Inverse priority effects: A role for historical contingency during species losses.

Communities worldwide are losing multiple species at an unprecedented rate, but how communities reassemble after these losses is often an open question. It is well established that the order and timing of species arrival during community assembly shapes forthcoming community composition and function. Yet, whether the order and timing of species losses can lead to divergent community trajectories remains largely unexplored. Here, we propose a novel framework that sets testable hypotheses on the effects of the order and timing of species losses-inverse priority effects-and suggests its integration into the study of community assembly. We propose that the order and timing of species losses within a community can generate alternative reassembly trajectories, and suggest mechanisms that may underlie these inverse priority effects. To formalize these concepts quantitatively, we used a three-species Lotka-Volterra competition model, enabling to investigate conditions in which the order of species losses can lead to divergent reassembly trajectories. The inverse priority effects framework proposed here promotes the systematic study of the dynamics of species losses from ecological communities, ultimately aimed to better understand community reassembly and guide management decisions in light of rapid global change.

Biological invasions are a population-level rather than a species-level phenomenon.

Biological invasions pose a rapidly expanding threat to the persistence, functioning and service provisioning of ecosystems globally, and to socio-economic interests. The stages of successful invasions are driven by the same mechanism that underlies adaptive changes across species in general-via natural selection on intraspecific variation in traits that influence survival and reproductive performance (i.e., fitness). Surprisingly, however, the rapid progress in the field of invasion science has resulted in a predominance of species-level approaches (such as deny lists), often irrespective of natural selection theory, local adaptation and other population-level processes that govern successful invasions. To address these issues, we analyse non-native species dynamics at the population level by employing a database of European freshwater macroinvertebrate time series, to investigate spreading speed, abundance dynamics and impact assessments among populations. Our findings reveal substantial variability in spreading speed and abundance trends within and between macroinvertebrate species across biogeographic regions, indicating that levels of invasiveness and impact differ markedly. Discrepancies and inconsistencies among species-level risk screenings and real population-level data were also identified, highlighting the inherent challenges in accurately assessing population-level effects through species-level assessments. In recognition of the importance of population-level assessments, we urge a shift in invasive species management frameworks, which should account for the dynamics of different populations and their environmental context. Adopting an adaptive, region-specific and population-focused approach is imperative, considering the diverse ecological contexts and varying degrees of susceptibility. Such an approach could improve and refine risk assessments while promoting mechanistic understandings of risks and impacts, thereby enabling the development of more effective conservation and management strategies.

Predicting the impact of invasive trees from different measures of abundance.

Biological invasions produce negative impacts worldwide, causing massive economic costs and ecological impacts. Knowing the relationship between invasive species abundance and the magnitude of their impacts (abundance-impact curves) is critical to designing prevention and management strategies that effectively tackle these impacts. However, different measures of abundance may produce different abundance-impact curves. Woody plants are among the most transformative invaders, especially in grassland ecosystems because of the introduction of hitherto absent life forms. In this study, our first goal was to assess the impact of a woody invader, Pinus contorta (hereafter pine), on native grassland productivity and livestock grazing in Patagonia (Argentina), building abundance-impact curves. Our second goal, was to compare different measure of pine abundance (density, basal area and canopy cover) as predictors of pine's impact on grassland productivity. Our third goal, was to compare abundance-impact curves among the mentioned measures of pine abundance and among different measures of impact: total grassland productivity, palatable productivity and sheep stocking rate (the number of sheep that the grassland can sustainably support). Pine canopy cover, closely followed by basal area, was the measure of abundance that best explained the impact on grassland productivity, but the shape of abundance impact curves differed between measures of abundance. While increases in pine density and basal area always reduced grassland productivity, pine canopy cover below 30% slightly increased grassland productivity and higher values caused an exponential decline. This increase in grassland productivity with low levels of pine canopy cover could be explained by the amelioration of stressful abiotic conditions for grassland species. Different measures of impact, namely total productivity, palatable productivity and sheep stocking rate, drew very similar results. Our abundance-impact curves are key to guide the management of invasive pines because a proper assessment of how many invasive individuals (per surface unit) are unacceptable, according to environmental or economic impact thresholds, is fundamental to define when to start management actions.

Identifying Priorities, Targets, and Actions for the Long-term Social and Ecological Management of Invasive Non-Native Species.

Formulating effective management plans for addressing the impacts of invasive non-native species (INNS) requires the definition of clear priorities and tangible targets, and the recognition of the plurality of societal values assigned to these species. These tasks require a multi-disciplinary approach and the involvement of stakeholders. Here, we describe procedures to integrate multiple sources of information to formulate management priorities, targets, and high-level actions for the management of INNS. We follow five good-practice criteria: justified, evidence-informed, actionable, quantifiable, and flexible. We used expert knowledge methods to compile 17 lists of ecological, social, and economic impacts of lodgepole pines (Pinus contorta) and American mink (Neovison vison) in Chile and Argentina, the privet (Ligustrum lucidum) in Argentina, the yellow-jacket wasp (Vespula germanica) in Chile, and grasses (Urochloa brizantha and Urochloa decumbens) in Brazil. INNS plants caused a greater number of impacts than INNS animals, although more socio-economic impacts were listed for INNS animals than for plants. These impacts were ranked according to their magnitude and level of confidence on the information used for the ranking to prioritise impacts and assign them one of four high-level actions-do nothing, monitor, research, and immediate active management. We showed that it is possible to formulate management priorities, targets, and high-level actions for a variety of INNS and with variable levels of available information. This is vital in a world where the problems caused by INNS continue to increase, and there is a parallel growth in the implementation of management plans to deal with them.

The role of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in nonnative plant invasion along mountain roads.

Plant associated mutualists can mediate invasion success by affecting the ecological niche of nonnative plant species. Anthropogenic disturbance is also key in facilitating invasion success through changes in biotic and abiotic conditions, but the combined effect of these two factors in natural environments is understudied. To better understand this interaction, we investigated how disturbance and its interaction with mycorrhizas could impact range dynamics of nonnative plant species in the mountains of Norway. Therefore, we studied the root colonisation and community composition of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi in disturbed vs undisturbed plots along mountain roads. We found that roadside disturbance strongly increases fungal diversity and richness while also promoting AM fungal root colonisation in an otherwise ecto-mycorrhiza and ericoid-mycorrhiza dominated environment. Surprisingly, AM fungi associating with nonnative plant species were present across the whole elevation gradient, even above the highest elevational limit of nonnative plants, indicating that mycorrhizal fungi are not currently limiting the upward movement of nonnative plants. We conclude that roadside disturbance has a positive effect on AM fungal colonisation and richness, possibly supporting the spread of nonnative plants, but that there is no absolute limitation of belowground mutualists, even at high elevation.

Soil biotic and abiotic effects on seedling growth exhibit context-dependent interactions: evidence from a multi-country experiment on Pinus contorta invasion.

The success of invasive plants is influenced by many interacting factors, but evaluating multiple possible mechanisms of invasion success and elucidating the relative importance of abiotic and biotic drivers is challenging, and therefore rarely achieved. We used live, sterile or inoculated soil from different soil origins (native range and introduced range plantation; and invaded plots spanning three different countries) in a fully factorial design to simultaneously examine the influence of soil origin and soil abiotic and biotic factors on the growth of invasive Pinus contorta. Our results displayed significant context dependency in that certain soil abiotic conditions in the introduced ranges (soil nitrogen, phosphorus or carbon content) influenced responses to inoculation treatments. Our findings do not support the enemy release hypothesis or the enhanced mutualism hypothesis, as biota from native and plantation ranges promoted growth similarly. Instead, our results support the missed mutualism hypothesis, as biota from invasive ranges were the least beneficial for seedling growth. Our study provides a novel perspective on how variation in soil abiotic factors can influence plant-soil feedbacks for an invasive tree across broad biogeographical contexts.

Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment.

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Suilloid fungi as global drivers of pine invasions.

Belowground biota can deeply influence plant invasion. The presence of appropriate soil mutualists can act as a driver to enable plants to colonize new ranges. We reviewed the species of ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF) that facilitate pine establishment in both native and non-native ranges, and that are associated with their invasion into nonforest settings. We found that one particular group of EMF, suilloid fungi, uniquely drive pine invasion in the absence of other EMF. Although the association with other EMF is variable, suilloid EMF are always associated with invasive pines, particularly at early invasion, when invasive trees are most vulnerable. We identified five main ecological traits of suilloid fungi that may explain their key role at pine invasions: their long-distance dispersal capacity, the establishment of positive biotic interactions with mammals, their capacity to generate a resistant spore bank, their rapid colonization of roots and their long-distance exploration type. These results suggest that the identity of mycorrhizal fungi and their ecological interactions, rather than simply the presence of compatible fungi, are key to the understanding of plant invasion processes and their success or failure. Particularly for pines, their specific association with suilloid fungi determines their invasion success in previously uninvaded ecosystems.

Seed predation does not explain pine invasion success.

Why some non-native plant species invade, and others fail remains an elusive question. Plant invasion success has been associated with specific species traits. Yet, we have limited knowledge of the mechanisms relating these traits to invasion potential. General patterns of biotic resistance by seed predation may provide a mechanism that helps separate invasive from non-invasive plants. Seed predation is an important barrier against plant establishment for many plant species. It may, therefore, create a selective filter against non-native plant establishment based on plant traits related to seed predation rate. In two cafeteria-style seed predation experiments in a steppe ecosystem in Patagonia (Argentina) we provided seeds of 16 non-native Pinaceae covering a 300-fold variation in seed mass, a 200-fold variation in seed volume and 75-fold variation in seed toughness. Seed removal decreased with seed mass and seed volume. Seed toughness was not a significant predictor while seed volume was the best predictor of predators' preference. However, for species of this family small seed size is the most important predictor of species invasiveness. Our results show that seed predation does not explain Pinaceae invasive success. In our system, species that have smaller seeds (i.e., more invasive) are preferentially consumed by seed predators. Seed mass was not the best predictor of granivory rates, despite being the seed trait on which most studies have been focused. Our ability to predict future invasion and understand invasion success could benefit from other studies that focus on the mechanisms behind invasive traits.

Disturbance is the key to plant invasions in cold environments.

Until now, nonnative plant species were rarely found at high elevations and latitudes. However, partly because of climate warming, biological invasions are now on the rise in these extremely cold environments. These plant invasions make it timely to undertake a thorough experimental assessment of what has previously been holding them back. This knowledge is key to developing efficient management of the increasing risks of cold-climate invasions. Here, we integrate human interventions (i.e., disturbance, nutrient addition, and propagule input) and climatic factors (i.e., temperature) into one seed-addition experiment across two continents: the subantarctic Andes and subarctic Scandinavian mountains (Scandes), to disentangle their roles in limiting or favoring plant invasions. Disturbance was found as the main determinant of plant invader success (i.e., establishment, growth, and flowering) along the entire cold-climate gradient, explaining 40-60% of the total variance in our models, with no indication of any facilitative effect from the native vegetation. Higher nutrient levels additionally stimulated biomass production and flowering. Establishment and flowering displayed a hump-shaped response with increasing elevation, suggesting that competition is the main limit on invader success at low elevations, as opposed to low-growing-season temperatures at high elevations. Our experiment showed, however, that nonnative plants can establish, grow, and flower well above their current elevational limits in high-latitude mountains. We thus argue that cold-climate ecosystems are likely to see rapid increases in plant invasions in the near future as a result of a synergistic interaction between increasing human-mediated disturbances and climate warming.

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change.

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.

The emerging science of linked plant-fungal invasions.

Contents 1314 I. 1315 II. 1316 III. 1322 IV. 1323 V. 1325 VI. 1326 VII. 1326 VIII. 1327 1328 References 1328 SUMMARY: Invasions of alien plants are typically studied as invasions of individual species, yet interactions between plants and symbiotic fungi (mutualists and potential pathogens) affect plant survival, physiological traits, and reproduction and hence invasion success. Studies show that plant-fungal associations are frequently key drivers of plant invasion success and impact, but clear conceptual frameworks and integration across studies are needed to move beyond a series of case studies towards a more predictive understanding. Here, we consider linked plant-fungal invasions from the perspective of plant and fungal origin, simplified to the least complex representations or 'motifs'. By characterizing these interaction motifs, parallels in invasion processes between pathogen and mutualist fungi become clear, although the outcomes are often opposite in effect. These interaction motifs provide hypotheses for fungal-driven dynamics behind observed plant invasion trajectories. In some situations, the effects of plant-fungal interactions are inconsistent or negligible. Variability in when and where different interaction motifs matter may be driven by specificity in the plant-fungal interaction, the size of the effect of the symbiosis (negative to positive) on plants and the dependence (obligate to facultative) of the plant-fungal interaction. Linked plant-fungal invasions can transform communities and ecosystem function, with potential for persistent legacies preventing ecosystem restoration.

Pinus contorta invasions increase wildfire fuel loads and may create a positive feedback with fire.

Invasive plant species that have the potential to alter fire regimes have significant impacts on native ecosystems. Concern that pine invasions in the Southern Hemisphere will increase fire activity and severity and subsequently promote further pine invasion prompted us to examine the potential for feedbacks between Pinus contorta invasions and fire in Patagonia and New Zealand. We determined how fuel loads and fire effects were altered by P. contorta invasion. We also examined post-fire plant communities across invasion gradients at a subset of sites to assess how invasion alters the post-fire vegetation trajectory. We found that fuel loads and soil heating during simulated fire increase with increasing P. contorta invasion age or density at all sites. However, P. contorta density did not always increase post-fire. In the largest fire, P. contorta density only increased significantly post-fire where the pre-fire P. contorta density was above an invasion threshold. Below this threshold, P. contorta did not dominate after fire and plant communities responded to fire in a similar manner as uninvaded communities. The positive feedback observed at high densities is caused by the accumulation of fuel that in turn results in greater soil heating during fires and high P. contorta density post-fire. Therefore, a positive feedback may form between P. contorta invasions and fire, but only above an invasion density threshold. These results suggest that management of pine invasions before they reach the invasion density threshold is important for reducing fire risk and preventing a transition to an alternate ecosystem state dominated by pines and novel understory plant communities.

Ectomycorrhizal fungal communities coinvading with Pinaceae host plants in Argentina: Gringos bajo el bosque.

Coinvasive ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi allow Pinaceae species to invade regions otherwise lacking compatible symbionts, but ECM fungal communities permitting Pinaceae invasions are poorly understood. In the context of Pinaceae invasions on Isla Victoria, Nahuel Huapi National Park, Argentina, we asked: what ECM fungi are coinvading with Pinaceae hosts on Isla Victoria; are some ECM fungal species or genera more prone to invade than others; and are all ECM fungal species that associate with Northern Hemisphere hosts also nonnative, or are some native fungi compatible with nonnative plants? We sampled ECMs from 226 Pinaceae host plant individuals, both planted individuals and recruits, growing inside and invading from plantations. We used molecular techniques to examine ECM fungal communities associating with these trees. A distinctive subset of the ECM fungal community predominated far from plantations, indicating differences between highly invasive and less invasive ECM fungi. Some fungal invaders reported here have been detected in other locations around the world, suggesting strong invasion potential. Fungi that were frequently detected far from plantations are often found in early-successional sites in the native range, while fungi identified as late-successional species in the native range are rarely found far from plantations, suggesting a means for predicting potential fungal coinvaders.

Negative, neutral, and positive interactions among nonnative plants: patterns, processes, and management implications.

The movement of species is one of the most pervasive forms of global change, and few ecosystems remain uninvaded by nonnative species. Studying species interactions is crucial for understanding their distribution and abundance, particularly for nonnative species because interactions may influence the probability of invasion and consequent ecological impact. Interactions among nonnatives are relatively understudied, though the likelihood of nonnative species co-occurrence is high. We quantify and describe the types of interactions among nonnative plants and determine what factors affect interaction outcomes for ecosystems globally. We reviewed 65 studies comprising 201 observations and recorded the interaction type, traits of the interacting species, and study characteristics. We conducted a census of interaction types and a meta-analysis of experiments that tested nonnative competition intensity. Both methods showed that negative and neutral interactions prevailed, and a number of studies reported that the removal of a dominant nonnative led to competitive release of other nonnatives. Positive interactions were less frequently reported and positive mean effect sizes were rare, but the plant characteristics nitrogen fixation, life cycle (annual or perennial), and functional group significantly influenced positive interactions. Positive interactions were three times more frequent when a neighboring nonnative was a nitrogen fixer and 3.5 times lower when a neighboring nonnative was an annual. Woody plants were two or four times more likely to have positive interactions relative to grasses or herbs, respectively. The prevalence of negative interactions suggests that managers should prepare for reinvasion of sites when treating dominant nonnatives. Though positive interactions were infrequent, managers may be able to anticipate positive interactions among nonnatives based upon traits of the co-occurring invaders. Predicting positive nonnative interactions is an important tool for determining habitat susceptibility to a particular invasion and for prioritizing management of nonnatives with a higher likelihood of positive interactions.

Including a diverse set of voices to address biological invasions.

Inclusivity is fundamental to progress in understanding and addressing the global phenomena of biological invasions because inclusivity fosters a breadth of perspectives, knowledge, and solutions. Here, we report on how the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assessment on invasive alien species (IAS) prioritized inclusivity, the benefits of this approach, and the remaining challenges.

Curbing the major and growing threats from invasive alien species is urgent and achievable.

Although invasive alien species have long been recognized as a major threat to nature and people, until now there has been no comprehensive global review of the status, trends, drivers, impacts, management and governance challenges of biological invasions. The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and Their Control (hereafter 'IPBES invasive alien species assessment') drew on more than 13,000 scientific publications and reports in 15 languages as well as Indigenous and local knowledge on all taxa, ecosystems and regions across the globe. Therefore, it provides unequivocal evidence of the major and growing threat of invasive alien species alongside ambitious but realistic approaches to manage biological invasions. The extent of the threat and impacts has been recognized by the 143 member states of IPBES who approved the summary for policymakers of this assessment. Here, the authors of the IPBES assessment outline the main findings of the IPBES invasive alien species assessment and highlight the urgency to act now.

Plant invasion shifts soil microbiome and physico-chemical attributes along an elevational gradient in Kashmir Himalaya.

Soil microbial communities, being situated at the interface of aboveground plant and belowground soil systems, can play a pivotal role in determining ecosystem response to the drivers of global environmental change, including invasive species. In mountains, invasive plants occurring along elevational gradients offer a unique natural experimental system to investigate the impact of invasions in determining patterns and relationships of soil microbial diversity and nutrient pools at much shorter spatial distances. Here, we studied the impact of a global plant invader, Leucanthemum vulgare, on the diversity of soil microbiome and physico-chemical attributes along an elevational gradient (1760-2880 m) in Kashmir Himalaya. We used Illumina MiSeq platform to characterize the soil microbiome in pair-wise invaded and uninvaded plots at four different sites along the gradient. We found a total of 1959 bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTUs) belonging to 152 species, and a relatively higher number of 2475 fungal OTUs belonging to 589 species. The α-diversity of soil microbiome showed a gradual increase from low to high elevation and differed significantly (p < 0.05) between the invaded and uninvaded plots. The ß-diversity revealed distinct microbiome clustering among the sampling sites. Plant invasion also altered soil physico-chemical attributes along the elevational gradient. Overall, our findings suggest that the L. vulgare-induced shifts in soil microbiome and nutrient pools may be a belowground self-reinforced mechanism to facilitate its successful invasion along the elevational gradient. Our study provides new insights into invasive plant-microbe relationships with wide implications for climate warming-driven elevational range shifts in mountains.