Rise and fall of HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy: a long-term survey from the ITA.LI.CA centres.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the leading aetiological factor of HCC in the western world where, overall, its incidence is increasing, despite data suggesting an initial drop in some areas. The aim of this study was to evaluate epidemiology, clinical features and survival of HCV-related HCC (HCV-HCC) in a wide time range in Italy. METHODS: Multicentre retrospective study including 3695 patients prospectively recruited by the ITA.LI.CA group. Patients were classified into three subgroups according to aetiology (Group A[GA], pure HCV; Group B[GB], HCV + cofactors; and Group C[GC], non-HCV) and in 5 time cohorts (5 years each), according to the year of diagnosis. Age, gender, Child-Pugh score, modality of diagnosis, stage, presence of thrombosis/metastases, type of treatment and survival were analysed. RESULTS: A total of 1801 GA patients, 445 GB and 1333 GC were recruited. The number of GA patients peaked in the 1996-2000, gradually dropping thereafter (P < 0.0001), as observed for GB (P < 0.0001). Age at diagnosis increased (P < 0.0001), while percentage of patients diagnosed during surveillance and stage improved only in GA (P = 0.02 and P = 0.003 respectively). The survival significantly increased over time particularly in GA (median 37 months) and was longer in GA than in GB and GC (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of HCC-HCV is decreasing in Italy since 2001. HCV-HCC patients are older, more frequently diagnosed under surveillance and in an earlier stage. HCC survival improved in the last 15 years and is significantly higher in patients with HCV-HCC. We therefore expect a further drop in both incidence and mortality for HCV-HCC in the years to come.

Cost-effectiveness of semi-annual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients of the Italian Liver Cancer population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It was recently shown that semi-annual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhotic patients provides a prognostic advantage over the annual program; however, its cost-effectiveness (CE) in the general cirrhotic population still needs to be defined. METHODS: A Markov model was built to compare CE of these two strategies, considering literature results and treatment modalities of 918 cirrhotic patients from the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database. RESULTS: Results from the Markov model suggest that, compared to annual surveillance, semi-annual surveillance leads to a gain in quality-adjusted life expectancy, in an unselected cirrhotic population, of 1.35 quality-adjusted life-months (QALMs) over 10 years since surveillance start in compensated patients, and of 0.73 QALMs in decompensated patients. Semi-annual surveillance was more cost-effective in compensated than in decompensated cirrhosis, with an incremental CE ratio (ICER) of 1997 and 3814€/QALM, respectively. In compensated cirrhosis, semi-annual surveillance was more cost-effective than the annual program when the annual HCC incidence was ≥3.2% and the relative survival gain after cancer diagnosis was ≥20% with respect to the annual program. In decompensated cirrhosis, semi-annual surveillance was cost-effective in patients amenable to liver transplantation. In both groups, CE of semi-annual surveillance improved with the increase of annual incidence and the survival benefit obtainable with HCC treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Both surveillance strategies for HCC in cirrhotic patients can be recommended, according to the individual risk profile for HCC occurrence and the expected survival gain obtainable after tumor diagnosis and therapy.

Renal safety in 3264 HCV patients treated with DAA-based regimens: Results from a large Italian real-life study.

BACKGROUND: Sofosbuvir (SOF)-based regimens have been associated with renal function worsening in HCV patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤ 45 ml/min, but further investigations are lacking. AIM: To assess renal safety in a large cohort of DAA-treated HCV patients with any chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: All HCV patients treated with DAA in Lombardy (December 2014-November 2017) with available kidney function tests during and off-treatment were included. RESULTS: Among 3264 patients [65% males, 67% cirrhotics, eGFR 88 (9-264) ml/min], CKD stage was 3 in 9.5% and 4/5 in 0.7%. 79% and 73% patients received SOF and RBV, respectively. During DAA, eGFR declined in CKD-1 (p < 0.0001) and CKD-2 (p = 0.0002) patients, with corresponding rates of CKD stage reduction of 25% and 8%. Conversely, eGFR improved in lower CKD stages (p < 0.0001 in CKD-3a, p = 0.0007 in CKD-3b, p = 0.024 in CKD-4/5), with 33-45% rates of CKD improvement. Changes in eGFR and CKD distribution persisted at SVR. Baseline independent predictors of CKD worsening at EOT and SVR were age (p < 0.0001), higher baseline CKD stages (p < 0.0001) and AH (p = 0.010 and p < 0.0001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: During DAA, eGFR significantly declined in patients with preserved renal function and improved in those with lower CKD stages, without reverting upon drug discontinuation.