The Natural History of Asymptomatic Gallstones: A Longitudinal Study and Prediction Model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Despite the high prevalence of asymptomatic gallstones (AGs), there are limited data on their natural history. We aimed to determine the rate of symptom development in a contemporary population, determine factors associated with progression to symptomatic gallstones (SGs), and develop a clinical prediction model. METHODS: We used a retrospective cohort design. The time to first SG was shown using Kaplan-Meier curves. Multivariable competing risk (death) regression analysis was used to identify variables associated with SGs. A prediction model for the development of SGs after 10 years was generated and calibration curves were plotted. Participants were patients with AGs based on ultrasound or computed tomography from the general medical population. RESULTS: From 1996 to 2016, 22,257 patients (51% female) with AGs were identified; 14.5% developed SG with a median follow-up period of 4.6 years. The cumulative incidence was 10.1% (±0.22%) at 5 years, 21.5% (±0.39%) at 10 years, and 32.6% (±0.83%) at 15 years. In a multivariable model, the strongest predictors of developing SGs were female gender (hazard ratio [HR], 1.50; 95% CI, 1.39-1.61), younger age (HR per 5 years, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.14-1.16), multiple stones (HR, 2.42; 95% CI, 2.25-2.61), gallbladder polyps (HR, 2.55; 95% CI, 2.14-3.05), large stones (HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.80-2.29), and chronic hemolytic anemia (HR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.33-2.72). The model showed good discrimination (C-statistic, 0.70) and calibration. CONCLUSIONS: In general medical patients with AGs, symptoms developed at approximately 2% per year. A predictive model with good calibration could be used to inform patients of their risk of SGs.

Application of optical character recognition with natural language processing for large-scale quality metric data extraction in colonoscopy reports.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Colonoscopy is commonly performed for colorectal cancer screening in the United States. Reports are often generated in a non-standardized format and are not always integrated into electronic health records. Thus, this information is not readily available for streamlining quality management, participating in endoscopy registries, or reporting of patient- and center-specific risk factors predictive of outcomes. We aim to demonstrate the use of a new hybrid approach using natural language processing of charts that have been elucidated with optical character recognition processing (OCR/NLP hybrid) to obtain relevant clinical information from scanned colonoscopy and pathology reports, a technology co-developed by Cleveland Clinic and eHealth Technologies (West Henrietta, NY, USA). METHODS: This was a retrospective study conducted at Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio, and the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota. A randomly sampled list of outpatient screening colonoscopy procedures and pathology reports was selected. Desired variables were then collected. Two researchers first manually reviewed the reports for the desired variables. Then, the OCR/NLP algorithm was used to obtain the same variables from 3 electronic health records in use at our institution: Epic (Verona, Wisc, USA), ProVation (Minneapolis, Minn, USA) used for endoscopy reporting, and Sunquest PowerPath (Tucson, Ariz, USA) used for pathology reporting. RESULTS: Compared with manual data extraction, the accuracy of the hybrid OCR/NLP approach to detect polyps was 95.8%, adenomas 98.5%, sessile serrated polyps 99.3%, advanced adenomas 98%, inadequate bowel preparation 98.4%, and failed cecal intubation 99%. Comparison of the dataset collected via NLP alone with that collected using the hybrid OCR/NLP approach showed that the accuracy for almost all variables was >99%. CONCLUSIONS: Our study is the first to validate the use of a unique hybrid OCR/NLP technology to extract desired variables from scanned procedure and pathology reports contained in image format with an accuracy >95%.

Pre-operative opioid analgesia reduces clinical success of laparoscopic gastric electrical stimulation placement in patients with gastroparesis.

INTRODUCTION: Gastroparesis is a common chronic and costly disorder for which medical therapy is often unsuccessful. Gastric electrical stimulation (GES) has been used to treat refractory cases, however, response is variable and difficult to predict. This study aims to assess whether pre-operative opioid analgesics (OA) use affects clinical success of GES. METHODS: Records of 128 patients who underwent laparoscopic GES placement from March 2001 to September 2012 were analyzed retrospectively. Data collected included demographics, surgical outcomes, and clinical parameters. Pre- and post-operative opioid analgesic dosing (No = 0 morphine equivalents (ME)/day, Low = 0-40 ME/day, Mid = 41-80 ME/day, High >80 ME/day), as well as clinical symptom assessment was collected for up to 3 years post-operatively. Clinical success was defined as (1) OA reduction of >50 %, (2) maintenance of weight, or (3) symptom improvement. Descriptive statistics were computed for all factors. A p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Fifty-three patients were on OA pre-operatively compared to 69 patients who were not. Patients not on OA pre-operatively were less likely than those on OA pre-op group to be on OA post-operatively (p = 0.005); however, there were no differences in weight or symptom improvement. Sub-group analysis of the 53 patients on OA demonstrated significant improvement in clinical symptoms in the low-morphine cohort compared to the mid-morphine cohort (p = 0.02), and OA dosing post-operatively in the low-morphine cohort diminished significantly compared to mid- and high-morphine cohort (p = 0.032). There was no significant difference in weight. CONCLUSION: OA dosing pre-operatively significantly affects clinical success of GES placement. Criteria for offering GES implantation may need to take OA dosing into consideration.

Hospital readmissions in patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify the frequency and costs of, and the disease predictors and inpatient process issues that may predispose to, 30-day readmission for an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patient. METHODS: IBD patients admitted to an inpatient gastroenterology service were followed for a time-to-readmission analysis assessing factors associated with readmission within 30 days. RESULTS: Index admissions were more costly among those readmitted than among those not readmitted. Patients admitted with evidence of increased inflammation, infection, or obstruction or for dehydration or pain control had a higher risk of readmission. Patients treated with opioid analgesia during index admission were no less likely to be readmitted, and there was a 2.2-fold increase in readmissions when patients were discharged with no opioid analgesia. Scheduling variability and outpatient follow-up compliance were associated with readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Predicting readmission is complex. A predictive model developed to be used at discharge yielded an area under the curve of 0.757.

Dialysis costs for a health system participating in value-based care.

OBJECTIVES: Unplanned "crash" dialysis starts are associated with worse outcomes and higher costs, a challenging problem for health systems participating in value-based care (VBC). We examined expenditures and utilization associated with these events in a large health system. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective, single-center study at Cleveland Clinic, a large, integrated health system participating in VBC contracts, including a Medicare accountable care organization. METHODS: We analyzed beneficiaries who transitioned to dialysis between 2017 and 2020. Crash starts involved initiating inpatient hemodialysis (HD) with a central venous catheter (CVC). Optimal starts were initiated with either home dialysis or outpatient HD without a CVC. Suboptimal starts were initiated with outpatient HD with a CVC or inpatient HD without a CVC. RESULTS: A total of 495 patients initiated chronic dialysis: 260 crash starts, 130 optimal starts, and 105 suboptimal starts. Median predialysis 12-month cost was $67,059 for crash starts, $17,891 for optimal starts, and $7633 for suboptimal starts (P < .001). Median postdialysis 12-month cost was $71,992 for crash starts, $55,427 for optimal starts, and $72,032 for suboptimal starts (P = .001). Predialysis inpatient admission per 1000 beneficiaries was 1236 per 1000 for crash starts vs 273 per 1000 for optimal starts and 170 per 1000 for suboptimal starts (P < .001). Postdialysis inpatient admission for crash starts was 853 per 1000 vs 291 per 1000 for optimal starts and 184 per 1000 for suboptimal starts (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In a major health system, crash starts demonstrated the highest cost and hospital utilization, a pattern that persisted after dialysis initiation. Developing strategies to promote optimal starts will improve VBC contract performance.

Differential epidural block predicts the success of visceral block in patients with chronic visceral abdominal pain.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Differential thoracic epidural regional block, also known as a differential neural block (DNB), involves the placement of an epidural catheter placed in the thoracic epidural space to achieve appropriate anesthesia in a dermatomal distribution. This is a retrospective case series evaluating how well a DNB may predict success of subsequent visceral blockade in patients with chronic abdominal pain of visceral origin. METHODS: Of 402 patients who had a DNB performed for unexplained abdominal pain from January 2000 to January 2009, 81 patients were found to have results consistent with visceral pain and thus underwent subsequent visceral blockade. Basic demographic data, years of chronic pain, history of psychosocial issues, initial visual analog scale (VAS) pain score, pain location, and medication usage were documented in our electronic medical record database. Parameters regarding DNB and visceral blocks also were documented. Descriptive statistics were computed for all variables. The positive predictive value (PPV) for DNB for whom visceral block was successful (at least a 50% reduction in VAS) was calculated. Additionally, subjects with successful visceral blocks were compared to those with unsuccessful visceral blocks. PARTICIPANTS: All patients with chronic abdominal pain with normal gastrointestinal studies who underwent DNB. SETTING: Tertiary Outpatient Pain Management Clinic. DESIGN: Retrospective Cohort Study. RESULTS: Mean age of patients was 46 (± 15) years, 73% were female, and median duration of pain was 5 years. 67% of subjects were taking opioid analgesics. PPV of DNB was 70.4%. Only factor found to be statistically significant with visceral block success was baseline VAS with higher scores associated with DNB predictive success (6.8 ± 1.7 vs. 5.5, 1.8; P = 0.004). Use of membrane stabilizing medications was significantly more common in subjects for whom visceral block was not successful (46% vs. 25%; P = 0.058). Area underneath curve (AUC) for VAS was found to be 0.70 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.82), which signifies fair discrimination. CONCLUSION: Differential neural block is fairly predictive of subsequent visceral block success in patients with chronic abdominal pain of visceral origin. An initial VAS ≥ 5 provides a sensitivity of 93%, which implies that VAS < 5 may predict unsuccessful visceral block. Contrarily, a value of ≥ 8 would provide a specificity of 92% and may be used to predict success of subsequent visceral block.

Resuming Anticoagulation following Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding among Patients with Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation-A Microsimulation Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) who have sustained an upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB), the benefits and harms of oral anticoagulation change over time. Early resumption of anticoagulation increases recurrent bleeding, while delayed resumption exposes patients to a higher risk of ischemic stroke. We therefore set out to estimate the expected benefit of resuming anticoagulation as a function of time after UGIB among patients with NVAF. METHODS: We created a decision-analytic model estimating discounted quality-adjusted life-years when patients with NVAF resume anticoagulation on each day following UGIB. We simulated from a health system perspective over a lifelong time horizon. RESULTS: Peak utility for warfarin was achieved by resumption 41 days after hemostasis from the index UGIB. Resumption between days 32 and 51 produced greater than 99.9% of the peak utility. Peak utility for apixaban was achieved by resumption 32 days after the index UGIB. Resumption between days 21 and 47 produced greater than 99.9% of the peak utility. Of input parameters, results were most sensitive to underlying stroke risk. Specifically, across the range of CHA2DS2-Vasc scores, the optimal day of resumption varied by around 11 days for patients resuming warfarin and by around 15 days for patients resuming apixaban. Results were less sensitive to underlying risk of rebleeding. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with NVAF following UGIB, warfarin is optimally restarted approximately six weeks following hemostasis, and apixaban is optimally restarted approximately one month following hemostasis. Modest changes to this timing based on probability of thromboembolic stroke are reasonable.

Value-Based Health Care in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic inflammatory disease associated with significant resource utilization and health care burden. It is emerging as a global disease affecting an increasing proportion of the population. Along with evolving epidemiological trends, the paradigm of managing IBD has also changed. With a burgeoning repertoire of therapeutic options, improved use of health informatics, and emphasis on health care value, the treatment paradigm for IBD has experienced seismic shifts. In this review, we focused on value-based health care (VBHC)-a health care model that emphasizes monitoring outcomes to emphasize patient-centered, cost-effective IBD patient care. Several quality initiatives have been developed worldwide, and successful models of care were created for proper implementation of these initiatives. Although there are significant challenges to scale these models to a national level, it is still possible to successfully implement VBHC models within health systems to improve the quality of care provided to patients with IBD.

Modifiable Factors Associated with Quality of Bowel Preparation Among Hospitalized Patients Undergoing Colonoscopy.

INTRODUCTION: Inadequate bowel preparation (IBP) is a common problem in hospitalized patients; however, little is known about how to prevent IBP. In a large, multihospital system, we evaluated the association between modifiable factors and IBP rate. METHODS: We reviewed data from adult (≥18 years) inpatients undergoing colonoscopy between January 2011 and June 2017. Colonoscopies performed in the intensive care unit or lacking descriptions of bowel preparation quality were excluded. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with IBP. A counterfactual analysis was performed to assess the potential contribution of modifiable factors to IBP. RESULTS: Of 8,819 patients that were included (median age of 64 years; 50.5% female), 51% had IBP. Patients with IBP stayed in the hospital one day longer than those with adequate bowel preparation (P < .001). Modifiable factors associated with IBP include opiate use within three days of colonoscopy (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.18, 1.45), colonoscopy performed after 12:00 pm (OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.1, 1.41), and solid diet the day before colonoscopy (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.18, 1.59). In the counterfactual analysis, if all patients avoided these three conditions, adjusted IBP rates were reduced by 5.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Among hospitalized patients undergoing colonoscopy, IBP rates are high and associated with an increased length of stay. Avoiding opiates before colonoscopy, performing colonoscopy before noon, and maintaining patients on a liquid diet or nil per os might significantly reduce IBP rates.