The impact of natural disasters on the spread of COVID-19: a geospatial, agent-based epidemiology model.

Background: Natural disasters and infectious diseases result in widespread disruption to human health and livelihood. At the scale of a global pandemic, the co-occurrence of natural disasters is inevitable. However, the impact of natural disasters on the spread of COVID-19 has not been extensively evaluated through epidemiological modelling. Methods: We create an agent-based epidemiology model based on COVID-19 clinical, epidemiological, and geographic data. We first model 35 scenarios with varying natural disaster timing and duration for a COVID-19 outbreak in a theoretical region. We then evaluate the potential effect of an eruption of Vesuvius volcano on the spread of COVID-19 in Campania, Italy. Results: In a majority of cases, the occurrence of a natural disaster increases the number of disease related fatalities. For a natural disaster fifty days after infection onset, the median increase in fatalities is 2, 59, and 180% for a 2, 14, and 31-day long natural disaster respectively, when compared to the no natural disaster scenario. For the Campania case, the median increase in fatalities is 1.1 and 2.4 additional fatalities per 100,000 for eruptions on day 1 and 100 respectively, and 60.0 additional fatalities per 100,000 for an eruption close to the peak in infections (day 50). Conclusion: Our results show that the occurrence of a natural disaster in most cases leads to an increase in infection related fatalities, with wide variance in possible outcomes depending on the timing of the natural disaster relative to the peak in infections and the duration of the natural disaster. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12976-021-00151-0.

Artificial intelligence-enabled ophthalmoscopy for papilledema: a systematic review protocol.

Papilledema is a pathology delineated by the swelling of the optic disc secondary to raised intracranial pressure (ICP). Diagnosis by ophthalmoscopy can be useful in the timely stratification of further investigations, such as magnetic resonance imaging or computed tomography to rule out pathologies associated with raised ICP. In resource-limited settings, in particular, access to trained specialists or radiological imaging may not always be readily available, and accurate fundoscopy-based identification of papilledema could be a useful tool for triage and escalation to tertiary care centres. Artificial intelligence (AI) has seen a rise in neuro-ophthalmology research in recent years, but there are many barriers to the translation of AI to clinical practice. The objective of this systematic review is to garner and present a comprehensive overview of the existing evidence on the application of AI in ophthalmoscopy for papilledema, and to provide a valuable perspective on this emerging field that sits at the intersection of clinical medicine and computer science, highlighting possible avenues for future research in this domain.

Acute phenthoate self-poisoning: a prospective case series.

BACKGROUND: The clinical characteristics following self-poisoning with organophosphorus (OP) insecticides differs according to the insecticide ingested. Phenthoate is a dimethoxy WHO Hazard Class II OP pesticide with limited literature on its clinical characteristics and outcome. We aimed to better understand its clinical characteristics by studying patients with phenthoate self-poisoning in Sri Lanka. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of patients presenting with phenthoate self-poisoning to eight hospitals in Sri Lanka between 2002 and 2018. Clinical outcomes were recorded for each patient. Blood samples for measuring plasma phenthoate concentration, cholinesterase activity, and response to oximes were available for a very small number of patients recruited to a clinical trial. RESULTS: Two hundred and ninety-two patients who ingested agricultural phenthoate formulations were included in the study. Median time to admission was 3.9 (IQR 2.4 - 6.8) h. Forty-two (14.4%) patients were intubated, mostly (30/37, 81%) within 24 h of ingestion (median time to intubation 7.2 [IQR 2.6-20.9] h). Median duration of intubation was 74.8 (IQR 26.8-232.5) h; the longest duration in a survivor was 592 h. Nineteen died (case fatality 6.5%, 95% CI 4.0-10.0); median time to death was 37 (IQR 16 - 101.7) h. Median plasma phenthoate concentration in patients with samples (n = 81) was 135 (IQR 62.7-356.5) ng/mL (0.42 µmol/mL [0.2 to 1.1 µmol/mL]). Five of six patients receiving pralidoxime chloride 2 g showed an initial increase in AChE and BuChE activity that was not sustained despite an infusion of pralidoxime. CONCLUSION: Phenthoate self-poisoning has a 6.5% case fatality rate. Most patients who experience respiratory failure undergo early intubation; most deaths occurred among those patients who were intubated less than 24 h after ingestion. There was a non-sustained increase in cholinesterase activity with pralidoxime, but further studies are required to analyse the extent to which oximes are clinically effective in phenthoate self-poisoning.

Does oxidative stress contribute to toxicity in acute organophosphorus poisoning? - a systematic review of the evidence.

Introduction: Organophosphorus (OP) insecticide self-poisoning is a global problem, killing tens of thousands of people every year. Oxidative stress has been proposed to play a pathological role in OP poisoning, but whether it plays a direct toxic role is currently unclear.Objectives: To determine whether there is consistent evidence of oxidative stress in patients with acute OP insecticide self-poisoning, and whether there are animal or human trial data that indicate that treatment of oxidative stress provides clinical benefit, which would suggest a direct toxic effect of oxidative stress.Methods: We conducted a systematic review using the PubMed, EMBASE and MEDLINE databases, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic reviews, based upon the following search terms and keywords: "organophosphate poisoning", "oxidative stress" and "antioxidant". All articles relevant to the aims of the study were included. Articles related to chronic OP poisoning, to use of medicines without antioxidant benefits, or to subjects other than oxidative stress were excluded. The search returned 256 results of which 17 studies were considered relevant and grouped under the following categories: observational human studies (n = 11) and intervention studies in animals (n = 4) and humans (n = 2).Oxidative stress markers in human studies: Oxidative damage to lipids and proteins was reported in all eleven human studies. Eight of nine studies reported variable increases in a weak marker of lipid peroxidation, malondialdehyde. In two case-control studies, erythrocyte membrane malondialdehyde concentrations were 380% and 160% higher in cases than controls, while plasma malondialdehyde concentrations were ∼63% higher in cases than controls in three case-control studies. In a prospective study, plasma malondialdehyde did not increase significantly from baseline in moderate or severely poisoned patients. Five case-control studies measured thiol residues as markers of protein oxidative damage and found variable changes after poisoning. No evidence of oxidative DNA damage was found in the one study that investigated it.Antioxidant intervention studies in animals: After treatment with an antioxidant, all four studies showed an improvement in either markers of oxidative damage or antioxidant activity. One mouse study with a relatively low risk of bias showed that administration of acetylcysteine 200 mg/kg reduced malondialdehyde by 35% and increased survival by more than 60%.Antioxidant intervention studies in humans: We found two small randomised controlled trials reporting the use of acetylcysteine as an adjunct to standard treatment in acute OP poisoning. The trials found that acetylcysteine reduced atropine requirements by 77% and 55%, but did not affect clinically relevant outcomes.Conclusions: Several studies showed evidence of OP insecticide-induced oxidative damage and antioxidant activity, suggesting that endogenous antioxidant defences are triggered in acute OP poisoning. However, the markers of lipid peroxidation used were weak, there was high inter-individual variability between studies in results and quality, and marked variation between the OP insecticides involved. Animal data provide some evidence that antioxidants alleviate adverse effects of acute poisoning, suggesting that oxidative stress may directly cause clinical harm. Acetylcysteine appeared beneficial in animal studies, but this could be mediated via increased synthesis of the endogenous detoxifying agent, glutathione, rather than through a direct antioxidant effect. The two human clinical studies were too small to provide any clear evidence to support the use of acetylcysteine in OP poisoning. Further research into the mechanisms of oxidative stress in acute OP poisoning, combined with large unambiguous clinical trials of antioxidants, are required before they can be used routinely in treatment.