Analysis of Multiple Causes of Death: A Review of Methods and Practices.

BACKGROUND: Research and reporting of mortality indicators typically focus on a single underlying cause of death selected from multiple causes recorded on a death certificate. The need to incorporate the multiple causes in mortality statistics-reflecting increasing multimorbidity and complex causation patterns-is recognized internationally. This review aims to identify and appraise relevant analytical methods and practices related to multiple causes. METHODS: We searched Medline, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from their incept ion to December 2020 without language restrictions, supplemented by consultation with international experts. Eligible articles analyzed multiple causes of death from death certificates. The process identified 4,080 items of which we reviewed 434 full-text articles. RESULTS: Most articles we reviewed (76%, n = 332) were published since 2001. The majority of articles examined mortality by "any- mention" of the cause of death (87%, n = 377) and assessed pairwise combinations of causes (57%, n = 245). Since 2001, applications of methods emerged to group deaths based on common cause patterns using, for example, cluster analysis (2%, n = 9), and application of multiple-cause weights to re-evaluate mortality burden (1%, n = 5). We describe multiple-cause methods applied to specific research objectives for approaches emerging recently. CONCLUSION: This review confirms rapidly increasing international interest in the analysis of multiple causes of death and provides the most comprehensive overview, to our knowledge, of methods and practices to date. Available multiple-cause methods are diverse but suit a range of research objectives. With greater availability of data and technology, these could be further developed and applied across a range of settings.

Comparative performance of verbal autopsy methods in identifying causes of adult mortality: A case study in India.

Background & objectives: Cause of death assignment from verbal autopsy (VA) questionnaires is conventionally accomplished through physician review. However, since recently, computer softwares have been developed to assign the cause of death. The present study evaluated the performance of computer software in assigning the cause of death from the VA, as compared to physician review. Methods: VA of 600 adult deaths was conducted using open- and close-ended questionnaires in Nandpur Kalour Block of Punjab, India. Entire VA forms were used by two physicians independently to assign the cause of death using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD)-10 codes. In case of disagreement between them, reconciliation was done, and in cases of persistent disagreements finally, adjudication was done by a third physician. InterVA-4-generated causes from close-ended questionnaires were compared using Kappa statistics with causes assigned by physicians using a questionnaire having both open- and close-ended questions. At the population level, Cause-Specific Mortality Fraction (CSMF) accuracy and P-value from McNemar's paired Chi-square were calculated. CSMF accuracy indicates the absolute deviation of a set of proportions of causes of death out of the total number of deaths between the two methods. Results: The overall agreement between InterVA-4 and physician coding was 'fair' (κ=0.42; 95% confidence interval 0.38, 0.46). CSMF accuracy was found to be 0.71. The differences in proportions from the two methods were statistically different as per McNemar's paired Chi-square test for ischaemic heart diseases, liver cirrhosis and maternal deaths. Interpretation & conclusions: In comparison to physicians, assignment of causes of death by InterVA- 4 was only 'fair'. Hence, it may be appropriate to continue with physician review as the optimal option available in the current scenario.

Changes in proportional mortality from diabetes and circulatory disease in Mauritius and Fiji: possible effects of coding and certification.

BACKGROUND: Many developing countries are experiencing the epidemiological transition, with the majority of deaths attributed to cardiovascular disease, cancer, Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and others. In some countries, large proportional mortality attributed to diabetes is evident in official mortality statistics, with Mauritius and Fiji rated as the highest in the world. METHODS: This study investigates trends in recorded diabetes and cardiovascular disease mortality in Mauritius and Fiji under coding from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) versions 9 and 10, using mortality data reported from these countries to the World Health Organization (WHO). RESULTS: In Mauritius over 1981-2004, T2DM proportional mortality varied between 4% and 7% in males (M) and 5% and 9% in females (F). In 2005 there was a sudden increase to M 20% and F 25%, which continued to M 25% and F 30% by 2012. Over 1981-2004 the proportion of circulatory disease mortality rose from 44% to 49% in males, and from 46% to 57% in females. In 2005, circulatory disease mortality proportions fell precipitously to 34% in males and 37% in females, and declined to 31% and 34% by 2013. ICD-10 coding was introduced in 2005. In Fiji, sharp rises in proportional T2DM mortality from 3% in both sexes in 2001 to M 15% and F 20% in 2002 were followed by more gradual trend increases to M 20% and F 26% by 2012-13. Circulatory disease proportions fell steeply from M 57% and F 53% in 2001 to M 44% and M 38% by 2004, with subsequent less steep declines to M 39% and F 30% by 2012. ICD-10 coding was introduced in 2001. CONCLUSIONS: Large, abrupt changes in diabetes and circulatory disease proportional mortality in Fiji and Mauritius coincided with the local introduction of ICD-10 coding in different years. There is also evidence for diabetes-related misclassification of underlying cause of death in Australia and the USA. These artefacts can undermine accurate monitoring of cause of death for evaluation of effectiveness of prevention and control, especially of circulatory disease mortality which is demonstrably reversible in populations.

Cause-specific mortality estimates for Malaysia in 2013: results from a national sample verification study using medical record review and verbal autopsy.

BACKGROUND: Mortality indicators are essential for monitoring population health. Although Malaysia has a functional death registration system, the quality of information on causes of death still needs improvement, since approximately 30% of deaths are classified to poorly defined causes. This study was conducted to verify registered causes in a sample of deaths in 2013 and utilise the findings to estimate cause-specific mortality indicators for Malaysia in 2013. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study involving a nationally representative sample of 14,497 deaths distributed across 19 districts. Registered causes of deaths were verified using standard medical record review protocols for hospital deaths, and locally adapted international standard verbal autopsy procedures for deaths outside hospitals. The findings were used to measure the validity and reliability of the registration data, as well as to establish plausible cause-specific mortality fractions for hospital and non-hospital deaths, which were subsequently used as the basis for estimating national cause-specific mortality indicators. RESULTS: The overall response rate for the study was 67%. Verified causes of 5041 hospital deaths and 3724 deaths outside hospitals were used to derive national mortality estimates for 2013 by age, sex and cause. The study was able to reclassify most of the ill-defined deaths to a specific cause. The leading causes of deaths for males were Ischaemic Heart Disease (15.4%), Cerebrovascular diseases (13.7%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (8.5%) and Road Traffic Accident (8.0%). Among females, the leading causes were Cerebrovascular diseases (18.3%), Ischaemic Heart Disease (12.7%), Lower Respiratory Infections (11.5%) and Diabetes Mellitus (7.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Investigation of registered causes of death using verbal autopsy and medical record review yielded adequate information to enable estimation of cause-specific mortality indicators in Malaysia. Strengthening the national mortality statistics system must be made a priority as it is a core data source for policy and evaluation of the public health and healthcare sectors in Malaysia.

The WHO 2016 verbal autopsy instrument: An international standard suitable for automated analysis by InterVA, InSilicoVA, and Tariff 2.0.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a practical method for determining probable causes of death at the population level in places where systems for medical certification of cause of death are weak. VA methods suitable for use in routine settings, such as civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems, have developed rapidly in the last decade. These developments have been part of a growing global momentum to strengthen CRVS systems in low-income countries. With this momentum have come pressure for continued research and development of VA methods and the need for a single standard VA instrument on which multiple automated diagnostic methods can be developed. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In 2016, partners harmonized a WHO VA standard instrument that fully incorporates the indicators necessary to run currently available automated diagnostic algorithms. The WHO 2016 VA instrument, together with validated approaches to analyzing VA data, offers countries solutions to improving information about patterns of cause-specific mortality. This VA instrument offers the opportunity to harmonize the automated diagnostic algorithms in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Despite all improvements in design and technology, VA is only recommended where medical certification of cause of death is not possible. The method can nevertheless provide sufficient information to guide public health priorities in communities in which physician certification of deaths is largely unavailable. The WHO 2016 VA instrument, together with validated approaches to analyzing VA data, offers countries solutions to improving information about patterns of cause-specific mortality.

Validation of verbal autopsy methods using hospital medical records: a case study in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Information on causes of death (COD) is crucial for measuring the health outcomes of populations and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. In many countries such as Vietnam where the civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system is dysfunctional, information on vital events will continue to rely on verbal autopsy (VA) methods. This study assesses the validity of VA methods used in Vietnam, and provides recommendations on methods for implementing VA validation studies in Vietnam. METHODS: This validation study was conducted on a sample of 670 deaths from a recent VA study in Quang Ninh province. The study covered 116 cases from this sample, which met three inclusion criteria: a) the death occurred within 30 days of discharge after last hospitalisation, and b) medical records (MRs) for the deceased were available from respective hospitals, and c) the medical record mentioned that the patient was terminally ill at discharge. For each death, the underlying cause of death (UCOD) identified from MRs was compared to the UCOD from VA. The validity of VA diagnoses for major causes of death was measured using sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV). RESULTS: The sensitivity of VA was at least 75% in identifying some leading CODs such as stroke, road traffic accidents and several site-specific cancers. However, sensitivity was less than 50% for other important causes including ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, and diabetes. Overall, there was 57% agreement between UCOD from VA and MR, which increased to 76% when multiple causes from VA were compared to UCOD from MR. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that VA is a valid method to ascertain UCOD in contexts such as Vietnam. Furthermore, within cultural contexts in which patients prefer to die at home instead of a healthcare facility, using the available MRs as the gold standard may be meaningful to the extent that recall bias from the interval between last hospital discharge and death can be minimized. Therefore, future studies should evaluate validity of MRs as a gold standard for VA studies in contexts similar to the Vietnamese context.

HEALTH RISK TRANSITION AND LOW MORTALITY PATTERNS AMONG A NATIONAL COHORT OF ASPIRATIONAL THAI OPEN UNIVERSITY STUDENTS.

In the last 50 years Thailand has achieved advanced demographic and health transitions. Many infectious diseases are controlled and infant and maternal mortality rates are among the lowest in the region. Within such a low mortality setting, however, substantial variations in health persist, with education being a major driver. This paper assesses the ongoing mortality transition in Thailand, examining relationships between risk factors and mortality outcomes among a large nationwide cohort of distance-learning Open University students, as well as examining the differential mortality benefit enjoyed by this educated group when compared with the general Thai population. The cohort comprised 87,151 participants, who in 2005 completed a questionnaire collecting detailed information on socio-demographics, health behaviours and health outcomes. Participants were aged 15-87 at baseline and lived in all regions of the country. Cohort members' citizen identification numbers were matched with official death registration records to identify mortality among participants. A total of 1401 deaths were identified up to November 2016. Results show cohort study participants experiencing mortality at approximately one-third of the rate of the general population in the same age and sex groups. The gap between the mortality rates in the two groups widened with increased age. Differential risk factor prevalence among the two populations, particularly lower overweight and obesity prevalence and lower cigarette smoking rates in the cohort, can explain some of this variation. The largely unmeasurable effect of aspiration for life improvement through distance education while embedded in their communities is shown by this study to have a powerful effect on mortality risk. With overall education levels, including higher education, rising in Thailand this growing group of educated aspirational Thais may represent future trends in Thai mortality. Identifying the drivers and characteristics of this mortality variation can help inform policies to provide health services and to help reduce mortality in the whole population.

Validation of verbal autopsy: determination of cause of deaths in Malaysia 2013.

BACKGROUND: Mortality statistics by age, sex and cause are the foundation of basic health data required for health status assessment, epidemiological research and formation of health policy. Close to half the deaths in Malaysia occur outside a health facility, are not attended by medical personnel, and are given a lay opinion as to the cause of death, leading to poor quality of data from vital registration. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a very useful tool in diagnosing broad causes of deaths for events that occur outside health facilities. This article reports the development of the VA methods and our principal finding from a validation study. METHODS: A cross sectional study on nationally representative sample deaths that occurred in Malaysia during 2013 was used. A VA questionnaire suitable for local use was developed. Trained field interviewers visited the family members of the deceased at their homes and conducted face to face interviews with the next of kin. Completed questionnaires were reviewed by trained physicians who assigned multiple and underlying causes. Reference diagnoses for validation were obtained from review of medical records (MR) available for a sample of the overall study deaths. RESULTS: Corresponding MR diagnosis with matched sample of the VA diagnosis were available in 2172 cases for the validation study. Sensitivity scores were good (>75%) for transport accidents and certain cancers. Moderate sensitivity (50% - 75%) was obtained for ischaemic heart disease (64%) and cerebrovascular disease (72%). The validation sample for deaths due to major causes such as ischaemic heart disease, pneumonia, breast cancer and transport accidents show low cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) changes. The scores obtained for the top 10 leading site-specific cancers ranged from average to good. CONCLUSION: We can conclude that VA is suitable for implementation for deaths outside the health facilities in Malaysia. This would reduce ill-defined mortality causes in vital registration data, and yield more accurate national mortality statistics.

Estimating mortality using data from civil registration: a cross-sectional study in India.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the design and operational status of India's civil registration and vital statistics system and facilitate the system's development into an accurate and reliable source of mortality data. METHODS: We assessed the national civil registration and vital statistics system's legal framework, administrative structure and design through document review. We did a cross-sectional study for the year 2013 at national level and in Punjab state to assess the quality of the system's mortality data through analyses of life tables and investigation of the completeness of death registration and the proportion of deaths assigned ill-defined causes. We interviewed registrars, medical officers and coders in Punjab state to assess their knowledge and practice. FINDINGS: Although we found the legal framework and system design to be appropriate, data collection was based on complex intersectoral collaborations at state and local level and the collected data were found to be of poor quality. The registration data were inadequate for a robust estimate of mortality at national level. A medically certified cause of death was only recorded for 965,992 (16.8%) of the 5,735,082 deaths registered. CONCLUSION: The data recorded by India's civil registration and vital statistics system in 2011 were incomplete. If improved, the system could be used to reliably estimate mortality. We recommend improving political support and intersectoral coordination, capacity building, computerization and state-level initiatives to ensure that every death is registered and that reliable causes of death are recorded - at least within an adequate sample of registration units within each state.

Mortality and life expectancy in Kiribati based on analysis of reported deaths.

BACKGROUND: Kiribati is an atoll country of 103,058 (2010 Census) situated in the central Pacific. Previous mortality estimates have been derived from demographic analyses of census data. This is the first mortality analysis based on reported deaths. METHODS: Recorded deaths were from the Ministry of Health and the Civil Registration Office for 2000-2009; populations were from the 2000, 2005, and 2010 censuses. Duplicate death records were removed by matching deaths within and between data sources using a combination of names, date of death, age, sex, island of residence, and cause of death. Probability of dying <5 years (5q0) and 15-59 years (45q15), and life expectancy (LE) at birth, were computed with 95 % confidence intervals. These data were compared with previous census analyses. RESULTS: There were 8,681 unique deaths reported over the decade 2000-2009 in Kiribati. The reconciled mortality data indicate 5q0 for both sexes of 64 per 1,000 live births in 2000-2004, and 51 for 2005-2009 (assuming no under-enumeration), compared with 69 and 59 for comparable periods from the 2005 and 2010 census analyses (children ever-born/children surviving method). Based on reconciled deaths, LE at birth (e0) for males was 54 years for 2000-2004 and 55 years in 2005-2009, five years lower than the 2005 and 2010 census estimates for comparable periods of 59 and 58 years. Female LE was 62 years for 2000-2004 and 63 years for 2005-2009, two-three years less than estimates for comparable periods of 63 and 66 years from the 2005 and 2010 census analyses. Adult mortality (45q15) was 47-48 % in males and 27-28 % in females from reconciled mortality over 2000-2009, higher than census estimates of 34-38 % in males and 21-26 % in females for the same periods. The reconciled data are very likely to be incomplete and actual mortality higher and life expectancy lower than reported here. CONCLUSION: This analysis indicates higher mortality than indirect demographic methods from the 2005 and 2010 Censuses. Reported deaths are most likely under-reported; especially 5q0, as many early neonatal deaths are probably classified as stillbirths. These analyses suggest that the health situation in Kiribati is more serious and urgent than previously appreciated.

Causes of death in Vanuatu.

BACKGROUND: The population of the Pacific Melanesian country of Vanuatu was 234,000 at the 2009 census. Apart from subsistence activities, economic activity includes tourism and agriculture. Current completeness of vital registration is considered too low to be usable for national statistics; mortality and life expectancy (LE) are derived from indirect demographic estimates from censuses/surveys. Some cause of death (CoD) data are available to provide information on major causes of premature death. METHODS: Deaths 2001-2007 were coded for cause (ICDv10) for ages 0-59 years from: hospital separations (HS) (n = 636), hospital medical certificates (MC) of death (n = 1,169), and monthly reports from community health facilities (CHF) (n = 1,212). Ill-defined causes were 3 % for hospital deaths and 20 % from CHF. Proportional mortality was calculated by cause (excluding ill-defined) and age group (0-4, 5-14 years), and also by sex for 15-59 years. From total deaths by broad age group and sex from 1999 and 2009 census analyses, community deaths were estimated by deduction of hospital deaths MC. National proportional mortality by cause was estimated by a weighted average of MC and CHF deaths. RESULTS: National estimates indicate main causes of deaths <5 years were: perinatal disorders (45 %) and malaria, diarrhea, and pneumonia (27 %). For 15-59 years, main causes of male deaths were: circulatory disease 27 %, neoplasms 13 %, injury 13 %, liver disease 10 %, infection 10 %, diabetes 7 %, and chronic respiratory disease 7 %; and for females: neoplasms 29 %, circulatory disease 15 %, diabetes 10 %, infection 9 %, and maternal deaths 8 %. Infection included tuberculosis, malaria, and viral hepatitis. Liver disease (including hepatitis and cancer) accounted for 18 % of deaths in adult males and 9 % in females. Non-communicable disease (NCD), including circulatory disease, diabetes, neoplasm, and chronic respiratory disease, accounted for 52 % of premature deaths in adult males and 60 % in females. Injuries accounted for 13 % in adult males and 6 % in females. Maternal deaths translate into an annual maternal mortality ratio of 130/100,000 for the period. CONCLUSION: Vanuatu manifests a double burden of disease with significant proportional mortality from perinatal disorders and infection/pneumonia <5 years and maternal mortality, coupled with significant proportional mortality in adults (15-59 years) from cardiovascular disease (CVD), neoplasms, and diabetes.

Reliable mortality statistics for Turkey: Are we there yet?

BACKGROUND: The Turkish government has implemented several reforms to improve the Turkish Statistical Institute Death Reporting System (TURKSTAT-DRS) since 2009. However, there has been no assessment to evaluate the impact of these reforms on causes of death statistics. This study attempted to analyse the impact of these reforms on the TURKSTAT-DRS for Turkey, and in the case of Izmir, one of the most developed provinces in Turkey. METHODS: The evaluation framework comprised three main components each with specific criteria. Firstly, data from TURKSTAT for Turkey and Izmir for the periods 2001-2008 and 2009-2013 were assessed in terms of the following dimensions that represent quality of mortality statistics (a. completeness of death registration, b. trends in proportions of deaths with ill-defined causes). Secondly, the quality of information recorded on individual death certificates from Izmir in 2010 was analysed for a. missing information, b. timeliness of death notifications and c. characteristics of deaths with ill-defined causes. Finally, TURKSTAT data were analysed to estimate life tables and summary mortality indicators for Turkey and Izmir, as well as the leading causes-of-death in Turkey in 2013. RESULTS: Registration of adult deaths in Izmir as well as at the national level for Turkey has considerably improved since the introduction of reforms in 2009, along with marked decline in the proportions of deaths assigned ill-defined causes. Death certificates from Izmir indicated significant gaps in recorded information for demographic as well as epidemiological variables, particularly for infant deaths, and in the detailed recording of causes of death. Life expectancy at birth estimated from local data is 3-4 years higher than similar estimates for Turkey from international studies, and this requires further investigation and confirmation. CONCLUSION: The TURKSTAT-DRS is now an improved source of mortality and cause of death statistics for Turkey. The reliability and validity of TURKSTAT data needs to be established through a detailed research program to evaluate completeness of death registration and validity of registered causes of death. Similar evaluation and data analysis of mortality indicators is required at regular intervals at national and sub-national level, to increase confidence in their utility as primary data for epidemiology and health policy.

An updated method for risk adjustment in outcomes research.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate why meta-analytic methods need modification before they can be used to aggregate rates or effect sizes in outcomes research, under the constraint of no common underlying effect or rate. METHODS: Studies are presented that require different types of risk adjustment. First, we demonstrate using rates that external risk adjustment through standardization can be achieved using modified meta-analytic methods, but only with a model that allows input of user-defined weights. Next, we extend these observations to internal risk adjustment of comparative effect sizes. RESULTS: We show that this procedure produces identical results to conventional age standardization if a rate is being standardized for age. We also demonstrate that risk adjustment of effect sizes can be achieved with this modified method but cannot be done using standard meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that this method allows risk adjustment to be performed in situations in which currently the fixed- or random-effects methods of meta-analysis are inappropriately used. The latter should be avoided when the underlying aim is risk adjustment rather than meta-analysis.

Knowledge of Medical Education on Maternal and Child Primary-Care Among Physicians: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Objectives: To assess the pre-training knowledge of Commune Health Stations (CHSs) physicians in Vietnam on pregnancy and child care. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted and a pre-training questionnaire was administered with physicians working at CHSs in three mountainous provinces of northern Vietnam. Calculated mean knowledge score and estimated adjusted odds ratios (AOR) to compare the relative odds of occurrence of the outcome "answering more than half of questions correct," given exposure to the physicians' characteristics. Results: A total of 302 CHS physicians participated. The mean number of correct answers across all participants was 5.4 out of 11. Female physicians are 2.20 (95% CI: 1.35-3.59, p = 0.002) times more likely to answer correctly than their male counterparts. Physicians aged 35 years or more were significantly less likely to answer correctly (AOR 0.35, 95% CI: 0.15-0.81, p = 0.014). Conclusion: The study found that participating physicians possessed relatively low knowledge of pregnancy and child care. The study also found significant disparities in this knowledge according to the physicians' characteristics. Thus, it is recommended the requirement for continuing targeted medical education to improve doctors' proficiency in these areas.

Risk factors for chronic disease in Viet Nam: a review of the literature.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic diseases account for most of the disease burden in low- and middle-income countries, particularly those in Asia. We reviewed literature on chronic disease risk factors in Viet Nam to identify patterns and data gaps. METHODS: All population-based studies published from 2000 to 2012 that reported chronic disease risk factors were considered. We used standard chronic disease terminology to search PubMed and assessed titles, abstracts, and articles for eligibility for inclusion. We summarized relevant study information in tables listing available studies, risk factors measured, and the prevalence of these risk factors. RESULTS: We identified 23 studies conducted before 2010. The most common age range studied was 25 to 64 years. Sample sizes varied, and sample frames were national in 5 studies. A combination of behavioral, physical, and biological risk factors was studied. Being overweight or obese was the most common risk factor studied (n = 14), followed by high blood pressure (n = 11) and tobacco use (n = 10). Tobacco and alcohol use were high among men, and tobacco use may be increasing among Vietnamese women. High blood pressure is common; however, people's knowledge that they have high blood pressure may be low. A high proportion of diets do not meet international criteria for fruit and vegetable consumption. Prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing. None of the studies evaluated measured dietary patterns or total caloric intake, and only 1 study measured dietary salt intake. CONCLUSION: Risk factors for chronic diseases are common in Viet Nam; however, more recent and context-specific information is required for planning and monitoring interventions to reduce risk factors and chronic disease in this country.

Implementation research for developing Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) Systems: lessons from Indonesia.

Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) systems are the optimal source for data on births, deaths and causes of death for health policy, programme evaluation and research. In Indonesia, indicators such as life expectancy at birth, childhood and maternal mortality rates and cause-specific death rates need to be routinely monitored for national health policy. However, the CRVS system is not yet producing reliable vital statistics, which creates a challenge for evidence-based health action. In 2019, the Indonesian government released a national strategy for the CRVS system, with targets for improved coverage and data quality by 2024. This article describes findings from a programme of formative and implementation research to guide the application of the national strategy. At first, a detailed CRVS assessment and gap analysis were undertaken using an international framework. The assessment findings were used to develop a revised business process model for reporting deaths and their causes at village, subdistrict and district level. In addition, a field instruction manual was also developed to guide personnel in implementation. Two field sites in Java-Malang District and Kudus Regency were selected for pilot testing the reporting procedures, and relevant site preparation and training were carried out. Data compilations for Malang in 2019 and Kudus in 2020 were analysed to derive mortality indicators. High levels of death reporting completeness (83% to 89%) were reported from both districts, along with plausible cause-specific mortality profiles, although the latter need further validation. The study findings establish the feasibility of implementing revised death reporting procedures at the local level, as well as demonstrate sustainability through institutionalisation and capacity building, and can be used to accelerate further development of the CRVS system in Indonesia.

Quantifying cause-related mortality in Australia, incorporating multiple causes: observed patterns, trends and practical considerations.

BACKGROUND: Mortality statistics using a single underlying cause of death (UC) are key health indicators. Rising multimorbidity and chronic disease mean that deaths increasingly involve multiple conditions. However, additional causes reported on death certificates are rarely integrated into mortality indicators, partly due to complexities in data and methods. This study aimed to assess trends and patterns in cause-related mortality in Australia, integrating multiple causes (MC) of death. METHODS: Deaths (n = 1 773 399) in Australia (2006-17) were mapped to 136 ICD-10-based groups and MC indicators applied. Age-standardized cause-related rates (deaths/100 000) based on the UC (ASRUC) were compared with rates based on any mention of the cause (ASRAM) using rate ratios (RR = ASRAM/ASRUC) and to rates based on weighting multiple contributing causes (ASRW). RESULTS: Deaths involved on average 3.4 causes in 2017; the percentage with >4 causes increased from 20.9 (2006) to 24.4 (2017). Ischaemic heart disease (ASRUC = 73.3, ASRAM = 135.8, ASRW = 63.5), dementia (ASRUC = 51.1, ASRAM = 98.1, ASRW = 52.1) and cerebrovascular diseases (ASRUC = 39.9, ASRAM = 76.7, ASRW = 33.5) ranked as leading causes by all methods. Causes with high RR included hypertension (ASRUC = 2.2, RR = 35.5), atrial fibrillation (ASRUC = 8.0, RR = 6.5) and diabetes (ASRUC = 18.5, RR = 3.5); the corresponding ASRW were 12.5, 12.6 and 24.0, respectively. Renal failure, atrial fibrillation and hypertension ranked among the 10 leading causes by ASRAM and ASRW but not by ASRUC. Practical considerations in working with MC data are discussed. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the similarities in leading causes under the three methods, with integration of MC several preventable diseases emerged as leading causes. MC analyses offer a richer additional perspective for population health monitoring and policy development.

Evaluation of methods for assigning causes of death from verbal autopsies in India.

Background: Physician-coded verbal autopsy (PCVA) is the most widely used method to determine causes of death (COD) in countries where medical certification of death is low. Computer-coded verbal autopsy (CCVA), an alternative method to PCVA for assigning the COD is considered to be efficient and cost-effective. However, the performance of CCVA as compared to PCVA is yet to be established in the Indian context. Methods: We evaluated the performance of PCVA and three CCVA methods i.e., InterVA 5, InSilico, and Tariff 2.0 on verbal autopsies done using the WHO 2016 VA tool on 2,120 reference standard cases developed from five tertiary care hospitals of Delhi. PCVA methodology involved dual independent review with adjudication, where required. Metrics to assess performance were Cause Specific Mortality Fraction (CSMF), sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), CSMF Accuracy, and Kappa statistic. Results: In terms of the measures of the overall performance of COD assignment methods, for CSMF Accuracy, the PCVA method achieved the highest score of 0.79, followed by 0.67 for Tariff_2.0, 0.66 for Inter-VA and 0.62 for InSilicoVA. The PCVA method also achieved the highest agreement (57%) and Kappa scores (0.54). The PCVA method showed the highest sensitivity for 15 out of 20 causes of death. Conclusion: Our study found that the PCVA method had the best performance out of all the four COD assignment methods that were tested in our study sample. In order to improve the performance of CCVA methods, multicentric studies with larger sample sizes need to be conducted using the WHO VA tool.

Mortality measures from sample-based surveillance: evidence of the epidemiological transition in Viet Nam.

OBJECTIVE: To report methods and results from a national sample mortality surveillance programme implemented in Viet Nam in 2009. METHODS: A national sample of 192 communes located in 16 provinces and covering a population of approximately 2.6 million was selected using multi-stage cluster sampling. Deaths for 2009 were identified from several local data sources. Record reconciliation and capture-recapture methods were used to compile data and assess completeness of the records. Life tables were computed using reported and adjusted age-specific death rates. Each death was followed up by verbal autopsy to ascertain the probable cause(s) of death. Underlying causes were certified and coded according to international guidelines. FINDINGS: A total of 9921 deaths were identified in the sample population. Completeness of death records was estimated to be 81%. Adjusted life expectancies at birth were 70.4 and 78.7 years for males and females, respectively. Stroke was the leading cause of death in both sexes. Other prominent causes were road traffic accidents, cancers and HIV infection in males, and cardiovascular conditions, pneumonia and diabetes in females. CONCLUSION: Viet Nam is undergoing the epidemiological transition. Although data are relatively complete, they could be further improved through strengthened local collaboration. Medical certification for deaths in hospitals, and shorter recall periods for verbal autopsy interviews would improve cause of death ascertainment.