A decline in global CFC-11 emissions during 2018-2019.

The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) has been in decline since the production of ozone-depleting substances was phased out under the Montreal Protocol1,2. Since 2013, the concentration decline of CFC-11 slowed unexpectedly owing to increasing emissions, probably from unreported production, which, if sustained, would delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer1-12. Here we report an accelerated decline in the global mean CFC-11 concentration during 2019 and 2020, derived from atmospheric concentration measurements at remote sites around the world. We find that global CFC-11 emissions decreased by 18 ± 6 gigagrams per year (26 ± 9 per cent; one standard deviation) from 2018 to 2019, to a 2019 value (52 ± 10 gigagrams per year) that is similar to the 2008-2012 mean. The decline in global emissions suggests a substantial decrease in unreported CFC-11 production. If the sharp decline in unexpected global emissions and unreported production is sustained, any associated future ozone depletion is likely to be limited, despite an increase in the CFC-11 bank (the amount of CFC-11 produced, but not yet emitted) by 90 to 725 gigagrams by the beginning of 2020.

An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11.

The Montreal Protocol was designed to protect the stratospheric ozone layer by enabling reductions in the abundance of ozone-depleting substances such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere1-3. The reduction in the atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) has made the second-largest contribution to the decline in the total atmospheric concentration of ozone-depleting chlorine since the 1990s 1 . However, CFC-11 still contributes one-quarter of all chlorine reaching the stratosphere, and a timely recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer depends on a sustained decline in CFC-11 concentrations 1 . Here we show that the rate of decline of atmospheric CFC-11 concentrations observed at remote measurement sites was constant from 2002 to 2012, and then slowed by about 50 per cent after 2012. The observed slowdown in the decline of CFC-11 concentration was concurrent with a 50 per cent increase in the mean concentration difference observed between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and also with the emergence of strong correlations at the Mauna Loa Observatory between concentrations of CFC-11 and other chemicals associated with anthropogenic emissions. A simple model analysis of our findings suggests an increase in CFC-11 emissions of 13 ± 5 gigagrams per year (25 ± 13 per cent) since 2012, despite reported production being close to zero 4 since 2006. Our three-dimensional model simulations confirm the increase in CFC-11 emissions, but indicate that this increase may have been as much as 50 per cent smaller as a result of changes in stratospheric processes or dynamics. The increase in emission of CFC-11 appears unrelated to past production; this suggests unreported new production, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global CFC production by 2010.

Efficient transport of tropospheric aerosol into the stratosphere via the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone.

An enhanced aerosol layer near the tropopause over Asia during the June-September period of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) was recently identified using satellite observations. Its sources and climate impact are presently not well-characterized. To improve understanding of this phenomenon, we made in situ aerosol measurements during summer 2015 from Kunming, China, then followed with a modeling study to assess the global significance. The in situ measurements revealed a robust enhancement in aerosol concentration that extended up to 2 km above the tropopause. A climate model simulation demonstrates that the abundant anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions from Asia coupled with rapid vertical transport associated with monsoon convection leads to significant particle formation in the upper troposphere within the ASM anticyclone. These particles subsequently spread throughout the entire Northern Hemispheric (NH) lower stratosphere and contribute significantly (∼15%) to the NH stratospheric column aerosol surface area on an annual basis. This contribution is comparable to that from the sum of small volcanic eruptions in the period between 2000 and 2015. Although the ASM contribution is smaller than that from tropical upwelling (∼35%), we find that this region is about three times as efficient per unit area and time in populating the NH stratosphere with aerosol. With a substantial amount of organic and sulfur emissions in Asia, the ASM anticyclone serves as an efficient smokestack venting aerosols to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. As economic growth continues in Asia, the relative importance of Asian emissions to stratospheric aerosol is likely to increase.

Efficient In-Cloud Removal of Aerosols by Deep Convection.

Convective systems dominate the vertical transport of aerosols and trace gases. The most recent in situ aerosol measurements presented here show that the concentrations of primary aerosols including sea salt and black carbon drop by factors of 10 to 10,000 from the surface to the upper troposphere. In this study we show that the default convective transport scheme in the National Science Foundation/Department of Energy Community Earth System Model results in a high bias of 10-1,000 times the measured aerosol mass for black carbon and sea salt in the middle and upper troposphere. A modified transport scheme, which considers aerosol activation from entrained air above the cloud base and aerosol-cloud interaction associated with convection, dramatically improves model agreement with in situ measurements suggesting that deep convection can efficiently remove primary aerosols. We suggest that models that fail to consider secondary activation may overestimate black carbon's radiative forcing by a factor of 2.

A post-Kyoto partner: considering the stratospheric ozone regime as a tool to manage nitrous oxide.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the largest known remaining anthropogenic threat to the stratospheric ozone layer. However, it is currently only regulated under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol because of its simultaneous ability to warm the climate. The threat N2O poses to the stratospheric ozone layer, coupled with the uncertain future of the international climate regime, motivates our exploration of issues that could be relevant to the Parties to the ozone regime (the 1985 Vienna Convention and its 1987 Montreal Protocol) should they decide to take measures to manage N2O in the future. There are clear legal avenues to regulate N2O under the ozone regime as well as several ways to share authority with the existing and future international climate treaties. N2O mitigation strategies exist to address the most significant anthropogenic sources, including agriculture, where behavioral practices and new technologies could contribute significantly to reducing emissions. Existing policies managing N2O and other forms of reactive nitrogen could be harnessed and built on by the ozone regime to implement N2O controls. There are several challenges and potential cobenefits to N2O control which we discuss here: food security, equity, and implications of the nitrogen cascade. The possible inclusion of N2O in the ozone regime need not be viewed as a sign of failure of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to adequately deal with climate change. Rather, it could represent an additional valuable tool in sustainable development diplomacy.

Temperature dependence of the Cl atom reaction with deuterated methanes.

Kinetic isotope effect (KIE) and reaction rate coefficients, k1-k4, for the gas-phase reaction of Cl atoms with (12)CH3D (k1), (12)CH2D2 (k2), (12)CHD3 (k3), and (12)CD4 (k4) over the temperature range 223-343 K in 630 Torr of synthetic air are reported. Rate coefficients were measured using a relative rate technique with (12)CH4 as the primary reference compound. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy was used to monitor the methane isotopologue loss. The obtained KIE values were (12)CH3D: KIE1(T) = (1.227 ± 0.004) exp((43 ± 5)/T); (12)CH2D2: KIE2(T) = (1.14 ± 0.20) exp((191 ± 60)/T); (12)CHD3: KIE3(T) = (1.73 ± 0.34) exp((229 ± 60)/T); and (12)CD4: KIE4(T) = (1.01 ± 0.3) exp((724 ± 19)/T), where KIEx(T) = kCl+(12)CH4(T)/kx(T). The quoted uncertainties are at the 2σ (95% confidence) level and represent the precision of our data. The following Arrhenius expressions and 295 K rate coefficient values (in units of cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) were derived from the above KIE using a rate coefficient of 7.3 × 10(-12) exp(-1280/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for the reaction of Cl with (12)CH4: k1(T) = (5.95 ± 0.70) × 10(-12) exp(-(1323 ± 50)/T), k1(295 K) = (6.7 ± 0.8) × 10(-14); k2(T) = (6.4 ± 1.3) × 10(-12) exp(-(1471 ± 60)/T), k2(295 K) = (4.4 ± 0.9) × 10(-14); k3(T) = (4.2 ± 1.0) × 10(-12) exp(-(1509 ± 60)/T), k3(295 K) = (2.53 ± 0.6) × 10(-14); and k4(T) = (7.13 ± 2.3) × 10(-12) exp(-(2000 ± 120)/T), k4(295 K) = (0.81 ± 0.26) × 10(-14). The reported uncertainties in the pre-exponential factors are 2σ and include estimated systematic errors in our measurements and the uncertainty in the reference reaction rate coefficient. The results from this study are compared with previously reported room-temperature rate coefficients for each of the deuterated methanes as well as the available temperature dependent data for the Cl atom reactions with CH3D and CD4. A two-dimensional atmospheric chemistry model was used to examine the implications of the present results to the atmospheric lifetime and vertical variation in the loss of the deuterated methane isotopologues. The relative contributions of the reactions of OH, Cl, and O((1)D) to the loss of the isotopologues in the stratosphere were also examined. The results of the calculations are described and discussed.

Considering intentional stratospheric dehydration for climate benefits.

We introduce a climate intervention strategy focused on decreasing water vapor (WV) concentrations near the tropopause and in the stratosphere to increase outbound longwave radiation. The mechanism is the targeted injection of ice-nucleating particles (INP) in air supersaturated with respect to ice at high altitudes in the tropical entryway to the stratosphere. Ice formation in this region is a critical control of stratospheric WV. Recent airborne in situ data indicate that targeting only a small fraction of air parcels in the region would be sufficient to achieve substantial removal of water. This "intentional stratospheric dehydration" (ISD) strategy would not counteract a large fraction of the forcing from carbon dioxide but may contribute to a portfolio of climate interventions by acting with different time and length scales of impact and risk than other interventions that are already under consideration. We outline the idea, its plausibility, technical hurdles, and side effects to be considered.

1,2-Dichlorohexafluoro-cyclobutane (1,2-c-C4F6Cl2, R-316c) a potent ozone depleting substance and greenhouse gas: atmospheric loss processes, lifetimes, and ozone depletion and global warming potentials for the (E) and (Z) stereoisomers.

The atmospheric processing of (E)- and (Z)-1,2-dichlorohexafluoro-cyclobutane (1,2-c-C4F6Cl2, R-316c) was examined in this work as the ozone depleting (ODP) and global warming (GWP) potentials of this proposed replacement compound are presently unknown. The predominant atmospheric loss processes and infrared absorption spectra of the R-316c isomers were measured to provide a basis to evaluate their atmospheric lifetimes and, thus, ODPs and GWPs. UV absorption spectra were measured between 184.95 to 230 nm at temperatures between 214 and 296 K and a parametrization for use in atmospheric modeling is presented. The Cl atom quantum yield in the 193 nm photolysis of R-316c was measured to be 1.90 ± 0.27. Hexafluorocyclobutene (c-C4F6) was determined to be a photolysis co-product with molar yields of 0.7 and 1.0 (±10%) for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c, respectively. The 296 K total rate coefficient for the O((1)D) + R-316c reaction, i.e., O((1)D) loss, was measured to be (1.56 ± 0.11) × 10(-10) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and the reactive rate coefficient, i.e., R-316c loss, was measured to be (1.36 ± 0.20) × 10(-10) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) corresponding to a ~88% reactive yield. Rate coefficient upper-limits for the OH and O3 reaction with R-316c were determined to be <2.3 × 10(-17) and <2.0 × 10(-22) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), respectively, at 296 K. The quoted uncertainty limits are 2σ and include estimated systematic errors. Local and global annually averaged lifetimes for the (E)- and (Z)-R-316c isomers were calculated using a 2-D atmospheric model to be 74.6 ± 3 and 114.1 ± 10 years, respectively, where the estimated uncertainties are due solely to the uncertainty in the UV absorption spectra. Stratospheric photolysis is the predominant atmospheric loss process for both isomers with the O((1)D) reaction making a minor, ~2% for the (E) isomer and 7% for the (Z) isomer, contribution to the total atmospheric loss. Ozone depletion potentials for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c were calculated using the 2-D model to be 0.46 and 0.54, respectively. Infrared absorption spectra for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c were measured at 296 K and used to estimate their radiative efficiencies (REs) and GWPs; 100-year time-horizon GWPs of 4160 and 5400 were obtained for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c, respectively. Both isomers of R-316c are shown in this work to be long-lived ozone depleting substances and potent greenhouse gases.

Rapid ozone depletion after humidification of the stratosphere by the Hunga Tonga Eruption.

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on 15 January 2022 offered a good opportunity to explore the early impacts of tropical volcanic eruptions on stratospheric composition. Balloon-borne observations near Réunion Island revealed the unprecedented amount of water vapor injected by the volcano. The enhanced stratospheric humidity, radiative cooling, and expanded aerosol surface area in the volcanic plume created the ideal conditions for swift ozone depletion of 5% in the tropical stratosphere in just 1 week. The decrease in hydrogen chloride by 0.4 parts per million by volume (ppbv) and the increase in chlorine monoxide by 0.4 ppbv provided compelling evidence for chlorine activation within the volcanic plume. This study enhances our understanding of the effect of this unusual volcanic eruption on stratospheric chemistry and provides insights into possible chemistry changes that may occur in a changing climate.

Heterogeneous interaction of N2O5 with HCl doped H2SO4 under stratospheric conditions: ClNO2 and Cl2 yields.

The reaction of dinitrogen pentoxide, N2O5, with hydrogen chloride, HCl, in sulfuric acid solutions was studied at temperatures and compositions relevant to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere. Experiments were performed using a rotating wetted wall flow tube reactor coupled to a chemical ionization mass spectrometer for the gas-phase detection of reactants (N2O5 and HCl) and products (nitryl chloride, ClNO2, and Cl2) using I­ as the reagent ion. Uptake coefficients, γ, were measured under stratospheric conditions: 205 < T < 225 K; 50 and 60 wt % H2SO4 solutions; 5.8 × 10(­5) < [HCl]liq < 0.1 M. Uptake coefficients of N2O5 on pure H2SO4/H2O (50 and 60 wt % H2SO4) and HCl-doped H2SO4 were found to be independent of temperature and sulfuric acid composition (weight percent of H2SO4 and HCl concentration) consistent with previous studies. ClNO2 was observed to be a major gas-phase product with its yield strongly dependent on the liquid-phase HCl concentration (5.8 × 10(­5) to 0.1 M HCl) and with a maximum yield of nearly unity at 0.005 M HCl in both 50 and 60 wt % sulfuric acid solutions. The Cl2 yield was <1% under all conditions studied. ClNO2 production was attributed to the heterogeneous reaction of NO2(+)(aq), or H2NO3(+)(aq) (formed in the dissociative ionization of N2O5), with Cl­. The variation of the ClNO2 yield with HCl concentration was attributed to the competition between the reaction of NO2(+)(aq), or H2NO3(+)(aq) with Cl­ and H2O. Using our measured yields as a function of HCl concentrations in 50 and 60 wt % H2SO4 solutions at different temperatures, we calculated the variation of the ClNO2 yield under stratospheric conditions. The atmospheric implications of these findings were examined using a 2D atmospheric model. The contribution of this chemistry to ozone depletion was found to be a minor process under nonvolcanic background aerosol levels.

Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change, temperatures, and precipitation across the United States.

Changes in climate during the 20th century differ from region to region across the United States. We provide strong evidence that spatial variations in US temperature trends are linked to the hydrologic cycle, and we also present unique information on the seasonal and latitudinal structure of the linkage. We show that there is a statistically significant inverse relationship between trends in daily temperature and average daily precipitation across regions. This linkage is most pronounced in the southern United States (30-40 degrees N) during the May-June time period and, to a lesser extent, in the northern United States (40-50 degrees N) during the July-August time period. It is strongest in trends in maximum temperatures (T(max)) and 90th percentile exceedance trends (90PET), and less pronounced in the T(max) 10PET and the corresponding T(min) statistics, and it is robust to changes in analysis period. Although previous studies suggest that areas of increased precipitation may have reduced trends in temperature compared with drier regions, a change in sign from positive to negative trends suggests some additional cause. We show that trends in precipitation may account for some, but not likely all, of the cause point to evidence that shows that dynamical patterns (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, etc.) cannot account for the observed effects during May-June. We speculate that changing aerosols, perhaps related to vegetation changes, and increased strength of the aerosol direct and indirect effect may play a role in the observed linkages between these indices of temperature change and the hydrologic cycle.

Black carbon lofts wildfire smoke high into the stratosphere to form a persistent plume.

In 2017, western Canadian wildfires injected smoke into the stratosphere that was detectable by satellites for more than 8 months. The smoke plume rose from 12 to 23 kilometers within 2 months owing to solar heating of black carbon, extending the lifetime and latitudinal spread. Comparisons of model simulations to the rate of observed lofting indicate that 2% of the smoke mass was black carbon. The observed smoke lifetime in the stratosphere was 40% shorter than calculated with a standard model that does not consider photochemical loss of organic carbon. Photochemistry is represented by using an empirical ozone-organics reaction probability that matches the observed smoke decay. The observed rapid plume rise, latitudinal spread, and photochemical reactions provide new insights into potential global climate impacts from nuclear war.

Southeast Atmosphere Studies: learning from model-observation syntheses.

Concentrations of atmospheric trace species in the United States have changed dramatically over the past several decades in response to pollution control strategies, shifts in domestic energy policy and economics, and economic development (and resulting emission changes) elsewhere in the world. Reliable projections of the future atmosphere require models to not only accurately describe current atmospheric concentrations, but to do so by representing chemical, physical and biological processes with conceptual and quantitative fidelity. Only through incorporation of the processes controlling emissions and chemical mechanisms that represent the key transformations among reactive molecules can models reliably project the impacts of future policy, energy and climate scenarios. Efforts to properly identify and implement the fundamental and controlling mechanisms in atmospheric models benefit from intensive observation periods, during which collocated measurements of diverse, speciated chemicals in both the gas and condensed phases are obtained. The Southeast Atmosphere Studies (SAS, including SENEX, SOAS, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS) conducted during the summer of 2013 provided an unprecedented opportunity for the atmospheric modeling community to come together to evaluate, diagnose and improve the representation of fundamental climate and air quality processes in models of varying temporal and spatial scales. This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models. The effort focused primarily on model representation of fundamental atmospheric processes that are essential to the formation of ozone, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and other trace species in the troposphere, with the ultimate goal of understanding the radiative impacts of these species in the southeast and elsewhere. Here we address questions surrounding four key themes: gas-phase chemistry, aerosol chemistry, regional climate and chemistry interactions, and natural and anthropogenic emissions. We expect this review to serve as a guidance for future modeling efforts.

Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming.

Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10% after the year 2000. Here we show that this acted to slow the rate of increase in global surface temperature over 2000-2009 by about 25% compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. More limited data suggest that stratospheric water vapor probably increased between 1980 and 2000, which would have enhanced the decadal rate of surface warming during the 1990s by about 30% as compared to estimates neglecting this change. These findings show that stratospheric water vapor is an important driver of decadal global surface climate change.

Nitrous oxide (N2O): the dominant ozone-depleting substance emitted in the 21st century.

By comparing the ozone depletion potential-weighted anthropogenic emissions of N2O with those of other ozone-depleting substances, we show that N2O emission currently is the single most important ozone-depleting emission and is expected to remain the largest throughout the 21st century. N2O is unregulated by the Montreal Protocol. Limiting future N2O emissions would enhance the recovery of the ozone layer from its depleted state and would also reduce the anthropogenic forcing of the climate system, representing a win-win for both ozone and climate.

Contrasts between Antarctic and Arctic ozone depletion.

This work surveys the depth and character of ozone depletion in the Antarctic and Arctic using available long balloon-borne and ground-based records that cover multiple decades from ground-based sites. Such data reveal changes in the range of ozone values including the extremes observed as polar air passes over the stations. Antarctic ozone observations reveal widespread and massive local depletion in the heart of the ozone "hole" region near 18 km, frequently exceeding 90%. Although some ozone losses are apparent in the Arctic during particular years, the depth of the ozone losses in the Arctic are considerably smaller, and their occurrence is far less frequent. Many Antarctic total integrated column ozone observations in spring since approximately the 1980s show values considerably below those ever observed in earlier decades. For the Arctic, there is evidence of some spring season depletion of total ozone at particular stations, but the changes are much less pronounced compared with the range of past data. Thus, the observations demonstrate that the widespread and deep ozone depletion that characterizes the Antarctic ozone hole is a unique feature on the planet.

Airborne observations of vegetation and implications for biogenic emission characterization.

Measuring hydrocarbons from aircraft represents one way to infer biogenic emissions at the surface. The focus of this paper is to show that complementary remote sensing information can be provided by optical measurements of a vegetation index, which is readily measured with high temporal coverage using reflectance data. We examine the similarities between the vegetation index and in situ measurements of the chemicals isoprene, methacrolein, and alpha-pinene to estimate whether the temporal behavior of the in situ measurements of these chemicals could be better understood by the addition of the vegetation index. Data were compared for flights conducted around Houston in August and September 2000. The three independent sets of chemical measurements examined correspond reasonably well with the vegetation index curves for the majority of flight days. While low values of the vegetation index always correspond to low values of the in situ chemical measurements, high values of the index correspond to both high and low values of the chemical measurements. In this sense it represents an upper limit when compared with in situ data (assuming the calibration constant is adequately chosen). This result suggests that while the vegetation index cannot represent a purely predictive quantity for the in situ measurements, it represents a complementary measurement that can be useful in understanding comparisons of various in situ observations, particularly when these observations occur with relatively low temporal frequency. In situ isoprene measurements and the vegetation index were also compared to an isoprene emission inventory to provide additional insight on broad issues relating to the use of vegetation indices in emission database development.