Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology.

During recent decades, pathogens that originated in bats have become an increasing public health concern. A major challenge is to identify how those pathogens spill over into human populations to generate a pandemic threat1. Many correlational studies associate spillover with changes in land use or other anthropogenic stressors2,3, although the mechanisms underlying the observed correlations have not been identified4. One limitation is the lack of spatially and temporally explicit data on multiple spillovers, and on the connections among spillovers, reservoir host ecology and behaviour and viral dynamics. We present 25 years of data on land-use change, bat behaviour and spillover of Hendra virus from Pteropodid bats to horses in subtropical Australia. These data show that bats are responding to environmental change by persistently adopting behaviours that were previously transient responses to nutritional stress. Interactions between land-use change and climate now lead to persistent bat residency in agricultural areas, where periodic food shortages drive clusters of spillovers. Pulses of winter flowering of trees in remnant forests appeared to prevent spillover. We developed integrative Bayesian network models based on these phenomena that accurately predicted the presence or absence of clusters of spillovers in each of the 25 years. Our long-term study identifies the mechanistic connections between habitat loss, climate and increased spillover risk. It provides a framework for examining causes of bat virus spillover and for developing ecological countermeasures to prevent pandemics.

Ecological conditions predict the intensity of Hendra virus excretion over space and time from bat reservoir hosts.

The ecological conditions experienced by wildlife reservoirs affect infection dynamics and thus the distribution of pathogen excreted into the environment. This spatial and temporal distribution of shed pathogen has been hypothesised to shape risks of zoonotic spillover. However, few systems have data on both long-term ecological conditions and pathogen excretion to advance mechanistic understanding and test environmental drivers of spillover risk. We here analyse three years of Hendra virus data from nine Australian flying fox roosts with covariates derived from long-term studies of bat ecology. We show that the magnitude of winter pulses of viral excretion, previously considered idiosyncratic, are most pronounced after recent food shortages and in bat populations displaced to novel habitats. We further show that cumulative pathogen excretion over time is shaped by bat ecology and positively predicts spillover frequency. Our work emphasises the role of reservoir host ecology in shaping pathogen excretion and provides a new approach to estimate spillover risk.

Novel Hendra Virus Variant Circulating in Black Flying Foxes and Grey-Headed Flying Foxes, Australia.

A novel Hendra virus variant, genotype 2, was recently discovered in a horse that died after acute illness and in Pteropus flying fox tissues in Australia. We detected the variant in flying fox urine, the pathway relevant for spillover, supporting an expanded geographic range of Hendra virus risk to horses and humans.

Novel Hendra Virus Variant Detected by Sentinel Surveillance of Horses in Australia.

We identified and isolated a novel Hendra virus (HeV) variant not detected by routine testing from a horse in Queensland, Australia, that died from acute illness with signs consistent with HeV infection. Using whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis, we determined the variant had ≈83% nt identity with prototypic HeV. In silico and in vitro comparisons of the receptor-binding protein with prototypic HeV support that the human monoclonal antibody m102.4 used for postexposure prophylaxis and current equine vaccine will be effective against this variant. An updated quantitative PCR developed for routine surveillance resulted in subsequent case detection. Genetic sequence consistency with virus detected in grey-headed flying foxes suggests the variant circulates at least among this species. Studies are needed to determine infection kinetics, pathogenicity, reservoir-species associations, viral-host coevolution, and spillover dynamics for this virus. Surveillance and biosecurity practices should be updated to acknowledge HeV spillover risk across all regions frequented by flying foxes.

Possibility for reverse zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to free-ranging wildlife: A case study of bats.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (ß-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of ß-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of ß-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations.

Counterintuitive scaling between population abundance and local density: Implications for modelling transmission of infectious diseases in bat populations.

Models of host-pathogen interactions help to explain infection dynamics in wildlife populations and to predict and mitigate the risk of zoonotic spillover. Insights from models inherently depend on the way contacts between hosts are modelled, and crucially, how transmission scales with animal density. Bats are important reservoirs of zoonotic disease and are among the most gregarious of all mammals. Their population structures can be highly heterogeneous, underpinned by ecological processes across different scales, complicating assumptions regarding the nature of contacts and transmission. Although models commonly parameterise transmission using metrics of total abundance, whether this is an ecologically representative approximation of host-pathogen interactions is not routinely evaluated. We collected a 13-month dataset of tree-roosting Pteropus spp. from 2,522 spatially referenced trees across eight roosts to empirically evaluate the relationship between total roost abundance and tree-level measures of abundance and density-the scale most likely to be relevant for virus transmission. We also evaluate whether roost features at different scales (roost level, subplot level, tree level) are predictive of these local density dynamics. Roost-level features were not representative of tree-level abundance (bats per tree) or tree-level density (bats per m2 or m3 ), with roost-level models explaining minimal variation in tree-level measures. Total roost abundance itself was either not a significant predictor (tree-level 3D density) or only weakly predictive (tree-level abundance). This indicates that basic measures, such as total abundance of bats in a roost, may not provide adequate approximations for population dynamics at scales relevant for transmission, and that alternative measures are needed to compare transmission potential between roosts. From the best candidate models, the strongest predictor of local population structure was tree density within roosts, where roosts with low tree density had a higher abundance but lower density of bats (more spacing between bats) per tree. Together, these data highlight unpredictable and counterintuitive relationships between total abundance and local density. More nuanced modelling of transmission, spread and spillover from bats likely requires alternative approaches to integrating contact structure in host-pathogen models, rather than simply modifying the transmission function.

An argument for pandemic risk management using a multidisciplinary One Health approach to governance: an Australian case study.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant global impact. However, COVID-19 is just one of several high-impact infectious diseases that emerged from wildlife and are linked to the human relationship with nature. The rate of emergence of new zoonoses (diseases of animal origin) is increasing, driven by human-induced environmental changes that threaten biodiversity on a global scale. This increase is directly linked to environmental drivers including biodiversity loss, climate change and unsustainable resource extraction. Australia is a biodiversity hotspot and is subject to sustained and significant environmental change, increasing the risk of it being a location for pandemic origin. Moreover, the global integration of markets means that consumption trends in Australia contributes to the risk of disease spill-over in our regional neighbours in Asia-Pacific, and beyond. Despite the clear causal link between anthropogenic pressures on the environment and increasing pandemic risks, Australia's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, like most of the world, has centred largely on public health strategies, with a clear focus on reactive management. Yet, the span of expertise and evidence relevant to the governance of pandemic risk management is much wider than public health and epidemiology. It involves animal/wildlife health, biosecurity, conservation sciences, social sciences, behavioural psychology, law, policy and economic analyses to name just a few.The authors are a team of multidisciplinary practitioners and researchers who have worked together to analyse, synthesise, and harmonise the links between pandemic risk management approaches and issues in different disciplines to provide a holistic overview of current practice, and conclude the need for reform in Australia. We discuss the adoption of a comprehensive and interdisciplinary 'One Health' approach to pandemic risk management in Australia. A key goal of the One Health approach is to be proactive in countering threats of emerging infectious diseases and zoonoses through a recognition of the interdependence between human, animal, and environmental health. Developing ways to implement a One Health approach to pandemic prevention would not only reduce the risk of future pandemics emerging in or entering Australia, but also provide a model for prevention strategies around the world.

Spatial dynamics of pathogen transmission in communally roosting species: Impacts of changing habitats on bat-virus dynamics.

The spatial organization of populations determines their pathogen dynamics. This is particularly important for communally roosting species, whose aggregations are often driven by the spatial structure of their environment. We develop a spatially explicit model for virus transmission within roosts of Australian tree-dwelling bats (Pteropus spp.), parameterized to reflect Hendra virus. The spatial structure of roosts mirrors three study sites, and viral transmission between groups of bats in trees was modelled as a function of distance between roost trees. Using three levels of tree density to reflect anthropogenic changes in bat habitats, we investigate the potential effects of recent ecological shifts in Australia on the dynamics of zoonotic viruses in reservoir hosts. We show that simulated infection dynamics in spatially structured roosts differ from that of mean-field models for equivalently sized populations, highlighting the importance of spatial structure in disease models of gregarious taxa. Under contrasting scenarios of flying-fox roosting structures, sparse stand structures (with fewer trees but more bats per tree) generate higher probabilities of successful outbreaks, larger and faster epidemics, and shorter virus extinction times, compared to intermediate and dense stand structures with more trees but fewer bats per tree. These observations are consistent with the greater force of infection generated by structured populations with less numerous but larger infected groups, and may flag an increased risk of pathogen spillover from these increasingly abundant roost types. Outputs from our models contribute insights into the spread of viruses in structured animal populations, like communally roosting species, as well as specific insights into Hendra virus infection dynamics and spillover risk in a situation of changing host ecology. These insights will be relevant for modelling other zoonotic viruses in wildlife reservoir hosts in response to habitat modification and changing populations, including coronaviruses like SARS-CoV-2.

Disentangling serology to elucidate henipa- and filovirus transmission in Madagascar fruit bats.

Bats are reservoirs for emerging human pathogens, including Hendra and Nipah henipaviruses and Ebola and Marburg filoviruses. These viruses demonstrate predictable patterns in seasonality and age structure across multiple systems; previous work suggests that they may circulate in Madagascar's endemic fruit bats, which are widely consumed as human food. We aimed to (a) document the extent of henipa- and filovirus exposure among Malagasy fruit bats, (b) explore seasonality in seroprevalence and serostatus in these bat populations and (c) compare mechanistic hypotheses for possible transmission dynamics underlying these data. To this end, we amassed and analysed a unique dataset documenting longitudinal serological henipa- and filovirus dynamics in three Madagascar fruit bat species. We uncovered serological evidence of exposure to Hendra-/Nipah-related henipaviruses in Eidolon dupreanum, Pteropus rufus and Rousettus madagascariensis, to Cedar-related henipaviruses in E. dupreanum and R. madagascariensis and to Ebola-related filoviruses in P. rufus and R. madagascariensis. We demonstrated significant seasonality in population-level seroprevalence and individual serostatus for multiple viruses across these species, linked to the female reproductive calendar. An age-structured subset of the data highlighted evidence of waning maternal antibodies in neonates, increasing seroprevalence in young and decreasing seroprevalence late in life. Comparison of mechanistic epidemiological models fit to these data offered support for transmission hypotheses permitting waning antibodies but retained immunity in adult-age bats. Our findings suggest that bats may seasonally modulate mechanisms of pathogen control, with consequences for population-level transmission. Additionally, we narrow the field of candidate transmission hypotheses by which bats are presumed to host and transmit potentially zoonotic viruses globally.

The Expectations and Challenges of Wildlife Disease Research in the Era of Genomics: Forecasting with a Horizon Scan-like Exercise.

The outbreak and transmission of disease-causing pathogens are contributing to the unprecedented rate of biodiversity decline. Recent advances in genomics have coalesced into powerful tools to monitor, detect, and reconstruct the role of pathogens impacting wildlife populations. Wildlife researchers are thus uniquely positioned to merge ecological and evolutionary studies with genomic technologies to exploit unprecedented "Big Data" tools in disease research; however, many researchers lack the training and expertise required to use these computationally intensive methodologies. To address this disparity, the inaugural "Genomics of Disease in Wildlife" workshop assembled early to mid-career professionals with expertise across scientific disciplines (e.g., genomics, wildlife biology, veterinary sciences, and conservation management) for training in the application of genomic tools to wildlife disease research. A horizon scanning-like exercise, an activity to identify forthcoming trends and challenges, performed by the workshop participants identified and discussed 5 themes considered to be the most pressing to the application of genomics in wildlife disease research: 1) "Improving communication," 2) "Methodological and analytical advancements," 3) "Translation into practice," 4) "Integrating landscape ecology and genomics," and 5) "Emerging new questions." Wide-ranging solutions from the horizon scan were international in scope, itemized both deficiencies and strengths in wildlife genomic initiatives, promoted the use of genomic technologies to unite wildlife and human disease research, and advocated best practices for optimal use of genomic tools in wildlife disease projects. The results offer a glimpse of the potential revolution in human and wildlife disease research possible through multi-disciplinary collaborations at local, regional, and global scales.

'If I do 10-15 normal deliveries in a month I hardly ever sleep at home.' A qualitative study of health providers' reasons for high rates of caesarean deliveries in private sector maternity care in Delhi, India.

BACKGROUND: Although the overall rate of caesarean deliveries in India remains low, rates are higher in private than in public facilities. In a household survey in Delhi, for instance, more than half of women delivering in private facilities reported a caesarean section. Evidence suggests that not all caesarean sections are clinically necessary and may even increase morbidity. We present providers' perspectives of the reasons behind the high rates of caesarean births in private facilities, and possible solutions to counter the trend. METHODS: Fourteen in-depth interviews were conducted with high-end private sector obstetricians and other allied providers in Delhi and its neighbouring cities, Gurgaon and Ghaziabad. RESULTS: Respondents were of the common view that private sector caesarean rates were unreasonably high and perceived time and doctors' convenience as the foremost reasons. Financial incentives had an indirect effect on decision-making. Obstetricians felt that they must maintain high patient loads to be commercially successful. Many alluded to their busy working lives, which made it challenging for them to monitor every delivery individually. Besides fearing for patient safety in these situations, they were fearful of legal action if anything went wrong. A lack of context specific guidelines and inadequate support from junior staff and nurses exacerbated these problems. Maternal demand also played a role, as the consumer-provider relationship in private healthcare incentivised obstetricians to fulfil patient demands for caesarean section. Suggested solutions included more support, from either well-trained midwives and junior staff or using a 'shared practice' model; guidelines introduced by an Indian body; increased regulation within the sector and public disclosure of providers' caesarean rates. CONCLUSIONS: Commercial interests contribute indirectly to high caesarean rates, as solo obstetricians juggle the need to maintain high patient loads with inadequate support staff. Perceptions amongst providers and consumers of caesarean section as the 'safe' option have re-defined caesareans as the new 'normal', even for low-risk deliveries. At the policy level, guidelines and public disclosures, strong initiatives to develop professional midwifery, and increasing public awareness, could bring about a sustainable reduction in the present high rates.

Can survival analyses detect hunting pressure in a highly connected species? Lessons from straw-coloured fruit bats.

Animal behaviour, social structure and population dynamics affect community structure, interspecific interactions, and a species' resilience to harvesting. Building on new life history information for the straw-coloured fruit bat (Eidolon helvum) from multiple localities across Africa, we used survival analyses based on tooth-cementum annuli data to test alternative hypotheses relating to hunting pressure, demography and population connectivity. The estimated annual survival probability across Africa was high (≥ 0.64), but was greatest in colonies with the highest proportion of males. This difference in sex survival, along with age and sex capture biases and out-of-phase breeding across the species' distribution, leads us to hypothesize that E. helvum has a complex social structure. We found no evidence for additive mortality in heavily hunted populations, with most colonies having high survival with constant risk of mortality despite different hunting pressure. Given E. helvum's slow life history strategy, similar survival patterns and rate among colonies suggest that local movement and regional migration may compensate for local excess hunting, but these were also not clearly detected. Our study suggests that spatio-temporal data are necessary to appropriately assess the population dynamics and conservation status of this and other species with similar traits.

Bat flight and zoonotic viruses.

Bats are sources of high viral diversity and high-profile zoonotic viruses worldwide. Although apparently not pathogenic in their reservoir hosts, some viruses from bats severely affect other mammals, including humans. Examples include severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses, Ebola and Marburg viruses, and Nipah and Hendra viruses. Factors underlying high viral diversity in bats are the subject of speculation. We hypothesize that flight, a factor common to all bats but to no other mammals, provides an intensive selective force for coexistence with viral parasites through a daily cycle that elevates metabolism and body temperature analogous to the febrile response in other mammals. On an evolutionary scale, this host-virus interaction might have resulted in the large diversity of zoonotic viruses in bats, possibly through bat viruses adapting to be more tolerant of the fever response and less virulent to their natural hosts.

Antigenic and genetic characterization of a divergent African virus, Ikoma lyssavirus.

In 2009, a novel lyssavirus (subsequently named Ikoma lyssavirus, IKOV) was detected in the brain of an African civet (Civettictis civetta) with clinical rabies in the Serengeti National Park of Tanzania. The degree of nucleotide divergence between the genome of IKOV and those of other lyssaviruses predicted antigenic distinction from, and lack of protection provided by, available rabies vaccines. In addition, the index case was considered likely to be an incidental spillover event, and therefore the true reservoir of IKOV remained to be identified. The advent of sensitive molecular techniques has led to a rapid increase in the discovery of novel viruses. Detecting viral sequence alone, however, only allows for prediction of phenotypic characteristics and not their measurement. In the present study we describe the in vitro and in vivo characterization of IKOV, demonstrating that it is (1) pathogenic by peripheral inoculation in an animal model, (2) antigenically distinct from current rabies vaccine strains and (3) poorly neutralized by sera from humans and animals immunized against rabies. In a laboratory mouse model, no protection was elicited by a licensed rabies vaccine. We also investigated the role of bats as reservoirs of IKOV. We found no evidence for infection among 483 individuals of at least 13 bat species sampled across sites in the Serengeti and Southern Kenya.

Novel, potentially zoonotic paramyxoviruses from the African straw-colored fruit bat Eidolon helvum.

Bats carry a variety of paramyxoviruses that impact human and domestic animal health when spillover occurs. Recent studies have shown a great diversity of paramyxoviruses in an urban-roosting population of straw-colored fruit bats in Ghana. Here, we investigate this further through virus isolation and describe two novel rubulaviruses: Achimota virus 1 (AchPV1) and Achimota virus 2 (AchPV2). The viruses form a phylogenetic cluster with each other and other bat-derived rubulaviruses, such as Tuhoko viruses, Menangle virus, and Tioman virus. We developed AchPV1- and AchPV2-specific serological assays and found evidence of infection with both viruses in Eidolon helvum across sub-Saharan Africa and on islands in the Gulf of Guinea. Longitudinal sampling of E. helvum indicates virus persistence within fruit bat populations and suggests spread of AchPVs via horizontal transmission. We also detected possible serological evidence of human infection with AchPV2 in Ghana and Tanzania. It is likely that clinically significant zoonotic spillover of chiropteran paramyxoviruses could be missed throughout much of Africa where health surveillance and diagnostics are poor and comorbidities, such as infection with HIV or Plasmodium sp., are common.

Ecological countermeasures to prevent pathogen spillover and subsequent pandemics.

Substantial global attention is focused on how to reduce the risk of future pandemics. Reducing this risk requires investment in prevention, preparedness, and response. Although preparedness and response have received significant focus, prevention, especially the prevention of zoonotic spillover, remains largely absent from global conversations. This oversight is due in part to the lack of a clear definition of prevention and lack of guidance on how to achieve it. To address this gap, we elucidate the mechanisms linking environmental change and zoonotic spillover using spillover of viruses from bats as a case study. We identify ecological interventions that can disrupt these spillover mechanisms and propose policy frameworks for their implementation. Recognizing that pandemics originate in ecological systems, we advocate for integrating ecological approaches alongside biomedical approaches in a comprehensive and balanced pandemic prevention strategy.

Viral Co-Infection in Bats: A Systematic Review.

Co-infection is an underappreciated phenomenon in contemporary disease ecology despite its ubiquity and importance in nature. Viruses, and other co-infecting agents, can interact in ways that shape host and agent communities, influence infection dynamics, and drive evolutionary selective pressures. Bats are host to many viruses of zoonotic potential and have drawn increasing attention in their role as wildlife reservoirs for human spillover. However, the role of co-infection in driving viral transmission dynamics within bats is unknown. Here, we systematically review peer-reviewed literature reporting viral co-infections in bats. We show that viral co-infection is common in bats but is often only reported as an incidental finding. Biases identified in our study database related to virus and host species were pre-existing in virus studies of bats generally. Studies largely speculated on the role co-infection plays in viral recombination and few investigated potential drivers or impacts of co-infection. Our results demonstrate that current knowledge of co-infection in bats is an ad hoc by-product of viral discovery efforts, and that future targeted co-infection studies will improve our understanding of the role it plays. Adding to the broader context of co-infection studies in other wildlife species, we anticipate our review will inform future co-infection study design and reporting in bats. Consideration of detection strategy, including potential viral targets, and appropriate analysis methodology will provide more robust results and facilitate further investigation of the role of viral co-infection in bat reservoirs.

Applications of VirScan to broad serological profiling of bat reservoirs for emerging zoonoses.

Introduction: Bats are important providers of ecosystem services such as pollination, seed dispersal, and insect control but also act as natural reservoirs for virulent zoonotic viruses. Bats host multiple viruses that cause life-threatening pathology in other animals and humans but, themselves, experience limited pathological disease from infection. Despite bats' importance as reservoirs for several zoonotic viruses, we know little about the broader viral diversity that they host. Bat virus surveillance efforts are challenged by difficulties of field capture and the limited scope of targeted PCR- or ELISA-based molecular and serological detection. Additionally, virus shedding is often transient, thus also limiting insights gained from nucleic acid testing of field specimens. Phage ImmunoPrecipitation Sequencing (PhIP-Seq), a broad serological tool used previously to comprehensively profile viral exposure history in humans, offers an exciting prospect for viral surveillance efforts in wildlife, including bats. Methods: Here, for the first time, we apply PhIP-Seq technology to bat serum, using a viral peptide library originally designed to simultaneously assay exposures to the entire human virome. Results: Using VirScan, we identified past exposures to 57 viral genera-including betacoronaviruses, henipaviruses, lyssaviruses, and filoviruses-in semi-captive Pteropus alecto and to nine viral genera in captive Eonycteris spelaea. Consistent with results from humans, we find that both total peptide hits (the number of enriched viral peptides in our library) and the corresponding number of inferred past virus exposures in bat hosts were correlated with poor bat body condition scores and increased with age. High and low body condition scores were associated with either seropositive or seronegative status for different viruses, though in general, virus-specific age-seroprevalence curves defied assumptions of lifelong immunizing infection, suggesting that many bat viruses may circulate via complex transmission dynamics. Discussion: Overall, our work emphasizes the utility of applying biomedical tools, like PhIP-Seq, first developed for humans to viral surveillance efforts in wildlife, while highlighting opportunities for taxon-specific improvements.