Data-driven longitudinal characterization of neonatal health and morbidity.

Although prematurity is the single largest cause of death in children under 5 years of age, the current definition of prematurity, based on gestational age, lacks the precision needed for guiding care decisions. Here, we propose a longitudinal risk assessment for adverse neonatal outcomes in newborns based on a deep learning model that uses electronic health records (EHRs) to predict a wide range of outcomes over a period starting shortly before conception and ending months after birth. By linking the EHRs of the Lucile Packard Children's Hospital and the Stanford Healthcare Adult Hospital, we developed a cohort of 22,104 mother-newborn dyads delivered between 2014 and 2018. Maternal and newborn EHRs were extracted and used to train a multi-input multitask deep learning model, featuring a long short-term memory neural network, to predict 24 different neonatal outcomes. An additional cohort of 10,250 mother-newborn dyads delivered at the same Stanford Hospitals from 2019 to September 2020 was used to validate the model. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve at delivery exceeded 0.9 for 10 of the 24 neonatal outcomes considered and were between 0.8 and 0.9 for 7 additional outcomes. Moreover, comprehensive association analysis identified multiple known associations between various maternal and neonatal features and specific neonatal outcomes. This study used linked EHRs from more than 30,000 mother-newborn dyads and would serve as a resource for the investigation and prediction of neonatal outcomes. An interactive website is available for independent investigators to leverage this unique dataset: https://maternal-child-health-associations.shinyapps.io/shiny_app/.

Large-scale correlation network construction for unraveling the coordination of complex biological systems.

Advanced measurement and data storage technologies have enabled high-dimensional profiling of complex biological systems. For this, modern multiomics studies regularly produce datasets with hundreds of thousands of measurements per sample, enabling a new era of precision medicine. Correlation analysis is an important first step to gain deeper insights into the coordination and underlying processes of such complex systems. However, the construction of large correlation networks in modern high-dimensional datasets remains a major computational challenge owing to rapidly growing runtime and memory requirements. Here we address this challenge by introducing CorALS (Correlation Analysis of Large-scale (biological) Systems), an open-source framework for the construction and analysis of large-scale parametric as well as non-parametric correlation networks for high-dimensional biological data. It features off-the-shelf algorithms suitable for both personal and high-performance computers, enabling workflows and downstream analysis approaches. We illustrate the broad scope and potential of CorALS by exploring perspectives on complex biological processes in large-scale multiomics and single-cell studies.

Revealing the impact of lifestyle stressors on the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes with multitask machine learning.

Psychosocial and stress-related factors (PSFs), defined as internal or external stimuli that induce biological changes, are potentially modifiable factors and accessible targets for interventions that are associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs). Although individual APOs have been shown to be connected to PSFs, they are biologically interconnected, relatively infrequent, and therefore challenging to model. In this context, multi-task machine learning (MML) is an ideal tool for exploring the interconnectedness of APOs on the one hand and building on joint combinatorial outcomes to increase predictive power on the other hand. Additionally, by integrating single cell immunological profiling of underlying biological processes, the effects of stress-based therapeutics may be measurable, facilitating the development of precision medicine approaches. Objectives: The primary objectives were to jointly model multiple APOs and their connection to stress early in pregnancy, and to explore the underlying biology to guide development of accessible and measurable interventions. Materials and Methods: In a prospective cohort study, PSFs were assessed during the first trimester with an extensive self-filled questionnaire for 200 women. We used MML to simultaneously model, and predict APOs (severe preeclampsia, superimposed preeclampsia, gestational diabetes and early gestational age) as well as several risk factors (BMI, diabetes, hypertension) for these patients based on PSFs. Strongly interrelated stressors were categorized to identify potential therapeutic targets. Furthermore, for a subset of 14 women, we modeled the connection of PSFs to the maternal immune system to APOs by building corresponding ML models based on an extensive single cell immune dataset generated by mass cytometry time of flight (CyTOF). Results: Jointly modeling APOs in a MML setting significantly increased modeling capabilities and yielded a highly predictive integrated model of APOs underscoring their interconnectedness. Most APOs were associated with mental health, life stress, and perceived health risks. Biologically, stressors were associated with specific immune characteristics revolving around CD4/CD8 T cells. Immune characteristics predicted based on stress were in turn found to be associated with APOs. Conclusions: Elucidating connections among stress, multiple APOs simultaneously, and immune characteristics has the potential to facilitate the implementation of ML-based, individualized, integrative models of pregnancy in clinical decision making. The modifiable nature of stressors may enable the development of accessible interventions, with success tracked through immune characteristics.

Corrigendum to: Machine learning-based prediction of health outcomes in pediatric organ transplantation recipients.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/jamiaopen/ooab008.].

Machine learning-based prediction of health outcomes in pediatric organ transplantation recipients.

OBJECTIVES: Prediction of post-transplant health outcomes and identification of key factors remain important issues for pediatric transplant teams and researchers. Outcomes research has generally relied on general linear modeling or similar techniques offering limited predictive validity. Thus far, data-driven modeling and machine learning (ML) approaches have had limited application and success in pediatric transplant outcomes research. The purpose of the current study was to examine ML models predicting post-transplant hospitalization in a sample of pediatric kidney, liver, and heart transplant recipients from a large solid organ transplant program. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Various logistic regression, naive Bayes, support vector machine, and deep learning (DL) methods were used to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year post-transplant hospitalization using patient and administrative data from a large pediatric organ transplant center. RESULTS: DL models generally outperformed traditional ML models across organtypes and prediction windows with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values ranging from 0.750 to 0.851. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) were used to increase the interpretability of DL model results. Various medical, patient, and social variables were identified as salient predictors across organ types. DISCUSSION: Results demonstrate the utility of DL modeling for health outcome prediction with pediatric patients, and its use represents an important development in the prediction of post-transplant outcomes in pediatric transplantation compared to prior research. CONCLUSION: Results point to DL models as potentially useful tools in decision-support systems assisting physicians and transplant teams in identifying patients at a greater risk for poor post-transplant outcomes.

Assessing the Impact of Imputation on the Interpretations of Prediction Models: A Case Study on Mortality Prediction for Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction.

Acute myocardial infarction poses significant health risks and financial burden on healthcare and families. Prediction of mortality risk among AM! patients using rich electronic health record (EHR) data can potentially save lives and healthcare costs. Nevertheless, EHR-based prediction models usually use a missing data imputation method without considering its impact on the performance and interpretability of the model, hampering its real-world applicability in the healthcare setting. This study examines the impact of different methods for imputing missing values in EHR data on both the performance and the interpretations of predictive models. Our results showed that a small standard deviation in root mean squared error across different runs of an imputation method does not necessarily imply a small standard deviation in the prediction models' performance and interpretation. We also showed that the level of missingness and the imputation method used can have a significant impact on the interpretation of the models.

DeepConsensus: Consensus-based Interpretable Deep Neural Networks with Application to Mortality Prediction.

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success in various challenging tasks. However, the black-box nature of such networks is not acceptable to critical applications, such as healthcare. In particular, the existence of adversarial examples and their overgeneralization to irrelevant, out-of-distribution inputs with high confidence makes it difficult, if not impossible, to explain decisions by such networks. In this paper, we analyze the underlying mechanism of generalization of deep neural networks and propose an (n, k) consensus algorithm which is insensitive to adversarial examples and can reliably reject out-of-distribution samples. Furthermore, the consensus algorithm is able to improve classification accuracy by using multiple trained deep neural networks. To handle the complexity of deep neural networks, we cluster linear approximations of individual models and identify highly correlated clusters among different models to capture feature importance robustly, resulting in improved interpretability. Motivated by the importance of building accurate and interpretable prediction models for healthcare, our experimental results on an ICU dataset show the effectiveness of our algorithm in enhancing both the prediction accuracy and the interpretability of deep neural network models on one-year patient mortality prediction. In particular, while the proposed method maintains similar interpretability as conventional shallow models such as logistic regression, it improves the prediction accuracy significantly.

Assessing the Use and Perception of Dietary Supplements Among Obese Patients with National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Complementary alternative medicine, especially dietary supplements (DS), has gained increasing popularity for weight loss due to its availability without prescription, price, and ease of use. Besides weight loss, there are various perceived, potential benefits linked to DS use. However, health consumers with limited health literacy may not adequately know the benefits and risk of overdose for DS. In this project, we aim to gain a better understanding of the use of DS products among obese people as well as the perceived benefits of these products. We identified obese adults after combining the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data collected from 2003 to 2014. We found that there is a knowledge gap between the reported benefits of major DS by obese adults and the existing DS knowledge base and label database. This gap may inform the design of patient education material on DS usage in the future.

Explainable artificial intelligence models using real-world electronic health record data: a systematic scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a systematic scoping review of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) models that use real-world electronic health record data, categorize these techniques according to different biomedical applications, identify gaps of current studies, and suggest future research directions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, IEEE Xplore, and the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) Digital Library to identify relevant papers published between January 1, 2009 and May 1, 2019. We summarized these studies based on the year of publication, prediction tasks, machine learning algorithm, dataset(s) used to build the models, the scope, category, and evaluation of the XAI methods. We further assessed the reproducibility of the studies in terms of the availability of data and code and discussed open issues and challenges. RESULTS: Forty-two articles were included in this review. We reported the research trend and most-studied diseases. We grouped XAI methods into 5 categories: knowledge distillation and rule extraction (N = 13), intrinsically interpretable models (N = 9), data dimensionality reduction (N = 8), attention mechanism (N = 7), and feature interaction and importance (N = 5). DISCUSSION: XAI evaluation is an open issue that requires a deeper focus in the case of medical applications. We also discuss the importance of reproducibility of research work in this field, as well as the challenges and opportunities of XAI from 2 medical professionals' point of view. CONCLUSION: Based on our review, we found that XAI evaluation in medicine has not been adequately and formally practiced. Reproducibility remains a critical concern. Ample opportunities exist to advance XAI research in medicine.

Building Computational Models to Predict One-Year Mortality in ICU Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction and Post Myocardial Infarction Syndrome.

Heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States. Compared with risk assessment guidelines that require manual calculation of scores, machine learning-based prediction for disease outcomes such as mortality can be utilized to save time and improve prediction accuracy. This study built and evaluated various machine learning models to predict one-year mortality in patients diagnosed with acute myocardial infarction or post myocardial infarction syndrome in the MIMIC-III database. The results of the best performing shallow prediction models were compared to a deep feedforward neural network (Deep FNN) with back propagation. We included a cohort of 5436 admissions. Six datasets were developed and compared. The models applying Logistic Model Trees (LMT) and Simple Logistic algorithms to the combined dataset resulted in the highest prediction accuracy at 85.12% and the highest AUC at .901. In addition, other factors were observed to have an impact on outcomes as well.

Enhancing Prediction Models for One-Year Mortality in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction and Post Myocardial Infarction Syndrome.

Predicting the risk of mortality for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) using electronic health records (EHRs) data can help identify risky patients who might need more tailored care. In our previous work, we built computational models to predict one-year mortality of patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with AMI or post myocardial infarction syndrome. Our prior work only used the structured clinical data from MIMIC-III, a publicly available ICU clinical database. In this study, we enhanced our work by adding the word embedding features from free-text discharge summaries. Using a richer set of features resulted in significant improvement in the performance of our deep learning models. The average accuracy of our deep learning models was 92.89% and the average F-measure was 0.928. We further reported the impact of different combinations of features extracted from structured and/or unstructured data on the performance of the deep learning models.

Exploring the Discrepancies in Actual and Perceived Benefits of Dietary Supplements Among Obese Patients.

Dietary supplements (DSs) have gained increased popularity for weight loss due to its availability without prescription, relatively low price, and ease of use. Consumers with limited health literacy may not adequately know the benefits and risks associated with DSs. In this project, we found a knowledge gap between reported benefits of major DSs by adults with obesity in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2014 and those reported in existing DS knowledge databases.