Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world.

Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial times1. However, fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy system and a sharp decline in their use must be realized to keep the temperature increase below 1.5 °C (refs. 2-7). Here we use a global energy systems model8 to assess the amount of fossil fuels that would need to be left in the ground, regionally and globally, to allow for a 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. By 2050, we find that nearly 60 per cent of oil and fossil methane gas, and 90 per cent of coal must remain unextracted to keep within a 1.5 °C carbon budget. This is a large increase in the unextractable estimates for a 2 °C carbon budget9, particularly for oil, for which an additional 25 per cent of reserves must remain unextracted. Furthermore, we estimate that oil and gas production must decline globally by 3 per cent each year until 2050. This implies that most regions must reach peak production now or during the next decade, rendering many operational and planned fossil fuel projects unviable. We probably present an underestimate of the production changes required, because a greater than 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 °C requires more carbon to stay in the ground and because of uncertainties around the timely deployment of negative emission technologies at scale.

DLX1 and the NuRD complex cooperate in enhancer decommissioning and transcriptional repression.

In the developing subpallium, the fate decision between neurons and glia is driven by expression of Dlx1/2 or Olig1/2, respectively, two sets of transcription factors with a mutually repressive relationship. The mechanism by which Dlx1/2 repress progenitor and oligodendrocyte fate, while promoting transcription of genes needed for differentiation, is not fully understood. We identified a motif within DLX1 that binds RBBP4, a NuRD complex subunit. ChIP-seq studies of genomic occupancy of DLX1 and six different members of the NuRD complex show that DLX1 and NuRD colocalize to putative regulatory elements enriched near other transcription factor genes. Loss of Dlx1/2 leads to dysregulation of genome accessibility at putative regulatory elements near genes repressed by Dlx1/2, including Olig2. Consequently, heterozygosity of Dlx1/2 and Rbbp4 leads to an increase in the production of OLIG2+ cells. These findings highlight the importance of the interplay between transcription factors and chromatin remodelers in regulating cell-fate decisions.

An eggshell-localised annexin plays a key role in the coordination of the life cycle of a plant-parasitic nematode with its host.

Host-specific plant pathogens must coordinate their life cycles with the availability of a host plant. Although this is frequently achieved through a response to specific chemical cues derived from the host plant, little is known about the molecular basis of the response to such cues and how these are used to trigger activation of the life cycle. In host-specific plant-parasitic cyst nematodes, unhatched juvenile nematodes lie dormant in the eggshell until chemical cues from a suitable host plant are detected and the hatching process is initiated. The molecular mechanisms by which hatch is linked to the presence of these chemical cues is unknown. We have identified a novel annexin-like protein that is localised to the eggshell of the potato cyst nematode Globodera rostochiensis. This annexin is unique in having a short peptide insertion that structural modelling predicts is present in one of the calcium-binding sites of this protein. Host-induced gene silencing of the annexin impacts the ability of the nematode to regulate and control permeability of the eggshell. We show that in the presence of the chemicals that induce hatching annexin lipid binding capabilities change, providing the first molecular link between a nematode eggshell protein and host-derived cues. This work demonstrates how a protein from a large family has been recruited to play a critical role in the perception of the presence of a host and provides a new potential route for control of cyst nematodes that impact global food production.

Firearm Mortality of Non-Hispanic Black Americans by Law Enforcement, 2011-2020.

Law enforcement officers in the U.S. are more likely to use lethal force against non-Hispanic Black citizens than on their non-Hispanic White counterparts. The purpose of this study was to assess estimates of the national prevalence of fatal firearm violence by law enforcement officers (LEOs) against non-Hispanic Black Americans. The Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were analyzed using descriptive statistics and joinpoint regression from 2011 to 2020. During the decade (2011-2020) LEOs fatally shot 5,073 citizens and 1,170 were non-Hispanic Black (23%). The vast majority (96%) were males and two-thirds (66%) of those killed were ages 20-39 years. The region with the highest number of LEO fatal shootings was the Western U.S. Firearm deaths of non-Hispanic Blacks were the dominant (82%) method of LEO-induced deaths. Non-Hispanic Black Americans experience LEO firearm-related injuries and deaths at a much higher rate than their non-Hispanic White counterparts. In the context of the racial disparities among people who die following LEO-related gunshot wounds, changes to police training systems and an examination of implicit biases among LEOs should be investigated as the next step in reducing the use of lethal force practices.

Fatal Firearm Violence Among American Indians and Alaska Natives.

There is a dearth of population-based studies regarding firearm-related deaths and years of potential life lost among American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/AN). Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) We Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) data for the three most recent years (2018-2020), we analyzed the demographic characteristics of AI/ANs who succumbed to firearm violence. AI/ANs averaged almost 500 firearm-related deaths per year. The majority of these deaths were observed among individuals 20-39 years of age (53%), males (84.4%), and in the West (55.3%). A plurality of these firearm-related deaths were suicides (48.9%) followed by homicides (43.5%). During the 3-year study period, the age-adjusted firearm death rate increased almost 5 times the growth of the AI/AN population. Also, a staggering 67,050 years of potential life were lost before the age of 80 years (YPLL80) during this period. Firearm suicides were responsible for the largest proportion of YPLL80s (48.5%). Traditional legal interventions [e.g., child access prevention (CAP) laws and extreme risk protection orders (ERPO)], if expanded to more states could potentially help reduce AI/AN firearm mortality. None of the 10 states with the highest firearm mortality of AI/AN have ERPOs and 8 of the 10 do not have CAP laws. Also, a renewed focus on cultural continuity and indigenous protective factors is essential to ameliorate the level of firearm violence in AI/ANs.

Descriptive Epidemiology of Female Suicides by Race and Ethnicity.

Each year millions of females develop serious mental illnesses (SMI), which are major risk factors for suicides. Using the Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) for the years 2000, 2010 and 2020, we found in 2020 9,428 females (almost 190/week) committed suicide, losing 328,653 years off potential life before age 80 years. There were pronounced increases in female suicides from 2000 to 2020 across all racial and ethnic groups. The greatest number of suicides were in non-Hispanic white females, but the highest rate of suicides was in non-Hispanic American Indians /Alaska Natives, and in females 15-24 years of age. The West had the highest female suicide rates, with methods used to commit suicides varying by census regions and race and ethnicity. Suffocation to commit suicide increased for most racial and ethnic groups and poisonings decreased for most groups between 2000 and 2020, These underscore the need for targeted primary prevention of suicides for females based on age, geographic location and method of suicide, to mitigate female suicides improved access (e.g. geographically and financially) to mental health care services is essential.

Firearm Mortality Among Pre-school Age Children, 2010-2020.

Firearms are a substantial cause of death for pre-school children (ages 0-5 years). The purpose of this study was to characterize fatal firearm violence in this age group. The Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were analyzed for the years 2010-2020. There were 1,220 firearm deaths during the study period with a 75% increase in the rate of deaths per 100,000 population. Most deaths (two-thirds) were among males. Non-Hispanic Blacks comprised 56.4% of all deaths in 2020, a 172% increase from 2010 and the rate for non-Hispanic Whites increased by 15.4% from 2010 to 2020. The majority of the deaths occurred in the South. Almost two-thirds (65.9%) of all firearm deaths were homicides, 30% were unintentional, and 4.1% were undetermined. Homicides were also the majority of deaths for non-Hispanic Blacks (64.9%), non-Hispanic Whites (60.8%), and Hispanics (81.3%). The years of potential life lost before 80 years of age were 94,105, with a plurality (43.3%) of losses occurring among non-Hispanic Black children. Sustained awareness campaigns should be implemented to make parents and guardians aware of the profound dangers of unlocked and loaded or unsafely stored firearms in the home. Child healthcare providers should counsel parents and guardians on firearm safety in households. Public health professionals should advocate for laws that can help protect children from firearm violence (e.g., Domestic Violence Restraining Orders, Child Access Prevention laws, and Extreme Risk Protection Order laws).

Child Access Prevention Laws and Non-Hispanic Black Youth Firearm Mortality.

Firearm injuries are the leading cause of death for youths 19 and younger in general and the third leading cause of death for non-Hispanic Black youths. Child Access Prevention (CAP) laws have been explored concerning their impact on firearm mortality reduction among heterogenous groups of youth, but not specifically among non-Hispanic Black youths. We analyzed data related to non-Hispanic Black youth firearm mortality, non-Hispanic Black poverty rates, firearm dealer density, and CAP laws for each state to ascertain the impact of CAP laws from 2015 to 2019. During the study period, a total of 6778 non-Hispanic Black youths died due to firearm trauma with the leading causes of death being homicides (85.8%); mostly seen among males (96%), and in the South (53.2%). When compared by CAP laws, the states with the strongest laws had statistically significantly lower rates of firearm mortality than states with the weakest laws. After adjusting for state poverty and firearm dealer density, the differences were not statistically significant but still, stronger CAP laws were associated with lower rates of firearm mortality among non-Hispanic Black youth. CAP laws alone can have a modest impact on non-Hispanic Black youth firearm mortality. To adequately reduce firearm mortality among non-Hispanic Black youths, the state and local governments should, along with CAP laws, enact policies to reduce poverty, crime, access to firearms by criminals, and neighborhood dysfunction among non-Hispanic Black communities.

Lethal Force Usage by Law Enforcement Officers Against Hispanics, 2011-2020.

Most research on lethal force by law enforcement officers (LEOs) has focused on firearm deaths by LEOs among certain racial groups (e.g., African Americans). Specifically, not much is known about LEOs-induced lethal injuries among Hispanics. The purpose of this study was to characterize LEOs induced fatal injuries, the methods used, among various demographic groups of Hispanics, and the years of potential life lost before the age of 80 years due to lethal force by LEOs. Data from the Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) were analyzed for the years 2011-2020. LEOs killed 1,158 Hispanics; most were males (96.2%) with the majority being shot (89.9%). Two-thirds (66.9%) of those killed were Hispanics 20-39 years of age and from the Western U.S. These Hispanic deaths resulted in 53,320 YPLLs. Males and those ages 20-39 years lost the most YPLLs. The rate of fatal encounters with LEOs for Hispanics grew by 44.4% over the decade, with the highest rate in 2020. Mitigation of unnecessary Hispanic deaths by LEOs needs to include changes in law enforcement agency policies, hiring practices for LEOs, improved data collection for LEOs use of lethal force, improved mental healthcare and training for LEOs, use of less lethal strategies for citizen control by law enforcement, deference education for all young adults, and long-term changes in social forces that have created and maintained disenfranchised communities of color.

Descriptive Epidemiology of Fatal Law Enforcement Interactions with Teenagers, 2010-2020.

There is a dearth of population studies regarding law enforcement officers (LEOs) use of fatal force against teenagers. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to characterize the teens most likely to be killed, the methods used to fatally injure teenagers, the geographic distribution of the killings, and the years of potential life lost before the age of 80 years (YPLL80) due to LEO interactions. Data from the Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were analyzed for the years 2010-2020. LEOs killed 330 teenagers; most were males (94.2%) and 6 of 7 teens (84.5%) were shot. The teens killed were disproportionately older teens ages 18-19 years (64.2%) and non-Hispanic Blacks (45.8%) who were usually killed in metropolitan areas (90.0%). The rate of teenage killings by LEOs significantly increased (267%) over the time frame studied. A total of 20,575 YPLL80 were lost and they significantly increased over time (263%). Mitigation of teenagers killed by LEOs will require transforming policing through policy changes (e.g. hiring and training) over an extended period of time. Also, the public needs education, (e.g. funding, interactions) regarding policing.

Helicopter Emergency Medical Services Outcomes Research 1983 to 2022: Evidence Overview and Longitudinal Trends.

OBJECTIVE: Helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) literature has been assessed in reviews focusing on various diagnoses, but there are few, if any, summaries of the entire body of HEMS outcomes evidence. Our goal was to summarize the existing research addressing patient-centered outcomes potentially accrued with HEMS. METHODS: As part of the Critical Care Transport Collaborative Outcomes Research Effort, we generated the HEMS Outcomes Assessment Research Database and executed descriptive analyses of longitudinal trends from 1983 to 2022. Both indexed and gray literature sources were incorporated in the HEMS Outcomes Assessment Research Database. Studies were reviewed by at least 2 authors to select those that addressed a patient-centered outcome. Studies addressing solely HEMS logistics were excluded. Categoric analyses were executed with the Fisher exact test, and continuous variables were evaluated for normality with normal quantile plotting and a comparison of medians and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: We found that HEMS outcomes study sample sizes increased steadily from 1983 to 2012, with the most recent decade demonstrating a marked increase in the rate of publication of HEMS outcomes studies. Most research (70.6%) addressed trauma patient outcomes, but recent decades have seen a significant increase in non-trauma studies. Recent decades have also been characterized by an increase in the production of HEMS outcomes research outside of North America and Europe. CONCLUSION: This study summarizes the current state of the HEMS outcome literature. We highlight increasing contributions from worldwide researchers and increasing focus on HEMS benefits in non-trauma cases, particularly time-critical cases such as cardiac or stroke diagnoses. This provides a basis for further investigations into patient-oriented benefits potentially accrued with HEMS.

Changing Patterns of Bloodstream Infections in the Community and Acute Care Across 2 Coronavirus Disease 2019 Epidemic Waves: A Retrospective Analysis Using Data Linkage.

BACKGROUND: We examined community- and hospital-acquired bloodstream infections (BSIs) in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and non-COVID-19 patients across 2 epidemic waves. METHODS: We analyzed blood cultures of patients presenting to a London hospital group between January 2020 and February 2021. We reported BSI incidence, changes in sampling, case mix, healthcare capacity, and COVID-19 variants. RESULTS: We identified 1047 BSIs from 34 044 blood cultures, including 653 (62.4%) community-acquired and 394 (37.6%) hospital-acquired. Important pattern changes were seen. Community-acquired Escherichia coli BSIs remained below prepandemic level during COVID-19 waves, but peaked following lockdown easing in May 2020, deviating from the historical trend of peaking in August. The hospital-acquired BSI rate was 100.4 per 100 000 patient-days across the pandemic, increasing to 132.3 during the first wave and 190.9 during the second, with significant increase in elective inpatients. Patients with a hospital-acquired BSI, including those without COVID-19, experienced 20.2 excess days of hospital stay and 26.7% higher mortality, higher than reported in prepandemic literature. In intensive care, the BSI rate was 421.0 per 100 000 intensive care unit patient-days during the second wave, compared to 101.3 pre-COVID-19. The BSI incidence in those infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Alpha variant was similar to that seen with earlier variants. CONCLUSIONS: The pandemic have impacted the patterns of community- and hospital-acquired BSIs, in COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients. Factors driving the patterns are complex. Infection surveillance needs to consider key aspects of pandemic response and changes in healthcare practice.

Hispanic Child Suicides in the United States, 2010-2019.

Suicides in Hispanic adolescents have been increasing significantly. Less clear is the extent of suicides in Hispanic children younger than 12 years of age. The purpose of this study was to explore the trends and methods of suicides in Hispanic children from 2010 to 2019 (latest data available across the United States). Suicide is the 7th leading cause of death for Hispanic children. Hispanic child suicides statistically significantly increased during the decade. From 2010 to 2019, Hispanic child suicide rates increased by 92.3%. The suicide deaths were primarily in boys (59.6%) and among those 10-12 years of age (94.9%). Hispanic child suicides were most common in the West and South and least common in the Northeastern US The method used to commit suicide was overwhelmingly (76-85%) hanging/strangulation/suffocation. To help assure Hispanic children flourish and mature into healthy adults, it is essential that policymakers commit more resources for access to healthcare for all youths and that research funding for minorities include research regarding Hispanic children's suicide risk factors, protective factors, and effective interventions to reduce suicides of Hispanic children.

Childhood Suicide Trends in the United States, 2010-2019.

Suicides are among the 10 leading causes of death in U.S. children 12 years of age and younger. The purpose of this study was to examine trends and methods of suicide in children by race and gender from 2010 to 2019, the most recent years of data available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Child suicides statistically significantly increased for black (95%), white (158%), male (95%), and female (300%) children during the decade. Additionally, the methods children used to commit suicide did not significantly differ by race or gender. The leading method of suicide used by children was strangulation/suffocation depending on race and gender (67%-85%). The second most common method of suicide was by the use of a firearm, again depending on race and gender (11%-30%). Northeastern states had the fewest child suicides during the decade and Texas and California had the most child suicides. Policymakers need to commit more resources and research funding to better detect risk factors, protective factors, and effective interventions for reducing child suicides.

Suicides Among Non-Elderly Adult Hispanics, 2010-2020.

Most research on suicides focuses on youth or the elderly and dominant groups of a population. The purpose of this study was to assess suicide trends for non-elderly adult Hispanics (age 20-64 years) over the past decade (2010-2020). Data from the Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) were analyzed for the study period. Suicides for Hispanics in 2010 were the 7th leading cause of death and became the 5th leading cause of death by 2020. During the decade of analyses, suicide rates increased 35.7% for males and 40.6% for females. Non-elderly Hispanic males were most likely to die by hanging/suffocation (2010 = 42%, 2020 = 41%), or firearms (2010 = 39%, 2020 = 42%). Whereas, Hispanic adult females were most likely to use hanging/suffocation (2010 = 36%, 2020 = 43%) or poisoning (2010 = 27%, 2020 = 19%) for completed suicides. In 2020, the top three states for non-elderly Hispanic adult suicides (per 100,000 population) were Colorado (25.52), New Mexico (23.99), and Utah (21.73). The Hispanic population continues to grow, but also faces chronicity of prejudice, underemployment, lack of healthcare access, multiple stressors, and rising levels of suicide. The reduction of adult Hispanic suicides would require additional resources, interventions, and research to understand prevention and risk factors.

Linking Water Quality to Drinking Water Treatment Costs Using Time Series Analysis: Examining the Effect of a Treatment Plant Upgrade in Ohio.

We estimate a cost function for a water treatment plant in Ohio to assess the avoided-treatment costs resulting from improved source water quality. Regulations and source water concerns motivated the treatment plant to upgrade its treatment process by adding a granular activated carbon building in 2012. The cost function uses daily observations from 2013 to 2016; this allows us to compare the results to a cost function estimated for 2007-2011 for the same plant. Both models focus on understanding the relationship between treatment costs per 1,000 gallons (per 3.79 m3) of produced drinking water and predictor variables such as turbidity, pH, total organic carbon, deviations from target pool elevation, final production, and seasonal variables. Different from the 2007-2011 model, the 2013-2016 model includes a harmful algal bloom toxin variable. We find that the new treatment process leads to a different cost model than the one that covers 2007-2011. Both total organic carbon and algal toxin are important drivers for the 2013-2016 treatment costs. This reflects a significant increase in cyanobacteria cell densities capable of producing toxins in the source water between time periods. The 2013-2016 model also reveals that positive and negative shocks to treatment costs affect volatility, the changes in the variance of costs through time, differently. Positive shocks, or increased costs, lead to higher volatility compared to negative shocks, or decreased costs, of similar magnitude. After quantifying the changes in treatment costs due to changes in source water quality, we discuss how the study results inform policy-relevant decisions.

Ball magnet ingestion in children: a stronger and more dangerous attraction?

INTRODUCTION: The ingestion of small, strong, rare-earth magnets, also termed 'ball magnets', can rapidly result in life-threatening bowel injuries. The objective of this study was to report the incidence and management of 'ball magnet' ingestion in children across the UK and to discuss the potential implications for policy-makers and public awareness campaigns. METHODS: In this multi-centre survey of UK major trauma centres (MTCs), paediatric patients admitted to hospital following 'ball magnet' ingestion from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2020 were included. RESULTS: Responses were received from 11 MTCs (52%) reporting a total of 53 children admitted with 'ball magnet' ingestion over the 1-year study period. Most patients (n=51) presented following unintentional ingestion. 36 (68%) patients presented asymptomatically following witnessed or reported ingestion. In symptomatic patients, abdominal pain and vomiting were the the most common symptoms. The median number of 'ball magnets' ingested was 5.0 (IQR 3.0-7.8), range 1 to 63. 27 (51%) patients underwent operative intervention; laparotomy being the the most common (n=24, 89%). There were no deaths reported during the study period. CONCLUSION: This multi-centre survey from the UK demonstrates the serious impact of 'ball magnet' ingestion in children. Clinicians, regulators and caregivers must work symbiotically in order to prevent, recognise and reduce life-threatening bowel injuries.

Investigating Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Surface and Air Contamination in an Acute Healthcare Setting During the Peak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic in London.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) surface and air contamination during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in London. METHODS: Prospective, cross-sectional, observational study in a multisite London hospital. Air and surface samples were collected from 7 clinical areas occupied by patients with COVID-19 and a public area of the hospital. Three or four 1.0-m3 air samples were collected in each area using an active air sampler. Surface samples were collected by swabbing items in the immediate vicinity of each air sample. SARS-CoV-2 was detected using reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and viral culture; the limit of detection for culturing SARS-CoV-2 from surfaces was determined. RESULTS: Viral RNA was detected on 114 of 218 (52.3%) surfaces and in 14 of 31 (38.7%) air samples, but no virus was cultured. Viral RNA was more likely to be found in areas immediately occupied by COVID-19 patients than in other areas (67 of 105 [63.8%] vs 29 of 64 [45.3%]; odds ratio, 0.5; 95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.9; P = .025, χ2 test). The high PCR cycle threshold value for all samples (>30) indicated that the virus would not be culturable. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings of extensive viral RNA contamination of surfaces and air across a range of acute healthcare settings in the absence of cultured virus underlines the potential risk from environmental contamination in managing COVID-19 and the need for effective use of personal protective equipment, physical distancing, and hand/surface hygiene.