Patient preferences for the chemoprevention of colorectal cancer.

Although evidence suggests that aspirin and celecoxib may reduce the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), these drugs can also cause harmful side effects. The aim of this study was to characterize patient preferences for celecoxib and aspirin. Participants completed a computer-based patient decision-making questionnaire that included an educational component outlining the benefits and harms of celecoxib and aspirin. Under the base conditions 7.4% would take celecoxib and 43.6% would take aspirin; males were more willing than females to take aspirin. Patients identified the increased risk of myocardial infarction and gastrointestinal events as the primary reasons for their unwillingness to take celecoxib and aspirin, respectively. A majority of subjects would not take either drug, after considering their benefits and harms, although participants were almost six times more likely to take aspirin than celecoxib. These data serve to inform physicians and researchers regarding the variability and factors that affect patient preferences for CRC chemoprevention.

Development, calibration, and validation of a U.S. white male population-based simulation model of esophageal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has risen rapidly in the U.S. and western world. The aim of the study was to begin the investigation of this rapid rise by developing, calibrating, and validating a mathematical disease simulation model of EAC using available epidemiologic data. METHODS: The model represents the natural history of EAC, including the essential biologic health states from normal mucosa to detected cancer. Progression rates between health states were estimated via calibration, which identified distinct parameter sets producing model outputs that fit epidemiologic data; specifically, the prevalence of pre-cancerous lesions and EAC cancer incidence from the published literature and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. As an illustrative example of a clinical and policy application, the calibrated and validated model retrospectively analyzed the potential benefit of an aspirin chemoprevention program. RESULTS: Model outcomes approximated calibration targets; results of the model's fit and validation are presented. Approximately 7,000 cases of EAC could have been prevented over a 30-year period if all white males started aspirin chemoprevention at age 40 in 1965. CONCLUSIONS: The model serves as the foundation for future analyses to determine a cost-effective screening and management strategy to prevent EAC morbidity and mortality.