Spatial analysis of contaminated areas in the Centro de Referência em Saúde do Trabalhador of Osasco region (SP), 2017.

Introduction: According to the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), 33% of Brazilian municipalities have faced problems with areas of contaminated soil. According to Companhia Ambiental do Estado de São Paulo (State of São Paulo Environmental Company), contaminated areas are places where there is demonstrably pollution or contamination. Objective: To identify the areas and municipalities affected by contamination at fuel service stations in the Centro de Referência em Saúde do Trabalhador (Occupational Health Reference Center) of Osasco region in 2017. Methods: Descriptive ecological study, carried out in the Occupational Health Reference Center of Osasco region. Data on contaminated areas were extracted from State of São Paulo Environmental Company and digital maps from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Spatial analysis was carried out of the contamination areas, according to their classification, as well as artesian wells and service stations, using Geographic Information System tools. Results: The highest concentrations of contaminated areas with confirmed risk are found in the municipality of Osasco and headquarters of Occupational Health Reference Center. In the analysis of the Kernel Ratio, the most compromised municipalities were Osasco, Barueri and Taboão da Serra. Conclusions: Municipalities with contaminated areas with confirmed risk also have water extraction from artesian wells, with potential risk of contamination of this water by benzene. Thus, it is necessary to improve inspection and surveillance of areas with environmental liabilities, such as service stations that do not have remediation, in addition to surveillance of exposed workers.

Introdução: De acordo com o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, 33% dos municípios brasileiros têm enfrentado problemas com áreas de solo contaminado. Segundo a Companhia Ambiental do Estado de São Paulo, as áreas contaminadas são locais onde há poluição ou contaminação por substâncias ou resíduos. Objetivo: Identificar as áreas e os municípios afetados por contaminação em postos de serviços de combustível na região do Centro de Referência em Saúde do Trabalhador de Osasco, no estado de São Paulo, em 2017. Métodos: Tratou-se de um estudo descritivo ecológico, realizado na área do Centro de Referência em Saúde do Trabalhador de Osasco. Os dados de áreas contaminadas foram extraídos da Companhia Ambiental do Estado de São Paulo, e os mapas digitais, do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Foi realizada análise espacial das áreas de contaminação segundo a sua classificação, bem como de poços artesianos e postos de combustível, utilizando ferramentas de Sistemas de Informações Geográficas. Resultados: As maiores concentrações de áreas contaminadas com risco confirmado se encontram no município de Osasco, sede do Centro de Referência em Saúde do Trabalhador. Na análise da razão de Kernel, os municípios mais comprometidos foram Osasco, Barueri e Taboão da Serra. Conclusões: Os municípios com áreas contaminadas com risco confirmado possuem extração de água de poços artesianos, com potencial risco de contaminação dessa água por benzeno. Assim, é necessário melhorar a fiscalização e a vigilância das áreas com passivo ambiental, como postos de gasolina.

A spatial case-control study on symptomatic and inapparent primary dengue infections in an endemic city in Brazil.

We conducted a spatial case-control study nested in a dengue incidence cohort to explore the role of the spatial and socioeconomic factors in the proportion of symptomatic (cases) and inapparent primary dengue virus infections (controls). Cohort participants were children and adolescents (2 to 16 years of age) at the beginning of the follow-up. Case definitions were, for symptomatic cases, fever plus a positive lab result for acute dengue (NS1, RT-PCR, ELISA IgM/IgG), and for inapparent infection a positive result for dengue IgG (ELISA) in subjects without symptoms and with a previously negative result at baseline. The covariates included sociodemographic factors, residential location, and socioeconomic context variables of the census tracts of residence of cases and controls. We used principal component analysis to reduce the contextual covariates, with the component values assigned to each one based on their residences. The data were modeled in a Bayesian context, considering the spatial dependence. The final sample consisted of 692 children, 274 cases and 418 controls, from the first year of follow-up (2014-2015). Being male, older age, higher educational level of the head of the family and having a larger number of rooms in the household were associated with a greater chance of presenting dengue symptomatic infection at the individual level. The contextual covariates were not associated with the outcome. Inapparent dengue infection has extensive epidemiological consequences. Relying solely on notifications of symptomatic dengue infections underestimates the number of cases, preserves a silent source of the disease, potentially spreading the virus to unaffected areas.

Intra-urban spatial variability of breast and cervical cancer mortality in the city of São Paulo: analysis of associated factors. / Variabilidade espacial intraurbana da mortalidade por câncer de mama e do colo do útero no município de São Paulo: análise dos fatores associados.

OBJECTIVE: To identify spatial variability of mortality from breast and cervical cancer and to assess factors associated in the city of São Paulo. METHODS: Between 2009 and 2016, 10,124 deaths from breast cancer and 2,116 deaths from cervical cancer were recorded in the Mortality Information System among women aged 20 years and over. The records were geocoded by address of residence and grouped according to Primary Health Care coverage areas. A spatial regression modeling was put together using the Bayesian approach with a Besag-York-Mollié structure to verify the association of deaths with selected indicators. RESULTS: Mortality rates from these types of cancer showed inverse spatial patterns. These variables were associated with breast cancer mortality: travel time between one and two hours to work (RR - relative risk: 0.97; 95%CI - credible interval: 0.93-1.00); women being the head of the household (RR 0.97; 95%CI 0.94-0.99) and deaths from breast cancer in private health institutions (RR 1.04; 95%CI 1.00-1.07). The following variables were associated with mortality from cervical cancer: travel time to work between half an hour and one hour (RR 0.92; 95%CI 0.87-0.98); per capita household income of up to 3 minimum wages (RR 1.27; 95%CI 1.18-1.37) and ratio of children under one year of age related to the female population aged 15 to 49 years (RR 1.09; 95%CI 1.01-1.18). CONCLUSION: The predicted RR for mortality from these cancers were calculated and associated with the socioeconomic conditions of the areas covered.

OBJETIVO: Identificar a variabilidade espacial da mortalidade por câncer de mama e colo do útero e avaliar fatores associados à mortalidade por esses cânceres no município de São Paulo. MÉTODOS: Entre 2009 e 2016 foram registrados, no Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade, 10.124 óbitos por câncer de mama e 2.116 óbitos por câncer do colo do útero em mulheres com 20 anos e mais. Os registros foram geocodificados por endereço de residência e agregados segundo território adstrito. Foram realizadas modelagens de regressão espacial utilizando-se a abordagem bayesiana com estrutura de Besag-York-Mollié para verificar a associação dos óbitos com indicadores selecionados. RESULTADOS: As taxas de mortalidade por esses cânceres apresentaram padrões espaciais inversos. As variáveis associadas à mortalidade por câncer de mama foram: tempo de deslocamento para o trabalho entre uma e duas horas (risco relativo ­ RR 0,97; intervalo de credibilidade ­ IC95% 0,93­1,00); mulheres responsáveis pelo domicílio (RR 0,97; IC95% 0,94­0,99) e óbitos por câncer de mama ocorridos em estabelecimentos privados (RR 1,04; IC95% 1,00­1,07). À mortalidade por câncer do colo do útero, estiveram associados: tempo de deslocamento para o trabalho entre meia e uma hora (RR 0,92; IC95% 0,87­0,98); rendimento domiciliar até três salários-mínimos (RR 1,27; IC95% 1,18­1,37); e razão de menores de um ano em relação à população feminina de 15 a 49 anos (RR 1,09; IC95% 1,01­1,18). CONCLUSÃO: Foram calculados os RR preditos para a mortalidade por esses cânceres, que estiveram associados às condições socioeconômicas das áreas de abrangência.

Spatial, spatio-temporal, and origin-destination flow analyses of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome hospitalized for COVID-19 in Southeastern Brazil, 2020-2021.

Brazil experienced one of the fastest increasing numbers of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases worldwide. The Sao Paulo State (SPS) reported a high incidence, particularly in Sao Paulo municipality. This study aimed to identify clusters of incidence and mortality of hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome for COVID-19 in the SPS, in 2020-2021, and describe the origin flow pattern of the cases. Cases and mortality risk area clusters were identified through different analyses (spatial clusters, spatio-temporal clusters, and spatial variation in temporal trends) by weighting areas. Ripley's K12-function verified the spatial dependence between the cases and infrastructure. There were 517,935 reported cases, with 152,128 cases resulting in death. Of the 470,441 patients hospitalized and residing in the SPS, 357,526 remained in the original municipality, while 112,915 did not. Cases and death clusters were identified in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR) and Baixada Santista region in the first study period, and in the SPMR and the Campinas, Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Barretos, and Sorocaba municipalities during the second period. We highlight the priority areas for control and surveillance actions for COVID-19, which could lead to better outcomes in future outbreaks.

Thinking out of the box: revisiting health surveillance based on medical records.

Despite the considerable advances in the last years, the health information systems for health surveillance still need to overcome some critical issues so that epidemic detection can be performed in real time. For instance, despite the efforts of the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) to make COVID-19 data available during the pandemic, delays due to data entry and data availability posed an additional threat to disease monitoring. Here, we propose a complementary approach by using electronic medical records (EMRs) data collected in real time to generate a system to enable insights from the local health surveillance system personnel. As a proof of concept, we assessed data from São Caetano do Sul City (SCS), São Paulo, Brazil. We used the "fever" term as a sentinel event. Regular expression techniques were applied to detect febrile diseases. Other specific terms such as "malaria," "dengue," "Zika," or any infectious disease were included in the dictionary and mapped to "fever." Additionally, after "tokenizing," we assessed the frequencies of most mentioned terms when fever was also mentioned in the patient complaint. The findings allowed us to detect the overlapping outbreaks of both COVID-19 Omicron BA.1 subvariant and Influenza A virus, which were confirmed by our team by analyzing data from private laboratories and another COVID-19 public monitoring system. Timely information generated from EMRs will be a very important tool to the decision-making process as well as research in epidemiology. Quality and security on the data produced is of paramount importance to allow the use by health surveillance systems.

Pink October and mammograms: when health communication misses the target. / Outubro Rosa e mamografias: quando a comunicação em saúde erra o alvo.

Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed type of cancer and is the leading cause of death from cancer in the female population. Screening mammograms and early treatment are the most frequently used means to attempt to reduce this mortality and are promoted during Pink October, an annual awareness-raising campaign. However, recent studies have correlated the increase in screening with higher morbidity and mortality, due to overdiagnosis and overtreatment. The current study assessed searches related to breast cancer and mammogram in Google Trends from 2004 to 2019 in terms of trend, seasonality, and distribution in Brazilian states. The study also evaluatedH the correlation between the number of searches in Google Trends and the number of screening mammograms. The two series showed a seasonal pattern with peaks in October, and there was an excess in tests performed outside the recommended age bracket. Pink October transmitted and popularized health information and induced behaviors related to this information, which are three desirable aspects in health communication and education. However, the campaign also generated an excess in screening mammograms and did not encourage autonomy and free and informed consent. Pink October revealed both the potential of mass communication in health and the need for messages to be aligned with the best available scientific evidence.

O câncer de mama é o tipo de câncer mais diagnosticado e a principal causa de morte por câncer na população feminina. As mamografias de rastreamento e o tratamento precoce são geralmente os meios mais utilizados na tentativa de reduzir essa mortalidade e são incentivados no Outubro Rosa, uma campanha de divulgação anual. Contudo, estudos recentes têm relacionado o aumento do rastreamento com uma maior morbimortalidade em razão do sobrediagnóstico e do sobretratamento. No presente estudo, avaliaram-se as buscas relativas ao câncer de mama e à mamografia no Google Trends, entre 2004 e 2019, em termos da tendência, da sazonalidade e da distribuição nas Unidades Federativas brasileiras. Avaliou-se também a correlação entre a quantidade de buscas no Google Trends e a quantidade de exames de rastreamento mamográfico. As duas séries tiveram um padrão sazonal com picos em outubro, e houve excesso de exames realizados fora da faixa etária recomendada. O Outubro Rosa transmitiu informações de saúde, as popularizou e induziu comportamentos relativos a informações transmitidas; três aspectos desejáveis na comunicação e na educação em saúde. Porém, gerou um excesso de mamografias de rastreamento e não incentivou a autonomia e o consentimento livre e esclarecido. O Outubro Rosa mostrou o potencial da comunicação em saúde para massas e a necessidade de que as mensagens sejam alinhadas com as melhores evidências científicas.

El cáncer de mama es el tipo de cáncer más diagnosticado y la principal causa de muerte por cáncer en la población femenina. Las mamografías de rastreo y el tratamiento precoz son generalmente los medios más utilizados en la tentativa de reducir esa mortalidad, y son incentivados en el Octubre Rosa, una campaña de divulgación anual. No obstante, estudios recientes han relacionado el aumento del rastreo con una mayor morbimortalidad, debido al sobrediagnóstico y al sobretratamiento. En el presente estudio se evaluaron las búsquedas relativas al cáncer de mama, y a la mamografía en Google Trends entre 2004 y 2019, en términos de tendencia, de estacionalidad y de su distribución en las Unidades Federativas brasileñas. Se evaluó también la correlación entre la cantidad de búsquedas en Google Trends y la cantidad de exámenes de rastreo mamográfico. Las dos series tuvieron un patrón estacional con picos en octubre, y hubo un exceso de exámenes realizados fuera de la franja etaria recomendada. Octubre Rosa transmitió información de salud, la popularizó e indujo a comportamientos relacionados con la información transmitida; tres aspectos deseables en la comunicación y educación en salud. Sin embargo, generó un exceso de mamografías de rastreo y no incentivó la autonomía y el consentimiento libre e informado. Octubre Rosa mostró el potencial de la comunicación en salud para las masas y la necesidad de que los mensajes estén alineados con mejores evidencias científicas.

Prevalence evolution of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the city of São Paulo, 2020-2021.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the evolution of the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection among residents aged 18 years or over in the municipality of São Paulo. METHODS: This is a population-based household survey conducted every 15 days, between June and September 2020, and January and February 2021. In total, the study comprised 11 phases. The presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 was identified in venous blood using a lateral flow test, Wondfo Biotech. In the last phase, the researchers combined it with an immunoenzymatic test, Euroimmun. The participants also answered a semi-structured questionnaire on sociodemographic and economic factors, and on social distancing measures. Prevalence estimates and the 95% confidence interval were estimated according to regions, Human Development Index, sex, age group, ethnicity, education, income, and variables associated with risk or prevention of infection. To compare the frequencies among the categories of each variable, the chi-square test with Rao-Scott correction was used, considering a significance level of 5%. RESULTS: In total, 23,397 individuals were interviewed and had their samples collected. The estimated prevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 ranged from 9.7% (95%CI: 7.9-11.8%) to 25.0% (95%CI: 21.7-28.7). The prevalence of individuals with antibodies against the virus was higher among black and brown people, people with lower schooling and income, and among residents of regions with lower Human Development Index. The lowest prevalences were associated with recommended measures of disease protection. The proportion of asymptomatic infection was 45.1%. CONCLUSION: The estimated prevalence of the infection was lower than the cumulative incidence variation, except for the last phase of the study. The differences in prevalence estimates observed among subpopulations showed social inequality as a risk of infection. The lower prevalence observed among those who could follow prevention measures reinforce the need to maintain social distancing measures as a way to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection.

AIDS in men in the city of São Paulo, 1980-2012: spatial and space-time analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To identify spatial and space-time clusters with high incidence rates of AIDS in men living in the city of São Paulo since the first case of the disease in 1980. METHODS: HIV/AIDS notifications were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (57,440 men) between January 1980 and June 2012. The cases were geocoded by residence address; then analyses of purely spatial, space-time and spatial variation in temporal trends were performed for three sets of data: total cases of AIDS in men aged 13 years or older, men aged 50 years or older, and deaths from AIDS. RESULTS: It was possible to geocode a significant proportion of AIDS cases (93.7%). In the purely spatial scanning analysis, considering the entire period evaluated, the AIDS epidemic in men presented an important spatial concentration in the Center and in contiguous areas of the North, Southeast and West regions of the municipality, regardless of age group and evolution to death (relative risks between 1.22 and 5.90). Considering space and time simultaneously, several clusters were found, spread throughout all regions of the municipality (relative risks between 1.44 and 8.61). In the analysis of spatial variation in temporal trends, the clusters in the most peripheral regions presented a higher annual percentage increase in disease rates (up to 7.58%), denoting the tendency of "peripherization" of the epidemic in men in the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: This study allowed the detection of geographic clusters of high risk for AIDS in men, pointing to priority areas in the municipality, both for programmatic actions and to guide other studies.

TB-HIV co-infection: spatial and temporal distribution in the largest Brazilian metropolis.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the spatial and temporal distribution of TB-HIV co-infection, as well as the profile of the characteristics of the co-infected population in the municipality of São Paulo. METHODS: This is an ecological and time series study with data from the Tuberculosis Patient Control System (TBWeb), including all new cases of tuberculosis co-infected individuals with HIV living in the municipality from 2007 to 2015. Time trends of the disease were analyzed using Prais-Winsten regression. The cases were geocoded by the address of residence for the elaboration of maps with the incidence rates smoothed by the local empirical Bayesian method. The global and local Moran indexes evaluated spatial autocorrelation. Individuals' profiles were described and the characteristics of the cases with and without fixed residence were compared by Pearson's chi-square or Fisher's exact tests. RESULTS: We analyzed 6,092 new cases of TB-HIV co-infection (5,609 with fixed residence and 483 without fixed residence). The proportion of TB-HIV co-infection ranged from 10.5% to 13.7%, with a drop of 3.0% per year (95%CI -3.4 - -2.6) and was higher in individuals without fixed residence. Incidence rates decreased by 3.6% per year (95%CI -4.4% - -2.7%), declining from 7.0 to 5.3 per 100,000 inhabitants/year. Co-infection showed positive and significant spatial autocorrelation, with heterogeneous spatial pattern and a high-risk cluster in the central region of the municipality. Cure was achieved in 55.5% of cases with fixed residence and in 32.7% of those without a fixed residence. CONCLUSIONS: The data indicate an important advance in the control of TB-HIV co-infection in the period analyzed. However, we identified areas and populations that were unequally affected by the disease and that should be prioritized in the improvement of actions to prevent and control co-infection.

Spatial pattern of mortality from breast and cervical cancer in the city of São Paulo.

OBJECTIVE: To verify the spatial pattern of mortality from breast and cervical cancer in areas of primary health care, considering socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: This is an ecological study, from January 2000 to December 2016. The study area is the municipality of São Paulo, Brazil, and its 456 coverage areas of primary health units. Information on deaths of women aged 20 years or over were geocoded according to residence address. We calculated mortality rates, standardized by age, and smoothed by the local empirical Bayesian method, and grouped into three or two years to reduce the random fluctuation of the data. In addition, bivariate global and local Moran indexes were calculated to verify the existence of spatial agglomeration of standardized mortality rates with a domain of socioeconomic condition, elaborated based on the Índice Paulista de Vulnerabilidade Social (IPVS - São Paulo Index of Social Vulnerability). RESULTS: The success rate of geocoding was 98.9%. Mortality from breast cancer, without stratification by time, showed a pattern with higher rates located in central regions with better socioeconomic conditions. It showed a decrease at the end of the period and a change in spatial pattern, with increased mortality in peripheral regions. On the other hand, mortality from cervical cancer remained with the highest rates in peripheral regions with worse socioeconomic conditions, despite being reduced over time. CONCLUSION: The spatial pattern of mortality from the studied cancers, over time, suggests association with the best socioeconomic conditions of the municipality, either as protection (cervical) or risk (breast). This knowledge may direct resources to prevent and promote health in the territories.

A spatial case-control study on symptomatic and inapparent primary dengue infections in an endemic city in Brazil

ABSTRACT We conducted a spatial case-control study nested in a dengue incidence cohort to explore the role of the spatial and socioeconomic factors in the proportion of symptomatic (cases) and inapparent primary dengue virus infections (controls). Cohort participants were children and adolescents (2 to 16 years of age) at the beginning of the follow-up. Case definitions were, for symptomatic cases, fever plus a positive lab result for acute dengue (NS1, RT-PCR, ELISA IgM/IgG), and for inapparent infection a positive result for dengue IgG (ELISA) in subjects without symptoms and with a previously negative result at baseline. The covariates included sociodemographic factors, residential location, and socioeconomic context variables of the census tracts of residence of cases and controls. We used principal component analysis to reduce the contextual covariates, with the component values assigned to each one based on their residences. The data were modeled in a Bayesian context, considering the spatial dependence. The final sample consisted of 692 children, 274 cases and 418 controls, from the first year of follow-up (2014-2015). Being male, older age, higher educational level of the head of the family and having a larger number of rooms in the household were associated with a greater chance of presenting dengue symptomatic infection at the individual level. The contextual covariates were not associated with the outcome. Inapparent dengue infection has extensive epidemiological consequences. Relying solely on notifications of symptomatic dengue infections underestimates the number of cases, preserves a silent source of the disease, potentially spreading the virus to unaffected areas.

Echovirus 6 associated to aseptic meningitis outbreak, in São Joaquim da Barra, São Paulo, Brazil.

An aseptic meningitis outbreak occurred during a period from February to May 2004 in São Joaquim da Barra, a town in the northern region of São Paulo State. A total of 40 cases were reported to the Epidemiological Surveillance Center of São Paulo State. Cerebrospinal fluid samples obtained from 23 patients were sent to the Adolfo Lutz Institute for isolation of the virus. These samples were inoculated into RD, HEp2 and Vero cell lineages and those presenting a cytopathogenic effect were selected for analysis by indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA), neutralization testing (Nt) and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Cytopathogenic effects were observed in 52.2% (12/23) of these samples. All isolated viruses were identified as human enterovirus by IFA and RT-PCR and echovirus 6 was typed by IFA and Nt. Our results confirmed the participation and importance of echovirus as the etiological agent responsible for this outbreak and the serotype diversity of human enteroviruses circulating in São Paulo State.

Severe influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in pregnant women and neonatal outcomes, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2009.

To investigate the factors associated with death and describe the gestational outcomes in pregnant women with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, we conducted a case-control study (deaths and recovered) in hospitalized pregnant women with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) in the state of São Paulo from June 9 to December 1, 2009. All cases were evaluated, and four controls that were matched by the epidemiological week of hospitalization of the case were randomly selected for each case. Cases and controls were selected from the National Disease Notification System-SINAN Influenza-web. The hospital records from 126 hospitals were evaluated, and home interviews were conducted using standardized forms. A total of 48 cases and 185 controls were investigated. Having had a previous health visit to a healthcare provider for an influenza episode before hospital admission was a risk factor for death (adjusted OR (ORadj) of 7.93, 95% CI 2.19-28.69). Although not significant in the multiple analysis (ORadj of 2.13, 95% CI 0.91-5.00), the 3rd trimester deserves attention, with an OR = 2.22, 95% CI 1.13-4.37 in the univariate analysis. Antiviral treatment was a protective factor when administered within 48 hours of symptom onset (ORadj = 0.16, 95% CI 0.05-0.50) and from 48 to 72 hours (ORadj = 0.09, 95% CI 0.01-0.87). There was a higher proportion of fetal deaths and preterm births among cases (p = 0.001) and live births with low weight (p = 0.019), compared to control subjects who gave birth during hospitalization. After discharge, control subjects had a favorable neonatal outcome. Early antiviral treatment during the presence of a flu-like illness is an important factor in reducing mortality from influenza in pregnant women and unfavorable neonatal outcomes. It is important to monitor pregnant women, particularly in the 3rd trimester of gestation, with influenza illness for diagnosis and early treatment.

Variabilidade espacial intraurbana da mortalidade por câncer de mama e do colo do útero no município de São Paulo: análise dos fatores associados / Intra-urban spatial variability of breast and cervical cancer mortality in the city of São Paulo: analysis of associated factors

RESUMO Objetivo: Identificar a variabilidade espacial da mortalidade por câncer de mama e colo do útero e avaliar fatores associados à mortalidade por esses cânceres no município de São Paulo. Métodos: Entre 2009 e 2016 foram registrados, no Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade, 10.124 óbitos por câncer de mama e 2.116 óbitos por câncer do colo do útero em mulheres com 20 anos e mais. Os registros foram geocodificados por endereço de residência e agregados segundo território adstrito. Foram realizadas modelagens de regressão espacial utilizando-se a abordagem bayesiana com estrutura de Besag-York-Mollié para verificar a associação dos óbitos com indicadores selecionados. Resultados: As taxas de mortalidade por esses cânceres apresentaram padrões espaciais inversos. As variáveis associadas à mortalidade por câncer de mama foram: tempo de deslocamento para o trabalho entre uma e duas horas (risco relativo — RR 0,97; intervalo de credibilidade — IC95% 0,93-1,00); mulheres responsáveis pelo domicílio (RR 0,97; IC95% 0,94-0,99) e óbitos por câncer de mama ocorridos em estabelecimentos privados (RR 1,04; IC95% 1,00-1,07). À mortalidade por câncer do colo do útero, estiveram associados: tempo de deslocamento para o trabalho entre meia e uma hora (RR 0,92; IC95% 0,87-0,98); rendimento domiciliar até três salários-mínimos (RR 1,27; IC95% 1,18-1,37); e razão de menores de um ano em relação à população feminina de 15 a 49 anos (RR 1,09; IC95% 1,01-1,18). Conclusão: Foram calculados os RR preditos para a mortalidade por esses cânceres, que estiveram associados às condições socioeconômicas das áreas de abrangência.

ABSTRACT Objective: To identify spatial variability of mortality from breast and cervical cancer and to assess factors associated in the city of São Paulo. Methods: Between 2009 and 2016, 10,124 deaths from breast cancer and 2,116 deaths from cervical cancer were recorded in the Mortality Information System among women aged 20 years and over. The records were geocoded by address of residence and grouped according to Primary Health Care coverage areas. A spatial regression modeling was put together using the Bayesian approach with a Besag-York-Mollié structure to verify the association of deaths with selected indicators. Results: Mortality rates from these types of cancer showed inverse spatial patterns. These variables were associated with breast cancer mortality: travel time between one and two hours to work (RR - relative risk: 0.97; 95%CI - credible interval: 0.93-1.00); women being the head of the household (RR 0.97; 95%CI 0.94-0.99) and deaths from breast cancer in private health institutions (RR 1.04; 95%CI 1.00-1.07). The following variables were associated with mortality from cervical cancer: travel time to work between half an hour and one hour (RR 0.92; 95%CI 0.87-0.98); per capita household income of up to 3 minimum wages (RR 1.27; 95%CI 1.18-1.37) and ratio of children under one year of age related to the female population aged 15 to 49 years (RR 1.09; 95%CI 1.01-1.18). Conclusion: The predicted RR for mortality from these cancers were calculated and associated with the socioeconomic conditions of the areas covered.

Spatial, spatio-temporal, and origin-destination flow analyses of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome hospitalized for COVID-19 in Southeastern Brazil, 2020-2021

ABSTRACT Brazil experienced one of the fastest increasing numbers of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases worldwide. The Sao Paulo State (SPS) reported a high incidence, particularly in Sao Paulo municipality. This study aimed to identify clusters of incidence and mortality of hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome for COVID-19 in the SPS, in 2020-2021, and describe the origin flow pattern of the cases. Cases and mortality risk area clusters were identified through different analyses (spatial clusters, spatio-temporal clusters, and spatial variation in temporal trends) by weighting areas. Ripley's K12-function verified the spatial dependence between the cases and infrastructure. There were 517,935 reported cases, with 152,128 cases resulting in death. Of the 470,441 patients hospitalized and residing in the SPS, 357,526 remained in the original municipality, while 112,915 did not. Cases and death clusters were identified in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR) and Baixada Santista region in the first study period, and in the SPMR and the Campinas, Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Barretos, and Sorocaba municipalities during the second period. We highlight the priority areas for control and surveillance actions for COVID-19, which could lead to better outcomes in future outbreaks.

Breast cancer mortality and associated factors in São Paulo State, Brazil: an ecological analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Identify the factors associated with the age-standardised breast cancer mortality rate in the municipalities of State of São Paulo (SSP), Brazil, in the period from 2006 to 2012. DESIGN: Ecological study of the breast cancer mortality rate standardised by age, as the dependent variable, having each of the 645 municipalities in the SSP as the unit of analysis. SETTINGS: The female resident population aged 15 years or older, by age group and municipality, in 2009 (mid-term), obtained from public dataset (Informatics Department of the Unified Health System). PARTICIPANTS: Women 15 years or older who died of breast cancer in the SSP were selected for the calculation of the breast cancer mortality rate, according to the municipality and age group, from 2006 to 2012. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality rates for each municipality calculated by the direct standardisation method, using the age structure of the population of SSP in 2009 as the standard. RESULTS: In the final linear regression model, breast cancer mortality, in the municipal level, was directly associated with rates of nulliparity (p<0.0001), mammography (p<0.0001) and private healthcare (p=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: The findings that mammography ratio was associated, in the municipal level, with increased mortality add to the evidence of a probable overestimation of benefits and underestimation of risks associated with this form of screening. The same paradoxical trend of increased mortality with screening was found in recent individual-level studies, indicating the need to expand informed choice for patients, primary prevention actions and individualised screening. Additional studies should be conducted to explore if there is a causality link in this association.

Hospital-based surveillance of intussusception among infants.

OBJECTIVE: Intussusception surveillance was initiated after the nationwide introduction of live attenuated monovalent rotavirus vaccine (RV1). The objective is to assess the epidemiology of intussusception and compare the number of cases before and after the introduction of rotavirus vaccine. METHODS: Cases of intussusception occurring between March 2006 and January 2008 were identified through a prospective enhanced passive surveillance system established in sentinel state hospitals. Retrospective review of medical records was used to identify cases, which occurred in sentinel hospitals between January 2001 and February 2006. RESULTS: From 2001 to 2008, 331 intussusception cases were identified, 59.5% were male, with peak incidence among those 18-24 weeks of age. Overall <10% of cases were among infants 6-14 weeks of age (when the first dose of RV1 is administered). The most frequently observed signs or symptoms of intussusception included vomiting (89.4%), bloody stool (75.5%), and abdominal distention (71.8%). A majority (92.1%) of the case-patients required surgery for treatment; 31.8% of those who underwent surgery required bowel resection, and 13 (3.9%) died. Among the 21 hospitals that reported cases throughout the entire surveillance period (2001-2008), the number of intussusception events during 2007 (n=26) and 2008 (n=19) was not greater than the average annual number (n=31, range 24-42) during baseline years 2001-2005. CONCLUSIONS: Although this analysis did not identify an increase in intussusception cases during the two years after RV1 introduction, these results support the need for special epidemiologic methods to assess the potential link between rotavirus vaccine and this very rare adverse event.

Outubro Rosa e mamografias: quando a comunicação em saúde erra o alvo / Octubre Rosa y mamografías: cuando la comunicación en salud confunde el objetivo / Pink October and mammograms: when health communication misses the target

O câncer de mama é o tipo de câncer mais diagnosticado e a principal causa de morte por câncer na população feminina. As mamografias de rastreamento e o tratamento precoce são geralmente os meios mais utilizados na tentativa de reduzir essa mortalidade e são incentivados no Outubro Rosa, uma campanha de divulgação anual. Contudo, estudos recentes têm relacionado o aumento do rastreamento com uma maior morbimortalidade em razão do sobrediagnóstico e do sobretratamento. No presente estudo, avaliaram-se as buscas relativas ao câncer de mama e à mamografia no Google Trends, entre 2004 e 2019, em termos da tendência, da sazonalidade e da distribuição nas Unidades Federativas brasileiras. Avaliou-se também a correlação entre a quantidade de buscas no Google Trends e a quantidade de exames de rastreamento mamográfico. As duas séries tiveram um padrão sazonal com picos em outubro, e houve excesso de exames realizados fora da faixa etária recomendada. O Outubro Rosa transmitiu informações de saúde, as popularizou e induziu comportamentos relativos a informações transmitidas; três aspectos desejáveis na comunicação e na educação em saúde. Porém, gerou um excesso de mamografias de rastreamento e não incentivou a autonomia e o consentimento livre e esclarecido. O Outubro Rosa mostrou o potencial da comunicação em saúde para massas e a necessidade de que as mensagens sejam alinhadas com as melhores evidências científicas.

El cáncer de mama es el tipo de cáncer más diagnosticado y la principal causa de muerte por cáncer en la población femenina. Las mamografías de rastreo y el tratamiento precoz son generalmente los medios más utilizados en la tentativa de reducir esa mortalidad, y son incentivados en el Octubre Rosa, una campaña de divulgación anual. No obstante, estudios recientes han relacionado el aumento del rastreo con una mayor morbimortalidad, debido al sobrediagnóstico y al sobretratamiento. En el presente estudio se evaluaron las búsquedas relativas al cáncer de mama, y a la mamografía en Google Trends entre 2004 y 2019, en términos de tendencia, de estacionalidad y de su distribución en las Unidades Federativas brasileñas. Se evaluó también la correlación entre la cantidad de búsquedas en Google Trends y la cantidad de exámenes de rastreo mamográfico. Las dos series tuvieron un patrón estacional con picos en octubre, y hubo un exceso de exámenes realizados fuera de la franja etaria recomendada. Octubre Rosa transmitió información de salud, la popularizó e indujo a comportamientos relacionados con la información transmitida; tres aspectos deseables en la comunicación y educación en salud. Sin embargo, generó un exceso de mamografías de rastreo y no incentivó la autonomía y el consentimiento libre e informado. Octubre Rosa mostró el potencial de la comunicación en salud para las masas y la necesidad de que los mensajes estén alineados con mejores evidencias científicas.

Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed type of cancer and is the leading cause of death from cancer in the female population. Screening mammograms and early treatment are the most frequently used means to attempt to reduce this mortality and are promoted during Pink October, an annual awareness-raising campaign. However, recent studies have correlated the increase in screening with higher morbidity and mortality, due to overdiagnosis and overtreatment. The current study assessed searches related to breast cancer and mammogram in Google Trends from 2004 to 2019 in terms of trend, seasonality, and distribution in Brazilian states. The study also evaluatedH the correlation between the number of searches in Google Trends and the number of screening mammograms. The two series showed a seasonal pattern with peaks in October, and there was an excess in tests performed outside the recommended age bracket. Pink October transmitted and popularized health information and induced behaviors related to this information, which are three desirable aspects in health communication and education. However, the campaign also generated an excess in screening mammograms and did not encourage autonomy and free and informed consent. Pink October revealed both the potential of mass communication in health and the need for messages to be aligned with the best available scientific evidence.

Prevalence evolution of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the city of São Paulo, 2020-2021

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the evolution of the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection among residents aged 18 years or over in the municipality of São Paulo. METHODS This is a population-based household survey conducted every 15 days, between June and September 2020, and January and February 2021. In total, the study comprised 11 phases. The presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 was identified in venous blood using a lateral flow test, Wondfo Biotech. In the last phase, the researchers combined it with an immunoenzymatic test, Euroimmun. The participants also answered a semi-structured questionnaire on sociodemographic and economic factors, and on social distancing measures. Prevalence estimates and the 95% confidence interval were estimated according to regions, Human Development Index, sex, age group, ethnicity, education, income, and variables associated with risk or prevention of infection. To compare the frequencies among the categories of each variable, the chi-square test with Rao-Scott correction was used, considering a significance level of 5%. RESULTS In total, 23,397 individuals were interviewed and had their samples collected. The estimated prevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 ranged from 9.7% (95%CI: 7.9-11.8%) to 25.0% (95%CI: 21.7-28.7). The prevalence of individuals with antibodies against the virus was higher among black and brown people, people with lower schooling and income, and among residents of regions with lower Human Development Index. The lowest prevalences were associated with recommended measures of disease protection. The proportion of asymptomatic infection was 45.1%. CONCLUSION The estimated prevalence of the infection was lower than the cumulative incidence variation, except for the last phase of the study. The differences in prevalence estimates observed among subpopulations showed social inequality as a risk of infection. The lower prevalence observed among those who could follow prevention measures reinforce the need to maintain social distancing measures as a way to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection.