Lifetime risk of comorbidity in patients with simple congenital heart disease: a Danish nationwide study.

AIMS: In a continuously ageing population of patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), understanding the long-term risk of morbidity is crucial. The aim of this study was to compare the lifetime risks of developing comorbidities in patients with simple CHD and matched controls. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the Danish nationwide registers spanning from 1977 to 2018, simple CHD cases were defined as isolated atrial septal defect (ASD), ventricular septal defect (VSD), pulmonary stenosis, or patent ductus arteriosus in patients surviving until at least 5 years of age. There were 10 controls identified per case. Reported were absolute lifetime risks and lifetime risk differences (between patients with simple CHD and controls) of incident comorbidities stratified by groups and specific cardiovascular comorbidities. Of the included 17 157 individuals with simple CHD, the largest subgroups were ASD (37.7%) and VSD (33.9%), and 52% were females. The median follow-up time for patients with CHD was 21.2 years (interquartile range: 9.4-39.0) and for controls, 19.8 years (9.0-37.0). The lifetime risks for the investigated comorbidities were higher and appeared overall at younger ages for simple CHD compared with controls, except for neoplasms and chronic kidney disease. The lifetime risk difference among the comorbidity groups was highest for neurological disease (male: 15.2%, female: 11.3%), pulmonary disease (male: 9.1%, female: 11.7%), and among the specific comorbidities for stroke (male: 18.9%, female: 11.4%). The overall risk of stroke in patients with simple CHD was mainly driven by ASD (male: 28.9%, female: 17.5%), while the risks of myocardial infarction and heart failure were driven by VSD. The associated lifetime risks of stroke, myocardial infarction, and heart failure in both sexes were smaller in invasively treated patients compared with untreated patients with simple CHD. CONCLUSION: Patients with simple CHD had increased lifetime risks of all comorbidities compared with matched controls, except for neoplasms and chronic kidney disease. These findings highlight the need for increased attention towards early management of comorbidity risk factors.

All-cause mortality among Danish nursing home residents before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nationwide cohort study.

A substantial part of mortality during the COVID-19-pandemic occurred among nursing home residents which caused alarm in many countries. We investigate nursing home mortality in relation to the expected mortality prior to the pandemic. This nationwide register-based study included all 135,501 Danish nursing home residents between 2015 until October 6, 2021. All-cause mortality rates were calculated using a standardization method on sex and age distribution of 2020. Survival probability and lifetime lost for 180 days was calculated using Kaplan Meier estimates. Of 3,587 COVID-19 related deaths, 1137 (32%) occurred among nursing home residents. The yearly all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 person-years in 2015, 2016, and 2017 were 35,301 (95% CI: 34,671-35,943), 34,801 (95% CI: 34,180-35,432), and 35,708 (95% CI: 35,085-36,343), respectively. Slightly elevated mortality rates per 100,000 person-years were seen in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 of 38,268 (95% CI: 37,620-38,929), 36,956 (95% CI: 36,323-37,600), 37,475 (95% CI: 36,838-38,122), and 38,536 (95% CI: 37,798-39,287), respectively. For SARS-CoV-2-infected nursing home residents, lifetime lost difference was 42 days (95% CI: 38-46) in 2020 versus non-infected in 2018. Among vaccinated in 2021, lifetime lost difference was 25 days (95% CI: 18-32) for SARS-CoV-2-infected versus non-infected. Even though a high proportion of COVID-19 fatalities took place in nursing homes and SARS-CoV-2-infection increased the risk of individual death, the annual mortality was only slightly elevated. For future epidemics or pandemics reporting numbers of fatal cases in relation to expected mortality is critical.

Impact of Nationwide COVID-19 Lockdowns on the Implantation Rate of Cardiac Implantable Electronic Devices.

AIM: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a significant decrease in the number of hospital admissions for severe emergent cardiovascular diseases during lockdowns worldwide. This study aimed to determine the impact of both the first and the second Danish nationwide lockdown on the implantation rate of cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs). METHODS: We retrospectively analysed the number of CIED implantations performed in Denmark and stratified them into 3-week intervals. RESULTS: The total number of de novo CIED implantations decreased during the first lockdown by 15.5% and during the second by 5.1%. Comparing each 3-week interval using rate ratios, a significant decrease in the daily rates of the total number of de novo and replacement CIEDs (0.82, 95% CI [0.70, 0.96]), de novo CIEDs only (0.82, 95% CI [0.69, 0.98]), and non-acute pacemaker implantations (0.80, 95% CI [0.63, 0.99]) was observed during the first interval of the first lockdown. During the second lockdown (third interval), a significant decrease was seen in the daily rates of de novo CIEDs (0.73, 95% CI [0.55, 0.97]), and of pacemakers in total during both the second (0.78, 95% CI [0.62, 0.97]) and the third (0.60, 95% CI [0.42, 0.85]) intervals. Additionally, the daily rates of acute pacemaker implantation decreased during the second interval (0.47, 95% CI [0.27, 0.79]) and of non-acute implantation during the third interval (0.57, 95% CI [0.38, 0.84]). A significant increase was observed in the number of replacement procedures during the first interval of the second lockdown (1.70, 95% CI [1.04, 2.85]). CONCLUSIONS: Our study found only modest changes in CIED implantations in Denmark during two national lockdowns.

Household Exposure to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 and Association With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Severity: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Households are high-risk settings for the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is likely associated with the infectious dose of SARS-CoV-2 exposure. We therefore aimed to assess the association between SARS-CoV-2 exposure within households and COVID-19 severity. METHODS: We performed a Danish, nationwide, register-based, cohort study including laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals from 22 February 2020 to 6 October 2020. Household exposure to SARS-CoV-2 was defined as having 1 individual test positive for SARS-CoV-2 within the household. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between "critical COVID-19" within and between households with and without secondary cases. RESULTS: From 15 063 multiperson households, 19 773 SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals were included; 11 632 were categorized as index cases without any secondary household cases; 3431 as index cases with secondary cases, that is, 22.8% of multiperson households; and 4710 as secondary cases. Critical COVID-19 occurred in 2.9% of index cases living with no secondary cases, 4.9% of index cases with secondary cases, and 1.3% of secondary cases. The adjusted hazard ratio for critical COVID-19 among index cases vs secondary cases within the same household was 2.50 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.88-3.34), 2.27 (95% CI, 1.77-2.93) for index cases in households with no secondary cases vs secondary cases, and 1.1 (95% CI, .93-1.30) for index cases with secondary cases vs index cases without secondary cases. CONCLUSIONS: We found no increased hazard ratio of critical COVID-19 among household members of infected SARS-CoV-2 index cases.

Association Between Male Sex and Outcomes of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-A Danish Nationwide, Register-based Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Male sex has been associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. We examined the association between male sex and severe COVID-19 infection and if an increased risk remains after adjustment for age and comorbidities. METHODS: Nationwide register-based follow-up study of COVID-19 patients in Denmark until 16 May 2020. Average risk ratio comparing 30-day composite outcome of all-cause death, severe COVID-19 diagnosis or intensive care unit (ICU) admission for men versus women standardized to the age and comorbidity distribution of all patients were derived from multivariable Cox regression. Included covariates were age, hypertension, diagnoses including obesity, alcohol, sleep apnea, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, previous myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF), atrial fibrillation (AF), stroke, peripheral artery disease, cancer, liver, rheumatic, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). RESULTS: Of 4842 COVID-19 patients, 2281 (47.1%) were men. Median age was 57 [25%-75% 43-73] for men versus 52 [38-71] for women (P < .001); however, octogenarians had equal sex distribution. Alcohol diagnosis, diabetes, hypertension, sleep apnea, prior MI and IHD (all P < .001) as well as AF, stroke, and HF (all P = .01) were more often seen in men, and so was CKD (P = .03). Obesity diagnosis (P < .001) were more often seen in women. Other comorbidity differences were insignificant (P > .05). The fully adjusted average risk ratio was 1.63 [95% CI, 1.44-1.84]. CONCLUSIONS: Men with COVID-19 infection have >50% higher risk of all-cause death, severe COVID-19 infection, or ICU admission than women. The excess risk was not explained by age and comorbidities.

Nationwide cardiovascular disease admission rates during a second COVID-19 lockdown.

Societal lockdowns during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic were associated with decreased admission rates for acute cardiovascular conditions worldwide. In this nationwide Danish study of the first five weeks of a second pandemic lockdown, incidence of new-onset heart failure and atrial fibrillation remained stable, but there was a significant drop in new-onset ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke during the fourth week of lockdown, which normalized promptly. The observed drops were lower compared to the first Danish lockdown in March 2020; thus, our data suggest that declines in acute cardiovascular disease admission rates during future lockdowns are avoidable.

Incidence of acute coronary syndrome during national lock-down: Insights from nationwide data during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Urgent recognition and treatment are needed in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), however this may be difficult during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with a national lock-down. We aimed to examine the incidence of ACS after national lock-down. METHODS: The Danish government announced national lock-down on March 11, 2020 and first phase of reopening was announced on April 6. Using Danish nationwide registries, we identified first-time ACS admissions in (1) January 1 to May 7, 2017-2019, and (2) January 1, 2020 to May 6, 2020. Incidence rates of ACS admissions per week for the 2017 to 2019 period and the 2020 period were computed and incidence rate ratios (IRR) were computed using Poisson regression analysis. RESULTS: The number of ACS admissions were 8,204 (34.6% female, median age 68.3 years) and 2,577 (34.0% female, median age 68.5 years) for the 2017 to 2019- and 2020 period, respectively. No significant differences in IRRs were identified for weeks 1 to 9 (January 1 to March 4) for 2020 compared with week 1 to 9 for 2017 to 2019. In 2020, significant lower IRRs were identified for week 10 (March 5 to 11) IRR = 0.71 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.58 to 0.87), week 11 (12 to 18 March) IRR = 0.68 (0.56 to 0.84), and week 14 (April 2 to April 8) IRR = 0.79 (0.65 to 0.97). No significant differences in IRRs were identified for week 15 to 18 (April 9 to May 6). In subgroup analysis, we identified that the main result was driven by male patients, and patients ≥60 years. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic with an established national lock-down we identified a significant decline around 30% in the incidence of ACS admissions. Along with the reopening of society, ACS admissions were stabilized at levels equal to previous years.

New-onset atrial fibrillation: incidence, characteristics, and related events following a national COVID-19 lockdown of 5.6 million people.

AIM: To determine the incidence, patient characteristics, and related events associated with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) during a national COVID-19 lockdown. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using nationwide Danish registries, we included all patients, aged 18-90 years, receiving a new-onset AF diagnosis during the first 3 months of 2019 and 2020. The main comparison was between patients diagnosed during lockdown (12 March 12-1 April 2020) and patients diagnosed in the corresponding period 1 year previously. We found a lower incidence of new-onset AF during the 3 weeks of lockdown compared with the corresponding weeks in 2019 [incidence rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the 3 weeks: 0.66 (0.56-0.78), 0.53 (0.45-0.64), and 0.41 (0.34-0.50)]. There was a 47% drop in total numbers (562 vs. 1053). Patients diagnosed during lockdown were younger and with a lower CHA2DS2-VASc score, while history of cancer, heart failure, and vascular disease were more prevalent. During lockdown, 30 (5.3%) patients with new-onset AF suffered an ischaemic stroke and 15 (2.7%) died, compared with 45 (4.3%) and 14 (1.3%) patients during the corresponding 2019 period, respectively. The adjusted odds ratio of a related event (ischaemic stroke or all-cause death) during lock-down compared with the corresponding weeks was 1.41 (95% CI 0.93-2.12). CONCLUSIONS: Following a national lockdown in Denmark, a 47% drop in registered new-onset AF cases was observed. In the event of prolonged or subsequent lockdowns, the risk of undiagnosed AF patients developing complications could potentially translate into poorer outcomes in patients with AF during the COVID-19 pandemic.

National all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a Danish registry-based study.

Denmark implemented early widespread social distancing to reduce pressure on the healthcare system from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with the aims to reduce mortality. Unintended consequences might be delays in treatment for other diseases and subsequent mortality. We examined national all-cause mortality comparing weeks 1-27 in 2020 and 2015-2019. This registry-based study used Danish national registry data until 5 July 2020. We examined all-cause mortality rates among all deaths recorded from 2015 to 2020 and among chronic conditions (cardiovascular (cardiac & circulatory), chronic pulmonary, chronic kidney disease, cancer, and diabetes), comparing each week in 2020 to weeks in 2015-2019. In 2020, there were 28,363 deaths in weeks 1-27 (30 December 2019-5 July 2020), the mean deaths in 2015-2019 were 28,630 deaths (standard deviation 784). Compared to previous years, the mortality rate in weeks 3-10 of 2020 was low, peaking in week 14 (17.6 per 100,000 persons in week 9, 19.9 per 100,000 in week 14). Comorbidity prevalence among deceased individuals was similar in 2020 and 2015-2019: 71.1% of all deceased had a prior cardiovascular diagnosis, 30.0% of all deceased had a prior cardiac diagnosis. There were 493 deaths with COVID-19 in weeks 11-27, (59.8% male), and 75.1% had a prior cardiovascular diagnosis. Weekly mortality rates for pre-existing chronic conditions peaked in week 14, and then declined. During the COVID-19 pandemic, due to timely lockdown measures, the mortality rate in Denmark has not increased compared to the mortality rates in the same period during 2015-2019.

Association of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor or Angiotensin Receptor Blocker Use With COVID-19 Diagnosis and Mortality.

IMPORTANCE: It has been hypothesized that angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) may make patients more susceptible to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to worse outcomes through upregulation of the functional receptor of the virus, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether use of ACEI/ARBs was associated with COVID-19 diagnosis and worse outcomes in patients with COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: To examine outcomes among patients with COVID-19, a retrospective cohort study using data from Danish national administrative registries was conducted. Patients with COVID-19 from February 22 to May 4, 2020, were identified using ICD-10 codes and followed up from day of diagnosis to outcome or end of study period (May 4, 2020). To examine susceptibility to COVID-19, a Cox regression model with a nested case-control framework was used to examine the association between use of ACEI/ARBs vs other antihypertensive drugs and the incidence rate of a COVID-19 diagnosis in a cohort of patients with hypertension from February 1 to May 4, 2020. EXPOSURES: ACEI/ARB use was defined as prescription fillings 6 months prior to the index date. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: In the retrospective cohort study, the primary outcome was death, and a secondary outcome was a composite outcome of death or severe COVID-19. In the nested case-control susceptibility analysis, the outcome was COVID-19 diagnosis. RESULTS: In the retrospective cohort study, 4480 patients with COVID-19 were included (median age, 54.7 years [interquartile range, 40.9-72.0]; 47.9% men). There were 895 users (20.0%) of ACEI/ARBs and 3585 nonusers (80.0%). In the ACEI/ARB group, 18.1% died within 30 days vs 7.3% in the nonuser group, but this association was not significant after adjustment for age, sex, and medical history (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.83 [95% CI, 0.67-1.03]). Death or severe COVID-19 occurred in 31.9% of ACEI/ARB users vs 14.2% of nonusers by 30 days (adjusted HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.89-1.23]). In the nested case-control analysis of COVID-19 susceptibility, 571 patients with COVID-19 and prior hypertension (median age, 73.9 years; 54.3% men) were compared with 5710 age- and sex-matched controls with prior hypertension but not COVID-19. Among those with COVID-19, 86.5% used ACEI/ARBs vs 85.4% of controls; ACEI/ARB use compared with other antihypertensive drugs was not significantly associated with higher incidence of COVID-19 (adjusted HR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.80-1.36]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Prior use of ACEI/ARBs was not significantly associated with COVID-19 diagnosis among patients with hypertension or with mortality or severe disease among patients diagnosed as having COVID-19. These findings do not support discontinuation of ACEI/ARB medications that are clinically indicated in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Individual and household exposures associated with cholera transmission in case-control studies: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Uncertainty persists regarding cholera transmission routes. We conducted a structured review of case-control studies on cholera transmission and provide a qualitative summary of reported exposures in order to inform public health efforts and future cholera research. METHODS: We searched two electronic databases for published case-control studies that investigated risk factors for cholera and included any publications that did not match our exclusion criteria. From the included studies, we grouped exposures using two parameters, whether transmission domain was public or domestic, and also on the vehicle of transmission. We extracted data on study location, method of case and control inclusion, type of statistical analysis performed and which exposures were included. Additionally, two parallel subgroup analyses were performed. The first included the subgroup of all studies that used culture-confirmed cholera cases, and the second included the subgroup of all studies employing a multivariate analysis. In the second analysis, we calculated the population attributable risk (PAR). RESULTS: Our search yielded 2347 peer-reviewed publications, of which 65 did not match our exclusion criteria, comprising 69 individual studies. Water-based exposures were investigated in 97% of these studies, of which 70% found a significant association with cholera infection. Food-based exposures were investigated in 75% of studies, of which 63% found a significant association with risk of cholera infection. Close personal contact with cholera cases was investigated in 30% of studies, of which 52% found a significant association with risk of cholera infection. Hygiene-related exposures were investigated in 51% of studies, of which 63% found a significant association with cholera transmission. Among studies that examined at least one exposure related to the domestic domain, 76% found a significant association with cholera infection vs. 71% of studies investigating at least one public domain exposure. The subgroup analyses produced similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Despite strong evidence for cholera transmission via foodborne-, hygiene-, waterborne- and close personal contact-related pathways in both domestic and public domains, we found that non-waterborne-related factors are understudied. Future cholera case-control studies would benefit from investigating all transmission vehicles and transmission domains.

OBJECTIF: L'incertitude persiste quant aux voies de transmission du choléra. Nous avons mené une analyse structurée d'études cas-témoins sur la transmission du choléra et fourni un résumé qualitatif des expositions rapportées afin d'éclairer les efforts de santé publique et les recherches futures sur le choléra. MÉTHODES: Nous avons recherché dans deux bases de données électroniques, des études cas-témoins publiées, portant sur les facteurs de risque du choléra et avons inclus toutes les publications ne correspondant pas à nos critères d'exclusion. Parmi les études incluses, nous avons regroupé les expositions en utilisant deux paramètres, selon que le domaine de transmission soit public ou domestique, ainsi que sur le véhicule de transmission. Nous avons extrait les données sur le lieu de l'étude, la méthode d'inclusion des cas et des témoins, le type d'analyse statistique effectuée et les expositions incluses. En outre, deux analyses parallèles de sous-groupes ont été effectuées. La première comprenait le sous-groupe de toutes les études utilisant des cas de choléra confirmés par culture et la seconde, le sous-groupe de toutes les études utilisant une analyse multivariée. Dans la seconde analyse, nous avons calculé le risque attribuable à la population. RÉSULTATS: Notre recherche a donné 2347 publications revues par des pairs, dont 65 ne correspondaient pas à nos critères d'exclusion et comprenant 69 études individuelles. Les expositions à base d'eau ont été investiguées dans 97% de ces études, parmi lesquelles 70% ont trouvé une association significative avec l'infection par le choléra. Les expositions d'origine alimentaire ont été investiguées dans 75% des études, dont 63% ont montré une association significative avec le risque d'infection par le choléra. Le contact personnel rapproché avec des cas de choléra a été investigué dans 30% des études, parmi lesquelles 52% ont trouvé une association significative avec le risque d'infection par le choléra. Les expositions liées à l'hygiène ont été étudiées dans 51% des études, dont 63% ont montré une association significative avec la transmission du choléra. Parmi les études portant sur au moins une exposition liée au domaine domestique, 76% ont trouvé une association significative avec l'infection par le choléra, contre 71% des études portant sur au moins une exposition du domaine public. Les analyses de sous-groupes ont produit des résultats similaires. CONCLUSIONS: Malgré de solides preuves sur la transmission du choléra par des voies d'origine alimentaire, hygiénique, d'origine hydrique et de contact rapproché, dans les domaines domestique et public, nous avons constaté que les facteurs non liés à l'eau étaient peu étudiés. Les futures études cas-témoins sur le choléra gagneraient à investiguer sur tous les véhicules et tous les domaines de transmission.

Cholera Epidemics of the Past Offer New Insights Into an Old Enemy.

Background: Although cholera is considered the quintessential long-cycle waterborne disease, studies have emphasized the existence of short-cycle (food, household) transmission. We investigated singular Danish cholera epidemics (in 1853) to elucidate epidemiological parameters and modes of spread. Methods: Using time series data from cities with different water systems, we estimated the intrinsic transmissibility (R0). Accessing cause-specific mortality data, we studied clinical severity and age-specific impact. From physicians' narratives we established transmission chains and estimated serial intervals. Results: Epidemics were seeded by travelers from cholera-affected cities; initial transmission chains involving household members and caretakers ensued. Cholera killed 3.4%-8.9% of the populations, with highest mortality among seniors (16%) and lowest in children (2.7%). Transmissibility (R0) was 1.7-2.6 and the serial interval was estimated at 3.7 days (95% confidence interval, 2.9-4.7 days). The case fatality ratio (CFR) was high (54%-68%); using R0 we computed an adjusted CFR of 4%-5%. Conclusions: Short-cycle transmission was likely critical to early secondary transmission in historic Danish towns. The outbreaks resembled the contemporary Haiti outbreak with respect to transmissibility, age patterns, and CFR, suggesting a role for broader hygiene/sanitation interventions to control contemporary outbreaks.

Can Escherichia coli fly? The role of flies as transmitters of E. coli to food in an urban slum in Bangladesh.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the transmission of faecal bacteria by flies to food under natural settings. METHODS: Over a period of 2 months, paired (exposed and non-exposed) containers with cooked rice were placed on the ground in kitchen areas in an urban slum area in Dhaka, Bangladesh, and the numbers of flies landing on the exposed rice were counted. Following exposure, the surface of the rice was microbiologically and molecularly analysed for the presence of Escherichia coli and genes of diarrhoeagenic E. coli and Shigella strains. RESULTS: Rice was at greater risk (P < 0·001) of being contaminated with E. coli if flies landed on the rice than if no flies landed on the rice (odds ratio 5·4 (P < 0·001, 95% CI: 2·5-11·7). Mean contamination in exposed rice samples (n = 60) was 3·1 × 103 CFU/g (95% CI: 2·2 × 103-4·0 × 103). Furthermore, for approximately half of the observed fly landings, the average CFU per fly landing was >0·6 × 103 CFU. Genes of diarrhoeagenic E. coli and Shigella species were detected in 39 of 60 (65%) of exposed rice samples. Two fly species were identified: the common housefly (Musca domestica) and the oriental latrine fly (Chrysomya megacephala). CONCLUSION: Flies may transmit large quantities of E. coli to food under field settings. The findings highlight the importance of implementing control measures to minimise exposure of food to flies to ensure food safety. Fly control measures should be considered for the prevention of diarrhoeal diseases caused by E. coli.

Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake among patients with cardiovascular disease in Denmark, 2017-2019.

BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination protects against morbidity and mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to describe influenza vaccine uptake in patients with CVD in a universal-access healthcare system. METHODS: Using nationwide Danish registries, we included all patients with prevalent CVD, defined as heart failure (HF), atrial fibrillation (AF), ischemic heart disease (IHD), or stroke during three consecutive influenza seasons (October-December 2017-2019). The outcome was relative frequency of influenza vaccination across strata of patient characteristics. RESULTS: There was an average of 397 346 patients with CVD yearly during 2017-2019. Vaccine uptake was 45.6% for the whole population and ranged from 55.0% in AF to 61.8% in HF among patients aged ≥65 years. Among patients aged <65 years, uptake was 32.6% in HF, 19.0% in AF, 21.1% in IHD, and 18.3% in stroke. There was a lower uptake with decreasing age: 21.6% in HF, 5.5% in AF, 7.4% in IHD, and 6.3% in stroke among males aged <45 years, as opposed to 25.5% in HF, 11.5% in AF, 13.8% in IHD, and 12.1% in stroke for males aged 45-54 years. In the further stratified analyses, uptake ranged from a low of 2.5% for males <45 years with AF who were not vaccinated the previous season to a high of 87.0% for females ≥75 years with IHD who were vaccinated the previous season. CONCLUSION: Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake is suboptimal among patients with CVD, even in a universal-access healthcare system with free-of-charge vaccinations. Vaccine uptake was particularly low among young patients.

Age- and sex-specific trends in the incidence of myocardial infarction in Denmark, 2005 to 2021.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Few studies have determined whether the declining incidence of myocardial infarction carries into the current decade, and how it is affected by age and sex. We aimed to determine age- and sex-specific changes in myocardial infarction incidence in Denmark from 2005 through 2021. METHODS: First-time myocardial infarction admissions in adults aged ≥18 years were identified through Danish nationwide registries. Incidence rates per 100,000 persons with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated across calendar year, sex, and age groups (≤49, 50-69, 70-84, ≥85 years). We also presented incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% CIs for 2019-2021 compared to 2005-2007. RESULTS: From January 1, 2005, through August 4, 2021, there were 116,481 incident acute myocardial infarctions in approximately 4.5 million Danes aged ≥18 years. Overall incidence rate of myocardial infarction per 100,000 persons decreased in both sexes from 2005 through 2021 (females: 143 to 80; males: 243 to 174) and across all age groups. The steepest declines in incidence were observed for ages ≥85 years (males: 55%, IRR: 0.45 [0.41-0.49]; females: 58%, IRR: 0.42 [0.39-0.45]) and 70-84 years (males: 46%, IRR: 0.54 [0.52-0.57]; females: 52%, IRR: 0.48 [0.46-0.51]). Rates also declined significantly for ages 50-69 (males: 19%, IRR: 0.81 [0.79-0.84]; females: 17%, IRR: 0.83 [0.78-0.88]) and ≥49 years (males: 30%, IRR: 0.70 [0.64-0.76]; females: 37%, IRR: 0.63 [0.54-0.74]). CONCLUSIONS: Declines in the incidence of myocardial infarction continued into the current decade across age groups and sex. However, significantly steeper absolute and relative declines were observed among the oldest age groups (≥70 years).

The association between cardiovascular disease admission rates and the coronavirus disease 2019 lockdown and reopening of a nation: a Danish nationwide cohort study.

AIMS: To investigate the admission rates of cardiovascular diseases, overall and according to subgroups, and subsequent mortality rates during the coronavirus disease 2019 societal lockdown (12 March 2020) and reopening phase (15 April 2020) in Denmark. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using Danish nationwide registries, we identified patients with a first-time acute cardiovascular admission in two periods: (i) 2 January-16 October 2019 and (ii) 2 January-15 October 2020. Weekly incidence rates of a first-time cardiovascular admission, overall and according to subtypes, in the two periods were calculated. The incidence rate of first-time cardiovascular admissions overall was significantly lower during the first weeks of lockdown in 2020 compared with a similar period in 2019 but increased after the gradual reopening of the Danish society. A similar trend was observed for all subgroups of cardiovascular diseases. The mortality rate among patients admitted after March 12 was not significantly different in 2020 compared with 2019 [mortality rate ratio 0.98; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91-1.06)]. CONCLUSION: In Denmark, we observed a substantial decrease in the rate of acute cardiovascular admissions, overall and according to subtypes, during the first weeks of lockdown. However, after the gradual reopening of the Danish society, the admission rates for acute cardiovascular diseases increased and returned to rates similar to those observed in 2019. The mortality rate in patients admitted with cardiovascular diseases during lockdown was similar to that of patients during the same period in 2019.

Prediction of first cardiovascular disease event in 2.9 million individuals using Danish administrative healthcare data: a nationwide, registry-based derivation and validation study.

Aims: The aim of this study was to derive and validate a risk prediction model with nationwide coverage to predict the individual and population-level risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods and results: All 2.98 million Danish residents aged 30-85 years free of CVD were included on 1 January 2014 and followed through 31 December 2018 using nationwide administrative healthcare registries. Model predictors and outcome were pre-specified. Predictors were age, sex, education, use of antithrombotic, blood pressure-lowering, glucose-lowering, or lipid-lowering drugs, and a smoking proxy of smoking-cessation drug use or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Outcome was 5-year risk of first CVD event, a combination of ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, stroke, or cardiovascular death. Predictions were computed using cause-specific Cox regression models. The final model fitted in the full data was internally-externally validated in each Danish Region. The model was well-calibrated in all regions. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier scores ranged from 76.3% to 79.6% and 3.3 to 4.4. The model was superior to an age-sex benchmark model with differences in AUC and Brier scores ranging from 1.2% to 1.5% and -0.02 to -0.03. Average predicted risks in each Danish municipality ranged from 2.8% to 5.9%. Predicted risks for a 66-year old ranged from 2.6% to 25.3%. Personalized predicted risks across ages 30-85 were presented in an online calculator (https://hjerteforeningen.shinyapps.io/cvd-risk-manuscript/). Conclusion: A CVD risk prediction model based solely on nationwide administrative registry data provided accurate prediction of personal and population-level 5-year first CVD event risk in the Danish population. This may inform clinical and public health primary prevention efforts.