Temporal Risk of Nonfatal Cardiovascular Events After Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation: A Population-based Study.

Rationale: Cardiovascular events after chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations are recognized. Studies to date have been post hoc analyses of trials, did not differentiate exacerbation severity, included death in the cardiovascular outcome, or had insufficient power to explore individual outcomes temporally.Objectives: We explore temporal relationships between moderate and severe exacerbations and incident, nonfatal hospitalized cardiovascular events in a primary care-derived COPD cohort.Methods: We included people with COPD in England from 2014 to 2020, from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care database. The index date was the date of first COPD exacerbation or, for those without exacerbations, date upon eligibility. We determined composite and individual cardiovascular events (acute coronary syndrome, arrhythmia, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and pulmonary hypertension) from linked hospital data. Adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate average and time-stratified adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs).Measurements and Main Results: Among 213,466 patients, 146,448 (68.6%) had any exacerbation; 119,124 (55.8%) had moderate exacerbations, and 27,324 (12.8%) had severe exacerbations. A total of 40,773 cardiovascular events were recorded. There was an immediate period of cardiovascular relative rate after any exacerbation (1-14 d; aHR, 3.19 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.71-3.76]), followed by progressively declining yet maintained effects, elevated after one year (aHR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.78-1.91]). Hazard ratios were highest 1-14 days after severe exacerbations (aHR, 14.5 [95% CI, 12.2-17.3]) but highest 14-30 days after moderate exacerbations (aHR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.63-2.31]). Cardiovascular outcomes with the greatest two-week effects after a severe exacerbation were arrhythmia (aHR, 12.7 [95% CI, 10.3-15.7]) and heart failure (aHR, 8.31 [95% CI, 6.79-10.2]).Conclusions: Cardiovascular events after moderate COPD exacerbations occur slightly later than after severe exacerbations; heightened relative rates remain beyond one year irrespective of severity. The period immediately after an exacerbation presents a critical opportunity for clinical intervention and treatment optimization to prevent future cardiovascular events.

Factors associated with non-fatal heart failure and atrial fibrillation or flutter within the first 30 days post COPD exacerbation: a nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: An immediate, temporal risk of heart failure and arrhythmias after a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) exacerbation has been demonstrated, particularly in the first month post-exacerbation. However, the clinical profile of patients who develop heart failure (HF) or atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) following exacerbation is unclear. Therefore we examined factors associated with people being hospitalized for HF or AF, respectively, following a COPD exacerbation. METHODS: We conducted two nested case-control studies, using primary care electronic healthcare records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, Office for National Statistics for mortality, and socioeconomic data (2014-2020). Cases had hospitalization for HF or AF within 30 days of a COPD exacerbation, with controls matched by GP practice (HF 2:1;AF 3:1). We used conditional logistic regression to explore demographic and clinical factors associated with HF and AF hospitalization. RESULTS: Odds of HF hospitalization (1,569 cases, 3,138 controls) increased with age, type II diabetes, obesity, HF and arrhythmia history, exacerbation severity (hospitalization), most cardiovascular medications, GOLD airflow obstruction, MRC dyspnea score, and chronic kidney disease. Strongest associations were for severe exacerbations (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=6.25, 95%CI 5.10-7.66), prior HF (aOR=2.57, 95%CI 1.73-3.83), age≥80 years (aOR=2.41, 95%CI 1.88-3.09), and prior diuretics prescription (aOR=2.81, 95%CI 2.29-3.45). Odds of AF hospitalization (841 cases, 2,523 controls) increased with age, male sex, severe exacerbation, arrhythmia and pulmonary hypertension history and most cardiovascular medications. Strongest associations were for severe exacerbations (aOR=5.78, 95%CI 4.45-7.50), age≥80 years (aOR=3.15, 95%CI 2.26-4.40), arrhythmia (aOR=3.55, 95%CI 2.53-4.98), pulmonary hypertension (aOR=3.05, 95%CI 1.21-7.68), and prescription of anticoagulants (aOR=3.81, 95%CI 2.57-5.64), positive inotropes (aOR=2.29, 95%CI 1.41-3.74) and anti-arrhythmic drugs (aOR=2.14, 95%CI 1.10-4.15). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiopulmonary factors were associated with hospitalization for HF in the 30 days following a COPD exacerbation, while only cardiovascular-related factors and exacerbation severity were associated with AF hospitalization. Understanding factors will help target people for prevention.

Frequency and severity of respiratory infections prior to COPD diagnosis and risk of subsequent postdiagnosis COPD exacerbations and mortality: EXACOS-UK health care data study.

OBJECTIVE: Little is known about how lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) before chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are associated with future exacerbations and mortality. We investigated this association in patients with COPD in England. METHODS: Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics data were used. Start of follow-up was patient's first ever COPD diagnosis date and a 1-year baseline period prior to start of follow-up was used to find mild LRTIs (general practice (GP) events/no antibiotics), moderate LRTIs (GP events+antibiotics) and severe LRTIs (hospitalised). Patients were categorised as having: none, 1 mild only, 2+ mild only, 1 moderate, 2+ moderate and 1+ severe. Negative binomial regression modelled the association between baseline LRTIs and subsequent COPD exacerbations and Cox proportional hazard regression was used to investigate mortality. RESULTS: In 215 234 patients with COPD, increasing frequency and severity of mild and moderate LRTIs were associated with increased rates of subsequent exacerbations compared with no recorded LRTIs (1 mild adjusted IRR 1.16, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.18, 2+ mild IRR 1.51, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.55, 1 moderate IRR 1.81, 95% CI 1.78 to 1.85, 2+ moderate IRR 2.55, 95% CI 2.48 to 2.63). Patients with 1+ severe LRTI (vs no baseline LRTIs) also showed an increased rate of future exacerbations (adjusted IRR 1.75, 95% CI, 1.70 to 1.80). This pattern of association was similar for risk of all-cause and COPD-related mortality; however, patients with 1+ severe LRTIs had the highest risk of all-cause and COPD mortality. CONCLUSION: Increasing frequency and severity of LRTIs prior to COPD diagnosis were associated with increasing rates of subsequent exacerbations, and increasing risk of all-cause and COPD-related mortality.

Risk of cardiovascular events after an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: results from the EXACOS-CV cohort study using the PHARMO Data Network in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: People living with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have an increased risk of experiencing cardiovascular (CV) events, particularly after an exacerbation. Such CV burden is not yet known for incident COPD patients. We examined the risk of severe CV events in incident COPD patients in periods following either moderate and/or severe exacerbations. METHODS: Persons aged ≥ 40 years with an incident COPD diagnosis from the PHARMO Data Network were included. Exposed time periods included 1-7, 8-14, 15-30, 31-180 and 181-365 days following an exacerbation. Moderate exacerbations were defined as those managed in outpatient settings; severe exacerbations as those requiring hospitalisation. The outcome was a composite of time to first severe CV event (acute coronary syndrome, heart failure decompensation, cerebral ischaemia, or arrhythmia) or death. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated for association between each exposed period and outcome. RESULTS: 8020 patients with newly diagnosed COPD were identified. 2234 patients (28%) had ≥ 1 exacerbation, 631 patients (8%) had a non-fatal CV event, and 461 patients (5%) died during a median follow-up of 36 months. The risk of experiencing the composite outcome was increased following a moderate/severe exacerbation as compared to time periods of stable disease [range of HR: from 15.3 (95% confidence interval 11.8-20.0) in days 1-7 to 1.3 (1.0-1.8) in days 181-365]. After a moderate exacerbation, the risk was increased over the first 180 days [HR 2.5 (1.3-4.8) in days 1-7 to 1.6 (1.3-2.1) in days 31-180]. After a severe exacerbation, the risk increased substantially and remained higher over the year following the exacerbation [HR 48.6 (36.9-64.0) in days 1-7 down to 1.6 (1.0-2.6) in days 181-365]. Increase in risk concerned all categories of severe CV events. CONCLUSIONS: Among incident COPD patients, we observed a substantial risk increase of severe CV events or all-cause death following either a moderate or severe exacerbation of COPD. Increase in risk was highest in the initial period following an exacerbation. These findings highlight the significant cardiopulmonary burden among people living with COPD even with a new diagnosis.

A first step towards best practice recommendations for the design and statistical analyses of pragmatic clinical trials: A modified Delphi approach.

AIM: Pragmatic clinical trials (PCTs) are randomized trials implemented through routine clinical practice, where design parameters of traditional randomized controlled trials are modified to increase generalizability. However, this may introduce statistical challenges. We aimed to identify these challenges and discuss possible solutions leading to best practice recommendations for the design and analysis of PCTs. METHODS: A modified Delphi method was used to reach consensus among a panel of 11 experts in clinical trials and statistics. Statistical issues were identified in a focused literature review and aggregated with insights and possible solutions from experts collected through a series of survey iterations. Issues were ranked according to their importance. RESULTS: Twenty-seven articles were included and combined with experts' insight to generate a list of issues categorized into participants, recruiting sites, randomization, blinding and intervention, outcome (selection and measurement) and data analysis. Consensus was reached about the most important issues: risk of participants' attrition, heterogeneity of "usual care" across sites, absence of blinding, use of a subjective endpoint and data analysis aligned with the trial estimand. Potential issues should be anticipated and preferably be addressed in the trial protocol. The experts provided solutions regarding data collection and data analysis, which were considered of equal importance. DISCUSSION: A set of important statistical issues in PCTs was identified and approaches were suggested to anticipate and/or minimize these through data analysis. Any impact of choosing a pragmatic design feature should be gauged in the light of the trial estimand.

Stroke Prevention by Anticoagulants in Daily Practice Depending on Atrial Fibrillation Pattern and Clinical Risk Factors.

Background and Purpose: The objective of the study was to assess the effectiveness of individual direct oral anticoagulants versus vitamin K antagonists for primary prevention of stroke (ischemic and hemorrhagic) in routine clinical practice in patients with various clinical risk factors depending on their atrial fibrillation (AF) patterns. Methods: A nested case-referent study was conducted using data from 2 national registries of patients with stroke and AF. Stroke cases with previous history of AF were matched to up to 2 randomly selected referent patients with AF and no stroke. The association of individual anticoagulant use with ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke was studied in patients with or without permanent AF using multivariable conditional logistic models, controlled for clinically significant risk factors and multiple other cardiovascular risk factors. Results: In total, 2586 stroke cases with previous AF and 4810 nonstroke referent patients with AF were retained for the study. Direct oral anticoagulant users had lower odds of stroke of any type than vitamin K antagonist users: the adjusted-matched OR for ischemic stroke were 0.70 (95% CI, 0.50­0.98) for dabigatran, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.53­0.86) for rivaroxaban, and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.52­1.02) for apixaban while for hemorrhagic stroke they were 0.31 (95% CI, 0.14­0.68), 0.64 (95% CI, 0.39­1.06), and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.33­1.49), respectively. The effects of individual direct oral anticoagulants relative to vitamin K antagonists were similar in permanent AF and nonpermanent AF patients. Conclusions: Similar results were observed for each direct oral anticoagulant in real life as those observed in the pivotal clinical trials. The pattern of AF did not affect the outcome.

Cross-cultural selection and validation of instruments to assess patient-reported outcomes in children and adolescents with achondroplasia.

PURPOSE: Achondroplasia, as the most common form of disproportionate short stature, potentially impacts the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and functioning of people with this condition. Because there are no psychometrically validated patient-reported outcome (PRO) condition-specific instruments for achondroplasia, this study selected and tested available generic, disease-specific and under development questionnaires for possible use in multinational clinical research. METHODS: A three-step approach was applied. First, a literature review and clinician/expert opinions were used to select relevant PRO questionnaires. Second, focus group discussions, including a group cognitive debriefing for piloting of the questionnaires with children/adolescents with achondroplasia and their parents, were performed in Spain and Germany. Third, a field-test study was conducted to test the psychometric properties of these instruments. RESULTS: Six questionnaires were identified as potentially relevant in children with achondroplasia. In each country, five focus groups including a cognitive debriefing were conducted, and the results narrowed the possibilities to three instruments as most appropriate to assess HRQOL (the generic PedsQL, the height-specific QoLISSY, and the achondroplasia-specific APLES). Results of the field study indicate the QoLISSY and the PedsQL questionnaires to be most appropriate for use in clinical research at this time. CONCLUSION: This selection study is a step forward in assessing the impact of achondroplasia on HRQOL. Of the instruments examined, the QoLISSY and the PedsQL both capture items relevant to children with achondroplasia and have met the psychometric validation criteria needed for use in research. The APLES instrument is a promising tool that should be revisited upon psychometric validation.

The "RCT augmentation": a novel simulation method to add patient heterogeneity into phase III trials.

BACKGROUND: Phase III randomized controlled trials (RCT) typically exclude certain patient subgroups, thereby potentially jeopardizing estimation of a drug's effects when prescribed to wider populations and under routine care ("effectiveness"). Conversely, enrolling heterogeneous populations in RCTs can increase endpoint variability and compromise detection of a drug's effect. We developed the "RCT augmentation" method to quantitatively support RCT design in the identification of exclusion criteria to relax to address both of these considerations. In the present manuscript, we describe the method and a case study in schizophrenia. METHODS: We applied typical RCT exclusion criteria in a real-world dataset (cohort) of schizophrenia patients to define the "RCT population" subgroup, and assessed the impact of re-including each of the following patient subgroups: (1) illness duration 1-3 years; (2) suicide attempt; (3) alcohol abuse; (4) substance abuse; and (5) private practice management. Predictive models were built using data from different "augmented RCT populations" (i.e., subgroups where patients with one or two of such characteristics were re-included) to estimate the absolute effectiveness of the two most prevalent antipsychotics against real-world results from the entire cohort. Concurrently, the impact on RCT results of relaxing exclusion criteria was evaluated by calculating the comparative efficacy of those two antipsychotics in virtual RCTs drawing on different "augmented RCT populations". RESULTS: Data from the "RCT population", which was defined with typical exclusion criteria, allowed for a prediction of effectiveness with a bias < 2% and mean squared error (MSE) = 5.8-6.8%. Compared to this typical RCT, RCTs using augmented populations provided improved effectiveness predictions (bias < 2%, MSE = 5.3-6.7%), while returning more variable comparative effects. The impact of augmentation depended on the exclusion criterion relaxed. Furthermore, half of the benefit of relaxing each criterion was gained from re-including the first 10-20% of patients with the corresponding real-world characteristic. CONCLUSIONS: Simulating the inclusion of real-world subpopulations into an RCT before running it allows for quantification of the impact of each re-inclusion upon effect detection (statistical power) and generalizability of trial results, thereby explicating this trade-off and enabling a controlled increase in population heterogeneity in the RCT design.

Childhood immune thrombocytopenia: A nationwide cohort study on condition management and outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: Nationwide prospective cohort study exploring (i) the factors associated with treatment initiation (vs. watchful waiting) in children with primary immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) followed in routine clinical practice and (ii) the predictors of chronicity at 12 months. PROCEDURE: Between 2008 and 2013, 23 centers throughout France consecutively included 257 children aged 6 months-18 years and diagnosed with primary ITP over a 5-year period. Data on ITP clinical features along with medical management were collected at baseline and 12 months. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to determine (i) and (ii) as defined above, providing odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI). RESULTS: One hundred thirty-seven (53%) children were males, median age was 4.6 years, median platelet count was 7 × 109/l, and 214 (81%) patients initiated medication. Factors independently associated with treatment initiation included platelet counts <10 × 109/l (P < 0.0001) and mucocutaneous bleeding symptoms at baseline (P < 0.001). At 12 months, data were available for 211 (82%) children, of whom 160 (74%) had recovered. Predictors of chronicity included female gender (OR = 2.2; 95% CI = 1.0-4.8), age ≥10 years (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-6.0), and platelet counts ≥10 × 109 /l (OR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.5-6.9). CONCLUSIONS: In routine clinical practice, the decision to apply a watchful waiting strategy seems to be driven by platelet counts even in the absence of bleeding symptoms, resulting in treatment being initiated in more than 80% of the children surveyed. Overall, younger children with ITP showed good prognosis, with lower platelet counts and, to a lesser extent, male gender predicting more favorable outcomes.

Antiepileptic drugs and risk of suicide attempts: a case-control study exploring the impact of underlying medical conditions.

PURPOSE: Randomized-controlled trials and claims databases suggest that antiepileptic drug (AED) use may increase the risk of suicide attempts (SA). The present case-control study explores the impact of underlying indications on this potential association. METHODS: Physicians collected the medical history; prior 12-month drug use was obtained from standardized telephone interviews with patients. The association between AED use and SA was explored using multivariate conditional logistic regression. The analyses were replicated after stratification on depression and neurological disorders (epilepsy, migraine, and chronic neuropathic pain). RESULTS: Between 2008 and 2012, 506 adults with an incident SA were recruited in suicide treatment centers from across France and socio-demographically matched to 2829 controls from primary care settings. The association between AED use and odds of SA was not significant overall (odds ratio [OR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.9-2.4). No association was observed for patients with neurological disorders (OR, 1.1; 95%CI, 0.5-2.4) as opposed to patients with depression (OR, 1.6; 95%CI, 1.0-2.5), but unmeasured confounding was suspected. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the association observed between AED use and increased odds of non-fatal SA in patients with either a lifetime history of depression or no neurological disorder may be explained by the presence of an underlying psychiatric disorder. Accounting for underlying indications is crucial in drug safety studies, as these can cause a reported association (or lack thereof) to be misleading. This may require the prospective collection of medical data at a patient level. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Immune thrombocytopenia in adults: a prospective cohort study of clinical features and predictors of outcome.

This prospective observational cohort study aimed to explore the clinical features of incident immune thrombocytopenia in adults and predictors of outcome, while determining if a family history of autoimmune disorder is a risk factor for immune thrombocytopenia. All adults, 18 years of age or older, recently diagnosed with immune thrombocytopenia were consecutively recruited across 21 hospital centers in France. Data were collected at diagnosis and after 12 months. Predictors of chronicity at 12 months were explored using logistic regression models. The association between family history of autoimmune disorder and the risk of developing immune thrombocytopenia was explored using a conditional logistic regression model after matching each case to 10 controls. One hundred and forty-three patients were included: 63% female, mean age 48 years old (Standard Deviation=19), and 84% presented with bleeding symptoms. Median platelet count was 10×10(9)/L. Initial treatment was required in 82% of patients. After 12 months, only 37% of patients not subject to disease-modifying interventions achieved cure. The sole possible predictor of chronicity at 12 months was a higher platelet count at baseline [Odds Ratio 1.03; 95%CI: 1.00, 1.06]. No association was found between outcome and any of the following features: age, sex, presence of either bleeding symptoms or antinuclear antibodies at diagnosis. Likewise, family history of autoimmune disorder was not associated with incident immune thrombocytopenia. Immune thrombocytopenia in adults has been shown to progress to a chronic form in the majority of patients. A lower platelet count could be indicative of a more favorable outcome.

The "Efficacy-Effectiveness Gap": Historical Background and Current Conceptualization.

BACKGROUND: The concept of the "efficacy-effectiveness gap" (EEG) has started to challenge confidence in decisions made for drugs when based on randomized controlled trials alone. Launched by the Innovative Medicines Initiative, the GetReal project aims to improve understanding of how to reconcile evidence to support efficacy and effectiveness and at proposing operational solutions. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of the present narrative review were 1) to understand the historical background in which the concept of the EEG has emerged and 2) to describe the conceptualization of EEG. METHODS: A focused literature review was conducted across the gray literature and articles published in English reporting insights on the EEG concept. The identification of different "paradigms" was performed by simple inductive analysis of the documents' content. RESULTS: The literature on the EEG falls into three major paradigms, in which EEG is related to 1) real-life characteristics of the health care system; 2) the method used to measure the drug's effect; and 3) a complex interaction between the drug's biological effect and contextual factors. CONCLUSIONS: The third paradigm provides an opportunity to look beyond any dichotomy between "standardized" versus "real-life" characteristics of the health care system and study designs. Namely, future research will determine whether the identification of these contextual factors can help to best design randomized controlled trials that provide better estimates of drugs' effectiveness.

Increased Risk of Severe Cardiovascular Events Following Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Results of the EXACOS-CV Study in Japan.

INTRODUCTION: Severe exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are known to increase the risk of cardiovascular events. However, this association has not been investigated specifically in patients with COPD in Japan, whose characteristics may differ from those of Western patients (i.e., western Europe, the US, and Canada). METHODS: This longitudinal retrospective cohort study analyzed secondary claims data and included patients aged ≥ 40 years with COPD (International Classification of Diseases-10 codes J41-J44). All exacerbations occurring during follow-up were measured. Time-dependent Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between time periods following an exacerbation of COPD (vs. time prior to a first exacerbation) and occurrence of a first hospitalization for a severe fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event. RESULTS: The analysis included 152,712 patients with COPD with a mean age of 73.8 years and 37.6% of whom were female. During a median follow-up of 37 months, 63,182 (41.4%) patients experienced ≥ 1 exacerbation and 13,314 (8.7%) patients experienced ≥ 1 severe cardiovascular event. Following an exacerbation of COPD, the risk of a severe cardiovascular event was increased in the first 30 days [adjusted HR (aHR) 1.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.55] and remained elevated for 365 days post-exacerbation (aHR 1.13, 95% CI 1.04-1.23). Specifically, the risks of acute coronary syndrome or arrhythmias remained significantly increased for up to 180 days, and the risk of decompensated heart failure for 1 year. CONCLUSION: Among Japanese patients with COPD, the risk of experiencing a severe cardiovascular event increased following a COPD exacerbation and remained elevated for 365 days, emphasizing the need to prevent exacerbations.

Risk of severe cardiovascular events following COPD exacerbations: results from the EXACOS-CV study in Spain.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: This real-world study-the first of its kind in a Spanish population-aimed to explore severe risk for cardiovascular events and all-cause death following exacerbations in a large cohort of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: We included individuals with a COPD diagnosis code between 2014 and 2018 from the BIG-PAC health care claims database. The primary outcome was a composite of a first severe cardiovascular event (acute coronary syndrome, heart failure decompensation, cerebral ischemia, arrhythmia) or all-cause death following inclusion in the cohort. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models estimated HRs for associations between exposed time periods (1-7, 8-14, 15-30, 31-180, 181-365, and >365 days) following an exacerbation of any severity, and following moderate or severe exacerbations separately (vs unexposed time before a first exacerbation following cohort inclusion). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.03 years, 18 901 of 24 393 patients (77.5%) experienced ≥ 1 moderate/severe exacerbation, and 8741 (35.8%) experienced the primary outcome. The risk of a severe cardiovascular event increased following moderate/severe COPD exacerbation onset vs the unexposed period, with rates being most increased during the first 1 to 7 days following exacerbation onset (HR, 10.10; 95%CI, 9.29-10.97) and remaining increased >365 days after exacerbation onset (HR, 1.65; 95%CI, 1.49-1.82). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of severe cardiovascular events or death increased following moderate/severe exacerbation onset, illustrating the need for proactive multidisciplinary care of patients with COPD to prevent exacerbations and address other cardiovascular risk factors.

Cardiovascular events after exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: Results from the EXAcerbations of COPD and their OutcomeS in CardioVascular diseases study in Italy.

INTRODUCTION: Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can increase the risk of severe cardiovascular events. OBJECTIVE: Assess the crude incidence rates (IR) of cardiovascular events and the impact of exacerbations on the risk of cardiovascular events within different time periods following an exacerbation. METHODS: COPD patients aged ≥45 years between 01/01/2015 and 12/31/2018 were identified from the Fondazione Ricerca e Salute administrative database. IRs of severe non-fatal and fatal cardiovascular events were obtained for post-exacerbation time periods (1-7, 8-14, 15-30, 31-180, 181-365 days). Time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models compared cardiovascular risks between periods with and without exacerbations. RESULTS: Of 216,864 COPD patients, >55 % were male, mean age was 74 years, frequent comorbidities were cardiovascular, metabolic and psychiatric. During an average 34-month follow-up, 69,620 (32 %) patients had ≥1 exacerbation and 46,214 (21 %) experienced ≥1 cardiovascular event. During follow-up, 55,470 patients died; 4,661 were in-hospital cardiovascular-related deaths. Among 10,269 patients experiencing cardiovascular events within 365 days post-exacerbation, the IR was 15.8 per 100 person-years (95 %CI 15.5-16.1). Estimated hazard ratios (HR) for the cardiovascular event risk associated with periods post-exacerbation were highest within 7 days (HR: 34.3, 95 %CI: 33.1-35.6), especially for heart failure (HR 50.6; 95 %CI 48.6-52.7) and remained elevated throughout 365 days (HR 1.1, 95 %CI 1.02-1.13). CONCLUSIONS: COPD patients in Italy are at high risk of severe cardiovascular events following exacerbations, suggesting the need to prevent exacerbations and possible subsequent cardiovascular events through early interventions and treatment optimization.

Heightened long-term cardiovascular risks after exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the risk of adverse cardiovascular (CV) events following an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study identified patients with COPD using administrative data from Alberta, Canada from 2014 to 2019. Exposure periods were 12 months following moderate or severe exacerbations; the reference period was time preceding a first exacerbation. The primary outcome was the composite of all-cause death or a first hospitalisation for acute coronary syndrome, heart failure (HF), arrhythmia or cerebral ischaemia. Time-dependent Cox regression models estimated covariate-adjusted risks associated with six exposure subperiods following exacerbation. RESULTS: Among 1 42 787 patients (mean age 68.1 years and 51.7% men) 61 981 (43.4%) experienced at least one exacerbation and 34 068 (23.9%) died during median follow-up of 64 months. The primary outcome occurred in 43 564 (30.5%) patients with an incidence rate prior to exacerbation of 5.43 (95% CI 5.36 to 5.50) per 100 person-years. This increased to 95.61 per 100 person-years in the 1-7 days postexacerbation (adjusted HR 15.86, 95% CI 15.17 to 16.58) and remained increased for up to 1 year. The risk of both the composite and individual CV events was increased following either a moderate or a severe exacerbation, though greater and more prolonged following severe exacerbation. The highest magnitude of increased risk was observed for HF decompensation (1-7 days, HR 72.34, 95% CI 64.43 to 81.22). CONCLUSION: Moderate and severe COPD exacerbations are independent risk factors for adverse CV events, especially HF decompensation. The impact of optimising COPD management on CV outcomes should be evaluated.

Risk of Death and Cardiovascular Events Following an Exacerbation of COPD: The EXACOS-CV US Study.

Purpose: This study estimated the magnitude and duration of risk of cardiovascular events and mortality following acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD), and whether risks varied by number and severity of exacerbation in a commercially insured population in the United States. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of newly diagnosed COPD patients ≥40 years old in the Healthcare Integrated Research Database from 2012 to 2019. Patients experiencing exacerbations comprised the "exacerbation cohort". Moderate exacerbations were outpatient visits with contemporaneous antibiotic or glucocorticoid administration; severe exacerbations were emergency department visits or hospitalizations for AECOPD. Follow-up started on the exacerbation date. Distribution of time between diagnosis and first exacerbation was used to assign index dates to the "unexposed" cohort. Cox proportional hazards models estimated risks of a cardiovascular event or death following an exacerbation adjusted for medical and prescription history and stratified by follow-up time, type of cardiovascular event, exacerbation severity, and rank of exacerbation (first, second, or third). Results: Among 435,925 patients, 170,236 experienced ≥1 exacerbation. Risk of death was increased for 2 years following an exacerbation and was highest during the first 30 days (any exacerbation hazard ratio (HR)=1.79, 95% CI=1.58-2.04; moderate HR=1.22, 95% CI=1.04-1.43; severe HR=5.09, 95% CI=4.30-6.03). Risks of cardiovascular events were increased for 1 year following an AECOPD and highest in the first 30-days (any exacerbation HR=1.34, 95% CI=1.23-1.46; moderate HR=1.23 (95% CI 1.12-1.35); severe HR=1.93 (95% CI=1.67-2.22)). Each subsequent AECOPD was associated with incrementally higher rates of both death and cardiovascular events. Conclusion: Risk of death and cardiovascular events was greatest in the first 30 days and rose with subsequent exacerbations. Risks were elevated for 1-2 years following moderate and severe exacerbations, highlighting a sustained increased cardiopulmonary risk associated with exacerbations.

Elucidating the risk of cardiopulmonary consequences of an exacerbation of COPD: results of the EXACOS-CV study in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) represent a period of vulnerability. This study explored the association between time periods following an exacerbation and the risk of severe cardiovascular (CV) events or death in Germany. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study was conducted using routinely collected healthcare data. Individuals with COPD were identified between 2014 and 2018. Exposure was moderate or severe exacerbation of COPD. Periods at risk were the 1-7, 8-14, 15-30, 31-180 and 181-365 days following each exacerbation onset occurring after cohort entry. The main outcome of interest was the first hospitalisation for a CV event or all-cause death. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models estimated the HR for the association between subperiods versus periods outside exacerbations, and the risk of outcome. RESULTS: Among 126 795 patients, 58 720 (46.3%) exacerbated at least once and 48 982 (38.6%) experienced at least one CV event or died during a median follow-up of 36 months. The rate of outcome was increased during 1-7 days following a severe exacerbation onset (HR 15.84, 95% CI 15.26 to 16.45), and remained elevated for up to a year (181-365 days HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.23). In the 1-7 days following a moderate exacerbation onset, the increased rate was HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.31). CONCLUSION: The risk of a CV event or death increased in time periods following both moderate and severe exacerbations of COPD, emphasising the need to promptly manage the risk of CV events following the onset of an exacerbation, to prevent exacerbations of any severity, and more generally, to address the cardiopulmonary risk in patients with COPD.

Testing the "RCT augmentation" methodology: A trial simulation study to guide the broadening of trials eligibility criteria and inform on effectiveness.

Background: Exclusion criteria that are treatment effect modifiers (TEM) decrease RCTs results generalisability and the potentials of effectiveness estimation. In "augmented RCTs", a small proportion of otherwise-excluded patients are included to allow for effectiveness estimation. In Hodgkin Lymphoma (HL) RCTs, older age and comorbidity are common exclusion criteria, while also TEM. We simulated HL RCTs augmented with age or comorbidity, and explored in each scenario the impact of augmentation on effectiveness estimation accuracy. Methods: Simulated data with a population of HL individuals initiating drug A or B was generated. There were drug-age and drug-comorbidity interactions in the simulated data, with a greater magnitude of the former compared to the latter. Multiple augmented RCTs were simulated by randomly selecting patients with increasing proportions of older, or comorbid patients. Treatment effect size was expressed using the between-group Restricted Mean Survival Time (RMST) difference at 3 years. For each augmentation proportion, a model estimating the "real-world" treatment effect (effectiveness) was fitted and the estimation error measured (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE). Results: In simulated RCTs including none (0%), or the real-world proportion (30%) of older patients, the interquartile range of RMST difference was 0.4-0.5 years and 0.2-0.3 years, respectively, and RMSE were 0.198 years (highest possible error) and 0.056 years (lowest), respectively. Augmenting RCTs with 5% older patients decreased estimation error substantially (RMSE = 0.076 years). Augmentation with comorbid patients proved less useful for effectiveness estimation. Conclusion: In augmented RCTs aiming to inform the effectiveness of drugs, augmentation should concern in priority those exclusion criteria of suspected important TEM magnitude, so as to minimie the proportion of augmentation necessary for good effectiveness estimations.

History of Respiratory Events Prior to a First COPD Diagnosis and Future Exacerbations: A Longitudinal Observational Cohort Database Study in Japan.

Background: Little is known about the association between respiratory events prior to diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and future clinical outcomes in Japan. We investigated the association between pre-COPD diagnosis respiratory events and the incidence of exacerbations in a cohort of newly diagnosed COPD patients in Japan. Patients and Methods: Data were retrieved from the JMDC claims database. Patients ≥40 years old with a first COPD diagnosis (≥1 hospitalization or ≥2 outpatient claims for COPD) between 2010 and 2016 were included. The incidence rate (IR) of exacerbations in patients with or without any respiratory event (including lower respiratory tract infection and respiratory failure) in the year preceding diagnosis was compared. A negative binomial model explored the association between pre-diagnosis respiratory event and IR ratio (IRR) of exacerbations. Results: A total of 20,212 patients newly diagnosed with COPD were identified: 61% male, mean age 55 years (SD 9); of these, 955 (4.7%) had experienced ≥1 respiratory event in the year preceding diagnosis. Median duration of follow-up was 3.3 years during which the IR of exacerbations was 0.31 per patient-year (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29-0.33) in patients with respiratory event, and 0.11 (95% CI 0.10-0.13) in patients without. The IR for severe exacerbation was nearly 10 times greater in patients with respiratory event versus without. Experiencing respiratory event pre-diagnosis was independently associated with an increased IRR of future moderate-to-severe exacerbation (adjusted IRR, 2.7; 95% CI 2.3-3.1). Conclusion: Patients experiencing respiratory events in the year preceding COPD diagnosis should be considered at-risk of worse clinical COPD outcomes.