonatal, utilizando a técnica de análise de sobrevida.

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors associated with death of infants admitted to neonatal intensive care unit of Taubaté University Hospital. METHODS: It is a longitudinal study with information obtained from medical records of newborns admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of Taubaté University Hospital. Type of outcome, discharge or death, was dependent variable. The independent variables were maternal and gestational variables: maternal age, hypertension, diabetes, corticosteroid therapy and delivery; variables of the newborn: birth weight, gestation length, Apgar score in the first and fifth minutes of life, multiple birth, congenital malformations and sex; hospitalar variables: report of mechanical ventilation, positive pressure ventilation, reports of prolonged parenteral nutrition, sepsis, intubation, cardiac massage, phototherapy, hyaline membrane disease, oxygen and fraction of inspired oxygen. It was built a model in three hierarchical levels for the survival analysis by the Cox model; it was used the software Stata v9 and the final model contained variables with p <0.05. The risks were estimated by measure effect known as hazard ratio (HR) with confidence intervals of 95%. The newborns transferred during hospitalization to another service were excluded from the study. RESULTS: There were admitted during the study period 495 newborns, with 129 deaths (26.1%). In the final model, only the variables of steroid use (HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.02-2.70), malformation (HR 1.93, CI 95% 1,05-2,88), very low birth weight (HR 4.28, 95% CI 2,79-6,57) and Apgar scores lower than seven of no1 min (HR 1.87, 95% CI 1,19-2,93) and 5 min (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1,05-2,88) and the variables phototherapy (HR 0.34; 95% CI 0,22-0,53) and endotracheal intubation (HR 2.28, 95% CI 1 .41-3, 70). CONCLUSION: Factors related primarily to the newborn and the hospitalar internment (except therapy with corticosteroids) were identified as associated to mortality highlighting a possible protective factor of phototherapy and the risk of infants with very low birth weight.

[Spatial analysis of hospitalization for heart diseases in Vale do Paraíba].

BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart diseases (IHD) are important causes of death in the Vale do Paraíba paulista. OBJECTIVE: To identify patterns of spatial distribution of hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and IHD in the Vale do Paraíba paulista. METHODS: This was an ecological study using exploratory spatial analysis of hospitalization data for acute myocardial infarction and ischemic heart disease in the Vale do Paraíba between 2004 and 2005. The statistical analysis used spatial georeferenced databases of 35 municipalities and spatial statistics routines. The admission data were obtained from the Portal Datasus of the Ministry of Health. The variables were the number of admissions for males and females aged over 30 years. To evaluate the spatial dependence we used the autocorrelation coefficients of Global Moran and Local Moran's index. We also analyzed the correlations between variables, using the TerraView program. The level of significance was 5%. RESULTS: Among 6,287 admissions, the rates were 161.66/100 thousand. Of the total of 35 municipalities, 31.4% had rates above average. The coefficient of Moran (global) showed a statistical significance. Local indexes showed clusters, indicating a cluster of 9 municipalities in which there was spatial dependence with their own dynamics. CONCLUSION: In the mid Vale do Paraíba paulista, the spatial analysis identified spatial clusters of hospitalizations due to acute myocardial infarction and ischemic heart disease, allowing intervention to reduce rates. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2007;88(6):624-628).

Are environmental pollutants risk factors for low birth weight?

The aim of this study was to assess the association between prenatal exposure to air pollutants and low birth weight in a medium-sized city. An ecological study was performed, using live birth data from São José dos Campos, São Paulo State, Brazil. The environmental data were obtained from the São Paul State Environmental Agency. The study included full-term newborns whose mothers were 20 to 34 years of age and had at least a complete high school education, seven or more prenatal visits, singleton pregnancy, and vaginal delivery, in order to minimize potential confounding from these variables. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of each pollutant. Low birth weight was defined as less than 2,500 g. The sample included a total of 2,529 data from 2001 that met the inclusion criteria (25.6% of the total). We identified 99 newborns (3.95% of the sample) with low birth weight, and the pollutants sulfur dioxide and ozone were associated with low birth weight. The final model was A(x) = -1.79 + 1.30 (SO2) + 1.26 (O3). Thus, sulfur dioxide and ozone were identified as risk factors for low birth weight in a medium-sized city in Southeast Brazil.

Estimating outcomes in newborn infants using fuzzy logic / Estimando el desenlace en el recién nacido usando lógica fuzzy / Estimando o desfecho no recém-nascido usando lógica fuzzy

To build a linguistic model using the properties of fuzzy logic to estimate the risk of death of neonates admitted to a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit. METHODS: Computational model using fuzzy logic. The input variables of the model were birth weight, gestational age, 5th-minute Apgar score and inspired fraction of oxygen in newborn infants admitted to a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Taubaté, Southeast Brazil. The output variable was the risk of death, estimated as a percentage. Three membership functions related to birth weight, gestational age and 5th-minute Apgar score were built, as well as two functions related to the inspired fraction of oxygen; the risk presented five membership functions. The model was developed using the Mandani inference by means of Matlab(r) software. The model values were compared with those provided by experts and their performance was estimated by ROC curve. RESULTS: 100 newborns were included, and eight of them died. The model estimated an average possibility of death of 49.7±29.3%, and the possibility of hospital discharge was 24±17.5%. These values are different when compared by Student's t-test (p<0.001). The correlation test revealed r=0.80 and the performance of the model was 81.9%. CONCLUSIONS: This predictive, non-invasive and low cost model showed a good accuracy and can be applied in neonatal care, given the easiness of its use...

Construir un modelo lingüístico utilizándose de las propiedades de la lógica fuzzy para estimar el riesgo de óbito de recién nacidos internados en Unidad de Terapia Intensiva Neonatal (UTIN). MÉTODOS: Modelo computacional que se utiliza de la lógica fuzzy. Las variables de entrada del modelo fueron peso al nacer, edad gestacional, Apgar de 5º minuto y fracción inspirada de oxígeno de recién nacidos internados en una UTIN privada de Taubaté, São Paulo (Brasil). La variable de salida fue riesgo de óbito, estimado en porcentaje. Se construyeron tres funciones de pertinencia para peso al nacer, edad gestacional y Apgar de 5º minuto y dos para fracción inspirada de oxígeno; el riesgo presentó cinco funciones de pertinencia. En el modelo se utilizó el método de inferencia de Mandani por el programa Matlab(r). Los valores del modelo fueron comparados con los suministrados por especialistas y su desempeño fue estimado por la curva ROC. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron a 100 recién nacidos y ocurrieron ocho óbitos. Para el óbito, la posibilidad mediana fue de 49,7±29,3% y, para alta hospitalaria, de 24±17,5%. Esos valores son distintos cuando comparados por la prueba t de Student (p<0,001). La correlación fue r=0,80 y el desempeño del modelo fue de 81,9%. CONCLUSIONES: Ese modelo predictivo, no invasivo y de bajo costo financiero mostró buena precisión y se puede usarlo en unidades neonatales, dada su facilidad de aplicación...

Construir um modelo linguístico utilizando-se as propriedades da lógica fuzzy para estimar o risco de óbito de recém-nascidos internados em Unidade de Terapia Intensiva Neonatal (UTIN). MÉTODOS: Modelo computacional utilizando a lógica fuzzy. As variáveis de entrada do modelo foram peso ao nascer, idade gestacional, Apgar de 5º minuto e fração inspirada de oxigênio de recém-nascidos internados em uma UTIN privada de Taubaté, SP. A variável de saída foi risco de óbito, estimado em percentagem. Construíram-se três funções de pertinência para peso ao nascer, idade gestacional e Apgar de 5º minuto e duas para fração inspirada de oxigênio; o risco apresentou cinco funções de pertinência. No modelo, utilizou-se o método de inferência de Mandani pelo progama Matlab(r). Os valores do modelo foram comparados com os fornecidos por especialistas e seu desempenho foi estimado pela curva ROC. RESULTADOS: Incluíram-se 100 recém-nascidos e ocorreram oito óbitos. Para o óbito, a possibilidade média foi de 49,7±29,3% e, para a alta hospitalar, de 24±17,5%. Esses valores são diferentes quando comparados pelo teste t de Student (p<0,001). A correlação foi r=0,80 e o desempenho do modelo foi de 81,9%. CONCLUSÕES: Esse modelo preditivo, não invasivo e de baixo custo financeiro mostrou boa acurácia e pode ser usado em unidades neonatais, dada a facilidade de sua aplicação...

Establishing the risk of neonatal mortality using a fuzzy predictive model.

The objective of this study was to develop a fuzzy model to estimate the possibility of neonatal mortality. A computing model was built, based on the fuzziness of the following variables: newborn birth weight, gestational age at delivery, Apgar score, and previous report of stillbirth. The inference used was Mamdani's method and the output was the risk of neonatal death given as a percentage. 24 rules were created according to the inputs. The validation model used a real data file with records from a Brazilian city. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the accuracy of the model, while average risks were compared using the Student t test. MATLAB 6.5 software was used to build the model. The average risks were smaller in survivor newborn (p < 0.001). The accuracy of the model was 0.90. The higher accuracy occurred with risk below 25%, corresponding to 0.70 in respect to sensitivity, 0.98 specificity, 0.99 negative predictive value and 0.22 positive predictive value. The model showed a good accuracy, as well as a good negative predictive value and could be used in general hospitals.

Spatial distribution of C-sections within the state of São Paulo / Distribuição espacial das cesarianas no Estado de São Paulo

Objective: to identify spacial patterns for cesarean deliveries per microregion in the state of São Paulo. Methods: this is an ecological and exploratory study with data on live births occurred between 2003 and 2007 in 63 microregions in the state of São Paulo. Variables analyzed included cesarean delivery rates, teenage mothers, mothers with high levels of education and who had at least seven prenatal consultations. Moran's index (I), a measure of spatial autocorrelation of rates related to the variables described above and which identifies the presence of spatial clusters, was calculated. The distributions of the variables' rates in this study were visualized using thematic maps. The Moran map was used to identify microregions with high priority need for attention. Pearson correlation coefficients among the variables were also obtained. Results: there were 3,045,293 births, being 1,636,009 (53.7 %) cesarean deliveries. It was possible to identify spatial clusters of C-sections (I = 0.58 and p < 0.01) in the microregions located on the north and northwest of the state of São Paulo, as well as in Guaratinguetá; the values found for Moran index were, I = 0.32, I = 0.30 and I = 0.24, for the rates of teenage mothers, schooling and number of consultations, respectively, being all significant results (p <0.01). Micro-regions with high-priority need for attention were identified. Cesarean rates were significantly correlated with high rates of maternal education and number of prenatal consultations. Conclusion: the identification of these microregion clusters with high rates of cesarean delivery allows health managers to implement policies in order to minimize these rates. .

Objetivo: identificar padrões espaciais para partos cesarianos por microrregião do Estado de São Paulo. Métodos: estudo ecológico e exploratório com dados de nascidos vivos entre 2003 e 2007 de 63 microrregiões do Estado de São Paulo. As variáveis analisadas neste estudo foram, além de taxas de parto cesariano, taxas de mães adolescentes, de mães com alta escolaridade e de mães que realizaram pelo menos 7 consultas no pré-natal. Foram calculados os índices de Moran (I), que estimam autocorrelação espacial das taxas das variáveis acima descritas e identificam a presença de aglomerados espaciais. Essas taxas foram visualizadas pelos mapas temáticos; microrregiões com alta prioridade de atenção foram identificadas pelo mapa de Moran. Foram calculados os coeficientes de correlação de Pearson entre as variáveis. Resultados: houve 3.045.293 partos, sendo 1.636.009 (53,72%) partos cesarianos. Foi possível identificar aglomerados espaciais de cesarianas (I = 0,58 e p < 0,01) nas microrregiões ao norte e noroeste do Estado, além de Guaratinguetá. Os valores dos índices de Moran foram, para as taxas de mães adolescentes, I = 0,32; para as taxas de alta escolaridade, I = 0,30; e para as taxas do número de consultas, I = 0,24, todos significativos (p<0,01). Foram identificadas microrregiões com alta prioridade de intervenção. As taxas de cesarianas estiveram correlacionadas significativamente com as taxas de alta escolaridade materna e com número de consultas. Conclusão: a identificação desses aglomerados de microrregiões com altas taxas de cesarianas permite aos gestores de saúde implantar políticas para minimizar tais taxas. .

Performance of the Visual Analogue Scale of Happiness and of the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia in the Tremembé Epidemiological Study, Brazil / Desempenho na Escala Analógica Visual de Felicidade e na Escala Cornell de Depressão em Demência no estudo epidemiológico de Tremembé, Brasil

Depression is a major growing public health problem. Many population studies have found a significant relationship between depression and the presence of cognitive disorders. Objective: To establish the correlation between the Visual Analogue Scale of Happiness and the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia in the population aged 60 years or over in the city of Tremembé, state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: An epidemiological survey involving home visits was carried out in the city of Tremembé. The sample was randomly selected by drawing 20% of the population aged 60 years or older from each of the city?s census sectors. In this single-phase study, the assessment included clinical history, physical and neurological examination, cognitive evaluation, and application of both the Cornell Scale and the Analogue Scale of Happiness for psychiatric symptoms. The presence of depressive symptoms was defined as scores greater than or equal to 8 points on the Cornell Scale. Results: A total of 623 subjects were evaluated and of these 251 (40.3%) had clinically significant depressive symptoms on the Cornell Scale, with a significant association with female gender (p<0.001) and with lower education (p=0.012). One hundred and thirty-six participants (21.8%) chose the unhappiness faces, with a significant association with age (p<0.001), female gender (p=0.020) and low socioeconomic status (p=0.012). Although there was a statistically significant association on the correlation test, the correlation was not high (rho=0.47). Conclusion: The prevalence of depressive symptoms was high in this sample and the Visual Analogue Scale of Happiness and Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia should not be used as similar alternatives for evaluating the presence of depressive symptoms, at least in populations with low educational level.

A depressão é um problema importante e crescente de saúde pública. É muito comum ser encontrada uma relação significativa entre depressão e a presença de distúrbios cognitivos nos estudos populacionais. Objetivo: Estabelecer a correlação entre a Escala Analógica Visual de Felicidade e a Escala Cornell de Depressão em Demência na população de 60 anos ou mais da cidade de Tremembé, estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudo epidemiológico no qual foram realizadas visitas domiciliares na cidade de Tremembé. A amostra foi aleatória, através do sorteio de 20% da população acima de 60 anos de cada setor censitário do município. Este estudo foi de fase única, tendo sido realizada anamnese, exames físico eneurológico, avaliação cognitiva e aplicação de escalas Cornell de Depressão em Demência e Escala Analógica de Felicidade para verificar a presença de sintomas depressivos. Foi adotado como critério da presença de sintomas depressivos, pontuação maior ou igual a 8 na escala de Cornell. Resultados: Foram avaliadas 623 pessoas e destas 251 (40,3%) apresentaram sintomas depressivos significativos clinicamente na escala de Cornell, com associação significativa com gênero feminino (p<0,001) e com a baixa escolaridade (p=0,012). Cento e trinta e seis participantes (21,8%) apontaram para faces de infelicidade, com associação significativa com idade (p<0,001), com gênero feminino (p=0,020) e com baixo nível socioeconômico (p=0,012). Embora tenha havido significância estatística no teste de correlação, a correlação entre as duas escalas analisadas não foi alta (rho=0,47). Conclusão: A prevalência de sintomas depressivos foi elevada nesta amostra e a Escala Analógica de Felicidade e a Escala Cornell de Depressão em Demência não devem ser utilizadas como alternativas similares para avaliar a presença de sintomas depressivos, pelo menos em populações com baixa escolaridade.

Atmospheric pollutants and hospital admissions due to pneumonia in children / Contaminantes atmosfericos e internaciones por neumonia en ninos / Poluentes atmosfericos e internacoes por pneumonia em criancas

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the relationship between exposure to air pollutants and hospitalizations due to pneumonia in children of Sorocaba, São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Time series ecological study, from 2007 to 2008. Daily data were obtained from the State Environmental Agency for Pollution Control for particulate matter, nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, besides air temperature and relative humidity. The data concerning pneumonia admissions were collected in the public health system of Sorocaba. Correlations between the variables of interest using Pearson cofficient were calculated. Models with lags from zero to five days after exposure to pollutants were performed to analyze the association between the exposure to environmental pollutants and hospital admissions. The analysis used the generalized linear model of Poisson regression, being significant p<0.05. RESULTS: There were 1,825 admissions for pneumonia, with a daily mean of 2.5±2.1. There was a strong correlation between pollutants and hospital admissions, except for ozone. Regarding the Poisson regression analysis with the multi-pollutant model, only nitrogen dioxide was statistically significant in the same day (relative risk - RR=1.016), as well as particulate matter with a lag of four days (RR=1.009) after exposure to pollutants. CONCLUSIONS: There was an acute effect of exposure to nitrogen dioxide and a later effect of exposure to particulate matter on children hospitalizations for pneumonia in Sorocaba. .

OBJETIVO: Analizar la relación entre la exposición a los contaminantes atmosféricos e internaciones por neumonía en la infancia, en Sorocaba, São Paulo (Brasil). MÉTODOS: Estudio ecológico en series temporales, en el periodo de 2007 a 2008. Los datos diarios de las internaciones por neumonía fueron recogidos en la red pública del municipio. Se obtuvieron además los datos de los siguientes contaminantes, según la Compañía de Tecnología de Saneamiento Ambiental: material particulado, óxido nítrico, dióxido de nitrógeno y ozono, además de la temperatura y humedad relativa del aire. Las correlaciones entre las variables de interés fueron evaluadas por el coeficiente de Pearson. Para analizar la asociación entre la exposición a los contaminantes ambientales y las internaciones hospitalarias, se aplicaron modelos con desfases de cero a cinco días después de la exposición a los contaminantes. El análisis utilizó el modelo lineal generalizado de la regresión de Poisson y el nivel de significancia adoptado fue p<0,05. RESULTADOS: Hubo 1.825 internaciones por neumonía, con un promedio diario de 2,5±2,1. Se observaron fuertes correlaciones entre los contaminantes y las internaciones, excepto por el ozono. Respecto a la regresión de Poisson, en el análisis con el modelo multicontaminante, solamente el dióxido de nitrógeno presentó significancia estadística en el mismo día (riesgo relativo - RR=1,016), así como el material particulado en el desfase de cuatro días (RR=1,009) después de la exposición a los contaminantes. CONCLUSIONES: Se verificó efecto agudo de la exposición al dióxido de nitrógeno y efecto más tardío a la exposición al material particulado sobre las internaciones por neumonía ...

OBJETIVO: Analisar a relação entre exposição aos poluentes atmosféricos e internações por pneumonia na infância, em Sorocaba, São Paulo. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico de séries temporais, no período de 2007 a 2008. Os dados diários das internações por pneumonia foram coletados na rede pública do município. Obtiveram-se também os dados dos seguintes poluentes, segundo a Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental: material particulado, óxido nítrico, dióxido de nitrogênio e ozônio, além da temperatura e da umidade relativa do ar. As correlações entre as variáveis de interesse foram avaliadas pelo coeficiente de Pearson. Para analisar a associação entre a exposição aos poluentes ambientais e as internações hospitalares, aplicaram-se modelos com defasagens de zero a cinco dias após a exposição aos poluentes. A análise utilizou o modelo linear generalizado da regressão de Poisson e o nível de significância adotado foi p<0,05. RESULTADOS: Ocorreram 1.825 internações por pneumonia, com a média diária de 2,5±2,1. Observaram-se correlações fortes entre os poluentes e as internações, com exceção do ozônio. Quanto à regressão de Poisson, na análise com o modelo multipoluente, apenas o dióxido de nitrogênio apresentou significância estatística no mesmo dia (risco relativo - RR=1,016), assim como o material particulado na defasagem de quatro dias (RR=1,009) após a exposição aos poluentes. CONCLUSÕES: Verificou-se efeito agudo da exposição ao dióxido de nitrogênio e efeito mais tardio da exposição ao material particulado sobre as internações por pneumonia em Sorocaba. .

Spatial distribution of low birthweight infants in Taubate, Sao Paulo, Brazil / Distribucion espacial de los recien nacidos con bajo peso en Taubate, Sao Paulo / Distribuicao espacial dos recem-nascidos com baixo peso em Taubate, Sao Paulo

OBJECTIVE: To identify the spatial pattern of low birth weight infants in the city of Taubaté, São Paulo, Southeast Brazil. METHODS: Ecological and exploratory study, developed with the data acquired from the Health Department of Taubaté, regarding the period from January 1st 2006 and December 31st 2010. Birth certificates were used to obtain the data from infants weighing less than 2500g. A digital basis of census tracts was applied and the Global Moran index (IM) was estimated. Thematic maps were built for the distribution of low birth weight, health centers and tracts, according to the priority care (Moran map). The adopted statistical significance was α=5% and TerraView software conducted the spatial analysis. RESULTS: There were 18,915 live births during the study period, with 1,817 low birth weight infants (9.6%). The low birth weight infants' prevalence during the period ranged from 9.3 to 9.8%. A total of 1,185 infants with known addresses, compatible with the digital base (65.2% of low birth weight infants), were included. The IM for low birth weight was 0.12, with p<0.01; regarding the health centers distribution, IM was -0.07, with p=0.01. The Moran map identified 11 census tracts with high priority for intervention by health managers, located in the outskirts of the city. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis identified the low birth weight distribution by census tracts and the sectors with a high priority for intervention. .

OBJETIVO: Identificar el estándar de distribución espacial de recién nacidos (RN) con bajo peso en el municipio de Taubaté, São Paulo. MÉTODOS: Estudio epidemiológico de tipo ecológico y exploratorio, con datos de la Secretaría Municipal de Salud de Taubaté, relativos al periodo de 1 de enero de 2006 a 31 de diciembre de 2010. Se utilizó la declaración de nacidos vivos, para obtención de los datos de nacimientos con peso inferior a 2.500g, y una base digital de sectores censitarios para el análisis. Se calculó el Índice de Moran Global (IM), construyéndose mapas temáticos para la distribución de los RN con bajo peso, de los puestos de salud y de los sectores, conforme a la prioridad de atención (Mapa de Moran). La significancia estadística adoptada fue α=5%. Se efectuó el análisis espacial por el programa TerraView. RESULTADOS: Se verificaron 18.915 nacidos vivos en el periodo de estudio y 1.817 presentaban bajo peso (9,6%). La prevalencia de bajo peso al nacer en el periodo varió de 9,3 a 9,8%. Se incluyeron 1.185 RN que tenían direcciones conocidas y compatibles con la base digital (65,2% del total con bajo peso). El IM para neonatos con bajo peso fue de 0,12, con p<0,01; para la distribución de los puestos de salud, se obtuvo IM=-0,07, con p<0,01. El Mapa de Moran identificó 11 sectores censitarios que deben ser objeto de intervención por el gestor de salud, que se ubican en las afueras de la ciudad. CONCLUSIONES: El análisis espacial identificó la distribución de los RN con bajo peso por sectores censitarios y los sectores con alta prioridad de intervención. .

OBJETIVO: Identificar o padrão de distribuição espacial de recém-nascidos (RN) com baixo peso no município de Taubaté, São Paulo. MÉTODOS: Estudo epidemiológico do tipo ecológico e exploratório, com dados da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Taubaté, relativos ao período de 1º de janeiro de 2006 a 31 de dezembro de 2010. Utilizou-se a declaração de nascidos vivos para obter os dados de nascimentos com peso inferior a 2500g e uma base digital de setores censitários para a análise. Calculou-se o Índice de Moran Global (IM), construindo-se mapas temáticos para a distribuição dos RN com baixo peso, dos postos de saúde e dos setores, de acordo com a prioridade de atendimento (Mapa de Moran). A significância estatística adotada foi α=5%. Efetuou-se a análise espacial pelo programa TerraView. RESULTADOS: Verificaram-se 18.915 nascidos vivos no período de estudo e 1.817 apresentavam baixo peso (9,6%). A prevalência de baixo peso ao nascer no período variou de 9,3 a 9,8%. Incluíram-se 1.185 RN que tinham endereços conhecidos e compatíveis com a base digital (65,2% do total com baixo peso). O IM para neonatos com baixo peso foi de 0,12, com p<0,01; para a distribuição dos postos de saúde, obteve-se IM =-0,07, com p=0,01. O Mapa de Moran identificou 11 setores censitários que devem ser objeto de intervenção pelo gestor de saúde, os quais se situam na periferia da cidade. CONCLUSÕES: A análise espacial identificou a distribuição dos RN com baixo peso por setores censitários e os setores com alta prioridade de intervenção. .