HIV incidence in US first-time blood donors and transfusion risk with a 12-month deferral for men who have sex with men.

In 2015, the US Food and Drug Administration published revised guidance that recommended a change in blood donor deferral of men who have sex with men (MSM) from an indefinite to a 12-month deferral since the donor last had sex with a man. We assessed whether HIV incidence in first-time blood donors or associated transfusion risk increased. Donations in 4 major blood collection organizations were monitored for 15 months before and 2 years after implementation of the 12-month MSM deferral policy. HIV-positive donations were classified as recently acquired or long-term using a recent infection testing algorithm and incidence in both periods estimated. Residual transfusion transmission risk was estimated by multiplying incidence by the length of the infectious window period. The latter was estimated using a model based on infectious dose and the sensitivity of nucleic acid testing. Factors associated with incident infection in each period were assessed using Poisson regression. Overall HIV incidence in first-time donors before implementation of the 12-month MSM deferral was estimated at 2.62 cases per 100 000 person-years (105 PY) (95% credible interval [CI], 1.53-3.93 cases/105 PY), and after implementation at 2.85 cases/105 PY (95% CI, 1.96-3.93 cases/105 PY), with no statistically significant change. In male first-time donors, the incidence difference was 0.93 cases/105 PY (95% CI, -1.74-3.58 cases/105 PY). The residual risk of HIV transfusion transmission through components sourced from first-time donors was estimated at 0.32 transmissions per million (106) packed red blood cell transfusions (95% CI, 0.29-0.65 transmissions/106 transfusions) before and 0.35 transmissions/106 transfusions (95% CI, 0.31-0.65 transmissions/106 transfusions) after implementation. The difference was not statistically significant. Factors associated with incident infection were the same in each period. We observed no increase in HIV incidence or HIV transfusion transmission risk after implementation of a 12-month MSM deferral policy.

HIV antiretroviral therapy and prevention use in US blood donors: a new blood safety concern.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) to treat and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent HIV infection are effective tools to help end the HIV epidemic. However, their use could affect HIV transfusion-transmission risk. Three different ART/PrEP prevalence analyses in blood donors were conducted. First, blood samples from HIV-positive and a comparison group of infection-nonreactive donors were tested under blind using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry for ART. Second, blood donor samples from infection-nonreactive, 18- to 45-year-old, male, first-time blood donors in 6 US locations were tested for emtricitabine and tenofovir. Third, in men who have sex with men (MSM) participating in the 2017 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National HIV Behavioral Surveillance (NHBS) from 5 US cities, self-reported PrEP use proximate to donation was assessed. In blind testing, no ART was detected in 300 infection-nonreactive donor samples, but in 299 HIV confirmed-infected donor samples, 46 (15.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 11.5% to 20.0%) had evidence of ART. Of the 1494 samples tested from first-time male donors, 9 (0.6%; 95% CI, 0.03% to 1.1%) had tenofovir and emtricitabine. In the NHBS MSM survey, 27 of 591 respondents (4.8%; 95% CI, 3.2% to 6.9%) reported donating blood in 2016 or 2017 and PrEP use within the same time frame as blood donation. Persons who are HIV positive and taking ART and persons taking PrEP to prevent HIV infection are donating blood. Both situations could lead to increased risk of HIV transfusion transmission if blood screening assays are unable to detect HIV in donations from infected donors.

Recently acquired infection among HIV-seropositive donors in the US from 2010-2018.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring of transfusion-transmissible infections in the blood supply is essential for blood safety, as the donor population is not static, and changes in policy, donor behavior, or other factors could increase the risk of recipient infection. We assessed patterns of recently acquired HIV infection in US blood donors, including before and after the implementation of the 12-month deferral for men who have sex with men (MSM). STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A large convenience sample of donations from donors testing HIV-1 nucleic acid testing (NAT) and serology-reactive were further tested with the Sedia HIV-1 Limiting Antigen enzyme immunoassay. Samples were analyzed across available demographic and donation data to provide an assessment of recently acquired HIV infection in US blood donors from 2010 to 2018. RESULTS: Overall, 317 of 1154 (27.5%; 95% confidence interval, 24.9%-30.1%) donations from HIV NAT and serology-reactive donors had recently acquired HIV infection. There was no evidence of change in the percentages of recent HIV infection by year over the study period, either in all donors or in male donors, including after the MSM policy change. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, donors aged 24 years or younger were over 2.7 times more likely and repeat donors 2.2 times more likely to have recently acquired HIV infection compared to donors aged 55 years or older and first-time donors, respectively. CONCLUSION: Patterns of recently acquired HIV infection varied by demographics but not over time. These findings suggest no impact of the MSM policy change on recently acquired HIV infection in US blood donors.

Ecological niche modeling to determine potential niche of Vaccinia virus: a case only study.

BACKGROUND: Emerging and understudied pathogens often lack information that most commonly used analytical tools require, such as negative controls or baseline data; thus, new analytical strategies are needed to analyze transmission patterns and drivers of disease emergence. Zoonotic infections with Vaccinia virus (VACV) were first reported in Brazil in 1999, VACV is an emerging zoonotic Orthopoxvirus, which primarily infects dairy cattle and farmers in close contact with infected cows. Prospective studies of emerging pathogens could provide critical data that would inform public health planning and response to outbreaks. By using the location of 87-recorded outbreaks and publicly available bioclimatic data, we demonstrate one such approach. Using an ecological niche model (ENM) algorithm, we identify the environmental conditions under which VACV outbreaks have occurred, and determine additional locations in two affected countries that may be susceptible to transmission. Further, we show how suitability for the virus responds to different levels of various environmental factors and highlight the most important factors in determining its transmission. METHODS: A literature review was performed and the geospatial coordinates of 87 molecularly confirmed VACV outbreaks in Brazil were identified. An ENM was generated using MaxENT software by combining principal component analysis results of 19 bioclim spatial layers, and 25 randomly selected subsets of the original list of 87 outbreaks. RESULTS: The final ENM predicted all areas where Brazilian outbreaks occurred, one out of five of the Colombian outbreak regions and identified new regions within Brazil that are suitable for transmission based on bioclimatic factors. Further, the most important factors in determining transmission suitability are precipitation of the wettest quarter, annual precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and mean diurnal range. CONCLUSION: The analyses here provide a means by which to study patterns of an emerging infectious disease and identify regions that are potentially suitable for its transmission, in spite of the paucity of high-quality critical data. Policy and methods for the control of infectious diseases often use a reactionary model, addressing diseases only after significant impact on human health has ensued. The methodology used in the present work allows the identification of areas where disease is likely to appear, which could be used for directed intervention.

Increased replicative fitness of a dengue virus 2 clade in native mosquitoes: potential contribution to a clade replacement event in Nicaragua.

UNLABELLED: The four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes (DENV serotype 1 [DENV-1] to DENV-4) are transmitted by Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes, causing up to 390 million DENV infections worldwide each year. We previously reported a clade replacement of the DENV-2 Asian-American genotype NI-1 clade by the NI-2B clade in Managua, Nicaragua. Here, we describe our studies of the replicative ability of NI-1 and NI-2B viruses in an A. aegypti cell line (Aag2) and A. aegypti mosquitoes reared from eggs collected in Managua. In coinfection experiments, several different pairs of NI-1 and NI-2B clinical isolates were used to infect Aag2 cells or blood-fed A. aegypti mosquitoes. Results consistently showed a significant replicative advantage of NI-2B over NI-1 viruses early after infection in vitro, and in mosquitoes, NI-2B viruses attained a higher replicative index than NI-1 isolates 3 to 7 days postinfection (dpi). At 7 dpi, NI-2B viruses displayed a significantly higher replicative index in legs and salivary glands; however, this advantage was lost by 14 and 21 dpi. We also found that the percentage of mosquitoes in which NI-2B viruses were dominant was significantly higher than that in which NI-1 viruses were dominant on day 7 but not at later time points. Taken together, these data demonstrate that clade NI-2B holds a replicative advantage over clade NI-1 early in infection that wanes at later time points. This early fitness advantage of NI-2B viruses over NI-1 viruses in the native vector, A. aegypti, suggests a shorter extrinsic incubation period for NI-2B viruses, which could have contributed to the clade replacement event in Managua. IMPORTANCE: Dengue virus (DENV), one of the most medically important arthropod-borne viruses, is transmitted to humans by Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Dengue epidemics continue to increase in frequency, geographic range, and severity and are a major public health concern. This is due to globalization, unplanned urbanization, and climate change, as well as host genetics and immune responses and viral genetic changes. DENV consists of four serotypes, in turn composed of genotypes and genetically distinct clades. What drives the frequent replacement of a previously circulating DENV clade by another is unclear. Here, we investigate the replicative fitness of two clades of DENV serotype 2 in Aedes aegypti cells and mosquitoes collected from the region where the viruses circulated and conclude that increased replicative fitness could have contributed to a DENV clade replacement event in Nicaragua. These findings provide insight into vector-driven evolution of DENV epidemics.

Surveillance for Emerging and Reemerging Pathogens Using Pathogen Agnostic Metagenomic Sequencing in the United States: A Critical Role for Federal Government Agencies.

The surveillance and identification of emerging, reemerging, and unknown infectious disease pathogens is essential to national public health preparedness and relies on fluidity, coordination, and interconnectivity between public and private pathogen surveillance systems and networks. Developing a national sentinel surveillance network with existing resources and infrastructure could increase efficiency, accelerate the identification of emerging public health threats, and support coordinated intervention strategies that reduce morbidity and mortality. However, implementing and sustaining programs to detect emerging and reemerging pathogens in humans using advanced molecular methods, such as metagenomic sequencing, requires making large investments in testing equipment and developing networks of clinicians, laboratory scientists, and bioinformaticians. In this study, we sought to gain an understanding of how federal government agencies currently support such pathogen agnostic testing of human specimens in the United States. We conducted a landscape analysis of federal agency websites for publicly accessible information on the availability and type of pathogen agnostic testing and details on flow of clinical specimens and data. The website analysis was supplemented by an expert review of results with representatives from the federal agencies. Operating divisions within the US Department of Health and Human Services and the US Department of Veterans Affairs have developed and sustained extensive clinical and research networks to obtain patient specimens and perform metagenomic sequencing. Metagenomic facilities supported by US agencies were not equally geographically distributed across the United States. Although many entities have work dedicated to metagenomics and/or support emerging infectious disease surveillance specimen collection, there was minimal formal collaboration across agencies.

Impacts of timing, length, and intensity of behavioral interventions to COVID-19 dynamics: North Carolina county-level examples.

We sought to examine how the impact of revocable behavioral interventions, e.g., shelter-in-place, varies throughout an epidemic, as well as the role that the proportion of susceptible individuals had on an intervention's impact. We estimated the theoretical impacts of start day, length, and intensity of interventions on disease transmission and illustrated them on COVID-19 dynamics in Wake County, North Carolina, to inform how interventions can be most effective. We used a Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) model to estimate epidemic curves with modifications to the disease transmission parameter (ß). We designed modifications to simulate events likely to increase transmission (e.g., long weekends, holiday seasons) or behavioral interventions likely to decrease it (e.g., shelter-in-place, masking). We compared the resultant curves' shape, timing, and cumulative case count to baseline and across other modified curves. Interventions led to changes in COVID-19 dynamics, including moving the peak's location, height, and width. The proportion susceptible, at the start day, strongly influenced their impact. Early interventions shifted the curve, while interventions near the peak modified shape and case count. For some scenarios, in which the transmission parameter was decreased, the final cumulative count increased over baseline. We showed that the timing of revocable interventions has a strong impact on their effect. The same intervention applied at different time points, corresponding to different proportions of susceptibility, resulted in qualitatively differential effects. Accurate estimation of the proportion susceptible is critical for understanding an intervention's impact. The findings presented here provide evidence of the importance of estimating the proportion of the population that is susceptible when predicting the impact of behavioral infection control interventions. Greater emphasis should be placed on the estimation of this epidemic component in intervention design and decision-making. Our results are generic and are applicable to other infectious disease epidemics, as well as to future waves of the current COVID-19 epidemic. Developed into a publicly available tool that allows users to modify the parameters to estimate impacts of different interventions, these models could aid in evaluating behavioral intervention options prior to their use and in predicting case increases from specific events.

Presumptive risk factors for monkeypox in rural communities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Monkeypox virus (MPXV), a close relative of Variola virus, is a zoonotic virus with an unknown reservoir. Interaction with infected wildlife, bites from peri-domestic animals, and bushmeat hunting are hypothesized routes of infection from wildlife to humans. Using a Risk Questionnaire, performed in monkeypox-affected areas of rural Democratic Republic of the Congo, we describe the lifestyles and demographics associated with presumptive risk factors for MPXV infection. We generated two indices to assess risk: Household Materials Index (HMI), a proxy for socioeconomic status of households and Risk Activity Index (RAI), which describes presumptive risk for animal-to-human transmission of MPXV. Based on participant self-reported activity patterns, we found that people in this population are more likely to visit the forest than a market to fulfill material needs, and that the reported occupation is limited in describing behavior of individuals may participate. Being bitten by rodents in the home was commonly reported, and this was significantly associated with a low HMI. The highest scoring RAI sub-groups were 'hunters' and males aged ≥ 18 years; however, several activities involving MPXV-implicated animals were distributed across all sub-groups. The current analysis may be useful in identifying at-risk groups and help to direct education, outreach and prevention efforts more efficiently.

Fragmentation of the Golgi apparatus provides replication membranes for human rhinovirus 1A.

All viruses with a positive-stranded RNA genome replicate their genomic RNA in association with membranes from the host cell. Here we demonstrate a novel organelle source of replication membranes for human rhinovirus 1A (HRV-1A). HRV-1A infection induces fragmentation of the Golgi apparatus, and Golgi membranes are rearranged into vesicles of approximately 250-500 nm diameter. The newly distributed Golgi membranes co-localize with viral RNA replication templates, strongly suggesting that the observed vesicles are the sites of viral RNA replication. Expression of the HRV-1A 3A protein induces alterations in the Golgi staining pattern similar to those seen during viral infection, and expressed 3A localizes to the Golgi-derived membranes. Taken together, these data show that in HRV-1A infection, the 3A protein plays a role in fragmenting the Golgi complex and generating vesicles that are used as the site of viral RNA replication.