An Overview of Pulses Production in India: Retrospect and Prospects of the Future Food with an Application of Hybrid Models.

Forecasts are valuable to countries to make informed business decisions and develop data-driven strategies. The production of pulses is an integral part of agricultural diversification initiatives because it offers promising economic opportunities to reduce rural poverty and unemployment in developing countries. Pulses are the cheapest source of protein needed for human health. India's pulses production guidelines must be based on accurate and best forecast models. Comparing classical statistical and machine learning models based on different scientific data series is the subject of high-level research today. This study focused on the forecasting behaviour of pulses production for India, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. The data series was split into a training dataset (1950-2014) and a testing dataset (2015-2019) for model building and validation purposes, respectively. ARIMA, NNAR and hybrid models were used and compared on training and validation datasets based on goodness of fit (RMSE, MAE and MASE). This research demonstrates that due to the diverse agricultural conditions across different provinces in India, there is no single model that can accurately predict pulse production in all regions. This study's highest accuracy model is ARIMA. ARIMA outperforms NNAR, a machine learning model. Pulse production in India, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh will expand by 26.11%, 12.62%, and 0.51% from 2020 to 2030, whereas it would decline by - 6.5%, - 6.21%, and - 6.76 per cent in Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh, respectively. The current forecast results could allow policymakers to develop more aggressive food security and sustainability plans and better Indian pulses production policies in the future.

Immune response in dairy cattle against combined foot and mouth disease and haemorrhagic septicemia vaccine under field conditions.

BACKGROUND: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and Haemorrhagic septicemia (HS) are two important diseases that are known to have caused significant economic losses to the cattle industry. Accordingly, vaccinations have been recognized as an efficient method to control and prevent both of the above-mentioned diseases. This study aimed to determine the immune response to FMD virus antigens and the recombinant outer membrane protein of HS (rOmpH) of Pasteurella multocida in cattle administered as a combination vaccine and compare antibody titers with the two vaccines given independently, under field conditions. Dairy cattle were divided into three groups. Each group was immunized with different vaccine types according to the vaccination program employed in this study. Antibody responses were determined by indirect ELISA, liquid phase blocking ELISA (LPB-ELISA) and viral neutralization test (VNT). Furthermore, the cellular immune responses were measured by lymphocyte proliferation assay (LPA). RESULTS: The overall antibody titers to HS and FMDV were above cut-off values for the combined FMD-HS vaccine in this study.The mean antibody titer against HS after the first immunization in the combined FMD-HS vaccine groups was higher than in the HS vaccine groups. However, no statistically significant differences (p > 0.05) were observed between groups. Likewise, the antibody titer to the FMDV serotypes O/TAI/189/87 and Asia 1/TAI/85 determined by LPB-ELISA in the combined vaccine were not statistically significantly different when compared to the FMD vaccine groups. However, the mean VNT antibody titer of combined vaccine against serotype O was significantly higher than the VN titer of FMD vaccine groups (p < 0.05). Moreover, the LPA results showed that all vaccinated groups displayed significantly higher than the negative control (p < 0.05). Nevertheless, no differences in the lymphocyte responses were observed in comparisons between the groups (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The combined FMD-HS vaccine formulated in this study could result in high both antibody and cellular immune responses without antigenic competition. Therefore, the combined FMD-HS vaccine can serve as an alternative vaccine against both HS and FMD in dairy cattle under field conditions.

Protection against fowl cholera in ducks immunized with a combination vaccine containing live attenuated duck enteritis virus and recombinant outer membrane protein H of Pasteurella multocida.

Fowl cholera is a highly contagious disease within the global duck farming industry. This study aimed at formulating and evaluating the protective efficacy of a combination vaccine containing a recombinant outer membrane protein H (rOmpH) of Pasteurella multocida strain X-73 with a live attenuated duck plague vaccine into a single dose. Four groups of ducks received different treatments and the groups were labelled as non-vaccinated, combined vaccination, duck plague vaccination and rOmpH vaccination, respectively. The combined vaccination group was comprised of live attenuated duck plague commercial vaccine with 100 µg rOmpH to a total volume of 0.5 ml/duck/intramuscular administration. All groups were challenged with avian P. multocida strain X-73 via intranasal administration. In addition, blood samples were collected monthly over a period of 6 months to determine the appropriate antibody level by indirect ELISA. The indirect ELISA results in the combination vaccine group revealed that the average levels of the serum antibody against the duck enteritis virus (0.477 ± 0.155) and fowl cholera (0.383 ± 0.100) were significantly higher than those values in the non-vaccinated control group (0.080 ± 0.027 and 0.052 ± 0.017), respectively (P < 0.05). Moreover, all vaccinated ducks were effectively protected from fowl cholera. This preliminary study indicated that a combination vaccine did not affect the antibody response in the subjects while protecting the ducks against experimental P. multocida infection. This combination vaccine should be considered part of an alternative pre-treatment strategy that could replace the monovalent vaccine.

Spatiotemporal analyses of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in cattle farms in Chiang Mai and Lamphun, Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and contagious febrile vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed livestock with high socio-economic consequences globally. In Thailand, FMD is endemic with 183 and 262 outbreaks occurring in the years 2015 and 2016, respectively. In this study, we aimed to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of FMD outbreaks among cattle in Chiang Mai and Lamphun provinces in the northern part of Thailand during the period of 2015-2016. A retrospective space-time scan statistic including a space-time permutation (STP) and the Poisson and Bernoulli models were applied in order to detect areas of high incidence of FMD. RESULTS: Results have shown that 9 and 8 clusters were identified by the STP model in 2015 and 2016, respectively, whereas 1 and 3 clusters were identified by the Poisson model, and 3 and 4 clusters were detected when the Bernoulli model was applied for the same time period. In 2015, the most likely clusters were observed in Chiang Mai and these had a minimum radius of 1.49 km and a maximum radius of 20 km. Outbreaks were clustered in the period between the months of May and October of 2015. The most likely clusters in 2016 were observed in central Lamphun based on the STP model and in the eastern area of Chiang Mai by the Poisson and Bernoulli models. The cluster size of the STP model (8.51 km) was smaller than those of the Poisson and Bernoulli models (> 20 km). The cluster periods in 2016 were approximately 7 months, while 4 months and 1 month were identified by the Poisson, Bernoulli and STP models respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The application of three models provided more information for FMD outbreak epidemiology. The findings from this study suggest the use of three different space-time scan models for the investigation process of outbreaks along with the follow-up process to identify FMD outbreak clusters. Therefore, active prevention and control strategies should be implemented in the areas that are most susceptible to FMD outbreaks.

Estimating the number of farms experienced foot and mouth disease outbreaks using capture-recapture methods.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is recognized as an endemic disease in Thailand and throughout other countries in Southeast Asia. The underreporting of FMD outbreaks has affected the true status of the disease. This study aimed to determine the number of dairy farms in Chiang Mai that had experienced FMD outbreaks (FMD outbreak farm) during 2015-2016 using capture-recapture (CR) methods. Two independent FMD outbreak data sources including data from the livestock authorities and survey questionnaires were analyzed using Chapman estimator and Chao estimator. Results showed that the estimated number of FMD outbreak farms was 264 (95% CI = 250, 277) and 273 (95% CI = 259, 292) farms based on the Chapman estimator and Chao estimator, respectively. The estimated prevalence of FMD corresponding to the Chapman estimator was lower than the Chao estimator. The active approach of the survey method offered a higher degree of sensitivity compared to the passive method used by the livestock authorities. Estimations from the CR method provided an upper bound for the true number of outbreak farms. This study demonstrated the use of the CR method to estimate the true status of FMD outbreaks. Our proposed approach can potentially be used as a tool to enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of established monitoring and surveillance systems.

Prevalence and distribution of blaCTX-M, blaSHV, blaTEM genes in extended- spectrum ß- lactamase- producing E. coli isolates from broiler farms in the Philippines.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance is a worldwide problem causing serious health threats. Escherichia coli is one of the most important bacteria that causes resistance problem. These bacteria produce an enzyme called extended-spectrum ß-lactamase (ESBL) that allows it to become resistant to a wide variety of penicillins and cephalosporins. Currently, no information or published studies on ESBL-producing E.coli in broilers are available in the Philippines. This cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the prevalence and distribution of extended-spectrum ß-lactamase (ESBL)-encoding genes, blaCTX-M, blaSHV, and blaTEM, among E. coli isolates from broiler farms in Luzon, Philippines. RESULTS: Results showed a farm prevalence of 66. 67%. A total of 69 (44.23%) ESBL-producing E. coli were isolated from boot swabs and cloacal swab samples from broiler farms. All major blaCTX-M groups except blaCTX-M-25 group were identified in the isolates. The most prevalent group was blaCTX-M-1, 72.46% (CI: 60.38-82.54%), followed by blaCTX-M-2, blaCTX-M-9 group and blaCTX-M-8. The blaTEM and blaSHV genes were identified in 57.97 and 27.54% of isolates, respectively. The blaCTX-M and blaTEM were the most common gene combinations (33.33%). Coexistence of blaCTX-M types was observed in 50 (73.53%) isolates. CONCLUSION: This study shows the high prevalence, diversity of patterns and coexistence of ESBL genes in the E. coli isolates from cloacal and boot swabs from broiler farms which pose risks of possible transmission to the environment, other animals and human.

Monitoring of white striping and wooden breast cases and impacts on quality of breast meat collected from commercial broilers (Gallus gallus).

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed at investigating white striping (WS) and wooden breast (WB) cases in breast meat collected from commercial broilers. METHODS: A total of 183 breast samples were collected from male Ross 308 broilers slaughtered at the age of 6 weeks (n = 100) and 7 weeks (n = 83). The breasts were subjected to meat defect inspection, meat quality determination and histology evaluation. RESULTS: Of 183, 4 breasts from 6-week-old broilers were classified as non-defective while the others exhibited the WS lesion. Among the 6-week-old birds, the defective samples from the medium size birds (carcass weight ≤2.5 kg) showed mild to moderate WS degree with no altered meat quality. Some of the breasts from the 6-week-old birds with carcass weight above 2.5 kg exhibited WB in accompanied with the WS condition. Besides of a reduction of protein content, increases in collagen matter and pH values in the defective samples (p<0.05), no other impaired quality indices were detected within this group. All 7-week-old broilers yielded carcasses weighing above 2.5 kg and showed abnormal characteristics with progressive severity. The breasts affected with severe WS and WB showed the greatest cook loss, hardness, springiness and chewiness (p<0.05). Development of WB induced significantly increased drip loss in the samples (p<0.05). Histology indicated necrotic events in the defective myofibers. Based on logistic regression, increasing percent breast weight by one unit enhanced the chance of WS and WB development with advanced severity by 50.9% and 61.0%, respectively. Delayed slaughter age from 6 to 7 weeks increased the likelihood of obtaining increased WS severity by 56.3%. CONCLUSION: Cases of WS and WB defects in Southeast Asia have been revealed. Despite few cases of the severe WS and WB, such abnormal conditions significantly impaired technological properties and nutritional quality of broiler breasts.

Osteoarthritis in two marine mammals and 22 land mammals: learning from skeletal remains.

The occurrence of osteoarthritis (OA) in marine mammals is still questionable. Here we investigated the prevalence of OA in marine (dolphin and dugong) and terrestrial mammals (Asian elephant, Asiatic buffalo, camel, cat, cattle, deer, dog, domestic goat, horse, human, hyena, impala, lion, Malayan tapir, Assam macaque, mule, pig, rabbit, red kangaroo, sheep, tiger and waterbuck). Skeletal remains obtained from five institutes were used as subjects; a total of 45 different parts (locations) of bones were observed for OA lesions. The prevalence of OA was reported as number of OA lesions/total number of bones. Our results revealed that the presence of OA in marine species (dolphin and dugong) was 2.44% and 3.33%, respectively. In dolphins, the highest OA occurrence was on the left and right humeral trochlea, with 13.68% and 12.63%, respectively, while the highest number of OA lesions in dugongs was on the lumbar vertebrae (8.79%). No significant difference (P > 0.05) in the prevalence of OA between sexes in dolphins and dugongs was observed, but we found a significant difference (P < 0.05) in 24 bone locations of human bones, which had the highest OA prevalence (48.93%), followed by dogs (3.94%). In conclusion, OA can occur in marine mammals, similar to terrestrial mammals, even though their natural habitat is the ocean.

Effects of hyaluronic acid combined with anti-inflammatory drugs compared with hyaluronic acid alone, in clinical trials and experiments in osteoarthritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The objectives are to compare the efficacy of intra-articular hyaluronic acid (IA-HA) alone and in combination with anti-inflammatory drugs (IA-HA + AI), corticosteroids (CS) or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in clinical trials and in vivo and in vitro studies of osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: Data in the BIOSIS, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, EMBASE and Medline databases were collected and analyzed. Random effects models were used to compute the effect size (ES) of the mean difference in pain reduction scores from baseline and the relative risk (RR) of adverse events. The ES of histological scores in vivo and cartilage metabolism in vitro were also calculated. We conducted sensitivity analysis of blinding and intention-to-treat (ITT), compared IA-HA combined with CS vs. IA-HA alone in trials, and compared the effects of HA + AI vs. AI alone in vitro, including anabolic and catabolic gene expression. RESULTS: Thirteen out of 382 papers were included for data analysis. In clinical trials, the ES of pain reduction scores within the 1st month was -4.24 (-6.19, -2.29); 2nd-12th month, -1.39 (-1.95, -0.82); and within one year, -1.63 (-2.19, -1.08), favoring IA-HA + AI (P < 0.001). The ES of RR was 1.08 (0.59, 1.98), and histological scores was 1.38 (-0.55, 3.31). The ES of anabolic gene expression was 1.22 (0.18, 2.25), favoring HA alone (P < 0.05); catabolic gene expression was 0.74 (-0.44, 1.53), favoring HA alone; and glycosaminoglycans remaining was -2.45 (-5.94, 1.03). CONCLUSIONS: IA-HA + AI had greater efficacy for pain relief than IA-HA alone within a one-year period. However, HA + AI down-regulated the ACAN gene when compared with HA alone in vitro.

Application of machine learning algorithms to predict dead on arrival of broiler chickens raised without antibiotic program.

Understanding the factors of dead-on-arrival (DOA) incidents during pre-slaughter handling is crucial for informed decision-making, improving broiler welfare, and optimizing farm profitability. In this study, 3 different machine learning (ML) algorithms - least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), classification tree (CT), and random forest (RF) - were used together with 4 sampling techniques to optimize imbalanced data. The dataset comes from 22,115 broiler truckloads from a large producer in Thailand (2021-2022) and includes 14 independent variables covering the rearing, catching, and transportation stages. The study focuses on DOA% in the range of 0.10 to 1.20%, with a threshold for high DOA% above 0.3%, and records DOA% per truckload during pre-slaughter ante-mortem inspection. With a high DOA rate of 25.2%, the imbalanced dataset prompts the implementation of 4 methods to tune the imbalance parameters: random over sampling (ROS), random under sampling (RUS), both sampling (BOTH), and synthetic sampling or random over sampling example (ROSE). The aim is to improve the performance of the prediction model in classifying and predicting high DOA%. The comparative analysis of the different error metrics shows that RF outperforms the other models in a balanced dataset. In particular, RUS shows a significant improvement in prediction performance across all models compared to the original unbalanced dataset. The identification of the 4 most important variables for predicting high DOA percentages - mortality and culling rate, rearing stocking density, season, and mean body weight - emphasizes their importance for broiler production. This study provides valuable insights into the prediction of DOA status using an ML approach and contributes to the development of more effective strategies to mitigate high DOA percentages in commercial broiler production.

Cross-correlation and time series analysis of rabies in different animal species in Nepal from 2005 to 2018.

Rabies is a fatal zoonotic disease, resulting in human and livestock deaths. In Nepal, animal rabies has posed a significant challenge to public health. Because animals are the primary source of rabies in humans, a better understanding of rabies epidemiology in animals is necessary. The objectives of this study were to determine the correlation between rabies occurrences in dogs and livestock animals and to detect the trends and change points of the disease using longitudinal data. The nationwide rabies dataset from 2005 to 2018 was analyzed using cross-correlation, multiple change points, and time series methods. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Neural Network Autoregression (NNAR) were applied to the time series data. The results show a positive correlation between canine rabies and livestock rabies occurrences. Three significant change points were detected in the time series data, demonstrating that the occurrences were high in the initial years but stabilized before peaking to an upward trend in the final years of the study period. Nonetheless, there was no seasonality pattern in rabies occurrences. The most suitable models were ARIMA (2,1,2) and NNAR (5,1,4) (12). Based on the study findings, both locals and tourists in Nepal need to have enhanced awareness of the potential dangers posed by rabies in canines and livestock. This study offers much-needed insight into the patterns and epidemiology of animal rabies which will be helpful for policymakers in drafting rabies control plans for Nepal.

Association between Opisthorchis viverrini infection in cats and humans: Non-spatial and spatial analyses.

Cats are recognized as significant reservoir hosts for human opisthorchiasis, particularly in areas with a high prevalence of infection. Despite this, the precise role of cats in the transmission of Opisthorchis viverrini between humans and felines remains unclear. This study investigates the association between these two hosts through both spatial and non-spatial analyses in the endemic Thanya sub-district of Thailand. A total of 105 owned cats were randomly sampled from 15 villages within the sub-district for stool examination. A questionnaire was administered to 66 cat owners to explore the human-pet relationship. Household locations were collected using GPS devices. Non-spatial analyses revealed a positive association between the two hosts (P= 0.011; OR 7, 95% CI: 1.6-30.9), highlighting two independent significant risk factors: cat owners consuming raw fish (P = 0.028; OR = 4.52, 95% CI: 1.25-19.45) and feeding cats raw fish (P = 0.011; OR = 16.41, 95% CI: 2.78-317.04) according to multivariate analysis. Spatial analysis provided further support to the non-spatial findings (p = 0.0123; OR = 3.45, 95% CI = 0.88-13.61). Multiple autologistic regression confirmed two significant risk factors: cat owners consuming raw fish (p = 0.054; OR = 3.37, 95% CI: 0.98-11.59) and feeding cats raw fish (p = 0.014; OR = 7.43, 95% CI: 1.49-37.05). Risk mapping identified the western part of the study site as a hotspot for O. viverrini infection. Hyper-endemic focusing revealed a union of human and cat buffers at 0.46 km², with an overlapping area of 0.22 km² (47.83%). This study underscores the impact of owners' behaviors, specifically consuming and feeding raw fish to cats, on the increased probability of infection in cats. It emphasizes the need for effective opisthorchiasis control through health education targeting cat owners in endemic areas.

Cadaveric Study on Comparison of Neck Extension Angles for Endotracheal Intubation in Rabbits Using a Rigid and Flexible Endoscope.

Endotracheal intubation in rabbits is always challenging due to the unique anatomical conformation. To improve endotracheal intubation success, this study determined the relationship between head placement angles guided by endoscope-assisted visualization techniques and the endotracheal intubation success rate. Thirty-two rabbit cadavers were used in the study. Six veterinary practitioners who had no experience with rabbit endotracheal intubation were randomly assigned to intubate rabbit cadavers using the guidance of either a rigid endoscope (RE) or flexible endoscope (FE), with the head placement angles with an ascending neck at 90, 100, 110, 120 and 130 degrees. The endotracheal intubation completed in 90 s was determined to be a success. The success rates using RE and FE were 97.2% and 95.9%, respectively. The means and standard error of means (SEM) of endotracheal intubation times guided by RE and FE were 53.7 ± 4.68 and 55.2 ± 4.24 s, respectively. Results from survival time analysis show that the five veterinarians successfully intubated the rabbit within 90 s, regardless of the different types of endoscopes. Angle was the only significant factor that affected the endotracheal intubation success. The head placement angle at 110 and 120 degrees had the highest success rate of endotracheal intubation compared to 90 degrees (p ≤ 0.05). In conclusion, for inexperienced veterinarians, the success of endotracheal intubation in rabbits, guided by endoscope-assisted visualized techniques regardless of rigid endoscope or flexible endoscope guidance, is improved when the head extension is 110 and 120 degrees.

Physiological changes in captive elephants in northern Thailand as a result of the COVID-19 tourism ban-stress biomarkers.

The international travel ban instituted by the Thai government in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic greatly affected how tourist camp elephants were managed, with reductions in exercise opportunities, longer chaining hours, and diminished food provisioning. This study was conducted to determine how those changes affected health and welfare biomarkers in individual elephants over the 2 years of the countrywide lockdown (April 2020-April 2022). Blood and fecal samples were collected from 58 elephants at six camps (monthly in Year 1, quarterly in Year 2) and analyzed for stress biomarkers - fecal glucocorticoid metabolites (fGCM), serum oxidative stress [malondialdehyde (MDA) and 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG)], and stress leukograms. Overall, fGCM concentrations increased within the first few months and remained higher than pre-COVID levels, as did the H/L ratio, a measure affected by cortisol. Serum 8-OHdG, an indicator of DNA oxidative damage, also increased over time, while monocytosis and lymphopenia further suggested alterations in immune function as a result of stress. By contrast, another marker of oxidative stress, serum MDA, declined, possibly in response to reduced roughage and supplement intake. A notable finding was a seasonal pattern of fGCM that was significantly different from previous studies. Whereas higher fGCM during the rainy season were observed in this study, previously, concentrations were highest during the winter, high tourist season. Thus, ironically, both the presence and absence of tourists have been associated with increased fGCM concentrations, albeit for different reasons. Camp management factors negatively affecting stress outcomes included shorter chain lengths, longer chain hours, lack of exercise, and reduced roughage and supplements. Overall, it was clear that camps struggled to maintain adequate care for elephants during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the importance of tourist income and need for contingency plans to cope with potential future disruptions to tourism.

Analysis of factors associated with the first lumpy skin disease outbreaks in naïve cattle herds in different regions of Thailand.

Introduction: Thailand experienced a nationwide outbreak of lumpy skin disease (LSD) in 2021, highlighting the need for effective prevention and control strategies. This study aimed to identify herd-level risk factors associated with LSD outbreaks in beef cattle herds across different regions of Thailand. Methods: A case-control study was conducted in upper northeastern, northeastern, and central regions, where face-to-face interviews were conducted with farmers using a semi-structured questionnaire. Univariable and multivariable mixed effect logistic regression analyses were employed to determine the factors associated with LSD outbreaks. A total of 489 beef herds, including 161 LSD outbreak herds and 328 non-LSD herds, were investigated. Results and discussion: Results showed that 66% of farmers have operated beef herds for more than five years. There were very few animal movements during the outbreak period. None of the cattle had been vaccinated with LSD vaccines. Insects that have the potential to act as vectors for LSD were observed in all herds. Thirty-four percent of farmers have implemented insect control measures. The final mixed effect logistic regression model identified herds operating for more than five years (odds ratio [OR]: 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-2.53) and the absence of insect control management on the herd (OR: 2.05, 95% CI: 1.29-3.25) to be associated with LSD outbreaks. The implementation of insect-vector control measures in areas at risk of LSD, especially for herds without vaccination against the disease, should be emphasized. This study provides the first report on risk factors for LSD outbreaks in naïve cattle herds in Thailand and offers useful information for the development of LSD prevention and control programs within the country's context.

Persistence of passive immunity in calves receiving colostrum from cows vaccinated with a live attenuated lumpy skin disease vaccine and the performance of serological tests.

This study aimed to determine the persistent duration of maternal immunity against lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) in dairy calves born from vaccinated cows using a virus neutralization test (VNT). The performance of the VNT and an in-house-ELISA test was also determined. Thirty-seven pregnant cows from 12 LSD-free dairy farms in Lamphun province, Thailand were immunized with a homologous Neethling strain-based attenuated vaccine and calved from December 2021 to April 2022. Blood samples from dam-calve pairs were collected within the first week after calving. Subsequently, blood samples were taken from the calves at monthly intervals over a period of 4 months and tested for the humoral immune response using a VNT. The calf sera were also tested with an in-house ELISA test to estimate the accuracy of both tests using a Bayesian approach. For the results, antibodies against LSDV can persist in cows for 4-9 months post-vaccination. Moreover, neutralizing antibodies and LSDV-specific antibodies against LSDV were detected in the majority of calves (75.68%) during the first week after colostrum intake. However, the percentage of seropositive calves declined to zero by day 120, with seropositivity dropping below 50% after day 60. Only a small number of seropositive calves (approximately 13.51%) were observed on day 90. These findings indicated that passive immunity against LSDV can last up to 3 months. The median of posterior estimates for sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of the VNT were 87.3% [95% posterior probability interval (PPI) = 81.1-92.2%] and 94.5% (95% PPI = 87.7-98.3%), respectively. The estimated Se and Sp for the ELISA test were 83.1% (95% PPI = 73.6-92.6%) and 94.7% (95% PPI = 88.4-98.5%), respectively. In conclusion, this study illustrates the transfer and persistence of maternal passive immunity against LSDV to calves under field conditions. This highlights a potential three-month vaccination gap in calves born from vaccinated cows, while an in-house ELISA test can be used as an ancillary test for LSDV immune response detection. However, further research is required to assess the vaccination protocols for calves as young as 2 months old to precisely determine the duration of maternal immunity.

Preslaughter handling factors affecting dead on arrival, condemnations, and bruising in broiler chickens raised without an antibiotic program.

In Thailand, knowledge about the factors affecting broiler losses during the preslaughter process is very limited, especially for broilers raised without an antibiotic program. The objective of this study was to determine the preslaughter factors that influence the incidence of dead on arrival (DOA), condemnations, and bruising in broilers raised without antibiotics. Data from 13,581 truckloads of broilers raised without an antibiotic program in 95 contract farms of one of Thailand's largest broiler producers in 2021 were analyzed using a generalized linear mixed model that accounted for farm as a random effect. Results showed that the following risk factors were associated with the occurrence of DOA, condemnations, and bruising: season, time of transport, sex, age at slaughter, mortality and culling rate, and weight per crate. While mean body weight affected the incidence of condemnations and bruising, transport time and lairage time affected DOA and bruising. Feed withdrawal time affected DOA and condemnations. Rearing stocking density only affected condemnation rate. Reducing or eliminating the effects of these risk factors could reduce production losses due to DOA, condemnations, and bruising, thereby improving animal welfare and producer profitability. Reducing weight per crate could reduce DOA, condemnations, and bruising. Reducing lairage time could reduce DOA and bruising, while reducing feed withdrawal time could reduce DOA and condemnations. Raising broilers at a younger age with a lower slaughter weight could prevent the occurrence of DOA, condemnations, and bruising.

The impact of mass vaccination policy and control measures on lumpy skin disease cases in Thailand: insights from a Bayesian structural time series analysis.

Introduction: In 2021, Thailand reported the highest incidence of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks in Asia. In response to the widespread outbreaks in cattle herds, the government's livestock authorities initiated comprehensive intervention measures, encompassing control strategies and a national vaccination program. Yet, the efficacy of these interventions remained unevaluated. This research sought to assess the nationwide intervention's impact on the incidence of new LSD cases through causal impact analysis. Methods: Data on weekly new LSD cases in Thailand from March to September 2021 was analyzed. The Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) analysis was employed to evaluate the causal relationship between new LSD cases in the pre-intervention phase (prior to the vaccination campaign) and the post-intervention phase (following the vaccination campaign). The assessment involved two distinct scenarios, each determined by the estimated effective intervention dates. In both scenarios, a consistent decline in new LSD cases was observed after the mass vaccination initiative, while other control measures such as the restriction of animal movement, insect control, and the enhancement of the active surveillance approach remained operational throughout the pre-intervention and the post-intervention phases. Results and discussion: According to the relative effect results obtained from scenario A and B, it was observed that the incidence of LSD cases exhibited reductions of 119% (95% Credible interval [CrI]: -121%, -38%) and 78% (95% CrI: -126, -41%), respectively. The BSTS results underscored the significant influence of these interventions, with a Bayesian one-sided tail-area probability of p < 0.05. This model-based study provides insight into the application of BSTS in evaluating the impact of nationwide LSD vaccination based on the national-level data. The present study is groundbreaking in two respects: it is the first study to quantify the causal effects of a mass vaccination intervention on the LSD outbreak in Thailand, and it stands as the only endeavor of its kind in the Asian context. The insights collected from this study hold potential value for policymakers in Thailand and other countries at risk of LSD outbreaks.

Forecasting of daily new lumpy skin disease cases in Thailand at different stages of the epidemic using fuzzy logic time series, NNAR, and ARIMA methods.

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an important transboundary disease affecting cattle in numerous countries in various continents. In Thailand, LSD is regarded as a serious threat to the cattle industry. Disease forecasting can assist authorities in formulating prevention and control policies. Therefore, the objective of this study was to compare the performance of time series models in forecasting a potential LSD epidemic in Thailand using nationwide data. For the forecasting of daily new cases, fuzzy time series (FTS), neural network auto-regressive (NNAR), and auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were applied to various datasets representing the different stages of the epidemic. Non-overlapping sliding and expanding window approaches were also employed to train the forecasting models. The results showed that the FTS outperformed other models in five of the seven validation datasets based on various error metrics. The predictive performance of the NNAR and ARIMA models was comparable, with NNAR outperforming ARIMA in some datasets and vice versa. Furthermore, the performance of models built from sliding and expanding window techniques was different. This is the first study to compare the forecasting abilities of the FTS, NNAR, and ARIMA models across multiple phases of the LSD epidemic. Livestock authorities and decision-makers may incorporate the forecasting techniques demonstrated herein into the LSD surveillance system to enhance its functionality and utility.

The first study on the impact of lumpy skin disease outbreaks on monthly milk production on dairy farms in Khon Kaen, Thailand.

Background and Aim: Outbreaks of lumpy skin disease (LSD) have resulted in substantial economic losses to the dairy industry in Thailand. This study aimed to determine the influence of LSD outbreaks on monthly milk production levels. Materials and Methods: Milk production for dairy farms located in Khon Kaen Province, Thailand, belonging to the Khon Kaen Dairy Cooperative, was affected by LSD outbreaks from May to August of 2021. The resulting data were analyzed using general linear mixed models. Results: It was estimated that the LSD outbreak caused economic losses totaling 2,413,000 Thai Baht (68,943 USD) over the outbreak period. The monthly farm milk production level in May differed from the levels in June and August. Dairy farmers experienced losses between 8.23 and 9.96 tons of milk each month, which equated to between 4180 and 14,440 Thai Baht (119.43 and 412.57 USD) in monthly income. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that LSD outbreaks on dairy farms resulted in significant farm milk production losses. Our findings will increase awareness among authorities and stakeholders in the dairy industry of Thailand, as well as to assist in the prevention of future LSD outbreaks and minimize the negative impacts of LSD.