A modified SEIR model to predict the behavior of the early stage in coronavirus and coronavirus-like outbreaks.

COVID-19 is a highly infectious disease that emerged in China at the end of 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic is the first known pandemic caused by a coronavirus, namely, the new and emerging SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. In the present work, we present simulations of the initial outbreak of this new coronavirus using a modified transmission rate SEIR model that takes into account the impact of government actions and the perception of risk by individuals in reaction to the proportion of fatal cases. The parameters related to these effects were fitted to the number of infected cases in the 33 provinces of China. The data for Hubei Province, the probable site of origin of the current pandemic, were considered as a particular case for the simulation and showed that the theoretical model reproduces the behavior of the data, thus indicating the importance of combining government actions and individual risk perceptions when the proportion of fatal cases is greater than [Formula: see text]. The results show that the adjusted model reproduces the behavior of the data quite well for some provinces, suggesting that the spread of the disease differs when different actions are evaluated. The proposed model could help to predict outbreaks of viruses with a biological and molecular structure similar to that of SARS-CoV-2.

Physical limitation of pesticides (chlordecone) decontamination in volcanic soils: fractal approach and numerical simulation.

In the French West Indies, the chlordecone (organochloride pesticide) pollution is now diffuse becoming new contamination source for crops and environment (water, trophic chain). Decontamination by bioremediation and chemical degradation are still under development but the physical limitations of these approaches are generally not taken into account. These physical limitations are related to the poor physical accessibility to the pesticides in soils because of the peculiar structural properties of the contaminated clays (pore volume, transport properties, permeability, and diffusion). Some volcanic soils (andosols), which represent the half of the contaminated soils in Martinique, contain nanoclay (allophane) with a unique structure and porous properties. Andosols are characterized by pore size distribution in the mesoporous range, a high specific surface area, a large pore volume, and a fractal structure. Our hypothesis is that the clay microstructure characteristics are crucial physico-chemical factors strongly limiting the remediation of the pesticide. Our results show that allophane microstructure (small pore size, hierarchical microstructure, and tortuosity) favors accumulation of chlordecone, in andosols. Moreover, the clay microporosity limits the accessibility of microorganisms and chemical species able to decontaminate because of poor transport properties (permeability and diffusion). We model the transport properties by two approaches: (1) we use a numerical model to simulate the structure of allophane aggregates. The algorithm is based on a cluster-cluster aggregation model. From the simulated data, we derived the pore volume, specific surface area, tortuosity, permeability, and diffusion. We show that transport properties strongly decrease because of the presence of allophane. (2) The fractal approach. We characterize the fractal features (size of the fractal aggregate, fractal dimension, tortuosity inside allophane aggregates) and we calculate that transport properties decrease of several order ranges inside the clay aggregates. These poor transport properties are important parameters to explain the poor accessibility to pollutants in volcanic soils and should be taken into account by future decontamination process. We conclude that for andosols, this inaccessibility could render inefficient some of the methods proposed in the literature.

Fractal Structure in Silica and Composites Aerogels.

Silica aerogels are known to be materials with exceptional characteristics, such as ultra-low density, high surface area, high porosity, high adsorption, and low-thermal conductivity. In addition, these unique properties are mainly related to their specific processing. Depending on the aerogel synthesis procedure, the aerogels texture can be tailored with meso and/or macroporosity. Fractal geometry has been observed and used to describe silica aerogels at nanoscales in certain conditions. In this review paper, we describe the fractal structure of silica aerogels that can develop depending on the synthesis conditions. X-ray and neutron scattering measurements allow to show that silica aerogels can exhibit a fractal structure over one or even more than two orders of magnitude in length. The fractal dimension does not depend directly on the material density but can vary with the synthesis conditions. It ranges typically between 1.6 and 2.4. The effect of the introduction of silica particles or of further thermal treatment or compression of the silica aerogels on their microstructure and their fractal characteristics is also resumed.

Mechanical Properties and Brittle Behavior of Silica Aerogels.

Sets of silica gels: aerogels, xerogels and sintered aerogels, have been studied in the objective to understand the mechanical behavior of these highly porous solids. The mechanical behaviour of gels is described in terms of elastic and brittle materials, like glasses or ceramics. The magnitude of the elastic and rupture modulus is several orders of magnitude lower compared to dense glass. The mechanical behaviours (elastic and brittle) are related to the same kinds of gel characteristics: pore volume, silanol content and pore size. Elastic modulus depends strongly on the volume fraction of pores and on the condensation reaction between silanols. Concerning the brittleness features: rupture modulus and toughness, it is shown that pores size plays an important role. Pores can be considered as flaws in the terms of fracture mechanics and the flaw size is related to the pore size. Weibull's theory is used to show the statistical nature of flaw. Moreover, stress corrosion behaviour is studied as a function of environmental conditions (water and alcoholic atmosphere) and temperature.

Síndromes depresivos en la consulta de psiquiatría de enlace / Depressive syndrome in the liaison-consultation of psichiatry

Evaluamos la incidencia de Síndromes Depresivos en la consulta de Enlace del Servicio de Psiquiatría del Hospital Vargas de Caracas durante 6 meses. Estudiamos 130 pacientes hospitalizados, a quienes les solicitaron evaluación; se les administró el Mini-Mental Test y la Entrevista Clínica Estructurada (SCID-P-DSM-III-R). 20 pacientes (15.4%) presentaron sintomatología depresiva: 14 pacientes (70%) con Trastorno de Adaptación con Estado de Animo Deprimido (TAEAD), 5 pacientes (25%) con Depresión Mayor (DM) y uno 5% con Síndrome Afectivo Orgánico con Síntomas Depresivos (SAOSD). A estos pacientes les administramos un protocolo con datos socio-demográficos, historia médico-psiquiátrica y escalas de evaluación: Hamilton, Beck, ICG, Karnofsky. Estresores Psicosociales y AF. Los pacientes con TAEAD eran más jóvenes, solteros, tratados básicamente con psicoterapia y evolucionaron hacia la mejoría, en comparación con los pacientes con DM. Al comparar los resultados de las escalas aplicadas en la evaluación inicial y al egreso solo hubo diferencias estadísticamente significativas en las escalas de Halmiton, Beck e ICG de los pacientes con TAEAD (p < 0,01).