Systems in Flames: Dynamic Coproduction of Social-Ecological Processes.

Ecologists who study human-dominated places have adopted a social-ecological systems framework to recognize the coproduced links between ecological and social processes. However, many social scientists are wary of the way ecologists use the systems concept to represent such links. This wariness is sometimes due to a misunderstanding of the contemporary use of the systems concept in ecology. We aim to overcome this misunderstanding by discussing the contemporary systems concept using refinements from biophysical ecology. These refinements allow the systems concept to be used as a bridge rather than a barrier to social-ecological interaction. We then use recent examples of extraordinary fire to illustrate the usefulness and flexibility of the concept for understanding the dynamism of fire as a social-ecological interaction. The systems idea is a useful interdisciplinary abstraction that can be contextualized to account for societally important problems and dynamics.

Theoretical Perspectives of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study: Conceptual Evolution in a Social-Ecological Research Project.

The Earth's population will become more than 80% urban during this century. This threshold is often regarded as sufficient justification for pursuing urban ecology. However, pursuit has primarily focused on building empirical richness, and urban ecology theory is rarely discussed. The Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES) has been grounded in theory since its inception and its two decades of data collection have stimulated progress toward comprehensive urban theory. Emerging urban ecology theory integrates biology, physical sciences, social sciences, and urban design, probes interdisciplinary frontiers while being founded on textbook disciplinary theories, and accommodates surprising empirical results. Theoretical growth in urban ecology has relied on refined frameworks, increased disciplinary scope, and longevity of interdisciplinary interactions. We describe the theories used by BES initially, and trace ongoing theoretical development that increasingly reflects the hybrid biological-physical-social nature of the Baltimore ecosystem. The specific mix of theories used in Baltimore likely will require modification when applied to other urban areas, but the developmental process, and the key results, will continue to benefit other urban social-ecological research projects.

From urban ecology to urban enquiry: How to build cumulative and context-sensitive understandings.

This paper positions urban ecology as increasingly conversant with multiple perspectives and methods for understanding the functions and qualities of diverse cities and urban situations. Despite progress in the field, we need clear pathways for positioning, connecting and synthesising specific knowledge and to make it speak to more systemic questions about cities and the life within them. These pathways need to be able to make use of diverse sources of information to better account for the diverse relations between people, other species and the ecological, social, cultural, economic, technical and increasingly digital structures that they are embedded in. Grounded in a description of the systemic knowledge needed, we propose five complementary and often connected approaches for building cumulative systemic understandings, and a framework for connecting and combining different methods and evidence. The approaches and the framework help position urban ecology and other fields of study as entry points to further advance interdisciplinary synthesis and open up new fields of research.

Shifting forward: Urban ecology in perspective.

The world has become urban; cities increasingly shape our worldviews, relation to other species, and the large-scale, long-term decisions we make. Cities are nature, but they need to align better with other ecosystems to avoid accelerating climate change and loss of biodiversity. We need a science to guide urban development across the diverse realities of global cities. This need can be met, in part, by shifts in urban ecology and its linkages to related sciences. This perspective is a "synthesis of syntheses", consolidating ideas from the other articles in the Special Section. It re-examines the role of urban ecology, and explores its integration with other disciplines that study cities. We conclude by summarizing the next steps in the ongoing shift in urban ecology, which is fast becoming an integral part of urban studies.

The relational shift in urban ecology: From place and structures to multiple modes of coproduction for positive urban futures.

This perspective emerged from ongoing dialogue among ecologists initiated by a virtual workshop in 2021. A transdisciplinary group of researchers and practitioners conclude that urban ecology as a science can better contribute to positive futures by focusing on relationships, rather than prioritizing urban structures. Insights from other relational disciplines, such as political ecology, governance, urban design, and conservation also contribute. Relationality is especially powerful given the need to rapidly adapt to the changing social and biophysical drivers of global urban systems. These unprecedented dynamics are better understood through a relational lens than traditional structural questions. We use three kinds of coproduction-of the social-ecological world, of science, and of actionable knowledge-to identify key processes of coproduction within urban places. Connectivity is crucial to relational urban ecology. Eight themes emerge from the joint explorations of the paper and point toward social action for improving life and environment in urban futures.

A comparison of three empirically based, spatially explicit predictive models of residential soil Pb concentrations in Baltimore, Maryland, USA: understanding the variability within cities.

In many older US cities, lead (Pb) contamination of residential soil is widespread; however, contamination is not uniform. Empirically based, spatially explicit models can assist city agencies in addressing this important public health concern by identifying areas predicted to exceed public health targets for soil Pb contamination. Sampling of 61 residential properties in Baltimore City using field portable X-ray fluorescence revealed that 53 % had soil Pb that exceeded the USEPA reportable limit of 400 ppm. These data were used as the input to three different spatially explicit models: a traditional general linear model (GLM), and two machine learning techniques: classification and regression trees (CART) and Random Forests (RF). The GLM revealed that housing age, distance to road, distance to building, and the interactions between variables explained 38 % of the variation in the data. The CART model confirmed the importance of these variables, with housing age, distance to building, and distance to major road networks determining the terminal nodes of the CART model. Using the same three predictor variables, the RF model explained 42 % of the variation in the data. The overall accuracy, which is a measure of agreement between the model and an independent dataset, was 90 % for the GLM, 83 % for the CART model, and 72 % for the RF model. A range of spatially explicit models that can be adapted to changing soil Pb guidelines allows managers to select the most appropriate model based on public health targets.

A framework for research on recurrent acute disasters.

Disaster science examines the causes, behaviors, and consequences of hazardous events, from hurricanes to wildfires, flooding, and major industrial accidents. Individual disasters are recurring more frequently and with greater intensity. Recurrent acute disasters (RADs) are sequential disasters that affect a specific locale over time. While disaster science has matured in recent years, understanding of the distinctive characteristics of RADs varies by discipline and lacks predictive power. A theoretical framework is presented by borrowing in part from mathematical topology and disturbance ecology. The recurrent disasters affecting Puerto Rico 2017-2020 are examined as a case example to test the framework. A key variable is the complex characteristics of legacy conditions created by one disaster that influence the effects of subsequent disasters. Substantial improvements in disaster response, recovery, and preparedness can be gained by adopting a RAD-based approach.

Beyond city expansion: multi-scale environmental impacts of urban megaregion formation in China.

Environmental degradation caused by rapid urbanization is a pressing global issue. However, little is known about how urban changes operate and affect environments across multiple scales. Focusing on China, we found urbanization was indeed massive from 2000 to 2015, but it was also very uneven, exhibiting high internal city dynamics. Urban areas in China as a whole became less green, warmer, and had exacerbated PM2.5 pollution. However, environmental impacts differed in newly developed versus older areas of cities. Adverse impacts were prominent in newly urbanized areas, while old urban areas generally showed improved environmental quality. In addition, regional environmental issues are emerging as cities expand, connect and interact to form urban megaregions. To turn urbanization into an opportunity for, rather than an obstacle to, sustainable development, we must move beyond documenting urban expansion to understand the environmental consequences of both internal city dynamics and the formation of urban megaregions.

Nitrate production and availability in residential soils.

The rapid increase in residential land area in the United States has raised concern about water pollution associated with nitrogen fertilizers. Nitrate (NO3-) is the form of reactive N that is most susceptible to leaching and runoff; thus, a more thorough understanding of nitrification and NO3(-) availability is needed if we are to accurately predict the consequences of residential expansion for water quality. In particular, there have been few assessments of how the land use history, housing density, and age of residential soils influence NO3(-) pools and fluxes, especially at depth. In this study, we used 1 m deep soil cores to evaluate potential net nitrification and mineralization, microbial respiration and biomass, and soil NO3(-) and NH4+ pools in 32 residential home lawns that differed by previous land use and age, but had similar soil types. These were compared to eight forested reference sites with similar soils. Our results suggest that a change to residential land use has increased pools and production of reactive N, which has clear implications for water quality in the region. However, the results contradict the common assumption that NO3(-) production and availability is dramatically higher in residential soils than in forests in general. While net nitrification (128.6 +/- 15.5 mg m(-2) d(-1) vs. 4.7 +/- 2.3 mg m(-2) d(-1); mean +/- SE) and exchangeable NO3(-) (3.8 +/- 0.5 g/m2 vs. 0.7 +/- 0.3 g/m2) were significantly higher in residential soils than in forest soils in this study, these measures of NO3(-) production and availability were still notably low, comparable to deciduous forest stands in other studies. A second unexpected result was that current homeowner management practices were not predictive of NO3(-) availability or production. This may reflect the transient availability of inorganic N after fertilizer application. Higher housing density and a history of agricultural land use were predictors of greater NO3(-) availability in residential soils. If these factors are good predictors across a wider range of sites, they may be useful indicators of NO3(-) availability and leaching and runoff potential at the landscape scale.

Preparing interdisciplinary leadership for a sustainable future.

Urgent sustainability challenges require effective leadership for inter- and trans-disciplinary (ITD) institutions. Based on the diverse experiences of 20 ITD institutional leaders and specific case studies, this article distills key lessons learned from multiple pathways to building successful programs. The lessons reflect both the successes and failures our group has experienced, to suggest how to cultivate appropriate and effective leadership, and generate the resources necessary for leading ITD programs. We present two contrasting pathways toward ITD organizations: one is to establish a new organization and the other is to merge existing organizations. We illustrate how both benefit from a real-world focus, with multiple examples of trajectories of ITD organizations. Our diverse international experiences demonstrate ways to cultivate appropriate leadership qualities and skills, especially the ability to create and foster vision beyond the status quo; collaborative leadership and partnerships; shared culture; communications to multiple audiences; appropriate monitoring and evaluation; and perseverance. We identified five kinds of resources for success: (1) intellectual resources; (2) institutional policies; (3) financial resources; (4) physical infrastructure; and (5) governing boards. We provide illustrations based on our extensive experience in supporting success and learning from failure, and provide a framework that articulates the major facets of leadership in inter- and trans-disciplinary organizations: learning, supporting, sharing, and training.

A multiscale analysis of urbanization effects on ecosystem services supply in an urban megaregion.

The rapid and large-scale urbanization leads to drastic land-use conversion and impacts on ecosystem services. The relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services not only depends on the characteristics of the study area, but is closely related to the selected ecosystem services types and the indicators to measure urbanization level. Exploring the relationship in specific study area is necessary to support regional planning for sustainability. In this study, we analyzed the impacts of urbanization on ecosystem services from 2000 to 2010 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban megaregion in China. We quantified four critical ecosystem services, food production, carbon sequestration and oxygen production, water conservation, and soil retention, and identified the hotspots of ecosystem service provision. We measured the urbanization level from three aspects, namely, population growth, economic development and developed land expansion. The impacts of urbanization on the selected ecosystem services were examined at the hotspots scale and urban megaregion scale. We found both ecosystem services and urbanization level in the BTH region increased. There was an obvious spatial heterogeneity in the hotspots of ecosystem services, showing hotspots of food production aggregately distributed in the southern plain while hotspots of regulating services mainly located in the north mountainous areas with dense forest. The relationship between population growth, economic development and food production were represented by an inverse U-shaped curve, while it displayed a decreasing trend with regulating services. Both food production and regulating services decreased dramatically with urban land expansion. Additionally, the relationships between urbanization and ecosystem services were consistent across scales. Effective measures should be implemented for the hotspots of different types of ecosystem services to mitigate the loss of ecosystem services during rapid urbanization. The results can provide insights for enhancing urban sustainability in the BTH region, as well other urban megaregion with similar characteristics throughout the world.

The rapid but "invisible" changes in urban greenspace: A comparative study of nine Chinese cities.

Quantifying the spatial pattern and change of urban greenspace is a prerequisite to understanding the myriad ecosystem services provided by urban greenspace. Previous studies have largely focused on loss of greenspace due to urban expansion, using medium resolution imagery. This paper presents a comparison study on the spatiotemporal patterns of urban greenspace in nine major cities in China, using 2.5m resolution ALOS and SPOT image data collected in 2005 and 2010, respectively. The changes in urban greenspace were further compared with those based on the commonly used 30m Landsat TM data. The results show: 1) Urban greenspace was highly fragmented and heterogeneous, characterized by a mix of a large number of small-sized patches (smaller than 0.1ha) with relatively few dispersed large patches in nine cities. 2) In contrast to findings from previous research that greenspace in inner cities tends to remain largely unchanged, urban greenspace in all nine cities was highly dynamic, experiencing both gain and loss, with net change ranging from 0.51% to 11.26% over five years. Most of the changes in urban greenspace, however, tended to occur as small patches, and could only be revealed by high spatial resolution imagery. 3) Spatial patterns of greenspace varied greatly across cities in terms of patch size, patch and edge density, and shape. Urban greenspace became increasingly fragmented and complex in the southern cities, but the opposite in the northern cities. The high turnover dynamics of urban greenspace in cities proper provide opportunities for better design and planning to achieve urban sustainability, but also call for better protection of small-sized urban greenspaces in Chinese cities.

An optimum city size? The scaling relationship for urban population and fine particulate (PM(2.5)) concentration.

We utilize the distribution of PM2.5 concentration and population in large cities at the global scale to illustrate the relationship between urbanization and urban air quality. We found: 1) The relationship varies greatly among continents and countries. Large cities in North America, Europe, and Latin America have better air quality than those in other continents, while those in China and India have the worst air quality. 2) The relationships between urban population size and PM2.5 concentration in large cities of different continents or countries were different. PM2.5 concentration in large cities in North America, Europe, and Latin America showed little fluctuation or a small increasing trend, but those in Africa and India represent a "U" type relationship and in China represent an inverse "U" type relationship. 3) The potential contribution of population to PM2.5 concentration was higher in the large cities in China and India, but lower in other large cities.

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Water Quality and Its Relationship to Land Use and Land Cover in Beijing, China.

Rapid urbanization with intense land use and land cover (LULC) change and explosive population growth has a great impact on water quality. The relationship between LULC characteristics and water quality provides important information for non-point sources (NPS) pollution management. In this study, we first quantified the spatial-temporal patterns of five water quality variables in four watersheds with different levels of urbanization in Beijing, China. We then examined the effects of LULC on water quality across different scales, using Pearson correlation analysis, redundancy analysis, and multiple regressions. The results showed that water quality was improved over the sampled years but with no significant difference (p > 0.05). However, water quality was significantly different among nonurban and both exurban and urban sites (p < 0.05). Forest land was positively correlated with water quality and affected water quality significantly (p < 0.05) within a 200 m buffer zone. Impervious surfaces, water, and crop land were negatively correlated with water quality. Crop land and impervious surfaces, however, affected water quality significantly (p < 0.05) for buffer sizes greater than 800 m. Grass land had different effects on water quality with the scales. The results provide important insights into the relationship between LULC and water quality, and thus for controlling NPS pollution in urban areas.

The effects of the urban built environment on the spatial distribution of lead in residential soils.

Lead contamination of urban residential soils is a public health concern. Consequently, there is a need to delineate hotspots in the landscape to identify risk and facilitate remediation. Land use is a good predictor of some environmental pollutants. However, in the case of soil lead, research has shown that land use is not a useful proxy. We hypothesize that soil lead is related to both individual landscape features at the parcel scale and the landscape context in which parcels are embedded. We sampled soil lead on 61 residential parcels in Baltimore, Maryland using field-portable x-ray fluorescence. Thirty percent of parcels had average lead concentrations that exceeded the USEPA limit of 400 ppm and 53% had at least one reading that exceeded 400 ppm. Results indicate that soil lead is strongly associated with housing age, distance to roadways, and on a parcel scale, distance to built structures.

Predicting opportunities for greening and patterns of vegetation on private urban lands.

This paper examines predictors of vegetative cover on private lands in Baltimore, Maryland. Using high-resolution spatial data, we generated two measures: "possible stewardship," which is the proportion of private land that does not have built structures on it and hence has the possibility of supporting vegetation, and "realized stewardship," which is the proportion of possible stewardship land upon which vegetation is growing. These measures were calculated at the parcel level and averaged by US Census block group. Realized stewardship was further defined by proportion of tree canopy and grass. Expenditures on yard supplies and services, available by block group, were used to help understand where vegetation condition appears to be the result of current activity, past legacies, or abandonment. PRIZM market segmentation data were tested as categorical predictors of possible and realized stewardship and yard expenditures. PRIZM segmentations are hierarchically clustered into 5, 15, and 62 categories, which correspond to population density, social stratification (income and education), and lifestyle clusters, respectively. We found that PRIZM 15 best predicted variation in possible stewardship and PRIZM 62 best predicted variation in realized stewardship. These results were further analyzed by regressing each dependent variable against a set of continuous variables reflective of each of the three PRIZM groupings. Housing age, vacancy, and population density were found to be critical determinants of both stewardship metrics. A number of lifestyle factors, such as average family size, marriage rates, and percentage of single-family detached homes, were strongly related to realized stewardship. The percentage of African Americans by block group was positively related to realized stewardship but negatively related to yard expenditures.

Probability of tree seedling establishment changes across a forest-old field edge gradient.

Forest edges affect many aspects of plant communities, causing changes in microclimate, species composition, and community structure. However, the direct role of edges in regulating forest regeneration is relatively unknown. The pattern of tree establishment across a forest-old field edge was experimentally examined to determine the response of three tree species to the edge gradient. We placed 100 1-m(2) plots in a 90 × 90 m grid that began 30 m inside the forest, extended across the edge, and ended at 60 m into the old field. Into each plot, we planted seeds of Acer rubrum, Acer saccharum, and Quercus palustris. Emergence increased with distance into the field for both A. saccharum and Q. palustris. Emergence for A. rubrum increased from forest to field, reaching a maximum near 20 m into the field, and then declined with further distance. Nearly all A. rubrum seedlings died shortly after emergence. Survival of A. saccharum increased with distance into the old field, while survivorship of Q. palustris did not respond to the edge gradient. Establishment probabilities increased with distance into the old field for both A. saccharum and Q. palustris. Growth of Q. palustris and allocation patterns of A. saccharum also varied across the edge gradient. These results suggest that edges have complex, species-specific effects on tree establishment and growth that can influence the spatial pattern and species composition of regenerating forests.