Real-time forecasting of COVID-19-related hospital strain in France using a non-Markovian mechanistic model.

Projects such as the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub publish forecasts on the national level for new deaths, new cases, and hospital admissions, but not direct measurements of hospital strain like critical care bed occupancy at the sub-national level, which is of particular interest to health professionals for planning purposes. We present a sub-national French framework for forecasting hospital strain based on a non-Markovian compartmental model, its associated online visualisation tool and a retrospective evaluation of the real-time forecasts it provided from January to December 2021 by comparing to three baselines derived from standard statistical forecasting methods (a naive model, auto-regression, and an ensemble of exponential smoothing and ARIMA). In terms of median absolute error for forecasting critical care unit occupancy at the two-week horizon, our model only outperformed the naive baseline for 4 out of 14 geographical units and underperformed compared to the ensemble baseline for 5 of them at the 90% confidence level (n = 38). However, for the same level at the 4 week horizon, our model was never statistically outperformed for any unit despite outperforming the baselines 10 times spanning 7 out of 14 geographical units. This implies modest forecasting utility for longer horizons which may justify the application of non-Markovian compartmental models in the context of hospital-strain surveillance for future pandemics.

Exceptional but vulnerable microbial diversity in coral reef animal surface microbiomes.

Coral reefs host hundreds of thousands of animal species that are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic disturbances. These animals host microbial communities at their surface, playing crucial roles for their fitness. However, the diversity of such microbiomes is mostly described in a few coral species and still poorly defined in other invertebrates and vertebrates. Given the diversity of animal microbiomes, and the diversity of host species inhabiting coral reefs, the contribution of such microbiomes to the total microbial diversity of coral reefs could be important, yet potentially vulnerable to the loss of animal species. Analysis of the surface microbiome from 74 taxa, including teleost fishes, hard and soft corals, crustaceans, echinoderms, bivalves and sponges, revealed that more than 90% of their prokaryotic phylogenetic richness was specific and not recovered in surrounding plankton. Estimate of the total richness associated with coral reef animal surface microbiomes reached up to 2.5% of current estimates of Earth prokaryotic diversity. Therefore, coral reef animal surfaces should be recognized as a hotspot of marine microbial diversity. Loss of the most vulnerable reef animals expected under present-day scenarios of reef degradation would induce an erosion of 28% of the prokaryotic richness, with unknown consequences on coral reef ecosystem functioning.

Geological gas-storage shapes deep life.

Around the world, several dozen deep sedimentary aquifers are being used for storage of natural gas. Ad hoc studies of the microbial ecology of some of them have suggested that sulfate reducing and methanogenic microorganisms play a key role in how these aquifers' communities function. Here, we investigate the influence of gas storage on these two metabolic groups by using high-throughput sequencing and show the importance of sulfate-reducing Desulfotomaculum and a new monophyletic methanogenic group. Aquifer microbial diversity was significantly related to the geological level. The distance to the stored natural gas affects the ratio of sulfate-reducing Firmicutes to deltaproteobacteria. In only one aquifer, the methanogenic archaea dominate the sulfate-reducers. This aquifer was used to store town gas (containing at least 50% H2 ) around 50 years ago. The observed decrease of sulfates in this aquifer could be related to stimulation of subsurface sulfate-reducers. These results suggest that the composition of the microbial communities is impacted by decades old transient gas storage activity. The tremendous stability of these gas-impacted deep subsurface microbial ecosystems suggests that in situ biotic methanation projects in geological reservoirs may be sustainable over time.

Deep ocean prokaryotic communities are remarkably malleable when facing long-term starvation.

The bathypelagic ocean is one of the largest ecosystems on Earth and sustains half of the ocean's microbial activity. This microbial activity strongly relies on surface-derived particles, but there is growing evidence that the carbon released through solubilization of these particles may not be sufficient to meet the energy demands of deep ocean prokaryotes. To explore how bathypelagic prokaryotes respond to the absence of external inputs of carbon, we followed the long-term (1 year) dynamics of an enclosed community. Despite the lack of external energy supply, we observed a continuous succession of active prokaryotic phylotypes, which was driven by recruitment of taxa from the seed bank (i.e., initially rare operational taxonomic units [OTUs]). A single OTU belonging to Marine Group I of Thaumarchaeota, which was originally rare, dominated the microbial community for ∼ 4 months and played a fundamental role in this succession likely by introducing new organic carbon through chemolithoautotrophy. This carbon presumably produced a priming effect, because after the decline of Thaumarchaeota, the diversity and metabolic potential of the community increased back to the levels present at the start of the experiment. Our study demonstrates the profound versatility of deep microbial communities when facing organic carbon deprivation.

Metal contaminations impact archaeal community composition, abundance and function in remote alpine lakes.

Using the 16S rRNA and mcrA genes, we investigated the composition, abundance and activity of sediment archaeal communities within 18 high-mountain lakes under contrasted metal levels from different origins (bedrock erosion, past-mining activities and atmospheric depositions). Bathyarchaeota, Euryarchaeota and Woesearchaeota were the major phyla found at the meta-community scale, representing 48%, 18.3% and 15.2% of the archaeal community respectively. Metals were equally important as physicochemical variables in explaining the assemblage of archaeal communities and their abundance. Methanogenesis appeared as a process of central importance in the carbon cycle within sediments of alpine lakes as indicated by the absolute abundance of methanogen 16S rRNA and mcrA gene transcripts (105 to 109 copies g-1 ). We showed that methanogen abundance and activity were significantly reduced with increasing concentrations of Pb and Cd, two indicators of airborne metal contaminations. Considering the ecological importance of methanogenesis in sediment habitats, these metal contaminations may have system wide implications even in remote area such as alpine lakes. Overall, this work was pioneer in integrating the effect of long-range atmospheric depositions on archaeal communities and indicated that metal contamination might significantly compromise the contribution of Archaea to the carbon cycling of the mountain lake sediments.

The Mandrillus Face Database: A portrait image database for individual and sex recognition, and age prediction in a non-human primate.

The Mandrillus Project is a long-term field research project in ecology and evolutionary biology, monitoring, since 2012, a natural population of mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx; primate) located in Southern Gabon. The Mandrillus Face Database was launched at the beginning of the project and now contains 29,495 photographic portraits collected on 397 individuals from this population, from birth to death for some of them. Portrait images have been obtained by manually processing images taken in the field with DSLR cameras: faces have been cropped to remove the ears and rotated to align the eyes horizontally. The database provides portrait images resized to 224 × 224 pixels associated with several manually annotated labels: individual identity, sex, age, face view, and image quality. Labels are stored within the image metadata and in a table accompanying the image database. This database will allow training and comparing methods on individual and sex recognition, and age prediction in a non-human animal.

Identifying macroplastic pathobiomes and antibiotic resistance in a subtropical fish farm.

Macroplastics are ubiquitous in aquaculture ecosystems. However, to date the potential role of plastics as a support for bacterial biofilm that can include potential human pathogenic bacteria (PHPB) and antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) has been largely overlooked. In this study, we used a combination of metabarcoding and standard antibiotic susceptibility testing to study the pathobiome and resistome of macroplastics, fish guts and the environment in a marine aquaculture farm in Mauritius. Aquaculture macroplastics were found to be higher in PHPB, dominated by the Vibrionaceae family (0.34 % of the total community), compared with environmental samples. Moreover, isolates from aquaculture plastics showed higher significant multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR) compared to non-plastic samples of seawater, sediment and fish guts. These results suggest that plastics act as a reservoir and fomite of PHPB and ARB in aquaculture, potentially threatening the health of farmed fish and human consumers.