RESUMO
Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of chronic kidney disease (CKD) on the short-term outcomes and prognosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients who underwent primary surgery. Methods: CRC patients who underwent radical surgery were included from Jan 2011 to Jan 2020 in a single hospital. The short-term outcomes and prognosis were compared between the CKD group and the Non-CKD group using propensity score matching (PSM) analysis. Results: A total of 4056 patients undergoing CRC surgery were included, including 723 patients in the CKD group and 3333 patients in the Non-CKD group. After 1:1 PSM, there were 666 patients in each group, respectively. No significant difference was found in baseline characteristics between the two groups. (p>0.05). After PSM, the CKD group had a longer postoperative hospital stay (P=0.009) and a higher incidence of overall complications (p=0.050). Cox analysis was performed on matched patients to find predictors of overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). We found that age (p<0.01, HR=1.045, 95% CI=1.028-1.062), tumor stage (p<0.01, HR=1.931, 95% CI=1.564-2.385) and overall complications (p<0.01, HR=1.858, 95% CI=1.423-2.425) were independent predictors of OS. Age (p<0.01, HR=1.034, 95% CI=1.020-1.049), tumor stage (p<0.01, HR=1.852, 95% CI=1.537-2.231), and overall complications (p<0.01, HR=1.651, 95% CI=1.295-2.10) were independent predictors of DFS. However, CKD was not an independent predictor of OS or DFS (OS: p=0.619, HR=1.070, 95% CI=0.820-1.396; DFS: p=0.472, HR=1.092, 95% CI=0.859-1.389). Conclusion: CKD prolonged postoperative hospital stay; however, CKD might not affect major postoperative complications, OS or DFS of CRC.
RESUMO
Purpose: The aim of this study was to establish a validated nomogram to predict risk factors for major post-operative complications in patients with rectal cancer (RC) by analyzing the factors contributing to major post-operative complications in RC patients. Methods: We retrospectively collected baseline and surgical information on patients who underwent RC surgery between December 2012 and December 2022 at a single-center teaching hospital. The entire cohort was randomly divided into two subsets (60% of the data for development, 40% for validation). Independent risk factors for major post-operative complications were identified using multivariate logistic regression analyses, and predictive models were developed. Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated using receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) to assess predictive probability, calibration curves were plotted to compare the predicted probability of the nomogram with the actual probability, and the clinical efficacy of the nomogram was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Our study included 3151 patients who underwent radical surgery for RC, including 1892 in the development set and 1259 in the validation set. Forty (2.1%) patients in the development set and 26 (2.1%) patients in the validation set experienced major post-operative complications. Through multivariate logistic regression analysis, age (p<0.01, OR=1.044, 95% CI=1.016-1.074), pre-operative albumin (p<0.01, OR=0.913, 95% CI=0.866-0.964), and open surgery (p<0.01, OR=2.461, 95% CI=1.284-4.761) were identified as independent risk factors for major post-operative complications in RC, and a nomogram prediction model was established. The AUC of the ROC plot for the development set was 0.7161 (95% Cl=0.6397-0.7924), and the AUC of the ROC plot for the validation set was 0.7191 (95% CI=0.6182-0.8199). The predicted probabilities in the calibration curves were highly consistent with the actual probabilities, which indicated that the prediction model had good predictive ability. The DCA also confirmed the good clinical performance of the nomogram. Conclusion: In this study, a validated nomogram containing three predictors was created to identify risk factors for major complications after radical RC surgery. Due to its accuracy and convenience, it could contribute to personalized management of patients in the perioperative period.