The effect of early surgery after hip fracture on 1-year mortality.

BACKGROUND: Hip fracture injuries are identified as one of the most serious healthcare problems affecting older people. Many studies have explored the associations among patient characteristics, treatment processes, time to surgery and various outcomes in patients hospitalized for hip fracture. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the difference in 1-year mortality after hip fracture between patients undergoing early surgery (within 2 days) and patients undergoing delayed surgery in Italy. METHODS: Observational, retrospective study based on the Hospital Information System (HIS). This cohort study included patients aged 65 years and older who were residing in Italy and were admitted to an acute care hospital for a hip fracture between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2012. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to assess the effect of early surgery on the likelihood of 1-year mortality after hip fracture, adjusting for risk factors that could affect the outcome under study. The absolute number of deaths prevented by exposure to early surgery was calculated. RESULTS: We studied a total of 405,037 admissions for hip fracture. Patients who underwent surgery within 2 days had lower 1-year mortality compared to those who waited for surgery more than 2 days (Hazard Ratios -HR-: 0.83; 95 % CI: 0.82-0.85). The number of deaths prevented by the exposure to early surgery was 5691. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to evaluate the association between time to surgery and 1-year mortality for all Italian elderly patients hospitalized for hip fracture. The study confirmed the previous reports on the association between delayed surgery and increased mortality and complication rates in elderly patients admitted for hip fracture. Our data support the notion that deviating from surgical guidelines in hip fracture is costly, in terms of both human life and excess hospital stay.

Differential misclassification of confounders in comparative evaluation of hospital care quality: caesarean sections in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Despite extensive studies on exposure and disease misclassification, few studies have investigated misclassification of confounders. This study aimed to identify differentially misclassified confounders in a comparative evaluation of hospital care quality and to quantify their impact on hospital-specific risk-adjusted estimates, focusing on the appropriateness of caesarean sections (CS). METHODS: We gathered data from the Hospital Information System in Italy for women admitted in 2005-2010. We estimated adjusted proportions of CS with logistic regression models. Among several confounders, we focused on high fetal head at term (HFH), which is seldom objectively documentable in medical records. RESULTS: A total of 540 maternity units were compared. The median HFH prevalence was 0.9%, ranging from 0 to 70%. In some units, HFH was coded so frequently that it was unlikely to reflect a natural heterogeneity. This "over-coding" was conditional on the outcome because it occurred more frequently for women that underwent CS. This suggested an opportunistic coding to justify the choice of a CS. HFH misclassification was not randomly distributed over Italy; it had an excess in the Campania region where, in some units, the proportion of HFHs gradually increased from 2005 to 2010 (e.g., from 0 to 26%), but the national average remained constant (2.5%). The inclusion of the misclassified diagnosis in the models favored those hospitals that codified in a less-than-fair manner. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings emphasized the importance of rigorously inspecting for differential misclassification of confounders. Their validity may be subject to substantial heterogeneity over hospitals, over time and geographical areas.

Using clinical variables and drug prescription data to control for confounding in outcome comparisons between hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Hospital discharge records are an essential source of information when comparing health outcomes among hospitals; however, they contain limited information on acute clinical conditions. Doubts remain as to whether the addition of clinical and drug consumption information would improve the prediction of health outcomes and reduce confounding in inter-hospital comparisons. The objective of the study is to compare the performance of two multivariate risk adjustment models, with and without clinical data and drug prescription information, in terms of their capability to a) predict short-term outcome rates and b) compare hospitals' risk-adjusted outcome rates using two risk-adjustment procedures. METHODS: Observational, retrospective study based on hospital data collected at the regional level.Two cohorts of patients discharged in 2010 from hospitals located in the Lazio Region, Italy: acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and hip fracture (HF). Multivariate logistic regression models were implemented to predict 30-day mortality (AMI) or 48-hour surgery (HF), adjusting for demographic characteristics and comorbidities plus clinical data and drug prescription information. Risk-adjusted outcome rates were derived at the hospital level. RESULTS: The addition of clinical data and drug prescription information improved the capability of the models to predict the study outcomes for the two conditions investigated. The discriminatory power of the AMI model increases when the clinical data and drug prescription information are included (c-statistic increases from 0.761 to 0.797); for the HF model the increase was more slight (c-statistic increases from 0.555 to 0.574). Some differences were observed between the hospital-adjusted proportion estimated using the two different models. However, the estimated hospital outcome rates were weakly affected by the introduction of clinical data and drug prescription information. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the available clinical variables and drug prescription information were important complements to the hospital discharge data for characterising the acute severity of the patients. However, when these variables were used for adjustment purposes their contribution was negligible. This conclusion might not apply at other locations, in other time periods and for other health conditions if there is heterogeneity in the clinical conditions between hospitals.

Does public reporting improve the quality of hospital care for acute myocardial infarction? Results from a regional outcome evaluation program in Italy.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether public reporting of performance data was associated with a change over time in quality indicators for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Italian hospitals. DESIGN: Pre-post evaluation of AMI indicators in the Lazio region, before and after disclosure of the Regional Outcome Evaluation Program, and a comparative evaluation versus other Italian regions not participating in the program. SETTING/DATA SOURCES: Nationwide Hospital Information System and vital status records. PARTICIPANTS: 24 800 patients treated for AMI in Lazio and 39 350 in the other regions. INTERVENTION: Public reporting of the Regional Outcome Evaluation Program in the Lazio region. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Risk-adjusted indicators for AMI. RESULTS: The proportion of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients treated with percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) within 48 h in Lazio changed from 31.3 to 48.7%, before and after public reporting, respectively (relative increase 56%; P < 0.001). In the other regions, the proportion increased from 51.5 to 58.4% (relative increase 13%; P < 0.001). Overall 30-day mortality and 30-day mortality for patients treated with PCI did not improve during the study period. The 30-day mortality for STEMI patients not treated with PCI in Lazio was significantly higher in 2009 (29.0%) versus 2006/07 (24.0%) (P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: Public reporting may have contributed to increasing the proportion of STEMI patients treated with timely PCI. The mortality outcomes should be interpreted with caution. Changes in AMI diagnostic and coding systems should also be considered. Risk-adjusted quality indicators represent a fundamental instrument for monitoring and potentially enhancing quality of care.

Use patterns of long-acting bronchodilators in routine COPD care: the OUTPUL study.

BACKGROUND: COPD is the fourth leading cause of death in the world. In the case of exacerbations or persistent symptoms, regular treatment with long-acting bronchodilators is recommended to control the symptoms, reduce exacerbations and improve health status. Objectives. To describe patterns of drug utilization among patients diagnosed with COPD, to measure continuity with long-acting bronchodilators, to identify determinants of not receiving long-acting therapy continuously. METHODS: We identified a cohort of patients discharged from hospital with diagnosis of COPD between 2006 and 2008. Patients were observed for a two-year follow-up period, starting from the day of discharge. Follow-up was segmented in six-month periods, in order to dynamically evaluate prescription patterns of Long-Acting Beta-Agonists (LABA), tiotropium, and inhaled corticosteroids. Patients with prescriptions for LABA and/or tiotropium in each of the six-month periods were defined as "continuously treated with long-acting bronchodilators." The degree of drug treatment coverage was measured through the Medication Possession Ratio (MPR). Logistic regression was performed to identify determinants of not receiving long-acting bronchodilators continuously. RESULTS: A total of 11,452 patients diagnosed with COPD were enrolled. Only 34.8% received long-acting bronchodilators continuously. The MPR was greater than 75% in 19.6% of cases. Among the determinants of not receiving long-acting bronchodilators continuously, older age and co-morbidities played an important role. CONCLUSIONS: In clinical practice, the COPD pharmacotherapy is not consistent with clinical guidelines. Medical education is needed to disseminate evidence-based prescribing patterns for COPD, and to raise awareness among physicians and patients on the health benefits of an appropriate pharmacological treatment.

Effect of evidence-based drug therapy on long-term outcomes in patients discharged after myocardial infarction: a nested case­control study in Italy.

PURPOSE: There are some methodological concerns regarding results from observational studies about the effectiveness of evidence-based (EB) drug therapy in secondary prevention after myocardial infarction. The present study used a nested case­control approach to address these major methodological limitations. METHODS: A cohort of 6880 patients discharged from hospital after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in 2006­2007 was enrolled and followed-up throughout 2009. Exposure was defined as adherence to each drug in terms of the proportion of days covered (cutoff ≥ 75%). Composite treatment groups, that is, groups with no EB therapy or therapy with one, two, three, or four EB drugs), were analyzed. Outcomes were overall mortality and reinfarction. Nested case­control studies were performed for both outcomes, matching four controls to every case (841 deaths, 778 reinfarctions) by gender, age, and individual follow-up. The association between exposure to EB drug therapy and outcomes was analyzed using conditional logistic regression, adjusting for revascularization procedures, comorbidities, duration of index admission, and use of the study drugs prior to admission. RESULTS: Mortality and reinfarction risk decreased with the use of an increasing number of EB drugs. Combinations of two or more EB drugs were associated with a significant protective effect (p < 0.001) versus no EB drugs (mortality: 4 EB drugs: ORadj = 0.35; 95%CI: 0.21­0.59; reinfarction: 4 EB drugs: ORadj = 0.23; 95%CI: 0.15­0.37). CONCLUSIONS: These findings of the beneficial effects of EB polytherapy on mortality and morbidity in a population-based setting using a nested case­control approach strengthen existing evidence from observational studies.

[Volume and health outcomes: evidence from systematic reviews and from evaluation of Italian hospital data]. / Volumi di attività ed esiti delle cure: prove scientifiche dalla letteratura e dalle valutazioni empiriche in Italia.

BACKGROUND: Improving quality and effectiveness of health care is one of the priorities of health policies. Hospital or physician volume represents a measurable variable with a relevant impact on effectiveness of health care. A recent Italian law, the "spending review", calls for the definition of "qualitative, structural, technological and quantitative standards of hospital care". There is a need for an accurate evaluation of the available scientific evidence in order to identify these standards, including the volume of care above or below which the public and private hospitals may be accredited (or not) to provide specific health care interventions. Since 2009, the National Outcomes Programme evaluates outcomes of care of the Italian hospitals; nowadays it represents an official tool to assess the National Health System (NHS). In addition to outcome indicators, the last edition of the Programme (2013) includes a set of volume indicators for the conditions with available evidence of an association between volume and outcome. The assessment of factors, such as volume, that may affect the outcomes of care is one of its objectives. OBJECTIVES: To identify clinical conditions or interventions for which an association between volume and outcome has been investigated. To identify clinical conditions or interventions for which an association between volume and outcome has been proved. To analyse the distribution of Italian health providers by volume of activity. To measure the association between volume of care and outcomes of the health providers of the Italian NHS. METHODS: Systematic review. An overview of systematic reviews and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) reports performed searching electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library), websites of HTA Agencies, National Guideline Clearinghouse up to February 2012. Studies were evaluated for inclusion by two researchers independently; the quality assessment of included reviews was performed using the AMSTAR checklist. For each health condition and for each outcome considered, total number of studies, participants, high volume cut-off values (range, average and median) have been reported, where presented. Number of studies (and participants) with statistically significant positive association and metanalysis performed were also reported, if available. Analysis of the distribution of Italian hospitals by volume of activity and the association between volume of activity and outcomes. Outcomes National Programme 2011 The analyses were performed using the Hospital Information System and the National Tax Register pertaining the year 2011. For each condition, the number of hospitals by volume of activity was calculated. Hospitals with a volume of activity lower than 3-5 cases/year for the condition under study were excluded from the analysis. For conditions with more than 1,500 cases per year and frequency of outcome ≥ 3%, the association between volume of care and outcome was analysed. For these conditions, risk-adjusted outcomes were estimated according to the selection criteria and the statistical methodology of the National Outcome Programme. RESULTS: The systematic reviews identified were 107, of which 47, evaluating 38 clinical areas, were included. Many outcomes were assessed according to the clinical condition/procedure considered. The main outcome common to all clinical condition/procedures was intrahospital/30-day mortality. Health topics were classified in the following groups according to this outcome: Positive association: a statistically significant positive association was demonstrated in the majority of studies/participants and/or a pooled measure (metanalysis) with positive results was reported. Lack of association: no association was demonstrated in the majority of studies/participants and/or no metanalysis with positive results was reported. No sufficient evidence of association: both results of single studies and metanalysis do not allow to draw firm conclusions on the association between volume and outcome. Evidence of a positive association between volumes and intrahospital/ 30-day mortality was demonstrated for 26 clinical areas: AIDS, abdominal aortic aneurysm (ruptured and unruptured), coronary angioplasty, myocardial infarction, knee arthroplasty, coronary artery bypass, cancer surgery (breast, lung, colon, colon rectum, kidney, liver, stomach, bladder, oesophagus, pancreas, prostate); cholecystectomy, brain aneurysm, carotid endarterectomy, hip fracture, lower extremity bypass surgery, subarachnoid haemorrhage, neonatal intensive care, paediatric heart surgery. For 2 clinical conditions (hip arthroplasty and rectal cancer surgery) no association has been reported. Due to a lack of evidence, it was not possible to draw firm conclusion for 10 clinical areas (appendectomy, colectomy, aortofemoral bypass, testicle cancer surgery, cardiac catheterization, trauma, hysterectomy, inguinal hernia, paediatric oncology). The relationship between volume of clinician and outcomes has been assessed only through the literature review; to date, it is not possible to analyse this association for Italian health providers hospitals, since information on the clinician/surgeon on the hospital discharge chart is missing. The literature found a positive association for: AIDS, coronary angioplasty, unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm, hip arthroplasty, coronary artery bypass, cancer surgery (colon, stomach, bladder, breast, oesophagus), lower extremity bypass surgery. The analysis of the distribution of Italian hospitals per volume of activity concerned the 26 conditions for which the systematic review has shown a positive association between volume of activity and intrahospital/30-day mortality. For the following conditions it was possible to conduct the analysis of the association between volume and outcome of treatment using national data: unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm, coronary angioplasty, knee arthroplasty, coronary artery bypass, cancer surgery (colon, pancreas, lung, prostate, stomach, bladder), laparoscopic cholecystectomy, endarterectomy, hip fracture and acute myocardial infarction. For them, the association between volume and outcome of care has been observed. The shape of the relationship is variable among different conditions, with heterogeneous "slope" of the curves. DISCUSSION For many conditions, the systematic review of the literature has shown a strong evidence of association between higher volumes and better outcomes. Due to the difficulty to test such an association in randomized controlled studies, the studies included in the reviews were mainly observational studies: however, the quality of the available evidence can be considered good both for the consistency of the results between the studies and for the strength of the association. Where national data had sufficient statistical power, this association has been observed by the empirical analysis conducted on the health providers of the NHS in 2011. Analysing national data, potential confounders, including age and the presence of comorbidities in the admission under study and in the admissions of the two previous years, have been considered. The systematic review of the literature does not permit to identify predefined volume thresholds. The analysis of national data shows a strong improvement in outcomes in the first part of the curve (from very low volumes to higher volumes) for the majority of the studied conditions. In some cases the improvement in outcomes remains gradual or constant with the increasing volume of care, in other the analysis could allow the identification of threshold values beyond which the outcome does not improve further. However, a good knowledge of the relationship between effectiveness of treatments and their costs, the geographical distribution and the accessibility to health care services are necessary to choose the minimum volumes of care, under which specific health procedures in the NHS should not be provided. Some potential biases due to the use of information systems data should also be taken into account. In particular, it is necessary to consider possible selection bias due to the different way of coding among hospitals that could lead to a different selection of cases for some conditions (e.g. acute myocardial infarction), less likely to occur in the selection of cases for oncologic, orthopaedic, vascular, abdominal, and cardiac surgery. Regarding the definition of the exposure (volume of care), a possible bias could result from misclassification of health providers with high volume of activity. In fact, performing the intervention in different departments/units of the same hospital would result in an overestimation of the volume of care measured for hospital rather than for department/unit. A similar bias could occur if the main determinant of the outcome of treatment was the case load of each surgeon: the results of the analysis may be biased when the same procedure was carried out by different operators in the same hospital/unit. In any case, the observed association between volumes of care and outcome is very strong, and it is unlikely to be attributable to biases of the study design. However, the foreseen bias is likely to be non-differential, and, therefore, it would eventually lead to an underestimation of the true association between volume of care and outcome. Health systems operate, by definition, in a context of limited resources, especially when societies and governments choose to reduce the amount of resources to allocate to the health system. In such conditions, the rationalisation of the organization of health services based on the volume of care may make resources available to improve the effectiveness of interventions. The identification and certification of services and provider with high volume of activity can help to reduce differences in the access to no effective procedures.

[Definition and validation of a predictive model to identify patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) from administrative databases]. / Definizione e validazione di un modello predittivo per l'identificazione di pazienti affetti da broncopneumopatia cronica ostruttiva (BPCO) a partire dai sistemi informativi sanitari.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a predictive model for the identification of patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) among the resident population of the Lazio region, using information available in the regional administrative systems (SIS) as well as clinical data of a panel of COPD patients. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: All residents in the Lazio region over 40 years of age in 2007 (2,625,102 inhabitants) MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The predictive model was developed through record linkage of health care related consumption patterns among 428 panel patients with confirmed COPD diagnosis in 2006 and a control group of patients without COPD (selection from outpatients specialized health care registry, 1:4). Hospital admission for COPD was defined a priori to be sufficient to identify a COPD patient. For all other panel patients and controls, specific drug use (minimum 2 prescriptions during 12 months) and hospitalization for respiratory causes during the past 9 years were retrieved and compared between panel and control patients. COPD associated factors were selected through a Bootstrap- Stepwise (BS) procedure. The predictive model was validated through internal (cross-validation-bootstrap) and external validation (comparison with external COPD patients with confirmed diagnosis), and through comparison with other COPD identification approaches. RESULTS: The BS procedure identified the following predictors of COPD: consumption of beta 2 agonists, anticholinergics, corticosteroids, oxygen, and previous hospitalization for respiratory failure. For each patient, the expected probability of being affected by COPD was estimated. Depending on the cut-point of expected probability, sensibility ranged from 74.5% to 99.6% and specificity from 37.8% to 86.2%. Using the 0.30 cut-point, the model succeeded in identifying 67% of patients with diagnosis of COPD confirmed with spirometry. The predictive performance increased with increasing COPD severity. Prevalence of COPD turned out to be 7.8 %. The age-specific estimation was similar to results from other approaches. CONCLUSION: The predictive model shows good performance to identify COPD patients, even if it does not allow to identify those patients who have not been registered in the regional health care service or do not request any public health care service.

Definition of patients treated with evidence based drugs in absence of prescribed daily doses: the example of acute myocardial infarction.

PURPOSE: Define patients treated with evidence-based drugs in a cohort discharged after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in absence of prescribed daily doses (PDD). To compare different drug use measures and analyze their impact on the effect estimate of risk factors related to drug use. METHODS: AMI patients discharged in Rome during 2006-2007 were selected from the Hospital Information System. Drugs claimed during the 12 months after discharge were retrieved. Measures of drug use were defined as: 'continuity' (one prescription each follow-up quarter-year) and the 'proportion of days covered' calculated by defined daily doses (DDDs) or pill counts (PCs) (≥ 80% of individual follow-up). Poly-therapy was defined through the same drug use measure for all drug groups. Kappa index was calculated to analyze the concordance between measures. For each measure we estimated the effect of age, gender and Percutaneous Transluminal Coronary Angioplasty (PTCA) on poly-therapy. RESULTS: Poly-therapy rates varied between 11.5 and 37.8% in the cohort and between 17.3 and 56.9% in patients with at least one prescription for all drugs. Concordance between all measures was high for antiplatelets (k=0.74) and very low for beta-blockers (k=0.22). According to measures used, gender and older age effects slightly varied, while PTCA remained a strong determinant of drug use. CONCLUSIONS: Different measures of exposure to drug treatment may affect the estimate of the proportion of treated patients and the effect estimates of risk factors. Drug dispense registries are useful, but it is necessary to develop and validate methodologies in absence of PDD.

Effectiveness of therapies for heroin addiction in retaining patients in treatment: results from the VEdeTTE study.

Treatment is effective in reducing heroin use and clinical and social problems among heroin addicts. The effectiveness is related to the duration of treatment. "VEdeTTE" is an Italian longitudinal study funded by the Ministry of Health to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments provided by the National Health Services. The study involved 115 drug treatment centers and 10,454 heroin users. Clinical and personal information were collected at intake through a structured interview. Treatments were recorded using a standardized form. Survival analysis and Cox Proportional Hazard model were used to evaluate treatment retention. Five thousand four hundred and fifty-seven patients who started a treatment in the 18 months of the study were included in the analysis: 43.2% received methadone maintenance therapy (MMT), 10.5% therapeutic community, and 46.3% abstinence-oriented therapy (AOT). The likelihood of remaining in treatment was 0.5 at 179 days. The median daily dose of methadone was 37 mg. Psychotherapy was provided in 7.6% of patients receiving methadone and 4.9% of those in therapeutic community. Type of therapy was the strongest predictor of retention, with AOT showing the lowest retention. In MMT patients, retention improved according to dose. Living alone, psychiatric comorbidity and cocaine use increased the risk of dropout. Psychotherapy associated halved the risk of dropout.

Socioeconomic differences in stroke incidence and prognosis under a universal healthcare system.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Low socioeconomic position (SEP) is associated with high overall stroke mortality, but its contribution to stroke prognosis is unclear. We evaluated socioeconomic disparities in stroke incidence and poststroke outcomes. METHODS: We collected hospital discharge and mortality data for all 35- to 84-year-old Rome residents who had a first acute ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke in 2001 to 2004. We used a small-area SEP index. We calculated age-adjusted incidence rates and rate ratios by SEP for fatal and nonfatal stroke subtypes using Poisson regression. Logistic regression was used to study outcomes by SEP (30-day mortality, and among 1-month survivors: 1-year mortality, hospital readmissions for a successive stroke, and cardiovascular diseases). RESULTS: A total of 10 033 incident strokes (75% ischemic) were observed. Incidence rates (per 100 000) for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke were: 104 and 34 in men and 81 and 28 in women, respectively. There were socioeconomic disparities in stroke incidence in both genders (rate ratios between extreme SEP categories in ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke: 1.76; 95% CI,1.59 to 1.95; 1.50; 95% CI, 1.26 to 1.80 in men; 1.72; 95% CI, 1.55 to 1.91; 1.37; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.63 in women). No association was found for SEP and mortality after stroke. Men with low SEP with an ischemic event were more likely to be hospitalized for a new stroke than men with high SEP. Women with low SEP with hemorrhagic stroke were more likely to be hospitalized for cardiovascular disease compared with women with high SEP. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke incidence strongly differs between socioeconomic groups reflecting a heterogeneous distribution of lifestyle and clinical risk factors. Strategies for primary prevention should target less affluent people.

Summer temperature-related mortality: effect modification by previous winter mortality.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have described seasonal patterns of mortality, with rates higher in winter and lower in summer. Few researchers, however, have analyzed how the mortality rate in winter may influence the temperature-mortality association in the following summer. In the present paper, we addressed the question of whether the association between summer temperature and mortality among the elderly is modified by the previous winter mortality rate. METHODS: We selected all deaths in Rome during 1987-2005 among persons 65 years old or older. We collected data on daily mean temperature and humidity. We estimated the effect of summer apparent temperature on mortality by using a time-series approach, and tested the effect modification based on the mortality rate during the preceding winter. RESULTS: The effect of summer apparent temperature on mortality was stronger in years characterized by low mortality in the previous winter (relative risk for days at 30 degrees C vs. days at 20 degrees C = 1.73 [95% confidence interval = 1.50-2.01]), as contrasted with years with medium (1.32 [1.25-1.41]) or high winter mortality (1.34 [1.17-1.55]). The percentages of attributable risks for summer heat were 28%, 18%, and 18% for years characterized by low, medium, or high winter mortality rates respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Low-mortality winters may inflate the pool of the elderly susceptible population at risk for dying from high temperature the following summer.

Effects of socioeconomic position on 30-day mortality and wait for surgery after hip fracture.

OBJECTIVE: In countries where the National Health Service provides universal health coverage, socioeconomic position should not influence the quality of health care. We examined whether socioeconomic position plays a role in short-term mortality and waiting time for surgery after hip fracture. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: and participants From the Hospital Information System database, we selected all patients, aged at least 65 years and admitted to acute care hospitals in Rome for a hip fracture between 1 January 2006 and 30 November 2007. The socioeconomic position of each individual was obtained using a city-specific index of socioeconomic variables based on the individual's census tract of residence. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Three different outcomes were defined: waiting times for surgery, mortality within 30 days and intervention within 48 h of hospital arrival for hip fracture. We used a logistic regression to estimate 30-day mortality and a Cox proportional hazard model to calculate hazard ratios of intervention within 48 h. Median waiting times were estimated by adjusted Kaplan-Meyer curves. Analyses were adjusted for age, gender and coexisting medical conditions. RESULTS: Low socioeconomic level was significantly associated with higher risk of mortality [adjusted relative risk (RR) = 1.51; P < 0.05] and lower risk of early intervention (adjusted RR = 0.32; P < 0.001). Socioeconomic level had also an effect on waiting times within 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals living in disadvantaged census tracts had poorer prognoses and were less likely than more affluent people to be treated according to clinical guidelines despite universal healthcare coverage.

[Socioeconomic disparities in mortality among older people in Sicily]. / Un indicatore comunale di posizione socioeconomica e mortalità nell'anziano in Sicilia.

OBJECTIVE: to construct a composite municipal index of socioeconomic position (SEP) and to describe socioeconomic disparities in mortality within Sicilian elderly inhabitants (age 65+). DESIGN: 2001 Sicily Census data were used to develop a 5-level SEP index for the 390 municipalities of the Region. Education, occupation, housing tenure, family composition and immigration were considered in order to perform a factor analysis. We used Sicilian Mortality Registry data to compute standardized mortality rates by gender. The SEP index was used for mortality from all causes and for most common causes of death in elderly population. Rates, with 95% confidence intervals, were computed to compare mortality in each level of SEP to the highest level. RESULTS: there were socioeconomic disparities both in overall and in cause-specific mortality. Progressively higher mortality rates with lower SEP were observed for overall mortality (ratio between extreme categories: 1.16 in men, 1.14 in women), as well for mortality from cardiovascular diseases in both genders (ratio between extreme categories: 1.12 in men, 1.09 in women), from respiratory disease in men (ratio between extreme categories: 1.20), and from endocrine glands diseases in women (ratio between extreme categories: 1.35). For deaths from cancer and from diseases of the digestive system mortalities, in both genders, we found higher risks within the lowest SEP level as compared to the highest. Cardiovascular diseases contributed the most to the socioeconomic differences in overall mortality. CONCLUSION: Within the Sicilian elderly population, socioeconomic position is associated with mortality. The highest mortality rates were observed in the most disadvantaged municipalities. Moreover, mortality rates were oddly distributed by gender.

Characteristics of ED crowding in the Lazio Region (Italy) and short-term health outcomes.

The effect of emergency department (ED) crowding on patient care has been studied for several years in the scientific literature. We evaluate the association between ED crowding and short-term mortality and hospitalization in the Lazio region (Italy) using two different measures. A cohort of visits in the Lazio region ED during 2012-2014 was enrolled. Only discharged patients were selected. ED crowding was estimated using two measures, length of stay (LOS), and Emergency Department volume (EDV). LOS was defined as the interval of time from entrance to discharge; EDV was defined at the time of each new entrance in ED. The outcomes under study were mortality and hospitalization within 7 days from ED discharge. A multivariate logistic model was performed (Odds Ratios, ORs, 95% CI). The cohort includes 2,344,572 visits. ED crowding is associated with an increased risk of short-term hospitalization using both LOS and EDV as exposures (LOS 1-2 h: OR = 1.71, 95% CI 1.66-1.76, LOS 2-5 h: OR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.34-1.43, LOS > 5 h OR = 1.45 95% CI 1.40-1.50 compared to patients with 1 h of LOS; EDV 75°-95° percentile: OR = 1.02, 95% CI 0.99-1.05 and EDV > 95° percentile: OR = 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.11 compared to patients with a EDV < 75° percentile upon arrival). Increased risk of short-term mortality is found with increasing level of LOS. High levels of EDV at the time of patients' arrival and longer LOS in ED are associated with greater risks of hospitalization for patients discharged 7 days before. LOS in ED is also associated with an increased risk of mortality.

[Characteristics and effectiveness of smoking cessation programs in Italy. Results of a multicentric longitudinal study]. / Interventi per la cessazione dell'abitudine al fumo in Italia: offerta ed efficacia nella pratica. Risultati di uno studio longitudinale multicentrico.

AIM: to describe the characteristics and effectiveness of various smoking cessation programs offered by Italian treatment services operating within the National Health Service. DESIGN: prospective longitudinal multicentre study involving 41 smoking cessation services in 16 Italian regions. STUDY POPULATION: the study population includes patients entering smoking cessation programs between April 2003 and June 2004. The "study population" includes 1226 patients (54.2% males and 45.4% females), mean age 47 years. Patients have a middle/high level of education and a long history of smoking; most are highly dependent on nicotine and report previous attempts to quit smoking. METHODS: treatment effectiveness in smoking cessation is assessed six months after entering treatment service. Logistic Regression Model was used to determine the predictors of successfiul cessation, independent of treatment typology. The predictors were included as confounding variables in the logistic regression model that was used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments. Besides the effect of treatment completion on smoking cessation was estimated. RESULTS: predictors of successful smoking cessation are: being male, presence of a partner, strong motivation to quit, previous attempts to give up smoking, mild nicotine dependence, and not suffering from mood disturbances. All treatments are effective in helping people to stop smoking: cessation rate ranges between 25.00% for patients receiving a single session of motivational counselling and 65.3% for those receiving nicotine replacement therapy combined to group therapy. Compared to a single session of motivational counseling, nicotine replacement therapy combined to group therapy is the most effective therapeutic program (OR 5.4; 95%CI 12.5-12.0). Treatment completion is a strong determinant ofsuccess (OR 4.8; 95%CI 3.5-6.4). CONCLUSION: enrolling people in any type of therapeutic program, in particular nicotine replacement therapy combined with group therapy increases the probability of successfully quitting smoking; moreover, patients that begin a smoking cessation program should be encouraged to complete the therapy

The Italian CABG Outcome Study: short-term outcomes in patients with coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

OBJECTIVE: During the last decade, a worldwide growing interest in evaluating performance of health services through 'outcome studies' took place. This study started in early 2002 and represents the first National Health System (NHS) experience to evaluate adjusted performance indicators at national level. The aim of this study was to compare 30 days mortality after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) between cardiac surgery centres, adjusting by confounding risk factors. METHODS: All patients, aged 15-99 years, undergoing a CABG intervention after 1st January 2002 in 82 participating centres were eligible for this observational longitudinal study. For each patient, data on severity and risk factors were collected (type of procedure, haemodynamic condition, co-morbidities, recent myocardial infarction and unstable angina, ventricular function, emergency condition, vital status at 30 days). Using a multiple logistic regression analysis the best predictive model was developed for risk-adjustment; a cross-validation procedure was applied; specific risk adjusted mortality rates (RAMR) were estimated. The overall study population was used as reference standard. RESULTS: 34,310 isolated CABG were performed in 64 of the 82 participating centres. Thirty days mortality resulted 2.61%, ranging from 0.33 to 7.63%; eight centres presented a RAMR significantly lower and seven significantly higher than the reference. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides valid measures of the heterogeneity between outcomes of the Italian cardiac surgery centres, to support decision-making by NHS management and individual patients. Although not statistically significant, RAMR dropped from year 2002 to 2004 (2.8-2.4%) suggesting that this comparative outcome assessment can contribute to the improvement of performances in cardiac surgery.

Mortality study of employees in a factory of recovery and refining of catalytic converters in Rome, Italy.

The study objective is to describe cause specific mortality of employees in a plant engaged in production, recovery and refining of catalytic converters located in Rome. Previous epidemiological studies conducted in similar plants are not available. A total of 828 workers (642 males and 186 females) were followed up between 1956 and 31-12-2003. Cause specific standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and 90% confidence intervals (CI) were computed using regional rates for comparison. Among males hired between 1956 and 1993, followed up until 31/12/2003, mortality for all causes (SMR 0,8; 90% CI 0,7-1,0; 85 observed) and all neoplasms (SMR 0,6; 90% CI 0,42-0,87; 20 observed) is below expected; an increase is present for liver cirrhosis (SMR 2,74; 90% CI 1,47-5,1; 7 observed) and brain cancer (SMR 5,24; 90% CI 2,3-11,90; 4 observed). The present investigation complies with the proposed scientific standards for occupational cohort studies. The study was not prompted by well defined a priori hypotheses but it is included in a process intended to typify a potentially polluted site; the absence of a priori hypotheses and of previous epidemiological evidence, prevent from a causal interpretation of the increased mortality from liver cirrhosis and brain cancer. The implementation of cohort studies in industrial sites where industrial activities similar to the one here examined are present, are highly recommended.